doctokwus:

I also don't see an Atiku getting the ticket this time.
I have this inkling the PDP may wait and if it sees the APC giving the ticket to a Southerner,may follow suit.

PDP thirst to quickly return to the power in 2023 will finally bury the party.
They want to gamble with a northerner ticket when the whole country is clamouring for southern presidency.
The have penchant for swimming against tide. The same mistake they made in 2015.

PDP have power rotation between North and south in their constitution

maestroferddi:


Tinubu's action will play into the hands of the north...Noone needs to be clairvoyant to predict that Tinubu or indeed any Southerner will be beaten by a northern candidate from any of the two major parties.

Northern politicians are working on giving tinubu the apc ticket.
They will then vote for a northern pdp candidate.

princdebola201:
Ayu ayu is more like a temporary chairman. Dont forget he emerge as a consesus candidate by pdp govs. He wasnt elected on balot.

the incumbent chairman is the deputy chairman south( Arapaja) seyi makinde candidate. Once pdp gov preferred candidate emerge from North arapaja will take over from Ayu.

Ayu signed an agreement to step aside once a northerner emerges as pdp flagbearer.
https://www.newtelegraphng.com/pdp-chairmanship-ayu-agrees-to-resign-if-north-produces-presidential-candidate/

So literally ayu is just a figure head chairman

From one speculation to another. A deputy is the chairman when there is a substantivechairman. Consensus &election are modes of choosing a leader. That the PDP governors agreed on one man means they trust in his ability & judgment. You previously held that the 'comptrollers' men were removed from the party in the last convention &I intimated you that Ayu is an ally of Atiku, a personal friend I gathered. A man who has seen it though not all. The SW deserves to lead the PDP but was schemed out cos they are mainly with the APC. Giving the SW the party would be handing the party to the APC. Most PDP members in the SW sold out in 2015. Handing the party to NC is a strategic return to pre 1999 politicking. The party in NC targets a return to pre 2015 &not some abstract positioning. The Arapaja tale is a consolation story built on probability. If Arapaja is good enough why didn't Makinde insist he leads the party? The mainstay of PDP are NC, SS, SE &NE so the leadership rotates thus. The P & VP wud also come from amongst the above.
Your interventions shows you are scared of the PDP. Even when Turaki is yet to throw his heart into the ring you are scared but PDP can throw up any person of choice. Nothing stops the governors from choosing someone from the North or South who will go ahead and win the election.

doctokwus:

Is their alliance still that strong to stand d test of time and valgaries of Nigerian politics?

I can't truly say yes in the real sense of the word. Ayu was sold to the South as a principled person, an old war horse &a Christian from the North by the North. It's a game, Ayu is another Tom Ikimi more straight forward than Chief Tom. They started out in the PDP left for acn but returned to the PDP cos the acn was about a personality. The fight with secondus was well dramatized to give the party chair to the NC under the guise that the presidential ticket wud go south. Am sure you know the current state of things in the PDP

tit:


Northern politicians are working on giving tinubu the apc ticket.
They will then vote for a northern pdp candidate.

Its a game of tricks. Support someone from the south to the presidency, ally with his rivals because of the desire to be VP. When that failed, starts shuttling to be president in the name of southern president after working against someone from the region claiming some mundane values. The North wants to exploit the disunity in the South to hold on to power. Tinubu may not get the required votes outside SW, NC & NE ain't gonna turn up much. I don't know what his chances are in SE & SS but they ain't looking bright either. NW wud do him some good.

princdebola201:
PDP thirst to quickly return to the power in 2023 will finally bury the party.
They want to gamble with a northerner ticket when the whole country is clamouring for southern presidency.
The have penchant for swimming against tide. The same mistake they made in 2015.

PDP have power rotation between North and south in their constitution

Every geopolitical zone has capable hands to lead Nigeria. Rotation is good but APC boldly told Nigerians that rotation is the character of PDP &not the APC. We want the best hand to be recruited as president. Buhari was a mistake that shouldn't have happened & shouldn't be repeated using regional sentiments. PDP ain't dying anytime soon.

