₦airaland Forum

lionshare:
Between 2011–2015, while PDP controlled the presidency, the opposition was steadily winning major off-cycle elections:

* Edo — ACN beat PDP
* Ondo — LP beat PDP
* Anambra — APGA beat PDP
* Osun — APC beat PDP
* Ekiti — PDP won

Meaning PDP lost 4 out of 5 major off-cycle elections before eventually losing the presidency in 2015.

Since APC took power in 2023, the reverse has happened:

* Imo — APC won
* Kogi — APC won
* Bayelsa — PDP won
* Edo — APC won
* Ondo — APC won

So APC has won 4 out of 5 major off-cycle elections so far.

That’s the difference. Before 2015, the opposition was building visible electoral momentum against the ruling party. Today’s opposition simply hasn’t shown that same momentum yet.

Cc svoboda, aminda

Bluna:
There would have been a serious implosion in Ondo APC. I have been expecting it to happen, but the NWC has just saved the party. I used to say Tinubu will struggle in Ondo, but with this latest development, Tinubu is coasting to big victory.

How can Tinubu struggle in ondo when they gave him his highest margin in 2023? I don't like the replacement in central, Taiwo Fasoranti should have been left there in honour of his dad Reuben. It is also a compensation for losing out on deputy governor ticket. Once the governorship moves to central, he will get it. Ipinsagba and Adegbonmire aren't poput

slivertongue:
Must you comment when you have no valid thoughts to add? Haba

Lol, I believe yiu summarized your comment. It is a good development. Commend it and move on or ignore

slivertongue:
A redesigned six-week orientation programme with a stronger focus on leadership, entrepreneurship, digital skills, and specialised career streams.

The above is needless.. 3 weeks sef na wahala

The above is needful for national development except you don't mean well for Nigeria

Svoboda:
All what you are saying is conjecture, but one thing I know is that they were factions within APC, just like they're now. Politics is all about shifting alliances. Elrufai may not have been friends with Tinubu, but he was certainly among northern govs who challenged Buharis decision to implement the naira cashless policy, and campaigned vigorously for Tinubu while delivering good numbers in Kd. I remember he came on channels to openly castigate the fg on the naira issue. He didn't hide his stance. So, in that sense, what exactly is Tinubu paying him back for?

Yes you shift alliance reasonably and logically not you jumping from buhari to Atiku a rival. Buhari would have wanted his supporters to stick to Tinubu.

El rufai opposed Tinubu because he thought Amechi or Fayemi would be chosen and he would be running mate or better still he be picked but with buhari angling to pick Lawan, he had no choice than to fight it. Besides, the naira policy came after the primary when he was deep in tinubu camp. Tinubu has his reasons why he ditched sha. He didn't give as much votes as he should have. In any case, you said politics is shifting alliance and Tinubu shifted from El. If Jigawa and zamfara could be won, no excuse for rufai to lose kaduna

rolams:
Yes for Morocco but I doubt the Senegalese.

Me too

Svoboda:
So it it was Buharis covert approval, why didnt the so called humiliation continue after abba kyaris death? It wasn't always cast on stone that Tinubus candidate would prevail in every affair. Buhari was magnanimous to Tinubu. Lagos had its way and got every fg approval it sought. A lot of fg properties were handed over to Lagos. Express approvals were granted for infrastructure expansion, notably in rail line development.

I'm telling you, if Buhari wanted to obliterate Tinubu, it won't have cost him much. They were willing tools to undertake that assignment, considering he was in the least unpopular at that time. Did Buhari treat Tinubu the way he's treating elrufai presently?

