₦airaland Forum

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Streetinvestor2:
So why don't we see reasonable drop in fuel prices when we witness reasonable drop in crude price. And when we has small increase in crude price. The price in fuel goes considerably high
For instance drop in crude like 5 -10 dollars. You go se alhaji reduce 20-30 naira in fuel
When you see 1-2 dollars increase you go 30 naira increase in fuel

is
Yes you're right. That's where those competitors should help us from from Alhaji's (can't find a word).

But perhaps they're preferring to join him like his cement colleagues did.

It's not only crude prices that have dropped compared to the highs of $120, even naira has strengtened by about N50 compared to when crude was at $120.

But as someone shared yesterday, Alhaji is maximizing profit this year. I think what was shared here was $1.8bn from $13bn sales. That's over 14% net margins, which is quite high for the refining business.

So I agree.

mikeapollo:
.

I am not saying what you are saying is not true.
But these are not permissible as rational or reasonable excuses to be given by or in defense of the govt.
The govt. should not be allowing harmful products because it is cheaper!
Doing so (for whatever reason) would be an indictment of the govt. It makes the govt look bad, which I DONT WANT..

No one is praising the government for having slack oversight. I was only responding to @streetinverstor2's question as to why imported fuel could be cheaper despite the added logistics.

If you want to criticize the government, this lack of diligence would be one area to criticize, cos of the health and environmental hazards you mentioned, not to talk of potential expensive engine replacements for cars and machines.

A bigger area of criticism is perhaps insecurity.

That's my own perspective. I do not even have a voter's card, and this is not the only citizenship I hold, so I don't really care much.

mikeapollo:
Why find excuses where no credibleexists?
So Nigeria now allows fuel importers to scout or look for ''sanctioned oil cargoes which trade at discounts'' to import into the country as standard products? Is that a sustainable and reliable way to source for critical products like petroleum? Only smugglers and shylock profiteers would do that, and such should not be allowed by govt. because it indirectly aids international piracy, bunkering, smuggling etc.
And again, it is criminal to import off-spec (dirty-fuel) into the country because of cheap price. Importation of petroleum is regulated and guided by health, environmental, quality and performance compliance requirements.

With the current crisis in the Middle East and price of crude oil globally, it is very unlikely for imported fuel of the right spec and quality to be cheaper than Dangote.

Where were you about 2 or 3 years ago when the entire country was subjected to fuel with excess ethanol? How did such fuel make it to pumps if the regulator had good enough QA?

And you have started delving into another matter, no one is saying fuel of the same standards (50ppm sulphur for instance) would be cheaper if imported.

What we're saying is that the regulator who issues the import license has no laboratory to check what comes in, so off spec products do indeed make it into the pumps, and that's why they're cheaper- cos they're either sanctioned or offpsec or both.

Streetinvestor2:
So why is it cheaper after all the logistics it carries. It means Dangote is exploiting us with price

And this fraudulent government is still importing fuel for whose consumption. Is Dangote refinery and other modular refineries not meeting nigeria daily consumption even as alhaji is operating at fuel capacity.
I thought they claimed importation had ended at a time

You do realize there are sanctioned oil cargoes which trade at significant discounts. There are also cheaper off-spec (dirty fuels). When those get imported, they'll naturally be cheaper.

I don't think the government claims any ban on importation, that would be too risky for prices given the monopoly in that space. What they celebrate is that the country is a net exporter, and even that is a metric that might change with trade balances per time.

And @mikeapollo, your logic of importantion implying subsidies is flawed.

It's not importation that spells subsidies, it's pump prices. There's currently importation without subsidies cos we're still buying at prices close to what's seen on benchmarks like Platt.

On the other hand the government could work on an arrangement with DR that would peg prices at #500 , that's when there would be subsidies and likely no importation.

So, subsidies are about prices not product source.

How you make correlations isn't quite clear atimes.

mikeapollo:
Don't jump the gun!
The original discuss/topic was about Uber leaving Nigeria. It was said that Uber is leaving Nigeria due to harsh economic environment.
Then, Moniepoint leaving the UK was introduced into the discussion, to suggest that Uber leaving Nigeria was not due to bad macro-economic factors.

Hence, my advice that UK economy is generally bad now, so it is not a good example, whether companies are leaving the UK or not.

What gun?

Someone said Moniepoint left the UK not because of bad economy?

