₦airaland Forum

[quote author=AMINDA post=141026121]Lacklustre. "I will collect the vehicle from you." That's all what this is about. How can he claim the support is organic when they are only purporting to support Tinubu so they can drive the gifted vehicles around? Anyways, as abysmal as that crowd in Imo was, it is still 2 times the size of the crowd that Tinubu met on ground in Kaduna. If it didn't dey, e didn't dey.

VAR: This was when President Tinubu was addressing the Kaduna rally at the Ranchers Bees stadium.

I told you guys to just leave them deceive themselves. Any sane person should know the problem that made them go exhume the video of the 2022 rally claiming it to be last Saturday… pic.twitter.com/UcTTbfIHH0

— Samuel Omogor (@SamuelOmogor) October 26, 2026

will be buried in imo

AMINDA:
The people are the structure, not politicians. Tinubu had the structure in Kaduna over the weekend. What was lacking was the people. Tinubu also had the structure in Lagos in 2023. What he lacked was the people.

All the states Atiku won in 2023 or did well, he had structures. Are politicians not people? From my view, the crowd was massive. You only saw what you wanted to see. Even if buhari resurrects and endorses Tinubu, you will still complain.
Atiku cannot win because the structures or factors working for him are no more there. When Tinubu is reelected, you will find another reason to wail

AMINDA:
Okay, campaign crowd doesn't matter again abi? Noted. No change mouth later o. Here was Atiku in Kaduna in 2023. How many uniforms, caps and flags can you spot? Needless to say, he won the state and won Katsina, too. The margin will only be bigger in 2027.

P.S: Look at Shehu Sani on the podium supporting Atiku after 8 years of Buhari. He suddenly became a "turn of the South" advocate in big 2027. We all know what we are doing.

Nigeria for Atiku
Arewa for Atiku

I don tear step tire!
Apc Sai Mun bata wuta
pic.twitter.com/B0FYGgGhag

— Atu.Ng 🎀(Rtw Brand) (@ItzMisschaos) October 26, 2026

Yet he still lost abi? He had a stronger structure and resources in kaduna and Katsina then now he is weaker. He will lose Katsina and win kaduna narrowly...

Oga, the Atiku campaign is full of banners and matching uniforms. If you zoom up, the crowd become scanty. Atiku is a born loser

AMINDA:
She should have brought them to augment the crowd in Kaduna instead of allowing Tinubu to talk to himself in Kaduna.

VAR: This was when President Tinubu was addressing the Kaduna rally at the Ranchers Bees stadium.

I told you guys to just leave them deceive themselves. Any sane person should know the problem that made them go exhume the video of the 2022 rally claiming it to be last Saturday… pic.twitter.com/UcTTbfIHH0

— Samuel Omogor (@SamuelOmogor) October 26, 2026

Lol, she's not as foolish as atikulators. Grassroot mobilization is more important than campaign crowd. You be novice

AMINDA:
Have you noticed that we have not seen pictures of the likes of Sanwo-olu, Gbajabiamila, and other Southwestern politicians and appointees mobilising for Tinubu in the Southwest? Why is that? It's not like he won the Lagos Osun nor the rest of the Southwest in a landslide. Why is it only Northern governors and appointees that are being given marching orders to go campaign for Tinubu in the North? As at today, Tinubu is more unpopular in the South than he is in the North amd that's what they are trying to hide.

He will get the necessary votes and trash Atiku

AMINDA:
Jokes on you. Tinubu is more unpopular in the South today than he is in the North. 70% of his votes came from the North. He is not the choice of the Southern people. Peter Obi is.

Let Peter obi sweep the south then. By the way what is Atiku's fate in the south

AMINDA:
Lol. Who's voice is in the background? Continue to bury your head in the sand.

VAR: This was when President Tinubu was addressing the Kaduna rally at the Ranchers Bees stadium.

I told you guys to just leave them deceive themselves. Any sane person should know the problem that made them go exhume the video of the 2022 rally claiming it to be last Saturday… pic.twitter.com/UcTTbfIHH0

— Samuel Omogor (@SamuelOmogor) October 26, 2026

Lol, we had all these campaign ground argument from 2019 and here we are again. Don't you get tired? You are so invested in trying to undermine the kaduna rally. It's all part of Atiku's calculated strategy

AMINDA:
VAR video emerges of Tinubu addressing the "mammoth crowd" in Kaduna.

VAR: This was when President Tinubu was addressing the Kaduna rally at the Ranchers Bees stadium.

