₦airaland Forum

stcool:
Over analysis...continue until you see it @N200.

You are now comparing MTN to Stanbic and GTB that will pay you less than N2.50, did you look at that balance sheet carefully or you just rush to pick just the part you like.

You are the cause, one secret in NSE is that don't advertise the stock you are already into, it seen as monkey hunting. The company might be good. But the more you advertise them the more loophole people will see. You are already in mtn, and we may join you later after seen their q2, which will be their first result to enter corporate action of NSE. Then if their result match their price them you that already in will be at advantage, but if the reverse been the case OYO.

OakPearl:
Going by the bolded, 80% of EPS pay out as dividend ~ N5.82/share dividend.

Zenith current price #20.10 ( 20.10 x 3 = #60.30)
Zenith FY dividend #2.80 (#2.80 x 3 = #8.4) more than mtn 100%

aremso:
MTN Nigeria Communications Plc has released its consolidated and separate financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2018. The company’s revenue grew by 17% when compared to 2017.

Revenue: MTN Nigeria‘s revenue grew from N887.1 billion in FY 2017 to N1 trillion in FY 2018, indicating a 17% increase year on year.

Operating Profit: The company’s operating profit grew by 36% to N266.1 billion in 2018, up from N195.9 billion in 2017.

Profit Before Tax: MTN Nigeria‘s PBT rose from N107.8 billion in 2017 to N221.3 billion in the year under review.

Profit After Tax: The network operator saw its PAT increase to N145.6 billion in 2018, up from N81.07 billion in 2017.

Interim Dividends: The Board of Directors approved interim dividends of N38.6 billion on March 6, 2018, and another N73 billion on the 11th of February 2019 for the year ended 31 December 2018.

Meanwhile, the company grew its spending on Advertisements, sponsorships and sales promotions to N16.2 billion, having spent N15.5 billion in 2017.

What you need to know: Nairametrics placed a HOLD on MTN Nigeria‘s shares, advising investors to exercise patience until more information is made available to the public regarding the investigation of Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) into the company’s listing activities.

Also, the HOLD was also considered due to the court case filed against the Office of the Attorney General of the Federation (OAGF), as progress report is needed to boost the confidence of shareholders and investors.

These two factors could drop MTN Nigeria‘s share price if negative reports emanate from them. Meanwhile, in line with Nairametrics BUY criteria, the stock is also unlikely to show any significant decline in the short to medium term.

SIM Registration Fine: MTN Nigeria will soon be paying the final tranche of the SIM registration fine imposed on the telecom giant in October 2015. The company is expected to pay the sum of N55 billion to the Federal Government today.

Note: MTN Nigeria now discloses full financial statements after listing on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) on May 16, 2019. The company’s stock is currently trading at N136 on the NSE.

The bolded mean that their EPs was #7.28, not #8 based on 20billion outstanding share. They EPS placed them at the level of Stanbic, GTB and close to that of Zenith bank.

Yayira:
Would like to know which dangote they are buying ..

It should be the Cement

yok:
DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 31 MAY 2019
MSCI Nigeria on 30 May 2019 bought/sold a number of equities, Zenith was on sell side while UBA and Dangote were among the additions. MSCI likely to continue with selling as oil swings to a recent low.

This is season where buy and hold can be dangerous. We have to start getting accustomed to being satisfied with gains from 20% upwards while limiting our loses (THIS IS NIGERIA OR BETTER STILL AFRICA IN GENERAL, IT IS A RISKY PLACE).

Reading ordinary news or buying when prices are falling will be a prescription for disaster. You have to learn how to read the market action in such a way that is not known to the general public (word of wisdom).

Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

https://oilprice.com
Hope this fall in crude oil price will not continue, because if it does continue it will affect our country economy.

GonFreecss1:
You have no right to tell me what I can do and can't do. That is why this is a market. We have entry prices and prices we leave, I don't enter the market or leave because of you or what you say, neither should anyone here.

But let me get this straight, MTN is overvalued is doom speak? NSE will still go down/capitulation is doom speak? DF overvalued something else involved is doom speak? Nigerian naira going down is doom speak?



So I should only come here to talk about prices going up? Nah! I am too Logical for that sir and I believe you are too logical for your statement. I have not broken any rules and neither have I confused anyone, if you can't stand my opinion then leave.

Whatever I say here is my opinion and strategy, if you agree with it, fine, if you don't that's your business, but don't tell me what I can or can't do. Thank you.

Hope the stone throw was meant for you?
People should respect peoples opinion, if what someone post didn't go well with you jump and past. If there is no bear there won't be bull either, both works together. In bear people lose weight and it present an opportunity for others to gain weight later. That's is NSE for you, don't take most of the comments at heart to avoid HBP.

