₦airaland Forum

ositadima1:


You don buy the car?

You weren't following the chat?

We won the league.

Thank you to all our well wishers here.

It finally happened 👑👑🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉

Streetinvestor2:
So you feel I talk about this government because I am election loser.And is you who is helping people around u and people like me don't. I don't have your time for stupid thoughts. I should come here and be advertising how I am helping people like you do for cheap validation. I don't operate like that because praise on the act adds no value to me.It is strictly an act btw me and God for humanity
If you see it as big thing now.It Haa been a way of life for some since thr humble beginning and not because they have made money in so called bull run which when calculated rights based on other things is equally not true. So giving is part of some people life before this failed government came

The core points are:
You're already giving, that's great.
Your giving is more potent than your complaints .
Your thinking of the incumbent losing the election defies maths.

I don't exactly have your time either.
Your opinion are immaterial as far as I'm concerned.

Maybe something like this will come up with the elections, then you can bet against the incumbent.

It would be a quick way to give back your loot 😁😁

mikeapollo:
So he is even an Arsenal fan? No wonder! I heard that is Tinubu's club too!
I no wan talk the thing for my mind so I don't offend the people from Emirates. ''E ti mi'' already

It's already happening 🎉🎉🎉🎉

We will party tonight.

mikeapollo:
Let us start by testing the experiment from your end. I know your chest is very big and strong! It can protect at least 2 people from AK47 bullets! There is nothing impossible. Let's go to Kwara and Kogi and check something!

Sure why not, once you're able to demonstrate the ability you have and I see it's as potent at ending insecurity as your billions are at ending hunger and starvation, I will gladly join you to deploy.

mikeapollo:
This guy, you wan hear story!
Do you know I turned to church rat hiding and running away from several banks when my margin loans went bad after the stock market crashed in 2008-2010 and I was owing them several millions that later grew to into huge debts on my head? Do you even know some people committed suicide that time?
You think everything has been rosy and smooth in the stock market for someone like me? So if at all at all I get something little now, you expect me to just go give some percentage to just anybody because Tinubu has implemented economic policies that impoverished the citizens, while the govt keeps spending carelessly and has no plans for me and my family?

Let's focus more on making the govt use the huge resources at their disposal to take care of the people. That is the difference between us and the developed world.

You're right.

I didn't participate in the 08 crash.
I was still battling Laplace and Fourier in college. Too bad they ended up not being relevant in real life 😁

But stilk, the best use of something like money is really to make impact.

Cos how much food can one eat, you can't drive two cars at once etc.

So even if it's 1%.

But obviously you're more experienced than I am, so I believe you know this already. You're either practicing it already or you have a great reason why you aren't.

Let me go see if our 22 year wait for a trophy will finally end tonight.

ololufemi:
Awesome Baba, interesting words but it speaks volume of what currently holds and what could have been.if events took a different turn.

Looking back, GEJ would probably take the blame as a cowardly President which Nigeria did not need at that time when there was some level of resources to support the removal of foreign exchange and petrol subsidy policies which would have had significant impact as at today. His plan to redirect the resources saved from those removal to a Sure-P system similar to the Petroleum Trust Fund would have removed the Governors and Local Government Chairmen from the wanton thieving and looting we see today.

If he had also succumbed to the wishes of his party members from the Northern extraction to not contest the 2015 election so that his tenure would not exceed 8 years as well as compensate the North for the loss of Yardua, Buhari would never have become President and never have the opportunity to deal with Nigerians through his absent minded and nonchalant rule.

One other thing GEJ failed to do when he became President was reverse the cancellation of the sale of the Warri and Port Harcourt refineries and return it to the BlueStar Group owned by Dangote and Otedola. I am not sure Nigeria will be in the mess it currently is today but the hawks and gluttonous cabal around him no allow am see the future.

Though the followership is a problem in this country, the calibre of leadership for an entity like Nigeria has been abysmally disappointing and baseless without any iota of forward thinking, mind blowing vision for the country.

🤷🏽‍♂️

I agree with you 100000%
This whole problem started with shale oil in the US.