Maduawuchukwu:


. Since 1993

Sdp days

doctokwus:

I also don't see an Atiku getting the ticket this time.
I have this inkling the PDP may wait and if it sees the APC giving the ticket to a Southerner,may follow suit.

Not as easy that oo. Yes PDP may take dressing from APC but going south is a dicey one. The ticket goes North based on my earlier state events within the party. Only the North can let go peacefully meaning they will wholeheartedly work the standard bearer from the south. But imposition will sure lead to defeat. PDP knows the mood in the country. APC has failed but Buhari is still loved but won't be followed politically as much as in the past. Here the feeling is if he failed to improve the economy & security is it his hand picked that wud do better. APC's hope lay in the 'Buhari effect' and PDP's is built on the rebellion of the talakawas. APC's hope is truly slim in the North. With Atiku as candidate it cud worsen things for them. He was once with them & almost took out an incumbent from the same region. Any slip in the South gives it to any candidate that emerges from the North or even a preferred from the south

slivertongue:


From one speculation to another. A deputy is the chairman when there is a substantivechairman. Consensus &election are modes of choosing a leader. That the PDP governors agreed on one man means they trust in his ability & judgment. You previously held that the 'comptrollers' men were removed from the party in the last convention &I intimated you that Ayu is an ally of Atiku, a personal friend I gathered. A man who has seen it though not all. The SW deserves to lead the PDP but was schemed out cos they are mainly with the APC. Giving the SW the party would be handing the party to the APC. Most PDP members in the SW sold out in 2015. Handing the party to NC is a strategic return to pre 1999 politicking. The party in NC targets a return to pre 2015 &not some abstract positioning. The Arapaja tale is a consolation story built on probability. If Arapaja is good enough why didn't Makinde insist he leads the party? The mainstay of PDP are NC, SS, SE &NE so the leadership rotates thus. The P & VP wud also come from amongst the above.
Your interventions shows you are scared of the PDP. Even when Turaki is yet to throw his heart into the ring you are scared but PDP can throw up any person of choice. Nothing stops the governors from choosing someone from the North or South who will go ahead and win the election.

i'm only telling you events that will likely shape the decision of PDP.

Ayu (pdp interim chairman) emergence is just a strategy by PDP govs to know Apc game plan, that's why a clause was inserted in Ayu position.. Ayu can retain his position if PDP govs settle for a southern candidate, which is unlikely.

Scared of PDP pdp aint coming back to power soon irrespective of whoever their candidate is.
Infact Apc primary is where the real battle is. Anybody that wins with the blessing of Buhari will inheritted his 12million votes incuding power of incumbency.

But there re decisions that might likely kill the party which is what i'm analysing.
PDP northern candidate will cause voter Apathy among southerners and middle belt.

There is an article that already forecast this here
https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2021/09/06/why-pdp-may-lose-all-southern-states-if-it-zones-presidency-to-north/

The truth is pdp is still weak in North central and core North.
A northern candidate cant perform any miracle to change the tide.

slivertongue:


Not as easy that oo. Yes PDP may take dressing from APC but going south is a dicey one. The ticket goes North based on my earlier state events within the party. Only the North can let go peacefully meaning they will wholeheartedly work the standard bearer from the south. But imposition will sure lead to defeat. PDP knows the mood in the country. APC has failed but Buhari is still loved but won't be followed politically as much as in the past. Here the feeling is if he failed to improve the economy & security is it his hand picked that wud do better. APC's hope lay in the 'Buhari effect' and PDP's is built on the rebellion of the talakawas. APC's hope is truly slim in the North. With Atiku as candidate it cud worsen things for them. He was once with them & almost took out an incumbent from the same region. Any slip in the South gives it to any candidate that emerges from the North or even a preferred from the south

politics doesnt work that way. I guess you pdp apologist have same fantasy of pdp northern candidate defeating APC southern candidate when verifiable statistics says otherwise.

