₦airaland Forum

chimex38:
They didn't comply with all regulations from the start.

I posted their official listing ceremony video with NGX yesterday.

Gave timestamp you can narrow down to watch.

NGX were lenient and gave 3days after listing to comply.

The bulk of the pressure was to their brokerage house rather than Zichis since they were more experienced.

Guess they took it lightly.

Please for the purpose of my enlightenment, what was the requirement they flouted?

Is the 20% free float applicable to the growth board as well?

unite4real:
so you still think outsiders and retails were buying. You seem to not understand the manipulation that was going on.
How can a company keep gaining 10% every trading day for 1 month non stop without retails buying in.

The regulators that suspended them knows better than you and if they felt what was going on was right, they would not have suspended them.

were they not asked to release the free float for trading?

please tell me how much is the free float currently.?

Everything about Zichis was CORPORATE GREED

But the suspension isn't yet a conviction to the company, it's to allow investigation.

I would say the company is innocent until investigations reveal otherwise.

isaacosas01:
Read what u wrote again and see it doesn’t make sense. A company trading for a month with zero liquidity alone is fraudulent, I can also point a few other clear malpractices Zich engage in. This is 2026, make we nor Dey support bad thing because we Dey eat from am.

The reality is that if you were able to buy early you won't be complaining.

Mention the exact rule that Zichis broke.

If the bids are genuine, the company is exxonerated. Only if the investigation shows that they were deliberately building up fake bids(in collaboration with/through their broker(s)), only then could you blame them.

pluto09:
Is there any rules that limit the percentage gains a company can attain in a month??
Did they force anyone to buy?
If people see opportunity in the stock and they are ready to bid the price up by maximum allowed 10% daily why would I complain.

Exactly 💯💯
If NGX isn't satisfied with the outcome, let the simply adjust their rules to prevent such situations.

Based on existing rules, there's no crime in gaining any amount in month.

Itzlinda:
Do you think we are nearing local top or full bear market?

I think the market is due for a pull back.

Some of the bull runs we've been having are tilting the market off sound standings.

We should close the quarter at 185k (1% margin of error)

chimex38:
Thanks for your contribution though, but to understand you clearer,
Do you mean:
in Nigeria, company valuations are averagely 5 times risk free rate(5 x 20)
and
In New York, company Valuations are averagely 20times Risk Free-Rate (20 x 5)
?

Roughly same face value?

Yes sir.
Those multiples are what are considered fair before any premium is added based on sentiments or future potentials.

megawealth01:
GTB at 10 haaaaaaaa

Possible only if 1 USD is now worth just #100.

chimex38:
Went back to read the narrative, u thought you were referring to Ellah.
if you were referring to Zichis.
I agree then with your initial post, you are correct. Some would have bought Zichis if the price was still low and open to retail. So yes, The bashing is as a result of astronomical high price, quite far from any near term forecasted growth.

As for PRESCO and speculation,
If PRESCO was listed outside Ngx onto the international scene, it will probably be above dollar equivalent of ₦2000+ with the World "speculating" on it.

Base valuation in any market is an earnings multiple X, X being the risk free rate.

risk free rate in Nigeria is about 20%, fair valuation is 5x.

In New York, rates are around 5%, 20x valuation is fair there.

Itzlinda:
True. And they should try hard to start another round of rally. Price follows narrative mostly for speculative asset. The narrative can be sweet but if the price isn't appreciating no one will care

Yes ma'am 💯💯💯

Itzlinda:
I have seen people on social media and even Northern brothers becoming interested in Ngx. People have been posting their buy screenshot.

It is obvious the retails are here in large numbers. Is there any chance that we are close to the top?

When you see 96k deals in a single session, you know it's time to turn down the thermostat a bit.

Sustainability is key.

Now, market needs to retreat.
Asi should go back below 185k before end Q1.

pluto09:
What gave people the opportunity to manipulate the share price of NCR

Great question 💯

GeeKudi:
The rally is speculative for obvious reasons of which the veracity of their gold reserve is not part. The cause of panic sell by investors today is also extraneous.

We're saying the same thing.

pluto09:
I don't think listing by introduction is the problem.
We have had many stocks in recent times moving in price with no justifiable fundamentals.
NCR, MECURE, DEAP CAPITAL, FTN among others.
What is needed is clear rules and strict enforcement.

They should be careful with over regulation that will drain liquidity sha.

Cos there's still a situation with Airtelafri that they've failed to address. Let them not add to it.

