₦airaland Forum

SonofElElyonRet:
Okay "Numbsome J"
You should've noticed that I changed my position to admitting to the possibility that I was wrong and told you to hold dangote responsible for my initial position.. further "evidence" adduced have since made me drop my earlier position.. good morning

Next time, take corrections with maturuty rather than this sort of sheer frustration, I'm not responsible for your ignorance, I only helped educate it.

SonofElElyonRet:
You are mundane not awesome. And the J probably stands for joke of the century...
You would blame me for believing what I heard dangote himself say right? I now concede I was wrong thanks to reasonable refined people who pointed it out. I did not concoct the statement. Blame Dangote, Awesome Jester

No, I blame you for being too stubborn to read. Cos I clearly showed you the section in the prospectus, but you preferred to advertise your folly.

SonofElElyonRet:
1. Doubting Thomas isn't name calling
2. You are overly sensitive
3. Nairametrics reported it, posted a video in which dangote stated it
4. If quoting dangote is spreading false news then hold dangote responsible since you know more than dangote and vetiva the lead advisers
5. Did you even bother to watch the video that nairametrics posted?
6. Your aggression is uncalled for
7. Didn't ask you to believe or not believe me since I didn't originate the news.. you may choose to doubt or believe dangote. Your choice
8. Selah
9. Shalom

Buy on your false information and share evidence of your illusionary bonus when you get it in your imaginary world.

I wonder why reading is plain English is this hard for you.

emmanuelewumi:
Not sustainable. Margin will come down whenever we have peace in the middle east

This may not necessarily be true.

Cos the petrochemicals business has better margins, they might have ramped that up significantly before things normalize in the oil markets.

Also H1 results were only helped by 4 months of the war not the entire 6 months. H2 will also get at least 4 months of elevated oil prices, cos the market likely won't normalize by next month. So FY '26 should at least be 2x what they reported in H1.

Their biggest win in my opinion is breaking into advanced markets and pulling strong demands from all those geographies.

That's just me adding a perspective, I've never dealt in the primary market, my own is to help the stock's liquidity once they list and I love it like that.

SonofElElyonRet:
Mr doubting Thomas, I just heard dangote quote vetiva boss (lead advisers) in a video that there'll be bonus of 1 for every 10. Nairametrics carried the story as such..
Go fact check ...
▶️ Watch Aliko Dangote explain why investors who hold their shares for one year will get 1 bonus share for every 10 held, and why he believes the IPO could be fully oversubscribed.

Why the name calling?
Who are you that I should believe or doubt whatever you say?

Part of my contributions here is to correct misinformation that folks like you peddle.

I believe you can read simple English clauses.

I also believe you know which statement hold water in the court of law between what's in the official prospectus and whatever else you hear from whomever

SonofElElyonRet:
Has said he'll give 1 for 10 scrip within 2 years of listing

It's not 1 for 10. It's 1 bonus share regardless of the volume you hold from 10 and above.

1 bonus share for 12-month holding
A second bonus share if you continue holding for a total of 24 months.

So whether you hold 10 or 10,000, you get 1 share bonus so long you're a retail investor.


You saying 1 for 10 would make someone holding 10,000 units expect a bonus of 1000 shares, that's wrong, such a person only gets 1 share.

jonnysessy:
Good evening everyone, I have a sister abroad and she knows am into stock investment. While she was in Nigeria she was not interested in stocks. But, i am surprised she interested in this Dangote IPO. In fact, she said i should use my daughter's name and buy for her. This was because i told her she needs to register with a stockbroker and would have BVN, NIN, clearing house number and CSCS number. I know in the past people had used multiple identity to buy IPO for fear of over-subscription and they eventually lost their shares. I also what to avoid issues of shares transfer. You need to visit the Registrars those days in Lagos when you have issues with your shares. The thing used to be very stressful. I guess such bottlenecks no longer exists as electronic media and digital age had improved the way we share business is being conducted.

I hope am not digressing too much, my question is how can my sister abroad be able to take part in this Dangote Refinery IPO herself. I don't want to use my daughter's name to buy for her. Moreso my daughters are not even having BVN (which i feel is one of the requirement). I also like to maintain my integrity with her, i don't want the buying of shares to bring issues between us. Please the gurus in the house should help a brother.

There are 4 full weeks till it closes. That's enough time for her to get the regular BVN or diaspora BVN, whichever one is easier for her.


Also the stock will be available to buy from November, people should not see it as if you miss IPO, you're never getting in. The stock is indeed listing, so that's a backup option.

The only risk with the second option is Otedola. He might have some cash to burn and push the price to unrealistic levels.