1999 to 2013 was mostly stable.

Obansanjo did well in my opinion, clearing debt and building reserves, and improvement in living standards was palpable, at least in my own small corner of the country.
I think it was Obansanjo too that started exceeds crude account.

If GEJ had matched OBJ's economic achievements we wouldn't have things as bad

As also, you're right about him stepping down in 2015, the political outcomes might have been better.

So again 💯💯💯

mikeapollo:
I am restraining myself, but your line of argument is totally warped!

How do you know I made gains in this stock market? And if I did, how do you know the gains were largely catalyzed by this govt? A govt that devalued and destroyed the worth of my savings and investments by more than 50% in less than a year in office?. Was it this govt that catalyzed the gains I made in 2004-2005? Sometimes you people think and talk as if Nigeria only started in 2023? So pathetic!

You said I should try and use my NGX gains to solve part of the problem, and you have issues with me for supposedly sitting idly and doing nothing. So you are not happy that an ordinary citizen like me, who does not work for or receive any salary or allowances from govt.
You rather want me to use my hard-earned, private money to solve economic problems created and perpetrated by the clueless and incompetent govt that you support and cheer! INCREDIBLE!

So extending that your warped argument, if I complain about insecurity in the nation, you would say I should do something to resolve the problem and probably pick up my cutlass, club, arrow (I don't have a gun) and head to Kwara, Kogi or Zamfara to fight AK-47 bearing terrorists and help quench the fire!.
Even if I say that the road to your town or village is bad, you would tell me to use the money I made in NGX to go and hire Julius Berger to fix it to make it better?. If I say there is no electricity in your state or town, you would say I should be my brother's keeper and use some of the gains I made in NGX to go buy transformer and install for them?. If I say they have no potable water, you would say that is my responsibility because you think I made money in the NGX because of some vaunted policies of this govt. that came to power three years ago?
Is this your logic? INCREBIBLE?
God Have Mercy!
There is what is called Responsibility and Resource Allocation in governance. The resources to resolve these problems have been channeled or given to the govt so they are the ones to be pushed, encouraged or even compelled to do so. Other would-be contributors cannot be blamed!

I missed the part about insecurity while I responded earlier.

This is my take on that part:

Yes exactly. If the same policies that brought about insecurity have given you some great abilities to defend 10 people or a community, sure, I would expect you to use those resources to defend and secure the people instead of complaining while keeping idle resources that could end the insecurity.

mikeapollo:
I am restraining myself, but your line of argument is totally warped!

How do you know I made gains in this stock market? And if I did, how do you know the gains were largely catalyzed by this govt? A govt that devalued and destroyed the worth of my savings and investments by more than 50% in less than a year in office?. Was it this govt that catalyzed the gains I made in 2004-2005? Sometimes you people think and talk as if Nigeria only started in 2023? So pathetic!

You said I should try and use my NGX gains to solve part of the problem, and you have issues with me for supposedly sitting idly and doing nothing. So you are not happy that an ordinary citizen like me, who does not work for or receive any salary or allowances from govt.
You rather want me to use my hard-earned, private money to solve economic problems created and perpetrated by the clueless and incompetent govt that you support and cheer! INCREDIBLE!

So extending that your warped argument, if I complain about insecurity in the nation, you would say I should do something to resolve the problem and probably pick up my cutlass, club, arrow (I don't have a gun) and head to Kwara, Kogi or Zamfara to fight AK-47 bearing terrorists and help quench the fire!.
Even if I say that the road to your town or village is bad, you would tell me to use the money I made in NGX to go and hire Julius Berger to fix it to make it better?. If I say there is no electricity in your state or town, you would say I should be my brother's keeper and use some of the gains I made in NGX to go buy transformer and install for them?. If I say they have no potable water, you would say that is my responsibility because you think I made money in the NGX because of some vaunted policies of this govt. that came to power three years ago?
Is this your logic? INCREBIBLE?
God Have Mercy!
There is what is called Responsibility and Resource Allocation in governance. The resources to resolve these problems have been channeled or given to the govt so they are the ones to be pushed, encouraged or even compelled to do so. Other would-be contributors cannot be blamed!

