Appleyard's Posts
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LordAdam16:Oh, boy!!! This is exactly how quiet deterrence looks — lots of laughter on the surface, very serious math underneath. MbS saying “not our airspace, not our territory” isn’t theater; it’s Riyadh protecting itself from becoming a first-wave target. Same with the UAE. Once Gulf states start publicly fencing off their skies, the message to Washington is blunt: don’t assume regional basing is automatic anymore. And you’re right — once Saudi and UAE step back, the rest fall like dominoes: -- Qatar can’t risk Al Udeid becoming ground zero -- Kuwait still remembers 1990 a little too well -- Oman has built its entire foreign policy on being the fire extinguisher That leaves Bahrain and Jordan, both structurally dependent and militarily exposed — which is exactly why they’re being watched so closely. Silence itself becomes a signal. Your point about Iran’s restraint is key. Tehran isn’t rushing into pre-emptive strikes because the board is still rearranging in its favor. Every public refusal narrows US options, clarifies coordinates, and reduces ambiguity — and ambiguity is what planners hate most. Why strike early when: --- opponents are isolating themselves for you, and --- potential launch corridors are shrinking by the day? This is classic Persian statecraft: patience, positioning, and letting others declare first. Honey works better than vinegar when time itself is doing the work. People mistake calm for weakness in geopolitics. In this case, it looks more like confidence that the geometry of the war is changing, and not in Washington’s favor. Notwithstanding, here is a big BUT... What if Washington calls their bluff and launch attacks from their territories anyway? Till then, fingers crossed. |
LordAdam16:The drones are mapping coordinates to be fed to hypersonics and anti ship missiles. |
LordAdam16: ![]() |
LordAdam16:Dude is just beating ghosts in the air. He doesn't want to accept that the days of US primacy are over. East is where contemporary economic changes are happening. And the rest of the globe are pivoting there. Let him keep wallowing in his make belief world. |
LordAdam16:There’s a lot of truth in this, especially the divergence in war aims, but a few realities are worth layering on top. You’re right that Hormuz is Iran’s nuclear option short of nukes. Tehran doesn’t need to “close” it Hollywood-style; partial disruption, insurance spikes, and sporadic hits are enough to send prices screaming past $150–$200. That pain wouldn’t just hit the Gulf monarchies — it would hit Europe first, then Asia. And yes, at that point the loudmouths suddenly rediscover diplomacy. However, we must not forget that Hormuz is a mutual-assured-pain card, not a free move. Iran would take serious heat too — economically and militarily — the longer it stayed disrupted. Tehran knows this, which is why it’s a deterrent threat, not a button you press lightly. On China, the rail link through Central Asia helps with strategic goods, not oil volumes. It’s great for sanctions evasion, weapons components, drones, spare parts — but it doesn’t replace tankers. China still needs the sea lanes calm enough to function. So Beijing’s interest is escalation control, not apocalyptic closure. Where you’re dead-on is the war psychology gap. ---The US thinks in “rounds”: degrade, pause, signal, reset, elections, move on. ---Iran thinks in “settlement”: once this crosses a threshold, end it decisively or die trying. That’s why Washington talks about precision strikes, decapitation, and messaging. And Tehran talks about jihad, martyrdom, and regional ignition. Those aren’t just words — they reflect fundamentally different assumptions about what war is for both parties. The real danger isn’t that Iran can’t hurt the US. It’s that the US may miscalculate how much pain Iran is willing to absorb to impose a new regional reality. Empires hate total wars. Civilizational states sometimes embrace them. Moreover, China is the big elephant in the room whose potential reaction the US might also be miscalculating right now. That gap — more than Hormuz, railways, or oil prices — is where things go sideways. |
LordAdam16:The deal just dey make me laugh. It's a win-win for all involved. |
WriterrNg:The Russians wins again. What's good for India - EU trade is good for the Russians. If you know, you know. ![]() |
WriterrNg:Another great deal for the Russians. DT must keep bringing in the excuses while putting more nails on the coffin of the Republicans chances in the incoming Midterms. |