Agbalowomeri:
Oga you wan borrow trillions
We are not slashing anything for you

Before nko? Since you've gone to park inside fixed income, what would you advocate for?

I'm just speaking on what's healthy for the economy, at this point what Cardoso is doing with this prolonged elevated rates is probably worse than the ways and means printing they complained about.


Imagine a company growing earnings at just 10% per annum but is fond of always doing a 1 for 3 bonus every year, whereas their ccounterpart with comparable assets and earnings only always does 1 for 20 bonus.


At the end of 5 years, it's not rocket science to know which of the share would trade a a steep discount.

GeneralDae:
Yes but the question is where is the flow of the 10 trillion as opposed to the 20 trillion? The 20 trillion would likely stay in OMO bills and NTB to keep earning that 20% as the people who do these investments now are incentivised to hold it there due to high yields. The 10 trillion would likely chase USD because the real rates of having USD would give more returns.

Where is stays isn't the point here, the point is whether the money supply grows or not? And now we've established a higher rate grows it faster.

If you simply plan to keep mopping up, you're just delaying the inevitable while ultimately ballooning your cost of money management to unsustainable levels.

Imagine two central banks starting with a base N100trn money supply, one decided on a 12% rate, the other does 26% and plans to keep rolling over mop ups, run the numbers to see the reality in 10 years:

The healthy bank has N310trn in money supply, while the other has an economy crumbling 1 quadrillion naira.

If the reserves were at $60bn in 10 years, N310trn would price the currency at N5166 to the dollar, while the latter would have be at N16,700.


Remember the FPIs you keep rolling over aren't bound by any contract to hold their funds with you perpetually.

If at a point they decide to pull out of your country, they hold N150trn instead of what could have been N70trn, there just would inevitably be much more naira than you have dollars for.

Then as for more the more credit angle, you're right.

Cos in a fixed period of time, interest is equally a function of principal as it is of rates

1. However if rates get slashed by 50%, Principal would have to grow by 100% to yield the same level of interest

2. Slashing rates by 50% is something that can happen within 6 months if the CBN means business, but growing credit by 100% would take many years. Cos for instance, there are people and even businesses who wouldn't automatically take loan just cause it's now priced at 15% instead of 30% , they simply won't take it cos they have no need for it.

3. If the banks due their due diligence and are able to indeed grow credit by 100%, a significant chunk of that would have translated to more manufacturing plants and more businesses and job creation which is a delight for the economy.

4. Portions of finance cost savings for businesses would either get directly passed to their customers or shareholders in terms of higher net earnings and dividends.


5. Finally how many developed economy with valuable currency do you know with rates above 5% talk less of 10% or this outrageous 28% effective? Even in africa, I think only Zimbabwe had a higher rate, and now they might even be dropping theirs below ours cos nice things were recently reported about their inflation numbers.

Like what exactly are they thinking to be doing 26.5% at this point, you want to keep FPIs happy with juicy yields but do you really need them that much anymore with a $54bn buffer? Why not begin normalizing?

Even Emefiele, after his elevated yields from 2017 through 2019, he started tapering eventually, only that 1. He overdid it by taking yields below 1% like below even 0.5% at some point 2. Covid with negative oil price then added salt to his injury.

GeneralDae:
I understand your point but like I said the last time we had this debate, I still don’t understand how slashing interest rate reduces money supply, if anything there would be credit expansion and a higher demand from the private sector competing with Government borrowing from the local market.
I would agree with you that we can begin to cut it down, I just want to understand this part of your premise.

If you have a N100 trn domestic debt volume.

You could price it at 10% and create new N10trn in interest payments or you could price it at 20% and instead create N20trn in new money.

Same dilution happens with OMO mop ups as well as private sector credit. A higher interest rate translates directly into more naira getting printed.

I hope I communicated this well.

It's time for Cardoso and his team to seriously start considering a steep cut in the MPR.

There really isn't any rational keeping it at 1000bps above inflation at this point.


I imagine cost of OMO issuances on their balance sheet alone to already exceed N2trn per annum, not to mention the huge cost of domestic government debt due to this their persistent elevated rates.


The biggest downside I've always mentioned is the dilution of the money supply which is now approaching N140trn if not already above that.


I hope they begin to see reason at this next meeting and start with at least a cut, no matter how little.

It would be healthy for the economy and for our market as well.

