₦airaland Forum

ositadima1:
These gains are indeed unrealized, but you’re missing something important. There are two types of fair value gains here: FVTPL (₦3.5 billion) and FVTOCI (₦19.9 billion). Only the FVTPL is included in EPS because it represents trading (income statement) gains, while the FVTOCI is not and relates relates to long-term investments.

For Q1, I think it’s still early to meaningfully assess cash flow trends, but, most important, there is clear growth in operating revenue and an expansion in fee income.

Then, the ₦19.9 billion FVTOCI gain comes from equity appreciation in Q1. Isn’t that significant, given that this is part of their core business as an asset management firm?

Me and you (if you hold long-term investments) have enjoyed capital appreciation in the stock market. Some guy celebrated his one-billion-naira milestone in the market few days ago, is that not value, even though it’s not realized? Why is it now mere paper profit for UCAP but a source of pride for you and me when we see those huge gains?

Thank you for breaking this down. It was very helpful understanding your angle!

Absolutely, the value chest should be celebrated!

ositadima1:
Look well, their equity and debt instruments have been revalued upward, this has nothing to do with today’s rush by retail traders to sell UBA.

My thinking is that this revaluation does not yield cash flow until these instruments are disposed of. If my thinking is correct, then it means the EPS is cushioned by an items that aren't really income. The statement of cash flow also shows that the results are flat at best.

That is what I think, but I'd like to understand why you consider this a good result.

UCAP seems to be in the phase that can be likened to "diminishing returns". This does not mean that the company is not profitable, but that earnings growth has slowed very significantly if there is growth at all.

awesomeJ:
That as well is for you.

People who know more than you understand that borrowing isn't always about overspending.


You think Dangote was worried about personal expenses when he took a syndicated loan in 2013 to start a refinery.


You need to reach a place where no matter how lavishly you spend, it's insignificant compared to how much you're borrowing.


Consumer loans are one level of growth, there's a higher level where no matter how reckless you become, your personal expenses can't even reach 1% of what you're borrowing. When you get to that stage, you will unlearn all this talk of living above your means.

💯
Never say never in life. We know what we know until circumstances (or growth) introduce new ways to us.

crownprince2017:
Immediately I saw the holding structure of presco, my mind goes to pa emma holdings.
Chai...

He is part of just 1% holders of his quantity.

That is huge and very inspiring!

SonofElElyonRet:
If in like 5 years, Ellah and Japaul do N100 each and C and I leasing and Caverton as well, I'll be ecstatic

I'm sure your story will inspire many when it happens. More wins boss.

megawealth01:
Same PRESCO that I bought at $50+/1

I'm happy for you boss.
What I'm implying is that before anyone allows themselves to be discouraged due to overthinking how insignificant their shares will be in any company, they should remind themselves that we plenty wey dey the bottom of the shareholding pyramid. Nothing is too small to invest in any company. The people holding more than you today might not hold a significant fraction of what you'll own in the future. The 6000 people on that pyramid are investors, not observers.

kintus:
Presco on top 400k?

Bizibi:
that money be like a drop in an ocean.

Attached is the shareholding structure of Presco. 400k (250+ units) will place this person among the 6k investors who hold 1-1000 units out of the the entire 13k shareholders. They will belong in the 50% of shareholders by value/units. That's not bad at all, considering that there are over 100 million Nigerians who are of age to buy and own shares.

chimex38:
Access collect stray bullet
Acquisition kings 👑

Their basket no dey full... picking up every item on the shelf.

KarlTom:
I'm rolling with laughter

Access, dear Access

jeshurun08:
Banking in Nigeria and all over the world is about to be disrupted megally. Look at what fintechs have done in the last 10 years. Don't be deceived o

I won't dispute your projection, but I think there's a common trend whereby blue chip companies buy up innovative companies in their sectors. Like pharmaceutical companies buying up biotech startups, giant tech companies buying innovative startups with excellent products, oil and gas big players buying up distribution/marketing networks. It is one of the advantages of good free cash flow which these leading banks have in abundance.

Fintech is the bride of the day, but when heavy regulations start diminishing their profits, their core investors will not think twice before selling to the leading banks. Alternatively, big cap banks will create their own fintech products to compete in the space. Cashapp and others come to mind. Apple, Samsung etc. buy up tech companies/products to remain sector leaders.

