₦airaland Forum

helinues:
The headline shouldn't have included to pray for Nigeria in Saudi.

Is that how the Saudi people have been coming to Nigeria to pray for their economy to be better?

Lol.. U sef shock--a whole defender of rubbish like u cannot defend this

It is not good for the government's accounts not the country's economy !!! Let's get that straight
A petrol price that is stifling some businesses is what you are saying is good for the economy ? NOT AT ALL!

Mccullum:
It's all about campaign strategy, politicians are liars.

Subsidy is good for the citizens, meanwhile it's not good for the country's economy.

This was the reason all opposition presidential candidates lobbying for votes through it, meanwhile, they're deceiving Nigerian populace, they cannot remove it.

Whatever samsung phone, ensure it has gorrila glass victus

wunmi590:


Good evening N'lander,

Wify called me this morning that her samsung just went blank, at least she has used it for 2years.

I want to get her another phone, kindly suggest which of the Samsung I should get her.

Your contribution is highly needed and urgent, as I intend to buy between tomorrow and thursday..

Mostly a 5G phone

@mod

Even in France, UK and other developed & market driven economies, consumption subsidies are not eliminated... they are applied from time to time as need be..

Remember in Dec 2025 when petrol was N740, it was because crude was selling around $60 per barrel.. Interestingly, the budget bench mark is $60/ barrel.

If d govt was going to subsidize to N500, subsidy becomes N250/liter.. per day becomes 50million liters × N250 =N12.5bn.... Per year, this figure becomes N4.5tn or N5tn 5tn is less than 10% of the budget. So 5tn is the opportunity cost forgone in this case
If crude price goes up, the govt doesn't spend extra cost on subsidy, it simply has less surplus.
N500 petrol price cushions things and actually makes the economy more active.. So the question then is: is less than 7% too much a sacrifice for the survival of the masses?

Lol@ portal transportation...
Joker of a clown

TheStoriesOfMan:
I've registered.

Mine is on early stages of portal transportation. With this mode of transportation, I can go from Sokoto to Lagos in two minutes.

With this, logistics cost will be low, maintenance will be low, goods/services will be delivered faster/safer and other benefits.

Another of my project is dark and shady, but the Nigerian government will like it. I want to adopt China CCP's method of digital surveillance where all schools, homes, offices, bars, streets and all corners of this countries will be forced to install CCTV cameras. With this,crime can be curbed, perpetrators can be tracked and punished and the country will be insecurity-free.

How unserious can u be with ur life to be reduced to this point accepting tokens to shout about a failed party

helinues:
Apc are doing aggressive campaign even upon the opposition accusing them of planning to rig the election, while the same opposition have been chasing Apc campaigners shadow.

How unserious can they be

But why would my friend @nairalanda1 block me?
What have I done to deserve that?

Wives must learn to see their husbands' mums, parents as theirs... hw can a woman be so comfortable snatching a phone meant for her mother in law for her self and she already has a phone.. that is very unkind, and very disrespectful of an elderly person even if the mama doesn't know about it.
The husband of course needs to be forbearing. But he must collect that phone and give to his mum.. His mother bore him and took care of him in the past.. He must honour her and take care of her.. He should ask his wife to lend him the money back and collect all the money back from her.. then he can release only 1 or 2m back to her.. she needs to start very small..she definitely should have informed u b4 she lent or gave her friend that money

No.. at least not now.. let it start trading first.

adeoyekay:
Someone should guide please is it advisable to purchase

Car costs are in about 5 parts:
Fuelling cost
Maintenance cost
Insurance and car papers
Cleaning, parking & traffic fines
Depreciation cost

Depreciation cost is d difference in d price u buy the car and the price u can sell it even if the car is in d same condition.

For fueling at current petrol price(N1,300), a car user driving a 2.4L car some 40km, daily 5 days a week can expect to spend 200-250k on fuel every month. That's about 3M on fuel every year.
And even at a fuel price of N900, u will still spend more than N150k per month.

