GreenandGold:
1. North Africa is defending against imaginary foes
2. West Africa is busy with Islamists and coup d'etats
3. Southern Africa is boring

...BUT....

4. East Africa is getting lit

Isn’t the Horn of Africa; the most malnourished, poverty stricken, and conflicted region on the continent not a part of East Africa? Did they not just add the DRC the most historically bleeped country in Africa into their East African Federation?

The anglos, Chinese, south Asians, Israelites, and Arabs say high by the way.

SOURCES:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=l5xBJDociS4
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/24/ethiopian-pm-abiy-ahmed-joins-frontline-as-conflict-against-rebels-intensifies.html

The Ethiopian Prime Abiy Ahmed has vowed to take to the Frontline to lead his troops.

Act of exalted Patriotism, Desperation, or PR Stunt?

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is reportedly traveling to lead his security forces from the frontlines in the war effort against advancing Tigrayan rebels.

Abiy, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019, announced on social media on Monday that he would personally “mobilize to the front to lead the defense forces,” and urged Ethiopians to “rise up for (their) country.”

reported on Wednesday that Abiy had left for battle, with Deputy Prime Minister Demeke Mekonnen Hassen taking charge of the government in his absence.

Abiy will be joined by Olympic heroes Haile Gebrselassie and Feyisa Lilesa, both of whom have declared their intent to assist in the fight against an alliance of rebel groups led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

The prime minister served in the Ethiopian army during the 1998-2000 border war with Eritrea and obtained the rank of lieutenant colonel. As leader, he later ended nearly two decades of tension between the neighboring countries by signing a landmark peace deal in 2019.

Photos/Videos of this supposed action have yet to surface.

Sizzorkay:
Fire everywhere.
Poor Africa, we are fvked if nothing is done to address these crisis happening all over the place

Things are being done to various degrees of success & mediation depending on each unique situation.

GabrielYulaw:


Look at the guy in the picture holding an RPG 7 with his finger on the trigger. Yeah, the weapon is not cocked, but still....

Do these militants, rebels, and insurgents alike look like the type of people to practice muzzle or trigger awareness? Friendly fire is likely off the charts.

Inler77:

Sometimes, as I learned on this forum, negativity sells better and faster.

Bingo and we all should no some of the dealers here....

Trouble in the East continues to heat up as Somali Regional President Mustafa Cagjar announces that if TDF make their way to Addis Ababa Somali regional forces will be sent out in defense.

President Mustafe has expressed deep concern about the future of self-government in western Somalia, if Tirgay captures Addis Ababa and the government of Prime Minister Abi Ahmed collapses.

"If you hear that TPLF troops are advancing on Addis Ababa, you will also hear that Somali forces are heading to Addis Ababa to defend themselves from the enemy," said President Mustafe Cagjar.

He said it was not in the interest of the Somali people for Tigray to take control of Ethiopia, as he believed the group would not give up its idea of ​​creating a repressive regime for the country's ethnic groups.

Across the border in mainland Somalia Renewed clashes dim hopes of a credible election.

Several days of fighting between government troops and militia have heightened political uncertainty over the long-overdue national polls. In addition, there is still no agreement on the electoral procedure.

In a statement issued on Thursday, Sufi leader Sheikh Mohamed Shakir Ali Hassan said the central government had deployed more troops from the capital Mogadishu to the town of Guri-El in Galgaduud.

The violence affected medical services in the district, causing massive destruction at two hospitals in the area. As a result, more than 100,000 people fled to neighboring villages.

"We cannot describe the level of destruction by the conflict here in Guri-El district," Anas Abdi, a district commissioner, told DW. "But we are committed to all we can to bring those affected and displaced people back to the district, get assistance and restart their livelihood."

The fight against al-Shabab

The moderate Sufi group claimed it had taken over the area to intensify fighting al-Shabab insurgents in the region.

However, both state and central government officials believe the group's leaders were regrouping in an attempt to influence the regional administration in the upcoming elections.

Somalia's best-trained counter-terrorism forces are being used to fight another force [the Sufi moderate group] that has had great success fighting al-Shabab, according to Jay Bahadur, an independent researcher and journalist who has written a book on piracy in Somalia.

"The president of Somalia's constitutional term limit expired in February, and he has since been using foreign-trained security forces to cling to power," Bahadur said.

Several people have been killed in a car bomb attack at a checkpoint close to the president's residence in Mogadishu. The ultraconservative jihadi group al-Shabab has claimed responsibility.

