₦airaland Forum

ositadima1:
Learn this today: You gain more from arguments than from one-sided dialogue. BBM is good, no doubt, but like all of us, he has room for improvement—which I pointed out clearly. He gets some things right and misses others. His predictions could be improved through backtesting and greater specificity. If you’re interested, you can take on that assignment: gather all his predictions, compare them with the corresponding data at the time, and see if they would have resulted in a huge profit or small profit. It’s not difficult, just time-consuming.

As for Agba, he predicted a market crash that never happened. What if you had followed his advice and offloaded all your stocks in anticipation? You would have missed these gains.

Please stop being emotional and sentimental—try to analyze these things critically. An argument isn’t meant to shut you up; it’s simply an exchange of opposing views. I understand that in your culture, arguments may have negative connotations, but how is that my fault?

Thank you for your comments. I read all 3. I appreciate the politeness and you taking your time to carefully address all that you addressed. I may not be able to quote Rabbi's posts, but I was referring to his excellent forecasts about NGX; I acknowledge your angle.

I'm not being emotional. I enjoy reading opinions, counter-views, arguments, experience and all informative posts on here, just like many people. I have quoted your brilliant posts in the past, so I learn from them.

It is entertaining and informing to listen to two people argue about which is better between Honda and Toyota, but the moment either debater focuses on driving home the point that the other camp is blind or not knowledgeable, the argument becomes personal and distasteful.

An adage says: Ogbon o'logbon ni kii je ki a pe agbalagba ni were. Drops of knowledge from each one of us here will make an ocean of knowledge that benefits us rather than a reason for calling an outsider an ignorant fellow.

Seeking knowledge with all our youthful time and energy is commendable, respectable and profitable. Anyone who believes Bode Thomas' biography will be reminded to always pray for wisdom.

Capitas7:
You're a very intelligent young man, my brother; your knowledge base and learning strides are inspiring. But sincerely, some of the "calling people out" might not be necessary.
predictions.....

The predictions of BullBearMkt together with FXuser (forefathers of TA on this thread) are respected with a lot to learn from. You have countered BBM's charts interpretation a number of times.

Agbalowomeri jokes a lot, but for those who read in-between the lines, there's a lot to learn from him. You again know your reasons for countering his use of TA tools, even if some of us don't see why.

To argue against another's view often shows objectivity and is respectable. But faulting people's knowledge and experience is often not kind.

ositadima1:
Presco - 70%. That’s my progress so far; I have no reason to lie, unlike some people here.

Now, think with me—Pa Emma has been praising Presco since late last year, around November. Yet, despite all the hype, Presco has only gained about 70%. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a solid stock, which is why I entered early in the year after selling Dangote Sugar. But the one he vehemently dismissed? It did over 13 baggers—13, not 3, but 13! Oando!

What I’m saying is, the so-called gurus aren’t always right. Don’t let their opinions limit you, especially when they call a stock worthless. Just because you had a bad experience doesn’t mean history will repeat itself. And failing to manage your affairs properly doesn’t mean everyone else will fail the same way. That’s simply not true.

You're a very intelligent young man, my brother; your knowledge base and learning strides are inspiring. But sincerely, some of the "calling people out" might not be necessary.

I bought this same Presco when OGG first compared it to Okomu about 2+years ago at around N89 to N100. Encouragements including Pa Emma's posts motivated averaging up multiple folds, and BE stays at N238. You'll remember how you countered OGG's views countless times. Now, you're on PA Emma's matter.

Today's NGX ASI was predicted by RabbiDoracle just 2 years ago. You led the counter arguments against his predictions.

Meerahbel:
Pa Emma should write a book. I am also greatful to the WhatsApp group they created that I joined as a guest here some years back. There I met Dr Ajibola (who's podcast has greatly helped me), Ukay and the MD of Yochaa who gave me my first 1k for for using their app. The rest they say is history.

I agree with you. He has written a living book through this platform though. You have a nice investing story. I'm happy for you for being that fortunate. I've read two books recommended by Dr. Awo, and they are great too

emmanuelewumi:
I found out that 95% of the gifters are investors. I don't know why, probably investors are more appreciative than traders


That is a discussion for another day

As a grateful student of your "stocks investing" and life lessons" school, I'd like to mention these:
1. For those of us whose only platform is Nairaland, it is difficult to ask PA Emma for personal details (account numbers included) for obvious security reasons. Example: I shared here about how you shared your phone contacts with me a little over a decade ago when I was fresh out of NYSC starting my investment journey, and we spoke for over 10 minutes on the phone. That was you welcoming a stranger. Today, newcomers cannot access you through DM's - you're still a welcoming mentor, but Nigeria changed your security measures (aiye ti le).