UCAP for instance, launched its microfinance arm because it has the weight. That's a strategic disruption too. How long before Access buys up all the Fintechs in Nigeria?

Agbalowomeri:
That's the next boom in major cities

I agree 100%. I think it's even a global thing in this current time. I have a theory about Japa and Japada: the decades-long massive emigration out of Nigeria will be balanced by a massive immigration into the country over the next 2 decades due to a few reasons that I imagine: the fraction of jobs that are remote globally is increasing. GenZers don't joke with their work-life balance and so struggle with work ethics in the western world, financial independence retire early (FIRE) is fast becoming a goal to every young person, job security in the western world is diminishing at a fast rate, there are more legitimate avenues to make money online.

I believe that all these factors among several others will make any country with friendly tax regulations, relatively slower pace environment and low cost of living more attractive for the next generation youth. It is happening already!

"Die l'oku. Ade'Eko d'ere maa ranti ile".

SonofElElyonRet:
It was actually a rhetorical question... Such humongous largesse as gift (doesn't qualify as sponsorship in my humble view), shouldn't sit well with shareholders.. Not aware of any publicly quoted company company in saner climes doling out such massive cash gifts.. I stand to be corrected
Particularly as the President had already given them a generous dole out. Zenith should've done smaller. Profligacy

Not disregarding your concern. I think it is common everywhere. Companies do report such gifts and donations in their audited annual reports.
It is even more common in "saner climes" because they believe that sports, arts, and others are integral parts of education and avenues to unleash talents. So anything to support or encourage participation and growth is largely considered a contribution as part of social responsibilities.

Attached is a screenshot from the 2024 FY audited reports of Zenith bank. If gifts to sports teams attract scrutiny and a frown, there are some groups on this list that would attract even more controversies.

Streetinvestor2:
For thr group na this kind stock fit make you become audio billionaire with patient fund...go and verify

faoogoke:
Last last NGX will delist Deap Capital. The signs are just to loud. Anyone entering is doing yahoo yahoo.

I remember making the following post on June 26, 2025 and receiving reactions that are ....hmm....

Capitas7:
............ this August 21, 2024 post was the first to highlight DEAPCAP. I respect BBM's TA so much. Same day, I searched for DEAPCAP's most recent results (FY24).

Seeing here, the multiple mentions of DEAPCAP simulating the growth of UCAP sounds like an unfair comparison. That Unity bank and Zenith bank are in the same category does not justify a comparison of both. Neither a Hyundai to a BMW.

No doubts that DEAPCAP might be a good one for trading based on TA predictions, but the figures sound ridiculous unless the auditors forgot to add 000 per column;

Cash at hand = N12,000
Cash in bank = N82,000
Total cash and cash equivalents = N94,000

No figures with which to do any analysis of business growth/returns. The total assets of N300,498,000 cannot buy a decent house in Ikate, Lekki.
Shareholders funds raises a red flag.
Company capitalization is not up to the Nigerian stocks portfolio of some medium weight individuals on this forum.
Retained losses accruing YoY.
No trace of any income, but administrative expenses exist (N12.8million would only pay a few employees for a year if they work from home - how many employees work here?).

How does a listed company manage to organize an AGM with N1.2million in today's economy? I guess a low budget wedding might cost more. I wonder if they'll make a greater business doing something else.

Hamachi:
Great investors,
I need your candid opinion on this issue.
Presently my net portfolio in stock is #20m from initial investment of #2.8m.
I sold my charisma car on Nov '24.presently l footwagen around.l intended to sell part of my holding in stock to buy Toyota matrix worth of #5m. The issue now is should I hold on till Sept,25 because of the bull season or l should go ahead to buy the car.

The post below might help in your decision-making process.

Shalom428:
Dangote and I are two different people with two different philosophy about life .

With more than 8 Million Monthly for the next 25 years in my Bonds , I am definitely a happy man for life. Contentment is the key word

I don't need a yacht or private jet . I am not going to be a prisoner of rat race . The rat race is rigged to keep you running.

The set goal has been met , it's time to enjoy life while I can .

Best of Luck.

I hope this 2023 post 👆 by the elderly Shalom428 speaks to you as it spoke to me. "Stock portfolio" is not the only investment. Buying comfort for yourself with 25% of your portfolio value might be an investment. All towards good, healthy, comfortable living while it is still enjoyable.
The bull might last 3 years or 30 years; nobody knows. Same with the bear that will inevitably come one day and wipe paper profits without mercy.

