₦airaland Forum

megawealth01:
GTB and ZENITH have issues maybe ZENITH has resolved theirs sha

Thank you for the update, sir.
It is quite sad.
Hopefully it all gets resolved this weekend.

gbengafaro1986:
Has anyone using GTbank recieved their access dividend today?

I haven't received it yet. Even as at the time of typing. I use GTB too. I hope this frustrating experience doesn't repeat itself with UBA dividends next week.

Is this banks' network problem just affecting dividends payment? I have been trying to make other transactions (transfer to my GT account), but it keeps bouncing back.

stcool:
Those that have missed out on Transcorp...it is well

TOE needs to pump it...funds needed for UBA offering.

Oga stcool, please quick question.
What does it mean when a majority shareholder pumps price for a purpose like this? I know you can't read anyone's mind, but asking because I want to understand the logic behind the assumption that a billionaire investor would influence stock price to raise cash from the market.

Is it to borrow against the new Naira value of their holdings, or to sell (which directly reduces their stake, and might even affect their majority position). My thoughts would be that the interim dividends from UCAP, AFRIPRUD and UBA will go a long way in claiming his rights when issued or that there would be other means. I would understand why an investor like Otedola would pump price, sell and move on to the next one.

Agbalowomeri:
5kobo

. That won't be nice.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42292_PRESCO_PLC-_NOTICES_OF_BOARD_MEETING_(BM)_-_NOTICE_BOARD_MEETING_(BM)_OCTOBER_2024.pdf

Presco's interim dividends for 2022 and 2023 were declared in the last week in October, shortly after the board meeting. It'll be nice to see how much they'll pay this year.

Ginalex:
well, I get where you're coming from... Especially the forex loss part. But I don't want to believe it'll continue like that forever, especially with the backward integration strategy in mind (the increase in biological asset figure from 7+billions to 18 billion YOY). This is asides the merger talk (which may come like a thief in the night)... At least we can confirm that Dangrice has started rice production... . My time horizon is 1year sha... In as much as I prefer dividend paying stocks, I don't mind with sugar

I'm quite familiar with some of your stocks of interest, and I know you like dividend-paying stocks. I just thought to learn from your reason for staking in Dangsugar at this price and time. Thank you from sharing your reasons.

I feel for those with paper loss, but for those of us with little paper profit, na to LEAVE so as to LIVE to fight another day. It keeps digging like an aboki.

emmanuelewumi:
I hope the pioneer workers of Aradel are alive to witness this day

The founder said it was very difficult to pay salaries when they started and had to pay the workers with shares in the company.

About 8 years ago some of this workers who were at management level had between 500k to 800k shares which should be equivalent to 10 million to 16 million shares after the stock split currently valued at N6 billion and N10 billion

This is really inspiring!

Ginalex:
Started my #1million 100% ROI challenge today. Re-entered Dangsugar at 30.80

Not to digress from the educative discussion about Aradel but for curiosity, why Dangote sugar? Kindly share, madam.
In this time of N1000/L petrol, it is difficult to see any obvious reason why Dangote sugar will return 100% unless the merger talks return to the table.
Mine may be an uncommon case, but I have reduced my Dangote holdings previously at N17.59 BE by 50% - sold at N52-55 and N34. I guess many like me bought based on perceived fundamentals. To recover from the current state of shareholders funds, forex loss, dividends streak, interests on loans, negative EPS seems like an uphill task especially with no solution to forex volatility in sight.
In my opinion, many dividends-paying stocks have more potentials of returning 100% sooner than Dangote sugar. Just a learner's point of view, and ready to buy once a good signal is seen.

ndept:
In the spirit of the country’s independence, permit me to say that I have stayed long here to know that some monikers are just great and anytime they mention a stock, I don’t need to look before I leap because they are people that have stood the test of time and proved themselves beyond reasonable doubt. for example, people like @currentprice, despite the fact that he said we should wait for Q3 of UACN, I have already picked over 400,000 units of it, so after the result, I pick more or decide otherwise.
.........
.........
In short, everyone here that time will not permit me to mention, you are all great. We shall all be multi-millionaires and billionaires in this NGX in Jesus name.

