₦airaland Forum

malali:
Source: https://dailytrust.com/just-in-crude-falls-to-70-but-nigerian-marketers-maintain-n1200-pump-price/

What Should Petrol Really Cost In Nigeria When Crude Falls To $70? A Dangote Refinery Price Reality Check. by CharlesCNG.

Nigerians are right to ask why petrol prices do not fall as quickly as they rise. In a deregulated market, if crude oil rises, pump prices move up. If crude oil falls, consumers should also see relief. A market cannot be “deregulated” only when marketers want to increase prices.

But to know what petrol should cost, we must separate emotion from the pricing template.

Petrol price is not determined by crude oil alone. The final pump price includes crude cost, refining cost, refinery margin, financing cost, depot margin, transport, marketers’ margin, station operating cost, taxes/levies where applicable, and exchange rate.

As of July 2026, Dangote Refinery has reportedly cut its PMS ex-gantry price to ₦1,075 per litre, after earlier reductions from ₦1,250 to ₦1,175, then ₦1,125, and now ₦1,075. The Guardian reported that Dangote said the cumulative reduction was about ₦200 per litre since May 30, 2026, while also noting that the refinery was still processing crude bought at higher international prices.

Now let us do the arithmetic.

At $70 per barrel, crude oil costs about 44 cents per litre because one barrel contains about 159 litres.

Using an exchange rate around **₦1,370/$**, that gives a crude input cost of roughly:

$70 ÷ 159 = $0.44 per litre.
$0.44 × ₦1,370 = about ₦603 per litre.

So before refining, logistics and margins, the crude element alone is already around ₦600 per litre. The naira exchange rate is crucial here. Current market references put the official rate around the ₦1,369–₦1,380/$ range in early July 2026.

After crude cost, the refinery must recover refining cost, energy cost, chemicals, maintenance, financing, staff, depreciation, refinery margin and distribution-related costs. In the United States, the Energy Information Administration explains that gasoline retail prices are built from crude oil cost, refining costs/profits, distribution/marketing and taxes.

Using that global pricing logic, Dangote’s current ₦1,075 ex-gantry price is not completely out of line with a $70 crude environment when converted through Nigeria’s exchange rate. In fact, if we use a simplified U.S.-style no-subsidy template, a petrol price around ₦1,050–₦1,150 per litre ex-refinery/ex-depot is broadly defensible.

But the question is pump price.

If Dangote sells at ₦1,075 per litre ex-gantry, then a fair Lagos pump price should not still be ₦1,250–₦1,300 unless marketers can justify the spread.

A reasonable price band should look like this:

| Component | Estimated ₦/litre |
| ------------------------------------- | ----------------: |
| Dangote ex-gantry price | ₦1,075 |
| Depot/marketer margin | ₦20–₦40 |
| Transport/logistics within Lagos axis | ₦15–₦35 |
| Retail station margin/operating cost | ₦30–₦50 |
| **Reasonable Lagos pump price** | ₦1,140–₦1,200|

For Abuja and farther locations, transport and distribution costs are higher. So a reasonable range may be:

| Location | Reasonable pump price range |
| ---------------------------------------- | --------------------------: |
| Lagos/Ogun axis | ₦1,140–₦1,200 |
| South-West outside Lagos | ₦1,160–₦1,220 |
| Abuja/North-Central | ₦1,190–₦1,250 |
| Far North/South-East depending logistics | ₦1,220–₦1,280 |

So if Lagos is still selling above ₦1,200 after Dangote’s ex-gantry price has fallen to ₦1,075**, consumers have a legitimate question: what exactly is the additional margin covering?

Now compare with a U.S. refinery without subsidy.

At $70 crude and ₦1,370/$, the crude component is still about **₦603 per litre**. If crude represents roughly half of the final U.S. retail gasoline price, then the full unsubsidised retail equivalent would be around **₦1,200–₦1,300 per litre**, depending on taxes, refining margins, state rules and distribution costs. But if you remove heavy U.S. taxes, the no-subsidy, pre-tax equivalent falls closer to **₦1,050–₦1,150 per litre**.

That is why Dangote’s **₦1,075 ex-gantry price** is not strange. What needs scrutiny is the gap between ex-gantry and pump price.

The FCCPC is also correct to raise the competition question. Its Executive Vice Chairman, Tunji Bello, reportedly clarified that the FCCPC does not regulate petroleum prices in a deregulated market, but it can question anti-competitive behaviour, unfair practices and one-sided market conduct. The commission’s concern is simple: marketers respond quickly when crude rises, but respond slowly when crude falls.

That is the heart of the matter.

Dangote has reduced ex-gantry prices. Crude has fallen. The naira has been relatively stable around the ₦1,370/$ region. Therefore, the fair expectation is that petrol should now be moving toward ₦1,150–₦1,200 per litre in Lagos**, and around **₦1,200–₦1,280** in farther locations, depending on logistics.

So my conclusion is this:

At today’s crude and exchange-rate realities, petrol should not be ₦900 per litre. That would likely require either cheaper crude, stronger naira, subsidy, or a very compressed margin.

But petrol should also not remain stubbornly around **₦1,300** in Lagos if Dangote is selling at **₦1,075 ex-gantry**.

The realistic fair price today is not political propaganda.

It is around **₦1,150–₦1,200 in Lagos**, with higher prices outside Lagos justified only by transparent transport and distribution costs.

If marketers want Nigerians to accept deregulation, then deregulation must work both ways.

When crude rises, prices rise.

When crude falls, prices must fall too.

joeyswift:
I am not an Obi fan, but the way people talk about him like he is the president ,made me to start digging deep and I found myself tilting more towards him.

My friend, I cannot speak for everybody, but I can speak for myself.

I talk about Peter Obi because Peter Obi keeps presenting himself as the alternative. He is not a private citizen sitting quietly in Onitsha drinking tea. He is a presidential candidate, a political actor, and the man his supporters keep advertising as Nigeria’s rescue mission.

So why should he not be scrutinised?

More importantly, Obi himself keeps talking. And each time he talks, he exposes more questions about his intellectual depth, policy clarity, political consistency and leadership temperament. .

When a man who wants to govern over 200 million people makes claims, throws accusations, or presents himself as the moral standard, serious people must respond.

That is not obsession. That is democratic scrutiny.

Have you seen Atiku talking recklessly, carelessly and contradicting himself every market day like Peter Obi? No.

Atiku talks less, chooses his words more carefully, and does not run a daily commentary ministry where every microphone becomes an opportunity to expose confusion.

That is why people talk less about him online.

Peter Obi, on the other hand, keeps presenting himself as the national alternative while speaking in slogans, insinuations, half-digested policy lines and victimhood soundbites. Naturally, people will respond.

You cannot be the loudest man selling yourself as Nigeria’s rescue package and then complain when Nigerians open the package to inspect what is inside.

Also, his supporters are everywhere on social media, attacking government, abusing critics, spreading half-truths, calling people paid agents, and pretending their candidate is above examination.

When they lie, people will respond.

When they insult, people will answer.

When they sell Obi as the alternative, people will inspect the product.

That is politics.

In the run-up to the last US election, Democrats talked about Trump constantly, sometimes even more than they talked about Kamala Harris, because Trump was the alternative they wanted to scrutinise. Nobody called that obsession. It was political contestation.

Talking about the alternative is not strange.

Scrutinising the alternative is not hatred.

If Obi cannot survive questions as a candidate, how will he survive pressure as President?

So if my criticism makes you “tilt towards him,” that is your choice.

But do not blame the torchlight because the room is dirty.

haffaze777:
Tinubu supporters are not Buhari supporters.Tinubu supporters are not ready for any bully from any Obidient

I agree to an extent.

The Buhari years saw some of the harshest political rhetoric in recent history. Buhari was called everything by the obidient headless mob including the bizarre "Jubril from Sudan" conspiracy. He was mocked over his health, his certificate, his family and virtually every aspect of his presidency.

That period also normalised a style of political engagement where personal abuse often replaced argument.

What many Tinubu supporters are saying today is simple: they are not prepared to absorb that style of engagement in silence.

If you bring facts, expect facts in return.

If you bring arguments, expect arguments.

But if you bring insults, abuse and intimidation as political strategy, don't be surprised when you receive robust pushback instead of quiet tolerance.

2027 will not be 2023.