OkpaNsukkaisBae:That thought actually cuts closer to reality than most people are willing to admit. Yes, Ukraine functions as a strategic holding action for Europe — buying time while EU states rearm, rebuild depleted stockpiles, and try to regain military relevance they outsourced to the US for decades. But the assumption behind it is deeply flawed. No, Russia is not going to fight Europe in a neat, conventional tank-on-tank NATO fantasy war. If Russia ever faces an existential conflict with the EU/NATO, the playbook changes immediately: * Asymmetric escalation before conventional war: Cyberattacks, energy infrastructure sabotage, undersea cables, satellites, space assets — Europe is far more vulnerable here than it likes to admit. * Long-range precision strikes: Russia would lean heavily on missiles, drones, and airpower to cripple logistics, ports, and command nodes long before massed ground combat. Recently, the Europeans have admitted that there is no escaping the Oreshnik, and that's just one part of the large array of Russia's standoff capabilities. * Nuclear caveat — established Russia’s doctrine explicitly allows use of tactical nukes if state’s survival is threatened. Europe pretends this clause doesn’t exist because acknowledging it collapses the whole “we’ll eventually fight Russia” narrative. * Political warfare inside Europe: The cracks are readily visible. Fragmented publics, weak governments, economic strain, migration pressure — Europe would be fighting itself as much as Russia. The irony is that Ukraine is being used to delay a confrontation that Europe is structurally unprepared to fight, while Russia is adapting its military, economy, and society for long-term confrontation right now. So the real question isn’t whether Europe/NATO thinks Russia will fight conventionally. It’s whether Europe has convinced itself that Russia will play by rules Europe itself abandoned long ago. History suggests that’s a dangerous illusion. |
LordAdam16:The man is just falling in all indices. |
WriterrNg:See this one that's living at the mercy of the Russian top brass. If not that the Kremlin is waging a "clean war," this clown would have been dead long ago. Here he is talking about regime chang in a neighbouring country, when he should be grateful that his own life was spared by his enemy. Clown. |
WriterrNg:The midterm will turn out to be a disaster for the Trump based Republicans. |
LordAdam16:See the yankee that just said China is no longer the main threat to the US. They couldn't even wait 24 hours before betraying their real intent. Clowns. |
WriterrNg:They actually believe in their own lies that their rivals will buy such mendacious policy statements. If we can see through the smokescreen, China and Russia sees way beyond it. When you surround yourself with apostles of mendacity, you're liable to believe your own folly. Trump and his belligerence cabinet are the worst mendacious figures ever to grace the White House. Policy makers in Russia and China go just they shake their heads they laugh. Very childish. |
LordAdam16:I sometimes wonder whether US policy makers thinks the rest of the world, especially their rivals, are fools. China is no longer the major threat but your seabased armada of offensive capabilities are pronging towards Iran in a bid to cut off the Chinese oil reach, same way you're creating rancour with Greenland---the target being the newly established Russia-China alternative artic maritime route that effectively bypassed all western dominated and influenced waterways. Well, I like how they have exposed their own folly to the rest of the world, especially to their own allies, betraying their words with clear push on the ground. No one is fooled by this antics. |
WriterrNg:Smokescreen. |
Kingsnairaland:That guy is a clown. |
Freshandfitpod:The same Grok just said Russia is not on the verge of collapse. Are you not sure that the Grok you remodeled is your own brain that is now "glocking" like a malfunctioning Austrian Glock? ![]()
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SonOfWords:Popcorn on one hand, with fanta by the sides, scrolling through the news seeing NATO vs NATO criminal gangs dragging each other in the ground over a piece of ice. Indeed, we're entertained. ![]() |
WriterrNg:Dreamer. The US that entered the war late on. The Soviets have already done the bulk of the work. |
[quote author=WriterrNg post=138214301]⚡Trump on the Iron Dome: I told Bibi – stop taking credit for the Dome, that’s our technology. We did it for Israel. You demon of "caution," I bind you!. Trump must use force on Greenland. |
WriterrNg:It's time to go on the offensive and proactive scale. Netanyahoo will know now that he is not the only man capable of madness in the region. Persia cashing out for the kurds the checks they they wrote, signed and demanded during the riots. The blood of innocent Iranians killed during the riots by Usreal must be avenged in all ramifications. This is stage one. Stage two is coming. That preemptive strike Israeli cabinets fear so much is now staring them on the face. |