A suicide car bomb attack killed multiple people in the Somalian capital Mogadishu on Saturday. The Islamist group al-Shabab has claimed responsibility for the attack that took place close to the presidential palace.

Citations:
[url] https://www.caasimada.net/cagjar-oo-shaaciyey-waxa-uu-sameyn-doono-haddii-ay-tplf-timaado-addis-ababa/ [/url]
[url] https://m.dw.com/en/somalia-deadly-explosion-kills-several-outside-the-presidential-palace/a-59306737 [/url]
[url] https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.dw.com/en/somalia-renewed-clashes-dim-hopes-of-a-credible-election/a-59656171 [/url]

Trouble in the East continues to heat up as Somali Regional President Mustafa Cagjar announces that if TDF make their way to Addis Ababa Somali regional forces will be sent out in defense.

President Mustafe has expressed deep concern about the future of self-government in western Somalia, if Tirgay captures Addis Ababa and the government of Prime Minister Abi Ahmed collapses.

"If you hear that TPLF troops are advancing on Addis Ababa, you will also hear that Somali forces are heading to Addis Ababa to defend themselves from the enemy," said President Mustafe Cagjar.

He said it was not in the interest of the Somali people for Tigray to take control of Ethiopia, as he believed the group would not give up its idea of ​​creating a repressive regime for the country's ethnic groups.

Across the border in mainland Somalia Renewed clashes dim hopes of a credible election.

Several days of fighting between government troops and militia have heightened political uncertainty over the long-overdue national polls. In addition, there is still no agreement on the electoral procedure.

In a statement issued on Thursday, Sufi leader Sheikh Mohamed Shakir Ali Hassan said the central government had deployed more troops from the capital Mogadishu to the town of Guri-El in Galgaduud.

The violence affected medical services in the district, causing massive destruction at two hospitals in the area. As a result, more than 100,000 people fled to neighboring villages.

"We cannot describe the level of destruction by the conflict here in Guri-El district," Anas Abdi, a district commissioner, told DW. "But we are committed to all we can to bring those affected and displaced people back to the district, get assistance and restart their livelihood."

The fight against al-Shabab

The moderate Sufi group claimed it had taken over the area to intensify fighting al-Shabab insurgents in the region.

However, both state and central government officials believe the group's leaders were regrouping in an attempt to influence the regional administration in the upcoming elections.

Somalia's best-trained counter-terrorism forces are being used to fight another force [the Sufi moderate group] that has had great success fighting al-Shabab, according to Jay Bahadur, an independent researcher and journalist who has written a book on piracy in Somalia.

"The president of Somalia's constitutional term limit expired in February, and he has since been using foreign-trained security forces to cling to power," Bahadur said.

Several people have been killed in a car bomb attack at a checkpoint close to the president's residence in Mogadishu. The ultraconservative jihadi group al-Shabab has claimed responsibility.

A suicide car bomb attack killed at multiple people in the Somalian capital Mogadishu on Saturday. The Islamist group al-Shabab has claimed responsibility for the attack that took place close to the presidential palace.

Citations:
[url] https://www.caasimada.net/cagjar-oo-shaaciyey-waxa-uu-sameyn-doono-haddii-ay-tplf-timaado-addis-ababa/ [/url]
[url] https://m.dw.com/en/somalia-deadly-explosion-kills-several-outside-the-presidential-palace/a-59306737 [/url]
[url] https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.dw.com/en/somalia-renewed-clashes-dim-hopes-of-a-credible-election/a-59656171 [/url]

Mkenya2019:
I don't need prays. Nigeria need them. This year alone - Nigeria Militia has been unable to prevent "Conflict and violence led to 169,000 new displacements in 2020 and about 2.7 million people were living in displacement as of the end of the year, ...:

IDPs in Nigeria increased by one million in last one year

I can't find any credible data verifying that but whatever helps you sleep at night my friend. In the meantime I'll be pray for everyone in Africa especially the Ethiopians, Somalis, Sudanese, and the residents of Nairobi, Mombasa, etc.

Mkenya2019:
What is the role of the army? What is the effectiveness of Nigeria Militia? The militia with about same budget as Kenya but with 360,000 underpaid, ill-trained, ill equiped troops?

If you do not know what defence job is - then let me help you.

The main task of the military is usually defined as defence of the state and its interests against external armed threats.

Has Nigeria done even half the job. NO. Annually one million Nigerians are being sent to IDP camps. Daily hundreds are getting killed. Lots of kidnapping. Jihadist are killing christian almost for sports. Fulani herdsmen are driving south killing almost at will. That is a ZOO NOT ANY DIFFERENT from SOMALIA. It's dysfunctional...both military and police.

