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Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 9:52pm On Feb 04
LordAdam16:
officially official

russia announces that the nuclear treaty between the us and russia has expired

new arms race is in effect
let the games begin

-Lord
Enter the Burevestnik. cool
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 8:03pm On Feb 04
LordAdam16:
okay now what is this bullsh*t

the us included in its list of conditions
that iran would be barred from launching satellites

satellites that even nigeria can launch


They were never prepared for peace. The talk was just to buy time to get their much needed assets in position across the region. Now that the last ship has arrived, let the fireworks begin.

No chicken out this time.

The Houthis have already moved into striking positions.

Meanwhile, Chinese soy ship is lurking within range of the carrier.

Persia is ready for whatever.

iran should launch pre-emptive strikes

enough is enough

-
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 8:01pm On Feb 04
LordAdam16:
okay now what is this bullsh*t

the us included in its list of conditions
that iran would be barred from launching satellites

satellites that even nigeria can launch




They were never prepared for peace. The talk was just to buy time to get their much needed assets in position across the region. Now that the last ship has arrived, let the fireworks begin.

No chicken out this time.

The Houthis have already moved into striking positions.

Meanwhile, Chinese soy ship is lurking within range of the carrier.

Persia is ready for whatever.

iran should launch pre-emptive strikes

enough is enough

-Lord
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 5:54pm On Feb 04
So the US uses the F35 air-to-air missile costing $2.2 million dollars to take down a $20k unarmed surveillance drone just to show force.

The way the MIC rips the American taxpayers of their money is beyond pathetic.
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 5:31pm On Feb 04
LordAdam16:
officially official

an arab media source is reporting that saudi arabia has informed iran that it will remain neutral during the war if iran attacks any us base in the gulf including in saudi arabia as long as no saudi is killed

iran must now seriously consider pre-emptive strikes

i have zero confidence in these negotiations

-Lord
It means war is imminent.
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 5:26pm On Feb 04
WriterrNg:
⚡France, once among Europe's most prosperous nations, is now said to have slipped into "third-world status" after new figures revealed it has firmly slid into the EU's "second tier".

For the third consecutive year, the country's wealth per capita sits below the EU average and has now fallen beneath that of Cyprus, according to Eurostat data.
In March 2008, former French President Jacques Chirac said, "Without Africa, France will slide down into the rank of a third nation."

In 2019, and also recently, Georgia Meloni of Italy openly stated that without the exploitation of African nations by France, especially via the CFA, France would amount to nothing short of a third-world nation.

Well, as it's turning out to be, these predictions have proved to be accurate; thanks to Niger, Burkinafaso, and Mali kicking them out. With others like Senegal and co gradually towing similar lines, French citizens will start looking for greener pastures soon like Africans.

What goes around comes around. grin
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 9:50am On Feb 04
LordAdam16:
one must always display premium madness
when dealing with the hegemony

-Lord
Now, Iran has the excuse to also shoot down their drones over the Strait and damn the consequences.
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 9:43am On Feb 04
WriterrNg:


Oga.

Aircraft carrier wey useless. Aircraft carrier wey still need those "cheap improvised" ships to defend itself?

Aircraft carrier na just glorified air base wey dem use asphalt pour on top so dem fit pack jets..

E no dey serve any purpose other than to launch aircrafts and house troops. Very slow moving and easy target crap.
grin you no lie, the post dey harsh but e talk plenty truth.

Aircraft carrier really na glorified air base for water. Just pour asphalt on steel, pack jets, and pray say nothing go reach am. The whole hype dey come from how expensive e be, not because e be invincible.


And the fact say e need plenty “cheap improvised” ships to survive already tell you everything. If the thing strong by itself, why e need escort of destroyers, frigates, submarines, supply ships, plus aircraft on top again? One carrier no fit move alone without forming convoy like Nigerian state governors.

For modern war, carrier slow, big, and broadcast itself like lighthouse. With today’s:

--hypersonic missiles
--long-range anti-ship ballistic missiles
--cheap drones and swarm tactics
--satellites tracking every movement


that big flat deck just dey shout “aim here.” China and Iran don already build their entire doctrine around killing carriers, not fighting them head-on. When the Russian MoD said na just one Zircon seabased hypersonic missile dem go use take decommission the British new Carrier 'HMS Queen Elizabeth', dem no dey joke.