Many people who watched the toxicity of the last election have resolved that political disagreement does not require surrender.

Debate is welcome.

Bullying is not.

abc115:
Governor Caleb Mutfwang of Plateau State, on Thursday declared that the state is solidly behind President Bola Tinubu.

Mutfwang said Tinubu has shown commitment towards helping Plateau State to be better.

"For us in Plateau State, it is TINUBU or nothing......"

Governor Caleb Mutfwang pic.twitter.com/Sn75rkRt86

— Ayekooto (@DeeOneAyekooto) July 2, 2026

Speaking during the inauguration of Baban Lamba-Sharam road, the governor said Tinubu is poised towards turning around the fortune of Nigerians.

https://dailypost.ng/2026/07/02/in-plateau-its-tinubu-or-nothing-gov-caleb-mutfwang/

Plateau 2027: Why Mutfwang’s “Tinubu Or Nothing” Statement Is Not Ordinary Politics. by CharlesCNG

Governor Caleb Mutfwang’s declaration that Plateau State is solidly behind President Bola Tinubu should not be treated as casual political praise. In Plateau politics, that statement may represent one of the most important realignments ahead of 2027.

To understand why, go back to 2023.

Peter Obi won Plateau State with 466,272 votes. Tinubu came second with 307,195/307,196 votes, while Atiku scored 243,808 and Kwankwaso got 8,869. Obi won 11 of the 17 LGAs, while APC and PDP won 3 LGAs each.

But the numbers also show why 2027 may be different.

In 2023, Plateau was one of the clearest examples of the religious and emotional force behind the Obi wave. The Muslim-Muslim ticket controversy was hot. Christian anxiety was high. The Labour Party brand became a protest vehicle for many voters in Plateau, especially in urban and Christian-heavy areas.

Look at Jos South. Obi scored 112,874 there, while Tinubu got only 15,985 and Atiku got 13,803. That was not an ordinary party vote. That was a wave.

Now look at Jos North. Obi scored 70,357, Tinubu scored 65,656, while Atiku scored 22,528. Jos North is politically and religiously more mixed than Jos South, and the result shows something interesting: even at the peak of the Obi wave and Muslim-Muslim ticket anger, Tinubu still remained extremely competitive in Jos North. Obi beat him there by only 4,701 votes.

That Jos North result is important because it shows that the Plateau 2023 Obi victory was not a total rejection of Tinubu. It was a coalition of protest, religion, youth anger, Labour Party enthusiasm and PDP fragmentation.

The LGA results tell the full story.

Obi dominated the Christian/protest belt: Barkin Ladi gave him 32,489 against APC’s 12,514; Bokkos gave him 32,581 against APC’s 10,858; Mangu gave him 39,387 against APC’s 22,691 and PDP’s 27,013; Pankshin gave him 25,450 against APC’s 11,019 and PDP’s 12,225.
But APC also had hard zones. Tinubu won Wase with 28,675 against Obi’s 6,080 and Atiku’s 23,049. He won Kanam with 41,186 against Obi’s 4,769 and Atiku’s 24,843. These were not accidental votes; they were APC’s durable base in Plateau.
So what changed after 2023?

First, the Muslim-Muslim ticket narrative has cooled. It still exists as a talking point, but it no longer has the same freshness, shock value and mobilisation power it had in February 2023. In 2023, many Plateau voters were voting against fear. In 2027, many will be asked to vote based on alignment, projects, access, security response, governor’s direction and local political structure.

Second, the Labour Party / obi wave- due to obi's reckless platform hopping antics, has not converted into durable Plateau state structure. In the 2023 governorship election, Labour did not win Plateau. Caleb Mutfwang of the PDP became governor. That alone showed that many voters separated their presidential protest vote from their state-level power calculation.

Now connect that to 2027.

If Governor Mutfwang is now openly saying Plateau is behind Tinubu, then the 2027 Plateau equation changes completely.
The old PDP structure, the state government machinery, local government chairmen, councillors, commissioners, appointees, and grassroots PDP networks now, unlike 2023, works for Tinubu. On the other side, the old APC presidential structure is already Tinubu’s natural base.

That means the two major structures that were divided in 2023 may become aligned in 2027.

In 2023, Tinubu faced Obi’s religious/protest wave, PDP’s governorship structure, and Labour’s emotional mobilisation at the same time. Yet he still scored about 307,000 votes in Plateau.

In 2027, if the governor’s structure, old PDP networks and APC machinery are all leaning toward Tinubu, the real question is no longer whether Tinubu can get 25% in Plateau.

The real question is whether Obi or any opposition candidate can reproduce the 2023 Plateau wave without the same religious shock, without the same Labour/obi novelty, without the same united Christian protest mood, and with the sitting PDP governor openly and firmly on Tinubu's side.

That is why Jos North is the warning sign.

At the height of Obi’s wave, Obi beat Tinubu in Jos North by only 4,701 votes. If the mood cools, if the PDP structure shifts, if the governor’s people work for Tinubu, and if APC retains its base, that kind of margin can disappear very quickly.

Jos South may remain difficult because Obi’s 2023 margin there was enormous. But Plateau is not Jos South alone. Wase, Kanam, Shendam, Qua’an Pan, Jos North, Kanke, Mikang and parts of the central belt can all behave differently under a new alignment.

This is why Mutfwang’s statement matters.

It is not just endorsement.

It is a signal.

It suggests that the 2023 Plateau map may not repeat itself in 2027. Obi’s Plateau victory was powered by a moment. Tinubu’s 2027 opportunity may be powered by structure.

And in Nigerian politics, when emotion cools and structure aligns, yesterday’s wave can become tomorrow’s footnote.

Antoeni:
Maybe Atiku Saw His Nuisance Value. His Greed, Deciet, Hypocrisy And Double Standard.

At Least His Accommodation Problem Has Finally Been Taken Care of

Don’t Cry for Brother Kenneth

I will not pretend Kenneth Okonkwo is my friend. He is not.

But this cheap Obidient propaganda that he left because of “accommodation problem” is exactly why serious people no longer take their choir seriously. The man has been living in Abuja, in a mansion-like residence, for years. So this childish “flat and accommodation” story is not analysis. It is the usual Obidient emergency lie, manufactured to destroy anyone who leaves their altar.

But Kenneth should not cry too much.

He deserves part of what is coming to him because he dined with the Obidient beast when the table was sweet. He helped feed the same mob culture that now wants to eat him. When he was defending Obi, the mob was holy. Now that he is criticising Obi, the mob has become toxic.

No, Brother Kenneth. It was always toxic. You only discovered the poison when the cup was served to you.

That movement does not debate dissenters. It excommunicates them. Like all political cults, once you leave the shrine, they do not ask why. They call you hungry, bitter, paid, rented, tribal, fake and compromised.

As for Peter Obi, this is the danger of building a movement on sainthood instead of structure. The moment an insider speaks, the choir panics.

And Atiku? If he truly welcomed Kenneth, maybe he saw his nuisance value. In politics, even a former choir master can become a useful whistleblower.

So don’t cry for Brother Kenneth.

He joined the mob when it was biting others.

Now the teeth have found his own trouser.

Ewedegubbler:
À gosling believing itself to be an eagle

The ram stood up.

The goat stood up.

The antelope stood up.

The cow stood up.

Then, from the corner, the snail slowly lifted its two tiny feelers and shouted: “Me too!”

That, in one small picture, is the political comedy of GRV in Lagos.

A gosling believing itself to be an eagle.

A snail mistaking antenna for horns.

Ambition is allowed. Confidence is allowed. But politics is not cosplay.
Lagos is not a drama stage where borrowed outrage, Twitter applause and elite salon endorsement automatically become grassroots structure.

Some people confuse social-media echo with political altitude.

But no matter how loudly a gosling flaps, an eagle knows the difference.

LibertyRep:
Judiciary will be praised to the high heavens today.
Congratulations to the ADC.

But the day court rulings won't favour you, don't castigate the judiciary o

Once there was a roll call of animals with horns.

The ram stood up.

The goat stood up.

The antelope stood up.

The cow stood up.

Then, from the corner, the snail slowly lifted its two tiny feelers and shouted: “Me too!”

That, in one small picture, is the political comedy of GRV in Lagos.

A gosling believing itself to be an eagle.

A snail mistaking antenna for horns.