If not, naira might just be sitting on another delayed explosion, cos money supply would grow faster than the reserves ever could especially if things ease up in Iran.

mikeapollo:
Misplaced, irrelevant digression and analogy.
What we are discussing is about whether govt is collecting revenue enough and adequate to take care of governance responsibilities with the inefficiencies (waste, corruption) in the system.
The inefficiencies are not going away soon.
So tell us how reducing govt revenue (hypothetically from N100 to N70) would enable govt build more schools, roads, hospitals, pay slaries etc.

This is not about an entity in the private sector which may even decide to liquidate and wind up

At this point, you're no longer worth a response, you're just taking up valuable space on the thread with your cyclical incoherent back and forths.

mikeapollo:
Na wa oo!
Okay, I agree the main issue is inefficiency in utilization of funds!
Will the "inefficiency" be resolved or eliminated when the funds (hypothetically) is refuced from N100 to N70?
If the inefficiency, (wastage, corruption etc) would still be there, then why or how would you think that the lower amount (N70) will be enough to fix roads, schools, etc where N100 was never enough?

Your idea is to scale up the failure??

You have a company. They did a RI at N70 per share.

6 months later, their results are out? Losses doubled, administrative expenses quadrupled, balance sheet shrank 50%. The market reacts and your portfolio bleeds 60% on the stock.

Then they announce another RI plan at N100 per share, shebi you will gladly take up your rights with them cos you like to argue 😁

mikeapollo:
Someone receives N100 and he is unable to fix roads, schools, hospitals etc.
Now, the same person is expected to receive N70 and give N30 to others (called shareholders). Do you now expect him to be able to take care of the same (or even more) roads, schools, hospitals etc with N70?

Wish you good luck!

This thing isn't rocket science.

Why not explain why that person who is unable to do much with the N100 they currently receive is adjudged as being efficient by you??

Cos I clearly stated that the issue here is effective utilization, but you seem to like arguments.

mikeapollo:
Even when the govt alone is collecting 100% of all these revenues, taxes, royalties etc, the roads, hospitals, schools etc are bad.
Now you want to give part of the funds to other ''shareholders''

Govt is busy borrowing because of ''inadequate funds'', but here you are, saying the issue is ''efficient utilization of funds''!
We like speaking grammar with terminologies in this country, just to twist narratives and support our position!

Your opinion is that borrowing more money is proof that they're utilizing their revenue efficiently??

You seem to like making statements that contradict yourself.

It's not hard to see that if the funds they currently get were efficiently utilized, they won't need to borrow at least not as much, why you think otherwise is strange.

megawealth01:
3 reasons why I'm not buying Dangote refinery IPO.

1. Money does not make noise.
2. Wealth does not invite you to 'join us.'
3. [b]The people who will make money in the short term are those who bough[/b]t private placement. This is not financial advice

© Praise George

And traders of course 😎

mikeapollo:
Okay ooo. Imagine NNPC getting listed and HNI like Otedola, Elumelu, etc buys like 50%-70%+ of the shares. And they collect billions of naira as dividends every year with most roads, schools, hospitals in Nigeria still bad!

Again, if they collect 70%, it only reduces the profit portion of FG's income from NNPCL, It doesn't at all reduce the taxes and Royalties, if anything it will likely increase those cos the entity will have significantly bigger operations.

Then out of the 70%, the government still gets 10% minimum as taxes when those billionaires take the profit.

Ultimately, the issue with Schools, hospitals and roads won't be availability of funds but largely efficient utilization of funds.

And this is not just theory, cos you and I know that US which is the largest producer of crude and produces over 12 times what we produce has no NNPCL equivalent, but their schools and hospitals aren't on the same level as Nigeria's.


This is not to mention that in reality, elumelu and otedola can't raise the liquidity to by 30% of NNPCL talk less of 70%.

Where do you think the 10 richest Nigerians outside Alhaji and RABIU would get $50bn combined?

What is there's no Yari to buy another overpriced Otedola's stake, isn't his asset mostly just paper valuation?

Fbn isn't really worth 5x accesscorp na.

Agbalowomeri:
We no get strength to analyse

My garri don finish

😁😁

If market was bullish, this thread would have hit 11,000 pages before Monday.

Now, analyses don't abound. 😁

Soon though, very soon.

mikeapollo:
NNPC will not list the major upstream business because that is where profit on sale of crude is used to finance the national budget.
Only the downstream business (retail filling stations) can be listed and that is nowhere near $70b or Dangote.

[b]No National Oil company (NOC) would list its major upstream business on a stock exchange [/b]and distribute its earnings to shareholders (who may be billionaires already) instead of using the funds to finance the budget and develop the nation. It wont happen!

You're saying Aramco(2222) doesn't include the upstream business? check well na.