2. Appreciation to some of us includes going to read the books you suggest, coming back to show how we've grown, and referencing your wise and selfless contributions. For instance, one might consider quoting your past analyses to give credits (unofficial intellectual property) to you - the true rewards for a teacher is seeing students grow.

Long story to defend we audio grateful persons, yet not denying that not everyone appreciates selflessness. We appreciate you and other great investors and traders here sir! Can't mention the names in the endless list of FA and TA Ogas, but we know you all!

Capitas7:
I sold down my DANGSUGAR to 1000 units (placeholding insignificant units) for ease of rejoining its train in the future. BE was less than N17+, and I've been selling in tranches (earlier sales at N54, N40+) to increase holdings in Access, Presco and most recently UBA.
For an investor (to whom dividends are a compounding factor), the opportunity cost of holding Dangote sugar will become apparent when it is dividends season and companies with good payout ratios enjoy market reaction as a bonus.

Emotional investing is one great enemy. It is good to read that many investors respect and trust Mr Aliko Dangote, and I do too. But the integrity of a man (if true) should be separated from the real situation of his ventures when reality signals stress. Dividends go plenty to buy back when the coast is clear.

Even though I missed selling at N80 in January 2024 to make >4x my initial capital, the more painful loss was that Naira value moved from around N800-N900 to about N1300-N1400 within the same period.
#TimeValueOfMoney
#RealValueOfMoney

I sold down my DANGSUGAR to 1000 units (placeholding insignificant units) for ease of rejoining its train in the future. BE was less than N17+, and I've been selling in tranches (earlier sales at N54, N40+) to increase holdings in Access, Presco and most recently UBA.
For an investor (to whom dividends are a compounding factor), the opportunity cost of holding Dangote sugar will become apparent when it is dividends season and companies with good payout ratios enjoy market reaction as a bonus.

toyeoye:
Thanks for pointing this out! Curious to know if you also checked the website at the time and confirmed this discrepancy.
Everything seems fine on my end, but I'll double-check!

You have created a fantastic product/resource here! And your energy is inspiring! You are doing an amazing job handling feedbacks and comments. All the best!

Konquest:
Where to invest in Nigeria in 2025!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPA8vnTelzA
Nairametrics • Jan 2025 13:31

Thank you for sharing this.
It is good to hear from a respected economist that the Naira might be stable in 2025. Nothing erodes a portfolio gain more than that enemy (currency instability), not even inflation.

Meristem projects a target price of N82 for Transcorp and N30 for UCAP. Good to see that! With the many educated projections by respected fellows here, 2025 might not be a year to be too fearful or too greedy.
But it might be the beginning of the end of status quo ~10-15% dividend yield from most companies.
In agreement with @Ositadima's recent argument about new prices reflecting revaluation of companies rather than a bull, capital appreciation will obviously be multiples of dividends this year. Hopefully the Naira stays strong for a long time - the worst enemy of portfolio value

essentialone1:
There seems to be a rising trend in Nigerian companies to outdo one another in how big their end of the year party is ....
.......
Personally, I feel some of these companies should listen to their staff and try some compensation. Heck, it won't be a bad idea if you pay a 13th month salary instead. Pay staff on the 23rd of December then pay again on the 10th of January so the staff can be sure of not having empty pockets in January while they work.

Gone are the days when companies share foodstuff and sometimes live animals to staff in appreciation of their hard work all year round or have an award night. Now, it is about who can call the biggest artiste and pull off the biggest show which is quite unfortunate...

Post trimmed to save space.

This is a very valid thought! It is similar to public office holders buying new bulletproof cars and new residences when sworn into offices. A lot of wastages that could touch lives are being wasted just for "pepper dem" and "showoff" purposes. Kudos to the individuals who make it an obligation to touch lives with their tokens. Many in diaspora just offset projects at home because they want to appreciate the skills and hardwork of the suffering lots, and not because the multimillion Naira projects particularly qualify as the best use of their money. We have a long way to go as a society that seeks to alleviate poverty.

Willie2015:
N10
For where ...
Nobody wan sell...
N20 by Dec
N25 By April

A Nov 14, 2024 post about UCAP.
I usually like to read the opinions of this boss and Pluto09.
There's a lot to learn from the knowledge and experience of people who have mastered the arts of this business.

currentprice:
last year suggestion done and dusted na....

new suggestion is the fucus now

100%.

People like me are on the lookout for your next suggestions sir!

More importantly, I am learning from you and your likes, how to fish.

