Appleyard's Posts
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LordAdam16:Enter the Burevestnik. ![]() |
LordAdam16:They were never prepared for peace. The talk was just to buy time to get their much needed assets in position across the region. Now that the last ship has arrived, let the fireworks begin. No chicken out this time. The Houthis have already moved into striking positions. Meanwhile, Chinese soy ship is lurking within range of the carrier. Persia is ready for whatever. iran should launch pre-emptive strikes enough is enough - |
LordAdam16: |
So the US uses the F35 air-to-air missile costing $2.2 million dollars to take down a $20k unarmed surveillance drone just to show force. The way the MIC rips the American taxpayers of their money is beyond pathetic. |
LordAdam16:It means war is imminent. |
WriterrNg:In March 2008, former French President Jacques Chirac said, "Without Africa, France will slide down into the rank of a third nation." In 2019, and also recently, Georgia Meloni of Italy openly stated that without the exploitation of African nations by France, especially via the CFA, France would amount to nothing short of a third-world nation. Well, as it's turning out to be, these predictions have proved to be accurate; thanks to Niger, Burkinafaso, and Mali kicking them out. With others like Senegal and co gradually towing similar lines, French citizens will start looking for greener pastures soon like Africans. What goes around comes around. ![]() |
LordAdam16:Now, Iran has the excuse to also shoot down their drones over the Strait and damn the consequences. |
WriterrNg: you no lie, the post dey harsh but e talk plenty truth.Aircraft carrier really na glorified air base for water. Just pour asphalt on steel, pack jets, and pray say nothing go reach am. The whole hype dey come from how expensive e be, not because e be invincible. And the fact say e need plenty “cheap improvised” ships to survive already tell you everything. If the thing strong by itself, why e need escort of destroyers, frigates, submarines, supply ships, plus aircraft on top again? One carrier no fit move alone without forming convoy like Nigerian state governors. For modern war, carrier slow, big, and broadcast itself like lighthouse. With today’s: --hypersonic missiles --long-range anti-ship ballistic missiles --cheap drones and swarm tactics --satellites tracking every movement that big flat deck just dey shout “aim here.” China and Iran don already build their entire doctrine around killing carriers, not fighting them head-on. When the Russian MoD said na just one Zircon seabased hypersonic missile dem go use take decommission the British new Carrier 'HMS Queen Elizabeth', dem no dey joke. And yes, the only real job of a carrier na to launch aircraft and house troops. If you already get land bases nearby, the carrier suddenly lose value fast. That’s why near peer conflicts no dey rely on them the way Cold War movies show. The carrier matter pass only when: --enemy weak --air defenses poor --missiles limited --or you dey bully smaller states Against a serious opponent? E turn to political symbol and liability. Lose one and the psychological, financial, and political damage go pass the military benefit. So yeah, aircraft carrier no be useless for everything — but for modern high-end war, e dey look more like an expensive relic trying to survive in a missile age. Big, slow, flashy… and constantly hiding behind escorts. |
WriterrNg:I know it's always hard for our mendacious brothers on the other side to admit the fact that the supposed almighty US is seeking external help from allies to support its ailing shipbuilding needs. But, this is the reality. There is nothing wrong with asking for help from your allies, but it's factual the US no longer compete in modern shipbuilding. The reasons are obvious. Again, you just can't compare US and Russian sea power based on sheer size and numbers of vessels possessed --- each country's strategic interest and geopolitical posturing plays the key role in determining what vessel type, tonnage, and quantity to build. Here is a report on how the US and Russian ship building industry fairs currently. As of early 2026, the US and Russian shipbuilding industries are facing sharply contrasting situations: the US is struggling with capacity bottlenecks, high costs, and urgent modernization needs, while Russia, despite sanctions, has significantly increased its shipbuilding pace, particularly in the Arctic and for its navy, even while grappling with severe industrial efficiency issues . US Shipbuilding Industry (2025–2026) The US shipbuilding sector is experiencing