₦airaland Forum

A few metrics that stood out to me about the Afriprud result:

-Very marginal decrease in gross earnings, (greater chunk contributed by non-operating income as in the previous year)
-Free cash flow per share: N2.09k (represents a marginal increase)
-EPS: 48k from 75k
-Cash reserve per share: N2.63k from N0.425k
-An increase in foreign portfolios by 3-fold both in investment size and portfolio counts.

Paying 45k seems very affordable and responsible of the management.
It is good to see a not-so-damaging direct effect of forex. The company has also mastered how to grow its non-operating income.
This is me just trying to see the positives in the midst of reds and negative summaries.

KarlTom:
Someone asked about NIN/BVN for diaspora.
Check this link:
nimc gov ng/diaspora

[Replace the space with dot...

Thank you so much for this!

essentialone:
CBN TO FREEZE BANK ACCOUNTS WITHOUT BOTH BVN AND NIN STARTING FROM 1ST APRIL 2024

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) says it will freeze accounts without both a Bank Verification Number (BVN) and National Identification Number (NIN) from 1st April 2024. This is according to a Friday circular by the apex bank which instructed banks to place a “Post no Debit” restriction – which prevents customers from making withdrawals, transfers, or any other debits “for all existing Tier-1 accounts/wallets without BVN and NIN”. ......

I might not understand this well.
Does this mean that Nigerians in diaspora (without NIN) can start biding their dividends goodbye and the bank accounts linked to their stockbroking/registrar accounts may stay frozen till they are able to obtain NIN? How will this affect inflow and outflow of funds from Naira-denominated investments? As it is already, many Nigerians in diaspora invest through accounts created by relatives - how much more complication will this new policy bring?

Capitas7:
.....
.....Resolution: There may be opportunities to take positions in good stocks in a near time, but the definition of "undervalued" or "opportunity" as it pertains to the Nigerian investment landscape might be subjective and unclear until there's "stability", another subjective/unclear destination.

contd...
As long as these remain unclear, holding unto dollar as a businessperson, trader, consumer, investor, salary earner, etc seems like a journey that has no end, especially for people whose predominant transactions are in Naira. I think it is sad that taking substantial positions (1% or more) in some good companies with allowable liquidity is becoming more affordable to foreign smart monies at the expense of the hardwork of many patriotic Nigerians over the years.

“I make no attempt to forecast the market—my efforts are devoted to finding undervalued securities.” - Warren Buffett.
I made a resolution about 2 weeks ago based on 3 thoughts:
1. $1 = N1700 might just be the beginning of the Naira devaluation journey.
2. 20% on fixed income vehicles might just be the beginning of the yield increase journey.
3. The bears we see today might just be the beginning of the ruins to be caused by inflation, devaluation, reserves depletion, interest rates, yields on alternative vehicles etc.

AFRIPRUD at N5.5, $1/N700 had a capitalization of $15.7m.
AFRIPRUD at N7, $1/1700 has a capitalization of $8.2m. Huge change within a year.
Resolution: There may be opportunities to take positions in good stocks in a near time, but the definition of "undervalued" or "opportunity" as it pertains to the Nigerian investment landscape might be subjective and unclear until there's "stability", another subjective/unclear destination.

PuristForest:
If you know how long ive watched this.......Still bullish on LCID for temporarily gains can't see how it will not make 5.4 short term. I do realize that the EV market is kind of slow now but what this all means is it's a great time to shop for EVs before the market normalizes and prices head back up and i actually think LCID has bottomed from the 1week chart below - there's no other way. Even if it has not bottomed, technically speaking, it will still test 5.6 region before it heads down again.
in the same vien, i am also waiting for #RIVN to bottom within this week or the next
https://investorplace.com/2024/02/like-to-gamble-you-may-want-to-give-luxury-ev-maker-lucid-a-chance/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/its-suddenly-a-great-time-to-buy-an-ev-130004761.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/93ce1db2-2bcc-3c63-b38a-bcc10884a832/lucid-is-latest-ev-maker-to.html
QR code give access to my trades / thoughts and in-depth analysis

Thank you for sharing the predictions from your analysis. I mentioned that you might be seeing some green light about LUCID stock to infer that the stock and the company are two seperate entities. I based my opinion on fundamentals and the reality of the company's performance in the auto market generally. I am a long term investor, and I visit charts after making a decision to take/increase my position in a stock.
I made close to 100% on Lucid, some gains on FuelCell, both in 2020, but that is the kind of market euphoria during which I trade such stocks.