The humiliation continued but on a lower level.
Tinubu was the greatest contributor to buhari victory outside buhari himself so he deserved every good treatment and even more. Even the minister from Lagos and other federal appointees where never Tinubu's nominees. Tinubu's nominees where going to win In ondo, Ekiti until the cabal intervened. The caretaker committee led by Buni did everything possible to frustrate Tinubu. Malami and co didn't hide their disdain....
El rufai never hid his hatred for Tinubu. He aligned with the cabal to fight Tinubu thinking he will benefit and supported Tinubu at the last after seeing that he was the only viable option left. So it's payback. You cannot compare the contribution of Tinubu and El rufai. Tinubu combo with buhari started in 2011 but failed. Even before APC was officially formed, Tinubu started backing buhari totally...

Svoboda:
Nwoye is strong in his own right. He controls the nsugbe/Anambra west axis to a large extent. Oduahs time is past.

You talked about Buhari disgracing and humiliating Tinubu, now you're shifting to Abba kyari. Dead men tell no tales. But what I know is that if Buhari wanted to actually clip Tinubu politically, he would have executed it perfectly well without batting an eyelid. Remember, even up till now Tinubu isn't exactly popular across board in Lagos.

We are not talking about Tinubu popularity but his ill treatment from buhari camp which buhari never denied. His cabal would never have antagonized Tinubu without his covert backing. When kyari was alive, every move he made was against Tinubu. Is it from the ministers list, speakership or senate presidency, Aketi winning primaries over Tinubu candidate, Fayemi winning above Tinubu candidate, oshiomhole removal etc.

Svoboda:
I am not undermining them, I'm only insisting that they all lack the capacity to dissuade our people from voting obi, even by a fraction.

In Anambra north, Obiano has since retired from partisan politics and is currently living in the US, at least, until now. Tony Nwoye would drown out Oduahs voice.

Anambra south and central are difficult to control. Aguata for eg is so republican that Soludos candidates for nass in Anambra south might lose out that day if he strongly insists on Tinubu.


What disgrace and humiliations did Tinubu face from Buhari? You think if this incorrect version is actually true, that Tinubu would still have been tolerated to continue godfathering Lagos while Buhari was in power?

Nwoye was basically retired out of politics until Obi tsunami revitalized him. Oduah has always been influential in anambra north politics. She is dominant on her own in her ogbaru enclave same as Umeoji in Aguata. She is the Ekwunife of Anambra north, self made politician. Nwoye rode on obi's popularity... anyway, Anambra is not important in the scheme of things electorally..

Do you want to pretend that late Abba kyari didn't try to rubbish and isolate Tinubu from buhari at every turn? Remi in 2018 said her husband was trashed. How many ministers and appointees from SW where Tinubu's pick? At the federal level, Tinubu was relegated. Don't try to deny this. If the cabal had their way, buhari would have denied him ticket

rolams:
I see Egypt, Ivory coast and Ghana progressing to the next stage.

Morocco, Senegal

Svoboda:
If Tinubu is relying on the names you mentioned, he should go back and ask them for his money. Obi will drown all of them. Soludo won't even be able to generate 25% in Aguata, how much more else where.

Who's Umeoji or ibezi or Oduah? Even Obiano?

These are top politicians. Imagine you undermining them, that's Atiku's stock in trade. No wonder he keeps failing. Tinubu supported Buhari for 8 years despite humiliations, disgrace faced from the buhari camp. Buhari if alive would have done sane

Svoboda:
Who is the candidate? Whoever it is won't win except late Ubah.

I am talking about presidential. Umeoji and Soludo will get votes in Aguata, Obiano and Oduah in north and Hon Ifeanyi Ibezi in central( Abatete)

Svoboda:
Isn't Anglican othordox too?

The argument was about Catholic not Orthodox

Svoboda:
Cc Akpakomiza2

Told you how influential the othordox churches can be in both Anambra and Enugu..

This is Anglican not catholic

Svoboda:
Umeoji is going to win Anambra for Tinubu....

No sir he will only get some votes for him in Aguata alongside Soludo. I don't know why he wasn't made APC senate candidate

The appointments are well balanced. NE SS SE

Bayo Onanuga X NDPahC X BCDA

STATE HOUSE PRESS RELEASE

PRESIDENT TINUBU APPOINTS NAMDAS DG FOR BCDA, OBAHIAGBON, UMEOJI, EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS FOR NDPHC

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu @officialABAT has appointed Abdulrazak Sa'ad Namdas as the new Director General of the Border Communities Development Agency (BCDA).