I'm not referring to the gains you made in 2004.

And we're not saying Nigeria started in 2023.

But the government you're criticizing started in 2023, so..

Yes, I'm sure if you have been in this market since the government came in, you definitely made gains. You don't have to be a genius, you just need to have held some stocks.

If you didn't, please educate my assumption.

I'm not saying that you should use ALL your hard earned money to help, I'm saying use a portion. Whether 1% or 30%, whatever you're comfortable with, that little portion would have more impact than your complaints, then my grouse is that you shouldn't be complaining since these loots weren't really all that hard earned, they were partly gotten as a result of theseame policies you criticize, so it only makes sense to use part of it to address the downsides of the same policies.

Resources have been channeled to the government and their agencies, true, but some resources have also been channeled to your own portfolio, if you aren't using them to touch lives, then your talk about government not using theirs is redundant and hypocritical.

That's my view, it doesn't have to mean much to you.

ositadima1:
But are you counting Dangote’s achievement as this government’s achievement? Fuel stability is because we now have a refinery, which the government tried to squash and failed. It’s the same way some people attribute GSM to Obasanjo, when GSM was new and already making its way into almost every country at the time.

Were you not here when several government agencies were tackling the Dangote refinery? The fight with NNPC, the fake claims that government refineries had reopened, the fake claims about low-quality petrol, and then you come here attributing fuel availability to this government.

I think you all deserve whatever you get, good or bad.

You're misrepresenting the facts.

True, A significant portion of our stability has come through Alhaji's efforts.

But when you now make it seem like the sabotage Alhaji experienced was from the government, you're very wrong.


Refineries false claims as well as low crude supply to dangote refinery we're done by Mele Kyari who was a Buhari appointee. You make it sound like after Mele did all those, this government gave him promotion, the reality is that he was fired.

Same with Farouk and his shenanigans at NMDPRA, he too was a buhari appointee, all it took to remove him from office was a press conference Alhaji held.

No person analyzing these situations with an open mind would say Alhaji has gotten anything other than good support from the government.


How about the fact that the government allowed Alhaji to be single handedly dictating pms prices whenever they want? That used to be done by Presidents back in the day.

mikeapollo:
There are several mishaps in what you typed.
But the bolded alone tells a lot about how things are.
Making definite, categorical, derogatory, hate-filled comments about a bonafide citizen, a person that you do not, and may never know or even meet in life? If you could be this hate-filled, toxic and low for free against a citizen who has not embezzled public funds, I wonder what would be if a few notes is thrown at you to go attack critics of the govt?

I don't attack anyone who says good things about the govt. It is their right.
I only state my own reasons why I think the govt is doing badly! Then people attack! Very funny!
But I think know and understand now!

Which dictionary are you using to get the meaning of "hate"?

You're obviously confusing the meaning of truth for hate.

To be clear, there's no iota of hate in what you highlighted, it's just a simple truth.


I'm just a practical person.

I prefer acting rather than making talks that have no impact

The reality is that you and I have made gains from this market, and those gains have been largely catalyzed by the same government policies that you prefer to criticize daily.


If you hate those policies so much, how do you with a good conscience prefer to keep the significant sums you've profited from them.

Especially when even half the loot would do way more to help the masses you pretend to care about, the loot you keep idly in your brokerage account would do much more to help their situations than your complaints ever could.


If these complaints were coming from those who didn't benefit from the same policies, they would be more substantiated.

Or if they were coming after you've distributed your loot, they would be taken with more regard.

ayobama1:
Privatisation of profits and socialisation of complaints.

You can imagine.

By the way, the talk of devaluation is now STALE!!!
IT was only an issue in 2024!
Now it's no longer a valid issue to raise, as we can see from company's results.

Here's how the currency moved in the parallel market from COVID to 2023.

2020: 360
2021: 450 (usd gained 25%)
2022: 600 (usd gained 33%)
2023: 750 (usd gained 25%)


So using the same 25% expected annual loss rate.

