₦airaland Forum

Streetinvestor2:
Do you know when many feel the problem of subsidy corruption really happened because of smuggling to neighbouring countries. It is a big lie because I have friends who benefited from it.
The real corruption happened in the importation process. The big fraud was the claim of importing nothing and sending bills to government for it
The smuggling across the boarders was small play.
In otherworld subsidy can now be managed properly and relatively efficient since everything will happen within local refineries. AS no one can just send bill of importation that didn't happen. This was whr the largest corruption and stealing happened. In the previous subsidy process, fake importation bills choke.The smuggling aspect is small problem to handle. As this tankers don't fly in the night. They use known roads and not something u can concel in a bag if willing government want to stop it.it is very easy
When custom seize like 10 and burn it openly.Nobody go wan put his tanker for such risky business when u look at the cost to buy a fuel tanker,you go reason the matter

I agree with you on this.

On the other posts though, your points aren't as sound. You said big companies generate their own power, but they do use diesel or natural gas which have long be deregulated, so what you're saying there I don't get. Your public transport point though is taken, and the govt should make good on their cheap mass transit promises.


I never said the currency was pegged, so no agreement there.


When a country had 40trn in entire money supply but printed extra 30trn cos they were spending money they didn't have, you and I know that was the root cause of the 2x value loss of the currency.

Abi from this our stock market business, what happens to a company's eps, if it had 40bn OS and created additional 30bn shares and allotted it all to insiders without collecting any cash, their balance sheet would at best stay stagnant while eps would crash by half, then the market if rational would reprice the stock at half the previous price, same exact thing with currencies.

If they had continued printing, the currency would simply have continued sliding, That's how we got the worthless Zimbabwean trillion dollars.

megawealth01:
Has the living condition of the masses changed positively?

i understand your point. The answer to your question is No.

However the question in itselft isn't fair.

A fair question is: Given the place the economy had been put before 2023, has the actions and policies of this govt made things better for the masses than they would have inevitably been? The answer to that is "Yes"

Streetinvestor2:
Well u are entitled to your opinion. And just like I have my own as I disagree with the figures portrayed all over your post.I don't remember any one saying they want fuel 3 or 5 times cheaper. You picked those numbers to push your position
Why should our consumption rocket from 42 million to 100 million because I've now have subsidy. So the consumption is even as low as 32 million liters. So you believe it is rocket science and impossible to stop smuggling of fuel to neighbouring countries by willing government. If you believe as nation we cannot police our boarders then we have no government. The dollar going to 1900 and down to 1300 is nothing special. It was same government theat made it get to that 1900
And now systematically doing manage floating at above 1300.So another government can still do same manage floating at even 1000 or less to make life affordable for Nigerians
The only constant thing in all this is bat government has made life most difficult for majority of Nigerians .And the inflation figures are lies after changing methodology in the name of rebasing of the economy.
And why won't reserve grow naturally when crude prices has been above 65 dollars benchmark in our budget for reasonable time

let me see a few points I can address from your post:
1. Crude prices were around $100 for the most part of GEJ's tenure until US shale in 2014 crashed the market. How come reserves still got depleted druring his time?, now you want to make light the achievement of growing net reserves by 700% just caus crude was over $65? that opinion is bias

2. It was not the government that took it to 1900, it was headed there and far beyond anyways, it's a natural consequence of having no reserves. the currency wouldn't be worth the paper it's printed on. Zimbabwe has a currency note of $1,000,000,000,000 that couldn't buy a loaf of bread.

3. If the economy improves to a point where 1000 to the dollar is sustainable then the rates will naturally move there, in the meantime, stabilising at 1300 is achievement enough.

4. securing the vast borders is not about cheap talk, it requires manpower that's either unavailable or already far stretched. If you can buy a N100m car, you should be able to fuel it, don't expect your lavish consumption to be subsidized, the common man doesn't consume anywhere near the big man. plus diesel that affects cost of transporting goods has always been deregulated for decades now.

5. If fuel in already cheaper in Nigeria than in neighboring countries, asking for any meaningful subsidy is exactly asking for it to be 3 to 5x cheaper.

6. I do not dismiss the fact the people are going through a lot, what we're saying is previous administrations only kicked the can down the road, and they were more responsible for the root causes. there was no reason our reserves shouldn't have exceeded $100bn under GEJ.

mikeapollo:
This is the time to find a way to adjust the price of fuel.
It is crominal foolishand insensitive sell crude to Dangote using the international price and exchange rate in naira.
The nation should rather sell the crude to DR at a national-determined price and also agree to a price that DR would sell to the public. Dangote can supply the whole country successfully without any queues
The peices can be reviewed every 3 months or 6 months etc

How much is PMS in Niger, and Cameroon and Benin republic?

July figures put our consumption at just over 32m litres daily do you think it would be possible to keep that figure below 100m litres if fuel became 3 to 5x cheaper in Nigeria, wouldn't the massive reward make the risk of smuggling worthwhile for a lot of people?