I hope Oga Aremso is fine. It's been a while since he made posts here.
I think it is difficult to engage in conversations on this forum. We all can rub minds, share what we are buying, selling, why, when. We can share our rewarding buys and the disappointing ones. Short, medium, long termers can all benefit from the nice community. The data for carrying out fundamental analyses are all over the internet, just as the charts for carrying out technical analyses are available too; but we will need to do the anaylses by ourselves, and together we can identify every next Apple, Nvidia, or even "Gamestop".

PuristForest:
jumping in a lucid, anyone here on lcid?

Not in Lucid. But as someone has said, EVs are a long thing right now. I haven't seen any of them that has recorded meaningful profit in any quarter since founded. It is even more difficult for Lucid to penetrate the market by sales volume because they make luxury cars only (unless some economy class models have been introduced lately). One might see 3 Chevy corvettes before seeing one Lucid on the road.

You might be seeing a green light that has nothing to do with the company, but just its stock though.

dangle:
What a loss! Wigwe, his wife and two of his sons including Abimbola Ogunbanjo, NGX and Betaglass Plc chairman were on board the chopper that crashed.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/02/10/helicopter-crash-nipton-california-near-nevada/72551755007/

https://saharareporters.com/2024/02/10/update-access-holdings-ceo-herbert-wigwes-wife-two-kids-also-dead-us-helicopter-crash

This is really sad! May their souls rest in peace.

For long term investors, I think Valero is a good stock. The the company's free cash flow per revenue, P/E of approximately 5, and an attractive ROE.

I don't know what a good entry price is, although I once made close to 50% on the stock in the past. I hope I get some in the $125-$135 range for long term. Exxon Mobil at less than $99 is another one on my radar.

Mankind2024:
Yes, you own all your equities on T212 platform.
You are a common shareholder
You also vote in companies AGM thru online participation.
You also earn interest on unused funds
You invest on NYSE ,LSE Germany, France, Netherlands listed equities.
They have 2 types of accounts
Investment and cfd
I registered for only investment account.
They made u to sign an electronic indemnity that you are not a US tax resident.
I fund my account by SWIFT which cost $14 per transaction.

Thank you for all this information. This must be a really cool platform. Nothing compares to being a "real" shareholder.

Mankind2024:
In 2013, I requested Meristem to adjust my buying fee to 0.5% based on the benchmar @Morgan, they replied that they can only consider if my portfolio worth is N100M, at the time I was struggling to build an investment portfolio of N1m, fast and forward portfolio is smiling @ over a quater NGN Bili.
Just waiting to cross the N0.5B b4 requesting morgan to adjust the current 0.5% to 0.25%.
U will all know once it is granted.
Investing for free is the ultimate.
T212 platform does not charge Nigerian investors for global stock exchanges any commission. I was lucky to have opened an account with them in 2019.
As at today, Nigeria is no longer among the countries they accept.

Thank you for this information. Do the T212 investors get their shareholding units reflected on the books of the companies they own? I say this because some retail "stockbrokers" have a structure whereby the investors are actually just occupying borrowed stock ownership positions. The more reason why Nigerians need to be careful when "investing" in foreign stocks. With most of those platforms, it is like buying NGX stocks and your name not being registered with CSCS, not to talk of shares appearing in your name. Same way Nigerians in diaspora are usually advised against investing NGX through some online platforms.
Asking for education purpose.

Choiceguy:
[/b]

I am with you on the bold.

