Capitas7's Posts
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Heishere:Nice approach! I am not sure if this trend still holds for UCAP, but I have noticed that the price action after announcement of FY report makes it difficult to buy for shorts or even for increasing one's position profitably. If one is unable to join the wagon before announcement, it is usually not worth it. And in the past, based on what I observed, it took some time after markdown before it's price went low to reasonable (for current shareholders) pre-announcement level. NB: This is just an observation. I might re-invest my dividend in the same UCAP if I don't find another stock with potentials of growth like UCAP. Current price though . |
YourCoffin:This is hilarious. But I hope that the enquirer is not discouraged by the sarcastic comment. That is a good starting capital, if the thirst for growth and knowledge is right and diligently approached. |
emmanuelewumi: edoman2016:You can also think of it this way: "ise ko lowo". This means hardwork does not guaranty financial breakthrough. Many people who invest in these vehicles are okay with the 9-18% annual ROI (even higher for those who are not sleeping with both eyes closed) for many reasons including: 1. It is just a passive source of income. They are continuously dealing in businesses or earning salaries while investing. 2. They are building wealth, not just slaving for money. After laboring hard, your money should work for you in return. IOn the other hand, if a business returns 20% of its capital in 1yr, let us imagine the monetary value of the efforts, sleepless nights and time that its owner must have put into it, especially in a harsh and volatile economy. |
gabscity:Apt answer! I guess that boss is just catching cruise with his questions today though . He started with the question on when UBA will be paying the ALREADY paid dividend ![]() |
emmanuelewumi:Thank you for sharing your personal information for enlightening purposes sir. These are sweet bargain cost averages as I would imagine of a seasoned investor like you. And I have never mentioned it here before that I called you on phone to have a chat when I first started investing (with my NYSC savings about a decade ago). I appreciate your encouragements back then. Truly I receive the weekly updates from my stockbrokers, and I am consoled by some 150%+ positions, but majority are currently around the current market price (which I am not overtly bothered about). My earlier post was also to drive home a similar point because I have had discussions with people who believe a dip is an opportunity to buy more (which in itself, is a right approach), but they often do not wait the low till it gets to the lowest RANGE. It is good to invest for steady dividends, but one also needs to ensure those investments are sweet deals. One ironic advantage of not always having surplus available cash is that one can buy stocks of interest over a price range. I think your post also stylishly talks about taking profits WHEN DUE (determined by a lot of factors). I once mentioned in my post here that at my age, I prefer the exponential growth (which emphasizes taking profits on 180%+ price appreciations and spreading the proceeds across other stocks of interest and re-entering if/when an opportunity presents itself). My projection is that by the time the costs of our kids' education and living start demanding more income, I would have structured my portfolio for bargain dividend yields. One of my investment mentors says "take calculated risks vigorously when young". |
Lion123:I really like this target price. Rain and shower are not the same. Sometimes, averaging down needs good calculation. A stock that is yet to lose 30-40% in a general "rainy season" might continue to be a value stock, but not necessarily a sweet deal. A sweet deal is booking a first class flight ticket at about the same rate as economy class, on a world class airline. I also wish the rain falls well on Zenith, and I would be glad to enter at this N16. N1600 can then buy the same number of units that N2500 once bought. That there is a sweet deal on a value asset! NB: Each person has paid different costs as "school fees" on NSE, so we cannot judge people when they define their cutoff averaging down entry prices. Someone who averaged down on FBNH all the way from N20+ to N5 might just refer to my own cutoff of 30-40% dip as mere showers that precede the actual rain. |