And yes, the only real job of a carrier na to launch aircraft and house troops. If you already get land bases nearby, the carrier suddenly lose value fast. That’s why near peer conflicts no dey rely on them the way Cold War movies show.

The carrier matter pass only when:
--enemy weak
--air defenses poor
--missiles limited
--or you dey bully smaller states


Against a serious opponent? E turn to political symbol and liability. Lose one and the psychological, financial, and political damage go pass the military benefit.

So yeah, aircraft carrier no be useless for everything — but for modern high-end war, e dey look more like an expensive relic trying to survive in a missile age.

Big, slow, flashy… and constantly hiding behind escorts.

Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 9:14am On Feb 04
WriterrNg:
Russia get more ships and specialized vessels but dem go wan dey use tonnage confuse gullible ones.

Wetin concern weight of ships to size of Navy?

That na the only metric US dey use rank their Navy as number 1.

Russia and China get more ships, larger fleets than US but trust Google to put their own country (America) as number one.

Russia dey build more ships and submarines but dem go wan whine person with "tonnage"
I know it's always hard for our mendacious brothers on the other side to admit the fact that the supposed almighty US is seeking external help from allies to support its ailing shipbuilding needs. But, this is the reality. There is nothing wrong with asking for help from your allies, but it's factual the US no longer compete in modern shipbuilding. The reasons are obvious. Again, you just can't compare US and Russian sea power based on sheer size and numbers of vessels possessed --- each country's strategic interest and geopolitical posturing plays the key role in determining what vessel type, tonnage, and quantity to build.

Here is a report on how the US and Russian ship building industry fairs currently.


As of early 2026, the US and Russian shipbuilding industries are facing sharply contrasting situations: the US is struggling with capacity bottlenecks, high costs, and urgent modernization needs, while Russia, despite sanctions, has significantly increased its shipbuilding pace, particularly in the Arctic and for its navy, even while grappling with severe industrial efficiency issues
.
US Shipbuilding Industry (2025–2026)

The US shipbuilding sector is experiencing what analysts call a "real crisis" or the "worst in 25 years," characterized by a severe lack of capacity and significant delays.
Capacity & Delays: Roughly 37 of 45 battle-force ships under construction as of December 2025 faced delays, with major programs like the Constellation-class frigate years behind schedule.


Production Bottlenecks: The US has largely lost its commercial shipbuilding sector, and its remaining yards are specialized, high-cost, and unable to produce ships at the speed needed to counter competitors.

Strategic Shift: To combat this, the US is looking to partner with South Korea and Japan to build or repair US ships, and in late 2025/early 2026, initiated plans to build icebreakers in Finland.


Future Outlook: The 2025 plan aims to grow the fleet to 390 ships by 2054, but faces a near-term dip to 283 ships by 2027.


Russian Shipbuilding Industry (2025–2026)
Russia has accelerated its shipbuilding pace, outpacing the United States in speed over the last five years and focusing on both military strength and Arctic capabilities.

Record Production: In 2025, Russian shipyards delivered 129 to 132 civilian vessels, a 10-year high, while maintaining a steady pace of military production, including submarines and surface combatants.

Massive Investment: The government has launched a $6 billion-plus plan to build over 1,600 vessels by 2036, aimed at bolstering its merchant fleet and securing the Northern Sea Route.

Sanctions & Challenges: Despite successes, the industry is struggling with the impact of Western sanctions, which have caused a shortage of critical components and technological, economic, and logistical bottlenecks.

Workforce & Efficiency: The industry suffers from "chronic financial weakness" and low efficiency, leading to planned, massive layoffs (up to 70% in some key yards) as part of a restructuring to improve productivity.

Key Comparisons
Arctic Dominance: Russia holds a massive advantage in the Arctic, with 57 icebreakers compared to a very small US fleet.
Strategic Focus: The US is attempting to pivot toward "distributed maritime operations" with smaller, autonomous ships to counter China, while Russia is expanding its capacity for both large-tonnage naval vessels and industrial, specialized ships.


International Partnerships: The US is turning to foreign allies (South Korea, Japan, Finland) to build capacity, while Russia is increasingly looking for alternative supply routes to bypass sanctions.

Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 6:46pm On Feb 03
Dvdpity:
I still don't understand why Russia hasn't hit Ukrainian nuclear plant substations. Force them to shut down permanently.
That would be extreme. Radioactive fallout will kill or maim thousands of innocent people.
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 6:35pm On Feb 03
WriteerNg:
⚡Ukraine and its western allies have agreed on a three-step enforcement plan for any future ceasefire with Russia.

If Russia violates a truce, the response would escalate from diplomatic warnings (within 24 hours) to European military intervention, and finally to a US-backed military response within 72 hours if attacks continue.

The plan was discussed by Ukrainian, European, and US officials in recent meetings and is meant to prevent a repeat of past failed ceasefires like the Minsk agreements, which collapsed due to lack of enforcement.
Ah yes. The sacred Three-Step Plan™. Because nothing has ever scared a nuclear-armed state like a well-formatted escalation flowchart.

Let’s break down why this is comedy, not strategy. grin


Step 1: Diplomatic warnings within 24 hours

Fantastic. Russia violates the ceasefire, and the response is… a strongly worded statement. Maybe two. Possibly with the word “deeply concerned.” Moscow has been living off Western warnings since 2014. At this point they probably document them. cool



Step 2: European military intervention.

This is where the plan really shines. Europe—still debating tank deliveries, ammo production, and who pays for what—is supposed to agree, mobilize, and intervene militarily against Russia in record time? Sure. The same Europe that needs three summits and a translator to agree on lunch.
Also, intervene how? Air defense? Troops? Naval assets? “Military intervention” is doing a lot of heavy lifting here.


Step 3: US-backed military response within 72 hours.
This is the best joke of all. The United States does not go to war with Russia because a pre-agreed timer expired. Washington doesn’t even go to war with Iraq on a schedule—let alone a nuclear peer. The idea that the White House will say, “Well folks, the spreadsheet says we’re at Step 3,” is pure fantasy.


And the core problem they keep dodging: who decides Russia violated the ceasefire?
Was it a drone? Artillery? A proxy unit? A “miscommunication”? Russia will drown every incident in ambiguity. By the time NATO finishes arguing over attribution, the ceasefire violation will be three news cycles old.


Clowns. Minsk didn’t fail because it lacked an escalation ladder. It failed because ceasefires don’t work when one side thinks continuing the war is still beneficial. No amount of laminated enforcement plans changes that.
So what is this really about?


Reassuring Western audiences. Signaling resolve. Giving officials something to point at and say, “This time we mean it.”
Moscow isn’t intimidated by press conferences, timelines, or PowerPoint arrows. It’s intimidated by battlefield realities and unavoidable costs—neither of which are created by a 72-hour countdown clock.


This is pure comedy, not deterrence. It’s role-playing toughness. And Russia has already skipped the tutorial and moved on to the main game.

Clowns.
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m):
LordAdam16:
statement from president pezeshkian authorizing iran's participation in negotiations






erdogan is going to riyadh and cairo this week
the arabs and turks believe this is a new, unique, unprecedented opportunity to create the foundations of a new regional security architecture that excludes the israelis and unites the shia-shiite blocs

as always the qataris want to throw cash at iran to get them to be amenable to qatari interests
the turks see this as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity

iran however only cares about a narrow nuclear deal where the us removes all sanctions, release frozen assets, and there are firm guarantees against a 2019 unilateral withdrawal repeat

the biggest losers so far are the israelis and europeans
the israelis for obvious reasons
the europeans because no one values their input
not the us, not the arabs, not the turks, and certainly not the iranians
the 🤡 show of kaja, merz, macron have destroyed european credibility on the iran file




the israelis and beltway hawks are still very optimistic about a war
from their perspective, negotiations serve two functions:
1. the loudmouth gets to acquire political legitimacy for war. everyone even the grandma at home will be aware that they tried everything to avoid war. war would seem like the option of last resort because the evil iranians refused to make a deal.
2. talks close off the possibility of an iranian pre-emptive strike while they are reinforcing their positions. consequently, they can derail talks and start the war whenever they're ready without any risk.