Agbalowomeri:
AFRIPRUD started declining the moment UCAP poached their CEO

Thanks Agba.
Pa Emma gave me a similar response about 2 years ago.

AFRIPRUD has become my experimental animal. Just observing the company closely, because it's story gives a real-time understanding of the concepts taught in books. From being the toast of dividends and bonus lovers to innovation/growth responding to leadership changes. Good study subject.

Few concerns about AFRIPRUD:

1. Would the company's cash flow for Q2 (or even the entire H1) be enough to pay the 10k interim dividend? FCF, cash & equivalents

2. Isn't the line between operating income and other income blurring as core operations make way less than investment in financial assets? How will Q3 and Q4 combined income compare to H2 when interest rates have declined significantly?

3. What is future of the digital technology as a product? Does it need more time to mature before yielding substantial returns?

4. Business is profitable, assets and shareholders funds are solid, revenue is growing in Naira value, but is there actual earnings growth?

My answers to these questions make me think that the recent share bonus issue and price appreciation might be the water that the camel drinks before embarking on a journey. In my opinion, this beloved company needs innovation.

BullBearMkt:
Uuhmmm!
Price was at 0.44 then, they say the rest is history...

Your picks/predictions are never doubted.

ADDITION: my post was misinterpreted as questioning whether DEAPCAP stocks will make people money. My second paragraph summarizes the purpose of my post - mockery of the comparison of DEAPCAP to UCAP. It is a common wise practice to invest in what someone understands. If a guru mentions a pick, an objective mind does their homework. If TA predicts where stock price is heading, an FA person does their homework by referring to the financial reports. It is called due diligence. Everyone has investment goals and the criterion for taking positions in company shares. Traders make a kill on stocks that make no fundamental sense all the time.

There's a common long-standing saying that "omo to mo way lo mo iwe". It means the student who knows "the way" is the one who is intelligent. This saying has ruined the minds of Nigerian students and will continue to mess their futures up until the mentality is changed. It is why many graduates struggle in the labour market and in entry level positions - good on paper, excellent results, but no retention or practical understanding of course contents. Same mentality is extended to every human endeavor including investing/trading. "The one who makes the most money is the smartest investor/trader". This mentality makes people rely on handouts (in Streetinvestor's language), never do any homework once given a stock pick, believe every price projection, stay complacent in ignorance, always subjective in reasoning, and receiving objective counter opinions as an irrelevant attack on their own views.

Several people are successful at trading stocks, crypto, name it, but they have no reasonable understanding of what makes them money. All they know is: take risks, believe when others are doubting, buy and hold, put money in what people put money into, follow who know road. The young generations these days ask questions. If you cannot educate a child on how to take logical steps to achieving excellent results, you will lose credibility. Everything is not just about results. Many Nigerian graduates get into the Western world and struggle to first unlearn the mentality in Nigerian schools before adopting and learning the reality in a world that functions based on facts, research, knowledge and objectivity.

megawealth01:
Thanks. I mentioned my facilities close to Unilag area sometimes ago here being managed by my brother a LAWYER...

You keep mentioning my stocks. Custain was a school fee I paid

What a coincidence! I was just using random examples.

Costain on the other hand, came to mind because it happened to be one of the stocks used for making people laugh on this forum around 2013-14.

megawealth01:
You have a point because my buildings around UNILAG area is now expensive and I bought them not too long ago.

"NOTORE" has been laid off... Those who haven't got their monies should contact the registrar as I've gotten mine two days ago I think

You are big and large, sir! You truly recognize great investment ideas. I'm sure the appreciation you have seen on those buildings you mentioned will be child's play compared to what will come when gentrification starts in that area - it will definitely happen.

The rent from one of your buildings go fit pay the entire N12.8million annual employee salary that the said company is reporting. Are the employees the children of the CEO, and they just working from their bedrooms?

I come in peace, not to talk ill of any company, but to make sure that UCAP is not dragged. UCAP o kere ninu aiye o. Ade ori okin o jo ti eye k'eye

NOTORE was just a random example of an unpopular stock, just like mentioning Costain about a decade ago.