In the history of nigeria election , southerners have edge over northerners when the face off in general election

Nnamdi azikwe defeated ahmadu bello
Mko abiola defeated tofa
Obasanjo defeated buhari
Gej defeated buhari

PARTY POLITICAL STRUCTURE, AND MACHINERY IS WHAT DECIDE ELECTIONS.

Not that fantasies of a northern candidate blablabla in PDP foot soilders head.

APC HAS THE FORMIDABLE POLITICAL STRUCTURE ,MACHINERY AND POWER OF INCUMBENCY WITH BUHARI CULT FOLLOWERS

Like i said pdp don't stand a chance even with any northern candidate.

princdebola201:
politics doesnt work that way. I guess you pdp apologist have same fantasy of pdp northern candidate defeating APC southern candidate when verifiable statistics says otherwise.

In the history of nigeria election , southerners have edge over northerners when the face off in general election

Nnamdi azikwe defeated ahmadu bello
Mko abiola defeated tofa
Obasanjo defeated buhari
Gej defeated buhari

PARTY POLITICAL STRUCTURE, AND MACHINERY IS WHAT DECIDE ELECTIONS.

Not that fantasies of a northern candidate blablabla in PDP foot soilders head.

APC HAS THE FORMIDABLE POLITICAL STRUCTURE ,MACHINERY AND POWER OF INCUMBENCY WITH BUHARI CULT FOLLOWERS

Like i said pdp don't stand a chance even with any northern candidate.

Your views are puerile, I have to say...

Are you speaking on realities on ground or ventilating ridiculous fantasies?

Buhari will bequeath 12 million votes? Like the votes are goods kept in a warehouse for him to hand over to an APC flagbearer at election time?

Consider the above, does it reflect rationality?

Buhari is an unmitigated failure..Even northerners say it without reservations.

Most of his loyalists in 2015 and 2019 will vote against him were he to be on the ballot in the future.

Political analysis should be about empirical facts and not an indulgence in speculative fantasy.

Thoughtless remarks keep sprouting about the weakness of PDP but Buhari, who should know better, recently warned that PDP is poised to regain power.

2023 is PDP's game to lose... every APC leader knows this ...

princdebola201:
politics doesnt work that way. I guess you pdp apologist have same fantasy of pdp northern candidate defeating APC southern candidate when verifiable statistics says otherwise.

In the history of nigeria election , southerners have edge over northerners when the face off in general election

Nnamdi azikwe defeated ahmadu bello
Mko abiola defeated tofa
Obasanjo defeated buhari
Gej defeated buhari

PARTY POLITICAL STRUCTURE, AND MACHINERY IS WHAT DECIDE ELECTIONS.

Not that fantasies of a northern candidate blablabla in PDP foot soilders head.

APC HAS THE FORMIDABLE POLITICAL STRUCTURE ,MACHINERY AND POWER OF INCUMBENCY WITH BUHARI CULT FOLLOWERS

Like i said pdp don't stand a chance even with any northern candidate.

It is possible for APC to lose 2023 election, and one major factor that could lead to that defeat is the rumour of fuel increase, even if lazy PDP fail to lash on that opportunity, the masses would take it upon themselves and punish APC if government dare increase pump price before election

The discussion so far has not properly emphasised vote apathy which could affect success of a southern candidate. The awareness about self determination across southern nation has gained huge diehard followership especially in SE and SW and the continue detention of the principal actors in the person of MNK and Igboho would further reduce voting turnout

It is too early to predict who becomes what because a lot is expected that could shape the outcome of the election

princdebola201:

The have penchant for swimming against tide. The same mistake they made in 2015.

