₦airaland Forum

AIRTELAFRI helps the market moderate June losses.

From a dip to 227k, market now back at 229k, ending the month with a green session.

Also, offers will start showing up on AIRTELAFRI next month after maybe a 3-year drought.

ppogba:
You are very correct. I wanted to correct the anomaly yesterday but was also mindful of being insulted.

The correct proverb is " he that wants to witness the blinking of a crab will tary endlessly by the sea shore".

THE CRAB NEVER BLINKS.

E ku ogbon.

Okay

mikeapollo:
A Yoruba adage says ''he who waits for a crab to fall asleep will wait forever''

!

I thought it's "he who waits for a crab to blink??"

Abi it's rubbish Tony Tetuila sang that year??

isaacosas01:
I agree with you.

One correction tho -There is a Naira-denominated portion of the PP. There are banks in Nigeria currently receiving NAIRA from people (institution) that got the offer.

Also to restate your position the selling pressure effect doesn’t need to match the full $2bn. Even marginal institutional selling in a thin NGX market moves prices sharply remember the NGX is not a deep market

Yes sir 💯💯
Thanks for the correction too.

isaacosas01:
So lemme tell you guys what is going on in the short term.

Dangote private placement issued it’s allotment offer letter last week.

Those who got the offer last week have till this week to pay otherwise they lose it.

They are selling the most liquid stock to raise cash to take up their offer.

If you ran the numbers, the PP isn't significantly responsible for the market crash.

First the PP positions need funding in USD.

Alhaji mentioned people already put up, USD2bn, meaning that they probably had that liquiduty on hand.


Now the numbers:
Market has done 20 Sessions with c. 40bn per session. That's less than 800bn total or USD 500m ish.



So, even if everyone who sold never put a dime back in the market, the entire procceds for the whole month is nowhere near the liquidity required for the PP.

The PP had some impact, true but Let's put it on the right scale.

Abi Davido for instance needed to sell shares to fund his own??

SimpleGuy001:
Nope. That is why you need to do your check. Immediately they released their FS. After my analysis, I knew it was expensive and immediately bail out. (Not withstanding the general bearish movement, it was overvalued).

You might have been very wrong in a bull market.

So don't discount the market's irrationality. It will often humble any checks you do.

Oasisblue:
The frustrating thing is, one deoesnt really knwo the cause of the slide. Companies are making good profits and there is no epidemic.

The cause is mostly profit taking and asset rotation. some to fixed income, some anticipating DANGREFINERY.

The later part of your post is why you shouldn't wait too longe before taking positions.
I've projected 220k as a support, you might be more comfortable with 200k, but the lower you wait below 220k, the more you risk being left behind when the next rally begins.

But prepare your mind first ooooo!!!!

Will you be contented with the profits you took should the stock surge anothe 4x after you bailed??

This is the biggest psychological hurdle to cross to successfully trade markets.

My entire strategy for instance is premised on little gains consistently on large volumes, I've never done 50% whereas some long termers have done 2000%, but I know that overall, I outperform!

Oasisblue:
This is my biggest lesson on the NGX this year- my 3rd year of active investment. Going forward, I will act more like a trader than a longterm investor. It is too painful seeing your gains eroded daily.

profits taken are sweet

At over 9% dip, June 2026 is now officially the worst month since at least 2024. Maybe even since Covid.

toyeoye:
🚨 The biggest stock on the NGX just hit LIMIT DOWN.
MTNN is down 10% to ₦747, wiping off ₦83 per share in ongoing session.
When a ₦17.4 trillion giant is locked at the floor, the whole market feels it.

230K now broken!!!
Market at 228k now.

Good thing is MTNN will be back up around 800 soon, AIRTELAFRI too.
220k will hold.

KarlTom:
ARADEL might have reached its plateau IF SEPLAT doesn't tank further...

Every mallam to his kettle

SEPLAT needs to do 9k.

Also if it helps, I was among the first to call for this correction. I did that here around April.

I predicted 200k while some people projected 250k we were then at 230k or so.