Then you made a flawed argument that UK's economy has been bad before Moniepoint went in, therefore by your own reasoning, the economy which had been bad before they went in was what caused their failure

Come on!

mikeapollo:
When an economy is doing badly with each passing year, it has cascading, cumulating effect which makes things more difficult as years go by.
Similar when an economy is improving, it produces effects that make things better as years go by.

The UK has been in bad shape for sometime now.
Whether Moniepoint exited UK because of poor business model or not, it does not erase the fact that a bad or worsening economy would make things more difficult for even companies with hitherto ''good'' business models. That was the point of reference in Uber leaving Nigeria

Nobody says a bad economy is desirable for businesses.

I was just pointing out that it didn't follow for you to discount the brother's argument in the manner you did sir.

mikeapollo:
Your reference to the UK economy actually ''spoilt'' your argument.
The UK economy has been ''failing'' and doing badly for almost a decade now, probably due to the effects of Brexit and other factors

How? did? his reference spoil it?
So you're saying Moniepoint went into UK before brexit?

Or the UK economy was booming when Moniepoint went in

Since you yourself mentioned the bad trajectory has been on for nearly a decade which is way before Moniepoint went in, you're the one who countered yourself.


The bad trajectory of UK's ecomony was a constant before and after they went in, so It's only logical for you to agree with the man that their failure in that market isn't correlated with the performance of the economy.

ositadima1:
It is not theory but the koko; it all boils down to probability.

Assuming you stake ₦100 to make ₦50 (that is, if you win, they pay you your original ₦100 plus an additional ₦50) the decimal odds are calculated like this:

1 + 50/100 = 1.5

To convert that to implied probability:

1/1.5 = 66.67%

So your estimated probability has to be higher than this to have positive expectancy.

Let's assume that, based on your expert knowledge, you estimate an 80% probability that the event will happen. Then you have positive expectancy.

If we translate it into practical terms, 80% of the time you will win ₦50, while 20% of the time you will lose ₦100. So your expected value is:

0.8*50 - 0.2*100 = ₦20

You would therefore expect to make ₦20 on average every time you place this bet over a large number of bets.

The other part is sizing your bets so that you can survive multiple losses in a row. An 80% probability of winning also means that you can still lose 4 or 5 times in a row, or even more. So you size your stake appropriately so that when those sequences of losses occur, you won't be wiped out.

I'm not going to dive deep into how to do that; Google is your friend.

The hard part is being able to estimate a probability that is close enough to reality or better than the implied probability in the bet. Most of the rest is just math.

You just added more length to your theories.

Go on Polymarket or Signal, open a portfolio and stay consistently profitable for 6 months, then any experience you share would be worth a read.

For now, anyone interested in theories can just use free chat with Gemini.

ositadima1:
In a way, it is.

Actually, it is both hard and yet relies on two principles: expected value and bet sizing.

Expected value is important because you have to think probabilistically, not in terms of certainty. You should gauge the probability of an event happening against the implied probability, which is based on the returns they are offering. If your estimated probability is higher than the implied probability, then you have positive expectancy.

The other principle is sizing your bets. This depends on the size of the bankroll you have designated for betting and the expected value of the bet. There are many ways to calculate this; the Kelly criterion is one of them.

Finally, it is hard because accurately gauging the actual probability of an event happening is not easy, unless you are an expert in that particular field.

Have you had good practice with it though? Like real consistent experience?

These theories aren't the issue.

The core issue is that you can be right 10 times making modest 10-30% upsides, but one wrong bet costs you 100%, if you size modestly, all it means is that you still have some funds left, if you redploy and miss again then sooner or later you're bound to get completely wiped, except of course you're able to build strong safeguards and workarounds


The risk/reward imbalance is the core issue.

Anyways like I said, some people are probably better at it, cos it would be foolish and prideful of me to assume that just cos I couldn't do it then no one else can.

That was my grouse with some people here about trading. Them who felt cos they couldn't do trade successfully, then I couldn't. Funny people 😁.

Mpeace:
Here we go. Another oil money. Who knows this company

$1trn in market cap is our immediate target 😁
$1bn daily volume.

Great way to end August.

Index gained over 1%, first time in a long time.

Monthly dip moderated to just under 0.4%
Index just above 244k.

Personally I traded above N25m for the session.

Highest in many weeks.

This will be sustained through September, God willing.