Ambition is allowed. Confidence is allowed. But politics is not cosplay.
Lagos is not a drama stage where borrowed outrage, Twitter applause and elite salon endorsement automatically become grassroots structure.

Some people confuse social-media echo with political altitude.

But no matter how loudly a gosling flaps, an eagle knows the difference.

Antoeni:
Now We Can See Sister Kenneth Okonkwo in Channels Television Please Mr. Peter Obi Lawyers Should Take Note So The Letter Can Be Proudly Be Delivered to Him There in Person, is Like Channels is His New Home Now

Obidients and the Keneth Okonkwo's Address Mischief: When Law Starts Looking Like Optics. by CharlesCNG

There is another angle in this Kenneth Okonkwo versus Peter Obi drama that should not be ignored: the service-of-process controversy.

According to public reports, Obi filed the defamation suit at the **Onitsha Judicial Division of the Anambra State High Court**, even though the alleged defamatory statements were made during a Channels Television appearance and Okonkwo is widely associated with Abuja political circles. Reports also say the court later granted substituted service after Obi’s lawyers claimed they could not serve him personally. The service order reportedly related to an address in Nsukka, Enugu State.

Now, let us be clear: substituted service is legal. Courts use it where personal service becomes difficult. Filing in a state high court is also not automatically illegal merely because the defendant lives elsewhere.

But politics is not only about legality. It is also about optics, fairness and motive.

This is where the matter becomes interesting.

The lawyers involved in this fight are not strangers to Kenneth Okonkwo. These are people who worked closely with him during the presidential election petition season. They know he is not a ghost. They know he is not hiding in one forest. They know he is based in Abuja. They know he has a known public presence and, according to his own side, lives in his own self-built Abuja home.

So why the drama?

Why run to Onitsha High Court for a matter arising from a television appearance, then attempt service in Nsukka, while the man is publicly reachable in Abuja?

That is where the mischief begins to smell.

If this was purely about justice, serve the man where you know he can be found. If the case is strong, meet him cleanly in court. But if you deliberately chase shadows, then allow your online choir to shout “Kenneth is running,” that is not law. That is propaganda choreography.

And this is the typical Obidient optics game.

First, create a service drama.
Then frame the opponent as evasive.
Then let the mob shout “he is afraid.”
Then use the confusion as political content.

But Kenneth Okonkwo is not hiding. He has been on television. He has been issuing statements. He has been practically daring them to face the substance of his allegations.

So the question remains: are they trying to try the case in court, or are they trying to try Kenneth Okonkwo in the court of Obidient social media?

Because if the case is strong, the route should be simple:

Serve him properly.
Face him squarely.
Argue the facts.
Win on merit.

But this Onitsha-to-Nsukka drama, when Abuja is sitting there waving at everybody, looks less like confidence and more like carefully staged optics.

The Obidient mob may enjoy the noise, but serious people can see the pattern.

When they cannot win the argument, they try to win the headline.

Kenneth Okonkwo: The Groom With Itching Feet Has Found Another Wedding Reception. by CharlesCNG

So Kenneth Okonkwo has now been congratulated by the Atiku Support Organisation as Atiku’s 2027 campaign spokesperson. Interesting development indeed. Reports also confirm Atiku has appointed him as spokesperson for the 2027 campaign.

Kenneth Okonkwo’s brief exit over Atiku’s reported preference for Amaechi instead of a South-East VP is like a groom storming out of the wedding rehearsal because the bride changed the aso-ebi colour, only to return once the microphone and front-row seat were still available.

He shouted about principle, complained about a broken promise, and frowned at the South-East being sidelined. Fair enough. But before the political soup could even get cold, Brother Kenneth was already back inside the same marriage hall, adjusting his tie and answering “spokesman.”

That is why his politics is difficult to take seriously.

If the issue was principle, why return so quickly?

If the promise was broken, why resume the honeymoon?

If the South-East was betrayed, why collect the campaign microphone from the same table?



Brother Kenneth is fast becoming the most peripatetic lover in Nigerian opposition politics. Yesterday, he was in Obi’s political marriage, singing “for better, for worse.” Today, he has packed his box, changed agbada, and appeared at Atiku’s reception table as official spokesman.

This is not ordinary movement. This is political restless-leg syndrome.

The same man who accused one camp of weakness and indecision has now found comfort in another coalition room already full of old suitors, abandoned vows and recycled campaign rings.

At this point, Kenneth’s political CV is beginning to look like a wedding album from different marriages.

But let us thank him for one thing: he keeps proving that opposition politics today is not about ideology. It is about where the next microphone is standing.
At this point, Kenneth is not a political husband. He is a restless groom with itching feet — always threatening divorce, but never too far from the reception buffet.

Brother Kenneth has not just moved on.

He has moved again.

fuckJones:
Can you now tell us more about yes daddy's video?

Yes... in Okonkwo’s voice.

The “Yes Daddy” episode was that political family meeting where Peter Obi allegedly entered spiritual conference call mode with Bishop Oyedepo, and every “Yes Daddy” sounded like campaign strategy wearing choir robe.

When the audio came out, Labour people first tried to dodge, deny and deodorise it. But Kenneth Okonkwo, then still inside the Obi household, practically admitted the voice and tried to spin it as normal political communication.

Fast-forward today, the same Kenneth has left Obi’s parish, entered Atiku’s marriage registry, and is now preaching a new gospel from ADC pulpit.

So yes, let us talk about “Yes Daddy.”

It was the day politics wore cassock, campaign entered altar call, and Obidients discovered that even audio evidence can become “fake” once it embarrasses their messiah.

osuofia2:
Who else noticed that obidients aren't as violence online like 2023, they all seems quiet and humble

Where Did the Fire Go? The Quiet Humbling of the Obidient Mob. by CharlesCNG

Someone asked a very interesting question: who else noticed that Obidients are no longer as violent online as they were in 2023?

The answer is simple: political reality has humbled noise.

In 2023, the Obidient movement was at its loudest. It had hashtags, influencers, Twitter spaces, online mobs, celebrity endorsements, moral superiority, and an army of digital warriors who insulted anyone who questioned Peter Obi.

Many people were not persuaded by them; they were harassed by them.

But 2023 came and went.

Peter Obi ran. Nobody stopped him. He came third. The movement that boasted of a landslide ended up in court. The same people who mocked structure discovered that elections are not won by trending topics.

Since then, the movement has been bleeding politically. Labour Party has been in crisis. Kenneth Okonkwo, once one of Obi’s loudest spokesmen, left Labour and parted ways with Obi, blaming leadership failure. Doyin Okupe, Obi’s former campaign DG, also left Labour and later said Tinubu was the best candidate among the 2023 contenders. Valentine Ozigbo, a known Obi ally in Anambra, left Labour for APC. Akin Osuntokun, another former Obi campaign DG, moved to ADC. These are not random foot soldiers; they were megaphones of the movement. Their exits tell a story.

The Obidient movement is quieter today because its illusion has been tested. The online thunder did not become national structure. The abuse did not become coalition. The hashtags did not become governorship machinery. The moral arrogance did not become 25 percent spread across Nigeria.

And now, many of them are beginning to understand that the damage is already done.

Their 2023 behaviour pushed away many people who might have listened to Obi. They insulted potential allies. They abused undecided voters. They attacked clerics, elders, journalists, opposition figures and even fellow Igbo politicians who did not worship their candidate. They mistook intimidation for persuasion.

That was self-sabotage.

Politics is not evangelism by insult. You cannot abuse people for four years and expect them to join your coalition in the fifth. You cannot call everybody corrupt, tribal, paid or stupid, then complain that your candidate is isolated.

The tragedy is that the movement is trying to become humble after burning too many bridges.

Their candidate’s chances have suffered because his loudest followers became his worst advertisement. They made Obi look intolerant by association. They turned a reform message into a cultic shouting match. They made disagreement feel dangerous.

So yes, the Obidients appear quieter today.

But it is not because they suddenly discovered wisdom.

It is because reality has reduced the volume.

The mob has not disappeared. It has only learned that noise is not power.

And for Peter Obi, that lesson may have come too late.

loffyloffy:
Good points, but let's take a closer look at his hold over Kano. Can we honestly say his coalition is still strong?

Remember, even with his coalition, APC still got 500k votes to his 900k. As of today, the APC base is mostly solid and has made some big moves into the Kwankasiya movement. The governor he helped elect is now in APC, along with many of his supporters.

