₦airaland Forum

ositadima1:
You keep going on with this fuel talk, which is actually dumb. Why don’t you look at their latest financials and do some proper research? Did you see the ₦2 trillion in borrowing? How much do you think they’re paying in interest? What about the high-tech equipment that needs replacement? Do you really think a Zenith Bank manager earns anywhere near a certified specialist engineer? You think MTNN is the main source of communication? Don’t you know they pay service providers as roaming costs, plus all the licenses they have to offset, etc.? Even before the forex wahala, MTNN’s equity in the business was about ₦300 billion — most of what you see is debt-driven.

Your case is different. The 2% monthly margin you claim to make comes with high risk. Please, since you’re hyping your gains, also let us know when you eventually hit huge losses that will force you into becoming a long-term investor.

When you don't know to ignore posts that aren't directed at you, that's the real dumbness.

Streetinvestor2:
Why was it like that when it was not listed. They whr making big profits and sending to SA.
It became listed on ngx and the result changed

Sometimes I feel like they try to reclaim that hefty $5bn fine.

They seem to make their PBT intentionally low so that while DANGOTE is paying hundreds of billions as taxes on similar revenue size, they can just pay a tiny fraction cos they see that fine as FG don already collect what's due them.

I may be wrong though.

But for running costs, no be only diesel??

Doesn't ZENITHBANK burn the same diesel to power all those ACs in hundreds of branches.

Yet they made hundreds of billions even after doing a hefty loan write off.


This MTN matter doesn't look like clear eye to me.
Being on their payroll seems way more lucrative than being on their shareholders register.

emmanuelewumi:
The industry is regulated, they can't adjust their rates based on inflation or cost of living.
It is also a capital intensive business that involves upgrade of their equipments on a regular basis


I think their shareholders fund is too meagre for the size of business they operate, it is as if they are working for the banks

I understand, it's just somehow to be seeing 140bn earnings from 2.5trn revenue. That's 5.6%

Those of us who make 1-2% margins aren't doing badly in comparison be that.

kintus:
Someone tried sharing the link to the webinar....not sure we got it.

please do you have the link?

It's strictly by invitation.

But they'll stream live on YouTube.

So just subscribed to the NGX channel on YouTube and turn on notifications maybe.

"https://youtube.com/@ngxgroup?si=YPUH0RR8_LGORU4p"

The URL isn't quite rendering to be clickable.

Maybe you should just search the channel directly on YouTube

GeneralDae:
“There is an exemption threshold raised: for sale of shares in Nigerian companies, the gross proceeds threshold is now ₦150 million in any 12 consecutive months. 
Also, gains do not exceed ₦10 million in that period may qualify under the exemption”.
“For individuals, CGT continues but will be taxed at the individual’s applicable income tax rate (“progressive tax band”) rather than a flat 10%”.

Both of these are true.


The problem with it is that most people here are far above that threshold.

For volume for instance, I am like 30 times above it.

And for profits, some people here are probably 10 - 100 times above it.


If you noticed, even though the tax ladder starts at 15%, nobody here has mentioned 15%


Cos people's annual profits are way above N25m

Streetinvestor2:
.
Unless God is wicked to allow them beyond 2027.

If they continue beyond 2027, it wouldn't mean God is wicked, it would simply either mean that Nigerians voted for them or they rigged their way in.

We shouldn't blame God for everything.

Even when His own people said the judges He chose to rule them were boring, He didn't object, He allowed them get a king.

kintus:
I previously mentioned the confusion surrounding CGT and how it is negatively affecting the market, though I was rebutted. I sincerely hope that the FG, CBN, NGX, and all other relevant bodies will come out to clearly explain how these policies will impact the market going forward. Sweeping issues under the carpet is no longer acceptable, as people are now more informed. This is my candid opinion.

There's a session at the NGX in 46+ hours.

Mr Taiwo himself is coming to clarify things.

My own is sha for him to confirm that reinvestment clause.

With that, I won't have any business at all with CGT.

GeneralDae:
I believe even MTN might rebound before the end of the month.

That company is funny joor.

You make N2.5trn in revenue, but only manage to keep N140bn as earnings, na so diesel cost

The employees are the actual ones enjoying more than the retail share holders.