My 200k prediction was based on the fact that we needed to maintain healthy valuations in the market and not make it seem like another money making magic.


The market defied my projection(always temporarily) but is now aligning.

So this new one might also be defied for a few weeks, but good news is that it will eventually align and the bulls will be back to everyone's delight.

I upped from 200k to 220k mostly cos of AIRTELAFRI which by itself will have added that 20k difference by the time it settles at its market price of N6500.

In my own opinion though, elections effects are being overstated. It's less than 10% of the reasons for this current trend.

We had excessive optimism between February and April, market surged about 50% in 3 months, valuations got overstretched. We overbought.

So, it's just basic correction from profit taking. People are taking profit and rotating their assets into other instruments like fixed income and dangote refinery. Some of us to chop life.( I have now gone off grid and enjoy 24/7 power)

I think 220k will certainly hold, and July will be green.

All these projections of multi-month reds are not likely to hold.

220k -230k is a good place to start buying this market again.

Valuations are gradually returning to healthy multiples, and so long the underlying businesses remain fundamentally sound, we're fine.


This is a market where we buy into companies making real monies, so trying to tie it to trends about elections would be more relevant to assets like Bitcoin that have no underlying value generation.

Cryptos and such assets which lack underlying fundamentals can move with any pattern: frequency of Trump's tweets(or truths), volatility of the NASDAQ composite, Bitcoin halving, sometimes even just bad weather 😁😁, so tying them to elections wouldn't be out of place, cos they can share good correlation with anything 😁.


But you come to the stock market, you mention election years without looking at what the earnings of the underlying businesses were in those years, what multiples was the market trading? What were fixed income yields, you ignore the core determinants and focus on just one immaterial factor as if na horoscope buyers take dey open positions.


Similar to someone expecting a crash in crude oil prices now to crash the market as much as it did in 2020 without that person looking at how much of the market is now held locally vs by FPIs in 2020. Should crude crash again, the market will sell off, but it would be no where near the severity of the 2020 sell off. Simply cos majority of the people selling are no longer foreigners

This market is more developed compared to what we had in say 07, when people who probably couldn't even spell the word "shares" were buying shares, if they couldn't spell, they certainly weren't buying based on PE or dividend yields. Valuations at those periods were also almost at a disconnect from the underlying businesses.


If elections would have significant impact on the market, 2015 and 2023 elections were better poised, this next one, even a amateur analyst can call, well except of course the majority of us decide to go out and vote instead of "delegating" to the same regular people.


That's my opinion, I hope it conveys some level of optimism.

Market isn't going below 220k, GTCO isn't going below #100, so maybe plan with those supports.

Even BTC has now broken new 52-week low.

I wonder how Saylor survives HBP with this his risky strategy at Strategy.

Oasisblue:
“My first interpretation of the H2 2026 outlook is in the context of the pre-election year we are currently in. In pre-election years, the stock market tends to be strong from January to May, and then we start seeing some weakening from June. That decline tends to be very strong in August and September — in fact, in the pre-election years we analysed, the ASI was actually negative in both months.”- Mr. Abiodun Ogunniyi, Head of Research, GTI Securities

It will be terrible if this trend continues till August!

But we had more than enough in the summer months that should outlast these winter months.

ItGeek:
Hey bro, sent you a PM.

Okay, I've replied.

toyeoye:
🚨 Red corner before noon.

ARADEL joins the limit-down list (-10%), alongside DEAPCAP(DWL)

Pressure is spreading across the market, but trading activity remains selective with volume still thin. 📉

We just might break 230k support tomorrow.
June might end up nearing -9% maiking it the slowest month since at least 2024.

For anyone interested in how we're fairing in this slow market:

It's by far the slowest month, but still profitable!!! earnings for the month are still above what 90% of nigerian workers make.

awesomeJ:
As it stands, the 10k rule will only affect 7 tickers should it come into effect, for most other stocks things would remain as is: AIRTELAFRI, ARADEL, GEREGU, NESTLE, OKOMUOIL, PRESCO, and SEPLAT.

Take out GEREGU, now just 6!

alezzy13:
But it's not good for my account oo.

