Posted by: Obiagu1

The first step anyone serious about the disolution of this crap called Nigeria is to start discussing how the offshore oil revenue would be shared.
If not, just suck it up!
If your backyard gets polluted, you deal with it. If you're marginalised, find a way to survive without the others.
If your relative is bombed, bury him and lock yourself in a room and cry.

Nigeria can only be divided in two ways: war or share the oil.

My brother Obiagu, you never fail me! Thanks!
I believe a lot of folks here are "kids" and I don't mean age-wise; just naive.

Evil Brain:

The SW would likely end as the richest of all the nations. They already have a diverse economy, excellent man-power and fairly good governance. The removal of oil revenue will lead to less rent-seeking, less corruption and ultimately more wealth for everybody. Plus they are likely to serve as the economic hub of the entire region, the same way London serves most of western Europe. This is less likely to happen though if the Yorubas kick out those from other tribes. If the SW can keep its best people, then they'll be the big winners.

+1

Singapore and the Asian tigers are my model.

Regarding bolded, I don't anyone economically productive kicked out. Poaching the talent of other nations is in part why America is so strong a country. SW should (continue to) do the same to the rest of Africa.

Onlytruth:

Well, I'll simply assume that those of you who think that oil won't be shared with the North, are actually die hard One Nigerianists. That is what you are saying indirectly: some out of wicked cleverness, while others out of naivety.

If you don't share with the North, forget about Nigeria ever breaking up.
If you doubt me, spare sometime and read about Nigeria's history, from 1950 to 2011.
You will learn a few things.

Do you think I want to share anything with anybody? NO
I have no choice; and it is already happening anyway. So, you continue to have the same system, or if you are serious about having your own nation you would be reasonable and make the necessary concessions to get that.
Oil must finish one day. That is certain.

Sharing oil revenues for some fixed period of time is fine. But signing away territorial water rights is stupid. Nobody will agree to that. And if they agree, they'll renege the first chance they get.

Posted by: ekt_bear

Sharing oil revenues for some fixed period of time is fine. But signing away territorial water rights is silly. Nobody will agree to that. And if they agree, they'll renege the first chance they get.

I'm not really concerned about "territorial water rights" because Aboki is not much interested in that. All they really care about is oil. They can import from many countries' ports as they are already doing. But oil? Na different ball game.

Again, I am guided by history.
Most of these people mouthing off will simply run away at the sight of the first aboki soldier. That is fact of history.

. . And I know that Igbo man won't want to fight Aboki alone again, with folks stabbing us in the back again. Ain't happening.

In fact Nigeria will only divide on Aboki and Igbo mans terms.

And I also don't believe that anyone up North would buy the idea of sharing offshore oil revenue on a temporary basis.
It must be shared in perpetuity, else forget it.

On the topic of kicking people out. . .

There is some really cool woman, Ngozi Edozien. Harvard grad, HBS grad who is head of some PE company with offices in Lagos.

Anybody trying to kick talent like her out of the SW will have to fight me first, heh.

People like her are worth more than their weight in gold, and any sensible country would seek to retain and add more of them, not kick 'em out.

Onlytruth:

And I also don't believe that anyone up North would buy the idea of sharing offshore oil revenue on a temporary basis.
It must be shared in perpetuity, else forget it.

Hehe. Then the coastal peoples of Nigeria will sign the agreement, then renege in 5 years once they've built up a navy and army. Simple.

Or which navy is Arewa republic planning on enforcing this agreement with? 

They'll be able to get 20 or 30 years, but not forever. And if you cannot stand on your own two feet after 20 or 30 years, then you never will.

Btw, why is offshore oil alone what is being shared with the north?

Posted by: ekt_bear

On the topic of kicking people out. . .

There is some really cool woman, Ngozi Edozien. Harvard grad, HBS grad who is head of some PE company with offices in Lagos.

Anybody trying to kick talent like her out of the SW will have to fight me first, heh.

People like her are worth more than their weight in gold, and any sensible country would seek to retain and add more of them, not kick 'em out.