what analysts call a "real crisis" or the "worst in 25 years," characterized by a severe lack of capacity and significant delays. Capacity & Delays: Roughly 37 of 45 battle-force ships under construction as of December 2025 faced delays, with major programs like the Constellation-class frigate years behind schedule. Production Bottlenecks: The US has largely lost its commercial shipbuilding sector, and its remaining yards are specialized, high-cost, and unable to produce ships at the speed needed to counter competitors. Strategic Shift: To combat this, the US is looking to partner with South Korea and Japan to build or repair US ships, and in late 2025/early 2026, initiated plans to build icebreakers in Finland. Future Outlook: The 2025 plan aims to grow the fleet to 390 ships by 2054, but faces a near-term dip to 283 ships by 2027. Russian Shipbuilding Industry (2025–2026) Russia has accelerated its shipbuilding pace, outpacing the United States in speed over the last five years and focusing on both military strength and Arctic capabilities. Record Production: In 2025, Russian shipyards delivered 129 to 132 civilian vessels, a 10-year high, while maintaining a steady pace of military production, including submarines and surface combatants. Massive Investment: The government has launched a $6 billion-plus plan to build over 1,600 vessels by 2036, aimed at bolstering its merchant fleet and securing the Northern Sea Route. Sanctions & Challenges: Despite successes, the industry is struggling with the impact of Western sanctions, which have caused a shortage of critical components and technological, economic, and logistical bottlenecks. Workforce & Efficiency: The industry suffers from "chronic financial weakness" and low efficiency, leading to planned, massive layoffs (up to 70% in some key yards) as part of a restructuring to improve productivity. Key Comparisons Arctic Dominance: Russia holds a massive advantage in the Arctic, with 57 icebreakers compared to a very small US fleet. Strategic Focus: The US is attempting to pivot toward "distributed maritime operations" with smaller, autonomous ships to counter China, while Russia is expanding its capacity for both large-tonnage naval vessels and industrial, specialized ships. International Partnerships: The US is turning to foreign allies (South Korea, Japan, Finland) to build capacity, while Russia is increasingly looking for alternative supply routes to bypass sanctions. |
Dvdpity:That would be extreme. Radioactive fallout will kill or maim thousands of innocent people. |
WriteerNg:Ah yes. The sacred Three-Step Plan™. Because nothing has ever scared a nuclear-armed state like a well-formatted escalation flowchart. Let’s break down why this is comedy, not strategy. ![]() Step 1: Diplomatic warnings within 24 hours Fantastic. Russia violates the ceasefire, and the response is… a strongly worded statement. Maybe two. Possibly with the word “deeply concerned.” Moscow has been living off Western warnings since 2014. At this point they probably document them. ![]() Step 2: European military intervention. This is where the plan really shines. Europe—still debating tank deliveries, ammo production, and who pays for what—is supposed to agree, mobilize, and intervene militarily against Russia in record time? Sure. The same Europe that needs three summits and a translator to agree on lunch. Also, intervene how? Air defense? Troops? Naval assets? “Military intervention” is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. Step 3: US-backed military response within 72 hours. This is the best joke of all. The United States does not go to war with Russia because a pre-agreed timer expired. Washington doesn’t even go to war with Iraq on a schedule—let alone a nuclear peer. The idea that the White House will say, “Well folks, the spreadsheet says we’re at Step 3,” is pure fantasy. And the core problem they keep dodging: who decides Russia violated the ceasefire? Was it a drone? Artillery? A proxy unit? A “miscommunication”? Russia will drown every incident in ambiguity. By the time NATO finishes arguing over attribution, the ceasefire violation will be three news cycles old. Clowns. Minsk didn’t fail because it lacked an escalation ladder. It failed because ceasefires don’t work when one side thinks continuing the war is still beneficial. No amount of laminated enforcement plans changes that. So what is this really about? Reassuring Western audiences. Signaling resolve. Giving officials something to point at and say, “This time we mean it.” Moscow isn’t intimidated by press conferences, timelines, or PowerPoint arrows. It’s intimidated by battlefield realities and unavoidable costs—neither of which are created by a 72-hour countdown clock. This is pure comedy, not deterrence. It’s role-playing toughness. And Russia has already skipped the tutorial and moved on to the main game. Clowns. |