And you want to talk about random terror attacks in Nairobi and Mombasa by lone wolf? Are you that crazy?

Nigeria Militia SHOULD NEVER be taken seriously except by fellow Nigerians.

I can even listen if you talk about the Egypt or South Africa or Kenya or Rwanda... those at least are able to do their BASIC JOB.

Nigeria? Go milk a camel or something more productive.

You claimed the NAFS isn't matching up to the KDF but I proved you wrong with easily accessible facts using your capitals getting routinely turned into killing fields as an example. Most of those perpetrators where in groups. All that despite getting help from AMISOM, The UN, USA, Britain etc. You couldn't provide a proper rebuttal.

Now you back at it again claiming the West wouldn't sale weaponry to Nigeria I contradicted you again proving you wrong with facts for example the planes and boats.

Now your trying to desperately claw yourself out of the corner I've bullied you into.

Your having a mental breakdown claiming hundreds are killed by the day in Nigeria by terrorists which just simply isn't true and the data to prove it is accessible to everyone. You claim those Nigerian troops are not as equipped and disciplined as there Kenyan counterparts despite the fact Al Shabaab has captured/killed Kenyan troops in the uncountable droves at a time parading there remains all over the net. According to my research nothing to that level has ever happened to the NA.

I talk about my home country Egypt all the time on the military & tourism threads around here. It has nothing really to do with Nigeria. I just simply saw you and a few others posting misinformation and I corrected it. I would have done the same and defended Kenya if anyone claimed the Somali army out performers the KDF.

Giving you bloody nose after busted lip after black eye is getting old and I don't enjoy it. I feel like I'm bullying a mentally challenged individual.


Your a delusional EMOTIONAL WRECK right now so word of advice. Take a break from nairaland; go outside and get some fresh air and maybe even touch a little grass while your at it.

NTSA:

I have gone through most of your posts on nairaland and honestly, you sound more of a pained Nigerian...nothing close to an Egyptian

Sure child go with whatever puts your mind at ease. Your going to need it...

I'm just reading the facts off in front of me.

Mkenya2019:
Only a fool would find Nigeria Militia praiseworthy. Your tantrums are understandable. This militia that US and Western boys have refused to sell arms because it will end up in Boko Haram. The last they had run to Russia.

I'm stating facts your the one throwing an emotional fit here becuase those facts aren't lining up with your expectations. Your still failing to dissect my statements I see. The Nigerians make purchases from the West all the time. They just got some planes from the Yankees and boats from the Euros.

There you go again exposing your own ignorance and embarrassing yourself.

Shma:


I never said anything of the sort. Maybe you're confusing me with justo30, who according to him, the root cause of Ethiopia's war is a peace deal.

Then your post is irrelevant and holds no water to my orginal conclusion. Thanks for wasting my time I guess.

Mkenya2019:
Why would I dignify your ranting about Nigeria Militia unable to defeat Boko Haram, Kidnappers and cattle rustlers with a rebuttal? Once there are no 8Ms Nigeria IDP being fed by UN in North East Nigeria - come and praise your useless militia.

You haven't told me anything that contradicts my final conclusion outside of flimsy allegations and childish insults.

I broke down the situation and you replied with pretty a "no way bro" and that's it. Grow up or get lost. I'm neither Nigerian or Kenyan and I have no biases; no reason to. I'm just reading the facts to you.

Shma:

You're a good reader, right?
Start with this:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Sudanese_Civil_War

you'll find the peace nego at page 3 and 5(signed at Nairobi), which didn't bear any fruit.

After that.. We'll move to Uganda,Somalia and Ethiopia in that order.

That's an interesting read but I'm sticking to my latter statement. There will be no peace deal between the Tigrey/allies and Addis Ababa in the feasible future. This will likely become a generational war.

Mkenya2019:
Ignorant Nigerian. Apart from Tanzania all Kenya neighbours have been mostly at war. Uganda were at war almost from 1960s through early 1990s. Sudan was at war almost until 2010 - then again started in 2014 - all that time - the south sudanase were fighting near kenya border. Ethiopia has been almost at war for most of last 50yrs - if it wasn't Derg, it was TPLF, then Ogaden rebels, then Oromo rebels - all of them fighting in kenya and ethiopia border. Move to the East...Somalia for 30yrs has been as worst worst...with fighting and no gov. Before that Somalia was supporting Kenya somalia secessionist forces.

For many years kenya has provided host to Uganda, Sudanase, Ethiopian and Somalia refugees. Kenya provide logistic support for UN and NGOS to provide support to those countries. Kenya provide safe haven for both refugees and warlords.