on the question of what concessions the persians are willing to make

the only public concession floated is from admiral shamkhani, former secretary of the nsc, former chief of the irgc navy, and one of the few survivors from the negotiating team that was targeted in the 12d war

the admiral said the enrichment level of the 60% uranium can be reduced to 20%

removal of highly enriched uranium which had been seen as a viable concessions has been publicly shot down




as i repeated yesterday
the bottleneck remains israel
i don't think the loudmouth has it in him to sign a deal that the israelis severely oppose

i think he has agreed to negotiations as a way to cover his a$$ when this sh*t blows up
because then whatever happens, someone else will be the scapegoat
if the israelis try to derail and f*ck it up, it is netanyahu's fault
if a war starts and they predictably get f*cked up, it is the fault of hegseth and the pentagon generals who were given all the time in the world and all the assets available of a trillion dollar military and couldn't make it count
but if sh*t works, he gets credit




all reports about demands and concessions should be taken with a grain of salt until the weekend/early next week

witkoff meets the israelis today and the iranians will be coordinating with their allies

-Lord
Your write-ups always excite the best of geopolitical minds. But, allow me to add to this with some facts.


Firstly, Erdogan going to Riyadh and Cairo in the same week is not random. Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt don’t suddenly trust each other—but they all share one interest right now: avoiding a regional war that wrecks trade, energy routes, and cause internal stability. That’s the real driver. Talk of a brand-new “security architecture” sounds promising, but in reality this is about coordination and damage control, not a NATO-style alliance. They have seen the resolve from the Iranian side on this occasion – if we burn, the entire region will burn. They understood Iran’s readiness for total war and they're not prepared for the repercussions.


Secondly, I think the idea of a united Shia–Sunni bloc is also overstated. These aforementioned Gulf states are not aligning with Iran ideologically. They’re just hedging. After the 2019 Abqaiq, followed by Gaza, and Red Sea disruptions, they’ve learned that escalation hurts them first and the most affected. Qatar throwing money at Iran fits its usual playbook—cash to buy influence and keep fires away from its backyard.
On Iran, you’re very correct. Tehran’s demands haven’t changed since Trump jump ship in 2018: full sanctions relief, release of frozen assets, and iron clad guarantees the US can’t walk away again.


Everything else is noise. The 60% → 20% enrichment “concession” sounds big to the public, but technically it changes nothing. As long as enrichment capability exists, levels can be raised again quickly. That’s why Iran has already rejected removing highly enriched uranium—doing so would actually reduce their leverage.



Europe being sidelined in all of these is well deserved and self-inflicted. Since 2018, the EU promised Iran economic relief and delivered almost nothing because it couldn’t shield companies from US sanctions. That’s why neither Tehran nor Washington takes European mediation seriously anymore. They made matters worse for themselves recently by designating the IRGC a terrorist organization.


Where this really bottlenecks is Israel—but not just as an obstacle. Israel is also the main escalation trigger. As long as talks are ongoing, any unilateral Israeli strike risks being seen as blowing up diplomacy outright. That limits Israel’s freedom of action more than people admit. An attack by Israel now would prompt those Gulf states jostling for peace to respond angrily and make good their commitment to close their airspace and territories in toto. In fact, such a unilateral Israeli spoiler could tear down the Abraham Accord and cause some states to withdraw. So, whichever way this turns out, it won't favour Israel. Except if they can get the Americans to launch the attack.


As for the “loudmouth,” this looks less like leadership and more like political insurance. Negotiations buy time and shift blame:
If talks fail → Iran refused peace
If Israel derails them → Netanyahu’s fault
If war goes badly → Pentagon and generals take the hit
If something works → he (Trump )takes the credit
That's Classic Washington blame-management.


Bottom line is, this isn’t about a historic deal or a new Middle East order. It’s about who gets blamed when things go wrong. Until we see what comes out after the weekend, every “leak” about concessions should be treated as positioning, not outright reality.
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 4:38pm On Feb 03
shoodboi2:
As usual, he has nothing to say. grin grin grin
Like I said earlier. grin
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 4:37pm On Feb 03
shoodboi2:
Why are you afraid to mention what Putin did? Of course, you cannot say Putin did anything. The mentions of Putin, which you are struggling hard to make a big deal out of, were of Epstein talking to others about the many times he unsuccessfully tried setting up meetings with Putin.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/jeffrey-epstein-files-vladimir-putin-russia-b2911750.html

Instead of you hanging onto straws, why don't you talk about more factual news related to the file, including Epstein's close relationship with Israel and Mossad, and that photo of Prince Andrew leaning over a girl child and the other one child slept on the bed.
I sometimes wonder if some of you don't have anything else to do with your spare time than spending it freely replying senseless posts.