There's no big deal listing NNPCL's upstream business, it doesn't stop the government's revenue.

If NNPCL lists with MoFI and the petroleum ministry still holding 90% of the entity, the government will still be getting 90% of the profits and 100% of the taxes and Royalty it currently gets.

The 10% dip in profit they currently get might even be recovered several folds if the company becomes more efficient on listing, especially if the capital raised from the 10% dilution is redeployed into the business.

Imagine 10% stake sold to raise $7bn that makes their NEPC subsidiary start producing an extra 200k boepd as an operator. That alone would make the government get more revenue overall compared to the status quo.

Streetinvestor2:
The only stock I regret not buying when it was 500/600 on ngx remains saplet. I was waiting for 350/400 range.That one was life time missed opportunity

SEPLAT is being overbought it seems.
I imagine you used the money to buy other stocks that have also performed a bit?

Streetinvestor2:
I just laugh at the maths this man applied. God will keep us alive. He said your 5k investment will give you 300k in 2 or 3 yrs..How can he make such bogus statement from that H2 2026 results
When the market woman goes to buy 10 units and hoping to see such in 3 yrs and it never happens. They will see stocks as all those scam like MMM etc

I'm not really a fan of Mr Bismarck's maths. at least 20% of the time, his numbers don't follow imo.

mikeapollo:
The listing may be done earlier, but getting the shares credited to your CSCS account may take longer.
I am not even sure if they still issue share certificates nowadays

Allotment will happen before listing. i.e subscribers will have the shares in their CSCS before they list.

megawealth01:
WOW. So there's hope bayi?

Certainly sir 😁😁

Agbalowomeri:
Ahh you say no election bear

No election bear.

The election results alongside FY'26 results will make the rally enter a higher gear from January.

Agbalowomeri:
Make this market hurry up fall yakata
My garri don dey finish for village

If you don't buy this month, you might not be able to get in again.

Market will resume bulls from next month till at least May of 2027.

Even this September will hold 235k if not 240.

Agbalowomeri:
Is it Maths or Arithmetic

😁

ghm:
Weight of the Dangote Ecosystem in NGX

The Total (Refinery + Cement + Sugar + NASCON - as at 3/9/2026): ₦65.22T + ₦17.45T + ₦874.58B + ₦526.97B = ~₦84.07 trillion

The NGX Market Cap: ~₦160.60 trillion (as at 6/9/2026)

The Resulting Percentage: ~84.07T / 160.60T ≈ 52%

Again, you can't add 65trn to the numerator without also adding it to the denominator. That's elementary maths.

GeneralDae:
This is not even so much of a problem. Samsung controls the SK market even more so.
In Africa, MTN Ghana has same control over the Ghanaian market same with Safaricom (Mpesa) in the Kenyan market.

You're right, although the impact will still be felt.



Have you wondered why despite the red red people have been saying, the market is still about 56% up, one would then think that if the market only dipped from a high of 62% ytd gains to 56%, that's only a slight correction na.

But to most people, it doesn't at all feel like a slight correction. That's cos the correction is indeed more steep than just 6 percentage points, but AIRTEL's surge masked how deep the correction is.


If aritel had stayed at its price level when we hit the year high of 252k, the ytd gains would have now been around 45% by now, making the actual correction of 17% more visible.

Now unlike Airtel which requires N630m to move price, this one only requires less than N100m for as long as it trades below 1k. So It's even more likely to distort.

Also, Airtel which currently holds 15% is both illiquid in terms of supply and requires huge cash for block trades to cause price movements.

This one will hold a more significant 30%, requires much smaller N50 -70m and has many more billions of free float.

For context, someone can be selling off 4m units of this stock every session for a whole year and still not finish selling 0.8% of the available supply.

ghm:
My own concern about the Dangote Refinery listing on NGX

Assuming full subscription at the IPO price (ignoring any price appreciation or depreciation), Dangote Refinery will account for approximately 40% of the entire NGX market capitalisation. when it is finally listed.

A 40% weighting transforms the NGX from a diversified exchange into what is effectively a "Dangote Refinery Exchange." This creates an unprecedented situation where the performance of a single company defines the financial health of the nation's entire stock market.

That level of concentration is extremely vulnerable – and risky for every investor.

What are your thoughts on this and what do you suggest we should do as investors in preparation for this?

Valid concern, but It'll list at just about 30% give or take, not 40.

Current market is N158trn
DPRP is 65trn
Market cap on listing is: N223trn

65 is 29% of 223.

Except market dips more significantly.

Even if market is at 150trn on listing day, DPRP would still be at 30% not 40.

Airtel currently represents 15% btw.