Dollar in 2024 should have been: 937.5
2025: 1171
2026: 1464

So as of now, the currency is stronger than it would have been if the old terrible policy had been kept, and it's much more accessible too.


For fuel subsidies.

Electricity subsidies as currently enjoyed by low income people is more important than any unnecessary fuel subsidies


It makes no sense for anyone to buy fleet of V6 and V8 vehicles and expect to buy fuel at #200.

The average joe doesn't even drive an I4.

so their exposure to fuel prices is mostly often overstated.

On most routes, transport costs have only increased by 3x over the past 3 years, even though pms prices are now 7x costlier.

The V8 guys are definitely paying the full 7x, but the exposure on the masses isn't more than 3x.

mikeapollo:
And the incidence of poverty has increased many folds! That is success to you?. The elitist definition of success?.
While more several millions of citizens have been pushed into harsher poverty, you console yourself with things like stock market activity, forgetting that only a minority few locals and some foreign investors play in the market.

I think it'll be more potent for some of you who have made loots via these policies to alleviate for 10, 100, or even 1000 individuals in your vicinity.

That'll be way more potent than endless criticism of the policies or unrealistic expectation of an election loss.

If you or @streetinvestor2 each have gained N2bn due largely to these policies you both criticize, the ideal non hypocritical thing to do would be to take out those profits and structure intervention funds for maybe 100 people.

Give N20m each to 100 people around you.
After all money is just number and is inherently useless.

Some of those 100 people would better their lives and those of people close to them with the money.

But no, you prefer to sit idly on the loot, probably doing nothing to better the lives of people around you, and you expect me to believe you're better than the people you criticize??


I'm no fan of any politician, I've never voted, but people close to me, outside my family get a little bit of my small loot from time to time, making the hardship easier on them

There's no need for me to overemphasize the hardship while refusing to do anything about it, even though the same policies have afforded me the means to intervene.

You keep saying only a small percentage are in the market, if those small percentage showed love, the impact would be farther reaching.

jckgroup1:
UBA made your list for short term gain?

short-term is relative.
5 years is still short term to some people.
5 hours is more like it for me

Rubyjade:
You are making an incredibly sharp, grounded point here. Looking at a Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 71 through that lens really exposes the absurdity of market hype. To say, "Even in a magical world where we have zero expenses, no taxes, and workers labor for free, it would still take nearly three quarters of a century just to break even" is a fantastic, sobering reality check.

Comparing that to Dangote Cement at 4.5 years perfectly highlights the difference between paying for actual, tangible substance versus buying into pure, unadulterated optimism.

However, to play devil's advocate and look at why the market priced "Zichis" (or companies like it) that way before the fall, we have to look at the counter-argument. If we were to humanize the perspective of the investors who bought in at a 71 P/S ratio, their justification usually boils down to one word: scalability.


1. The "S-Curve" Growth Bet
Investors buying at a 71 P/S ratio aren't assuming the current revenue figure will stay the same for 71 years. They are banking on exponential, explosive growth.

*The Math They Are Visualizing: If a company is growing its revenue by 100% year-over-year, that 71x multiple shrinks drastically in just a few years.
*The Reality Shift: If sales double every year, that 71-year payback period based on current revenue suddenly becomes a ~6-year payback period based on FUTURE revenue. Investors are buying the future, not the present.

2. Software vs. Brick-and-Mortar (The Margin Play)
Comparing Zichis to Dangote Cement is a classic tech-versus-traditional-industry matchup.

*Dangote Cement: To sell more cement, Dangote has to build more factories, buy more limestone, hire more truck drivers, and ship heavy physical goods. Their variable costs are high. A P/S of 4.5 is healthy because their net profit margins have a natural ceiling.
*Tech/Software (Zichis): Once a piece of software or a digital platform is built, the cost to sell it to the 2nd user or the 2,000,000th user is practically zero. This means that while revenue is small today, tomorrow's revenue could carry a 80% or 90% profit margin. Investors tolerate a massive P/S ratio early on because they expect the eventual Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio to collapse into something highly profitable once the company matures.