When you're dealing with folks who are wired to defend the lie and dismiss obvious reality no matter the facts presented, the best thing is just ignore them.

Most times, I don't even read their posts.
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 4:18pm On Feb 03
LordAdam16:
the day this guy go die

devil go start dey complain

why una dey send dis werey come my end?

-Lord
He reminds me of John McCain.
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 10:12pm On Feb 02
emmaodet:
So Jolani came to russia with request and they won't sell him weapons, won't borrow him money nor will they have a military base in souther syria BECAUSE the Isrealis won't accept it.
Why do i find the last answer funny?
I don't even know who Iran should rely on between China and Russia honestly.
There is nothing funny about it.

This is geopolitics where emotions takes the back seat and strategic interests towers above all.

You can't be the servant of one master that's profiting from you and expect another master to take responsibilities for your security needs.

Jolani should get Turkey to do his dirty jobs in the South and provide him with the weapons he needs.

He can never get and shouldn't expect the same level of favours and ready-to-die commitment Russia accorded Assad, the same man he overthrown.

By the time Israel and the US are done with him, he go know say Erdogan no get allies.
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 10:43pm On Feb 01
Freshandfitpod:
you have high hope for iran?? You are sleeping on the wheels my guy
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 10:40pm On Feb 01
Freshandfitpod:
you have high hope for iran?? You are sleeping on the wheels my guy
The only one sleeping on the wheels now is taco and his armada of pirates.
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 10:25pm On Feb 01
WriterrNg:


Your end is closer than his.

And we will all celebrate, including your family.

Better start preparing your grave bcuz you're more likely to be killed by bandits this year than Putin dying in the next 20 years.
Brutality.
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 10:17pm On Feb 01
T
WriterrNg:
⚡Iran designates all European Union militaries as terrorist groups.
Persia says mount this lion, boys!. grin grin

No time for dulling. grinYou want some? Come get some, gringos.
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 10:19am On Feb 01
After listening to and going over Carney's Davos speech, any person that still believe and support the west and its so-called rule based order needs a mental evaluation. These guys are dangerously evil and rotten to the core.

Here is an excerpt from Carney's Davos speech openly confessing that what the west called rule based order was nothing but a weapon of American hegemony used to oppress and subjugate others to their OWN benefit:

“We knew that the story about the rules-based order was partially false... We knew that international law applied with varying rigour depending on the identity of the accused and the victim. This fiction was useful [because of the goods provided by American hegemony]... So we placed the sign in the window. We participated in the rituals. And we largely avoided calling out the gaps between rhetoric and reality. This bargain no longer works. Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition... You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of your subordination.”


To understand this open revolt against his own clan of satanic and oppressive western elitism is knowing that ironically, Carney was a a willing accomplice.

Mark Carney was Governor of the Bank of England when it froze the $5 billion worth of Venezuela’s gold that it holds

It was an act of piracy worthy of Trump + part of the UK government’s wide-ranging 20-year effort to overthrow Venezuela’s government

The gold remains frozen.


Just try to gauge the magnitude of these heinous crimes and inhumanity---millions of souls they have wasted, nations plunged into chaos, countless societies deprived, raped, and suffocated beyond human level of tolerance --- all in a bid to stay above the rest. And the worst part is that, these process is still ongoing.

I have said it before and will keep saying it; if God will not bring nuclear fire destruction on America and several cities in the western world, he will have to apologize to Sodom and Gomorrah. I'm grateful He is not like man.

I spit on the west and the social psychopaths in here that clamours and worship them. undecided
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 11:26am On Jan 31
LordAdam16:
full statement by centcom on the persian naval exercise that begins tomorrow



na the irgc wen una don designate as terrorists una dey beg to stay "professional" and "avoid unnecessary risk"

see people wen dem talk say go begin naval blockade on friday
today na saturday na iran dem dey beg mk e no institute naval blockade
na persia these pale macaques b one intimidate

start this war tonight

time for cho cho cho don pass

-Lord
Since when do "terrorist" start acting professional? grin

47 and his armada of pirates are confused and running out of excusable options.