Thank you! I appreciate you viewing my opinion contextually sir/ma!

The rewards or regrets of booking of profit is very subjective - on a case-by-case basis.
What is the ratio of the size of one's portfolio to their annual expenses/budget?
What is the age of the portfolio, and even the owner?
What is the ratio of the portfolio size to the annual additional investments that the owner makes?
How does the forward ROI (dividends + price appreciation) compare to the one-time profit?
After booking profit, what next? Wait for a ravaging bear, divest the profit or take care of needs/wants?

A 27year old whose N2m portfolio rises to N5m because of this kind of bull might not consider booking profit if he just got a new job that enables him top up his portfolio by 500k monthly moving forward.
A 59year old whose N170m rises to N400m might book profit because it took 15 years (2008-2023) to re-experience a mad bull. They might not see/experience the next one.

For me, based on my age, size of portfolio, annual expenses, projected size of portfolio (15year plan), alternative investment options, and other factors, the kind of profit that would have worth the fees+taxes together with the stress of waiting for bargain lows never came.

BullBearMkt:
...although it's largely skewed towards the large caps which are the main driver of NGX, but indirectly has some weight on small caps as well

Thank you. I always respect your wealth of knowledge sir.

That was what I was using many words to say. I meant that the index might not react proportionately to the price movements that are provoking the uncertainties on ground. Maybe comparing the banking index to ASI for instance.

I guess the choice of reading to respond rather than reading to digest might have caused a misunderstanding by the one who quoted me earlier though.

Locotrader:
Lol
LWKMD for the bolded.
Who be some of you?
Una dey exist for this market?
Until Alhaji, ote$, Rabiu, Adenuga etc agree to bears.

Pls edit your comment fast fast.

To say someone does not exist is a strong statement. I am not Rabiu, Alhaji or Adenuga, and I am not in the market because of any of them. I made a sarcastic statement, but I appreciate your response. Sometimes, it is worth reading a post slowly and maybe again before responding.

I came into the market with projections based on my age (at the time) and where I would like to be by particualar milestone ages, so I stay true to my roadmap, learning and increasing along the way; not in the market to compare myself to man-made gods.

Locotrader:
Just keep your eyes on the index.
Very strong support @ 100k which is my bullish stand.

Is the index an accurate reflection/representation of market price movements at the moment? With very few stocks having very strong influence on the ASI, and the other stocks having little influence on the index, the loss of roughly 25% in many stocks has hardly been reflected in the changes to the index.

That story of the tortoise and the mermaid whereby the tortoise was roasting and eating baby fishes, but always showing a well-marked fish as an indicator of an ongoing good job comes to mind. We fit dey see plenty fine caps but no head dey under dem - inaccurate census. I hope for positives too - the profit some of us were hoping to book never came

Mankind2024:
To succeed in Nigeria, focus on your goals, pursue it with unmatchable self determination.
There can't be mass prosperity in Nigeria, rather individual and self prosperity.
As people are crying of Ebu n pawa, many are increasing their networth. .....

Great way to look at things positively. May all be well in the land!

As the increasing rates on fixed income vehicles continue to pose a threat to the stock market, it occured to me that FGN bonds, T- bills, MMF are not a reasonable option to Nigerians whose primary transactions are in foreign currencies, and so their funds will either remain idle or in the market. This is not a dollar-naira e-argument. The massive brain drain in the last one or two decades has seen many Nigerians earning and spending in hard currencies. Yesterday's "leaders of tomorrow" - the present day youth - continue to japa, and the ones remaining continue to assess their financial worths in those currencies too. As long as quality education now requires gadgets, reagents for experiments, subscription to foreign learning contents, life will continue to become more expensive for the youth and children of today. What will be the cost of education, simple family-sized sedan, accommodation, etc. in three years time? Initiation of Nigerian youth in foreign lands into NGX should be on the rise, but the discouraging factors get stronger by the day.