I can Imagine.
Maybe a lesson here is to sometimes take profit. maybe bit by bit.

I have a relatively heavy crash on my NAHCO position, but I keep imagining the person Pa Emma mentioned as having 4 million units of the stock just 2 months ago when it was doind 250. If that person never sold, his holdings have gone from N1bn to now just around N560m in 2 months.

Market set to have its worst day in this slowest month of the year. 5200 points shaved off the index courtesy of 100k finally moving on the cement guys.

BUAFOODS, MTNN SEPLAT are all also on full offer, 100k on any of them would compound the fall. But the correction was needed, and it's good for our market.

Mpeace:
If that 10k units movement rules comes into play today ehhhh, NSE go fall like never before. See all the stocks on full offer. Hmmm
Is it the dang refinery ipo money being gathered or elections abi na wetin be the cause

As it stands, the 10k rule will only affect 7 tickers should it come into effect, for most other stocks things would remain as is: AIRTELAFRI, ARADEL, GEREGU, NESTLE, OKOMUOIL, PRESCO, and SEPLAT.

ogawisdom:
The market is still evolving, needs stability and investors confidence more than crazy volatility. I know traders will disagree with me because they make money with volatility but alot of people will be burnt and pull out. We need more participants in the market for it to boom.

i am not really confortable with that new 10k rule as an investor, i prefer 100k rule

You're right sir. We love it cos we're traders

ogawisdom:
on the positive side unless someone does 100k deal at once ARADEL wont go below 1575. 100K deal at once will need a HNI, Institutional Investor.

This is one thing i love about the 10% rule and 100k deal rule. i am hearing they want to change the 100k rule but they should not try that ooo these are protections from loses as the market evolves and frees it from manipulation.

True they're protections, but the 100k rule affects liquidity. If the 10k rule were in place already, we might be buying ARADEL at 1200 this week.

AIRTELAFRI's illiquidity will finally end this quarter. Especially if that 10k units rule goes live soon. 🎉🎉🎉

mikeapollo:
That means you are doing great; Dangote and Otedola should (or will) be seen as your colleagues very soon!
But there is a much larger chunk of the market that are not here in this forum at all

Amen oooo 😁

mikeapollo:
Shift focus beyond this forum! What we do here does not make up to 0.001% of NGX market activity!

Ahhhh.... Me that now does 100 times that volume you quoted nko?

opadiya:
His advice should naturally attract a question mark in a commercial transaction of this nature.

Since higher demands is linked to higher stock price and higher stock price is linked to profit, and that rational investor will seek to maximise profit:-

It is therefore important to question the fellow who wants to take profit while advising other not to buy, the reason he wants to take his profit at 'loss'.

Advising people to buy when a stock is overvalued (Monkey Hunting) is not the point here. The reason for advising when your interest will be adversely affected is the point here.

Like you rightly said, he's giving an advice even though he's poised to lose should people follow that advice and you're calling him out for putting the interestoif others over his own selfish interest Haba na.


What he has exhibited should be commended not at all condemned.

Even though he holds the stock, he doesn't mind saying that at 40x PE, it's overvalued, yet you prefer if he deceives people that the stock is a gold that should be pursued come on na. Obviously if you were chnaced you would rather prefer to lure people into buying.

It's your own stance that people should watch carefully.

opadiya:
This does not address my concern.

Someone who is so altruistic to advise unknown people in faceless forum not to buy and wants to sell should not be taken seriously.

Why does his advice seem contradictory to you? The advice is in line! If I hold a stock, and now current realities imply that it's overvalued, Me deciding to SELL and then telling people not to BUY is exactly an advice in good faith, I don't know if I'm missing something in your interpretation??

Me wanting to sell cos it's overvalued while advising people to buy is what's in bad faith and is called Monkey Hunting here.

KarlTom:
We have more people using calculators instead of keyboards...

The RED seems to be waning though

Waning kwa??
With the BUAs on full offer SEPLAT on full offer, MTNN and DANGCEM also bidding significantly below ref. Price?

We might still be heading below 230k.