Instead of Persia to bulge under the weight of such high level intimidation, it ups the ante by accelerating its readiness for a tit-for-tat whatever.

This isn't in the bully's playbook. Iran right now is acting like a diseased animal daring a pack of surrounding lions. The lions are confused and don't understand what else to do.

Markets have closed but the bully keep shifting goalpost.

If by Sunday Trump did not give the order to attack Iran, it means one thing: he is getting scared of acting out in toto Elbridge Colby's grand strategy aimed at preventing China from achieving hegemony over Asia.

To understand why Venezuela and Greenland matters to the US, look closer to what Colby's strategic playbook summise:

Securing the home base is not a retreat from Asia. It is a prerequisite for sustaining power projection into the Indo-Pacific. You cannot fight a war in the Western Pacific if hostile actors control your southern approaches.

Colby wrote the playbook. He is currently part of Trump's team, and he is acting ng out what he wrote --- Venezuela, Greenland (and in the foreseeable future) Iceland and Iran represent those control and chokeholds that must be taken, secured and deployed to stagnate and prevent the inevitable rise of China to a superpower status.

Fanta and popcorn still on the side...

Trump don enter one chance.
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 10:35am On Jan 31
FoolishBoy419:
What you're mocking can be found on every platform, including the ones that are up to your larger-than-life standards. Go to Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, CNN, Fox News, Pierce Morgan's page, Tucker Carlson's page, etc you'll still be met with people dropping predictions and analysis based on available information and history. And yes, a certain degree of bias factors into every analysis you can possibly come across.

That said, nobody is preventing you from dropping your own. If you can't do that, don't try to crap on those who have the courage to do so.
It's not every post you must reply.

This is geopolitics, there is no room for entertaining children that doesn't understand what a discussion forum is all about, needless to say Geopolitics and what it means.

Let the kids be kids, and adults be adults.
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 9:08pm On Jan 30
WriteerNg:
⚡3 Russian Antonov An-124 heavy transport aircraft, as well as an Ilyushin cargo plane have reportedly landed in Iran in the last 24 hours.
More arsenals being deployed to Tehran. I just dey feel.sorry for Trump.
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 9:04pm On Jan 30
LordAdam16:
the trap has been laid perfectly

we are snickering and patiently waiting for the boisterous antelope to enter

-Lord
Men... The Strait and the ME would turn to a nightmare for Trump if he takes the bait.

The way this man is pivoting from one policy failure to his political doom is freakingly moronic.

Imagine Hegseth just saying that the US military will now integrate Grok AI into its control networks. grin

We haven't seen the last from this Idiocracy admiNistration. grin

Enough with the many excuses. Give the order and let's get this deal over with amigo.
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 6:51pm On Jan 30
Forget about 47 and his escalatory languages of "comply with my demands or face the consequences." Despite the huge naval buildup, it's becoming glaring that the US show of force towards Iran is just theatric brinkmanship rather than actual preparation for war.

A keen student of political science only need to study Trump's history to understand what's really going on. This is Trump's electoral appeal, both in 2016 and in 2024 --- to raise America's power posture to an intimidating and fearsome level, but devoid of costly interventions and forever wars. The likes of Venezuela and Iran offers him that perfect opportunity to achieve his dreams. Strike a little there, take a pause, threatens, and depending on the outcomes, continue again.

But, this is geopolitics where even the best laid plans could spiral out of control and turn out to be your suicide note. Needless to say, DT isn't the brightest of minds in geopolitics.

Unlike Caracas, Tehran is ready to strike back and harder. For years, Persia has been preparing for this kind of scenario. So, even a limited strike by the US would receive a stronger response from Iran compared to what we saw during 12D.

In fact, there are those wishing he gives the final order to attack --- after so much rancour over Venezuela and Greenland, I can bet my left ball that there are those within Europe and even in Trump's inner circle that would want to see him humiliated, especially with the ICE crisis ravaging back home and putting many Republicans tickets on the crosshair viz the midterms.

I pray he make real his threat of deploying special forces on Iranian soil. American body bags would be the final nail on his political journey. A lot of surprises awaits this emotionally unstable man in the ME.

