slivertongue:


How many times did GMB try?

phelps007:

The likes of Moghalu wont even get the up to the number of votes required especially up north. Baba garnered 21,886 nationwide during the last presidential election. Infact Fela Durotoye polled 16,779.

JaroMan:

If APC gives Tinubu the ticket(which I doubt), and PDP gives to north (which I also doubt), PDP will win fair and square.
The north is prepared for a slip in South. They are mobilizing seriously and if the South fails to agree on SE, it will happen.
SE might not vote; yes. South South will go to PDP especially with Udom or Okowa as VP. Wike can't be VP. He doesn't have that mien. OBJ made that mistake with Atiku, no one wants to repeat it.
Apart from Nasarawa and Kwara in NC, APC will struggle there.
NW will vote a northern candidate. It's sacrosanct. Kebbi, Jigawa, Kaduna, Sokoto, Zamfara and 40% of Kano will give PDP victory there.
NE will ostracize anyone that works against their chance to be president.
So a closer observer will tell you this.

DubaiLandLord2:
How many times did OBJ try?

JaroMan:

If APC gives Tinubu the ticket(which I doubt), and PDP gives to north (which I also doubt), PDP will win fair and square.
The north is prepared for a slip in South. They are mobilizing seriously and if the South fails to agree on SE, it will happen.
SE might not vote; yes. South South will go to PDP especially with Udom or Okowa as VP. Wike can't be VP. He doesn't have that mien. OBJ made that mistake with Atiku, no one wants to repeat it.
Apart from Nasarawa and Kwara in NC, APC will struggle there.
NW will vote a northern candidate. It's sacrosanct. Kebbi, Jigawa, Kaduna, Sokoto, Zamfara and 40% of Kano will give PDP victory there.
NE will ostracize anyone that works against their chance to be president.
So a closer observer will tell you this.

JaroMan:

Who told you Wike controls PDP? Wike can't even control South South PDP. Is he more influential than Peter Odili? But we know how it ended.
If the retired Generals decide where power goes, nobody will even consult Wike if Rivers money is to be used.

doctokwus:

Don't be surprised to see Benue going to APC.Those are unpredictable lots.Niger State governor has backed Tinubu already.Kogi's margin maybe inconsequential or d governor even backs Tinubu if he gets reassurances.
Turnout in Katsina/Bauchi maynot be that substantial because there is no Buhari they would rig the elections for;even if it turnout is substantial the margin of victory maynot be that substantial for either candidate in 2023.
Your other assertions are also up for debate.

JaroMan:

One factor you can't rule out is religion.
A Muslim South with a Muslim north is risky.
A Muslim South with a Christian north is risky.
These are entrenched sentiments that must not be wished away.
The 2nd term governors can't be trusted especially those that came in through Buhari. Except the assurance are Germaine, I don't see Tinubu beating any northerner

slivertongue:



Well you are entitled to your opinion.


The next election wud be won &lost in the South cos their disunity is what the North is counting on. For empirical evidence use 2019 elections results to do you projections. Tinubu no doubt is popular but beat Atiku in the North is an assumption that is forgivable. The South accused the North of born to rule mentality so what is happening in the South is a testimony that every section loves power. SW had 8years, SS 4years, NW wud be 12 years after 2023. what about NC, NE & SE? The North divided South & got power they will do same again. They sowed rebellion in PDP, they have gradually started in APC pending 2023. All the happens in APC are the landmines waiting to go up. Don't under rate any region the stakes are higher now

doctokwus:

Please I am not a Tinubu advocate.
This is an analysis of the current position of things as I see it.
For me an Osinbajo,Umahi or Anyim would be preferable and a breath of fresh air,but you are looking at a candidate with a heavy war chest and some governors that don't give account to anyone & ready to spend their state treasury, already lining up behind him.
Take an eg,a simple arithmetic of the new ₦800 daily bus levy in Lagos: assuming there are 100k buses per day.A day gives ₦80m.Monthly gives ₦2.4billion!
From now till end of 2022 makes ₦24b!!
If Lagos State turns over that entire 24b to Tinubu,that maybe more than enough to buy him the delegates needed for the primary election and ₦10k to each electorate to buy 2million votes with the present poverty level in Lagos State!!!

fyneguy:


Lol if you think Tinubu is still looking for money to prosecute his Presidential project, then you don't know him.