Streetinvestor2:
So u believe his outdated tool worked this time.Dont worry u will see what will happen when awesomeJ begin off load this week..lol

Amen ooo.
In 5 years' time, this will be true.

Agbalowomeri:
ACCESS closing the month nicely is a good sign, as previously analysed a week ago

This should be the highest monthly close on record

Only for long-term considerations

Apollo and Nosa don hammar
EDUARDO has sold

Now that you tried being bullish, see how you hit the bull's eye 😁😁

So so bear bear Everytime.

SonofElElyonRet:
Betting is bad for your health

💯💯💯😁😁

Agbalowomeri:
Do you now own a betting company?

No, I merely tried my hands in prediction markets since the promoters claim it's a subset of the financial markets 😁

‎Good morning guys, for those who might have picked interest in my mention of prediction market, here's my update:
‎
‎
‎I grew my 10k to about 27k within 9 days.
‎
‎So I decided to scale up by adding 60k over a few days, making my capital input 70k.
‎
‎Now both my 70k and all the gains I made are completely wiped off.
‎
‎The reality is: any position where being wrong costs you 100% is simply too risky. No matter how good you try to be, just a few wrong calls will be enough to wipe you out.
‎
‎That's my reality. Other people might be better at it, but for most people, 100% in cost of being wrong is the fastest way to guaranteed failure.
‎
‎I learnt the soft way, cos I only put an infinitiseminal amount 😁


However those who want to bet on January's election outcomes should still go there and put their money where their mouth is.

There's already about N138m of open positions on who wins. 😎

Streetinvestor2:
230k won't be broken. The big guys who could make it happen can't do more than 10% down again officially
We will see slight rebound of bull by October and stronger one from November. The AsI will still hit 250k and above this yr.If alhaji happens we should be looking at 300k
AS an investor I will do nothing. For traders na small small swing u guys go dey see

Head or tail next yr will be very good for ngx
If obi happens,it won't be bull that will happen. Na madness go happen for ngx..lol

💯💯

Streetinvestor2:
This does not hold water.If it is how you see it.Then you didn't need that luxury u purchased. You should have used the fund to take up the responsibility of government within your neighbourhood. The government collects 10% WHT from my dividend while they add no value to my life and fmly

What do you see as a support for the ASI by the end of this quarter?

Especially if Alhaji proceeds with his IPO?

220k? 230? 200?

Would you advise one sells down now and possibly renter cheaper (have more units) or is it better to just do nothing?

What if MPC surprises us with a 200bps cut next month and translate same trimming to fixed income yields, do you think people will start finding potential dividends yields for FY '26 more attractive at current prices?

As per this exact post I quoted, I will respond to it any other day we talk go there. For now I think I've reached the threshold of thread derailment, so let's talk market more.

Streetinvestor2:
I didn't say big companies. The catalyst for any economy is the small and medium companies and businesses. The generate thr own power and rely on fuel. The big companies are on different level.And this small and medium companies and businesses is what we have all over nigeria.
The figures coming out from present cbn is not all I swallow. We know this government has scores to settle with last cbn guy for his political moves to frustrate bat before 2023 elections Though he was not a Saint too because of excessive gread. It is when a new government enter and have a different cbn some truth will equally come out about this government spending. For now it is on public knowledge this government has been spending outside the budget approved by the legislature too.Have you wondered whr the fund is equally coming from.The present minister of finance has been lying like kilometres with numbers who handles fiscal policy. Why should I believe everything from the guy handling monetary policy. This is because they are working for same person who is after praise singing on his mandate all should quench

Ohh.. I understand your point about small businesses generating their own power now.

It's exactly right.


The political angle about shadiness and possible falsehoods in the government, I can't confirm nor disprove.


Since we agree on each other's points now, I'd say we call it a wrap so it doesn't constitute a derailment to the thread.

crownprince2017:
AwesomeJ you just you just gave a text book interpretation of my post earlier on.

Thank you.

No matter who you are, your haters will always be pointing at things you are yet to do well and turn a blind eyes to the ones u got right.


E be like say agba tools don they work again ooo, access don dey obey his T.A call oooo.

I'm glad we share thesame perspective 😁

megawealth01:
You dey use style throw stones at me ba? 😂

Yes sir 😁

megawealth01:
Has the living condition of the masses changed positively?

Sure, meanwhile like i've previously said, those of us who have been on the other side of these same reforms i.e made massive loots from the stock market should try helping the masses too so that this doesn't become mere hypocrisy.

