₦airaland Forum

Streetinvestor2:
Let see what happens from now till January election. You see the way crude goes up and down because of trump/other guy talks is what will be happening. Even alhaji ipo fit no happen this yr

I'm good with the swings, matter of fact, I prefer it. but 220k will hold everytime.

ghm:
Is it available now?

I have been trying to buy it for many months now.

Try tomorrow. I'll be buying tomorrow too.

AIRTELAFRI helps the market reclaim 240k.

It's great to know this index as much as I do.

Those saying election election, you should have picked when you had the chance.

ayobama1:
Mandatory Tender Offer 🤣

Document says TAKE-OVER

Agbalowomeri:
AwesomeJ is not awake yet ni

megawealth01:
MTO means MANDATORY TAKE OVER

M andatory T ake-over O ffer.

The offer is what's mandatory, acceptance is not.

They're only buying up to 2% of the OS.

ASI reclaims 230k early this session.

AIRTELAFRI could still add 3k points.
DANGCEM too.

awesomeJ:
AIRTELAFRI now needs two more gains for offers to begin flooding in.

Finally!!!

After 2 years.

Market now recovering with 2k to 226k!

229k!

AIRTELAFRI now needs two more gains for offers to begin flooding in.

Finally!!!

After 2 years.

Market now recovering with 2k to 226k!

Raider76:
Aradel on the move?

Yes.
The entire market too.
220k will hold.

KarlTom:
Without taking much away from what you wrote, you can do well to reply within the context of the OP wrt ZENITH...

Someone referring to November sell off as correction and you're taking him serious. Why not let him continue the discusion with gemini for some time first?

the announcement in February was that PFA can now invest in stocks? na wah!

megawealth01:
I understand. My fears for this market is may this not head to bears season because this FIT be warm up

Nigerians love their dividends, once Q3 numbers start dropping and people start making projections, they'll find the numbers attractive.

If macros took a hit, then I would fear a prolonged bear.

megawealth01:
Una go gree run?

Hope you are enjoying your sweet ride jare. It's better to enjoy than to see red get redder

average PE below 10 is what I consider healthy for this market. I think at 252k, we were already pushing above 12x.

At 220k, or maybe 200k, the multiples are back to single digits and we can safely have another 20-30% run within healthy valuation bounds.

Yes, I'm enjoying my car, but I'm enjoying my off grid system much more. cos I'm mostly indoors.

Market is now over 11% down fromits recent high. ASI at 224k yet lots of big caps stilll on full offers.
Interesting.
The more the pull back, the more room available for the next run.

lionshare:
IMO we should prioritise local investors. Nigeria’s macro picture is stronger than most, if not all, frontier markets. How are Bangladesh, Ghana, Kenya, etc., currntly better than Nigeria — even on capital repatriation, reserves, debt-to-GDP, or market size?

Yes sir 💯💯

lionshare:
FMDQ FX spot trades settle on T+2. There are workarounds, but the core issue is that FPIs don't want to hold long naira exposure for obvious reasons. So the choice is either to put a workaround in place or call their bluff. Moving to T+1 comes with its own trade-offs, and I'm not convinced our reserves are strong enough to absorb the added pressure right now. If we had, say, $100+ billion in reserves, it would be a much easier transition to implement and manage.

Thanks for the info.

Maybe when FPIs again control the bulk of our market, we will consider prioritizing their interests.

megawealth01:
I'm monitoring the situation of the market closely to know when to strike again 😔

220k should be a good point to start.

megawealth01:
That's if not 3.0 sef

Oasisblue:
It wont be a bull run per se for those that have lost money from this prologed drop.

Yes more of recovery for them. Profit taking 2.0 for some of us!

megawealth01:


If this drop continues this July eh

I project 220k support, but the more it drops the more room we have for another bull run this H2.

Market drops another 3k points to 226k courtesy of DANGCEM.

guyzgirl:
Again, try to stay civil, no one is dragging chair with you!!

Leveraging your example, you assume a person bringing such volumes would rely on generic rates?
You assume the buyer would not need to ALM/ treasury approval to purchase volume?
You ignore the time zones?
You ignore that FMDQ itself has a settlement period.
You ignore that your market is not liquid enough to guarantee that a large trades would be executed after finishing the exchange process.
You expect the foreign investor to inadvertently take a long position on the naira, pending when his trade is concluded?
Like you said, they don't want to pre-fund, and thats because there are greater risks associated with the position, compared to other markets.
Remember that investors still suffer PTSD from recently not being able to repatriate their naira earning?