3. Market Dominance and "Winner-Take-All"
In modern markets, tech companies often operate in ecosystems where the winner takes the entire market (think Google in search, or Amazon in e-commerce).

Investors backing a company at a 71 P/S ratio are often thinking: "If this company becomes the undisputed infrastructure for its industry, it will have pricing power. They can raise prices later, eliminate competitors, and turn on a massive money printing press." They view the high price today as a premium ticket to get into a monopoly tomorrow.


The argument isn't entirely crazy in theory—it’s how companies like Amazon or Nvidia justified seemingly insane valuations for years before delivering massive profits.

But your critique highlights the ultimate risk: perfection must be priced in. When a company is trading at a P/S of 71, absolutely nothing can go wrong. The moment growth slows down even a little bit, or macroeconomic conditions change, the illusion shatters, and the stock crashes back to earth—which sounds exactly like what happened to Zichis.

Does the company have a realistic path to that kind of exponential growth, or was the market just high on pure speculation?

You should tag your AI slops accordingly.
Better to put the labels at the start of the post.

KarlTom:
Starts 29th naa

Date's been updated.

KarlTom:
T + 1 settlement starts May 29, 2026

June 1st.

KarlTom:
I queried ChatGPT

QUERY:
If 10billion shares are listed at an exchange rate of 1400NG₦/US$, what is the estimated listing price per share?

RESPONSE:
If the valuation is:

$50 billion and 10% is being listed, then the IPO size is about $5 billion.

Now assuming:

10 billion shares are offered at an exchange rate of ₦1,400/$

Then:

# Step 1 - Convert IPO size to naira

$5billion * 1,400 = ₦7trillion

# Step 2 - Divide by number of shares

₦7trillion / 10 billion shares = ₦700 per share

📌 Estimated Listing Price

≈ ₦700/share

That would immediately make Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals one of the most valuable listed companies in Africa by market capitalization.

The AI hallucinates.

14bn OS at N5000 per share is more like it.


At N700 per share, the OS would have to be as high as 100bn which makes no sense.

But AI is just statistical gibberish that feigns coherence.

yMcy56:
I know you'll all be filling out one by one to defend him......but do know this that none of you can silence me....
No be today nah...
He knows very well what I'm talking about...

Emotional.....so be it!

He's an investor and we can't all sleep and face one side.....
Traders will always do their things either you like it or not.

Make una continue whining and bringing up defence.

When he's marketing a stock, thats the best thing that can happen in NGX but when the stock is not his type, he starts talking them down....

Well, we've seen instances where he was wrong about some stocks, they defied all his calculations and still went ahead to put smiles on people's faces.
He's always wanting to justify that "I told you so".......but Mr.Market no send him on some occasions.

That's exactly my point to you, when you become a master of your craft, no amount of "talking down" would be material.

Thesame Pa Emma used to say things like I was overtrading, I was enriching brokers etc, Now I don't need to convince anyone that I have a sustainable strategy that mints profit every time. Always!! -bull or bear.

If such comments make a difference on your profitability, you just need better trading strategies.

emmanuelewumi:
Na stone you dey throw to a veteran trader on NGX

It's a simple advice.
You open positions with no hedges, no clear exit plans, then you start having generously optimistic interpretations of numbers or looking for insider info, that's all signs of a learner that needs more time to master the profession.

yMcy56:
Oga Emma, you're happy we are losing money?
Issorite o.....
Maybe you should direct your posts to your fellow investors.....
As for traders, we will be fine in the short run.....

I could remember alerting the house when people could not see ZICHIS to buy that, the plan was to start releasing it @15...
When offers were available @17+ I alerted people and they picked ...
I knew personally of someone that got it @8...
I wonder what your advice to those people will be after making over 300% profit.

I've understood your pattern....so I won't be moved as such.

Was ZICHIS the only stock in NGX or the only stock manipulated according to you?
Why were you particular about the stock when it wasn't the only one moving up in the market?
I guess you would have stopped the Bull from running in the market OR you cornered it to only yourself if you have your way sir.

People buying are using their funds to buy, Dem no borrow from you nah....
Highest, sound your warnings and allow people make their choices...
You're now bitter because you weren't part of the party...