You can be sure that her type would never be allowed to leave Biafra.  
We would make sure of that. Our business and economic environment would be world beaters.

Evil Brain:

In the unlikely event that Nigeria were to split up, the north and the SS would be the biggest losers and the SW the best off.

The north would be land-locked and would depend entirely on the southern nation(s) for all their imports. Plus they would lose all the free money they've been getting from oil leading to a major economic crisis.

The SS on paper would be the richest, but in reality, their politicians would get most of the wealth as they currently do leaving the ordinary people to feed on scraps. The average SS man wouldn't even be able to farm because of all the pollution. The gap betwwen the rich and the poor will get even wider than it currently is leading to instability and eventually, Libya-style chaos.

The SE would do fairly well they'd get a little oil and they'd make a good living trading with the surrounding nations.

The SW would likely end as the richest of all the nations. They already have a diverse economy, excellent man-power and fairly good governance. The removal of oil revenue will lead to less rent-seeking, less corruption and ultimately more wealth for everybody. Plus they are likely to serve as the economic hub of the entire region, the same way London serves most of western Europe. This is less likely to happen though if the Yorubas kick out those from other tribes. If the SW can keep its best people, then they'll be the big winners.

Simply the best post so far, IMHO!.

I tried very hard to find a single point I could disagree with, but I couldn't!

I initially believed that after the North, the SE might be the second biggest 'loser', but I now agree with you that the SS might lose more than the SE, thanks to the cogent points that you put across so excellently and plausibly.

Posted by: ekt_bear

Hehe. Then the coastal peoples of Nigeria will sign the agreement, then renege in 5 years once they've built up a navy and army. Simple.

Or which navy is Arewa republic planning on enforcing this agreement with?   

They'll be able to get 20 or 30 years, but not forever. And if you cannot stand on your own two feet after 20 or 30 years, then you never will.

Btw, why is offshore oil alone what is being shared with the north?

I keep telling you to read Nigeria's history first. Aboki is the most scared group of people in Nigeria. They don't trust anybody down south.
If you think they would agree to anything without having Northern soldiers stationed there to enforce it, then you must be underestimating them. I don't think that is a good thing.

@second bolded,
Because everyone agrees about that. That is why we had onshore/offshore dichotomy a while ago.
If Nigeria fails as one nation, it would return with full force. 

@Ekt_bear,

Again, Aboki has a history of reneging on agreements once he sees he can get away with it. So, you want to give him as much as he wants, else prepare to fight a war, and you don't even know how each new nation would react in such situation. I'm saying these because southern Nigerian groups betrayed Ndigbo, and some are still continuing in that tradition. WE WON'T LET IT HAPPEN AGAIN.
You will share your oil and sea access with Aboki, else, prepare for war. 

I don't want this discussion to get too long.

Here is what I know:
1) I don't see why only offshore oil revenue should be shared. If Nigeria splits into different countries, then the territorial water rights have the same status as any resources on land. There is no "offshore/onshore" dichotomy from the perspective of international law. Oil drilled from the North Sea (or at least England's part of it) has the same status as if they struck oil in downtown London somewhere.
2) I'd be willing to maintain the status quo as far as oil-revenue sharing goes for 20 years or whatever. But this doesn't mean I've given up my territorial rights. And in year 21, everyone goes their separate ways. . . you relate with the SW in the same way as you relate with Switzerland or Germany. No special favors, no special relationship. No encroaching on the SW's territorial waters. Just as I wouldn't take kindly to Liberia or Ghana doing so, I wouldn't like you to do so. In year 21, connection finally completely severed.
3) Anyone who opposes #2 above in a post-Nigeria setting. . . well, they will get a rude awakening, heh.

Anyway, I don't care. I'll sign whatever to have Nigeria split apart. Just keep in mind that 10 years, 15 years from now, what was signed may very well be worthless.

