₦airaland Forum

Svoboda:
Close isn't good enough. As long as Obi is a major contender, Tinubu is going to hover between 5% and 10% in the southeast. Fear the catholic and Anglican denominations in the SE.

Was obi not a contender on the ticket in 2019? Don't forget the Anglicans rival the Catholics and will vote against obi. Again, Ebonyi, Abia and Enugu are dominated by Pentecostal churches. Close is good enough, Tinubu doesn't need 25% in SE as long as he will get it in other states.

AMINDA:
Everywhere will be divided. Whoever emerges with the highest margin will become president and as at today, the odds favour the Atiku/Amaechi ticket.

It does not favour him sir. From this poll, he will come last. If sw is the decider, Tinubu wins. Anything division of votes favours Tinubu because he will pick votes everywhere, obi and Atiku cant

Validated:
Did you read the report? NDC currently leads APC by 44% to 25%. The remaining 23% are undecided, meaning they lean on either side.
However, nationality, NDC is OK.

Same sbm predicted obi in 2027

Svoboda:
Going by this projection, Tinubu is one foot away from losing his re-election. Even if all the 23% undecided were to go for him, it won't materialize to much. This is the region he is expected to win handsomely, considering his general unpopularity and lack of genuine organic support.

Going by that poll, we can agree that obi will win north west, divide north east and win the presidency?

Bluna:
I can only talk about where I reside.
Based on popular opinion so far, APC will struggle in Ondo, but NDC is not popular here.

One thing I've observed is that Southwest will likely experience low turnout in 2027. Many people that voted in 2023 have already lost interest in this next election.

The reason Tinubu will likely be reelected is not because he is popular, but because Atiku and Obi won't contest together on a joint ticket. This would've been the only combo to unseat Tinubu and secure victory for the opposition.

Exactly. Tinubu highest winning margin will come from Ondo. SW turnout is usually 3.5 mil since 2015

AMINDA:
As I have always maintained, the Southwest remains the most dynamic region in terms of voting pattern, only next to the Northcentral. Unfortunately for Tinubu, that is his only base. Votes will be split here, and even if Tinubu ends up with the highest votes cast here, it won't amount to much.

Where will Atiku get his votes since north east will be divided

Svoboda:
Nothing like that in this particular instance. Obi is to southeast what even Tinubu isn't to the southwest. It's like Peter Obi kept them under a spell. That's the reality. Tinubu will struggle to even generate his much touted 25% in any of those states.

What will atiku generate? Tinubu will get close to 25% in Imo , Enugu and Ebonyi this time just like buhari 2019

franchasng:
What evidence do you have to prove that Tinubu actually won because even at the Presidential Election Tribunal, INEC refused to produce the form EC8As they used to declare Tinubu winner when Obi challenged them to produce it, instead they said it's Peter Obi's responsibility to produce it to prove them wrong. The irev server they collected billions to build as guarantee backup for electoral result, they switched it off and refused to allow results to be uploaded even after making their criminal declaration because they realized the results that were later uploaded contradicted their declaration so they stopped the upload when Nigerians started challenging them.


That 2023 Presidential election result was fabricated by INEC. Peter Obi won the election but got robbed by Buhari/APC/Tinubu through INEC.

You see, you have failed to prove anything. Even obi has never said he won it. Better stop the infantile delusion

franchasng:
Tinubu did not win 2023 Presidential election, you guys should stop saying this rubbish based on the fabricated result INEC showed you gullible Nigerians.


Peter Obi won 2023 Presidential election. The people that worked under Buhari to install Tinubu thinking he would depart under health challenges for Shettima to take over and return the power to North have confessed secretly after Tinubu sidelined them the Buhari camp.



Peter Obi came first, Tinubu came second while Atiku came third but they intentionally gave Obi third to demoralize him and Obidient from making future attempts.


If you know the caliber of Northerners that reached out to Kwankwaso secretly to convince him to deputize Peter Obi, you will remain silent forever on Nigeria's political discussions.


It was Northerners under Buhari that made Tinubu President. Tinubu never won at all and he knows this truth.



Peter Obi knows he would win under any party, he is only worried about defending the votes and getting declared. This is why he worked hard to get a strong Northern Muslim to deputize him which his former running mate Datti doesn't want to understand because he thinks it's by gragra alone.....



Obi knows that the only challenge is defending his winning at the polls knowing how brutal Tinubu is in politics....and that is why he challenged Nigerians that if they don't want election to be rigged, that it will not be rigged, that the fight to defend votes should not be left for the Presidential candidate alone if Nigerians want a better Nigeria.



Based on exclusive information Obi have, he confided in Dele Momodu as a friend that he is more popular than Atiku that Atiku should just play a fatherly, elite role and allow him represent the coalition but Atiku refused because he relied on the fabricated 2023 Presidential election result where he was awarded second ahead of Obi that actually came first.