Company that makes N100bn in revenue weekly, you still see them floating CPs of N100bn?

Like what's happening? For a company whose business is mostly prepaid??

They shouldn't be having any reasons for not halving their current finance cost.


I think DANGCEM is more likely to be Upgraded.

September should still manage a marginal green close sha.

DANGCEM might also get UPdated soon!

GeneralDae:
MTN just scatter everywhere today.

Funny enough it traded at some of the highest prices in weeks today.

I exited at between 419 to 429.

It didn't do above 420 for weeks until today.

When it seemed all was becoming well with it, voila 😁😁😁


We await another trip at 395 - 400.

mygee2:
Please I want an expert opinion between investment one and Morgan capital which one is the best

I use Morgan Capital because their fees are lower and their platform makes active trading smooth.

If you don't care about those, then you might opt for Investment One.

GeneralDae:
I believe so too. The only threat to that is that from October to December they have maturities and other payments to make but it would be interesting to see how they manage this. I won’t be surprised if the reserves come down for a while in this period due to this but hopefully they are still able to maintain the upward trend of both the reserves and the FX irrespective.

Although if debt maturities get settled and cause and dip in the gross reserves, the net reserves might still actually grow which would be a good thing.

GeneralDae:
Yes but you must also remember that at the time (and even till now) when people hear defending, they struggle to differentiate it from what Emiefele was doing.

So he was probably trying to give a signal that he hasn’t abandoned free market principles.

Remember how Bloomberg and Nairametrics made the topic of defending a hot one then especially with dwindling reserves at the time that dwindled by $2 Billion in one month. Maybe he didn’t communicate very clearly and that might have contributed.

Exactly.
My outlook are that they'll get reserves to $45bn soon and move exchange rate below 1400.

At 1400, if Brent stays at current levels, Dangote would cut gantry price to #770

GeneralDae:
You might be correct but I don’t think that was the major reason for the crash (might have been part of it). The FPI’s just cashed out at the time as they usually do in such situations. It appreciated way too suddenly from 1625 to 1078 in 1 month yet reserves were declining and no one was sure of net reserves. Foreign investors who bought naira at 1625, only had to buy back their dollars with 1078 (almost 600 naira gain). This in itself was not a problem but for the fact that Cardoso didn’t have the net reserves at the time to steady the ship.

Yes. His comments did send the wrong signals too. The impact might have just been 20% or less but I would say it still had an impact.


I just never liked why he made it seem like defending the currency was a bad thing.

It's basically in their mandate to guarantee the value of the legal tender or so.

megawealth01:
Let the poor breathe... Don't suffocate them

JAGABANomics

07 Corolla at 7m is already suffocating 😁😁

Streetinvestor2:
So what is this guys doing differently
Any other person could have achieved it or did better. The improvement was as result of less demand for dollars which is centered around alhaji refinery coming alive.

Anyone might have done better.
Anyone might have done worse too.

I think they did well clearing the backlogs Emefiele kept amassing, and building reserves to $43bn is also a good thing they did. The improvement in net external reserves is even more impressive compared to what they met.

So give them those.

But to not also mention Alhaji's impact would just be myopic.

However, I do agree that allowing it get to 1500 was perhaps not the best they could have done.


There was a time in April 2024 when it gained significantly to the 1000 - 1100


Then Cardoso went on an interview to say CBN had no interest whatsoever in defending the currency, and that sent a terrible signal to the market, triggering another crash.

Why would you as a CBN ever say you have no interest defending your currency, then what's your purpose? What's your benefit to the citizens, is it to be wearing suit and speaking English while your citizens lose purchasing power on a daily basis.

If you can't guarantee (defend) the value of a currency, why issue it?

Meanwhile while we pegged while having serious supply issues, this is how the currency slid:

2020 : 360
2021: 450 (25% up)
2022: 600 (33%)
2023: 750 (25%)
Say 2024 was another 33%, it would have hit
1000
2025: 1250(25%)
2026: 1660 (33%)


The currency was constantly sliding year over year even while we pegged and at the historical rate it would have hit 1660 anyways by H1 2026 still with liquidity crisis.

If these guys instead get it sub 1400 with sustained liquidity by then, then their option would obviously prove to be better.