Locotrader:
No be Una move Ellah lakes without revenue.
Nothing will also stop Deap cap oooo.
Your theory is a mushroom one to compare with market theory.
After,we all will know what is pursuing it.
Deap cap a.k.a Nsempa stock has passed vote of confidence.
Deap cap doesn't have any fundamentals but powerful hands are on it right now.

If you no like am,go to court.

Oga Loco ooo

You misinterpreted the post, but I can't help that. Make we just dey try compare apple to apple. The comparison to UCAP was all I addressed, and not the potential of DEAPCAP shares to make traders some money.

No be me get the "repricing" theory, na people wey dey take time to reason things beyond their micro environment/happenings, na dem make the inference.

megawealth01:
MR TIME and MARKET will respond accordingly... There's nothing to lose if people enter with PATIENT FUNDS

Boss, I am not saying it will not make people money. I only spoke about the comparison to UCAP which is like apple to pineapples.

And sincerely, I think your belief about MR TIME and MARKET is applicable to all the companies on this exchange. If you remember Osita and Agba's theory about stocks being re-priced (or revalued to match the current state of the economy), one would agree that all the stocks on this exchange might continue to rise in value regardless of fundamentals. In that case, there are no picks, since every randomly selected stock is a winner.

I'm sure if someone picks Notore or ABC today, they'll make money when it's time comes.

Good way to look at it: if Nigerians in diaspora start buying up the buildings around UNILAG and gentrification follows, even the oldest/weakest building in Abule-Oja/Bariga will gain massive value. But that does not mean such a building is comparable to any other building on the same block. Neither does the building's new value make it any safer to live in.

BullBearMkt:
ADD DEAPCAP TO YOUR WATCHLIST
Want bounty profit? ADD (not buy) DEAPCAP to your watchlist

PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS

............ this August 21, 2024 post was the first to highlight DEAPCAP. I respect BBM's TA so much. Same day, I searched for DEAPCAP's most recent results (FY24).

Seeing here, the multiple mentions of DEAPCAP simulating the growth of UCAP sounds like an unfair comparison. That Unity bank and Zenith bank are in the same category does not justify a comparison of both. Neither a Hyundai to a BMW.

No doubts that DEAPCAP might be a good one for trading based on TA predictions, but the figures sound ridiculous unless the auditors forgot to add 000 per column;

Cash at hand = N12,000
Cash in bank = N82,000
Total cash and cash equivalents = N94,000

No figures with which to do any analysis of business growth/returns. The total assets of N300,498,000 cannot buy a decent house in Ikate, Lekki.
Shareholders funds raises a red flag.
Company capitalization is not up to the Nigerian stocks portfolio of some medium weight individuals on this forum.
Retained losses accruing YoY.
No trace of any income, but administrative expenses exist (N12.8million would only pay a few employees for a year if they work from home - how many employees work here?).

How does a listed company manage to organize an AGM with N1.2million in today's economy? I guess a low budget wedding might cost more. I wonder if they'll make a greater business doing something else.

Locotrader:
All na true.
Nobody sees it all.
Nobody knows it all.
The market is gradually peaking.
There is no more stock to jump in and out.
The ones we have entered should be kept till peak.

You re analysis is well appreciated

May we all benefit massively from the ongoing bull.
Enjoy your wins sir!

One important question to always ask oneself is: "is my money working for me, or I am working hard to make my money earn me little change here and there?"

Marathon or multiple sprints? Choose which one aligns with your goals and blood pressure level.

Locotrader:
Imagine if I have 100% portfolio in Ellah.
I for retire at 45.

Let me see where my C and C can take me to.

You would have retired a long time ago if you could forsee the future, sir.

Your 15million units of FCMB in 2016 (you bought at N0.90-N1.10) would have comfortably become N180million in December 2023.

Your 21 million units of Transcorp in 2023/24 (you bought around N1.10-N1.70) would have comfortably become N378million within the same 2024 and maybe would have dropped to N210million by now if you didn't sell.

Even if your roughly N50million dividend from FCMB over the years was what you used to buy Ellah Lakes and stayed as an investor till the end of this year, you will comfortably be sitting on an investment portfolio of over N500million. You would have given less money to your brokers, and would have done less work, would have needed fewer posts aimed at convincing people to join your train. You for don dey the 20%+ FGN bonds forum dey plan how to set up a pension plan for yourself by now.

This is a very conservative estimation of how your portfolios would have grown, assuming you did not take advantage of any of the many opportunities mentioned here over the last 9 years.