What evidence do you have to show that obi won

AMINDA:
Sanwo-olu failed to deliver Lagos because both himself and Tinubu lacked the capacity and popularity. True or false? Tinubu has the North to thank for his victory. He was totally flawed by Obi in the South. That is the point we are trying to make.

The point is that oshiomhole delivered his zone and Tinubu beat Atiku who took second home and away

AMINDA:
I thought Tinubu was the Southern candidate? Why then did he fail to win Edo? You also told us governors will deliver their states because they are now in the APC. Can you kindly tell us why Obaseki failed to deliver his state to Atiku and why Jide Sanwo-olu also failed to do the same for Tinubu? I am waiting.

Obaseki failed because he has no capacity or popularity. Oshiomhole is a senator and delivered his district. Your Atiku lost the north to Tinubu. How many times will you bring this topic? Tinubu won and that closed the chapter, Atiku is a loser and will keep losing

AMINDA:
Oshiomole couldn't deliver his state to Tinubu in 2023. Obi won Edo state.

He delivered his senatorial zone, Obaseki who was the governor couldn't deliver his state for your Atiku.

xtianchris:
Guns Ablazing comes to mind

How

Figger:
Gaza means sand in Arabic

It is an Eggon name and means something different

Svoboda:
You're getting it all wrong. I don't hate Tinubu. I couldn't have hated whom I supported in 2023 over my fellow constituent.

I just don't agree with his style of governance since he assumed power. He has since derailed from the true ideals of the APC.

Tinubu isn't on the level of Obj in terms of statehood. Post civil war story of Nigeria won't be complete without Objs historical imprints.

Tinubu is recognizing pro democracy activists something a vindictive obj failed to do. Does APC truly have an ideal or objectives? Tinubu is the real APC, the true brain behind it. Buhari represented socialist ideals, Tinubu is a core capitalist

Svoboda:
Tinubu wants an illusionary cult followership. Everything has to be about him. Even Obasanjo, in his flamboyance, didn't dwell in this idealism of commissioning monuments named after him when in office.

It's not enough that MKO never became the president that Tinubu is today. It's enough that MKOs illustrious history is consigned to the past, with no reference to his legacy and struggle.

But Tinubu can never be a Buhari, nor an MKO. He lacks the presence and charisma. So much for an Omoluabi.

Your hate for Tinubu is nauseating. Tinubu has surpassed both sha

fergie001:
Don't we know the winner of 2027 already?

A lot do not

Svoboda:
That bandwagon effect might fail woefully. Fintiri might not even struggle to win his election.

It has never failed esp in the rural areas and not with an unpopular candidate like Atiku. Fintiri is dominant in Adamawa north esp with Abbo not contesting. The Apc considered christians and non fulanis unlike ADC that fielded Muslim fulanis all through...

The fact is that as far as political gladiators like Wamakko, Badaru, Aliero, Yari, Geidam, Lamido, masari, Hunkuyi etc are with you, they will always give you 30% of their states. They are like kwankwaso in their domains with fierce loyal, die hard supporters. They delivered for PDP from 2003-2011 even against almighty Buhari. Is it Atiku that will stop them? Tambuwal in 2019 delivered 40% of sokoto to Atiku, Lamido gave Atiku 25% of jigawa. Atiku apart from winning southern kaduna got 30% of northern kaduna because of Hunkuyi. Can you tell me that kwankwaso will not deliver 30% of Kano for obi? The reality is that tinubu will divide core north unless his allies betray him

Svoboda:
Yes, the same tactical support she gave Atiku in 2023. Babachir is paperweight. Fintiri will be too absorbed in his senatorial race to do any heavy lifting for Tinubu on election day. Ribadu is also overrated. If the Christians are endeared to Fintiri, why didn't he pick a Christian candidate to complete the circle he was drawing?

Most Adamawa Christians have always been with Fintiri, irrespective. But not now that he's leaving. Mind you, Adamawa tends to switch parties at the end of an incumbents second term.

Did Bindowo finished his tenure before the switch? Babachir is a paperweight but a lot of Christian northerners are very sensitive and emotional, they tend to listen to such people who speak in favour of their religion. They are easily swayed once religion is involved...

Fintiri contesting for senate is exactly why Tinubu will benefit. Many of those that will vote him will vote other APC voters en masse from top to down. This is commonplace in rural areas.... The Apc candidate is a product of Ribadu not Fintiri. Fintiri candidate is tagwami a Christian. The agreement was for Ribadu to produce governor, Fintiri running mate

Svoboda:
So, Abbo did anti party? Because he contested and won senate under APC in 2023. So, not having Abbo will make Atiku lose Adamawa? As for seriake and Binani, story! Nigerian politics is simply too complex for straitjackets. You cant regiment politicians, least of all Binani.

Binani can support Atiku covertly not openly. She could have done it far better in ADC or another party with no presidential interests. Tinubu is aware of potential betrayers that is why he has several campaign teams and his core loyallists are in charge. His son Seyi has 4 campaign groups alone and counting....the fact of the matter is that with Fintiri in APC alongside Babachir, Tinubu will get more votes in Adamawa and atiku less though Atiku will win. The balkanization of Adamawa Emirates by Fintiri has endeared him to the christians

Svoboda:
Was abbo ever with Atiku until adc? Did Binani also tell you she's got problems with Atiku?