I told you guys to just leave them deceive themselves. Any sane person should know the problem that made them go exhume the video of the 2022 rally claiming it to be last Saturday… pic.twitter.com/UcTTbfIHH0

— Samuel Omogor (@SamuelOmogor) October 26, 2026

This isn't when tinubu was talking. Atiku flagoff is coming

Penguin2:
You like to lie to yourself a lot.

Tinubu has no pathway to reelection but you can continue to lie to yourself.

Is it not you that claimed kaduna spent 2.3 trillion? You can believe anything anti APC Sha.
You obidients are notoriously known for lying to yourself. If Atiku wins core north, what is his pathway? If obi wins the south again, which pathway does he have outside kano and north central? The clear fact is that only tinubu can get significant votes both south and north

Penguin2:
No wahala! January 16 no far again.

Yes and I won't see you after then.

AMINDA:
Are you sure? Abdulrazaq is not contesting for governor.

One man can't help atiku.besides, kwara is a safe place for Tinubu, they love him more than lagos

slivertongue:
Tinubu sef may not see 25% votes in kd

He will likely win

AMINDA:
APC lackeys are not terming the news as fake. Una no like Rainbow Coalition again?

No governor will work for Atiku sir since he will bring back subsidy. You yourself agreed it is false

Penguin2:
Since Daily Times made that report, has Kaduna government refuted it? No. So, are you now the spokesperson for Kaduna government or you know what is happening in Kaduna from Auchi more than the NSCDC personnels that were deployed for the operation?

And talking about some Emirs that had endorsed Tinubu, even though there’s no proof of that, can you compare the position of the Ooni of Ife to that of the Soun of Ogbomoso? No. You and I know whose position carries more weight.

That statement by emir of Katsina did a lot of damage to an already battered popularity of Tinubu but you guys can continue to lie to yourselves as usual.

But one final question, you think the Emir spoke for himself alone? Do you know how many Emirs and political stakeholders that share same sentiments with him?

Why is only daily times the one reporting it? I asked you a logical question, is it possible to guard all Tinubu's posters in kaduna? Does opposition means losing one's senses and reasoning capacity?

Oga sir, the endorsement was all over the news. I remember you commented painfully on it. All the emirs involved are first class emirs, none is bigger than the other. You still haven't learnt politics and you obviously won't due to childish emotions. If one emir is opposing and three are endorsing, that is good news for Tinubu as half or majority of northerners are with him. Which emir has endorsed even Atiku? Keep deceiving yourself

Penguin2:
It’s not opposition, it’s because Tinubu is grossly unpopular in the north and entire country at large.

Or why were guards deployed to guard his posters in Kaduna? Is Kaduna opposition too?

Did you listen to what the Emir of Katsina said to Yari? Or Katsina is also opposition state?

It is opposition. Bala hasn't hidden his dislike for Tinubu. Haven't you seen APC governors sacking their aides who criticized tinubu?
Again, the story of policemen guarding billboards is pure propaganda. Tinubu has countless banners in kaduna, how many can the policemen guard sir? Always be realistic in your beliefs. Don't comment based on hatred.
Not all traditional rulers like apc. The sultan is anti APC. Earlier these year, The emirs of Daura, Gumel, Hadejia all publicly supported Tinubu. Why should one emir opposing him be an issue? Is there any traditional ruler in the east supporting obi.
Tinubu might be somewhat unpopular in core north but he is far more popular than obi. Atiku doesn't have the required popularity to pull it off like buhari so rest

OriOko88:
Tinubu may not win a single state in the north. I see him postponing the election

Tinubu will clear North central. By the way, he doesn't necessarily need to win but to divide votes

Penguin2:
Tinubu is popular and they sacked the man that campaigned for him?

Is Bauchi not an opposition state?

Penguin2:
APC and Tinubu won’t know what hit them sha.

This should show you that tinubu is popular up north. Can any Imam support obingo

Shamo007:
E no win am 2023 na now e go come win am

He lost narrowly then. NDC is non-existent in nasarawa

Treasure17:
This doesn't invalidate the subject matter and besides Nazarawa does not start and end in your location.

Tinubu will actually win nasarawa

slivertongue:
Society is dynamic and the north has learnt bitter lessons from 2015 to the present and cannot and will not repeat Apc again. Tinubu will campaign with deliverables and fear you say. Wow!! No wonder Nigerians are done with Tinubu. The fears of Northern Christians has increased same as that of Muslims who voted Tinubu. Yari was booed when he went to kd to seek the support of the Izala group and others. Tinubu that cannot stand in Sokoto and say what he did for the state, same as Kebbi, Zamfara, Taraba, Gombe, Adamawa, Plateau etc. I have also stayed here win or lose and 2027 won't be different after the opposition wins.