In short ignorant Nigerian - Kenya has always been surrounded by war torn countries - except for Tanzania - our southern border. Move further Rwandese and DRC wars see many of their refugees ending up in Kenya.

Kenya for most of it's modern history has been oasis of peace surrounded by war torn countries - with both negative and positive effect - negative mostly in small arms, terrorism and refugees...positive as investment is directed to Kenya than those war torn unstable countries.

Smh I'll pray for you...

NTSA:

What nationality are you ?

Egyptian of Moroccan descent.

Mkenya2019:
In short you're a Nigerian. The rest of your gibberish sound like Nigeria Militia defence. Kenya Defence force is a modern army. Not comparable to your country Militia.

In short you've failed to provide a proper rebuttal to a single one of my statements. Instead you've decided to brush it off like an immature child that just got told a truth they can't handle. That very child that has yet to develop advanced comprehension skills.

Stop embarrassing yourself.

vankelvin:


We Ghanaians prefer Ghanaian private owned Airlines to Government owned Airline.

Our Government and Egypt Air are working on a new National carrier for the country but guess what, Ghanaians are not interested in it. Some section of the public are against the move ...

Having a National airline is a big deal in Kenya but it's not in Ghana so give us a break.

Ghana signs joint airline deal with Egypt, bypassing Ethiopia
EgyptAir has signed an agreement with Ghana to create a national airline after a similar deal with Ethiopian Airlines fell through.

Privatization is the way to go. It's great to see more North-Sub Saharan partnerships going on it will benefit the integration of the continent in the long run.

It was a very wise decision considering Ethiopia probably want have a fully functioning airline themselves in the future.

Shma:


I think you're high on adulterated viagra. It's not the first time our neighbors are experiencing atrocities. We've been there before and nothing happened - Somali, Uganda, and Sudan being the worst cases. The only problem "which I can agree with you on," is loss of employment (to some small extent) - which will reduce remittance hence tempering with FDI which translates to a tiny percentage of our economy.

Again no; you have never experienced a large diverse & chaotic state collapsing at your doorstep while already being nearly surrounded by partially collapsed states. Your leaders aren't begging the hardest out of everyone for peace negotiations for no reason against the wishes of Addis Ababa.

Mkenya2019:
You're a nigerian joker pretending to be Egyptian. Which Mombasa is blowing up when it attracting millions of tourism - the same with Nairobi. Kenya is used to mess in horn of Africa....study your history. Kenya is not Nigeria where boko haram run the show with cattle rustlers and islamic jihadist...and kidnappers.

I'm not Nigerian; I'm just a realist following the facts at hand. I never said Mombasa was getting blown up(even though that has happened) I said Al Shabaab/islamist control the underground. As for Nairobi do I really need to go there? That places has been an on & off kenyan & tourist killing field for Al Shabaab for well over a dacade now. Photos/Videos of those Nairobi massacres litter the web with bodies in the streets, hotels, malls etc. I'd rather not post them so stop playing dumb. Walking into Nairobi is only moderately more difficult than walking into Mogadishu for Al Shabaab it seems.

Kidnappers/ human trafficking exists in every major region of the world including Kenya.

I have friends from Nigeria and thoroughly researched it(being the birth place of my wife) and from what I've found ISWAP don't get to march into Abuja, Lagos, Calabar etc and cut down Nigerians, immagrints, and foriegners. It's mostly contained to villages and small towns around Lake Chad.

It's not looking adequate for either one of you but going by the data the Nigerians have performed better dealing with ISWAP than Kenya with Al Shabaab. God forbid Ethiopia collapses.

In my humble opinion Algeria has performed the best in Africa in terms of combating local terrorism.

Mkenya2019:
Russia got their reply long time ago in Afganistan.
NATO just got whopped despite spending trillion of dollars in Afgan.
Veitnam did the same to the US.
Rwandese took a month to overthrow DRC GOV - DRC is maybe 20-30 times bigger in land than Rwanda.
Rwandese troops just went to CAR and fixed it.
Rwandese troops just are in Moz and have kicked Islamist in a few weeks.

Weapons dont fight. Human fights.

The biggest asset in any army is the TROOPS.

Look at Ethiopia - Little Eritrea made them landlocked.

Now see their 1 million troops with 1,0000 tanks being taken to cleaners by few Tigray rebels.

I predicted the Ethiopia Militia would be taken to cleaners long time ago - maybe 4yrs ago!

The same way Nigeria Militia cannot be called Armed Force by anybody serious.