PDP have power rotation between North and south in their constitution

That's why I am wondering why the likes of Wike would be fronting for a Northern candidate at this point in time.
Wike even as a VP presidential candidate leaves a bad taste in the mouth.A Northern/Wike PDP ticket for eg,is a sure recipe for a flogging at the polls in my opinion.
The SouthEast would either be apolitical or even go against that ticket due to Wike's name,removing a normally guaranteed 200-300k voter margin that region normally gives.Rivers would not give those magical numbers usually produced from rigging,even if it does,Akwa Ibom being a formal APC state with another good rigger in Akpabio,would neutralise it.All in all 200k overall margin in the entire SS maybe neutralised by Lagos or Ogun State only.That may leave a net margin of up to 1.5m-2m from the SWest alone,leaving that PDP ticket needing to do very well in the large Northern vote states of Kano,Bauchi,Katsina because Kaduna,Borno,Kebbi are toss up states.
The MiddleBelt is also a toss up with a likely win overall for APC.

maestroferddi:
2023 is PDP's game to lose... every APC leader knows this ...

They are doing everything to lose it the way they are going.

doctokwus:

They are doing everything to lose it the way they are going.

Idiomatic expression...

princdebola201:
PDP thirst to quickly return to the power in 2023 will finally bury the party.
They want to gamble with a northerner ticket when the whole country is clamouring for southern presidency.
The have penchant for swimming against tide. The same mistake they made in 2015.

PDP have power rotation between North and south in their constitution

Its only yorubas that are clamoring for Southern President.We in SS are voting for whoever PDP presents

slivertongue:


From one speculation to another. A deputy is the chairman when there is a substantivechairman. Consensus &election are modes of choosing a leader. That the PDP governors agreed on one man means they trust in his ability & judgment. You previously held that the 'comptrollers' men were removed from the party in the last convention &I intimated you that Ayu is an ally of Atiku, a personal friend I gathered. A man who has seen it though not all. The SW deserves to lead the PDP but was schemed out cos they are mainly with the APC. Giving the SW the party would be handing the party to the APC. Most PDP members in the SW sold out in 2015. Handing the party to NC is a strategic return to pre 1999 politicking. The party in NC targets a return to pre 2015 &not some abstract positioning. The Arapaja tale is a consolation story built on probability. If Arapaja is good enough why didn't Makinde insist he leads the party? The mainstay of PDP are NC, SS, SE &NE so the leadership rotates thus. The P & VP wud also come from amongst the above.
Your interventions shows you are scared of the PDP. Even when Turaki is yet to throw his heart into the ring you are scared but PDP can throw up any person of choice. Nothing stops the governors from choosing someone from the North or South who will go ahead and win the election.

Dont mind he, he is scared of Atiku, he is low key supporting Tinubu with sentiments

princdebola201:
politics doesnt work that way. I guess you pdp apologist have same fantasy of pdp northern candidate defeating APC southern candidate when verifiable statistics says otherwise.

In the history of nigeria election , southerners have edge over northerners when the face off in general election

Nnamdi azikwe defeated ahmadu bello
Mko abiola defeated tofa
Obasanjo defeated buhari
Gej defeated buhari

PARTY POLITICAL STRUCTURE, AND MACHINERY IS WHAT DECIDE ELECTIONS.

Not that fantasies of a northern candidate blablabla in PDP foot soilders head.

APC HAS THE FORMIDABLE POLITICAL STRUCTURE ,MACHINERY AND POWER OF INCUMBENCY WITH BUHARI CULT FOLLOWERS

Like i said pdp don't stand a chance even with any northern candidate.

'Verifiable statistics'? Throw them up. You have refused to understand my interventions. I didn't write off the South. I boldly stated that should the South unite, the NC wud support them to victory. I went forward to also say that any SE & SS candidate wud stand a chance to win if backed by the SW which had eight years but should the SW insist on going to the polls the SE &SS wud team up with the NC &NE to push for victory. Equity is both ways. You can't be advocating for rotation in the name of
North - South equity only to practice the opposite in the South. I repeat the North is counting on a slip. Zik defeated Ahmadu Bello in which election pls. Buhari defeated Gej.


Be specific which divide of the South is the president coming from? Which Southern candidate?

princdebola201:
politics doesnt work that way. I guess you pdp apologist have same fantasy of pdp northern candidate defeating APC southern candidate when verifiable statistics says otherwise.

