₦airaland Forum

markfemi1:
Uba Sani lost the election.
We were all on this forum when Isa Ashiru was leading and all of a sudden they did their abracadabra.
I know El Rufai regrets that action till date.

Hmmmm. Let's see how it goes

sleek214:
Next governor of Kaduna state

Not possible sir. After Sani, it's Yero

Svoboda:
The problem Tinubu has is that he's so unpopular that he won't get any protest votes at all from those disillusioned with either Atiku or Obi. They'd rather refrain from voting altogether. In other words, no one who despises Atiku would choose to vote Tinubu. That'd be like cutting your nose to spite your face.

The first lady's optics in recent days aren't also helping Tinubu. The less she appears in public, the better. But I think they have a penchant for raw arrogance.

This is not true if not southern kaduna, parts of Edo, akwa ibom, bayelsa will not be embracing Tinubu. A lot of those that will vote Tinubu will do so reluctantly not that they like him. Is Babachir Lawal and Dogara no longer with Atiku? What of bwala

Svoboda:
I didn't Sanwo Olu betrayed Tinubu, I only pointed that out to butress my point that nothing is guaranteed when you're relying on other power centres other than yours to win, which is exactly what Tinubu is doing, unlike Buhari.

Atiku won Gombe in 2023, with an APC gov. The PDP gov candidate lost. What difference does it make in the final analysis? You yourself projected Atiku to win Gombe because of the preponderance of the Fulani in that state, and now you go jubilating over the defection of the state adc sec.

I didn't say Atiku will lose Gombe. I pointed to the defections to show how Atiku is getting weaker in the north and how his winning margins will reduce...
Atiku won not because of only fulanis but also because of a divided APC, Dankwambo machinery, Pantami factor plus Southern Gombe. The party was complacent and underestimated PDP. Governor Yahaya will slug it out with Dankwambo to give Tinubu more votes unlike the unpopular saidu Alkali. Pantami in PDP cannot work for Atiku again. APC has compensated Gombe South with a Christian candidate plus Jamilu Gwamna will want to impress tinubu by working extra hard

Nwaikpe:
If you ask if Obi can win primaries such as the one in APC,
The answer is NO!
He doesn't have the dollars to do that.

If you ask if Obi can win a primary that is conducted by the people,
The answer is YES, he has his mob.
That is politics.

Politics is a game of numbers.
Controlling the few with money has its limits.
Owning the loyalty of the majority is POLITICS.

But I know you won't understand.
Because to you, owning 35 governors is more important than owning ALL Nigerians.
That is why your TINUBU is never referred to as a world-class politician.
His politics dies when the current nature of politics practiced IN NIGERIA dies.

Tinubu is a world class politician that's why he has been in the game since 1990 with heavy success. Obi has the money and dollars but refusing to deploy it hypocritically is bad politics. Tinubu has his tentacles outside Nigeria. He has helped install presidents in Ghana, Guinea, has allies in France, UK, Us which obi can never have. How many allies does obi has? The only political advantage obi has is his movement which shows how limited and poor he is politically.
If Tinubu success is just based on money, he would have failed by now. It is beyond money. It encompasses so many things which obi lacks. Can obi form a party, build it, settle disputes? I know you love obi but he is politically below Tinubu

Svoboda:
Cc Akpakomiza2

We've dwelt on this skirt and blouse phenomenon in the north for long. We also talked about it just now. The fact is, the north realized that only Tinubu and his troupe make the APC so unpopular.

It's normal. There are some in ADC that will also vote against Atiku

Svoboda:
Story! Same way Sanwo Olu was dealt with after Tinubu lost lagos. Tinubu knows he could be imperiled by the govs and that was why he made them sole ticket distributors in their respective states. Even at that, that Greek gift still seems inadequate. A lot of the govs are coming face to face with an angry electorate high on an anti Tinubu sentiment.

The adc sec defecting is the same way pantami defected.