Don’t trivialize by equating systems to computers running large $ volumes, i know we both know it goes beyond that.

The only point i see here is the FMDQ settlement period you mentioned, all else are assumotions you made on my behalf and are not diffrent whether T+1 or T+2 abi timezone in new york has suddenly chnaged because CSCS transitioned to T+1?


so now, what's the timeline for settling spot trades on the FMDq?

If you had simply said "FMDQ doesn't do same day settlement even for spot trades", that would have conveyed your point far better than this unnecessary complications and irrelevant points about timezones.

Olaide1295:
But that has always been the case before the T+1 change. The foreign guys give instruction to their brokers, the broker buys and then the foreign investor moves in money same day which settles next day.

The problem with this T+1 is it doesn't allow them enough time. They also don't want to prefund and take on currency risk etc.

The solution is either for us to return to T+2 or if the CBN/FMDQ can make Naira convertible (this is a long term thing, can't be rushed).

Maybe the missing link here is the settlement time on the FMDQ, I assume spot trades there are instantly settled, someone with actual knowledge should please confirm the actual settlement timeline.

You're the one who has given the clearest explanation to this. Other posters made it seem like CSCS was wrong for requiring prefunding or that there was no naira liquidity.

If the actual case is that FMDQ settles in T+1, like Tbills are also settled in T+1, then FPIs will need to prefund a day before which makes the concern understandable but not significant enough for us to roll back our T+1

Olaide1295:
How down is the market from ATH? In percentage terms.

252k -228k is about 24k points off ATH, that's about 9.5%

Oasisblue:
Wow. NGX suffered highest monthly loss in recent history in June 2026. In percentage terms, June’s 8.28% decline is not Nigeria’s worst monthly market correction. However, the size of today’s market makes June 2026 unprecedented in value terms. Back in March 2020, the entire Nigerian stock market was worth only about N13.6 trillion, meaning the whole exchange was roughly the size of the wealth destroyed in June alone.- Niarametrics

Will this continue in July?

Actual loss was over 10.5%, it was moderated with airtel finally surging back to life in June.

guyzgirl:
Sir, you are the one who brought up trust issues around being matched by cscs and not being able to consummate, hence the onus is one you to justify your worry.

Try to stay in the realm of civility.

then you obviously didn't read my post well.

let me rephrase: as a market partcipant who sells shares, it's in my interest that the CSCS requires potential buyers to prefund their accounts before attempting to buy my shares.

that's not a statement that requires me to prove anything, just an explanation on why prefunding is the ideal requirement.

Your Russel people want the CSCS to match me to a buyer who will then start looking for naira to pay me after the sale haba na.

guyzgirl:
Firstly, the funds in question are institutional funds not retail dollars.

Secondly, have you considered the turnaround time for nigerian banks to receive large fx funds, convert the funds and then credit the naira equivalent? Are you considering time zones?

Some problems are better understood when you have first hand knowledge and experience them. Please note that your expectation is not the problem, but the versatility and limitations of the financial market infrastructure is the problem.

What infrastructure??
Do you just enjoy sounding unnecessarily complicated?

Are you saying we do not already have FX infrasture in place or you mean FMDQ systems would crash if they attempeted processing $10bn?

By the way you should realize that as far as systems are concerned, the computer uses thesame processing power to move $1m as it does moving $500bn.

please state with clarity where you think the problems exists so we can see if you have any genuine points, or if it's AI that's feeding you confusion.


Also mention one time when FX inflows came into the country and between the primary dealers on the FMDQ and the CBN, nobody could get them liquidity.

some of you try to regurgitate AI garbage without context.


We had a similar complaints about this FX conversion regarding prefunding in our debt market 1 or 2 years ago, but LISTEN CLOSELY:

The FPIs concerns WERE NEVER IF THEY WOULD GET NAIRA, IT WAS 10000000% ABOUT THEM NOT WANTING TO PRE FUND IF THEY WEREN'T YET SURE THEIR BIDS WOULD SAIL!!!

THAT'S BIDS IN ALL THE DEBT INSTRUMENTS INCLUDING OMO.

So learn small context, and rely less on irrelevant theories.

guyzgirl:
Are you aware of an instance where a matched transaction was not consummated? Let’s not imagine problems, and base a system on our imaginations, where data exist.

