₦airaland Forum

megawealth01:


If this drop continues this July eh

I project 220k support, but the more it drops the more room we have for another bull run this H2.

Market drops another 3k points to 226k courtesy of DANGCEM.

guyzgirl:
Again, try to stay civil, no one is dragging chair with you!!

Leveraging your example, you assume a person bringing such volumes would rely on generic rates?
You assume the buyer would not need to ALM/ treasury approval to purchase volume?
You ignore the time zones?
You ignore that FMDQ itself has a settlement period.
You ignore that your market is not liquid enough to guarantee that a large trades would be executed after finishing the exchange process.
You expect the foreign investor to inadvertently take a long position on the naira, pending when his trade is concluded?
Like you said, they don't want to pre-fund, and thats because there are greater risks associated with the position, compared to other markets.
Remember that investors still suffer PTSD from recently not being able to repatriate their naira earning?

Don’t trivialize by equating systems to computers running large $ volumes, i know we both know it goes beyond that.

The only point i see here is the FMDQ settlement period you mentioned, all else are assumotions you made on my behalf and are not diffrent whether T+1 or T+2 abi timezone in new york has suddenly chnaged because CSCS transitioned to T+1?


so now, what's the timeline for settling spot trades on the FMDq?

If you had simply said "FMDQ doesn't do same day settlement even for spot trades", that would have conveyed your point far better than this unnecessary complications and irrelevant points about timezones.

Olaide1295:
But that has always been the case before the T+1 change. The foreign guys give instruction to their brokers, the broker buys and then the foreign investor moves in money same day which settles next day.

The problem with this T+1 is it doesn't allow them enough time. They also don't want to prefund and take on currency risk etc.

The solution is either for us to return to T+2 or if the CBN/FMDQ can make Naira convertible (this is a long term thing, can't be rushed).

Maybe the missing link here is the settlement time on the FMDQ, I assume spot trades there are instantly settled, someone with actual knowledge should please confirm the actual settlement timeline.

You're the one who has given the clearest explanation to this. Other posters made it seem like CSCS was wrong for requiring prefunding or that there was no naira liquidity.

If the actual case is that FMDQ settles in T+1, like Tbills are also settled in T+1, then FPIs will need to prefund a day before which makes the concern understandable but not significant enough for us to roll back our T+1

Olaide1295:
How down is the market from ATH? In percentage terms.

252k -228k is about 24k points off ATH, that's about 9.5%

Oasisblue:
Wow. NGX suffered highest monthly loss in recent history in June 2026. In percentage terms, June’s 8.28% decline is not Nigeria’s worst monthly market correction. However, the size of today’s market makes June 2026 unprecedented in value terms. Back in March 2020, the entire Nigerian stock market was worth only about N13.6 trillion, meaning the whole exchange was roughly the size of the wealth destroyed in June alone.- Niarametrics

Will this continue in July?

Actual loss was over 10.5%, it was moderated with airtel finally surging back to life in June.

guyzgirl:
Sir, you are the one who brought up trust issues around being matched by cscs and not being able to consummate, hence the onus is one you to justify your worry.

Try to stay in the realm of civility.

then you obviously didn't read my post well.

let me rephrase: as a market partcipant who sells shares, it's in my interest that the CSCS requires potential buyers to prefund their accounts before attempting to buy my shares.

that's not a statement that requires me to prove anything, just an explanation on why prefunding is the ideal requirement.

Your Russel people want the CSCS to match me to a buyer who will then start looking for naira to pay me after the sale haba na.

guyzgirl:
Firstly, the funds in question are institutional funds not retail dollars.

Secondly, have you considered the turnaround time for nigerian banks to receive large fx funds, convert the funds and then credit the naira equivalent? Are you considering time zones?

Some problems are better understood when you have first hand knowledge and experience them. Please note that your expectation is not the problem, but the versatility and limitations of the financial market infrastructure is the problem.

What infrastructure??
Do you just enjoy sounding unnecessarily complicated?

Are you saying we do not already have FX infrasture in place or you mean FMDQ systems would crash if they attempeted processing $10bn?

By the way you should realize that as far as systems are concerned, the computer uses thesame processing power to move $1m as it does moving $500bn.

please state with clarity where you think the problems exists so we can see if you have any genuine points, or if it's AI that's feeding you confusion.