Pantami left to PDP which is aligned to Tinubu and not to ADC or NDC, spot the difference. Besides Pantami worked against Tinubu 2023.. So the defection to ADC is a bigger blow for you. We discussed this before.
Betrayal is consistent or common place in politics and in life generally. While Tinubu depend on governors to an extent, he knows nothing is certain in politics and has other alternatives unlike Obi and Atiku. Sanwoolu never betrayed Tinubu, losing Lagos even next year is a big possibility. The ADC in Katsina has been factionalized with two Guber candidates. Ex DSS boss Lawal daura is livid

AMINDA:
Lol. In one breath, you claim Gawuna is irrelevant and in the next one, you say his leaving will be a huge loss to Obi and Kwankwaso. Should we then say that his joining the ADC will be a huge win for the party or he's still irrelevant?

I never said Gawuna isn't relevant. Someone that almost became a governor? He has a high chance of winning Abba in NDC than Gwarzo. In ADC, he won't do much. Atiku has no footing in kano

Nwaikpe:
"world-class politician indeed."

It's just like Robert Mugabe claiming the same because he totally controlled the country. Or Paul Barthélemy Biya of Cameroon, saying the same because he hand-picks every political office holder.

World-class is when you HAVE A MOVEMENT that others can say you may be a loser, but you succeed in building.


Trump - MAGA
Farage - MBGA
Obi - Obedients


What about Tinubu?
Is it "R o n u miscreants?"

Having zombified and moblike movement is not world class politics but navigating victories from impossible situations. Can obi win primaries in any party? Can obi support multiple candidates to win, can obi install governors and even a president? Could obi have won the Apc ticket if he was faced by with hurdles tinubu faced? You clearly do not know politics hence your stance

slivertongue:
He would have contributed to the basket but his decision is final. I don't even see how that will happen because he isn't an adc member right now. Above all he contributed nothing to ok in 2023 so they can navigate without him

He can still move pending the final court judgment. Moving to ADC is best for his career, he would stagnate in NDC but can be governor in APC or ADC. They can navigate without him at the presidential level certainly not at the Guber level. Gwarzo cannot win Abba

lawani:
Maybe five percent of Ilorin Emirate can claim non Yoruba paternal ancestry. It is not a Fulani emirate like Sokoto and Kano but Ilorin emirate. A Yoruba Oba Momoh has been Emir paternally from Iwo and that was before independence. The current Emir is from Gambari which is a mix of Hausa, Nupe and Bariba by paternal ancestry. Ilorin is only a Fulani emirate in the minds of ignorant people. In Ilorin anybody can be Emir and not only Fulani and they have been Emir. Then the non religious owner of the land that put the place under British protection is Balogun Ajikobi or don't you think who signed the protection agreement is the owner of the land? Ajikobi was traditionally in charge of the place in the 1890s.

There is no pure anything. Nobody in Ilorin is pure anything. You belong to your father's compound.

Very laughable. Don't mind him

ADC are fielding strong candidates in North west and weak ones in north east.

slivertongue:
What pleases him is okay

Up up Abba. A big blow to kwankwaso and obi

AMINDA:
The same reason why Bishop Hassan Kukah has suddenly gone mute. Go figure!

No need. Sk is gone to Uba and APC. Central and North will be divided. No chance for kudan

AMINDA:
The Atiku is already fundamentally flawed by saying that Atiku is making his sixth attempt at the presidency. 2027 will be his fourth attempt. Just as 2015 was Buhari’s fourth attempt. In previous occasions, he didn't clinch the ticket and wasn't on the ballot. 2027 will also be Obi's third attempt on the ballot.

He will be buried politically next year

AMINDA:
Lol. List the projects that he has carried out in Southern Kaduna. Anyways time is a gentleman.

I don't have that time. Tell us why southern kaduna have started supporting APC.

AMINDA:
So kindly explain why Tinubu lost Lagos as a candidate on the ballot. Should we take it that the likes of Sanwo-olu, Gbajabiamila, Obasa and Tinubu himself are overhyped? After Kano, Kaduna was the Northern state that delivered the highest number of votes to Tinubu in the Northwest. Do you think Atiku is a small politician? Elrufai lost Kaduna to Atiku but Tinubu lost Lagos to Obi. Goal-Goal.