Either anyone likes it or not, you can't dictate what the market should or should not do, that's what I blvd.

You need more experience to succeed as a trader.

All the emotions are signs of inexperience.

Just give it time.

The last time you blamed CBN after you picked up junks, now you're blaming someone's comments here.

You just need a few more years to build the needed experience to succeed.

Agbalowomeri:
Even if na the whole 55B outstanding units dem suppose don finish sale by now. I dey suspect AwesomeJ geng Na dem dey buy and sell the same day

😁😁😁😁

I just noticed I had not bought ACCESSCORP since I started using my trading software last July.

I think I have now 50k units bought last week. I will sell at around N32. I used idle cash, so I'm patient.

deathwing:
It was actually about $8bn back then. I remember some banks coming together to pool like $2bn or so then for him (around 2012/2013). Then the costs started to ballon over the years.

You're right. I think GTBank led the syndicate then in late 2013.

$8bn ballonning to $20bn is still better.

CA planned to build a high speed rail to connect LA to San Fransisco. Original estimate of $33bn in 2008 is now over $120bn, and the project is still not complete.

Agbalowomeri:
If na me sef na $300B I go value am
Una go pay for my sleepless nights and my grey hair

Oasisblue:
I agree it seems an overvaluation. Maybe they are factoring the fact that they want to expand the capacity of the refinery to >1million barrels/day?

I will be happy to buy at even $70bn.
$50bn is fair in my opinion.
And yes, like you said, a significant portion of the proceeds will go towards building the train II and making it the largest refinery in the world without needing any other qualifier (like "single train). At 1.4million barrels a day, it just simply becomes the world's largest!

GeneralDae:
$50 Billion?? Isn’t that an overvaluation? Anyway, we wait and see.

The fact that Alhaji spent $20bn to build it doesn't mean anyone will be able to built it for that amount today. $20bn of 2013 is worth significantly more than $20bn of 2026.

Then you value the market share the refinery already has around the globe and other such intangible assets.

Book value should be $30-$40bn

$50bn market value is then just 1.25x - 1.67x which is very fair.

222Martins:
My God!!!! I just logged in now to my MorganCapital account only to find out that all the AccessBank shares i have been buying and averaging down since Monday to Thursday when the market was red have been removed from my portfolio and the money refunded to me. What kind of playing is this? This is no longer a joke!!

They had a glitch from Monday through Wednesday, Some executed trades weren't captured by their system, so I advised they rollback the transactions for those 3 days and just reupload afresh since I wasn't the only person affected.

Perhaps they took my advice or perhaps they thought to do it on their own.

If you check the transaction references for the whole of this week, you would see that they now carry E8, E is May, 8 is 8th (E8 is May 8th just as D7 would be April 7th), and the transaction count were close to 15,000 as opposed to about 3k for a regular single day.

This means all previous entries for the entire week were discarded and the transactions were cleanly re inputed just yesterday.


The numbers are now exact on my end. Since I have my private software for tracking too.

SonofElElyonRet:
Omo, the appreciation is crazy.. from less than N2 listing price

N0.94 listing price given the 1 for 1 they did.

Dupeodus:
Can you fault his analysis?

Access Bank isn't the largest African bank by assets.

The wrong stat isn't necessary to prove that the bank trades at a discount.

But the market doesn't always trade common sense.

GeeKudi:
215.79

258 - 6.25 = 251.75 ---------> you deduct dividend before making provision for the bonus shares
251.75/7 = 35.96
35.96 + 6.25 = 42.21
258 - 42.21 = 215.79

If the bonus is 1 for 7, then the 8 new shares at the new price must be worth exzactly thesame as the 7 shares at the old price.


251.75*7/8 should be 220.28.

The ceiling of 220.3 will be taken due to the 0.10 pricing step.

ogawisdom:
you people need to understand that Q4 is usually the strongest for NAHCO, they usually start slow in Q1, seasonality in business.

But the comparison is Q1 to Q1.
You make it sound as though we're comparing Q1 to Q4.