Merry Christmas!

currentprice:
if u miss Nahco , dont miss Dangote sugar. others are Wapco, Afripud , vitafoam , uba/access.

if u taken action on DS as at Monday by today u must have been 5% up. the stock will cross 20 soon to keep going.

my opinion though

April 26, 2023 post. Great suggested stocks!

Afriprud struggled to do N10 during the Nov/Dec 2023 bull, but is now moving without stopping. There's a lot to be known.

emmanuelewumi:
I see them doing well, going forward. They are planning to diversify into other businesses

Let us give them another 2 years

Pa Emma's response 2 years ago to a question about Afriprud.

Truly, the stock price movements lately is indicating that something is in the brew. But what exactly? It'd be good to know.

peperempe:
Uncle T and his gang know what they are doing. Don't forget that he said he will use all his interim dividend to buy the RI. In my opinion, he and his gang would wish small shareholders don't claim their rights so that he and his gang can accumulate more.

💯 my thoughts too.

It reminds me of a friend's description of how government ministries posts job openings for graduates to apply (and sometimes even pay like the 2013 N1000 per NIS applicant). On the backend, the positions had been filled weeks or months before the adverts. Presidency list, governors' lists, etc. A common citizen would be thinking their degrees and expertise are in demand by their government, but they don't really exist as anything more than a common man in the scheme of things.

That rights issues of banks are overpriced is becoming a trending opinion among common shareholders. And when you start receiving mails and calls soliciting for taking up your rights units, it makes you feel like you're a significant figure in the scheme of things. Then when the outcome shows that the RI was oversubscribed overnight, everyone's confused. Access started this trend, and I don't think UBA's will be unsuccessful.

The questions are:
1. Are common shareholders (with an exemption of the movers and shakers) actually a part of the RI game?

2. Have the bigwigs not discounted the reactions of shareholders when deciding listing prices?

Wondering what the effects of the USA election results on global markets will be.

Capitas7:
One great assets to possess in this market is a strong mind; one that is also teachable. Never be bullied by the noise or 800% that anyone makes. Goals are different, and so are strategies.

The quoted post was in response to my January post stating about the bull being less aggresive enough to tempt. I felt attacked by the response, but I smiled. A trader feels the need to protect every 50% gain, while an investor wants to remain in a company that grows from N1k into N1m even if it takes a decades.

Uncle mi, what I meant was that there was still infinity room for my BE of UBA @N8, Access @N11, DANGSUGAR @17.70, UCAP @N3, PRESCO @ <N120 among others.

I smiled, and "time patiently put things in perspectives" (respect to OGG). Often tines, while traders are celebrating an Oando from N7 to N80, investors are rejoicing over a UCAP for that's giving massive bonus and interim dividends. Just choose your camp and dont throw stones into others' camp.

Follow-follow without growing in knowledge in this market na highway to winning big and losing all. After many years of amassing money in the market, it will be time for children to inherit everything.

1. If your approach has been to follow the money and follow the picks on NSEMPA without knowledge, where would those children go to for picks?

2. With what knowledge will they manage the inheritance? Gamble all in the market?

Locotrader:
Lol
LWKMD for the bolded.
Who be some of you?
Una dey exist for this market?
Since Gtb man booked profit, wetin don happen?
Until Alhaji, ote$, Rabiu, Adenuga etc agree to bears.
Index na index.No matter what, keep your eyes there.....

Pls edit your comment fast fast.

One great assets to possess in this market is a strong mind; one that is also teachable. Never be bullied by the noise or 800% that anyone makes. Goals are different, and so are strategies.

The quoted post was in response to my January post about the bull being not aggresive enough to tempt. I felt attacked by the response, but I smiled.

Uncle mi, what I meant was that there was still indefinite room for my BE of UBA @N8, Access @N11, DANGSUGAR @17.70, UCAP @N3, PRESCO @ <N120 among others.

I smiled, and "time patiently put things in perspectives" (respect to OGG). Often times, while traders are celebrating an Oando from N7 to N80, investors are rejoicing over a UCAP that's giving massive bonus and interim dividends. Just choose your camp and don't throw stones into others' camp.

Agbalowomeri:
The CEO that was doing wonders in AFRIPRUD was hijacked for UCAP.

Sad! This is not good for some of us who are relying on the past glory of the company.
I really appreciate the pointer, sir.

Blaqq2:
Share price / EPS

I'll think that the share price/dividends (dividend yield) of some banks (at least UGAZ and FF) are even more attractive than the share price/EPS of AFRIPRUD. Even if they pay the entire EPS which would mean dipping into retained earnings to supplement their free cash flow for the year, I don't think the stock is competitively attractive at current price.