So if you ask someone at gunpoint to sign something that is unreasonable, just know that in 10-15 years once they've built up their economy (and thus ability to spend money on an army, navy, and air force), you'll have no power to enforce that agreement 

Posted by: ekt_bear

Anyway, I don't care. I'll sign whatever to have Nigeria split apart. Just keep in mind that 10 years, 15 years from now, what was signed may very well be worthless.

So if you ask someone at gunpoint to sign something that is unreasonable, just know that in 10-15 years once they've built up their economy (and thus ability to spend money on an army, navy, and air force), you'll have no power to enforce that agreement 

A typical example of what I'm trying to tell you is what obtains in the Russian Black Sea Naval Fleet at  Sevastopol in Ukraine.
It used to be Soviet base, but Russia owns it now, and it is in UKRAINE, not Russia.
And will continue to own it.

The bottomline of who gets what is really determined by who historically has proven ability to back up his claims MILITARILY.

Aboki will most likely have Naval base in the South to enforce and protect his economic and other interests.
I'm a practical man.
Your theory can only work if you have a history of fighting for your land. Unfortunately, that is not so.

Naval bases cost money. Building an army costs money. If you have a small GDP, you'll have a small army (unless you devote an unsustainable amount of it to military spending.)

Your analogy is poor, because GDP-wise the SW is Russia to the North's Ukraine. GDP of Lagos State is ~$43 billion according to the economist. GDP of Nigeria as a whole is ~$200 billion. I don't have the #s, but all 19 states combined GDP-wise may be smaller than Lagos, for all I know.

It is somewhat obvious that they'll have no ability to enforce any such agreements even in as few as 3 years post-partition. Certainly 15 years, not a chance in hell.

Math and #s simply are not in their favor.

Onlytruth:

Posted by: Obiagu1
My brother Obiagu, you never fail me! Thanks!
I believe a lot of folks here are "kids" and I don't mean age-wise; just naive.

When this issue of offshore oil revenue is not raised, I often laugh at the so called militant groups because they'll remain militants forever; crying of one thing or the other.

When folks that are serious about seeing the end of Nigeria come around, I'll know. Like you said, all the Northerners really care about is the oil.

For a practical man, you don't seem to pay much attention to money.

History of "fighting for your land" isn't going to do you much good when the SW can devote 3% of it's GDP to military spending and even you as the North spending 5% on military defense cannot match their cash.

Posted by: ekt_bear

Naval bases cost money. Building an army costs money. If you have a small GDP, you'll have a small army (unless you devote an unsustainable amount of it to military spending.)

Your analogy is poor, because GDP-wise the SW is Russia to the North's Ukraine. GDP of Lagos State is ~$43 billion according to the economist. GDP of Nigeria as a whole is ~$200 billion. I don't have the #s, but all 19 states combined GDP-wise may be smaller than Lagos, for all I know.

It is somewhat obvious that they'll have no ability to enforce any such agreements even in as few as 3 years post-partition. Certainly 15 years, not a chance in hell.

Math and #s simply are not in their favor.

My analogy may not be 100% accurate, but it is the closest.
You keep making the mistake of assigning current economic indices to newly emerged nations.
That is wrong, because Lagos for one would lose billions of dollars in economic and financial activity to the East (Biafra) and other nations. The same would apply to most of SW.
The Navy would be funded by direct money from the offshore oil proceeds. You think say aboki go pay for am? LOL.

Minus SE and parts of SS; SW would not be economically better than the North believe me.

Fair enough. If you believe:

Onlytruth:

That is wrong, because Lagos for one would lost billions of dollars in economic and financial activity to the East (Biafra) and other nations. The same would apply to most of SW.

and

Minus SE and parts of SS; SW would not be economically better than the North believe me.

Then we are just working with a different set of facts/beliefs.

Anyway, fortunately for the purposes of this thread, it doesn't matter. So long as we all agree that Nigeria should be divided.

Posted by: ekt_bear

Then we are just working with a different set of facts/beliefs.

Anyway, fortunately for the purposes of this thread, it doesn't matter. So long as we all agree that Nigeria should be divided.