WriterrNg:This one is parroting stale propaganda. |
[quote author=WriterrNg post=138210137]⚡Spain’s MEP Irene Montero went nuclear in the European Parliament, accusing Europe of humiliating itself before Donald Trump: Do you still believe that by helping the United States to commit its crimes, we will be safe? Bombing and sanctioning Iran will not bring freedom to women. It will bring oil to Trump. The policy of appeasement did not prevent the war; it only made the monster bigger. Trump is the Hitler of the 21st century. We must isolate the United States and leave NATO now, not help them bomb Iran. Have some dignity. prayers are working. We are getting there. The buildup keep accelerating. The disengagement by one-time allies is being advocated and must materialize. Just as David prayed unto God to turn the counsel of Ahitophel to foolishness, So pray I now to thee, O Lord of Karma and Ruler of the Artic. Turn the counsel of Trump's cabinet and those of the European Parliament into foolishness. May they be divided into two main camps--some that will lick dry the Greenlandish poo of Trump against Denmark and those in the Spanish camp that would get mad, break all relations with the US and walk out the NATO exit door. And as the artic spirits in their eerie snake-like vectors, backed by the witch of Edom beckon on Trump to embark on this catastrophic real estate endeavor, may Hitler bellowed from the darkest part of hell, "thish ish my beloved Orange son, in whom I'm well reincarnated." And as the hordes of hell chorus "Amin" to this holy petition, grace our eyes to witness the Bear and the Dragon clinking glasses of vodka while the EU suffocate under a 500% tariff increase and empty energy storages --- Saddam Hussein standing by as the pump attendant ready to ease their shock and awe with Satan's Urine, while Eminem's "Mocking bird" plays in the background. Let the house say..... |
emmaodet:Well, it has now come to the stage where I'm no longer skeptical about Iran's readiness to counter the external threats posed by the hegemon nor afraid regarding its ability to hit back hard at the enemy. The way Tehran's counterintelligence handled and dismantled the sophisticated terrorist network cum CIA color coded revolution attempts in the recent riots has shown that the country has come along way after 12D, and is, in the voice of Pac, "ready for whatever." Be that as it may, you’re absolutely right that deterrence should be the priority, not rushing into military intervention after further destabilization has already happened. Sending weapons before conflict is part of that deterrence — and the recent flows of arms from Russia and China to Iran underscore exactly that dynamic. Russia and China aren’t simply issuing statements; there have been open indications of military support to Tehran aimed at shoring up its defenses after the latest regional fighting. The Chinese made it very clear that they will act if need be to ensure that there won't be a repeat of Venezuela. Since, and even before that statement Russian and Chinese cargo flights and military cooperation have tripled deliveries to Tehran, reflecting a real effort to bolster Iran’s ability to defend itself and signal that outside attacks would carry heavy costs. More concretely, a long-range Russian S-400 air defense systems and Chinese surface-to-air missile systems are currentlyas part of Tehran’s efforts to rebuild its defenses. These systems could make any future U.S. or US air campaign far more contested and costly. That’s the point: deterrence isn’t empty rhetoric. When a potential adversary has anti-access/area denial capabilities in place — whether supplied by Russia or China — it can raise the price of military action dramatically. In Iran’s case, these systems are designed to challenge U.S. air supremacy and increase risks to attacking forces, which, strategically, helps prevent war in the first place. This underscores your point that actions aimed at preventing destruction upfront are far better than trying to rebuild afterwards. So while debates about oil, sanctions, and geopolitical chess plays are valid, there’s real evidence that external support to Iran isn’t just symbolic — it feeds into a broader deterrence strategy that could give the U.S. serious blowback if it chooses a military path now. That’s exactly why many of the surrounding countries in the ME does no longer want to have anything to do with the US striking Iran from their territories. They knew with all certainty that the blowback from Iran would be catastrophic. That is deterrence. |