With just N30m anyone can do a 60kva solar installation, tgat will be enough to solve power problems for 50 people.

But some people are sitting idly on 100x that amount and complaining about the masses.


It's just more effective to do something to alleviate their situation, especially if thesame reforms that hurt them have given some of us billions.

If the market maker was spending reserves to defend the share price for years, then a new MD comes in and says, we'll use our reserves for more meaningful purposes, let the shares trade freely, and let's gradually buy back some of our OS.

The stock price falls, then you start blaming the new MD as being responsible, forgetting that it was someone else that foolishly diluted the OS without growing the balance sheet.

Streetinvestor2:
Do you know when many feel the problem of subsidy corruption really happened because of smuggling to neighbouring countries. It is a big lie because I have friends who benefited from it.
The real corruption happened in the importation process. The big fraud was the claim of importing nothing and sending bills to government for it
The smuggling across the boarders was small play.
In otherworld subsidy can now be managed properly and relatively efficient since everything will happen within local refineries. AS no one can just send bill of importation that didn't happen. This was whr the largest corruption and stealing happened. In the previous subsidy process, fake importation bills choke.The smuggling aspect is small problem to handle. As this tankers don't fly in the night. They use known roads and not something u can concel in a bag if willing government want to stop it.it is very easy
When custom seize like 10 and burn it openly.Nobody go wan put his tanker for such risky business when u look at the cost to buy a fuel tanker,you go reason the matter

I agree with you on this.

On the other posts though, your points aren't as sound. You said big companies generate their own power, but they do use diesel or natural gas which have long be deregulated, so what you're saying there I don't get. Your public transport point though is taken, and the govt should make good on their cheap mass transit promises.


I never said the currency was pegged, so no agreement there.


When a country had 40trn in entire money supply but printed extra 30trn cos they were spending money they didn't have, you and I know that was the root cause of the 2x value loss of the currency.

Abi from this our stock market business, what happens to a company's eps, if it had 40bn OS and created additional 30bn shares and allotted it all to insiders without collecting any cash, their balance sheet would at best stay stagnant while eps would crash by half, then the market if rational would reprice the stock at half the previous price, same exact thing with currencies.

If they had continued printing, the currency would simply have continued sliding, That's how we got the worthless Zimbabwean trillion dollars.

megawealth01:
Has the living condition of the masses changed positively?

i understand your point. The answer to your question is No.

However the question in itselft isn't fair.

A fair question is: Given the place the economy had been put before 2023, has the actions and policies of this govt made things better for the masses than they would have inevitably been? The answer to that is "Yes"

Streetinvestor2:
Well u are entitled to your opinion. And just like I have my own as I disagree with the figures portrayed all over your post.I don't remember any one saying they want fuel 3 or 5 times cheaper. You picked those numbers to push your position
Why should our consumption rocket from 42 million to 100 million because I've now have subsidy. So the consumption is even as low as 32 million liters. So you believe it is rocket science and impossible to stop smuggling of fuel to neighbouring countries by willing government. If you believe as nation we cannot police our boarders then we have no government. The dollar going to 1900 and down to 1300 is nothing special. It was same government theat made it get to that 1900
And now systematically doing manage floating at above 1300.So another government can still do same manage floating at even 1000 or less to make life affordable for Nigerians
The only constant thing in all this is bat government has made life most difficult for majority of Nigerians .And the inflation figures are lies after changing methodology in the name of rebasing of the economy.
And why won't reserve grow naturally when crude prices has been above 65 dollars benchmark in our budget for reasonable time

let me see a few points I can address from your post:
1. Crude prices were around $100 for the most part of GEJ's tenure until US shale in 2014 crashed the market. How come reserves still got depleted druring his time?, now you want to make light the achievement of growing net reserves by 700% just caus crude was over $65? that opinion is bias

2. It was not the government that took it to 1900, it was headed there and far beyond anyways, it's a natural consequence of having no reserves. the currency wouldn't be worth the paper it's printed on. Zimbabwe has a currency note of $1,000,000,000,000 that couldn't buy a loaf of bread.

3. If the economy improves to a point where 1000 to the dollar is sustainable then the rates will naturally move there, in the meantime, stabilising at 1300 is achievement enough.