Maintenance cost can range from 400k on d low side to 1.5M per annum for an over 10yo Japanese car.

Comprehensive insurance is 3-5% per annum of the value of the car.. car paper renewals + 3rd party insurance is less than 50k per annum.

Car cleaning, parking fees and traffic fines vary widely and should be negligible compared to other costs when totalled for the year

U this boy wey dey suppose exile go north pole

Sonofgod1990:
I remembered when I was in Lagos I spent about 300,000 daily on Lagos road

And that's how u become a mean hearted, insensitive leader, my friend..
This is why intelligence alone is not enough for a leader.. Compassion, kindness, care and empathy are even more important characteristics of a leader that will serve well.

nairalanda1:
And it is hard truth that you have to buy stuff at market price , son.

You don't have to cry and raise hell about something that is basic rules of economics one

The human called nairalanda1 will not agree that we the citizens deserve NOT to buy at intl market price..

bestofnollywood:
https://applesbite.com/petrol-can-sell-for-n605-litre-subsidy-accounting-magic-olawepo-hashim/

3.14tn for 2.5yrs.. are u saying that with a budget of 54tn, 1.2, even 1.5tn is too much to spend on something as important as power subsidy ?

LibertyRep:
How about Dollar subsidy so that we can go back to the dark era of arbitrage?

He'd soon promise to release the prisoner in Sokoto.

@nedekid: he is correct... back in d 70s.. there was d newly discovered oil boom.. Gowon said spending the money was d problem...it was a lot of new money for the country at the time.. On top of that, like nairalanda1 said, d number of students to be subsidized were not much. Even through d 90s & early 2000s which i think is d timeline u are describing, there were still not so many students in universities. Now, govt has very poor revenue compared to our 220M population and we have far much more students in govt universities...
Yes there is a lot of corruption, but even without d corruption, Nigeria is currently poor.


U said , education should be free to any level. I think it's only primary & secondary that should be free as a matter of right. Tertiary education should be paid for with govt intervening through scholarships for very brilliant but indigent students.. Although, maybe the economy would need to get better first before d pay for tertiary education policy is introduced.

I like how they are pumelling u for ur 'callous' anti subsidiness.. U deserve it.
Even though u are totally correct.. funding a whole university must come from student cash, debt or govt funds of which d govt doesn't have enough... d students too don't have enough... Nigeria is currently a poor country and pple don't even realize.. sitting 4pple on a row in public transport are signs of poverty but nobody even realizes cos they are used to that..
The way out like u said is massive local production - starting with import substitution.. a reasonable govt will aggressively motivate and create d enabling environment for local production..

But pls let them injure u for this ur subsidy disdain.. u say it too callouslly.. For God's sake, sometimes u might need to compromise on subsidy so that d people can even survive d moment. Even if there is no way out, u should communicate with empathy.. imagine ursef in d very poor pple's shoes..

nairalanda1:
yes,because universities in Nigeria are poorly funded.

University Na money.chopper. In other countries they take massive loans to pay the fees there. Loans that some of them will never ever be able to pay back.

It's unfortunate, but unless government is ready to raise revenue in the short term by massive taxation or long term by making Nigeria have an economy based on manufacturing things for export and taxation, our universities would still be struggling for funds.

Nigeria is a poor country, but world class universities cost a lot of money.

With the yam case, there is NO LOSS!! How is there loss? Loss is when selling price is lower than cost price. The house govt produced at N35 and sold to house members at N45- is that not profit ? even though profit is not as much as would have been if they had sold at market selling price of N90.. but there was no LOSS. Let's get that very clear!!!

nairalanda1:
It is, because the refinery still has to make a profit for reasons I outlined earlier.