It wouldn't be crazy to think he's lost almost 200k of his previous 900k votes to APC by now.

I predict a tight election in Kano state between APC and NDC. Outside Kano, NDC will do terribly in other NW and NE states. NC will be as split as last time.

I can't imagine anything other than an APC landslide.

Kano 2027: Kwankwaso’s Red Cap Is No Longer Sitting on the Same Head.

Good point, but let us even go further: anyone still treating Kano as automatic Kwankwaso territory is reading 2023 with 2027 eyes closed.

In 2023, Kwankwaso won Kano presidentially with **997,279 votes**, while Tinubu still pulled **517,341 votes** on the APC platform. That was not a wipeout. That was a strong Kwankwaso victory against an APC base that still refused to disappear. The governorship was even tighter: Abba Kabir Yusuf of NNPP won with **1,019,602 votes**, while APC’s Nasir Gawuna scored **890,705 votes**. That is a margin of about **128,897 votes** in a state where people talk as if APC was buried.

Now fast-forward to 2026. The man Kwankwaso helped install as governor, **Abba Kabir Yusuf**, has defected to APC. He did not move alone. Reports say he moved with **22 members of the Kano State House of Assembly**, **nine federal lawmakers**, and later reports also noted local government chairmen aligning with the move. That is not a small crack. That is the roof shifting.

Then look at the Senate structure. Deputy Senate President **Barau Jibrin** remains a major APC pillar in Kano North. He won in 2023 despite the Kwankwaso wave, and he has now been affirmed as APC’s Kano North senatorial candidate for 2027. In Kano Central, **Ibrahim Shekarau** is back in APC calculations as the consensus candidate. Remember, Shekarau was declared winner of the Kano Central senatorial election in 2023 under the NNPP label before the Supreme Court affirmed Rufai Hanga as the lawful NNPP candidate. That means Shekarau’s name still carried serious electoral weight in that district.

In Kano South, APC also has Abdulrahman Kawu Sumaila as part of its senatorial structure for 2027. So APC is not entering Kano as a begging opposition. It is entering with the governor, deputy senate president, senatorial candidates, lawmakers, local structures and federal power.

That is why the assumption that Kwankwaso can simply reproduce his 2023 Kano vote is politically lazy.

In 2023, he was the candidate. The red cap was on the ballot. The emotional ownership was direct. In 2027, if he is only a coalition backer and not the man leading the presidential ticket, the transferability of his vote becomes a serious question. Kano voters may love Kwankwaso, but loving Kwankwaso is not the same as automatically voting for every coalition product he endorses.

This is where NDC has a real problem.

Kwankwaso’s 2023 strength was personal, local and Kano-heavy. Outside Kano, the NNPP performed poorly across most of the North-West and North-East. If NDC is banking on Kwankwaso to deliver the North, they may discover that he was more of a Kano fortress than a northern hurricane.

And even that Kano fortress has now lost walls.

With Abba Yusuf gone to APC, with lawmakers moving, with Shekarau positioned in Kano Central, with Barau holding Kano North, and with APC still retaining a hard base of over half a million presidential votes even at Kwankwaso’s peak, it is not wild to suggest that Kwankwaso may have lost a serious chunk of his 2023 vote.

I will not even be surprised if he has lost more than 50 percent of that old presidential strength by election day, especially if he is not the candidate and if NDC becomes another coalition of wounded ambitions.

Kano politics has always been about power blocs: Kwankwasiyya, Gandujiyya, Shekarau’s old network, federal alignment, religious/community structures, local government machinery and grassroots patronage. In 2023, Kwankwaso had momentum. In 2027, APC is assembling machinery.

That is the difference.

So yes, Kano may be tight. But the old argument that “Kwankwaso owns Kano” needs serious review.

The red cap still has history.

But APC now has the governor, the structure and the defectors.

And in Nigerian politics, structure does not clap for nostalgia.

ZombieTERROR:
Adeyemi Martins name Will not ring a bell

This is a name that has received billions under this administration with an agency that exists only on paper.

How else can one define corruption

Another dispatch from the Ministry of Obidient Emotional Affairs.

There is already a thread on Adeyemi Martins and that alleged paper agency issue. If that is the topic you want to discuss, go there and discuss it fully.

But as usual, you did not come here to debate the topic of this thread.

You came to derail.

That is the typical Obidient method: once the argument in front of you becomes uncomfortable, quickly drag another issue into the room and start shouting “corruption,” “failure,” “billions,” “Tinubu,” as if throwing emotional grenades is the same thing as making a point.

Nobody said corruption should not be discussed.

Nobody said government should not be questioned.

Nobody said any allegation should be swept under the carpet.

But this thread is not about Adeyemi Martins. This thread is about the issue being discussed here. If you have a rebuttal, bring it. If the argument is wrong, expose it. If the facts are weak, correct them.


You people want every thread to become one long anti-Tinubu lamentation service. Sorry, Nairaland is not your political mourning ground. Different topics can exist at the same time.

So go and discuss Adeyemi Martins on the Adeyemi Martins thread.

Here, answer the argument — or admit that you only came to change the subject.

TokoEkambi:
But but but but oBiDiEnTs ArE nOt OnLy IgBoS.
Those things are only worth being comic relief.

You are replying to what was not said.

I have never said all Obidients are Igbo. In fact, if you had read my manual on “How To Spot Obidients On Nairaland,” you would have seen that I made the point very clearly: Obidient behaviour on Nairaland has no compulsory ethnic colouration.

There are Igbo Obidients.

There are Yoruba Obidients.

There are Hausa Obidients.

There are South-South Obidients.

There are Middle Belt Obidients.

There are even some people who are not card-carrying Obidients but behave exactly like them online.

So yes, I agree with you: not all Peter Obi supporters are Igbo.

But that was never my argument.

My argument is that you can usually spot an Obidient by the familiar feathers: intolerance, abuse, selective outrage, emotional blackmail, inability to tolerate criticism of Obi, and the habit of calling every opposing view tribalistic, paid or foolish.

That is why I said if it quacks like an Obidient, insults like an Obidient, dodges facts like an Obidient and shouts “tribalism” whenever Tinubu is defended, forgive me for recognising the duck.

This is not about ethnicity.

It is about conduct.

A decent Obi supporter who argues with facts is not the problem. A critic of Tinubu who argues intelligently is not the problem. But the online foot soldiers who abuse, bully, deflect, label people and try to censor every argument they dislike are exactly the people being described.

So please, stop hiding behind “Obidients are not only Igbo.”

Nobody said they were.

The issue is not their tribe.

The issue is their feathers.

CharlesCNG:
One of the oldest tricks in Nigerian politics is to dismiss support for a politician as tribalism rather than engage the reasons for that support.

Curiously, this accusation is not applied equally.

In 1979 and 1983, many Yorubas who supported Chief Obafemi Awolowo were routinely dismissed as tribalists. Yet supporters of Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe and the NPP were rarely subjected to the same blanket judgment.

In 1998 and 2003, Yorubas who rallied behind Chief Olusegun Obasanjo were accused of ethnic solidarity. Yet when many Igbos supported Dr. Alex Ekwueme in the PDP primaries, few described it as tribalism.

The double standard persists today.

If a Yoruba commentator criticizes Tinubu, he is praised as objective and courageous. If another Yoruba supports Tinubu, he is immediately branded a tribalist.

If a Yoruba elder supports Peter Obi, he is celebrated as detribalized and enlightened. But if an Igbo politician supports Tinubu, he is often denounced as a traitor to his people.

One is left wondering whether this reflects a subtle superiority complex: support for one candidate is assumed to be principled, while support for another must be explained by ethnicity.

The truth is simpler.

People support politicians for many reasons—ideology, performance, policy preferences, personal conviction, or sometimes ethnicity. But it is intellectually dishonest to assume tribal motives only when the support benefits the candidate you oppose.

The real question is not whether Tinubu is Yoruba.

The real question is whether the arguments for or against his policies are sound.

For when a man cannot answer your argument, he often settles for explaining your ancestry.

And when facts become inconvenient, ethnicity becomes the emergency exit.

The Yoruba Test: When Objectivity Suddenly Depends On Who You Support.

Let me add another angle to this discussion.

The way some people define “detribalised Yoruba” is very funny.

If a Yoruba man attacks Tinubu, he is immediately called courageous, enlightened, independent-minded and detribalised.