Also mention one time when FX inflows came into the country and between the primary dealers on the FMDQ and the CBN, nobody could get them liquidity.

some of you try to regurgitate AI garbage without context.


We had a similar complaints about this FX conversion regarding prefunding in our debt market 1 or 2 years ago, but LISTEN CLOSELY:

The FPIs concerns WERE NEVER IF THEY WOULD GET NAIRA, IT WAS 10000000% ABOUT THEM NOT WANTING TO PRE FUND IF THEY WEREN'T YET SURE THEIR BIDS WOULD SAIL!!!

THAT'S BIDS IN ALL THE DEBT INSTRUMENTS INCLUDING OMO.

So learn small context, and rely less on irrelevant theories.

guyzgirl:
Are you aware of an instance where a matched transaction was not consummated? Let’s not imagine problems, and base a system on our imaginations, where data exist.

Even if we were to admit your imagination into the review, t+1, does not solve that problem.

Matched transaction not consummated in which market, provide the data you refer to and stop making cheap attempts at sounding informed.

mikeapollo:
FTSE Russell can go to blazes! The NGX rules are not meant for only FTSE Russell.
Now, ask yourself this fundamental question: Between T+2 and T+1, which one is better for market liquidity, and investor confidence?
T+2 and T+1 are the preferred trading cycles in most global exchanges, so what is different with NGX opting from T+2 to T+1?

I tire o. Like I should be confident to sell my shares to a buyer that doesn't have the cash to pay me?? why would anyone paint prefunding in such bad light?

Meerahbel:
This is a valid concern, but I don't think T+1 is necessarily the problem.

Faster settlement is the direction every serious capital market is moving toward because it reduces counterparty risk, improves market efficiency, and lowers settlement failures. Nigeria cannot postpone modernization indefinitely simply because other parts of the financial system are still developing.

The real issue isn't T+1—it's the FX market. If investors struggle to access naira on demand, they would face that challenge under T+2 as well. T+1 simply exposes a weakness that has existed for years.

In fact, introducing T+1 could pressure regulators and market participants to improve FX liquidity, settlement infrastructure, and funding mechanisms faster. Waiting until everything is perfect before modernizing may only delay reforms.

Also, FTSE Russell placing Nigeria's reclassification on hold doesn't automatically mean T+1 is a mistake. Their review considers overall market accessibility, including FX availability, capital mobility, and operational efficiency. T+1 is just one part of a much larger picture.

The better solution isn't to abandon T+1. It's to strengthen the FX market, improve intraday liquidity, expand securities lending and financing, and ensure foreign investors can access naira efficiently. Once those pieces improve, T+1 becomes a competitive advantage rather than a disadvantage.

So the debate shouldn't be "T+1 or T+2." It should be how quickly Nigeria can build the supporting infrastructure that allows T+1 to work as intended.

Exactly!!!!


My only confusion is why are you like Isaac also making it sound like selling dollars to get naira is so hard am i missing something? isn't it the other conversion that's been hard since i've known this country


I reckon even if $10bn came in today, N15trn will appear to buy it, abi e pass for CBN to just type in N15trn and adjust balance sheet with the dollars they buy??

isaacosas01:
People keep asking “how can faster settlement be bad?” Let me explain.

When a foreign fund wants to buy NGX stocks, they don’t have naira sitting somewhere. They wire dollars, their custodian converts to naira through CBN FX window, THEN they buy shares.

Under T+2, they had 2 days to sort that FX conversion. Manageable.

Under T+1, they have to fund the trade same day. Our FX market cannot deliver large naira amounts same-day consistently. So what happens? They have to convert dollars to naira BEFORE any trade is even placed and just leave it sitting there on standby.

That is called prefunding. And that is the problem.

Why would any serious fund hold naira? Every day you sit in naira waiting to deploy, you are bleeding in dollar terms. Before you buy a single share, you are already losing.

FTSE Russell issued a notice yesterday because of this putting Nigeria’s Frontier Market reclassification on HOLD. We were supposed to get that status in September 2026, which would have triggered automatic buying from global index funds. That money is now on hold.

We copied T+1 from USA and India without copying the part that makes it work for them — a deep FX market where you can source local currency instantly.

We put the cart before the horse. We need to fix the naira liquidity problem first.