Although PE is very far from enough information to determine if a stock is rightly valued, I just shared my view by using exactly the parameter you used.

Blaqq2:
according to my calc afriprud seems undervalued?
am i on the right path?

Kindly share what parameters were used to arrive at this? Or the reasons.
The venture is benefitting greatly from the low cost of sales that it's businesses enjoy. Things would have been worse otherwise. Simple metrics such as revenue growth, earnings growth, etc.have not been looking good for some time.

Capitas7:
I have been meaning to ask questions about AFRIPRUD (the company) for some time now. From the dividends standpoint, I think they will struggle to pay 50k for FY2023 as in the last two years. Expenses keep diminishing the net earnings, and if I am right, cash reserves increased in Q1 2023 but reduced significantly in Q2 2023. currently at about 21k net earnings at H1, 50k dividend seems impossible at FY.
............

I particularly seek insight about the company's growth and current standing from gurus here. Thanks for all contributions in advance!

Quoted post trimmed for space purposes.

AFRIPRUD Q3 2024 result seems flat again. The quoted post was made in Sept. 2023. Nothing spectacular because the 9M EPS increase from 44k to 67k might not translate into enough cash to save for rainy days or to even pay manageable dividends for FY24. No significant growth in income from operating activities. They make smart investments that help boost the bottomline sometimes, which is commendable, but that also blurs the line between what the real business generates and intervention through financial/money market opportunities.
With an interim already paid, it may be difficult to not dip into retained earnings to have a decent dividend yield this year. There's certainly need for innovation in this venture!

Raider76:
Thanks for the response. Not sure of the "old wine" part thought.

I had to acknowledge that. It's respect

RodgersAkpafu:
Thank you for your contribution as well.
very insightful
so we learn from each other

💯. We learn from each other.

RodgersAkpafu:
While what you said is true

This is not applicable to Bamboo, but is applicable to trove.

Bamboo will give you CSCS and CHN
I mean I use them and the same CHN that is linked to my other brokers is the same one linked with it, plus a separate CSCS number
So yea

Thank you for clarifying and giving a good example for all to note, boss.

Raider76:
With this explanation I wonder if Morgan are third party brokers. When I filled the e-dividend with the registrars of Linkage Assurance they told me I have to fill a transfer form with my brokers because the shares are in my broker's name.

Very valid concern, but I think the "transfer form" just sounds a little misleading - it's an essential form requested for by all brokers if I recollect correctly. I actually think Morgan does not fall into this 3rd party category. I think it's those brokers with no local physical office that are "suspects".
You're an old wine, so I know you know much, boss.

Blaqq2:
I just confirmed
Bamboo is just outright scam
Their charges to begin with is just funny
Plus the fact that they sell your stocks at the lowest possible option is just sad

Many have replied with a lot of helpful advice and explanations, but I'll add from another angle:
Third party brokers are really not the best if you want to treat your holdings as assets,rather than short term trading positions. In many cases, your name will not appear on the registrar's record as a stockholder because the online broker (Fintech) are the ones who own the stocks you hold. This is like buying land without CofO. You own the plot, but with limited rights as a temporary occupant since you are not really recognized by the concerned ministry as the owner.

In addition, there is a concept called "stock lending". This business has earned many brokers several billions. It is legal at least in the US, and if it is legal on NGX, you might have signed when opening your account with a third party broker that you agree that your shares can be loaned. When loaned, traders and "shorters" can use your positions to do magic that influence the stock availability and price movements in the market while your "local" portfolio still tells you that your holdings are untouched.

Because of hardworking indigenous entrepreneurs who continue to provide jobs and establish local companies, I wouldn't say to ditch these apps, but I'd say it's good to add a broker with a physical office and good reputation.

debeey87:
Has anyone who receives dividend through gtbank gotten their Access bank interim dividend? Nothing on my end

I am in this category.
I realized on Saturday that it had been credited to my account. But no email or text notification was received.

Just an observation: the rate at which the oil and gas sector (well extended to energy/power) is attracting media attention might mean that the current administration has a strategy. Luckily, it is quite coincidental with the completion of Dangote refinieries. For some administrations, it's banking/finance, for some it's construction, hospitality and so on.

I remember in 2008-2010 when a friend was always proud to share about the rapid growth in the hospitality industry in Akwa-Ibom state. Media has power, and some governments are able to use it. Whether the endgoal benefits the citizens is another story.

Attention should please not shift to agriculture yet till some of us are able to sit tight enough for a fortune that can last generations.