So Binani will abandon Atiku for obi or Tinubu?

Abbo supported Atiku in 2023 immediately tinubu declared shettima, same with bwala and Dogara while Babachir went obi, have you forgotten so soon? Binani cannot work for Atiku as far as she is in NDC, it seems you don't know Dickson. Whatever she does will be limited. Besides Atiku has picked a candidate for ADC.

Svoboda:
Fingers crossed.

Kebbi, sokoto, Katsina, Gombe, Adamawa, Jigawa, bauchi cannot overturn Kano, kogi, kwara, rivers, delta, Edo, akwa ibom, benue, cross river, Lagos, Ogun, Oyo except it is not mathematics

Svoboda:
I'm talking of now. I'm telling you a lot of northern APC chieftains will do anti party. They did it to both Jonathan and Obj, but the danger for Tinubu is that unlike both Obj and Gej, he is so unpopular across the south that those who wouldn't want to vote either obi or Atiku would completely opt out of voting completely.

You are not in APC so you wouldn't know. They have always done it and failed. Tinubu is not banking on winning the north outright like Atiku so he can afford to fail here and there. He has a lot of cushion, Atiku doesn't

fergie001:
Obi was his choice in 2027.
Obi was never his choice in 2023. He needed money and assured the Govs he will pick one of them. Ihedioha. Is going for Imo Gov under ADC. There are little or no options actually!

So sad. Imagine you are stuck with people like ihediohw, Duke, nwajiuba, amechi

Svoboda:
He won't get the spread. Will Tinubu get the highest votes cast, or is our constitution blind to this scenario?

Tinubu will get all. When he beats Atiku in Kano, Yobe Borno, Taraba,north central, how will atiku surmount that? There is absolutely no big voting state Atiku has to turn the tide... When the election gets very tight, the difference may come down to what Atiku gets in south, what Tinubu gets in north, what the running mates deliver

Svoboda:
Same way Atiku will take over Tinubus votes in the northwest. Tinubu is unsellable. A lot of APC chieftains in the north will play anti party. Their collective anger is against Tinubus govt.

In Kano, have senator kawu and co been settled?

The votes Tinubu will get in Kano will dampen Atiku's chances. Atiku has gotten weaker in north west .Tinubu won 2 states in north west so he doesn't need to stress himself much. Atiku is largely unsellable that is why he can't be president.
That strategy of banking on infighting or sabotage within a party has never worked, why not just build your party. Even if they want to work against Tinubu, Atiku doesn't offer much prospects. Obi is a no no. No one rewards loyallists like Tinubu. Tinubu can always settle kawu, how will atiku settle Binani and Abbo who are more dangerous

Svoboda:
In 2023, Atiku didn't lose because Okowa failed to deliver delta state. He failed because northerners heeded buharis call to vote Tinubu. This was largely midwifed by El rufai and co. Atiku would be a fool to believe Amaechi can win the south for him. He'd only lose if he loses majority votes in the north, which is most unlikely. Has Tinubu won new voters in the north? Your guess is as good as mine.

You are not good in electoral calculations. Even if the north delivered Atiku, he still failed to get the spread in the south and necessary votes. In national elections, you need all the help you can. Atiku can't do it alone. All those around Atiku are liabilities. What is the need of picking a running mate who can help you achieve the spread? Even if shettima loses Borno/ Yobe, he will get Tinubu significant votes. This is a key difference

Svoboda:
What political influence does the minister have? Has APC settled sen Leah? You don't know that Atiku currently dominates Kd north and central. Just ask around.

He is influential in kaduna south. I know Atiku dominates northern kaduna as of 2023 but we don't know as of now with the massive defections to APC of people like Sen Hunkuyi, Yero, Sambo.

simpleseyi:
.
Meaning that you should stop whatever you just started smoking

I wanted to say can't not can. Amechi even gave 66k not 100k

simpleseyi:
.
When Amaechi was Rivers governor in 2015, he got about 109K votes for Buhari while Wike wrote 1.4 million votes for Jonathan

Meaning

Svoboda:
In 2023, you didn't see the voters defy governors? Besides, what's Tinubus selling point? Every governing index seems to stand against him.

Besides, the Christian areas you're talking about are slippery. Let him just make sure he's in the good books of the Catholics as well as other northern Christian denominations. This is because once obis campaign gains momentum, it'd have the potential of upstaging Tinubu. Remember, the Mu-Mu ticket is still as much a factor as hunger and insecurity.

The chief of defence staff Musa has started mobilizing the Christian and minority north for Tinubu. Kaduna is slipping out of Atiku hands

Svoboda:
Even Tinubu lacks your kind of confidence.

You are not a psychic to read Tinubu's mind. Shettima is not as useless as amechi who can't deliver votes from his base. I think that is the defining factor between the running mates