In the history of nigeria election , southerners have edge over northerners when the face off in general election

Nnamdi azikwe defeated ahmadu bello
Mko abiola defeated tofa
Obasanjo defeated buhari
Gej defeated buhari

PARTY POLITICAL STRUCTURE, AND MACHINERY IS WHAT DECIDE ELECTIONS.

Not that fantasies of a northern candidate blablabla in PDP foot soilders head.

APC HAS THE FORMIDABLE POLITICAL STRUCTURE ,MACHINERY AND POWER OF INCUMBENCY WITH BUHARI CULT FOLLOWERS

Like i said pdp don't stand a chance even with any northern candidate.

And you forgot Buhari defeated GEJ in 2015 when the Northerners united

maestroferddi:
Your views are puerile, I have to say...

Are you speaking on realities on ground or ventilating ridiculous fantasies?

Buhari will bequeath 12 million votes? Like the votes are goods kept in a warehouse for him to hand over to an APC flagbearer at election time?

Consider the above, does it reflect rationality?

Buhari is an unmitigated failure..Even northerners say it without reservations.

Most of his loyalists in 2015 and 2019 will vote against him were he to be on the ballot in the future.

Political analysis should be about empirical facts and not an indulgence in speculative fantasy.

Thoughtless remarks keep sprouting about the weakness of PDP but Buhari, who should know better, recently warned that PDP is poised to regain power.

2023 is PDP's game to lose... every APC leader knows this ...

He is a yoruba, let him keep deceiving himself

doctokwus:

That's why I am wondering why the likes of Wike would be fronting for a Northern candidate at this point in time.
Wike even as a VP presidential candidate leaves a bad taste in the mouth.A Northern/Wike PDP ticket for eg,is a sure recipe for a flogging at the polls in my opinion.
The SouthEast would either be apolitical or even go against that ticket due to Wike's name,removing a normally guaranteed 200-300k voter margin that region normally gives.Rivers would not give those magical numbers usually produced from rigging,even if it does,Akwa Ibom being a formal APC state with another good rigger in Akpabio,would neutralise it.All in all 200k overall margin in the entire SS maybe neutralised by Lagos or Ogun State only.That may leave a net margin of up to 1.5m-2m from the SWest alone,leaving that PDP ticket needing to do very well in the large Northern vote states of Kano,Bauchi,Katsina because Kaduna,Borno,Kebbi are toss up states.
The MiddleBelt is also a toss up with a likely win overall for APC.

Lol, same Akpabio that couldn't win his senate election, now I know you are joking here

doctokwus:
The arithmetic of a Tinubu/North vs Atiku/South candidacy
Contrary to some other opinion,despite the handicaps a Tinubu candidacy may present,surprisingly the Arithmetic seems to favor him (assuming he wins the primaries) than any other candidate.
Lagos is sewn up for him because the voting population that would be mobilised to vote that day are the commoners and some chunk of the middle class.Majority of Southwestern votes too,despite party affiliation.
Since elections started becoming relatively credible in Nigeria,the SouthEast has been shown to historical have a penchant for not turning up on election day,to be made worse if no southeasterner is on any of the ballots.So whatever the tally there,it won't make much difference to the overall margin or the 25% spread,who ever wins here.
Same,but to a lesser extent applies to the South South.A PDP candidate may win here,but the Lagos margin alone may wipe out whatever gain the PDP secures here.
TBC

Oga Tinubu can never win anything more than 60% of votes in Lagos.Majority of the non-yorubas in Lagos will not win in Lagos.If you doubt this check the results of the last two presidential elections in Lagos.

The APC will score a very narrow win in Lagos.You won't get any margin from there

doctokwus:

That's why I am wondering why the likes of Wike would be fronting for a Northern candidate at this point in time.
Wike even as a VP presidential candidate leaves a bad taste in the mouth.A Northern/Wike PDP ticket for eg,is a sure recipe for a flogging at the polls in my opinion.
The SouthEast would either be apolitical or even go against that ticket due to Wike's name,removing a normally guaranteed 200-300k voter margin that region normally gives.Rivers would not give those magical numbers usually produced from rigging,even if it does,Akwa Ibom being a formal APC state with another good rigger in Akpabio,would neutralise it.All in all 200k overall margin in the entire SS maybe neutralised by Lagos or Ogun State only.That may leave a net margin of up to 1.5m-2m from the SWest alone,leaving that PDP ticket needing to do very well in the large Northern vote states of Kano,Bauchi,Katsina because Kaduna,Borno,Kebbi are toss up states.
The MiddleBelt is also a toss up with a likely win overall for APC.