Quoted post trimmed for space purposes.
Thank you Oga Kolaish for the mention. I'm still learning the ropes from your likes, and have a long way to go to merit your mention. I have read many posts from you and other old wines between 2014 and now - a lot to guide a younger fellow like me.
Please don't answer this question if it endangers your security: Do you do real estate business in Ibadan, like developing? Your name is very familiar. I grew up in Oluyole estate extension and the 2008-2012 real estate boom in Elebu/Alaaka area on the Akala express axis made me know some developers from far off.
May your son succeed in his studies and make you proud. He belongs in my generation I guess. All the best sir!

Quick scan of the UBA HY financial reports particularly because of the comments about "deceitful" increased dividends from relatively lower profit. Here are my observations:

1. Topline: All income classes increased by over 100%. This would imply organic growth.

2. Bottomline: PBT was dragged down (403B to 401B) majorly because of (i) much reduced foreign exchange gain (95B compared to 418B) and (ii) higher operating expenses (312B compared to 140B). This would imply slowing forex opportunities and maybe reduced efficiency. Then income tax more than tripled to further increase the PAT margin when compared to 2023.

3. Cashflow statement is rather impressive than disappointing.

4. Paying N2 out of N8.9 EPS still leaves the group with N6.9 per share for half year only. This cannot be said to be fundamentally weak for a stock trading at N24-N28.

Capitas7:
I'm trying to decide which one between UBA and PRESCO would give better total returns with reference to current price over the next 2years in both capital appreciation and dividends.
From the last two FY dividends payout ratio of 68-80%, PRESCO is predicted to pay over N50 for 24FY.
Historical payout ratio might not work for banks in this era of currency devaluation, but N3-4 might be very conservative for UBA.
Both look very ripe for capital appreciation either after announcement of interim dividends or later.

I shared this thought on September 25th because I was expecting either Presco or UBA to be the second best performer among my holdings for FY24 from a dividends and capital appreciation standpoint. Kudos to UBA.

Ginalex:
You've said it all. I remember very vividly when Oga street mentioned dangrice being audio... If you get past his communication style , you go see his good intentions clearly. Na just say no be everybody get cool temper to overlook certain things

I agree with you. Very correct!

ndept:

The guy is a bunch of trou.ble. Has it been we have an admin for this forum, he would have been blocked and chased away with masquerade long ago. Complete nui.sa.nce that cannot have a decent conversation with others.

He asked a similar practical question about Dangote rice and shared his opinion about how Dangote foods seemed dead before even happening. About 2 days later, Dangote foods merger failed "indefinitely". If a forum member with over 30 years of mechanized agriculture at commercial scale (many years before the age of cheap photography for social media deceit) is chased from the forum, I wonder what would be left to benefit from.

"Hate the man, not the message".
~Unknown

I'm trying to decide which one between UBA and PRESCO would give better total returns with reference to current price over the next 2years in both capital appreciation and dividends.
From the last two FY dividends payout ratio of 68-80%, PRESCO is predicted to pay over N50 for 24FY.
Historical payout ratio might not work for banks in this era of currency devaluation, but N3-4 might be very conservative for UBA.
Both look very ripe for capital appreciation either after announcement of interim dividends or later.

megawealth01:
You stay in the US?

As at the time of typing/posting, yes. Not always though.

emmanuelewumi:
They also assist with down payment for properties, so by the time they pay mortgage for 20 to 25 years they will finally own the property and are in a better position compared to those paying rents for 20 to 25 years.

All these will give the children a quick headstart.


What do you expect an 80 year old who is making over N30 million per annum based on smart financial decisions made in his youth with his money, rather than spending it on his grandchildren and relieve financial pressure on his children

That headstart makes a huge difference.

megawealth01:
The first rule of wealth is "don't regret what you don't have control over..."

The next is look out for opportunities because you'd have many just that you haven't discovered them yet...

I like this!

Zagee:
You see that Occidental, he picked it up when it can be considered as a penny stock in 2020 down pour. Till date I have an average of circa $10 on it. The Prince of Omaha doubled(just being conservative) his already existing "fat cash" portfolio.