I like your personality and I'm a fan of yours, so this is not to fault your approach to trading/investing. Some of us dey learn here based on the experience of the elders. I learnt from your massive cash out from Chams too.

onegentleguy:
And still talking portfolio weighting, I'll also be more inclined to assign a higher weighting/position in PRESCO than OKOMU given present reality.
...again, a 65-35% or 60-40% weighting should make good sense from a value chase standpoint.

Similarly, I will gladly assign a 70-30% or 75-25% portfolio weighting swapping FBNH for UBA.
However, I will still maintain a slightly higher position in ACCESS ahead of UBA. (max 40% in the later compared to the former)

Selah

Feb. 18, 2022 post by Onegentleguy.

PRESCO was priced at N80-N95 in the market at the time, while OKOMU was priced at N200+ (rough estimates from my memory, if correct).
Anyone who frequents this thread could not have missed Pa Emma's estimates and analyses of PRESCO over the last 2-3years.
The pasture is usually green when viewed from the other side.

It's safe to say that every "intentional" mid-long term investor has benefited from at least one of the many 10-20X baggers (FCMB, FIDELITY, TRANSCORP, UCAP, PRESCO, SEPLAT, etc.) in the last 3 years. Both sprints and marathons are races.

Princkez:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/44267_UNITED_CAPITAL_PLC-PRESS_RELEASE_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_JUNE_2025.pdf

A very nice one from UCAP!

Without doubts, credit and mortgage systems need to be more accessible and "practical" in Nigeria and West Africa at large. UCAP might be among the gamechangers when the time is right. Expansion to neighboring countries with more stable forex will allow for testing out systems that mimic what obtains in advanced economies.

Streetinvestor2:
like one oga said.You talked about a business and some are talking about a stock.
The business is wonderfully made and doing great..They really know how to multiple the money they got from the bonus issued.

I am looking forward to see which bank can do same from recapitalisation money.I am betting on gtbank and uba in such regards based on q1 2025 results.

I will definitely buy back the ucap I sold to take position in another stock

Very true Oga Street!
I'm looking forward to UBA's performance too.

I guess you sold after the bonus issue. I'm sure it's worth buying back as it reaches panic-sell lows.

Princkez:
Bought some UCAP @#18...

Nice move!
Many will remain misled by comparing EPS between 2023 FY and 2024 FY.
1. Operating income about doubled - organic growth

2. Cash and cash equivalents doubled - Asset growth, tool for expansion

3. Total expense halved, net operating income almost doubled - Increased efficiency

4. Actual profit for the year more than doubled - Income growth

5. Net cash from operating activities tripled - tool for expansion, evidence of real business growth. Cash flow is growing aggressively.

2023 gross earnings and EPS was boosted by artificial items or one time valuation gains such as forex (Notes 7 and 35.2).

UCAP remains a money spinner for value investors. It will take more than unfavorable economic policies, aggressive targeted regulations, poor management and other unimaginable enemies of business/economy to destroy the future ahead of this company.

Their raw material is cash, their product is cash, they do most of what banks do, but are not aggressively regulated like banks. The microfinance arm is a highway to grabbing every dime on the streets and local markets. I go hold this one tight, even if money to top up no dey.

Rubyjade:
I have over ₦400,000

What's the best stock to buy? I would really appreciate recommendations.
I will do my own due diligence

Thank you for your anticipated response.

Depends on your investment goals and kind of play.
Goal types: value retention, money doubling, steady income etc.
Play type: Investor vs trader, one stock portfolio vs many stocks, sell in May and go away vs stay at all times etc.

I would buy a dividend-paying value stock of good public reputation (Zenith, UBA, etc) and use the March/April dividends to buy books. I'd cash out my capital and stay away till I have read books, learnt on this thread, and decided my goal type and play type.

NB: Your 400k has great potentials, and it is a potential school fees.

ositadima1:
My apologies for my aggression—I learned to talk like that here. You are absolutely right. Behind my slightly belligerent demeanor is a genuinely humane and respectful person. This online persona is just a social experiment. I would never speak to you like that in the real world. But here, in cyberspace, anything goes.

One love, brother! I apologize if my posts sounded unkind too.
Never doubted that you're humane and respectful. Please continue to be you and never stop enlightening us with your posts.
It is fun to read when you pull the legs of our honorable ladies on the forum, so I understand the social experiment