Look at Saudi Arabia being beaten blue by Yemenis...yet they have gazillion of weapons.

Rwanda like South Africa has a routine of making brief appearances in conflicts shooting up a couple people calling it a win before flying out with the battle still raging behind them. The Rwandese haven't "fixed" sh1t.

Are Islamist and Yemeni forces performing massacres in Riyadh, Jeddah, or any major capital city like Al Shabaab gets to do in Kenya?

Mkenya2019:
Which war? Chinese are minning and poisining your river. You Ghana are probably the most cowardly after Mali and Ivory coast.

Nigeria were crying for British and American soldiers to help them deal with HOME GROWN terrorist.

Without the French army - the entire west african would be overrun by Northern Islamist.

Ask US army what they saw in Somalia in Black Hawk Down in 1990s - they have never dare entered Somalia - Somalia forces fought them non stop for 24hours brought their choppers down and dragged their bodies across mogadishu- but likes of Kenya are in Somalia.Somalia is closes to afgan as you can get.

China unofficially owns Kenya your in no room to talk being deep in the debt trap with Chinese managers whipping your laborers like slaves.

The Nigerians never asked for American or British direct help to fight ISWAP. There are no Americans or Brits on ground fighting them. Matter of fact I believe Nigerians leaders out right rejected that level of assistance. The West only trains with the Navy while PMCs help train the special forces.

Meanwhile in Kenya PMCs and ex foriegn special forces patrol your streets while you get direct help from AMISOM, UN PEACEKEEPERS,
and western intelligence gatherers around the clock. Isn't Kenya littered with British military bases? Isn't there a scandal going on where said soldiers raped and killed a few of your women?

The french only stepped in when there assets in Mali came under threat. Some conspiracy theorist even believe the french are funding regional instability to keep there Francophones firmly under there influence.

jl115:
you do know this is the 5th coup(4 have been successful btw) attempt in Africa.... This year alone?.....

Me saying its nothing new isn't condoning the actions, but rather emphasising how fvcked Africa is as a whole.... Hence TIA....

Well considering a lot of these guys need to be thrown out it's not a bad thing to topple dictators. Besides most of these attempts are in the same small countries.

There are more terrorist cells operating in Asia than Africa. Not to mention many of the nations are wagging proxy wars on themeselves and each other all the time. Don't get me started with the hyper militarization and WMDs. One of them just got conquered by a terrorist organization in under a year. Is Asia as a whole fvcked? Europe and Asia are technically the same landmass is Eurasia fvcked?

Mkenya2019:
Senseless rant as always. Nigeria militia is as useless as your comment. It cannot secure Nigeria and Nigerians. That raison detre of having armed force.

Doesn't Al Shabaab control the Mombasa underground and annually shoot/blow up Nairobi along with a couple other of your major cities? Aren't there videos on YouTube of KDF soldiers being captured/slaughtered in mass by Al Shabaab? All that despite getting massive help from AMISOM and foriegn powers. Never heard of that happening in Nigeria, Ethiopia(Until recently) , Niger, or even Chad.

gallivant:


We told you already, the Ethiopian, DRC, Tanzanian and Nigerian military is actually just militia. You can easily tell by their pathetic defense budgets that it wouldn't take much to disperse them in a conflict.

Nearly all those countries you listed have both superior Defense Budgets and/or Hardware than Kenya. None of you have impressive defense budgets compared to most of the rest of the world. Your a pot calling the kettle black.

Shma:

Ethiopia will fall? yes. You're absolutely spot on. The anarchism will bury Ethiopia for good. If the Ethiopian government doesn't stand its ground, it will be torn down to war graves.

Ethiopia's fall will affect Kenya? Yes. Kenya will be positively affected by the ethio war. We'll gain a more competitive advantage especially from regional airlines - one of them being bole - the biggest KQ challenger. If ethio is Affected, Some key economic fields in Kenya will gain momentum, hence, economic boom!

You want receive any type of competitive edge you'll be tagged an unreliable vulnerable state. You'll have a better airline than Ethiopia so what? Eho's flying to or investing in a endangered nation in the middle of a collapsed region? No your foriegn dominated airline along with most your economic fields will head towards an economic slump if Ethiopia collapses.

Saddamochieng00:


I thought the dude had won a Nobel prize some few years back and everything was on track for them to become a powerhouse in Africa. I guess Kikuyu1 was right all along.

Saddamochieng00:


Ethiopia seems to be in some serious trouble now. With all their military might I'd expect them to be crushing all this rebel groups.