Of course we agree that Nigeria should be divided; but the meat in the sandwich is the "how".
I am only telling the practical hows, bearing in mind Nigerian historical realities.

ekt_bear:

Fair enough. If you believe:

and
Then we are just working with a different set of facts/beliefs.

Anyway, fortunately for the purposes of this thread, it doesn't matter. So long as we all agree that Nigeria should be divided.

why would u want Nigeria to divide

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Onlytruth:

Posted by: ekt_bear
My analogy may not be 100% accurate, but it is the closest.
You keep making the mistake of assigning current economic indices to newly emerged nations.
That is wrong, because Lagos for one would lose billions of dollars in economic and financial activity to the East (Biafra) and other nations. The same would apply to most of SW.
The Navy would be funded by direct money from the offshore oil proceeds. You think say aboki go pay for am? LOL.

Minus SE and parts of SS; SW would not be economically better than the North believe me.

what makes u think that any southern state would be better than the north ?

do u even know the untrap resources the North has ?

Posted by: alj_harem

what makes u think that any southern state would be better than the north ?

do u even know the untrap resources the North has ?

I believe that Biafra would be better; but not by fiat, but by SHARE HARDWORK.
That is why I am willing to share the oil with the North.

alj_harem:

what makes u think that any southern state would be better than the north ?

do u even know the untrap resources the North has ?

for some reason, ppl always underestimate the North. It will be much easier for the North to develop if they rally behind a visonary leader like Sardauna while the Southerners are still bu.llshiting with their everyone is king mentality.

lagcity:

for some reason, ppl always underestimate the North. It will be much easier for the North to develop if they rally behind a visonary leader like Sardauna while the Southerners are still bu.llshiting with their everyone is king mentality.

thanks you

lagcity

In ora o, in okun o! Mi wi kimi kan f'enu si oro rin:

It should divide already. Every tribe in Nigeria with their cowardness

Biafra starts and ends on the internet. Nothing go happen for that side. "Powerful soldiers" too afraid to confront Northerners.

Northern leaders are too afraid to confront their Boko harams. See as everybody dey scare to step on toes.

Yorubas are keeping to themselves. . . . they dont wanna get blamed for anybody's foolishness again.

Onahaeze and OPC's warnings do not get action put into them gbam!

Every other minor tribes in Nigeria dey go as them please.  


If you want Nigeria to divide, be initiative. Stop typing from behind your laptops where you're perfectly safe.


Nigerians and their cowardness. . . . see how the might/mightiest have fallen. Big shameeeeee!!! Wasted Youths and wastededed agbayas.

Onlytruth:

Posted by: ekt_bear
Of course we agree that Nigeria should be divided; but the meat in the sandwich is the "how".
I am only telling the practical hows, bearing in mind Nigerian historical realities.

Right, but the point is that your different beliefs (those things I quoted) don't affect anything. We can agree on "how" w/o agreeing on those guesses of yours.

Onlytruth:

Posted by: alj_harem
I believe that Biafra would be better; but not by fiat, but by SHARE HARDWORK.
That is why I am willing to share the oil with the North.

stop deceiving yourself. Biafra will be a very confused country becos everyone is king. all the hardwork in the world won't do any good. Igbos are not group-smart.

Onlytruth:

Posted by: alj_harem
I believe that Biafra would be better; but not by fiat, but by SHARE HARDWORK.
That is why I am willing to share the oil with the North.

Good and you watch as things would go from this state to dubia.

Apart from the oil, gold, uranium, tin, lead etc the north has

large expanse of land

good soil for farming

large work force

good morals in the society ( trust me it is need for economic growth)

couple with the hard working nature of the kanuri

the sky is the limit

alj_harem:

why would u want Nigeria to divide

I don't think Nigeria is a well-run country and I think we could do achieve more apart than together.

[size=4pt]Like your signature[/size]  

Hehe. Fstranger and some other dude called me this mockingly, but they spoke the truth. Little do they I know that I am Sango reincarnated. . .