Tinubu is the one funding APC in PDP-cobtrolled states. Do the maths lol

fyneguy:


Should their elites queue behind Tinubu, he will defeat PDP.

fyneguy:


The North is actually more politically sophisticated than the South.

MKO Abiola defeated Tofa in many northern states. The Northern political trajectory is largely influenced by their leaders/elites. Buhari and Kwankwanso are the only ones who have direct access to the commoners up there. Should their elites queue behind Tinubu, he will defeat PDP.

slivertongue:





First it's about party then individuals. Atiku has tested the waters and each time he gets better. Asiwaju hasn't and can't &won't arrogate that to himself. I call kwara for Tinubu. What happened to GMB/APC in FCT in 2019? What was Atiku/PDP score in Benue, Taraba & Nasarawa states in 2019? APC &PDP are bigger than the two. Same as Nigeria

fyneguy:



Tinubu is the one funding APC in PDP-cobtrolled states. Do the maths lol

fyneguy:


The North is actually more politically sophisticated than the South.

MKO Abiola defeated Tofa in many northern states. The Northern political trajectory is largely influenced by their leaders/elites. Buhari and Kwankwanso are the only ones who have direct access to the commoners up there. Should their elites queue behind Tinubu, he will defeat PDP.

slivertongue:



hmmm all this Superman traits.

Delta, Ak, Rivers, bayelsa ain't in this club I even doubt Adamawa, Benue & Bauchi. These states have folks with mega cash who don't talk. If Amaechi could dole out over a 100 billion to APC what makes the state dependent on Asiwaju

slivertongue:



Buhari is a religions leader backed by powerful Islamic clerics. Without them he is a nobody. Kwankwaso is sure popular but without political position he can do very little. Northern politics is built on religion &tribe. Buhari is still in the good books of these clerics but politically they are done with him, some boldly preach against his failed governance process. Most southerners over inflate the importance of individuals. Even Atiku who is one of the most influential here can't make
such claims of having the North in his palms cos he knows how the people roll

YellowMayor:



Amaechi can never single handedly donate 100 billion to APC. There has to be someone or group of people behind the scenes.

princdebola201:
bro you don't know how politics work in nigeria
If you like test water or mpkurumiri 100 times if your party dont have a strong political structure you will keep loosing.

Gej and yardua presidency was easy because they inheritted formidable political structure and power of incumbency.

You guys actually overate atiku so much. Atiku never had or built any political structure all his life apart from jumping from one political party to another with his bag of dollars.

He had no input in pdp 2019 performance apart from money. He lost his polling unit and region woefully.
70% of his votes came from pdp stronghold SS/SE.

Without Atiku pdp will still poll over 10million votes in 2019. Infact kwankaso or Tambuwal would have better atiku performance in Core north

slivertongue:


Well read about Atiku before making statements that are not totally correct same too to other personalities. In a bid for the South to occupy the villa they are making all manner of contentious statements. Atiku stood toe to toe with Abiola in 1993 &Abiola won. he refused to accept VP & refused to work for Abiola until his political boss Shehu Yar'adua called him to order. Yar'adua, Atiku, Kingibe &Pascal Bafau formal NLC president did the ground work of Hope93 in the North with Zwingina leading the charge. Obj didn't pick him for nothing, but his tendencies caught up with him. Obj simply bought over Atiku's allies with contracts &positions but guess what the same people are back on the same page. No permanent friends &no permanent enemies in politics.
Tinubu can't under rate the man he said encouraged him into politics, Asiwaju can't under rate a man people say threw dollars at delegates in 2015. Atiku's problem i once said on this forum is his drifting towards feudalism. He raised many politicians &public office holders who later choose their own path but are respectful of his person. Ribadu, Elrufia etc are examples.