If another Yoruba man supports Tinubu, even with arguments, evidence or policy reasons, he is quickly branded a tribalist.

So the test of objectivity is no longer whether your argument is sound.

The test is now whether your opinion is useful to the anti-Tinubu crowd.

That is not objectivity. That is political blackmail.

A Yoruba man does not become intelligent because he supports Peter Obi e.g Rufai Oseni.
He does not become foolish because he supports Tinubu. He does not become detribalised because he attacks APC.

He does not become tribalistic because he defends a Yoruba president.

The same way an Igbo man should not be called a traitor simply because he supports Tinubu, and a Hausa man should not be called backward simply because he supports Atiku, Kwankwaso or any northern candidate.

People are allowed to make political choices without first surrendering their ethnic certificate to the approval committee of angry partisans.


The real issue is simple: some people are not against tribal politics. They are only against tribal politics that does not favour their candidate.

They want the right to explain their own political choices as principle, but explain your own political choices as ethnicity.

That is intellectual fraud.

Dalohad:
CharlesCNG, this guy is one of the yorubas you guys call 'Omo Ale', because he stand against the ineptitude of your Tinubu.

Can you remind me the Igbo name your baptised him with?

Delechukwu?

My brother, you people keep arguing with ghosts.

You said “Delechukwu.” I have never seen where anybody called Dele Farotimi “Delechukwu,” talk less of me calling him that. If you have evidence, bring it. If not, stop manufacturing accusations and then using your own invention as proof.

That is the problem with this Obidient style of argument. You first create a claim, then get angry at the claim you created, then accuse others of wickedness based on your own imagination.

The truth is that many Yoruba people are politically liberal. In fact, many Yoruba voters, especially in urban centres, voted for Peter Obi in 2023. Lagos itself is evidence. Obi did not win Lagos with Igbo votes alone. Many Yoruba, young professionals, Christians, urban voters and anti-APC protest voters supported him.

So this attempt to paint Yoruba politics as one tribal block is dishonest.

There are many Yoruba people who do not support Tinubu. There are many Yoruba people who voted Obi. There are many Yoruba people who criticise APC openly. Nobody needs your permission to be Yoruba.

But the funny thing is this: once a Yoruba man supports Obi, Obidients call him “detribalised.” Once another Yoruba man supports Tinubu, he becomes “tribalist,” “area boy,” “Omo ale caller,” or “ethnic bigot.”

So Yoruba people are only good when they are useful to your candidate?

That is not detribalisation. That is political convenience.

You people want to reserve moral purity for any Yoruba who supports Obi, while automatically condemning any Yoruba who supports Tinubu. That is the same identity politics you pretend to hate.

A Yoruba man can support Obi without becoming a saint.

A Yoruba man can support Tinubu without becoming a tribalist.

A Yoruba man can oppose Tinubu without being “Omo ale.”

A Yoruba man can criticise Obi without needing ethnic rehabilitation.

This is democracy, not ethnic baptism.

So please, stop hiding behind imaginary “Delechukwu” stories. If your argument is that some Yoruba people have used ethnic insults before, condemn them. I will not defend nonsense. But do not use alleged Yoruba bad behaviour as an excuse to justify Obidient intolerance.

Two wrongs do not become political wisdom simply because your side committed the second one.

AirBere:
There's nothing formidable about Tinubu. If there's a free snd fair election, he won't win. Election in Nigeria/African is a do or die affair. That's why he may win again. If it's fair, zero chance.

If Not Tinubu, Then Who? The Opposition Must Answer The Question It Keeps Dodging.

This “Tinubu cannot win a free and fair election” line sounds sweet to the ears of angry opposition supporters, but it avoids the real question.

If not Tinubu, then who?

Peter Obi?

Let us be serious.

Peter Obi contested in 2023 at the height of his political wave. That was when the Obidient movement was at its loudest, the youth anger was fresh, the cashless-policy frustration was hot, the Muslim-Muslim ticket controversy was intense, the churches were more politically activated, and social media had practically turned him into a political messiah.

Yet, at the height of that wave, Obi still came third nationally. Tinubu won with 8,794,726 votes, Atiku came second with 6,984,520, while Obi came third with 6,101,533. Kwankwaso followed with 1,496,687.

So the question is simple: if Obi could not win when his movement was at peak temperature, what has improved for him since then?

Has his platform become stronger? No.

Has the opposition become more united? No. I

Has Obi expanded dramatically beyond his 2023 comfort zones? Where is the evidence?

In 2023, Obi’s strength was powered by a combination of factors: South-East identity, Christian protest vote, urban youth anger, anti-APC frustration, Muslim-Muslim ticket backlash, and social-media energy. Those factors gave him a historic wave, yes, but even that wave had limits.

He did not win the North-West.

He did not win the North-East.

He did not win the South-West.

He did not win the South-South as a whole.

He did well in selected urban centres, the South-East, parts of the North-Central, and some Christian/protest-heavy areas. That is not enough to become President of Nigeria.

And since 2023, some of the emotional forces that helped him have weakened. The novelty has reduced. The religious outrage has cooled. Some of his loudest former defenders are now elsewhere. The coalition arithmetic is confused. Kwankwaso’s Kano vote is not automatically transferable. So where exactly is the new winning path?

It is not enough to shout “Tinubu is unpopular.”

Unpopular compared to whom?

Compared to Obi, who came third at his peak?

Compared to Atiku, who has contested with a powerful PDP structure and eleven loyal governors ( less five ) still could not cross the line?

Politics is not anger management. It is structure, spread, funding, alliances, polling-unit presence, governors, local influencers, regional acceptance and voter persuasion.

So when someone says Tinubu has zero chance in a free election, I simply ask: against which opposition candidate with national spread?

ZombieTERROR:
Open to voices of deception, propaganda and deceit while Nigerians suffer

How To Spot An Obidient On Nairaland: A User Guide .

Not everyone who criticises Tinubu is an Obidient. Not everyone who disagrees with Pastor Adeboye is an Obidient. Not everyone who supports opposition politics is an Obidient.

But there is a pattern.

If it quacks like an Obidient, insults like an Obidient, dodges facts like an Obidient, and shouts “data boy” like an Obidient, forgive me for recognising the duck.

You can usually spot them by the familiar feathers.

First, they rarely answer the issue. If you raise facts, they attack your motive. If you ask for evidence, they say you are paid. If you question Peter Obi, they say you are working for APC. If you defend a point they dislike, they call you “data boy.”

Second, they confuse abuse with intelligence. Instead of argument, you get insults. Instead of data, you get slogans. Instead of reasoning, you get “fake certificate,” “snatch and grab,” “criminal,” and other recycled chants.

Third, they practice selective outrage. When a pastor, activist or elder appears to support Obi, he is a voice of conscience. But if the same type of public figure says something that does not serve their political anger, he becomes tribal, fake, compromised or useless.

Fourth, they dodge facts like rain. Present figures, they change topic. Present history, they shout propaganda. Present voting patterns, they reply with emotion.

So no, I do not call people Obidient simply because they disagree with me. I notice the uniform: abuse first, evidence last.

If it walks like selective outrage, quacks like political intolerance, and swims comfortably in insult, I do not need DNA test to know the species.

You can deny being Obidient, but if your argument came from the usual insult factory, do not blame me for identifying the manufacturer.

Ahayalift:
I don't agree with you on this, Kano has massive number of Voters and Obi/Kwakwasho is likely to win next election, although the awesome Yoruba cloth really fits Baba Kwakwasho with that his classy awesome smile (I just love the man).

Kwankwaso’s Kano Vote: Personal Power Is Not The Same As Transferable Power. by CharlesCNG.

This is where coalition calculators often get it wrong.

In 2023, Kwankwaso was not merely endorsing a presidential candidate in Kano. He was the presidential candidate.

He was the face of the ballot, the emotional centre of the campaign, the owner of the Kwankwasiyya structure, and the man his followers were directly voting for.

The result showed it clearly. In the Kano presidential election, Kwankwaso scored 997,279 votes. Tinubu came second with **517,341 votes**. Atiku scored 131,716, while Obi got 28,513. That means Kwankwaso defeated Tinubu in Kano by 479,938 votes. That was a personal political landslide.

But now compare that with the Kano governorship election, where Kwankwaso was no longer the candidate on the ballot. He was the endorser, the godfather and the political sponsor of Abba Kabir Yusuf.