The problem with subsides , again, is that the country can budget x amount for subsidy ,.and when oil prices push up subsidy costs at the end of the day, money has to be borrowed to pay the subsidy costs otherwise the refinery would lose money and the consequences of losing money come into play

Also your analogy about yams is contingent on the farmer having enough funds to cover the losses arising from the discount he has given his family members. Companies that are giving discounts in my opinion have the cash to cover the losses from the discounts . Otherwise , it would be a loss on the books which is going to impact their efficient running.

And that's the problem with subsides on fuel. You have a situation where the government is burdened by past debts from the same subsidy , where the funding from oil money is so volatile due to rising and falling oil prices ( which makes funding of the subsidy extremely problematic, partly why borrowing commences, also funding from other sources like tax is difficult as most Nigerians work in the informal sector and have difficulty paying income tax), and where borrowing is the result of all the above to fund the budget. And on top of that you want to add a subsidy?

Any government that takes over from this one , if they do that, it's a one way trip to Sri Lanka.

P.s: Iran's debt is not very low It was 130 billion dollars as at 2024. Nigeria is still around 117 billion dollars. Per capita , Iran has a higher debt burden per person too.

Iran has tried a partial subsidy removal in 2019., but it led to riots . Since then the government has been scared to remove subsides.

Iran also has a deficit of 15 million liters of fuel supplied. This is before the invasion by the USA and Israel. Production issues brought about by debt

And then smuggling


And at the end, it impacts the same Iranian household .

If you think that debt induced by subsidy is good for households in Iran, then you should stop complaining about debt and borrowing induced by that debt in Nigeria and praise your beloved leader Tinubu. ( lol). Because our debt was mainly subsidy induced and it is forcing the government to borrow at record levels.

Subsides don't end well.

No 7 point: isn't that something? That definitely goes a long way for the avg household

No 4 is the actual issue which is why I said the govt should find a clean and corruption free way of having Nigerians buy petrol with a crude cost element that is not at intl price but at production cost

No 2: their external debt which is the important one is very low

U have still not addressed my direct point which is
Is it really a subsidy for Nigerian citizens to buy petrol with crude cost element at production cost rather that at international price?

U produce yam in your backyard for N35.. Market selling price of yam is N90. Is it subsidy if u ask members of ur household to buy at N45? Do u call that subsidy? Isn't that even grammatically wrong?

nairalanda1:
1. Iran has a domestic industry that builds and makes refinery components in country. Including the big bits of equipment. Helps a bit with costs . They have even helped a bit trying to revive Venezuela domestic refining. They can't do much oversee tho, US sanctions.

2. Also Iran has a massive debt caused in part by the subsidy they have. Attempts to remove it have been met with threats of protests so the government struggles.

3. It's like you have no response to the points I raised in my posts after all, that a refinery cannot operate on just production costs and markups. You've run away from that having been defeated and changed rhe goalposts. Very funny.

4. Back to Iran. Iran loses billions yearly from massive smuggling to Pakistan and Afghanistan.. ( All jazzera recently did a documentary on the matter. And it is mostly men on motorcycles , with jerrycans.)

5. Cement prices are high in Nigeria because roads are bad, railways are non existent and the electricity sector is stifled by subsidies kept in place by Tinubu. Result is a rising cost of production . Had your government been good at raising revenue and had they removed subsidies on electricity to make it profitable , the costs would have been reduced drastically.

Again it boils down to simple economics really . Profitability is good for any business and keeps national debt down.

7. Iranian subsidy on fuel only applies to 150 liters of fuel monthly. Once that quota is passed, a market reflective tarrif of sorts is in force.

So hw are Iranians able to buy a liter at 3cents... at $90 per barrel, a liter should be at least 55 cents without refining cost..

So u r still not getting it. If the govt refineries were functioning and NNPC supplied them crude, the cost of the petrol that comes out will be crude production cost (avg $35) + refining costs + logistics... all translated to naira..