WriterrNg:LordAdam16, are you taking notes? The Simpsons prediction that Trump would batter the US economy before leaving office would come to pass. Fingers crossed. ![]() |
[quote author=WriterrNg post=138202077]⚡Denmark MP Rasmus Jarlov: “We will defend Greenland. If there is an invasion, by American troops, it would be a war. And we would be fighting against each other.” love this new found Danish temerity. ![]() By all means, oh Karma, let Trump take Greenland. Nothing screams “stable alliance” like NATO members preparing to shoot at American troops over a block of ice Denmark barely remembers exists except during press conferences. . Imagine the frontpage poetry: * NATO fighting NATO * Denmark discovering it has an army * The US discovering Article 5 doesn’t cover “Oops, we invaded an ally” And all of this just in time for the US midterm elections, where voters can reward Trump for dissolving NATO faster than the Soviet Union ever dreamed of — by annexing [b]Greenland and turning the alliance into a historical footnote. ![]() Denmark bravely vows to “defend Greenland,” which is adorable considering it can’t defend its own rhetoric without immediately calling Washington for reassurance. NATO, meanwhile, will hold an emergency summit to issue a "strongly worded statement" condemning itself. Best-case scenario: * Trump loses the midterms * Greenland becomes the most expensive real estate deal in history * NATO collapses under the weight of its own absurdity * Everyone pretends this was never about “shared values” anyway But yes — please continue lecturing the world about unity, deterrence, and international law… right after threatening war with your own security guarantor. Truly the zenith of Atlanticism. |
[quote author=WriteerNg post=138198310]⚡Q: Have you invited Putin to be on the Board of Peace? Trump: Yeah. He’s been invited. Q: Thoughts on Macron saying he will not join the Board of Peace? Trump: Did he say that? Nobody wants him because he’s going to be out of office very soon. If they feel hostile, I’ll put a 200% tariff on his wines and champagnes, and he’ll join. % tariffs. the prayers must work. ![]() |
WriteerNg:Wow! ![]() That’s one hell of a precious mental image for the Czech premier. But it has almost nothing to do with how strategic missiles actually fly, especially the huge varieties operated by the Russians. Let's school the idiot. ![]() 1. Russian ICBMs don’t need to “go over Greenland” to reach the US mainland. ICBMs follow great-circle routes and their flight path trajectory is determined by orbital mechanics infused into their designs, not straight lines on a globe you bought at a gift shop. From western Russia, the shortest path to many parts of the continental United States is actually over "the Arctic" often passing over or near northern Canada and the North Pole", not directly over Greenland. Well, I don't expect you morons like him to know because the prayers are working. Foolishness and delulu is your portion this year. ![]() 2. SLBMs and mobile launchers add other vectors. It's laughable that the Czech premier doesn't know the Oreshnik he mentioned is a mobile launcher that can be fired from anywhere. Russia doesn’t rely on fixed silo launches aimed only one way. Its sea-based ballistic missiles can be fired from strategic submarines in the Barents, Okhotsk, and Pacific---can approach the US from the north, south, or west without ever overflying Greenland. 3. Cruise missiles and hypersonics can take unpredictable routes. Newer Russian systems like the Kh-101 cruise missile or hypersonic glide vehicles can fly low and curve around air defenses. Currently, there is no defense weapon in the arsenal of the US that can stop the Oreshnik. Russia has hypersonic missiles that can be launched from aircraft or ships and can approach from many directions — again, no single geographic chokepoint like Greenland. 4. 25 minutes to the White House is an oversimplification. Flight time for an ICBM depends on launch location and trajectory. A missile from western Russia aimed at Washington might reach in 25–35 minutes, but that’s true regardless of whether it passes over Greenland or Canada. The key point is that strategic missiles exploit the curvature of the Earth and the physics of long-range flight, not the arbitrary location of a tourist landmark. Notwithstanding, the prayers must work. Sense must be taking away from them. Trump must take Greenland by force. If oppression is good for countries in Africa and elsewhere, it must be good for Europe as well. ![]() |
WriteerNg:Persia not giving room for complacency. This is reassuring. |
bryght4u:God must answer this one. ![]() |
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