In that governorship election, NNPP’s Abba Kabir Yusuf scored 1,019,602 votes, while APC’s Nasir Gawuna scored 890,705 votes. The NNPP still won, yes, but the margin dropped to 128,897 votes.

That is the real lesson.

When Kwankwaso was personally on the presidential ballot, the margin over APC was almost 480,000 votes.

When he was only endorsing another man for governor, the margin over APC reduced to about 129,000 votes.

In other words, the margin shrank by more than 351,000 votes.

That is the difference between personal vote and transferable vote.

Even more interesting: NNPP’s governorship candidate got slightly more raw votes than Kwankwaso did in the presidential election — 1,019,602 versus 997,279 — but APC’s vote exploded from Tinubu’s 517,341 to Gawuna’s 890,705. So the real movement was that APC recovered massively once the election moved from “Kwankwaso himself” to “Kwankwaso’s candidate.”

That is why I keep saying politics is not arithmetic on paper.

You cannot simply say: “Kwankwaso got almost one million votes in Kano, therefore any coalition candidate he supports will inherit one million Kano votes.”

There is a difference between a man voting for Kwankwaso himself and that same man being asked to vote for another person because Kwankwaso endorsed him. Even in Kano, where Kwankwaso is most organic, the APC vote recovered heavily once Kwankwaso was no longer the direct candidate.

Now imagine the bigger 2027 question.

If Kwankwaso is not on top of the presidential ticket, can he persuade his Kano base to vote with the same emotion, same urgency and same loyalty for another presidential candidate?

That is already difficult.

If the person on top of the ticket is from the South-East, the challenge becomes even greater. This is not insult; it is political reality. Nigerian presidential voting is shaped by region, religion, trust, identity, local networks and voter psychology.


Can he transfer some votes? Yes.

Can he transfer all his 2023 votes? Very unlikely.

Can he reproduce the same emotional Kano wave for a ticket he is not leading? That is the mountain.


Even inside Kano, Kwankwaso’s endorsement did not produce the same dominance as Kwankwaso’s personal candidacy.

That is the difference between being the groom of the political wedding and being the best man.

When Kwankwaso is the groom, Kano dances differently.

When Kwankwaso is only the best man, Kano still listens — but not with the same obedience.

lightwind:
Ekiti election is what you call election ?

Dumbass people

How To Spot An Obidient On Nairaland: A User Guide.

Not everyone who criticises Tinubu is an Obidient. Not everyone who disagrees with Pastor Adeboye is an Obidient. Not everyone who supports opposition politics is an Obidient.

But there is a pattern.

If it quacks like an Obidient, insults like an Obidient, dodges facts like an Obidient, and shouts “data boy” like an Obidient, forgive me for recognising the duck.

You can usually spot them by the familiar feathers.

First, they rarely answer the issue. If you raise facts, they attack your motive. If you ask for evidence, they say you are paid. If you question Peter Obi, they say you are working for APC. If you defend a point they dislike, they call you “data boy.”

Second, they confuse abuse with intelligence. Instead of argument, you get insults. Instead of data, you get slogans. Instead of reasoning, you get “fake certificate,” “snatch and grab,” “criminal,” and other recycled chants.

Third, they practice selective outrage. When a pastor, activist or elder appears to support Obi, he is a voice of conscience. But if the same type of public figure says something that does not serve their political anger, he becomes tribal, fake, compromised or useless.

Fourth, they dodge facts like rain. Present figures, they change topic. Present history, they shout propaganda. Present voting patterns, they reply with emotion.

So no, I do not call people Obidient simply because they disagree with me. I notice the uniform: abuse first, evidence last.

If it walks like selective outrage, quacks like political intolerance, and swims comfortably in insult, I do not need DNA test to know the species.

You can deny being Obidient, but if your argument came from the usual insult factory, do not blame me for identifying the manufacturer.

ZombieTERROR:
The Op will not open thread about more than 30 Borno kids writing Neco that was abducted by Boko haram..

It's always about demeaning opposition, is Opposition the problem of Nigeria?.
APc has proven to bereft of ideas on how to pilot the affairs of the country..

Attack Kwankwaso all you want. it won't bring back the oyo children in the bush

Tinubu is a failure

Obidient deflection spotted.

My brother, I am not the only contributor on Nairaland, and I am not under obligation to open a thread on every tragedy, every policy issue, every kidnapping, every court case, every election, and every national crisis.

You and your fellow Obidients are free to open threads on any topic that interests you. I am also free to open threads on topics that interest me. That is the basic meaning of a public forum.

But this is the simple democratic principle many Obidients struggle with: there is no compulsory unanimity of opinion in a democracy.

Nairaland is not your WhatsApp group. It is not an Obidient prayer band.
It is not a place where only anti-Tinubu anger must be allowed to breathe.
It is a forum where different sides can argue, disagree, rebut and present competing narratives.

If you care about the abducted children, open the thread. I will not stop you. If you want to discuss insecurity, discuss it. But do not use tragedy- as you obidients do- as emotional blackmail to dictate what another person must write about.

That is bullying, not activism.

Your real anger is not that I failed to open a thread. Your anger is that I keep opening threads that challenge your political comfort zone.

And I will continue to do that.

Because some of us are determined to stand up to this anti-democratic Obidient habit of abuse, intimidation and narrative policing on Nairaland.

You want everyone to hear only the sound of your own angry voice.

Sorry, this forum is still open to other voices.

AMINDA:
Good. Thank you for affirming that the North made Tinubu president. He only won 4 states out of 17 Southern states and his entire margin in the South was nothing to write home about. You gave us the breakdown of votes from Lagos where he ruled for 8 years but didn't give us his breakdown in other APC-governed states in the South like Imo, Ebonyi and Cross Rivers. Bottomline is that having an APC governor is no guarantee for votes. You're welcome.

No, the North alone did not “make Tinubu president.” Tinubu became president because he built a formidable national coalition in 2023 — South-West base, North-West strength, North-Central spread, parts of the North-East, and strategic footholds in the South-South.

The figures prove it. Tinubu won the **South-West** with **2,279,407 votes**, but he actually got even more from the **North-West**, where he scored **2,652,235 votes** against Atiku’s **2,329,540**. So while Atiku won more individual North-West states, Tinubu won the zone in total votes. That is coalition politics, not ethnic accident.

Now look at Osun. In 2023, Atiku won Osun with **354,366 votes**, while Tinubu scored **343,945** — a margin of only **10,421 votes**. Obi had just **23,283**, and Kwankwaso **713**. So let us ask honestly: did Atiku really win Osun because Osun people suddenly became Atiku people? No. PDP structure, Adeleke’s popularity, and state-government momentum carried that vote.

Fast-forward to 2027, and that same Osun calculation has changed. Reports show that Governor Adeleke and Osun PDP leaders endorsed Tinubu’s re-election, while Osun APC also received defecting PDP federal lawmakers and endorsed Tinubu. In another report, Adeleke insisted that Accord in Osun would support Tinubu in 2027. That means the local structure that helped Atiku in 2023 is no longer naturally available against Tinubu in 2027.

This is what I call scientific projection: start from the last result, identify why it happened, then ask what has changed. Election projection is not prophecy. It is pattern analysis.

Having an APC governor does not automatically guarantee winning every state. I agree. But it greatly improves the chances of votes, especially where the target is not total victory but constitutional spread. In the South-East, for example, APC does not need to win every state to improve Tinubu’s 2027 position. It needs serious first-term governors and structures to deliver at least **25%** where possible.

That is why the “Tinubu cannot win” crowd keeps missing the point. They are reading 2027 with 2023 emotions, while the ground structure is already shifting.

I will give a state-by-state projection for every single northern state, and I will appeal to you to bookmark it.

I can also give a state-by-state projection for every southern state, and we can all debate it openly on this thread. Then, after the election results are announced, we can return to the projections and cross-check them against reality.

That is how serious political analysis should work.


state-by-state projection, voting history, current alignments, party structure, governors’ influence, local political mood, defections, candidate acceptability, and what has changed since the last election.

Politics is not only about who people liked yesterday.

Politics is also about who controls the machinery tomorrow.

ogolemati:

How To Spot An Obidient On Nairaland: A User Guide

Not everyone who criticises Tinubu is an Obidient. Not everyone who disagrees with Pastor Adeboye is an Obidient. Not everyone who supports opposition politics is an Obidient.