If you are very comfortable and not bothered about the decaying state of Nigerian economy, please think about your children who are in the japa generation; think about what the value of the financial wealth you've amassed will be when they're in need of it. If you think your children would need to work hard to build their fortune from scratch, please remember the saying: there's no need to reinvent the wheel - don't set your lineage back on the path of wealth creation just because of old, rigid philosophies.

Someone once shared a post here saying many years of investing and hardwork were being eroded by instability of the currency value, and they were attacked for it. A true, sad and objective view not well-received. In the current state of things, 18% annual ROI sounds good only on paper, even if we disregard the tendency of defaulting in the near future.

Please pray for Nigeria today, everyday!

Exxon Mobil FY23 results expected today.

yok:
LOOKING AT THE PULLBACKS IN THE BIG STOCKS THIS MARKET IS LIKELY TO GO HIGHER

AI seems to be holding this market. For the magnificent 7 stocks (Google this if you are no familiar with it), there seems to be some wind behind their sail that will take them to higher prices, so let us pay attention to them.

With Meta paying its first-ever dividend, the market's reaction to the magnificent 7 is expected to be positive. This is happening within the same week as Google and Microsoft released their Q4 reports (in which they beat expectations quite remarkably). Gross and operating margins of Google are really impressive!
There were valid concerns in the third and fourth quarters of 2023 about the layoffs by these big caps, and news such as these usually stir selloffs shortly before release of financials - that's a pattern to watch out for. Noone should be left out when the AI bubble starts. For ease, it is not a bad idea to buy index funds having these stocks.

I call it a bubble because the innovations and growth to be driven by AI have already been factored into their prices.

Hogwarthtrades:
havoc caused? except i totally misread the circular, seem like a reasonable regulatory requirement for forex trading exposure.


addendum :- to be added shortly

My thoughts exactly! Just another regulatory requirement to "control" overexposure, directly and indirectly in the interest of shareholders. 1a and 1d summarize the regulation. Maybe it will make the balance sheet of for example, Access bank (the one with many babies all over the planet) more complicated moving forward.

currentprice:
I am not a daily/weekly stock traders na. neither do I have interest in Monkey hunting, once I identify my key stock i give d alert and load my account. next is to come and be catching fun once a while like my oga Agba....

A prophet is not respected/valued in his own land or among his people. You are a treasure here, because of your knowledge, contributions, selflessness, and so on. This is true for many "veterans" and knowledgeable young persons on this forum.

That we all learn here for free does not mean that we should be rubbish-ing the valuable resources (including knowledge and experience) of learned persons with ridiculous phrases. Say person don learn to dey use terminologies such as free-float, OS, EPS, etc no mean say person don sabi FA oooo - the road still faaaaar!

Let's be calming down, asking questions, and politely stating our opinions/objections/projections. It takes a lot of painstaking efforts to learn and become a master of anything. Luck and speculation can make one money in the market, but cannot cannot help one keep it.

kolaish:
@ all. It is no gainsaying that most of the tier one banks may likely report huge earnings due to forex gains. Banks like UBA may report +N15 eps. Same with Zenith and GTB. One crucial question I am yet to see being discussed is: what becomes of the huge earning that is earned by majority of banks taking into consideration that the CBN instructed them not to pay dividend from forex gains.

Will the banks go out of the way to pay dividends from the forex gains or keep the forex gains in their retained earnings or invest it in other instruments like bonds etc? The answer to this question may shape the directions of banks earning in 2024 and market directions in coming weeks.

I may be wrong or naive, but I think something around the N15+ EPS (might be much lower too) used as an example here is easily achievable for a bank like UBA, without adding forex gains. I think unrealized forex gains are not included in final EPS, unless you are referring to realized gains. I am assuming that "other comprehensive income" is where these gains belong. If so, I think dividends will be paid from the arbitrary N15+ EPS in this case without offending the CBN rule.
Please correct me if I'm getting it wrong sir.