Since when has naira become scarce in our FX market?

buying naira is the easiest side of the fx transaction ain't it??

I mean almost every bank in nigeria would gladly buy your dollars for naira in 2 seconds, no form, no paperwork, super swift, it's to buy dollars with naira that's hard. I don't understand your point.

Plus there's an inconsistency if you say T+2 gives them 2 days while T+1 requires same day. it's either you say T+2 gives them 2 days while T+1 gives them one day, or if you insist the later requires same day, then the former only gave them 1 day not 2.

isaacosas01:
NO! Capital NO! A pre-funded market is very BAD.
A requirement to prefund equity trades is deemed a negative for the Settlement Cycle (DvP) criterion.

For those who don’t know DvP means Delivery versus Payment — the global standard where cash and shares move simultaneously at settlement. No advance funding needed. Nigeria just broke that standard for foreign investors.

If we don’t solve this we would NEVER get on FTSE Russell

You mean you would rather have the CSCS match you with a buyer that they're not sure has the funds to pay you?

I think you and your Russell people should shift.

AIRTELAFRI helps the market moderate June losses.

From a dip to 227k, market now back at 229k, ending the month with a green session.

Also, offers will start showing up on AIRTELAFRI next month after maybe a 3-year drought.

ppogba:
You are very correct. I wanted to correct the anomaly yesterday but was also mindful of being insulted.

The correct proverb is " he that wants to witness the blinking of a crab will tary endlessly by the sea shore".

THE CRAB NEVER BLINKS.

E ku ogbon.

Okay

mikeapollo:
A Yoruba adage says ''he who waits for a crab to fall asleep will wait forever''

!

I thought it's "he who waits for a crab to blink??"

Abi it's rubbish Tony Tetuila sang that year??

isaacosas01:
I agree with you.

One correction tho -There is a Naira-denominated portion of the PP. There are banks in Nigeria currently receiving NAIRA from people (institution) that got the offer.

Also to restate your position the selling pressure effect doesn’t need to match the full $2bn. Even marginal institutional selling in a thin NGX market moves prices sharply remember the NGX is not a deep market

Yes sir 💯💯
Thanks for the correction too.

isaacosas01:
So lemme tell you guys what is going on in the short term.

Dangote private placement issued it’s allotment offer letter last week.

Those who got the offer last week have till this week to pay otherwise they lose it.

They are selling the most liquid stock to raise cash to take up their offer.

If you ran the numbers, the PP isn't significantly responsible for the market crash.

First the PP positions need funding in USD.

Alhaji mentioned people already put up, USD2bn, meaning that they probably had that liquiduty on hand.


Now the numbers:
Market has done 20 Sessions with c. 40bn per session. That's less than 800bn total or USD 500m ish.



So, even if everyone who sold never put a dime back in the market, the entire procceds for the whole month is nowhere near the liquidity required for the PP.

The PP had some impact, true but Let's put it on the right scale.

Abi Davido for instance needed to sell shares to fund his own??

SimpleGuy001:
Nope. That is why you need to do your check. Immediately they released their FS. After my analysis, I knew it was expensive and immediately bail out. (Not withstanding the general bearish movement, it was overvalued).

You might have been very wrong in a bull market.

So don't discount the market's irrationality. It will often humble any checks you do.

Oasisblue:
The frustrating thing is, one deoesnt really knwo the cause of the slide. Companies are making good profits and there is no epidemic.

The cause is mostly profit taking and asset rotation. some to fixed income, some anticipating DANGREFINERY.

The later part of your post is why you shouldn't wait too longe before taking positions.
I've projected 220k as a support, you might be more comfortable with 200k, but the lower you wait below 220k, the more you risk being left behind when the next rally begins.

But prepare your mind first ooooo!!!!

Will you be contented with the profits you took should the stock surge anothe 4x after you bailed??

This is the biggest psychological hurdle to cross to successfully trade markets.

My entire strategy for instance is premised on little gains consistently on large volumes, I've never done 50% whereas some long termers have done 2000%, but I know that overall, I outperform!

Oasisblue:
This is my biggest lesson on the NGX this year- my 3rd year of active investment. Going forward, I will act more like a trader than a longterm investor. It is too painful seeing your gains eroded daily.

profits taken are sweet

At over 9% dip, June 2026 is now officially the worst month since at least 2024. Maybe even since Covid.

toyeoye:
🚨 The biggest stock on the NGX just hit LIMIT DOWN.
MTNN is down 10% to ₦747, wiping off ₦83 per share in ongoing session.
When a ₦17.4 trillion giant is locked at the floor, the whole market feels it.