I hope you don't mind sharing the margin the SW gave the APC in the last two presidential elections?.

doctokwus:

Don't be surprised to see Benue going to APC.Those are unpredictable lots.Niger State governor has backed Tinubu already.Kogi's margin maybe inconsequential or d governor even backs Tinubu if he gets reassurances.
Turnout in Katsina/Bauchi maynot be that substantial because there is no Buhari they would rig the elections for;even if it turnout is substantial the margin of victory maynot be that substantial for either candidate in 2023.
Your other assertions are also up for debate.

So because Niger Gov backed Tinubu means the almajiris in that state will vote for him? LWKMD

cktheluckyman:

Oga Tinubu can never win anything more than 60% of votes in Lagos.Majority of the non-yorubas in Lagos will not win in Lagos.If you doubt this check the results of the last two presidential elections in Lagos.

The APC will score a very narrow win in Lagos.You won't get any margin from there

I agree.
But a 60-40% win ratio in a 2million vote tally count is even huge.That is a margin of victory of 400k!
Oga,400k in an election where massive rigging for Buhari in the North won't happen,due to his absence on the ballot,is quite substantial.
If up to 3million votes can be mobilised,using your 60-40 ratio,that gives 600k!!Though,unless in a rigged voting,I don't see Lagos mobilising more than 2.5million to the polls.
Forget,all the figures being produced in the past,the honest truth is that for various reasons like disinterest,location being different from where people registered for PVC,apathy,sickness,death and sheer disinterest,no free/fair election in Nigeria,anywhere,would get more than 35% voter turnout

doctokwus:

I agree.
But a 60-40% win ratio in a 2million tally count gives is even huge.That is a margin of victory of 400k!
Oga,400k in an election where massive rigging for Buhari in the North won't happen,due to his absence on the ballot,is quite substantial.

LWKMD!!Oga stop been funny.The margin in the entire SW was barely 500k in the last two presidential elections.You must be dreaming of you think Tinubu can get a margin of 400k in Lagos alone.

It is even easier for Tinubu to secure a margin of 400k in Oyo than in a very cosmopolitan state like Lagos

Tinubu's only chance of victory will be winning the North which I don't see happening if the PDP presents a Northern Candidate.The margin of defeat from the SS/SE will surely wipe out any margin he secures in the SW

cktheluckyman:

I hope you don't mind sharing the margin the SW gave the APC in the last two presidential elections?.

About 260K net.
Lagos 155k,Osun 10k,Ekiti 65k,Ogun 90k
PDP won Ondo 34k and Oyo 1k

doctokwus:

About 260K net.
Lagos 155k,Osun 10k,Ekiti 65k,Ogun 90k
PDP won Ondo 34k and Oyo 1k

It is even worse than I thought

cktheluckyman:

LWKMD!!Oga stop been funny.The margin in the entire SW was barely 500k in the last two presidential elections.You must be dreaming of you think Tinubu can get a margin of 400k in Lagos alone.

It is even easier for Tinubu to secure a margin of 400k in Oyo than in a very cosmopolitan state like Lagos

I used that eg based on the 60:40 projection the person I quoted gave.
Funny enough,despite Buhari's disastrous rule and the expected higher enlightenment level expected of Lagos State,APC still won Lagos with a 150k margin; while they lost Oyo State in 2019.
So much for Lagos being full of educated, enlightened people!

cktheluckyman:
It is even worse than I thought

Worse for PDP or APC?

YellowMayor:



Amaechi can never single handedly donate 100 billion to APC. There has to be someone or group of people behind the scenes.

I doubt Amechi have up to that in his account sef

#100b is not a child's play.