Dr Namdas replaces Dr Dakorinama Alabo George, who resigned to contest for an elective post in his home state.

A former member of the House of Representatives representing Ganye/Jada/Mayo Belwa/Toungo federal constituency of Adamawa State, Namdas was the spokesperson of the 8th House of Representatives, and an aspirant in the just-concluded governorship primary election in Adamawa State.

As a seasoned journalist and public relations practitioner, he also served as Chief Press Secretary to former Governor Boni Haruna of Adamawa State.

Also, President Tinubu has appointed Hon. Patrick Obahiagbon, as the Executive Director, Strategy & Commercial, of the Niger Delta Power Holding Company (NDPHC).

President Tinubu also reappointed Mr Chukwuma Umeoji as Executive Director, Corporate Services of the NDPHC.

Obahiagbon replaces Engineer Omoregie Ogbeide-Ihama, who resigned from his position as Executive Director, Strategy & Commercial, to pursue his political aspiration in his home state.

Obahiagbon served in both the Edo State House of Assembly and the National Assembly.

Mr Umeoji, a former member of the Federal House of Representatives representing Aguata Federal Constituency, Anambra State, in the 9th National Assembly, was reappointed as Executive Director, Corporate Services, after resigning to pursue his political ambition in his home state.

All appointments are effective immediately.

Bayo Onanuga
Special Adviser to the President
(Information & Strategy)
June 26, 2026

QuinQQ:
If it was a final judgment he can't overturn it

It was an order which is temporary

fergie001:
Not true.
INEC will respect it asap

Aminda talk am ooooo.. I told Penguin2 months ago, that NDC own is coming!

Yes, it was a matter of time. The aim is not to remove them from the ballot primarily but for psychological things

By Femi Bolaji

Former Deputy Senate Minority Leader, Senator Emmanuel Bwacha, has been affirmed as the sole governorship candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) for the 2027 general election.

The affirmation exercise took place Monday at the Shield Hotel in Jalingo, under the supervision of the party’s State Working Committee and officials from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).


The PDP State Legal Adviser, Muhammad Danlami, confirmed that the process was conducted in strict adherence to the party’s internal guidelines and the Electoral Act.

He said, “In accordance with Section 87(3) of the Electoral Act, where a political party presents a sole aspirant for any office, the party may adopt a consensus or affirmation procedure, subject to the guidelines of the party.”

Speaking immediately after his affirmation, Bwacha noted that his campaign will focus on unity and purposeful leadership.

He emphasised that his quest to lead the state is driven by a desire to uphold righteousness and address the current governance gaps.

He pledged to make infrastructure development, youth empowerment, education, and the agricultural sector the cornerstones of his administration, promising an inclusive government that gives every citizen a sense of belonging.

Addressing the electorate, Bwacha urged citizens to be vigilant against transactional politicians who he warned have begun mobilizing to buy votes.

He advised voters to remain firm, vote according to their conscience, and prioritise the long-term prosperity of the state over temporary financial inducements.

Reflecting on his political journey, Bwacha described his return to the PDP as a strategic move intended to unify the party.


He expressed confidence that the ample time now available for planning and consultation provides a solid foundation to overcome the challenges encountered during the previous election
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.vanguardngr.com/2026/05/senator-bwacha-emerges-pdp-gov-candidate-in-taraba/&ved=2ahUKEwjC19C9uKSVAxXRakEAHYVtItEQFnoECCQQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0TjjM2v2FRPlYQLsUWHv6-

Mynd44
Nlfpmod
Fergie001
Seun
Seunmsg

Svoboda:
I know you were talking about Enugu, and I used Anambra as an illustration. When was the who is who in Enugu not pro Tinubu? At least in 2023 all the former govs were pro Tinubu, including fmr sp nnamani. What has changed? Does obi need big name politicians to sweep to victory in a landslide manner in the southeast?