GeeKudi:
Your assessment is not very fair.
The rally is premised on the released coorporate action signaling the commenecement of gold mining SCHEDULED TO BEGIN AT A LATER DATE. So, it is speculative at best because "what if it does not happen?" or "if there is a shift in the announced date?". It was never a case of whether the gold reserve is 'not well grounded'.
In addition to the events of Ellah failure and Zichis suspension, there was a press release by the regulators warning investors about rising prices of some stocks. There was no way a speculative rally could have survived these combos. Japaul closing in the green today is an indication that people have some level of hope that they will have their first gold pour soon as envisaged. If the MM can put in a little effort to help stabilize the price tomorrow, I see the rally resuming.

When you call it a speculative rally, aren't you exactly making my point??

KarlTom:
Now you are missing it.

The rally was not because the gold was just discovered. Rather it's the commissioning of the gold processing plant + the timeline for commercial production.

Like I said previously, I'm in it for JIJO until fundamentals change...

PS: the bolded is INFERRED resources NOT reserves

It has to be you who is missing it, unless you can point me to an announcement that the gold processing plant has been decommissioned or that the timeline has been changed.

Yoursfaithful:
Ohh now that you've been able to get some units today is no longer 3.75 again..una no go kill me with this una Analysis sef

Both prices can be hit. Maybe months apart, maybe decades apart.

KarlTom:
Why are you comparing gold with brass

I wasn't.

I'm only saying the fact that news of suspension could trip its run indicates shallowness inherent in the run.

$1.8bn of actual gold reserves would have made it a well grounded run.

96,140 deals!!!

Number of deals breaking a new high of about 95k!!!

PuristForest:
japaul is going to 12

You should put a timeframe erstwhile this sort of open projection will ultimately be true sooner or later.

Itzlinda:
Once confidence is lost, it will be difficult to get it bullish again unless there is more positive catalyst

which includes better framing of the narrative around the business.

Mpeace:
Ok. You are right!

I know, I see the numbers

last I checked 4.09 is about 18.2% less than #5.

yMcy56:
This is ELLAHLAKES as at now...
The offers has even reduced....

With the bashing here, one would have thought the offers would be more than 200m.....but the offers on ground is 26Mas can be seen in the screenshot......
*It was around 30 in the morning, reduced to 26 as at now
* Over 9M units in transactions so far

Unless some entit(ies) come to its rescue, the fear will marinate with time, and the offer size will grow similar to how volume of displaced fluid increases as sinking worsens.

yMcy56:
Na human beings be that 😁

JAPAUL that may likely close on full bid self
Some of the volume buyers are not even on queue...

Over 320M units in transaction volume as at now...

The 320M units should worry the bulls, maybe they have better convictions or a longer timeframe though. I speak as a short termer.

Mpeace:
I do not try to impress anyone, I am not a Japaul advocate neither do I have any share in the stock. I have never made any price prediction on Japaul either. I just pointed my observation, the stock opened on full bid and fell due to news of zichi suspension coupled with the SEC warning and Ellah's issues with fund raising. It didn't fall due to Ur prediction. The day you mentioned 80million units sold, the stock still went on full bid the next day. No one here can predict the market accurately at all times. It's only human to admit when you miss a prediction. Stocks don't move in straight lines. It could still go beyond the N5 you mentioned, reason some person's here have been buying the day's low. We are here to make money not to appear correct

I don't see the essence of your epistle, I said I no longer saw the stock going above #5, do you really need advanced degrees in mathematics to see that that's what's exactly playing out now?

even if it went of full bid for 10 more years after my statement? how hard is it for you to reaalize that my statement would still be valid as long as it didn't go above #5

I don't understand how you read posts.

unite4real:
what i am trying to explain is simple.

if you have say 1 million units of Dangote Refinery and you find it on full bid, will you release 100k units? doing so and finding the stock doing multiple full bids going forward makes the 100k unit earlier released looks like a loss

this is the simpler reality, when you release that 100k units, your entire position is up 10%, why would that feel like a loss compared to 0% if you don't?

Let NGX relax their rule to allow bids on AIRTEL reach 6800 (its price in LOndon), then see if NGX holders would hesitate to sell 100k units.

megawealth01:
Just imagine and many were chasing 😂

What??
Weren't you expressing regret for not buying just a couple days back

KarlTom:
Let's be very honest, ELLAH & ZICHIS suspension played a massive role.

Let's see where JAPAUL ends at cob

No doubt!

But they( the suspended and failed tickers) aren't pushing dangote cement or mtnn to full offer?

If the gold was real, it would have kept the run.

KarlTom:
I think it's just a reaction.

It could close on FB...

Not today!

emmanuelewumi:
Then the price should be fixed , NGX should know the quantity they want to sell to the public.

The stock should be sold to investors on a first come, first serve basis and no investor can buy more than a certain quantity during the period of the listing by introduction.


I definitely know that SEC and NGX will come with stricter rules

How about a simple rule of no price movement until 20% of the OS are freely floating? no need to throw out the baby cos of the badt water.