siofra: ![]() I am assuming you replied that sarcastic question with sarcasm - that was just a question that explains in a million ways, the answer to your question comparing Nigerian stocks to US stocks. I have no idea how much you know, but to answer your question for the sake of beginners who might be visiting this thread and searching for answers, here is my 2 cents: Comparing Toyota to BMW is like saying your level of happiness/fulfilment/satisfaction would be defined by your "goals". You can be happy buying a BMW with all your savings and be cruising round town in a German machine for which a repair can pay someone's annual rent, as long as it gives you fulfillment, brands you well, places you in a class, and so on. You could as well buy some Toyota making you next door guy who goes to bed without worries, and also knows that whenever he puts his used car up for sale, there are ready buyers. Both guys are fulfilled. Having clearly defined your goals/targets, next is the two assets needed for successful stock investment/trading, which are capital and knowledge. On a thread such as this, you will continuously acquire knowledge from people's experience and/or knowledge (if you invest the time, patience and humility, though) free of charge. With your knowledge, you are better able to do due diligence (DD) when a stock (pick) is recommended, or even able to manage and align your portfolio according to your goals. On the other hand, one can lose their capital, if jumping in and jumping out (jijo) on picks (recommended stocks) without a goal or sufficient knowledge for personal analysis. It is not uncommon to see people buying and selling stocks strictly based on opinions or picks of others. It is the fastest way to losing all your capital, or paying avoidable "school fees". Since money is neither lost nor gained in the market, my guess is that both traders and investors are feeding fat on the capitals of unrepentant speculators and people who jump at picks. So, coming back to your question, I woke up two days ago to see that Dangote sugar lost about 5-7% of its stocks price, and since the two days, it has been hovering around the same lower price. If it was a US stocks, I probably would have woken to see more than 80% loss in my capital first of all, or I might have sold due to panic (even experts sometimes find it hard to decipher a pull back from a falling bridge, how much more a learner like me). Summary is that your $2 can turn $100 in one day on the US market, just in the same manner as your $1000 can turn $1. PS: If you choose trading, you might not enjoy the NSE, and be jumping from forex to crypto to US stocks.... I hope with this, you can make your choice between Toyota and BMW. Happy investing/trading! |
emmanuelewumi:This is enlightening! The wealth of wisdom/knowledge on this platform is ever a blessing. Just to clarify though, I am borrowing myself money, and I am not yet a millions millions person like some ogas here (no need for bank loans for my kind of tashere units). Steady/exponential growth in the now, then easy motion tourist life in the later. |
Ades1:Thank you for the word bro. Actually, I use the word "borrow" because I have found it helpful when investing. Here is what I mean: the UBA I bought today for instance, was from funds withdrawn from my money market fund investment. On my mind, I have borrowed from one vehicle to invest in another, and so I must work hard to fill the gap I have created (the quaterly returns from this MMF was intended for my mother's upkeep - God is good, she turns 67 tomorrow). Same way, if I borrow from the funds my family has set aside for opportunities/emergency to invest, I will pressure myself to refund the money quickly. It is more like borrowing myself and paying myself back. If person no dey apply all these kind approaches, na so so emergency and begging go dey take every dime that one earns. I like your strategy by the way! |
Ades1:No be small at all! Do we expect more dips in Dangote sugar? I bought very few units yesterday, with the small change I had left. I would not mind borrowing from family funds to buy more at any opportunity, but identifying that opportunity (low of lows) is the main issue here. Make person no go catch falling knife. |
These quoted posts were made about a year ago. Nobody can time the market, and anyone waiting for a perfect price may never buy or sell. Intendy: Mcy56: |
pluto09:Thank you for this informative answer. Very enlightening! |
Ades1:I was going to quote you in my recent post o, my oga. I just woke up this morning to the alert that my 8-day old trade order was filled �, only to see the result. The stagnancy at N18 after a gain series sent some signal, but not strong enough to pause pending trades. Now, the question is: what price is a good metro station to await this train, if it's value is still on point? May this sugar be sweet ![]() |