Peace

Nigeria electoral demography isn't dynamic. Majority of Nigerians know Atiku or obi won't bring any positive change. The fear of christians which is islamization and Fulani herdsmen and marginalization has been tamed. Tinubu has spoilt northern christians with a plethora of appointments and projects and has massively tackled insecurity in the north central. We hardly hear of herdsmen trouble...

Yari wasn't booed, it was AI. Those chants are usually programmed and emanates only from where the camera is. Sokoto is a major beneficiary of the sokoto Badagry highway plus the US combo with Nigeria tackled banditry in sokoto

slivertongue:
You write like a boastful southerner who does not know how the north of today is. You now blame GMB after pretending he was doing well. Nasir now didn't work for Tinubu. If it was easy as you think Tinubu wouldn't have been running around looking for the support of Northern muslim clerics. APC's buying into the opposition is counter productive. Yes I have always predicted doom for APC because they are a gathering of hedonists. You like others are now blaming GMB what an interesting time. Why don't you try to campaign with deliverables instead of building castles in the air. Please inquire about what happened in Lafia during Apc campaign. If you say the Christian north will vote for obi, then it is in line with 6 out of 7 for the opposition and a loss for Tinubu.

I know how the north votes that is why I usually predict their voting pattern accurately unlike you. APC didn't campaign in Lafia except you mean the north central rally. APC are carrying out a series of campaigns village to village, ward to ward across all nooks and crannies undertaken by various support groups and NDC or ADC can never cover enough grounds...as you predict doom for APC, it is bouncing back to your opposition
Tinubu is campaigning with deliverables and fears. The Christian north have swung to Tinubu sir. The reasons why they voted for obi are no more there. Even in that core north tinubu will drag it with Atiku. I know you will disappear before the polls end

slivertongue:
Easy OK. I didn't author the opinion you responded to. A former high ranking Apc member did

You are really funny. Of what importance is the opinion of an aggrieved opposition? When you posted it to me, what where you thinking

slivertongue:
TINUBU'S BIGGEST POLITICAL PROBLEM MAY BE THE NORTH HE ONCE TOOK FOR GRANTED.


There is a dangerous mistake Nigerian politicians often make. They confuse the votes they received with the loyalty they have earned. President Bola Tinubu may be discovering the difference.

The North gave him a decisive opportunity in 2023. A significant section of Northern voters accepted the Muslim-Muslim ticket, overlooked the objections surrounding his candidacy, and helped deliver the presidency. Four years later, the question is no longer what the North did for Tinubu, but what Tinubu has done for the North.

Beyond party loyalty, religious affinity and campaign promises, what exactly can the ordinary Northerner point to as evidence that his vote has improved his life?

Across parts of the North, insecurity has become an economic blockade. Farmers cannot confidently access their farms. Traders fear travelling between communities. Families are displaced, livelihoods destroyed, and communities forced to negotiate their own survival with armed groups. In some places, banditry has evolved into a parallel system of taxation, kidnapping and ransom collection.

A government that cannot adequately secure the lives and property of its citizens will eventually discover that political loyalty has limits. Hunger can silence a man for a while, but betrayal has a way of awakening him.

Yet insecurity is only one part of Tinubu's growing political problem.

His government has pursued painful economic reforms, including the removal of petrol subsidies and foreign-exchange reforms. These measures were presented as necessary corrections to a broken economic system. But reforms are not judged by the courage required to announce them. They are judged by the results they produce and the sacrifices they demand from ordinary people.

When citizens are asked to endure higher transport costs, expensive food, collapsing purchasing power and unbearable living conditions, they have every right to ask whether those at the top are making comparable sacrifices.

Unfortunately, the public perception is that austerity is for the poor while comfort remains the privilege of political power. An administration that demands patience from struggling families must demonstrate restraint in its own spending, transparency in its contracts and seriousness in its fight against corruption.

The question of regional balance also deserves an honest answer.

No president can develop every part of Nigeria equally at every moment. But national leadership requires a visible commitment to fairness. When major infrastructure announcements, federal appointments and the distribution of strategic opportunities repeatedly generate questions about regional concentration, the government has a responsibility to address those concerns with facts, not dismiss them as the complaints of political opponents.

Nigeria is not the private estate of any ethnic group, and the presidency is not a regional inheritance.

The North has legitimate reasons to demand answers. So do the Southeast, the South-South, the Middle Belt and other parts of the country. They are entitled to ask whether public resources are being deployed according to national priorities or political calculations.

This is where Tinubu's political strategy could become his greatest weakness.