Thank you! That supports my claim of his multiple baggers. Enjoy your win boss!

He is known for "catching them young" and growing/grooming them. If he was selling off at every sight of market correction, he would have been locked out of many positions that would otherwise have contributed to his fortune. We make him a role model for many reasons, and that's why this accumulation of cash is of interest to many of his followers.

Bottom line:
Whether you do long term and are earning multiple baggers or you do short term and take multiple profits, as long as you are winning more, you are doing well.
Just make sure you are learning/growing so that when your children ask you how you do it, you won't be referring them to follow people on a forum who give you free stock picks.

emmanuelewumi:
I know a lot 30 years plus who are still getting financial aids from home, I know a lot of 60 years plus who are paying the school fees of their grandchildren, because they want their children to have enough free cash flow to invest and build houses.
Our prayers is that we should be a source of blessing to our children and grandchildren.
Some people who grew up in Lagos will tell you that their parents had it easier than them.

The bolded is one of the most practical and result-yielding approaches to generational wealth building that I have seen. That is like giving your children and grand kids inheritance while you are alive. Many people delay "inheritance" till after their death.

In western countries, many 20-40+ year olds are still paying off student loan on degrees they earned years ago that were not even sufficient to get them their dream careers. While 25% of their income goes to paying off loans that accrue intrest indefinitely, children of smarter parents are buying property, accessing loans for investment, and not even paying for childcare because their parents are supporting.

If you can support your children by relieving them of their children's expenses and many more, you'll be transferring wealth efficiently in your bloodline ....if the children see it as an opportunity to save and invest, not to flex and waste. See the result while you're alive because nobody comes to your grave to give you an account of how your children use the inheritance you left them.

Ades1:
Rest of mind makes a lot of sense too, For years the, yield on cash was 0%, hence the need to take some risk. 5-6% yield today will definitely make you rethink.

At the end of the day, nobody knows tomorrow or what could happen, not even Buffet. Having cash on the side which brings in about 1/4 of Berkshire’s annual profit is not bad at all.

Definitely, true! Rest of mind is great motivation.
And with Charlie's absence, who knows what his current concerns are?

megawealth01:


Every wise investor knows when to sell off anyways no matter how long they hold

He has stated before that Coca cola was no longer a "profitable" investment, but he has chosen not to sell because it would cause "chaos" because of the number of shares he owns directly/indirectly. Selling off 80-100% of one's holdings as a strategy is only easy when your capital is relatively negligible. At several billions and double digits percentage holdings of a company, even cross deals will be easily noticed.

We see these things when there fight for power in some of our companies here in NGX. His preaching have always been to buy the lows of undervalued stocks to increase holdings, not to sell off and come back when the coast is safer.

emmanuelewumi:
Dividend yield is nothing without dividend growth.

70k dividend of Zenith bank grew to N4. 00 over the years.

The old man looks at the growth rate of the US economy, expected growth from the various sectors, expected growth rate of the global economy,GDP versus stock market capitalization etc.

Making it good, managing it is better, multiplying and keeping it is the best and most difficult. Knowing when to have cash is one of the reasons for keeping it for decades.

By the way the cash position is still roughly 30% of fund market value

I agree with your teachings, and I learn from them. No doubts, dividend growth is a valuable ingredient for an investor. I also mentioned in my earlier posts that many of the stocks that return meager 1-4% dividend yield to us are returning as high as 50% to him. His record of being an early bird in value and growth companies assures him both dividend yield and growth.

emmanuelewumi:
Every growth has an expiry date,. Keeping cash is also a strategy that is determined by circumstantial market variables

Most of the investors who have been investing for the past 20 years and also experienced the bull run of 2004 to 2007, if they have kept 25% of their financial assets in cash and money market funds during the bull, I am sure they would have retired by now.

Very true!
I am not disagreeing with any otmf what you have said. I am just trying to match (1) what we know about a fellow that many people see as a role model in investing with (2) the unusual and sudden turn of events.

megawealth01:
Well there's a way the extremely wealthy reason different from others...