The Horn of Africa and East Africa in general are in some degree of trouble. Ethiopia has always been overhyped. They don't lead or excel at anything in Africa yet they where supposed to be the future continental powerhouse? The only semi smart decision they made was to build the dam.

obaaderemi:
You like deceiving yourself.
For years Kenya has had issues with having a failed state by its side in the nonentity called Somalia. There's been a spate of attacks in Nairobi itself not to mention northern Kenya.
If Ethiopia goes same way, the problem gets bigger.
The economy of the subregion gets affected too, especially Kenya's economy which is already prostrate.
The other countries surrounding you have little to lose. They're down already.

There economy is going to get Tsar bombed just by association of being nearly surrounded by failed states falling into further anarchy. That's not even factoring in the massive refugee crisis that would head there way. Not to mention the probability of Al Shabaab ramping up operations in the chaos.

Shma:

Nice perception. This is a foreseeable event by conspiracy theorists which will not happen, unfortunately. Kenya is an organized country. We know who to bring to our soil and who not - we know when the move is good and when it's of security threat. For example, plans for the closure of the biggest refugee camps in the north are underway - Kenyans are too smart to anticipate the move, conspiracy theorists bring the debate to the table, the govnt sets a long-term plan to counter it. Strategies are already in the plan for any foreseeable event.
Check this out:
Kenya demanded that the U.N. refugee agency, UNHCR, present a “road map” in two weeks that details how the evacuation of the refugees can proceed.

UNHCR said it would continue the dialogue and had asked Kenya to guarantee protection for the refugees.

In a statement, the agency said, "The decision would have an impact on the protection of refugees in Kenya, including in the context of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.”

Fred Matiang’i, the interior minister who issued the ultimatum, said there was “no room for further negotiations,” according to the ministry on Twitter.

On Tuesday, Kenyan authorities told the UNCHR that refugees would be sent to the border with Somalia if the camps were not closed, the Interior Ministry confirmed to Reuters.

The camps, Dadaab and Kakuma, are in the northern part of the country and are home to more than 410,000 people from Somalia and South Sudan.

Plans to shut the camps began in 2016 when Kenyan authorities cited national security concerns, but a high court blocked the move, calling it unconstitutional.

The concerns arose from intelligence that pointed to elements within the camps who were involved in attacks on Kenya in 2013 and 2015.


Sh*t already happened but our government is firm. We can't allow the atrocities of the past to wreak havoc in the future.

No; nothing of this catastrophic level has ever happened at the borders of Kenya. If you think repatriating some thousands of Somali civilians is an adequate learning experience your in for a rude awakening. Your looking at this at surface level. You want have a choice they'll be getting in of there own accord anyway they see fit. Even if by some unrealistic miracle nothing directly leaks into Kenya the regional fallout itself would Tsar Bomb your economy just by association. You'll be an unreliable vulnerable nation.

mtisTheQubit:

Few armies can boast of being tough. Angola and Kenya are two examples. They went to battle and won. Consider Ethiopia. Roles have shifted. They were on top and gloating the other day, but now things are rough... S. A army is woke. Naija must show themselves by fighting the Boko lads... Egypt is all rhetoric with no action. They are terrified of Ethi and the Israelis.
Just as Kazi would say.Show what you've got...the same goes for military rank...you can't pretend you're powerful but don't show it.

The Kenyan Army hasn't proven themselves reliable in anything. They've been bogged down in Mogadishu for years and have been letting terrorists slip right past there fingers wreaking havoc in northern Kenya, Nairobi and, other major cities across Kenya despite getting massive direct assistance from nearly every other nation in the region.

The Angolan Army is untested in these modern times.

South Africa's army is the most well equipped in sub Saharan Africa but all they do most of the time is show up shoot up a few of the bad guys and shrubs call it a win and fly out with the war they just left still raging.

The Nigerians ain't perfect but they've already showed themselves to be at least the 2nd most competent force in sub Saharan Africa. In there 10 years of fighting bokoharem has never captured a capital or moved beyond the north east region.

Today there just scavangers clinging to life around Lake Chad. The NAFS have accomplished this while fighting abroad in Darfur, Mali, Guinea, Gambia, and even Somalia to a much lesser extent. They've performed better than the militaries of Ethiopia, Sudan, Kenya, Ugamda, Mali, Niger, and Chad that's for sure.