If you claim 70% of the votes for Turaki came from SS & SE. Please table the evidence.

Yar'adua was a sitting governor &d darling of a sitting president. Delta & Bayelsa states resources largely funded the election. Gej enjoyed same grace until rebellion was sowed into the party by d 'comptrollers' of Nigeria.

slivertongue:


Well read about Atiku before making statements that are not totally correct same too to other personalities. In a bid for the South to occupy the villa they are making all manner of contentious statements. Atiku stood toe to toe with Abiola in 1993 &Abiola won. he refused to accept VP & refused to work for Abiola until his political boss Shehu Yar'adua called him to order. Yar'adua, Atiku, Kingibe &Pascal Bafau formal NLC president did the ground work of Hope93 in the North with Zwingina leading the charge. Obj didn't pick him for nothing, but his tendencies caught up with him. Obj simply bought over Atiku's allies with contracts &positions but guess what the same people are back on the same page. No permanent friends &no permanent enemies in politics.
Tinubu can't under rate the man he said encouraged him into politics, Asiwaju can't under rate a man people say threw dollars at delegates in 2015. Atiku's problem i once said on this forum is his drifting towards feudalism. He raised many politicians &public office holders who later choose their own path but are respectful of his person. Ribadu, Elrufia etc are examples.

If you claim 70% of the votes for Turaki came from SS & SE. Please table the evidence.

Yar'adua was a sitting governor &d darling of a sitting president. Delta & Bayelsa states resources largely funded the election. Gej enjoyed same grace until rebellion was sowed into the party by d 'comptrollers' of Nigeria.

slivertongue:


Well read about Atiku before making statements that are not totally correct same too to other personalities. In a bid for the South to occupy the villa they are making all manner of contentious statements. Atiku stood toe to toe with Abiola in 1993 &Abiola won. he refused to accept VP & refused to work for Abiola until his political boss Shehu Yar'adua called him to order. Yar'adua, Atiku, Kingibe &Pascal Bafau formal NLC president did the ground work of Hope93 in the North with Zwingina leading the charge. Obj didn't pick him for nothing, but his tendencies caught up with him. Obj simply bought over Atiku's allies with contracts &positions but guess what the same people are back on the same page. No permanent friends &no permanent enemies in politics.
Tinubu can't under rate the man he said encouraged him into politics, Asiwaju can't under rate a man people say threw dollars at delegates in 2015. Atiku's problem i once said on this forum is his drifting towards feudalism. He raised many politicians &public office holders who later choose their own path but are respectful of his person. Ribadu, Elrufia etc are examples.

If you claim 70% of the votes for Turaki came from SS & SE. Please table the evidence.

Yar'adua was a sitting governor &d darling of a sitting president. Delta & Bayelsa states resources largely funded the election. Gej enjoyed same grace until rebellion was sowed into the party by d 'comptrollers' of Nigeria.

slivertongue:



hmmm all this Superman traits.

Delta, Ak, Rivers, bayelsa ain't in this club I even doubt Adamawa, Benue & Bauchi. These states have folks with mega cash who don't talk. If Amaechi could dole out over a 100 billion to APC what makes the state dependent on Asiwaju

Echoban:


The way some of u just call billions self.

Come how much is Total worth of Rivers state that Amaexhi a state Gov will be drilling out 100Bill

michlins:
Do your calculations and analysis, but I will vote for the worst Southern candidate before I will allow North to get my vote.

If we make the mistake of them retaining power, the South might not smell it again ever

YellowMayor:



He's even a minister, no longer a governor in the last general election. 100Billion not possible from a minister. Even from a juicy ministry.

doctokwus:

So means with 5k Lagos State may guarantee him 3-5million votes.
A margin of even 2million from Lagos alone maybe impossible to beat,bearing in mind Kano is not just an APC state,but that the present governor is not only sympathetic to the Tinubu cause,for obvious selfish reasons,but is also one that has shown a tendency to use state treasury to advance personal goals.