Right now our cost element for a N1,300 fuel consists of intl crude price ($90) + refining cost + logistics

Compare $35 cost element to $90 per barrel cost element is what I'm saying-- why is the govt selling to its citizens at int'l oil price and not production cost?

nairalanda1:
Just to add to what I have said, here is why dangote can't operate the way you and your pals want it to.

The Reality of Private Refining

Market-Driven Pricing: Private refineries are price takers, not price makers. They cannot simply dictate a price based on their costs plus a markup. Instead, they must sell at the prevailing global or regional market price (driven by supply and demand)

.The "Crack Spread" Trap: The difference between the price of crude oil and the price of refined products (like gasoline and diesel) is called the crack spread. This spread shrinks and expands constantly based on market forces completely outside the refinery's control. If the market crack spread falls below the refinery's internal baseline markup, the refinery loses money on every barrel it processes.

Capital Reinvestment: A private refinery must constantly reinvest millions of dollars into regulatory compliance (e.g., meeting stricter low-sulfur fuel mandates) and equipment upgrades. A survival-only markup provides no capital for these mandatory investments.

Borderline evil for not considering hw hard things are for the masses...


And what exactly is subsidy ? You are selling to dangote at intl oil price and he sells to us at that price with refining mark up + profit.. Why can't d govt create a tidy, non corrupt system of selling to nigerians at production price + refining markup + profit ? How are Iranians able to buy a liter at about 3 cents? It is cos they are given an intl price cost element !!

Cost of crude production in nigeria is avg $35. Intl price is $90. Find a clean, non corrupt system of selling what we consume to dangote at $45 and price comes down by about half.

nairalanda1:
I'm not demonizing subsidy. I'm telling ya that the subsidy you guys want is impossible on the earnings we have, because there is nothing government can do about the cost of production. Attempts by government to do that has always led to massive debt.

Maybe f we were producing something like 80 million bpd of crude, and oil somehow was at 100 dollars per barrel, we can afford a subsidy, but we cannot.

Besides, what's wicked in saying that a business or industry needs to make a profit to operate well? It;s kind of something you guys learn in primary school, so either you just let school go through you, or you just crammed.

Best we can do now is reactivate NNPC's pipeline system, and attach dangote refinery to it, and maybe it may reduce the price of transporting fuel and the price of fuel. ALso, railways. But you got to sell fuel at a profit. We don't make any of the stuff that we use in refining and transporting fuel, meaning that's a massive expense, plus the expense we have to do with oil prices.

I'm just being realistic man. If tinubu loses election tomorrow, I would be glad. But if anyone brings back subsidy, knowing what we are going through right now as a result of keeping subsidy for decades, and knowing it would have been worse if we had not gotten the debt forgiven in 2005, it would be a disaster.

You can still call me evil though.

Yes non production is the problem.. but stop demonizing subsidy every time u open ur "wicked" mouth.. subsidy and high local production can definitely co exist peacefully.. ur intelligent brain can surely figure that out..

nairalanda1:
Once upon a time, people were complaining about how N50 had become useless....

(This is not meant to support any useless government but to tell you why they are useless, especially this tinubu one. If you call me a tinubu supporter after reading this, that means you know you have lost the argument, and therefore...lol).

In 1983, one could pay a carpenter N50 AND get a nice bed. By 1996, N50 was what you paid someone hawking sugarcane for a goodly ammmount of the stuff.

In 1981, one could pay N90 and get a whole cow. By 1991...(let's just say pricing a cow for N90 then would have led to people calling an ambulance for you...to take you to Aro, one way trip.).

The problem is simple. Nigeria is not a producing economy. And for decades we were sabotaging our production ability by pretending, via subsidues, that electricity and refined products were cheaper than they really should be. We were even importing things and paying a subsidy for them...essenco...

And we were not prioritising industries that could export product. No, we imported all we need to keep things cheap, and suffocated our domestic industries

And eventually, we even started borrowing to live the high life once oil prices went down.