Teeonly:Thank you for sharing. Please guru's, what is your take on Dangote sugar? It is one of those stocks on my list for rebalancing my portfolio, but I want to be sure that I am buying value, especially at a GOOD ENTRY PRICE. This drop in EPS is much, but I would want to base my decisions on a more holistic analysis. I would appreciate the opinions based on your analysis. �� Cc. @yMcy56, Pa Emma @emmanuelewumi, @Currentprice, @Onegentleguy and everyone else. |
faoogoke:I was thinking so too - the support cannot be determined from a single pullback event (which might even turn out to be a significant dip as you predicted/guessed anyway). |
Good morning everyone. This goes out to everyone who wants to buy (or add more) Dangote sugar at this time. While we await the Q3 financial summary, I am struggling to keep my entry target well below the current N18. The offers and the recent price actions on this company's stocks might be signaling something positive about the Q3 earnings (not a fact, and so can be very wrong). Hopefully the opportunity to enter will present itself soon, either way the expected financial report goes. Thoughts: It is beautiful to see green all over the land, but caution is beneficial to a portfolio at times such as this. We sometimes save when we buy, and while nobody can time the market, FOMO is a common phenomenon in bull seasons. |
sincerelymine:I am glad that makes any sense at all. Happy portfolio expansion! |
sincerelymine:I am not a pro, but I can lend my 2 cents. It depends on your goals. I was contemplating on Afriprud and UBA, and their Q3s followed the respective patterns I was speculating. One pattern that I have noticed repeatedly on NSE is that during the peak of release of financial summaries (Q1, H1, Q3, FY), the prices of some stocks rise, indicating that some privileged traders/investors are buying some rumor (a smart approach in stocks trading by the way). When such companies eventually release their results, other traders/buyers are excited and they want to buy. This second category of people buy the news and such stocks usually witness dips (could be minor though) afterwards. A good example is UCAP. When the Q3 was released, it was beautiful, and it's price rose slightly afterwards, indicating that the buyers of news were in action. Today, UCAP is back on offers for as low as N9.05. Please note that this does not mean the stock will never rise again in price, or that it's growth is stunted by the price actions. Bottomline, if you are a value investor, I would say UBA is great on your portfolio and might always bring you smiles even if you buy around it's current price. If you are excited by the recent news on the other hand, and want to trade, you might consider waiting till attention drifts away from the stock, so you can buy at a few kobo less than current price. I have been shifting my goal post on UBA for months now because I was unable to raise funds. Now that I have gathered something, I still wish I can get it within the range 8-8.25. My goal is good dividend yield and a portfolio full of stocks with sound fundamentals/value. Please hear the gurus out and follow your goals sir/ma. Neither option is wrong I guess. |
Nobody is talking about Afriprud. I had the aim of adding some units when it was dancing around N5.40-N6.20, but no funds at the time. Managed to squeeze out some change for it now, and it shot beyond my target entry price. Just as UCAP's Q3 earnings surprised my doubts, I want to remain positive on Afriprud's. This is not based on any projections, but personal mission of portfolio growth (UCAP and Afriprud remain among the top choices for dividends and growth). Good thing is that I have never gone wrong with Afriprud, just like virtually everyone else. |
steveneche:I sought similar opinions last week, when I intended to sell 20% of my holdings in UCAP. My reasoning was that the 2021FY dividend yield of UCAP might not be as "sweet" as it has been in the previous years. I got only one response, but I'm sharing with you other posts here that I found helpful. As someone has suggested, your view of the company's fundamentals matters. For me, my current age also matters. A mentor recently told me to grab every golden and harmless opportunity to multiply my capital now that I am young (relatively), so that I will be going into the value investments with huge capital later in life. So, if I see 70-100% gain, I think I would want to sell a fraction of my holdings and invest the proceeds in another stock with strong fundamentals. On the other hand, I would like to refer to the 3rd quarter of 2016 when UCAP rose from N1.6 to N3 and then to N4. Many people sold their holdings to pocket the 100% gain (I was in Afriprid at the time). Another wave blew UCAP to N6, and then this current wave. Bottom line, neither of the options in front of you is wrong. fxuser:The insightful response I got from a fellow member of this forum... Ades1:Another helpful one (though not in response to my post), which I took one or two lessons from... maishai: |