I told you before. The church is usually decisive in such matters, as far as Enugu and Anambra are concerned.

In 2023 the state governor where not supporting Tinubu. Now, all are in APC. I didn't say obi will not sweep the two states. I said Tinubu will likely get 25% in Enugu, Ebonyi imo

slivertongue:
No!! The votes in the north is huge and Atiku will take more. The votes in the north may not favour the victory of the incumbent

As far as tinubu will get significant votes in the north, that is enough. Atiku will fail woefully down south. Remember buhari usually gets huge northern votes but failed overall

Svoboda:
You remember when APC came second in Anambra guber election under Buhari. Ifeanyi Ubah could have pushed Soludo down to the wire but for his unfortunate demise. I told you before that there's going to be a lot of skirt and blouse voting. One thing you need to know about the SE is that when Obi isn't on the ballot, there's a lot of lukewarmness pervading the air. This is because voters look beyond party in assessing candidates. That's why the bandwagon effect pushes nass candidates in the same party with obi to victory, while those for hoa suffer a lot of losses.

I never said anything about anambra, I am talking about Enugu and other states where the governors have heavy influence. All the who is who in Enugu are in APC plus Mbah is doing well and if they unite for Tinubu, then they can deliver 30-35%. Same in imo and Ebonyi... Obi will still win SE but the margin won't be like 2023.
That skirt and blouse voting works mostly in urban, educated areas not in rural areas. Rural areas mostly vote one way.a popular nass candidate always influence votes for others. Tinubu won Edo north because of oshiomhole, won akpabio zone, won bayelsa east via sylva, won rivers, got votes in Abia north via Ouk, won uzodinma LGA,etc. don't forget Atiku won osun because of Adeleke

slivertongue:
The North will not be as divided as the south not because it has few candidates. In 2023 the north went with Tinubu but his policy actions has destroyed the economy, many homes are in penury. These millions of electorates in the north will vote against him, votes will be shared amongst the three. In the north Atiku will get most, Tinubu then Obi. In the south Tinubu will get more then Obi, Atiku won't secure much. The south has a fairly strong candidates and is a region were the people are objective yet the quantity of votes that will be cast will fall short of the votes of the North which seeks a partner different from the Apc.

From this your analysis, Tinubu is winner

Svoboda:
You can't still assess with a small election. The person they don't want is Tinubu, and not the governor. It happened in 2023, so until we come to that point when it will be obi v Tinubu, or Atiku v Tinubu, we can't talk so confidently for now.

No sir, any area that don't want the president, they also don't want the party. Both are the same.. they detest the both. The SE constantly voted against APC whether buhari is on the ballot or not, same as part of SS. There was a bye election in Enugu after Mbah became governor and nnamani of PDP lost to Lp. If ADC or NDC has won a seat, you will sing a different tone.

Svoboda:
Same way PDP won off cycles in 2014, only to lose 2015. In Enugu north, which parties were the major contenders? Was NDC on the ballot?

What of 2015 and beyond? Did pdp not still win Enugu in 2015? APC winning Enugu is a terrible blow to the opposition. NDC was on the ballot in an area obi party won last time. This people hate APC fiercely. They have been several off cycle in southern kaduna and APC never won before sir until now. They have broken through

The fact is that you can only rig where you have a large level of acceptance. It is crystal clear that Nigerians will still follow Tinubu

slivertongue:
Your writing style is now tamper with mild optimism instead of your usual braggings of the North will give Apc 70% votes. Tinubu squandered the goodwill of Nigerians. No Northern politician can make good his promises to Tinubu. They may win their seats but the people are likely to stop Tinubu like the south did in 2023. Tinubu should take another look at the economy because that will determine his electoral fate.