But as you can see, decades of doing that is why 1 million is useless in the scheme of things today.

Many of you are calling for government to keep subsides on electricity or return them on petrol. Many of you also want the government to put subsides on food even, because the role of a government for most nigerians is not to make our country more productive, it is to ease the suffering of the masses...even if it means borrowing to do so.

The result is that low forex means the value of the naira goes down and down and down.

In 2012 for ecample, we had a choice to remove subsidy...but we said no. The result, as aptly put by a nairalander in 2016 was this



Imagine what would have happened if we removed subsides on electricity and petrol in say 1980. Nigeria won';t have been developed, but it would have had more savings and a better level of life compared to keeping subsidy....and a stronger naira.


We got to stop looking at things from 'we must survive' and start looking at things long term. When we do that, naira would improve.

U this joker.. so what has he now delivered in almost 4 years?

ThinkSmarter:
There are women that were once sexually active (promiscuous) that will make better wife more than some less sexually active women.
Same way, there are men that will make better husbands or leaders despite their criminal pasts.
There are many Indian hemp smokers cum womanisers that will make better better husbands than non smokers and non womanisers.
Look around you.
Intelligent people are more curious and tend to experiment with drugs, sex, machines and electronics faster than less intelligent people.
Tinubu is smart and his reforms are necessary for socioeconomic development of Nigeria.
He may steal some money but he will deliver.
Every politicians steals, don't be deceived by those forming saint.
Atiku is desperate like a sex starved man making promises to a woman.
I'm not not a politician.
And I am from South East.
Nigeria will be great, the journey just began.
Ndewonu.

What would u have wanted?

nairalanda1:
HAHAHAHA, not as i wanted..

From the early days, the relationship parameters were clear. I child, they parent. And they made it clear that they were not my friends, and that I was expected to obey them, do well in school, and always come home when they wanted me to come home, and be always as neat as i was when I left their house.

Anyway, thank God for them, at least, i didn't turn out awful.

U these comical characters... u didn't compare the most important index-- purchasing power b4 and after of the masses

U didn't compare GDP($) b4 and after.

seunmsg:
This is the positive trajectory of our economy that these empty and power by hungry hyenas (Peter Obi and Atiku) want to come and destroy. We shall do everything position to ensure these gains are sustained for the benefit of Nigerians.

And what's the difference

bassdow:
https://www.stanbicibtcfundsmanagement.com/invest-now-l8yyj3l8

imagine say you configure am to auto deduct a particular amount every month from your salary into Mutual funds, come leave am make e dey compound. By retirement, na continuous salary be that.

These retirement companies go deduct workers money, talk say na saving for retirement BUT dem go ignore fact say currency dey deValue + depreciate

If you want tomorrow Jesus way, start by getting born again.. because even though u grow up going to church or reading the Bible, u only become a Christian when u are born again

Murciano:
I understand your point. But there are a lot of religions and all people think they believe in the correct one. There are even people who are able to kill and die for their religion, for example extremist muslims.

My religion influence is cristianism. Jesus was against hypocresy and rigid structure in religion. He only acted helping others, specially margin people. So, if cristian God exist, I more or less follow Jesus way. More than some people who only goes to church.

lawani:
The lenders feared that the country might break up and if someone is owing you 50 billion dollars at less than ten percent per annum and is offering you a lump sum of 25 billion dollars to write off the debt, it is not really a bad deal if you are not certain the person would be able to pay in the long run

Lol.. give credit to who credit is due.. if they did not negotiate, they won't get debt relief.. if only u know d amt of work madam NOI and d govt as a whole put into making that happen, u won't be here trying to trivialize hard work..

Lol@ enough attention..where is the electricity to charge them...where are the charge stations? And who knows their durability ?