230K now broken!!!
Market at 228k now.

Good thing is MTNN will be back up around 800 soon, AIRTELAFRI too.
220k will hold.

KarlTom:
ARADEL might have reached its plateau IF SEPLAT doesn't tank further...

Every mallam to his kettle

SEPLAT needs to do 9k.

Also if it helps, I was among the first to call for this correction. I did that here around April.

I predicted 200k while some people projected 250k we were then at 230k or so.

My 200k prediction was based on the fact that we needed to maintain healthy valuations in the market and not make it seem like another money making magic.


The market defied my projection(always temporarily) but is now aligning.

So this new one might also be defied for a few weeks, but good news is that it will eventually align and the bulls will be back to everyone's delight.

I upped from 200k to 220k mostly cos of AIRTELAFRI which by itself will have added that 20k difference by the time it settles at its market price of N6500.

In my own opinion though, elections effects are being overstated. It's less than 10% of the reasons for this current trend.

We had excessive optimism between February and April, market surged about 50% in 3 months, valuations got overstretched. We overbought.

So, it's just basic correction from profit taking. People are taking profit and rotating their assets into other instruments like fixed income and dangote refinery. Some of us to chop life.( I have now gone off grid and enjoy 24/7 power)

I think 220k will certainly hold, and July will be green.

All these projections of multi-month reds are not likely to hold.

220k -230k is a good place to start buying this market again.

Valuations are gradually returning to healthy multiples, and so long the underlying businesses remain fundamentally sound, we're fine.


This is a market where we buy into companies making real monies, so trying to tie it to trends about elections would be more relevant to assets like Bitcoin that have no underlying value generation.

Cryptos and such assets which lack underlying fundamentals can move with any pattern: frequency of Trump's tweets(or truths), volatility of the NASDAQ composite, Bitcoin halving, sometimes even just bad weather 😁😁, so tying them to elections wouldn't be out of place, cos they can share good correlation with anything 😁.


But you come to the stock market, you mention election years without looking at what the earnings of the underlying businesses were in those years, what multiples was the market trading? What were fixed income yields, you ignore the core determinants and focus on just one immaterial factor as if na horoscope buyers take dey open positions.


Similar to someone expecting a crash in crude oil prices now to crash the market as much as it did in 2020 without that person looking at how much of the market is now held locally vs by FPIs in 2020. Should crude crash again, the market will sell off, but it would be no where near the severity of the 2020 sell off. Simply cos majority of the people selling are no longer foreigners

This market is more developed compared to what we had in say 07, when people who probably couldn't even spell the word "shares" were buying shares, if they couldn't spell, they certainly weren't buying based on PE or dividend yields. Valuations at those periods were also almost at a disconnect from the underlying businesses.


If elections would have significant impact on the market, 2015 and 2023 elections were better poised, this next one, even a amateur analyst can call, well except of course the majority of us decide to go out and vote instead of "delegating" to the same regular people.


That's my opinion, I hope it conveys some level of optimism.

Market isn't going below 220k, GTCO isn't going below #100, so maybe plan with those supports.

Even BTC has now broken new 52-week low.

I wonder how Saylor survives HBP with this his risky strategy at Strategy.

Oasisblue:
“My first interpretation of the H2 2026 outlook is in the context of the pre-election year we are currently in. In pre-election years, the stock market tends to be strong from January to May, and then we start seeing some weakening from June. That decline tends to be very strong in August and September — in fact, in the pre-election years we analysed, the ASI was actually negative in both months.”- Mr. Abiodun Ogunniyi, Head of Research, GTI Securities

It will be terrible if this trend continues till August!

But we had more than enough in the summer months that should outlast these winter months.

ItGeek:
Hey bro, sent you a PM.

Okay, I've replied.

toyeoye:
🚨 Red corner before noon.

ARADEL joins the limit-down list (-10%), alongside DEAPCAP(DWL)

Pressure is spreading across the market, but trading activity remains selective with volume still thin. 📉

We just might break 230k support tomorrow.
June might end up nearing -9% maiking it the slowest month since at least 2024.