But there is a pattern.

If it quacks like an Obidient, insults like an Obidient, dodges facts like an Obidient, and shouts “data boy” like an Obidient, forgive me for recognising the duck.

You can usually spot them by the familiar feathers.

First, they rarely answer the issue. If you raise facts, they attack your motive. If you ask for evidence, they say you are paid. If you question Peter Obi, they say you are working for APC. If you defend a point they dislike, they call you “data boy.”

Second, they confuse abuse with intelligence. Instead of argument, you get insults. Instead of data, you get slogans. Instead of reasoning, you get “fake certificate,” “snatch and grab,” “criminal,” and other recycled chants.

Third, they practice selective outrage. When a pastor, activist or elder appears to support Obi, he is a voice of conscience. But if the same type of public figure says something that does not serve their political anger, he becomes tribal, fake, compromised or useless.

Fourth, they dodge facts like rain. Present figures, they change topic. Present history, they shout propaganda. Present voting patterns, they reply with emotion.

So no, I do not call people Obidient simply because they disagree with me. I notice the uniform: abuse first, evidence last.

If it walks like selective outrage, quacks like political intolerance, and swims comfortably in insult, I do not need DNA test to know the species.

You can deny being Obidient, but if your argument came from the usual insult factory, do not blame me for identifying the manufacturer.

Dalohad:
You yorubas call any yoruba man who does not support that your fraudulent gbana lord called Tinubu, an 'omo ale' (baztttarrds)

You question his lineage and look for one fictitious Igbo name and ascribe to him. You fraudulently trace his lineage to a non-existent Igbo great-grandfather or mother.

You did it against Jimi Agbaje- you called him Jimichukwu, you did it against Ambode and GRV. It is your stock in trade and your natural kind of politics even before social media became polular.

But as always, when others learn how to use your weapon of propaganda better than you do, you cry foul and lament to high heavens..

Moral lesson- Do not start what you cannot finish..

My brother, you are deflecting.

If you want to argue that some Yoruba political actors have also questioned people’s lineage or used ethnic propaganda, go and open that thread and make the case. I may even agree with you where the facts support it.

But that cannot be your defence here.

The only real defence available to you is to show that what I said about some Obidients is false. If my claim is wrong, rebut it. Show that Obidients do not question people’s tribe once they leave Obi. Show that Kenneth Okonkwo was not suddenly being “investigated” only after he parted ways with Obi. Show that Igbo politicians who support Tinubu are not often called sell-outs or traitors.

But saying “Yorubas do it too” is not a rebuttal. It is whataboutism.

Are you saying because some Yoruba people have done it before, it is now right for Obidients to do it? Is that the moral standard now — copy the bad thing you claim to condemn?

I am Yoruba, and I do not support that nonsense. In fact, it may shock you that many of my closest childhood friends were Igbo. That is partly why I can recognise the difference between ordinary Igbo political opinion and the Obidient intolerance I am talking about.

This is not about hating Igbo people. It is about criticising a political movement that turns disagreement into ethnic excommunication.

So please, stop hiding behind Yoruba examples.

If the Obidient behaviour is wrong, condemn it.

If it is right, defend it openly.

But do not tell us it is wrong when Yoruba people do it and suddenly acceptable when Obidients copy it.

AMINDA:
Sanwo-olu won his re-election under APC, but Tinubu lost Lagos. Hope Uzodinma won his re-election under APC, but Tinubu lost Imo. Nwifuru won his re-election but Tinubu lost Ebonyi. The governors of Cross Rivers, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Yobe, etc all won their re-elections under APC but Tinubu did not win the states. Tinubu is more unpopular than APC and Nigerians can tell the difference. Just like PDP after Jonathan, APC as a party will continue to exist and win elections long after Tinubu is voted out of power. Tinubu is not the sole owner of the APC despite his attempts to personalise it by hounding and chasing other blocs away.

This argument is clever on the surface, but weak when you examine the numbers.

First, you said Tinubu lost Lagos. Correct — but by only 9,848 votes. Obi scored 582,454, while Tinubu scored 572,606. Barely three weeks later, Sanwo-Olu won the governorship massively with over 700,000 votes, defeating Labour by more than 400,000 votes. What does that tell you? Lagos voters did not reject APC as a structure. Many simply made a presidential protest vote and returned to APC for state power.

Second, Tinubu did not lose the North-West in 2023. He won the zone in total votes. TheCable’s breakdown showed Tinubu scoring about 2.65 million votes in the North-West against Atiku’s about 2.19 million. Atiku won more states in the zone, but Tinubu’s raw numbers were stronger, especially because he took huge votes in Kano, Katsina, Kaduna and other states even where he came second.

Look at the actual margins. In Katsina, Atiku scored 489,045, Tinubu 482,283 — a difference of only 6,762. In Sokoto, Atiku scored 288,679, Tinubu 285,444— a difference of only 3,235. Those are not signs of rejection; those are razor-thin losses in a four-way presidential election.

In Kaduna, Atiku won with 554,360, Tinubu had **399,293**, and Obi had 294,494. In Kebbi, Atiku won, but again the point is that these were presidential-level 2023 dynamics under a divided field, not evidence that APC as a 2027 ruling structure cannot deliver.

Now to Cross River. Obi won the presidential election there with 179,917, Tinubu had 130,520, Atiku 95,425, and Kwankwaso 1,644. But in the governorship election, APC’s Bassey Otu won with about 258,619, while PDP’s Sandy Onor got about 179,636. That is a major reversal from the presidential mood and proof that local structure, zoning and candidate strength mattered more than presidential protest sentiment.

Also, let us correct your South-East examples. Hope Uzodimma’s re-election was off-cycle, not part of the March 2023 governorship election. Nwifuru did not win “re-election” in Ebonyi; he was elected for the first time in 2023.

The split-ticket phenomenon you are talking about was most pronounced in the South-East and Obi-heavy Christian/urban protest zones. In the South-East, many politicians quietly campaigned split-ticket: Obi for president, but APC/PDP/APGA locally. That is why Tinubu performed poorly presidentially in the South-East, yet APC still held governorship structures in places like Ebonyi and Imo.

But 2027 is different. Tinubu is no longer just APC’s candidate; he is the sitting President and leader of the party. No serious APC governor or candidate will openly ask voters to support him locally while abandoning the presidential leader of his own party without damaging his own future.

That is why the real target for APC in the South-East may not even be outright victory. It may be securing **25%** in states where first-term APC governors and local structures now have every incentive to deliver.

Finally, the claim that Tinubu is uniquely unpopular is largely a social-media myth. It is loud in urban spaces, but elections are not won only on X and Nairaland. Rural voters respond to party structure, governors, local leaders, projects, patronage, federal access and political alignment.

So the correct lesson from 2023 is not “Tinubu is more unpopular than APC.”

The correct lesson is this: 2023 produced unusual split-ticket voting because of Obi’s protest wave, regional sentiment and local governorship calculations.

2027 will be a different election, with different incentives, different alignments and a sitting APC President at the centre of the party machinery.

opeldavid:
Shut up!!!

And gettat!!

How To Spot An Obidient On Nairaland: A User Guide.

Not everyone who criticises Tinubu is an Obidient. Not everyone who disagrees with Pastor Adeboye is an Obidient. Not everyone who supports opposition politics is an Obidient.

But there is a pattern.

If it quacks like an Obidient, insults like an Obidient, dodges facts like an Obidient, and shouts “data boy” like an Obidient, forgive me for recognising the duck.

You can usually spot them by the familiar feathers.

First, they rarely answer the issue. If you raise facts, they attack your motive. If you ask for evidence, they say you are paid. If you question Peter Obi, they say you are working for APC. If you defend a point they dislike, they call you “data boy.”

Second, they confuse abuse with intelligence. Instead of argument, you get insults. Instead of data, you get slogans. Instead of reasoning, you get “fake certificate,” “snatch and grab,” “criminal,” and other recycled chants.

Third, they practice selective outrage. When a pastor, activist or elder appears to support Obi, he is a voice of conscience. But if the same type of public figure says something that does not serve their political anger, he becomes tribal, fake, compromised or useless.

Fourth, they dodge facts like rain. Present figures, they change topic. Present history, they shout propaganda. Present voting patterns, they reply with emotion.