Make I grab my popcorn and a bottle of fanta,. knowing that after the markets close today Friday, either the Orange man will chicken out or grease his ego by ordering the strike despite the odds. Either way, his reputation is toast.
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 5:50pm On Jan 30
sainttwist1:
omo people don go oooo........
My brother, na human beings dem dey count like flies sooooo.

Very painful.
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 3:11pm On Jan 30
dermmy:
These guys are just brave. They won't even budge or cower given the armada near them. I fear them.
It's because they have the capability to put that armada out of use.
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 2:51pm On Jan 30
WriteerNg:
⚡Ali Shamkhani, senior advisor to Khamenei:

“Limited strike” is an illusion. Any military action by the United States, from any origin and at any level, will be considered the start of war, and its response will be immediate, comprehensive, and unprecedented, targeting the heart of Tel Aviv and all those who support the aggressor.
Persia not backing down, calling the US bluff.
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 9:23pm On Jan 28
LordAdam16:



the fine folks at state department are definitely not getting much sleep recently

kaja don drop diplomatic oreshnik this early momo

-Lord
That Bessent guy will go bunkers seeing this Kaja railings.

It's amusing how these supposed allies are getting at each other's throats diplomatically.

Trump should follow up with a hit-back twit anytime from now.

Clowns.
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 11:34am On Jan 28
LordAdam16:
the hormuz card is being seriously considered now
because these 🤡🤡 with their loose lips openly talked about assassinating khamenei and conducting a brutal 12d war type of decapitation strikes with the end game of regime change, activation of a multi-ethnic insurgency that engulfs all of iran from its west to its east; and potential balkanization of iran

that is an existential threat to not just the government but the sanctity of persia
that eliminates every argument against closing the strait of hormuz

china will have to get its oil from heaven
since they've sat pretty on the sidelines since forever
if russia cannot increase output, tough luck for them
when the war ends, trade will resume

the rail will have to serve
when the desired is not available, the available becomes desired

as for the eu
f*ck europe
merz and macron were cosplaying as regime change agents two weeks ago
they've gone quiet now post greenland
but let them eat cake




this is no more a manageable crisis
this is existential for persia

and they must treat it as such
in the absence of nukes
all options must be on the table

normally these are threats that after they're made
iran would conduct a nuclear test like russia does
and the 🤡🤡 will go quiet and complain about iran's recklessness

in fact, they should start issuing hour long notices to civilian shipping in the gulf and conducting anti-ship missile tests
that'll send a message and up the price by $2-5
persia must display unrefined madness
because they're not dealing with normal people

-Lord
There’s a brutal internal logic one can seduce from what you’re saying — and that’s exactly why this moment is so eerily dangerous.


Once senior figures openly float assassination, decapitation strikes, regime change, and balkanization, the issue stops being “policy disagreement” and becomes existential. At that point, states don’t think in terms of proportionality or market stability; they think in terms of survival and sanctity. History is very clear on that.

From Tehran’s perspective, that kind of rhetoric vaporizes the old arguments against escalation. If the endgame being advertised is the destruction of Persia as a civilizational entity, then deterrence moves from restraint to shock. The Hormuz card stops being “reckless” and starts being the last non-nuclear lever available.

And you’re right about the hypocrisy downstream:

--- China enjoys discounted oil and strategic patience — until supply is no longer guaranteed.

-- Russia can posture, but capacity limits are capacity limits.

-- Europe talked loudly about regime change, then suddenly remembered it has economies, not bunkers.


That said, there’s a thin line between projecting ungovernable resolve and triggering a coalition that even existential logic can’t manage. The most effective deterrence historically hasn’t been chaos for its own sake — it’s been controlled unpredictability, enough to make planners lose sleep without forcing everyone else into a corner where they think escalation is their only option too. This is why China's continuous pacifism scares me. What's going on in Panda’s mind? Will he sees this occasion as an escalation too far to tolerate and unleash the dragon as a last option? We are on the brink of WW3.


You’re absolutely right on one thing though: this is no longer a “manageable crisis.” Once existential language enters the arena, normal rules stop applying. States that pretend otherwise are usually the ones most shocked by what comes next.


The tragedy is that everyone involved seems to understand this — and is still gambling that the other side will blink first.

Foreign AffairsRe: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Appleyard(m): 10:42am On Jan 28
WriteerNg:


Guess who sells the Uranium to India?
Mother Russia. grin

Including all the energy. cool

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