A president cannot indefinitely substitute party defections for public approval. He cannot buy his way out of a crisis of confidence by collecting governors, nor can he mistake the growing size of his party for evidence that Nigerians are satisfied with his government.

Governors have their own political interests. Citizens have their own experiences. The two do not always coincide.

The 2027 election will test that distinction.

For Tinubu, the challenge is especially serious in the North, where the expectations attached to the political alliance that brought him to power may now collide with the lived experiences of insecurity, economic hardship and perceived exclusion.

The North is not a single voting bloc, and no responsible analyst should pretend that every Northerner has reached the same conclusion. But it would be equally foolish to assume that religion, ethnicity or party loyalty can permanently override hunger, fear and disappointment.

Tinubu still has an opportunity to change the narrative. That requires measurable improvements in security, meaningful relief for struggling households, credible action against corruption, more transparent public spending and a demonstrable commitment to national inclusion.

Above all, the 2027 election must be free, fair and credible. No government should be tempted to treat electoral victory as something to be manufactured rather than earned. An election is an opportunity for citizens to renew a mandate or withdraw it.

The presidency is not a reward for winning the last election. It is a responsibility that must be justified every day until the next one.

Tinubu won the North's votes in 2023. Whether he can still command its confidence in 2027 will depend less on the politicians standing beside him and more on the ordinary people who must decide whether his government has earned another four years.

That is the real political test ahead.

You have predicted doom for APC since inception. It is certainly time to step back sir respectfully. Tinubu inherited the insecurity issue and is tackling it headlong alongside a shambolic economy. With buhari's exit, the north is divided and will remain so for some time politically. Atiku can never unite them electorally. They have always rejected Atiku and that will continue. Unless Atiku and obi unite, there is no pathway for the opposition

slivertongue:
I have simply done the right thing by telling you only two major sides exist and from there you take dressing. Nothing exists as Christian and Muslims votes. 2027 isn't gonna be like 2015 to 2023 when the north stood with Apc. Today's north is all man to his tent. It is a poor assumption to say Christians will vote Tinubu they have not taken such a position and will not take it. Christians like me will make my independent choice. If you seek to drag Christian into it then know they have interest in PO and AA because of diversity. The Muslim population in North central is large and there interest differ with that of other regions. If your hope is on those who decamped then listen to Ndume. Kaduna with ElRufai and Uba couldn't stop AA, GMB and masari couldn't stop AA, ganduje and his minions couldn't stop RMK etc. What you saw at the Apc campaign in nasarawa states was just an introduction. The PDP supporters in Plateau, Nasarawa are like those in Kano, Katsina, Kaduna, Bauchi etc they can't be cajoled easily especially by a failed president. Even with rigging Tinubu will still lose, let's wait jejely till election day

My dear, you need the dressing more. You have always stood against APC and failed. Even in 2031, I bet you will still analyse how apc will lose. Of course not all northern christians will vote APC but majority will swing. You are probably among the few opposition that is if you are from north central. 2027 will actually be like 2011. All man to himself favours Tinubu still as he has more capacity than the other two..
Ndume has always prophesied doom for APC from 2019 so no logical person will follow him. Where did winning kaduna take Atiku to? Tinubu got the necessary votes that's if El rufai actually worked for him. Atiku won Katsina with about 5k, that's more like a loss. Besides major stakeholders in Katsina silently supported Atiku...
APC haven't campaigned in nasarawa sir or anywhere. Pdp supporters in north central are either aligned to Tinubu or obi, nothing for Atiku. Atiku will lose gallantly as usual. No need to wait, the handwriting is crystal clear

Dogalmighty17:
I'm not a Tinubu supporter by any means. I'm in Lafia, Nasarawa state right now on a business trip. I don't think there is a strong anti-Tinubu sentiment in the city.

From the picture uploaded below, you can see faded billboards with Tinubu's picture on them. This shows you the billboard has been there for a long time and undisturbed. There are countless Tinubu billboards all over the city.

Who do you think will win nasarawa

slivertongue:
Politics the world over has two core schools of thoughts the Liberal and Conservative with Moderate as the intervening perspective. There is nothing strictly called Christian and Muslim votes in the North because there is nothing also called Christian money, Christian development, Christian security, Christian roads, Christian markets, etc neither is there any for Muslims and African traditional worshipers but we have a place called Northern Nigeria.