The north will be divided same as s south which will favour Tinubu

Ofunaofu:
Adeleke's reelection is as clear as day

My brother, it is clear you don't mean well for Nigeria. You just hate APC. If you mean well, you will support good candidates and products across party lines. Adeleke is a bad candidate yet you support him. That is terrible. Tinubu should as well continue

Svoboda:
Which by elections? How can you assess a general election swing by using by elections that had less than 2.5% voter participation? In some cases, not more than two political parties participated. Beyond that, these are heavily concentrated elections where the govs determine over 90% of outcomes.

You can sir. I have been using bye elections to assess general elections and a party's strength and I am hardly incorrect. The 2.5% turnout still represents the average Nigerian electorate and in the main polls, turnout will still be low. If Nigerians want APC out, they will vote any other alternatives sir desperately... Enugu apart from Anambra is Apc weakest point. APC there fails woefully. There have been two reruns there since 2023 and in both, PDP the ruling party struggled to win. But now APC is winning massively. That shows acceptance for APC growing whether you like it or not. Ekiti has never recorded above 200k but that was surpassed. Why? The truth is bare..

It is good you said that governors heavily manipulated the polls even though I can mention several off cycle where governors couldn't. This also means during the general elections, governors will still manipulate some areas which will see the president through

slivertongue:
Hard data was thrown up in 2023 yet he surmounted it. You are at liberty to call 2027 a walk in the pack but do not force your narrative on the public. Obi had no major money bag but the young people who trusted him. Obi wasnt on a major platform except for the young people who were the major platform. Obi had no this and that except the young people who formed his this and that.

APC folks should leave Atiku, Obi and Kwankwanso alone and market their party. The masses are asking for deliverables not names of opposition party members. The Nigeria of today isn't for fruitless banter and the throwing up of stats for victory, but for service by those elected to serve.

I can't be an APC supporter and spend my time on another candidate instead of marketing my party's performance. The refusal of APC folks to focus their party's performance and its impact on the people speaks volumes and the people know what to do. Those of you promoting the notion that there will voter aparthy in some places which will benefit the incumbent or that the election will be rigged in favour of the incumbent are oversimplifying matters. You've not asked what if the electorates troop out in there numbers vote and protect their votes all the way to the state coalition centers. Nigerians are no more buying the narrative that it is over before it is over.

The electorates I know will still vote Tinubu than obi. Obi will try but come up short as usual

Svoboda:
Is Obiano back in Nigeria?

I don't know. The bye elections win was the heaviest victory for APC since 2015, I have never witnessed such margins. Obi and Atiku are wasting their time

Svoboda:
Obi wasn't also on the ballot in 2021 but campaigned for Val Ozigbo in PDP in 2021 guber election. Apga won 21-0, defeating Val in Aguata as well as Obi in Anaocha. 2 yrs later, Obi ran as presidential candidate of labour party, and swept the whole Anambra electoral landscape by winning almost 100% of the votes. This same sequence was repeated between 2017, when Obiano ran and won his second term against Oseloka obaze of the PDP, who was Obis candidate, and 2019 when Obi ran as RM to Atiku Abubakar, winning Anambra landslide. You see, the example of 2025 election has a precedence, and just didn't happen for the first time in George Muoghalus case.

I am taking pains to give you this perspective. Elections in Anambra have their peculiarities. You can as well glean from the two or three instances I cited above, that Obis candidate always lost in the guber vote, but Obi always won the presidential vote landslide, despite not recieving support from the incumbent governors then, and despite apga fielding candidates for president and nass. Whatever happened in 2025 was just a repeat of this sequence.

2027 will not be different. The same people who voted for Soludo overwhemingly in 2025 would move like a herd to thumbprint massively for Obi in 2027. That has been the pattern since 2019. The major determinants in Anambra politics are the church and the town unions. Not Soludo or apga structure. That day, apga structure will melt to insignificance in the heat of the massive support Obi would amass across board.

Obi won't score up to 90%. Soludo and Obiano will give significant votes from their lgas, Obiano did it 2019