Streetinvestor2:
How was thr issue when u could get any quantity u wanted at that 750/800

You're right.

Point is:
- it didn't crash from 480, it did from 750
- while making it crash from 750 to 1900 was very bad, it doesn't mean recovery from 1900 to 1500 isn't significant.

mikeapollo:
Thank you my brother. This shows how some of us celebrate mediocrity in this country.
Somebody took dollar exchange rate from N480 to N1,550, and now some people want us to celebrate because it is now N1,490 or so.

My comment is not in specific reference to General ooo, just my general observation of how some of us do.

Dollar was at 750 not 480.

It crashed to 1900, that doesn't change the fact that gaining from 1900 to 1500 is significant, it just simply doesn't change that fact


Since I've been following the currency. This is the first time it's worth significantly more in a given year than the previous year.

The 750 wasn't gonna be the limit even if the currency wasn't floated.

Cos we pegged for years, yet it crashed steadily from 360 to 750, with liquidity drying up.

Banks went from allowing up to $3000 per quarter on naira cards, to $20 a month and then ultimately they couldn't even afford the $20 anymore.

Today, we're getting $4000.


You guys make it seem like the currency was all good at 750 with no issues at all. And nobody should even mention 480 cos it never traded at that price for any real user.

ositadima1:
Same argument as before: the MPR was below 20% for years before this administration came in and pushed it to 27.5%. Now they’ve reduced it by just 0.5%—not even up to 1%—and some people are jubilating. It’s almost as if General is Cardoso’s brother.

Look at the assymetric corridor as mentioned.

It's effectively a 300 bps cut.

If you don't think that's significant from a single meeting, you're probably trading in a theoretical world.

GeneralDae:
50 bps cut. Cardoso, na man you be.

@awesomeJ you were spot on.

Thank you 😁😁

We await another one in November.

GeneralDae:
I think what CBN is also considering is FAAC. This FAAC has always been an issue to the CBN even from the time of Soludo but they tame it via money instruments.

We are now sharing FAAC of over 2 trillion naira every month and a lot of these settle in banks because lots of state Governors use private banks unlike the FG who uses CBN.

The 50% CRR is to absorb this monthly until our growth rate becomes good enough to absorb the flow and inflation gets below 10%. We are coming from an era where we printed 23 trillion naira and now we have increased naira FAAC almost fourfold.

The CBN needs to keep removing as much naira from the system and destroying them (ie not redeploying them to the system by giving them to FG to spend again).

Taiwo Oyedele has advised we share FAAC daily to solve this problem because it’s always been an headache to CBN but even more with increased FAAC.

I believe the 50% would be reduced to 25% soon but I get your point that if we are applying 50% CRR then we don’t need necessarily high interest rates to control money supply and inflation.

Exactly sir 😁

Agbalowomeri:
In higher rate environment, the banks just pack money put inside treasury bill and siddon look. With rate cuts they will gradually need to hustle more to expand their loan book.

But Emefiele's LDR policy hasn't been squashed now has it?

650 bps cut with CRR at 35% helps both the economy and the banks.

Cheersman:
Please where's the registration Link for this your recommended webinar Sir?

It's strictly by invitation to join the Zoom.

But we'll get watch only access (no privilege to ask questions) via the YouTube Livestream.

Just subscribe to NGX 's channel on YouTube.

Or if you know an insider, you can ask for the Zoom invite.

Agbalowomeri:
But I am only stating empirical fact

Yes sir 😁

You might want to block your calendar.
They'll stream on YouTube

unite4real:
It is not so straight forward.

the banks are holding so much bonds. A lower rate means higher value of those bonds and they may begin to trade them.
there will also be increased lending with less defaults and impairments

And some corporates that have swapped credit lines for CPs may revert.


But Agba 's mind is in other places 😀😀😀
He views everything from the lens of how GTB can hit N18 for him to buy.

GeneralDae:
If they don’t cut tomorrow then they would cut at the next meeting. I suspect a 25 bps cut but I wouldn’t be surprised if they hold.

I know they're being overly conservative too.
But they should really just do 150bps cut.

Their view looks too one-sided.

Like Trump argues, if you cut and things goes haywire(highly unlikely) you can always rehike in November na.