4. securing the vast borders is not about cheap talk, it requires manpower that's either unavailable or already far stretched. If you can buy a N100m car, you should be able to fuel it, don't expect your lavish consumption to be subsidized, the common man doesn't consume anywhere near the big man. plus diesel that affects cost of transporting goods has always been deregulated for decades now.

5. If fuel in already cheaper in Nigeria than in neighboring countries, asking for any meaningful subsidy is exactly asking for it to be 3 to 5x cheaper.

6. I do not dismiss the fact the people are going through a lot, what we're saying is previous administrations only kicked the can down the road, and they were more responsible for the root causes. there was no reason our reserves shouldn't have exceeded $100bn under GEJ.

mikeapollo:
This is the time to find a way to adjust the price of fuel.
It is crominal foolishand insensitive sell crude to Dangote using the international price and exchange rate in naira.
The nation should rather sell the crude to DR at a national-determined price and also agree to a price that DR would sell to the public. Dangote can supply the whole country successfully without any queues
The peices can be reviewed every 3 months or 6 months etc

How much is PMS in Niger, and Cameroon and Benin republic?

July figures put our consumption at just over 32m litres daily do you think it would be possible to keep that figure below 100m litres if fuel became 3 to 5x cheaper in Nigeria, wouldn't the massive reward make the risk of smuggling worthwhile for a lot of people?


Now at just 32m litres, we're able to still sell more crude in USD and grow reserves to almost $53bn now, if we had to be supplying a 100m litre daily consumption, wouldn't all our crude production be given to dangote with zero Fx inflows from crude?

Then what do you think would happen to the exchange rate if reserves were today at $17bn?

how would the masses cope with N4700 exchange rate to the dollar or 190k for a bag of rice?


Nobody seems to be mentioning the fact that food is now even cheaper in some cases that Buhari's time, and in most other cases, it's less than 50% more expensive.

since OBJ took reserves to $60Bn largely possible due to debt waivers, no other goverment has been able to grow the reserves beyond what they met in office, these folks have grown it to 200% of what they met. Net reserves growth is even closer to 500%.


people like to think these do not matter to the masses, but while small income is terrible, what's much worse is for the income to not be worth much!! Again i'll give Buhari's trajectory for the currency:

2020: 360
2021: 450 (1.25x)
2022: 600 (1.33x)
2023: 750 (1.25x)

then let's extrapolate using a conservative 1.25x
2024: 940
2025: 1200
2026: 1500
2027: 1900

it was a choice between slow, gradual and pertual loss and a steep one-off loss, the latter is much better.
2026 rate is already lower than it would have been, 2027 will even be much lower.


The problem is they even had to deplete over $30bn in reserves to keep the depreciation as low as 25 -33%. At the point they were in 2023, the reserves had been drained to just $3bn, there was no more firepower, and so the 25% depreciation projection might have in reality been anyhwere from 50% to 500%, cos they had simply run out of dollars.

Zimbabwe, Venzuela, Argentina, and Iran are examples of countries where currency crisis has happened so it's not just theories.

Helping the people maintain their purchasing power is an achievement this government has made and it's one that over 99% of the populace benefits from. It's the reason the common man doesn't need 200k for a bag of rice, or N200m for a car.


This might sound strange especially given the sharp depreciation between 2023 and 2024. No one denies that everyone lost purchasing power significantly in that one year period, what we're saying is if the buhari trajectory had been maintained the loss in purchasing power by now would have been much worse!!!!, so in that regard everyone in the entire country is better off. And now between 2024 to date, everyone has gained more purchasing power, imagine if the 1900 exchange rate of February 2024 was the reality today, almost everything would be 50% more expensive, not to mention that it was heading for 5k.

I believe we're all informed enough to understand this analysis, subjective bias is the problem.

Streetinvestor2:
I know that.I know we are never going for same candidates from past post here
I only picked interest because I said I will not invest new cash into ngx till after this government is kicked out and mad bull will show after that is done next yr
So when I saw you February timing I decided to pull your legs thr as election out come would have been decided
Though I was surprised u went against apc in osun in your bet..lol

Nice 😁😁

vacanci:
guy you are so real.

I like your kind

Thank you ✊

Streetinvestor2:
U are in the spirit as our new Nigeria will be possible

They spent over 100 billion alone for osun. You can imagine what baron and his 31 thieves will be spending in 2027 election as apc looters

I don't think we're calling thesame outcome foe the election though, so maybe your election spirit isn't same as mine.