It is not compulsory for a governor to win his state, the key word is deliver significant votes. Tinubu won and governors played significant role. Makinde was in PDP but Atiku lost Oyo. Atiku is not small but he is no match for Tinubu. Atiku has grown weaker

AMINDA:
Is that what you have been told? Southern Kaduna largely voted LP in 2023. With the alignment with Isah Ashiru, Elrufai's base has simply merged with the traditional PDP bloc that transcended both Northern and Southern Kaduna. Beyond propaganda, Uba Sani has been very lacklustre and uninspiring. He has performed woefully and all his promises to Southern Kaduna are still uncompleted and abandoned. The quality of his projects also leave much to be desired. They are very substandard and do not compare to Elrufai's.

This is very untrue. Sani has outperformed El rufai. He has sited more projects in SK more than any other governor. Rufai hardly had any project in SK that is why he was hated. You hardly hear of insecurity. For the first time ever, APC cleared southern kaduna which gave Kudan his largest votes in the last cycle. Most of those that supported Kudan have abandoned him.

AMINDA:
Lol. Tinubu got his margins in the North because the likes of Elrufai worked hard with their messaging, convincing Northerners to return a favour. That was why he got 5.6m votes in the North that made him president. He only won 4 Yoruba states out of 17 Southern states. Obi defeated him resoundingly in the South.

El rufai that lost kaduna? Stop over hyping El rufai. There are people who quietly delivered, rufai isnt. Obi won the south narrowly. Tinubu resoundingly humiliated Atiku up north and south

Svoboda:
How many govs are even staking their reelection on Tinubus victory? Perhaps only in the southwest, except, of course, Oyo.

Govs in other zones in the APC can actually win without Tinubu. The support is the other way round. Tinubu needs them to win 2027 because he has no organic support, unlike a Buhari. In fact, in the north, a lot of those APC govs will tactically distance themselves from the president towards the election.

Any governor that does that will be dealt with two weeks after. ADC secretary in Gombe has defected

AMINDA:
Uba Sani "won" the last election by less than 10,000 votes. Do with that what you will.

Now that he has won over southern kaduna, it will be easier

Macphenson:
Okowa that couldn't deliver himself as a VP?

Dey play.

When Agege was in APC, what did they take

Macphenson:
Seriaki Dickson will deliver his state, APC will have issues with Omo Agege in Delta State.

Dickson cannot deliver bayelsa. Agege has never delivered delta, reduce the lies

slivertongue:
Allow folks in kd and NW to lead. NL should engender discourse that educates. The party this party that doesn't often help

I am assessing Uba Sani and kudan from a personality angle

AMINDA:
Was it because Sanwo-olu betrayed Tinubu that made him lose Lagos while winning his own re-election? How about David Umahi in Ebonyi and Uzodinma in Imo? Did they betray Tinubu too? What about other APC states where Tinubu lost but the governors won their own re-election?

At least they gave Tinubu sufficient votes while Atiku your master fell short. That was the decider and it will happen again

slivertongue:
Allow those there to respond to your thread. Don't lead the discourse

I can do the launching or trailblazing

AMINDA:
I hope you do not mistake the governors winning their re-elections under the APC to be tantamount to the people voting for Tinubu? Don't come back to claim the governors betrayed you. You are the one building castles in the sand.

A large number of those voting governors will vote Tinubu. Tinubu getting reelected means governors getting reelected easily, it is a bandwagon system. Besides, no reasonable governor will betray Tinubu for useless politicians like obi and Atiku

Caseless:
Who is this one? You now decide for Sokoto people? What's the achievement of the current governor to warrant a return?

Tambuwal also didn't perform.

Just like in 2019, 2023 he will still lose. He is the regular customer of kaduna state.

Coolgent:
Hon. Manir Dana Iya....
He was Tambuwal aide between 2010 to 2015, later Tambuwal appointed him as commissioner of local government, 2015 to 2018, His Deputy governor 2018 2023.

What are his chances objectively

Eriokanmi:
This is 2026. Wake up! Most of the actors in the game are exposing tinubu and his tactics already and they do know how to checkmate him. Elrufai was one of them, who helped in the massive rigging. More cans of warms will be opened ahead of 2027. It won't be businessas usual.
Watch out!

El rufai that lost kaduna or where