Pootle:
did you snap with a 2006 nokia xpress music? picture quality is very poor.

i am obsessed about EV, EVs are the future and am surprised nigerians are not giving it enough attention.

leapmotor T03 has a very good review

franchasng:
I know all these but sometimes you forget about protocols and lay some shîits to rest once and for all, Iran needs to be used as an example to teach other Muslim terrorists life lessons

And this is why u are buying petrol at over 1,300 today... there are consequences.. in trying to deal with threats, u have to take care not to cause other problems.. that's why u have research tanks, intelligence agencies etc...
Let me tell u for free it was a senseless war... the only reason Trump went in is because CIA led him to believe a regime change will happen once the Supreme leader and top IRGC guys are eliminated.. forgetting iran is not Libya or Syria

U have come again with ds ur mathematics. Why would we hav to produce 50mbpd to be Abe to afford a subsidy..
We consume about 0.4mbpd and produce crude of about 1.5mbpd... Now, the crude price increase means more revenue on the 1.5mpd.. So hw is it mathematically impossible to forgo that revenue increase on just 0.4mbpd(maybe a little higher than that) of crude ? Just sell 400-600k barrels at the old price to dang refinery and the FG loses nothing wrt to revenue b4 the war.
However, d subsidy might be a problem not cos of d direct maths but cos u will then have more smuggling into neighboring countries increasing the volume FG will sell to dangref or causing scarcity in the country as a lot of petrol will find it's way to Togo that will sell there at higher price
The problem is simply corruption

nairalanda1:
We dont produce enough crude per captia to be able to sustain a subsidy on crude like Libya.

That's why subsides for over 50 years helped our debt grow massively. If it wasn't for the debt forgiveness we got in 2005, it would be around 400 trillion naira by now.

For Nigeria to earn enough from crude to pay for a decent enough subsidy without any need to resort to taxation, we may have to be producing 50 million barrels of crude per day, with the crude being at 100 dollars or more per barrel.

Instead we produce crude at the very low level of 1.5-1.7 m bpd . It is the same as LIbya, but we have 237 million people, and they got 8 million people.

That means we do not have the income from crude to pay for a subsidy AND keep the refineries well running.

We were warned in 1993. Nigerians said no, and they said no again in 2003, 2005, and in 2011. Led by our current and past president, they said No. The result...we sacrificed refinery maintenance and upgrades to help pay for subsidy....since no government wants to levy something like a flat income tax on all NIgerians to pay for suibsidy, or do something like forcing industrialization which would have provided the kind of income we needed.

Even now, to pay for subsides for this year alone, we need something like 38-52 trillion naira (government estimate) at least 30 trillion naira (my estimate) which comes from a budget of 55 trillion naira, half of which is to be funded by borrowing. And we still have to service a debt of 150 trillion naira and growing.

We just don't have the crude revenue to pay for subsides. You can call me a tinubu supporter for saying that, and I know I am not, but it is what it is, even if we remove corruption or even if we cut excess government spending.

And any subsidy spending would worsen the debt, which is why that 7.1 trilluon tinubu spent in 2024 made matters worse. Money taken from the treasury, that would be replaced by more loans.

Just cos Japanese cars now hold sway doesn't mean Chinese cars too will in d future... that's a deduction error.. what amade Japanese cars loveable now is their high reliability, they are more reliable that the European cars.. what will Chinese cars bring to the table that will make them a darling of the markets ?
It can't be only price or aesthetics!! No pple want something that won't give them constant problems, will last long and retain gud financial value!!!

Greenodds:
We are saying the same thing. I am just adding that the way Chinese car brands are going it's only going to be a matter of time before some people will genuinely choose them over all these cars you mentioned.

This is exactly what happened to Japanese cars, just a while ago, in the 80s, nobody regarded Japanese cars, back then, European cars held sway. People looked at Japanese cars the way the looked at Chinese cars today. You would hardly see anyone driving a Toyota back then. It was peugots, mercedes, Volvo, fiat etc. but with time and consistency people realised it was much more value for their money. That's what is going on with Chinese cars today. It's only a matter of time.