The Liberal is opened to various ideas and persons, while the conservative focuses on religion, region, ethnicity or specific policy. The liberal North is larger than the conservative North. Those who pushed for a Muslim Muslim ticket cannot go back to the Muslims and campaign with the same messages like they did in 2023, because they scammed them using religion. The liberal areas won't necessarily open up to tickets that ain't balanced and has no deliverables by way of improved standards of living to point to. 6 out of 7 votes of the liberals will go to the opposition. 1 or 2 out of 3 votes of the conservatives will go the ruling administration. That is a total of 3 at most out of 10.

Going by Christian votes Tinubu won't even get 3 out of 10 votes but can get 3 Muslim votes. There are more registered voters now, there is more political awareness now, there is more resolve to turn out and vote now, there are more younger citizens driving the process now, above all 99% of Nigerians are victims of state induced poverty so it is possible for AA to ganner more votes than GMB's. In the South Tinubu won't secure 50% of the votes. Now understand the 50%of the votes in the North is like 70% of votes in the South. Obi’s presence the major threat to AA and Tinubu.

I expected you to list the areas who vote liberally or conservatively but you failed to because they hardly exist up north. Like I earlier said, the north vote along two major lines, religion and ethnicity. The two major areas are the core north or northern Muslims who vote majorly for northern Muslims and northern christians who vote mainly for southern Christians or liberal northern Muslims. Liberals and conservatives are too few up north to effect any change. They are more prominent down south. These are established facts based on Nigeria's history and we must stick to that.
If Tinubu is having 3 out of ten up north, then it is fairly ok assuming the remaining 7 is being divided. Christian votes are almost certainly going to Tinubu, this is a given which even Obi has accepted. Almost all of the so called attacks on apc campaigns are in non Christian dominated areas meaning he will have more Christian votes.
Again, there are less voters than in 2023 and there is less awareness except from the Atiku camp. A large chunk of those that registered newly are doing it for non voting purposes... Nothing can make AA garner much votes than buhari. The factors are not there. Hunger alone is not enough. Factors included popularity, massive decamping, party structure, foreign support etc. none of these are in favour of Atiku. Atiku best bet will be to replicate Buhari 2003-2011 performance where he dominated the core north and lost the other four regions. Even in that core north, pdp got over 25% in most of the 13 states. Tinubu can get up to 50% of the south. He will certainly score above 2023 figure.
The voting turnout gap between the south and north is closing. In 2023, Total votes in the north was 14 million and south 10 million. Assuming AA polls 7 mil in the north and 1 million down south, he still falls short assuming tinubu polls 4.5 mil in the south and 4.5 million in the north. There is absolutely no pathway for Atiku. The only way is to force a runoff which isn't feasible. You made similar analysis in the past against the ruling party and it failed so you should give this a rest

codedguy1:
This is the fear.

It is not a fear but the fact.

Lithiumite:
Thats about 6 states out da window for aminda's atiku out of 19,waiting for aminda to mention just 1 state in the South atiku has wide support......add 6 to 17,thats 23 states out of 36 including fct which is also not considered to be for atiku.

No wonder he is looking for stones, perhaps to vote his incorrigible atiku.

Middlebelt extends beyond north central. It includes kaduna, Taraba, Adamawa, southern Gombe, southern Kebbi and sometimes southern Borno

Cc Aminda , svoboda seems Tinubu will sweep the north

slivertongue:
AA's votes will largely come from the North. Followed by Tinubu and Obi. The gap between AA and southern candidates will be very wide but Tinubu and Obi will have a close run in the North. Tinubu's money will generate votes for him, like half or less than half of what he got in 2023. Most liberal areas in the North which are more than the conservative areas are rooting for AA as the preferred choice and Obi the alternative choice and this is where the bulk of the votes will come from, 7 out 10. In the conservative areas AA is the preferred choice with Tinubu as the alternative, 3 out 10.

I don't know what you mean by liberal and conservative northern areas. I classify the north into two, Muslim and Christian dominated areas. Atiku will dominate the former and Tinubu the latter. The gap Atiku will give Tinubu won't be up to what buhari used to get which is crucial. Tinubu will be closer to Atiku than obi closer to Tinubu. Tinubu has a lot of leverage and room for errors. He can afford to perform worse than 2023 and still win...he can afford to lose half of his northern votes and still win. Atiku needs to double up what he got 2023 which is impossible
Atiku will perform woefully in the south which will be his Achilles heel. Tinubu got 35% in the south and 38% in the north previously. So yes atiku can score 50% in the north ( core north) but if Tinubu gets 30% it's over

aswani:
They, I am sure, will also support only those candidates whose Obidients followers don't celebrate when unfortunate things happen in the middle belt.

Same as the rest of the country. Ndi "elections have consequences" and "they wanted to teach Peter Obi a lesson", how market?

Edo Central will be divided this time