LordAdam16:Your write-ups always excite the best of geopolitical minds. But, allow me to add to this with some facts. Firstly, Erdogan going to Riyadh and Cairo in the same week is not random. Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt don’t suddenly trust each other—but they all share one interest right now: avoiding a regional war that wrecks trade, energy routes, and cause internal stability. That’s the real driver. Talk of a brand-new “security architecture” sounds promising, but in reality this is about coordination and damage control, not a NATO-style alliance. They have seen the resolve from the Iranian side on this occasion – if we burn, the entire region will burn. They understood Iran’s readiness for total war and they're not prepared for the repercussions. Secondly, I think the idea of a united Shia–Sunni bloc is also overstated. These aforementioned Gulf states are not aligning with Iran ideologically. They’re just hedging. After the 2019 Abqaiq, followed by Gaza, and Red Sea disruptions, they’ve learned that escalation hurts them first and the most affected. Qatar throwing money at Iran fits its usual playbook—cash to buy influence and keep fires away from its backyard. On Iran, you’re very correct. Tehran’s demands haven’t changed since Trump jump ship in 2018: full sanctions relief, release of frozen assets, and iron clad guarantees the US can’t walk away again. Everything else is noise. The 60% → 20% enrichment “concession” sounds big to the public, but technically it changes nothing. As long as enrichment capability exists, levels can be raised again quickly. That’s why Iran has already rejected removing highly enriched uranium—doing so would actually reduce their leverage. Europe being sidelined in all of these is well deserved and self-inflicted. Since 2018, the EU promised Iran economic relief and delivered almost nothing because it couldn’t shield companies from US sanctions. That’s why neither Tehran nor Washington takes European mediation seriously anymore. They made matters worse for themselves recently by designating the IRGC a terrorist organization. Where this really bottlenecks is Israel—but not just as an obstacle. Israel is also the main escalation trigger. As long as talks are ongoing, any unilateral Israeli strike risks being seen as blowing up diplomacy outright. That limits Israel’s freedom of action more than people admit. An attack by Israel now would prompt those Gulf states jostling for peace to respond angrily and make good their commitment to close their airspace and territories in toto. In fact, such a unilateral Israeli spoiler could tear down the Abraham Accord and cause some states to withdraw. So, whichever way this turns out, it won't favour Israel. Except if they can get the Americans to launch the attack. As for the “loudmouth,” this looks less like leadership and more like political insurance. Negotiations buy time and shift blame: If talks fail → Iran refused peace If Israel derails them → Netanyahu’s fault If war goes badly → Pentagon and generals take the hit If something works → he (Trump )takes the credit That's Classic Washington blame-management. Bottom line is, this isn’t about a historic deal or a new Middle East order. It’s about who gets blamed when things go wrong. Until we see what comes out after the weekend, every “leak” about concessions should be treated as positioning, not outright reality. |
shoodboi2:Like I said earlier. ![]() |
shoodboi2:I sometimes wonder if some of you don't have anything else to do with your spare time than spending it freely replying senseless posts. When you're dealing with folks who are wired to defend the lie and dismiss obvious reality no matter the facts presented, the best thing is just ignore them. Most times, I don't even read their posts. |
LordAdam16:He reminds me of John McCain. |
emmaodet:There is nothing funny about it. This is geopolitics where emotions takes the back seat and strategic interests towers above all. You can't be the servant of one master that's profiting from you and expect another master to take responsibilities for your security needs. Jolani should get Turkey to do his dirty jobs in the South and provide him with the weapons he needs. He can never get and shouldn't expect the same level of favours and ready-to-die commitment Russia accorded Assad, the same man he overthrown. By the time Israel and the US are done with him, he go know say Erdogan no get allies. |