Ades1:Thank you my oga. That is a very nice approach you've got. I have been holding for about 3-4years now (bought over the time space 1+yrs in the frame mid 2017-late 2018). So, I bought at around N2.90-N4.05. It is feels good to know that we share at least a goal in common - dividend yield and retirement plan (my own major goal too na Naija retirement plan). This Naira devaluation just makes every capital appreciation to provoke a "panic" that whispers "take this profit now and diversify your portfolio to be able to overcome devaluation and inflation". And yes, I was thinking so about Dangote sugar too. I will do the second (save more and buy), then reconsider the UCAP holdings. God bless you boss for your opinion/suggestion. |
Good day everyone. I have been thinking about United capital and what their dividend payout might be for FY2021. I was at some point thinking that I should sell about 20-30% of my UCAP shares (currently on a profit of approximately 120%) for re-investment in another company as a plan to avoid a shocking P/E or dividend yield. I am looking at Dangote sugar (which I once had) , but would appreciate anyone's opinion/suggestion. So my concerns are: 1. Is it is worth selling my so-far-reliable (dividend-wise) UCAP? 2. Is Dangote sugar still a good value stock, and which of DANGSUG and UCAP promised a nicer dividend yield for the FY2021? NB: I am a value investor, and would gladly do my DD on any recommended alternatives. Your inputs will be greatly appreciated. |
austinkenneth:Food for thought! Chibuking81:This is another insightful angle to viewing things though. In summary, when going into any investment, one needs to have clear cut out plans, plan B, plan C, alternative investments as buffers/shock absorbers, and ultimately keep re-evaluating their progress. |
Educative piece |
jezuzboi:Very educative piece. I have a number of stories analogous to this situation, and your points are true for all the cases. I was trying to educate a lady about this recently also |
ndidigood:Hmm.. sarcasim . This skepticism is everywhere. UCAP no do well at all |
tritritri:Thank you for the fact my oga. Hopefully, it will repeat itself to allow me realize my plan. I still hold the 33% that I bought at 2.57NGN during the recent dip. With the cash, I can join you at around 2NGN for re-entry. |
rebekah2011:This is serious and not fair on shareholders. You have drawn my attention to important aspects of this company's rewarding factors, and I will join you in awaiting what Q2 has to offer. With regards price, I am HOPEFUL that some MAGICAL sentiments drive it up to around 3NGN in a near time, so I can sell my usual 33% for possible re-entry at those low prices. Thank you for the enlightenment sir. |
rebekah2011:I remember your mini-analysis when you said UBA at 6.45NGN appears more rewarding than UCAP at 2.6NGN or thereabouts. I can now understand better. This result is not encouraging. I speculated diminishing returns for UCAP though. Even though they are being compared to Afriprud as rewarding ventures, UCAP seems to have a long way to go in terms of innovations. This is just my observation about their services which I think may affect revenue. Attractive products are not all that an investment bank (or assets management firm) needs. The competition is getting tougher. |
Valueinvestor:Yes, my oga. Diversification is much needed in this kind of market as you said. Though, I'm still at the stage of imagining how stressful it would be, managing a portfolio of 10 stocks. I really hope to join your club before the end of this year sir. One also needs to be quite large before diversifying; the effect of those 2-3 money-doubling stocks can be felt better. |
ndidigood:I remember that period UCAP was a money doubler. And I think it happened concurrently with the reign of the popular ponzi scheme then. I was just observing my mentors enjoying the money rituals provided by UCAP that year. Many stocks have the potential of making one rich; but identifying such opportunities is not easy. Between speculation and analysis |
Mcy56:I think that was 2014 FY, when they gave 1:10 bonus. When I did the maths that year, the total worth of the 10k dividend and the bonus shares was about N1.10k. I had always thought FBNH would be consistent with their 1NGN+ for more years. I used to be a FBNH faithful, and I learnt one other rule: "do not be emotional with any stocks". This used to constitute about 70% of my little portfolio. Emotional investing suffered me ![]() |
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