Now at just 32m litres, we're able to still sell more crude in USD and grow reserves to almost $53bn now, if we had to be supplying a 100m litre daily consumption, wouldn't all our crude production be given to dangote with zero Fx inflows from crude?

Then what do you think would happen to the exchange rate if reserves were today at $17bn?

how would the masses cope with N4700 exchange rate to the dollar or 190k for a bag of rice?


Nobody seems to be mentioning the fact that food is now even cheaper in some cases that Buhari's time, and in most other cases, it's less than 50% more expensive.

since OBJ took reserves to $60Bn largely possible due to debt waivers, no other goverment has been able to grow the reserves beyond what they met in office, these folks have grown it to 200% of what they met. Net reserves growth is even closer to 500%.


people like to think these do not matter to the masses, but while small income is terrible, what's much worse is for the income to not be worth much!! Again i'll give Buhari's trajectory for the currency:

2020: 360
2021: 450 (1.25x)
2022: 600 (1.33x)
2023: 750 (1.25x)

then let's extrapolate using a conservative 1.25x
2024: 940
2025: 1200
2026: 1500
2027: 1900

it was a choice between slow, gradual and pertual loss and a steep one-off loss, the latter is much better.
2026 rate is already lower than it would have been, 2027 will even be much lower.


The problem is they even had to deplete over $30bn in reserves to keep the depreciation as low as 25 -33%. At the point they were in 2023, the reserves had been drained to just $3bn, there was no more firepower, and so the 25% depreciation projection might have in reality been anyhwere from 50% to 500%, cos they had simply run out of dollars.

Zimbabwe, Venzuela, Argentina, and Iran are examples of countries where currency crisis has happened so it's not just theories.

Helping the people maintain their purchasing power is an achievement this government has made and it's one that over 99% of the populace benefits from. It's the reason the common man doesn't need 200k for a bag of rice, or N200m for a car.


This might sound strange especially given the sharp depreciation between 2023 and 2024. No one denies that everyone lost purchasing power significantly in that one year period, what we're saying is if the buhari trajectory had been maintained the loss in purchasing power by now would have been much worse!!!!, so in that regard everyone in the entire country is better off. And now between 2024 to date, everyone has gained more purchasing power, imagine if the 1900 exchange rate of February 2024 was the reality today, almost everything would be 50% more expensive, not to mention that it was heading for 5k.

I believe we're all informed enough to understand this analysis, subjective bias is the problem.

Streetinvestor2:
I know that.I know we are never going for same candidates from past post here
I only picked interest because I said I will not invest new cash into ngx till after this government is kicked out and mad bull will show after that is done next yr
So when I saw you February timing I decided to pull your legs thr as election out come would have been decided
Though I was surprised u went against apc in osun in your bet..lol

Nice 😁😁

vacanci:
guy you are so real.

I like your kind

Thank you ✊

Streetinvestor2:
U are in the spirit as our new Nigeria will be possible

They spent over 100 billion alone for osun. You can imagine what baron and his 31 thieves will be spending in 2027 election as apc looters

I don't think we're calling thesame outcome foe the election though, so maybe your election spirit isn't same as mine.

mallamOmonile1:
I agree with you 100%.

whatever one is buying now, just prepare to take profit feb...march...April...May 2027.
The market will just be doing kalo kalo for now.

Market will be bullish from November though.
Possibly earlier.

But super bull will be by January.

Market fighting to hold 240k.

Good time to start buying especially if you intend holding till February.

July inflation at 15.43%. Glad I got paid for being right.

Anyone else experiencing connection issues with the market?

ghm:
Oga, I appreciate your contributions on stock-related matters, but bringing betting here is in poor taste. It's the same Nigeria style – instead of acknowledging and desisting when called out for doing something wrong, the next response is, "Who are you? Do you know who I am?"

If something tastes bad, shouldn't you spit it out?

That's why I suggest you block me so you don't get such poor taste anymore.

What was the last stock pick you gave?

Aren't you seeing the flaw in your over anxious position?

Of your last 10 posts here, how many of them had stock picks, and how helpful were they?


Obviously I agree derailing is bad, but at thesame time, there's a reasonable threshold before you should start jumping.

Plus, the original post on the subject sef was to tell people who debate politics here they could put their money where their mouths are and reduce how much they debate here.


As long as you can't prove that 100% of the posts here have stock picks, then you need to relax sometimes or Just block my moniker and rest.

ghm:
There are several similar threads under the Nairaland investment section. Could you please create a separate thread for your experiment? Concentration on NSE picks is what made this place thrive and sustainable. Biko.

Calm down.
Go to my profile, you'll see a block button you could use there.


I don't think the post count are enough for your flagging yet, neither do I think you've contributed enough here to wield this policing you're trying on the thread.

Bayoonanuga:
app name please 🙏

Bayse.

But note that I'm only experimenting there, they're neither established nor regulated as far as I know. Technically, funds in your wallet may evaporate with no one coming to your rescue.