Freshandfitpod: |
Freshandfitpod:The only one sleeping on the wheels now is taco and his armada of pirates. |
WriterrNg:Brutality. |
T WriterrNg:Persia says mount this lion, boys!. ![]() No time for dulling. You want some? Come get some, gringos. |
After listening to and going over Carney's Davos speech, any person that still believe and support the west and its so-called rule based order needs a mental evaluation. These guys are dangerously evil and rotten to the core. Here is an excerpt from Carney's Davos speech openly confessing that what the west called rule based order was nothing but a weapon of American hegemony used to oppress and subjugate others to their OWN benefit: “We knew that the story about the rules-based order was partially false... We knew that international law applied with varying rigour depending on the identity of the accused and the victim. This fiction was useful [because of the goods provided by American hegemony]... So we placed the sign in the window. We participated in the rituals. And we largely avoided calling out the gaps between rhetoric and reality. This bargain no longer works. Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition... You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of your subordination.” To understand this open revolt against his own clan of satanic and oppressive western elitism is knowing that ironically, Carney was a a willing accomplice. Mark Carney was Governor of the Bank of England when it froze the $5 billion worth of Venezuela’s gold that it holds It was an act of piracy worthy of Trump + part of the UK government’s wide-ranging 20-year effort to overthrow Venezuela’s government The gold remains frozen. Just try to gauge the magnitude of these heinous crimes and inhumanity---millions of souls they have wasted, nations plunged into chaos, countless societies deprived, raped, and suffocated beyond human level of tolerance --- all in a bid to stay above the rest. And the worst part is that, these process is still ongoing. I have said it before and will keep saying it; if God will not bring nuclear fire destruction on America and several cities in the western world, he will have to apologize to Sodom and Gomorrah. I'm grateful He is not like man. I spit on the west and the social psychopaths in here that clamours and worship them. ![]() |
LordAdam16:Since when do "terrorist" start acting professional? ![]() 47 and his armada of pirates are confused and running out of excusable options. Instead of Persia to bulge under the weight of such high level intimidation, it ups the ante by accelerating its readiness for a tit-for-tat whatever. This isn't in the bully's playbook. Iran right now is acting like a diseased animal daring a pack of surrounding lions. The lions are confused and don't understand what else to do. Markets have closed but the bully keep shifting goalpost. If by Sunday Trump did not give the order to attack Iran, it means one thing: he is getting scared of acting out in toto Elbridge Colby's grand strategy aimed at preventing China from achieving hegemony over Asia. To understand why Venezuela and Greenland matters to the US, look closer to what Colby's strategic playbook summise: Securing the home base is not a retreat from Asia. It is a prerequisite for sustaining power projection into the Indo-Pacific. You cannot fight a war in the Western Pacific if hostile actors control your southern approaches. Colby wrote the playbook. He is currently part of Trump's team, and he is acting ng out what he wrote --- Venezuela, Greenland (and in the foreseeable future) Iceland and Iran represent those control and chokeholds that must be taken, secured and deployed to stagnate and prevent the inevitable rise of China to a superpower status. Fanta and popcorn still on the side... Trump don enter one chance. |
FoolishBoy419:It's not every post you must reply. This is geopolitics, there is no room for entertaining children that doesn't understand what a discussion forum is all about, needless to say Geopolitics and what it means. Let the kids be kids, and adults be adults. |
WriteerNg:More arsenals being deployed to Tehran. I just dey feel.sorry for Trump. |
LordAdam16:Men... The Strait and the ME would turn to a nightmare for Trump if he takes the bait. The way this man is pivoting from one policy failure to his political doom is freakingly moronic. Imagine Hegseth just saying that the US military will now integrate Grok AI into its control networks. ![]() We haven't seen the last from this Idiocracy admiNistration. ![]() Enough with the many excuses. Give the order and let's get this deal over with amigo. |