The Egyptian Armed Forces could level the dam and all of Ethiopia if we pleased but where just trying to be the bigger men here and settle it like adults and not the overgrown children Ethiopians are by the day exposing themselves to be. Israel is not risking it to protect some Ethiopians. Egypt isn't rated 1# in Africa & The Middle East for no reason.

mtisTheQubit:

Stop smoking weed naija man..its not like we didnt have thousands of refugees from somali,sudan an Ethiopia before..We are used to ths..we not like other countries i know

I'm Egyptian; I'm just being realistic pondering hypothetical outcomes based on the data at hand. No your not used to this potential catastrophe in the making. You've experienced nothing even close to this level.

Shma:
Sh*t is happening in Ethiopia. Why are guys so quiet on this issue?
@justnotyou
@jl115
@mtsithequibit
@obaaderemi
@kikuyu
@sadam
@gallivant
@kazikazi
@justozombie
@vaxx

And all the intellectuals.

Mkenya2019:
Ethiopia Army is an overrated Militia like Nigeria. That is why Eritrea beat them. Poorly trained, poorly remunerated, and with old rusted equipment's. Abiy is gone, the army or militia, is folding up camp, and being arrested in thousands. The 9 rebels alliance will make a quick run for Adis Ababa where Abiy is trying to put a human shield.

The future for Ethiopia is grim. They need to go for even more stronger federalism otherwise they could split into many countries.

As for PM Abiy - he is definitely headed to ICC for crimes against humanity.

The Future of East Africa is Grim.

Ethiopia at this rate is going to collapse leading to entire regional catastrophe. The regions "strongest" nation destroyed, flooding in droves into neighboring countries creating a chain reaction. Ethiopia will become a breading ground for terrorism and ethnic genocide leading to even more wide spread famine & crime. Investors and diplomats are already pulling out leaving Ethiopia abandoned an international outcast after there anti western protest.

Sudan more fragile than ever is in a never ending cycle of Coups with Ethiopian Refugees already flooding in. Already abandoned by the international community.

Eritrea has been the North Korean like basket case of the region for some time now. There already inflicting revenge on there exiled citizens living in Ethiopia and ethnic violence on the Tigray.

Djibouti will be swallowed up in the Ethnic instability with citizens taking shelter in the capital and around foriegn bases.

In Somalia Al Shabaab will get bolder than ever in the wake up Ethiopia's collapse and when AMISOM troops inevitably start pulling out to deal with the humanitarian disaster building up at and in there own borders. Somaliland will take this opportunity to officially succeed with them likely being overrun as well. Ethnic Somalis that make up most of eastern Ethiopia will rebel as well.

South Sudan is already post apocalyptic nothing much will change.

Uganda is the region's second basket case. Refugees will be flooding in creating national upheaval making them fall to South Sudan level.

Rwanda & Burundi are wildcards but they'll be surrounded by total anarchy. Collapse to there North/East & a hostile Congo to there West.

Last but not least Kenya the most attractive nation bordering Ethiopia will see a massive influx of refugees from all around Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan etc. This as well as the regional instability will see Kenyan forces stretched thin dealing with the fallout, refugees, local upheaval, and Al Shabaab who will be marching into Northern Kenya to reclaim ethnic land. Mass panic and media blackouts will be the norm along with rioting in the streets and looting.

You can expect the gradual departure of the international investors Kenya is dependent on along with ethnic European, Israeli, Arab, and Indian elite scrambling to get out of the nation taking there business & fortunes with them. I don't see Kenya totally collapsing but it will more than likely end up like like a gross fusion of Mali in the early 2010s and Zimbabwe. The Kenyan politicians know what is going to happen which is why there begging there Ethiopian counterparts for peace negotiations.

The only nations I see sparred the brunt of this catastrophe is Tanzania and the island nations like Seychelles if you count them as East African.

East Africa just might become even more of the hotbed of Africa than it already is with the region being the continental capital of poverty,
Malnutrition, and hunger. This has the recipe to be the humanitarian disaster of the Century.

SOURCES: [url] https://www.npr.org/2021/11/07/1051940127/rebels-are-closing-in-on-ethiopias-capital-its-collapse-could-bring-regional-cha [/url]
[url] https://allafrica.com/stories/202111060027.html [/url]
[url] https://www.circleofblue.org/2021/world/hotspots-h2o-as-famine-looms-in-east-africa-humanitarian-groups-call-for-urgent-action/ [/url]

Kazikazi:
Am busy showing you our folks,but you seems very pained.
Hohohohohohohoho Hohohohohohohoho

That's not an answer.

komekn:


What you have not done is to consider first of all the genesis of this war, which is actually internally political.

The second thing to consider is the regional, ethnic dynamics. These people have more in common than what could possibly devide them.