Even if we were to admit your imagination into the review, t+1, does not solve that problem.

Matched transaction not consummated in which market, provide the data you refer to and stop making cheap attempts at sounding informed.

mikeapollo:
FTSE Russell can go to blazes! The NGX rules are not meant for only FTSE Russell.
Now, ask yourself this fundamental question: Between T+2 and T+1, which one is better for market liquidity, and investor confidence?
T+2 and T+1 are the preferred trading cycles in most global exchanges, so what is different with NGX opting from T+2 to T+1?

I tire o. Like I should be confident to sell my shares to a buyer that doesn't have the cash to pay me?? why would anyone paint prefunding in such bad light?

Meerahbel:
This is a valid concern, but I don't think T+1 is necessarily the problem.

Faster settlement is the direction every serious capital market is moving toward because it reduces counterparty risk, improves market efficiency, and lowers settlement failures. Nigeria cannot postpone modernization indefinitely simply because other parts of the financial system are still developing.

The real issue isn't T+1—it's the FX market. If investors struggle to access naira on demand, they would face that challenge under T+2 as well. T+1 simply exposes a weakness that has existed for years.

In fact, introducing T+1 could pressure regulators and market participants to improve FX liquidity, settlement infrastructure, and funding mechanisms faster. Waiting until everything is perfect before modernizing may only delay reforms.

Also, FTSE Russell placing Nigeria's reclassification on hold doesn't automatically mean T+1 is a mistake. Their review considers overall market accessibility, including FX availability, capital mobility, and operational efficiency. T+1 is just one part of a much larger picture.

The better solution isn't to abandon T+1. It's to strengthen the FX market, improve intraday liquidity, expand securities lending and financing, and ensure foreign investors can access naira efficiently. Once those pieces improve, T+1 becomes a competitive advantage rather than a disadvantage.

So the debate shouldn't be "T+1 or T+2." It should be how quickly Nigeria can build the supporting infrastructure that allows T+1 to work as intended.

Exactly!!!!


My only confusion is why are you like Isaac also making it sound like selling dollars to get naira is so hard am i missing something? isn't it the other conversion that's been hard since i've known this country


I reckon even if $10bn came in today, N15trn will appear to buy it, abi e pass for CBN to just type in N15trn and adjust balance sheet with the dollars they buy??

isaacosas01:
People keep asking “how can faster settlement be bad?” Let me explain.

When a foreign fund wants to buy NGX stocks, they don’t have naira sitting somewhere. They wire dollars, their custodian converts to naira through CBN FX window, THEN they buy shares.

Under T+2, they had 2 days to sort that FX conversion. Manageable.

Under T+1, they have to fund the trade same day. Our FX market cannot deliver large naira amounts same-day consistently. So what happens? They have to convert dollars to naira BEFORE any trade is even placed and just leave it sitting there on standby.

That is called prefunding. And that is the problem.

Why would any serious fund hold naira? Every day you sit in naira waiting to deploy, you are bleeding in dollar terms. Before you buy a single share, you are already losing.

FTSE Russell issued a notice yesterday because of this putting Nigeria’s Frontier Market reclassification on HOLD. We were supposed to get that status in September 2026, which would have triggered automatic buying from global index funds. That money is now on hold.

We copied T+1 from USA and India without copying the part that makes it work for them — a deep FX market where you can source local currency instantly.

We put the cart before the horse. We need to fix the naira liquidity problem first.

Since when has naira become scarce in our FX market?

buying naira is the easiest side of the fx transaction ain't it??

I mean almost every bank in nigeria would gladly buy your dollars for naira in 2 seconds, no form, no paperwork, super swift, it's to buy dollars with naira that's hard. I don't understand your point.

Plus there's an inconsistency if you say T+2 gives them 2 days while T+1 requires same day. it's either you say T+2 gives them 2 days while T+1 gives them one day, or if you insist the later requires same day, then the former only gave them 1 day not 2.

isaacosas01:
NO! Capital NO! A pre-funded market is very BAD.
A requirement to prefund equity trades is deemed a negative for the Settlement Cycle (DvP) criterion.

For those who don’t know DvP means Delivery versus Payment — the global standard where cash and shares move simultaneously at settlement. No advance funding needed. Nigeria just broke that standard for foreign investors.

If we don’t solve this we would NEVER get on FTSE Russell

You mean you would rather have the CSCS match you with a buyer that they're not sure has the funds to pay you?

I think you and your Russell people should shift.