Forget about 47 and his escalatory languages of "comply with my demands or face the consequences." Despite the huge naval buildup, it's becoming glaring that the US show of force towards Iran is just theatric brinkmanship rather than actual preparation for war. A keen student of political science only need to study Trump's history to understand what's really going on. This is Trump's electoral appeal, both in 2016 and in 2024 --- to raise America's power posture to an intimidating and fearsome level, but devoid of costly interventions and forever wars. The likes of Venezuela and Iran offers him that perfect opportunity to achieve his dreams. Strike a little there, take a pause, threatens, and depending on the outcomes, continue again. But, this is geopolitics where even the best laid plans could spiral out of control and turn out to be your suicide note. Needless to say, DT isn't the brightest of minds in geopolitics. Unlike Caracas, Tehran is ready to strike back and harder. For years, Persia has been preparing for this kind of scenario. So, even a limited strike by the US would receive a stronger response from Iran compared to what we saw during 12D. In fact, there are those wishing he gives the final order to attack --- after so much rancour over Venezuela and Greenland, I can bet my left ball that there are those within Europe and even in Trump's inner circle that would want to see him humiliated, especially with the ICE crisis ravaging back home and putting many Republicans tickets on the crosshair viz the midterms. I pray he make real his threat of deploying special forces on Iranian soil. American body bags would be the final nail on his political journey. A lot of surprises awaits this emotionally unstable man in the ME. Make I grab my popcorn and a bottle of fanta,. knowing that after the markets close today Friday, either the Orange man will chicken out or grease his ego by ordering the strike despite the odds. Either way, his reputation is toast. |
sainttwist1:My brother, na human beings dem dey count like flies sooooo. Very painful. |
dermmy:It's because they have the capability to put that armada out of use. |
WriteerNg:Persia not backing down, calling the US bluff. |
LordAdam16:That Bessent guy will go bunkers seeing this Kaja railings. It's amusing how these supposed allies are getting at each other's throats diplomatically. Trump should follow up with a hit-back twit anytime from now. Clowns. |
LordAdam16:There’s a brutal internal logic one can seduce from what you’re saying — and that’s exactly why this moment is so eerily dangerous. Once senior figures openly float assassination, decapitation strikes, regime change, and balkanization, the issue stops being “policy disagreement” and becomes existential. At that point, states don’t think in terms of proportionality or market stability; they think in terms of survival and sanctity. History is very clear on that. From Tehran’s perspective, that kind of rhetoric vaporizes the old arguments against escalation. If the endgame being advertised is the destruction of Persia as a civilizational entity, then deterrence moves from restraint to shock. The Hormuz card stops being “reckless” and starts being the last non-nuclear lever available. And you’re right about the hypocrisy downstream: --- China enjoys discounted oil and strategic patience — until supply is no longer guaranteed. -- Russia can posture, but capacity limits are capacity limits. -- Europe talked loudly about regime change, then suddenly remembered it has economies, not bunkers. That said, there’s a thin line between projecting ungovernable resolve and triggering a coalition that even existential logic can’t manage. The most effective deterrence historically hasn’t been chaos for its own sake — it’s been controlled unpredictability, enough to make planners lose sleep without forcing everyone else into a corner where they think escalation is their only option too. This is why China's continuous pacifism scares me. What's going on in Panda’s mind? Will he sees this occasion as an escalation too far to tolerate and unleash the dragon as a last option? We are on the brink of WW3. You’re absolutely right on one thing though: this is no longer a “manageable crisis.” Once existential language enters the arena, normal rules stop applying. States that pretend otherwise are usually the ones most shocked by what comes next. The tragedy is that everyone involved seems to understand this — and is still gambling that the other side will blink first. |
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