The safety of your capital FIRST

"Safety of capital FIRST" is a common practice among investors regardless of where they belong on the wealth spectrum. You sold your initial capitals worth in Oando and put the rest on free ride. That's an example. Many of us do that eevrytime.

The press releases do leave out some important information. I will just use a few for reference. Berkshire is the largest shareholder of Apple by number of shares held, and Apple is the largest stock by value in Berkshire's portfolio. Despite all the sales in recent times, their remaining value in Apple is still way more than their state in BoA, the next largest holding of Berkshire's.

We have read a lot about Warren Buffet, and we know that timing the market or running from the market are not part of his principles. Our own Pa Emma (I compare him to Warren for context here) shared about how he opted for bonds in the defining of the year. That did not mean that he didn't obtain loans to buy some stocks this year too. Warren has done value and growth investing all his life; it is fun and second nature to him, and receiving 5% on CD or HYSA was not how he maintained his spot as one of the richest men on earth.

Raider76:
You forgot that inflation rate there is normally only 2% to 3%

That is true. And for someone who has consistently made double digits annual returns, beating inflation rate is not something to settle for.
I do not know this man's mind and do not know why piling of cash is a move, but my point is just to say that 5% might be a temporary "best" option, but I doubt if it could be a motivation.

BabsO2:
50-200 baggers .
Which stocks delivered that ?

In the book "The little book of value investing" which I have recommended once or twice on this forum, Christopher Browne shared about how Warren was buying Berkshire shares at about $25 decades ago at his fathers brokerage. Today, Berkshire shares are valued at $696,000 per share. I usually don't bother calculating how another man has made 10bags or anything, but focus on learning what they do right, so I won't be able to cite other examples, but there are amny articles that I have read where the authors took their time to explain his wins in growth stocks. Coca cola is there, the insurance companies are there, so many
multiple baggers. Attached is a Yahoo article to partially back up my claims.

I honestly don't think it is easy staying on Forbe's list as an investor in the NYSE market without such 2 or 3 digits baggers. Dividend yield is nothing, many traders are shorting or doing their profit taking mercilessly; just too many reasons to not do fine as an investor not to talk of maintaining a spot on the globes billionaire list.

emmanuelewumi:
5% of $280 billion is $14 billion oooo. It gets to a level when 20 bagger does not make sense and is impossible. The only sensible thing is the conservation of your capital.


Imagine what $14 billion can do for Nigeria as a nation

I do agree that conservation of capital is great practice. But he did not stay on Forbe's list by sitting on cash pile for these years. And you do remind us about the importance of consistency in investing too. His growth stocks have a record of return way more than that annually. With a return of 300+% from Apple since their first purchase in 2016, growing a total invested of 36billion to about 150+billion in 8 years, 5% is only an option when nothing else makes sense in the market.

Ades1:
Baba is collecting 5%+ on top of that $280B with no risks whatsoever. This is why rich people stay rich, they don’t chase money, na money dey pursue them.

Fair one!
But I don't think someone who bought shares at $25 a few decades ago and still holds when valued at $600k would see 5% as satisfactory annual yield. With many 50-200 baggers, 5% won't be motivation to pile cash up. Moreover, many of the stocks that are giving us latecomers 1-4% dividends are probably returning 50% dividends on cost price for him. But that said, the rates on high yield savings or CD's are quite negotiable when your principal falls in certain brackets.

LordAdam16:
Buffett cannot wait until CNBC and Bloomberg are reporting an imminent crash on their chyron.
Who would provide liquidity for his billion-dollar exits? What would his losses be when everyone is abandoning ship and he has large stacks to offload.
.......
He has to book his returns on contemporary slow-moving assets (Bank of America, American Express) and wait for the crash that lets him snap up traditional profitable businesses at better (lower) valuations than he'd get at current elevated asset pricing.
If we have a soft landing and macro headwinds let up, he'll return posthaste.
In fact, if he sees a good deal this quarter, he'll snap it up. He has been acquiring shares to the tune of $6.8B in Chubb. A business in one of his primary moneymaking sectors - insurance. He has not divested yet.