American Express has been doing fine since December. There's usually this general belief that revenue of AXP correlates positively with holiday spending (Christmas, Summer, etc.), but contraty to expectations based on global economic worries ( rates of unemployment, inflation, loan defaulting, etc.), the stock proved the long-standing notion right, after trading within a narrow range for months. The two latest US Feds decisions/announcements in 2023 must have inspired increased consumer spending, which reflected in both local and global revenues, increased gross margin, increased dividends and all. This is not one to be kept for dividend income, but not a bad company for mid term when the entry is well calculated.

Another one to consider for entry during prolonged sideways/bear market is Visa, although trading at 52-week high already.

emmanuelewumi:
It can happen, over the cause of a decade the stock price will crash and a long term investor who buys regularly will able to have a lower average cost price. Over a 10 year period, the earnings and dividend will grow thereby increasing the yield on cost.

The power of long term investing is truly awesome!

Shalom428:
And let your winners run. A discerning investor will not dare to sell some companies at the moment despite the massive profit they've given already cos they are still going to run.

I really like the phrase in bold. All well said!

After I reduced my AMD investment, the stock gained 9% within 2 days. I mentioned in a conversation that it might sell for $200 or more in a near term.
Speaking of bad investments, Plug power has been a very bad one. I usually don't take position in stocks without serious consideration of their fundamentals through financial report history, but my exemption of Nio and Plug from this rule has cost me a lot.

megawealth01:
We have successfully moved AFRIPRUDENTIAL to a double digit stock...

Let the bulls start from here... E go choke ooooo

I believe everyone following MEGA entered at #8+ or even #7+ sef... The beautiful thing about AFRIP is it's a good dividend paying stock... It has a high possibility of paying a fat dividend soon... If you missed UCAP...AFRIP will do the job

Na GOD win...

Dividends for the 2023 FY might be lower than what was paid in the previous 2 years unless the payout ratio is unreasonable from a growth standpoint, or cash reserves will take the hit. I might be wrong though.

I sold off my AMD on Friday to book some profit and leave something in case the AI boom hits the sector sooner. My plan was medium term starting last year, but on realigning, I thought of joining the magnificent 7 (including GOOGLE, MICROSOFT, APPLE,...) through ETFs (ETF because of both return of money and return on money, and also because of the tiny size of my capital). XOM is another one I have a plan on increasing my position in. It has been on my watch list for months, and their books are great from both the perspective of current performance and of short term growth.

I came across this priceless post while reading through old posts. A lot to learn from the last paragraph.

emmanuelewumi:
Very difficult to successfully time the market.

Do you get weekly report from your Stockbroker that shows your average cost prices of your stocks? The average cost price will enable the investor to determine if he has made a profit and if the dividend yield makes sense

I have the following average prices from the report sent to me from United Capital.


UBA N3.50
Access N3.75k
Dangote cement N190
Dangote sugar N6.50
United Capital N2.10
APR N2.30
Vitafoam N3.20
Custodian N2.90
UPDC REIT N3.10
Zenith N16
FBNH N4.10
UACN N6.70
Lafarge N19.15
Airtel Africa N310
MTN N115.


Just make sure you don't runaway from the market when it is bearish, invest for cash flow from your Investments, diversify your gains in a bull market to less risky assets like fixed income, money market, small or personal businesses and appropriately priced real estate Investments, practice Naira cost averaging combined with Investing for dividend yields, dividend safety and dividend growth

Zagee:
Like someone said: "these are times for reaping and not sowing"

I agree 100% with your point, my oga. I paused my plans too.

As loud as bull runs could be, there is a lot to learn if one pays attention to sentiments and data alike. After money doubling, we go kuku return to cashflow-led investing.

emmanuelewumi:
Lafarge Africa and BUA cement will meet at a point of equilibrium of N60 to N70.


Have you observed that BUA companies did not join the current bull run. Probably because they are overpriced when most stocks were undervalued

Thank you sir, for the analogy of Lafarge and BUA. It's a very valid observation that BUA and a few others stocks have remained somewhat stagnant.

I will look deeper to decide on which one will get more allocation when the dust (general bull) settles.