I intend checking out Signal which is a similar product by Busha. Busha is regulated by the SEC as a VASP.

InvestorHalal:
Still betting

What do you think stocks purchases are?

A certainty?

Streetinvestor2:
You don cash out..lol

It was an experiment. 10k is too lean a position to "cash out"

10890 grew to 11787 despite one very big loss though.

I'm considering opening a position on today's inflation numbers based on Coronation's forecast.

That's the difference between trading and gambling - Your bets have basis.

You also hedge with other positions should your call go south. Beginners would go all in chasing maximum gains, they often end up with maximum losses 😁

If I can sustain a 20% gain at the end of 1 week, I will judge this experiment as showing viability.

chimex38:
Won with over 511k votes..

Your other 2 prediction were right though.
Congratulations 🎊

3 of 4 predictions were right.
But those 3 were altogether 50%.
The other heavy weight of 50% was completely totally red 😁😁😁.

People really turned out. Almost 40% voter turnout.

WhizdomXX:
He got above 435,000

That was my biggest position o.
50% gone to flames.

But I used my trading experience to correct though. Currently +8.13% up overall.

megawealth01:
I don't understand this... Did he win?

He's winning so far.
87.48% of results uploaded.

My experiment is paying off .

And I don't even know much about Osun state politics.

lawani:
Any rule can hold if the market operator decides it is good for the market. You can invite private placements without being profitable and then do an IPO after showing profitability in even six months. It isn't a bad rule. Janis and institutional investors can join the private placement after checking very well while the general public go in only when profitability has been demonstrated

It's a backward and unnecessary rule, no serious market will ever push it.

You guys expect too much spoon feeding from the market when you can simply have your own rules to guide your investment decisions.


No one forces you to buy every stock listed.

If profitablity is your own gauge, then write that rule in bold fonts and hang it on your wall, instead of trying to use your fear and lack of experience to limit a market we're trying to grow.

Streetinvestor2:
Some people money go enter voice mail be dat if your money will be in thr custody

There's indeed that risk since they're neither well established or regulated.

Streetinvestor2:
Who is behind it.We have to agree on my terms and conditions concerning the election. It will have to be devoid of inec glitch and manipulated results. So we will use results from certified polling units only for declaration of the winner.And not pronouncement from wike judges that is contrary to polling units results. as they enjoy free houses now
Thr will be results transimited by third parties from polling units in 2027

Some new fintech I guess. I just read about them today, and I'm considering trading the outcome of Osun elections to test the waters.

As to your conditions, they're probably hard to provision for, I guess the positions will simply be closed once INEC declares a winner. Even Court judgements afterwards will no longer affect the trade.

For those who like to make bold statements about the next election, here's a way to put your money where your mouth is and cash out:

N4m to win 11.3m in 5 months if Peter Obi wins.

Especially now that market is consolidating.

megawealth01:
Just imagine in a moment if he mentioned the name of the special one of the people of the other religion, here for don dey on fire by now

I believe he has now learned.

SonofElElyonRet:
Offensive
Can you try that with the other one?

It's divergence of interpretation and it's okay.

He should probably apologize to people who feel offended.

Truly, Jesus has no business floating an IPO, so the mention was unnecessary.

Agbalowomeri:
I would be surprised if she is in the bus

The emotions in the post point to it.

My recommendation is people should manage 1.5% monthly in fixed income when market slows.

SonofElElyonRet:
Must you spoil your post with irreverence towards Jesus

I don't see an irreverence though.
I read it as him saying even if the most noble person (Jesus) was issuing, he would pass so long it's an IPO.

yMcy56:
If AVA cannot put the affairs of her house in order, then they're better operating as a private company.

NGX needs to develop some rules against these dealings and also amend Rules to protect the public where necessary.

I hope this SEC doesn't turn to a toothless dog eventually.
Quite some unexplained activities in many stocks since last year and since January.

Would you have been saying these if the stock was at N20 now?

Seems like you got caught in a trap cos you saw a few days of full bid and went in.

That's gambling. Maybe just take the lesson and move on.

yMcy56:
These AVA people....
I mean who does this shortly after listing?
This has been happening everyday without any tangible explanations for it....
Even if it's one WhatsApp platform that's downgrading the stock and causing panic sales in the Market, the regulators ought not to fold arms and watch investors money draining daily!!

I think SEC needs to investigate into what's going on, if they're truthful about protecting investors and sanction any culprits involved!

The fact that they're newly listed is enough to keep supporting the share price until there's stability in the market.....
I hope they're not out to scam people!

I'll try send mail to SEC on this....
If they like let them not reply

Why did you buy??

We have said time and again that trading isn't for everyone.

And certainly successful trading isn't gambling either.


Maybe you should hold for dividends.

megawealth01:
Awesome dey cruise ooooo

Another exotic car loading

Ahhh.. I think a N1bn portfolio will be a better target o 😁😁😁

Agbalowomeri:
AwesomeJ has promised to sell of @30

I shed 44% of my holdings at between 29.5 and 31.5 last week 😁😁.