-Lord

Original post trimmed to save space.

I agree with this thought.
He has said it before that insurance is en easy money-making machine. Berkshire's sell off is very selective across his interests. I haven't read/heard of sales of Spotify, Coca-cola, Occidental pet, Amex (seeing it for the first time in your post), insurance etc. And yes, the selloff is a few multiples of the purchase price of these stocks, but the quantity sold is nothing near the ones remaining in the portfolio. This is profit booking on a mega scale.

Pa Emma giving us many history lessons. Very insightful and educative!

If you drive at bicycle speed and are tempted to join the speed of light wagon in the stocks market, please enjoy this post below from 2023.

Asúré tete ò ní kọjá ilé.

wanaj0:
It is always interesting when people focus on money to be made when prices go up but IGNORE the possibility of losses when prices go down. A lot of crypto mentality of quick money to be made at play. People tend to forget that the ORIGINAL design of the capital market is to create access to capital market.

When you join people trading you did not ask what percentage of their capital are they using. You joined using your entire capital and now you are complaining.

When people were using less than 0.0001% of their portfolio to buy OandO and shouting 100% profit. You also joined with 100% of your portfolio and now that almost 50% loss is starring you at the face you are angry! Angry with who? Were you planning to share the profit with anyone? Why do you expect anyone to share in your pain or misery!

There is always upside and downside risks. Know how you will manage both and Know PEACE

This is still September. New academic session has just started. NSE (sorry now NGX) is collecting school fees!

Kindly pay your fees quietly and don't disturb anyone.

Men are known when the BEARS appear

Eku market ooo

ositadima1:
That calculation is wrong. But tank you all the same.

Thank you for pointing that out. I remember PA Emma mentioned some reasons for caution back then.

My quote was intended to highlight a job well done and the kind of informative/motivating post we sometimes miss these days on the forum. I personally never checked nor planned to invest in Ellah Lakes.

ositadima1:
Based on current plans and progress, Ellah Lakes Plc is anticipated to commence revenue generation in 2025. Their 2,400 hectare oil palm plantation in Edo State is projected to commence oil production in 2024, and their cassava processing plant is also anticipated to be operational in 2024. Upon the operationalization of these facilities, Ellah Lakes will be able to begin selling their products and generating revenue.

Its total equity stands at 19.9 billion naira as at the end of July 2023, which has been increasing, primarily owing to land appreciation. The group has been incurring an average of 900 million naira annually to run the farm and business. I estimate that they will expend a total of approximately 2 billion naira before commencing revenue generation in 2025. This amount will be covered by land appreciation.

ELLAHLAKES possesses 5,000 hectares of land, with 2,100 hectares currently planted, while OKOMUOIL owns over 32,000 hectares of land, with 19,000 hectares planted.

Below is a simplified back-of-the-envelope calculation of what may be anticipated from ELLAHLAKES in 2025:

*Currently, OKOMUOIL generates 16.2 billion naira in profit after tax (PAT) from their 19,000 hectares.

*I project ELLAHLAKES to generate 1.8 billion naira in PAT from their 2,100 hectares proportionally.

*Assuming reduced efficiency due to ELLAHLAKES being relatively new, 0.8 x 1.8 billion naira = 1.44 billion naira in PAT.

*Earnings per share (EPS) of 1.44 billion naira / 2 = 0.72 naira.

*At the current price of 3.13 naira per share, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio should be 4.34 compared to 14 for OKOMUOIL.

*Estimated dividend yield of (0.72 naira / 3.13 naira) x .8 = 16%.

Conclusion: If all goes well, purchasing it now or at a lower price, if feasible, would be akin to purchasing UCAP in 2020, lol.

Additionally, I have observed increased interest in the stock in the last 3 months. A stock that previously traded below 10 million naira in a month is now trading 300 million and 190 million naira monthly.

This Chief used his torchlight on Ellah Lakes last year. Very insightful! That was the beginning of Ellah Lakes' attention and discussion on the forum.

Identifying a potential 10-50 bagger takes a lot of work. Respect boss!