This may find combatants not too willing to spill blood for thier political master's. That affects moral and discipline. The Tigray ( landlocked) are almost entirely using abandoned weaponry by the Ethiopian to prosecute this war.

That tells you something, look at the thousands of Ethiopian soldiers captured/ surrendered prisoners of war who do not look like they are being treated badlyl

My projections are if they enter Addis Ababa with s not so popular ( forget the government sponsored rallies) there will be dancing in the streets of with a collapse of f the existing not so popular government.

Not too long ago there was mass protests against the government of. Abiy Ahmed which was put down violently.

Let's not see things with superficial eyes.

That's a very enlightening and informative read on the ethnic politics of Ethiopia but my statement stands.

Addis Ababa residents being asked to get ready to fight.

Ethiopia PM says there is ‘sacrifice to pay’ as Tigray forces advance on Addis Ababa.

Rebels advance to within 200 miles of Ethiopia’s capital puts the city.

"After a year of grinding conflict in Ethiopia’s mountainous north, thousands of opposition forces this week pushed their way to within 200 miles of the capital Addis Ababa, forcing the city’s residents to gird for the possibility that the war will soon be on their doorsteps and triggering a cascade of frantic preparations across the region".

Abiy declared a state of emergency that allows for conscription of “any military age citizen who has weapons.” The mayor called on residents to take up arms to secure their neighborhoods. The military asked veterans to reenlist. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who won the Nobel Peace Prize two years ago, has vowed to “bury this enemy with our blood and bones.”

BURY THIS ENEMY WITH OUR BLOOD AND BONES!

Sources:
[url] https://english.alarabiya.net/amp/News/world/2021/11/06/Ethiopia-PM-says-there-is-sacrifice-to-pay-as-Tigray-forces-advance-on-Addis-Ababa [/url]
[url] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/11/06/ethiopia-addis-ababa-tplf/ [/url]

[url]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0O2EsnrWgjA [/url]

komekn:


Objectivity requires that you have a non partisan approach to your analysis and be devoid of sentiment and emotive based preference.

You have described the Ethiopian Armed forces as. "SURPRISING INCOMPETENCE"

Someone even mocked the Ethiopian air forces implying they cant even maintain sophisticated SU27 they have. Again emotive prejudiced based assumptions .

If you like try a balance score card approach and look at the Nigerian armed forces.

Do you know how the Nigerian armed forces are viewed both regionally and internationally in general .

Don't just have a self birthed conceited Nigerian based parochial view.

I'm not even Nigerian; I'm just following the data. Yes; I thought the Ethiopian Armed Forces would have performed better than this. They have some of the most sophisticated equipment in Sub Saharan Africa and used to be rated 2nd to only South Africa. So yes I'm SURPRISED there getting dominated by foot rebels at such a level weaker nations have swept. I don't no much about there maintenance and never commented on it began with.

How the Nigerian Armed Forces is viewed varies depending on who you ask and there motives. Right now there militery performance on the battlefield ain't ideal but is outperforming "just about" every other country in sub Saharan Africa. I don't think there special but there clearly more competent than your usual African nation

The fact of the matter is Bokoharam in all there forms have been campaigning in a revelant compacitity since 2009 and they've never made it beyond the North East or Greater Lake Chad Region of West Africa and today there no more than glorified scavangers sensationalized to hell and back thanks to politics. They couldn't even take a state capital.

That's progress.

The Tigrey didn't start seriously campaigning until 2018 and there already pulling up at the National Capital despite Ethiopia being more militarized than Nigeria at the start of there conflict.

That's decline.

You can't argue with the facts starring you dead in the face.

I said I'm pretty sure the Ethiopian soldiers are doing the best they can with what there given and that this incompetence is more than likely do to the top officials. So there wasn't even disrespect.

slimthugchimee2:


This is literally the dumbest thing I have seen this month

So you think iswap wants to continue with the ridiculous hit and run tactics?

So if you ask iswap leader if he wants to take Maiduguri he will answer

"No I just want to keep hitting and running forever"

ISWAP would love to take Maiduguri, Abuja etc but they can't thanks to the NAF there redused to being Lake Chad scavangers to make it through the day.

Al Shabaab would like to take Mogadishu but they can only control the underground thanks mostly to AMISOM.

Tigray rebels would enjoy taking Addis Ababa and they JUST MIGHT at this rate thanks to the suprising incompetency of the Ethiopian Armed Forces Chain of Command. I'm pretty sure the individual soldiers on the front are trying there best with what they got.

The Taliban have long dreamed of taking Kabul and they did!