So no, I do not call people Obidient simply because they disagree with me. I notice the uniform: abuse first, evidence last.

If it walks like selective outrage, quacks like political intolerance, and swims comfortably in insult, I do not need DNA test to know the species.

You can deny being Obidient, but if your argument came from the usual insult factory, do not blame me for identifying the manufacturer.

DatNiggaDaz:


Data boi, you are not important and you have no pathway like your faaake certttifficcate hollldderr to another round of snatching and grabbing

All your gaslighting monikers are well known and there is nothing worthwhile that comes from the mouth and brain of mandate snatchers and grabbers including their supporters other than lies, deceit, propaganda, big*try, nepot*sm, parapoism and tribalism

Mr data boi, you are decieving yourself with your numerous moniker and wasting your unprecious time writing meaningless epistles

I am here to be a pain fir you to wail and change monikers writing jargons.

How To Spot An Obidient On Nairaland: A User Guide.

Not everyone who criticises Tinubu is an Obidient. Not everyone who disagrees with Pastor Adeboye is an Obidient. Not everyone who supports opposition politics is an Obidient.

But there is a pattern.

If it quacks like an Obidient, insults like an Obidient, dodges facts like an Obidient, and shouts “data boy” like an Obidient, forgive me for recognising the duck.

You can usually spot them by the familiar feathers.

First, they rarely answer the issue. If you raise facts, they attack your motive. If you ask for evidence, they say you are paid. If you question Peter Obi, they say you are working for APC. If you defend a point they dislike, they call you “data boy.”

Second, they confuse abuse with intelligence. Instead of argument, you get insults. Instead of data, you get slogans. Instead of reasoning, you get “fake certificate,” “snatch and grab,” “criminal,” and other recycled chants.

Third, they practice selective outrage. When a pastor, activist or elder appears to support Obi, he is a voice of conscience. But if the same type of public figure says something that does not serve their political anger, he becomes tribal, fake, compromised or useless.

Fourth, they dodge facts like rain. Present figures, they change topic. Present history, they shout propaganda. Present voting patterns, they reply with emotion.

So no, I do not call people Obidient simply because they disagree with me. I notice the uniform: abuse first, evidence last.

If it walks like selective outrage, quacks like political intolerance, and swims comfortably in insult, I do not need DNA test to know the species.

You can deny being Obidient, but if your argument came from the usual insult factory, do not blame me for identifying the manufacturer.

ogolemati:
for your mind now you are incharge of your thinking and reasoning.well look at what happened to you below.dont take it personal sha

Another Obidient special: accuse, abuse, then dodge the point.

How To Spot An Obidient On Nairaland: A User Guide.

Not everyone who criticises Tinubu is an Obidient. Not everyone who disagrees with Pastor Adeboye is an Obidient. Not everyone who supports opposition politics is an Obidient.

But there is a pattern.

If it quacks like an Obidient, insults like an Obidient, dodges facts like an Obidient, and shouts “data boy” like an Obidient, forgive me for recognising the duck.

You can usually spot them by the familiar feathers.

First, they rarely answer the issue. If you raise facts, they attack your motive. If you ask for evidence, they say you are paid. If you question Peter Obi, they say you are working for APC. If you defend a point they dislike, they call you “data boy.”

Second, they confuse abuse with intelligence. Instead of argument, you get insults. Instead of data, you get slogans. Instead of reasoning, you get “fake certificate,” “snatch and grab,” “criminal,” and other recycled chants.

Third, they practice selective outrage. When a pastor, activist or elder appears to support Obi, he is a voice of conscience. But if the same type of public figure says something that does not serve their political anger, he becomes tribal, fake, compromised or useless.

Fourth, they dodge facts like rain. Present figures, they change topic. Present history, they shout propaganda. Present voting patterns, they reply with emotion.

So no, I do not call people Obidient simply because they disagree with me. I notice the uniform: abuse first, evidence last.

If it walks like selective outrage, quacks like political intolerance, and swims comfortably in insult, I do not need DNA test to know the species.

You can deny being Obidient, but if your argument came from the usual insult factory, do not blame me for identifying the manufacturer.

soccerlite:
People are hypocrites Sha

adeboye isn't an angel, he's not Paul, he's not great missionaries of old, he's even up to ayo babalola

But some people have turn him to their God

If it was gumi that made this statement during buhari even the adeboye lick spittle will join in condemnation

Funny!!

Go and read the thread first before replying to the version of it you manufactured in your head.

Nobody said Adeboye is an angel. Nobody said he is Apostle Paul. Nobody said he is Ayo Babalola. Nobody said he is above criticism. So this your “people have turned him to God” line is a beautiful straw man wearing Sunday clothes.

The point is simple: criticise Adeboye’s statement if you disagree with it, but stop turning criticism into abuse.

You call people hypocrites and “lickspittles,” yet your entire argument is built on imaginary hypocrisy. If Gumi made a similar statement, people would be free to question him too. But the same rule should apply: quote him, challenge his logic, expose his inconsistency — don’t just descend into insults and then pretend you are defending truth.

That is the difference you keep dodging.

Disagreement is allowed. Abuse is what we are condemning.

But because some people cannot argue without insult, they think anyone demanding decency must be worshipping Adeboye. No, sir. We are not worshipping him. We are simply refusing to join your political mud bath.

So please, keep your “lickspittle” vocabulary. It says more about the mouth using it than the people you aimed it at.

If Adeboye is wrong, prove him wrong.

If the thread is wrong, rebut it.

But don’t fight a straw man, insult the furniture, and then call it analysis.

MrSly:
And this gibberish made it to front page. Anyways there is no more nairaland, just a shadow of it.

In case you want to deny you are an obidient, please go and read the user manial!

How To Spot An Obidient On Nairaland: A User Guide.

Not everyone who criticises Tinubu is an Obidient. Not everyone who disagrees with Pastor Adeboye is an Obidient. Not everyone who supports opposition politics is an Obidient.

But there is a pattern.

If it quacks like an Obidient, insults like an Obidient, dodges facts like an Obidient, and shouts “data boy” like an Obidient, forgive me for recognising the duck.

You can usually spot them by the familiar feathers.

First, they rarely answer the issue. If you raise facts, they attack your motive. If you ask for evidence, they say you are paid. If you question Peter Obi, they say you are working for APC. If you defend a point they dislike, they call you “data boy.”

Second, they confuse abuse with intelligence. Instead of argument, you get insults. Instead of data, you get slogans. Instead of reasoning, you get “fake certificate,” “snatch and grab,” “criminal,” and other recycled chants.

Third, they practice selective outrage. When a pastor, activist or elder appears to support Obi, he is a voice of conscience. But if the same type of public figure says something that does not serve their political anger, he becomes tribal, fake, compromised or useless.

Fourth, they dodge facts like rain. Present figures, they change topic. Present history, they shout propaganda. Present voting patterns, they reply with emotion.

So no, I do not call people Obidient simply because they disagree with me. I notice the uniform: abuse first, evidence last.

If it walks like selective outrage, quacks like political intolerance, and swims comfortably in insult, I do not need DNA test to know the species.

You can deny being Obidient, but if your argument came from the usual insult factory, do not blame me for identifying the manufacturer.

MrSly:
And this gibberish made it to front page. Anyways there is no more nairaland, just a shadow of it.

Typical Obidient mindset.

Once an article does not agree with their preferred political gospel, it becomes “gibberish” and should not make front page. In their world, Nairaland should function like an Obidient WhatsApp group: only one opinion allowed, all dissent deleted, all critics labelled paid, tribal or foolish.

Thank God Nairaland does not belong to Obidients.

You are free to call the article gibberish, but what is funny is that you still could not rebut the gibberish. You saw “gibberish” on front page, entered the thread, complained about Nairaland, mourned the platform, but still left the argument standing.

That is the real comedy.

If the article is wrong, show where. If the point about Obidient intolerance is false, disprove it with conduct better than the conduct being criticised.

But shouting “Nairaland is now a shadow” because your side did not control the narrative is not analysis. It is political entitlement throwing tantrum.

The problem is not that Nairaland has fallen.

The problem is that your tolerance for opposing views has expired.

You call it gibberish because you cannot answer it. And when an argument you cannot answer reaches front page, suddenly the whole platform must be condemned.

That is not democracy.

That is censorship wearing Obidient perfume.