For now market will be dancing up and down, till July, there is no news to move the market forward, until q2 result starting coming out by July ending, between 50/60 days go.

mybusinesss:
Please peeps I noticed nothing shows on the Bids and Offer section of my trading profile. I only get to see the real-time trades and that doesn't specify whether it was a bid or offer.

How can I fix this?

Thanks.

Log out and log in back, some time it happen like that.

Market has the minds of its own.

stcool:
Make una allow MTN rest, every major company has enjoyed one privilege or the other due to our own lapses and lazy regulators.

Even Dangote enjoyed some privileges that allowed him list, such may not be available to those that follow. For now na Airtel and Glo go carry that scrutiny.

MTN is gone and I can tell you the high and mighty all benefited.

Wrong is wrong, to some when the system is corrupt and is favouring them the system is not corrupt, but when it does not favour them, then the system become corrupt.

What ever government is doing now is to protect ordinary shareholders, you might be inside and you may not no the real secret that goes on which might affect your share in future. I remember when government was warning people to distance themselves from MMM, some criticized government, but within a short period of time story that touches started.

A lot of manipulation goes on from day one mtn was listed and if not properly handle will affect Nigeria economy and NSE as well, imaging 1 unit of share splits into about 49.9 times at #90, with further pumping. The only release about 20/30% of their share for trading meaning that the Parent company hold the majority and the 49.9 times duplicate share from each one unit of share which will dump on Nigeria, which will also make the earning coming to Nigerians ordinary shareholders insignificant, before I forget our follow Nigeria participate in this dubious act, very very bad.

stcool:
OLAMS are a stronger player... I think they would do well than Tiger brand. Don't forget they are already playing in the sector with the purchase of Crown Flour Mills. They really need access to those 2 ports not just their Flourmills business as they are a big player in the agricultural sector !

But people jumping in are doing so because of capital appreciation the news will bring, or the payment they will get from Olam if the deal go through, not because the like Olam, nor neither do they feel that Olam will do well. But we must always remember that it's 50/50 chance it might favor or fail.

There might be something they are looking that Dangote might not be willing to release or he might release. But a buyer can also change his mind at the dying minutes, he might buy or might not buy. That's why it's 50/50 game.

stcool:
I don't know... That is the risk.

But I believe Alhaji has given the go ahead, else they would not make the announcement on NSE.

Flourmill biz is one sector Alhaji wants to exit for good!

Hope it will not be another round of tiger brand of south Africa?
Dangote injected his billion of naira after the Tigar brand deal, to resurrect the company again, because it has almost died completely. And by now I believed that he has taken away his injected money which makes the company performed poorly in their recent results they released.

https://www.proshareng.com/news/STOCK%20PICKS/Afrinvest-Stock-Recommendation-For-The-Week-270519/45471

stcool:
Don't mind Chibuking...if the stock goes on bid now, another theory will pop up

Watch my post, I respect peoples opinion because it helps a lot when joining together with ones finding too, even if I disagree with the opinion I do that to be convince and to get more fact to agree. If their story of 2018 change, and it happened that their PAT is around 700 billion, bringing their earning per a share to #40. I will make them 100% of my portfolio.

stcool:
If you are privileged to have MTN prior to listing or enetered at @90 on the day of listing, would you have said all this or would you have sold your shares.

Make una allow us buy in peace...MTN never wanted to list their shares, FG forced them. They have not done any wrong rather blame your govt. and regulators.

Am sorry, maybe you entered above the current price, but it's not late to jump out before the story that touches, if truly their 2018 earning stand at 160b, there are a long way to go, the possibility of visiting below #90 in no distance time is very high.

They are good company, but the over duplicated their 1 unit, imagine 1 unit giving you about 50 unit, PE of below 1 to 17.25 PE at current Price, when ever they finish IPO they seriously need share reconstruction, if the want their share price to be high.

stcool:
Currentprice dey value MTN @96

Chibuking dey value MTN @70

A stock in the category of MTN can never sell at its fair price, else the likes of GTB and Stanbic would not be trading at their current price.

Make una continue...I am buying MTN today, good luck with your waiting!

Chibuking81:
Please can I get link to it?
160 billion/ 407 million = 393.12 eps
20 billion/407 million = ‭49.14, if their initial outstanding was 407 million, that means that they splits each unit into 49.14 unit before they listed it.

49.14 x 90 = ‭#4,422.60. Does it mean that their 1 unit of share is now #4,422.60?

4,422.60/393.12 = 11.25 PE, but according to their report before listing, they stated that their PE was below 1.
To get below 1eps, that is 4,422.60/11.25 =384.57.
Therefore 384.57/393.12 = 0.98 PE

Before listing their share price should be #384.57
And their current Price after the splits should have been #384.57/49.14 = #7.83.
Their suppose price should have been #7.83 (against #90 listing and their current #140, this is close to 2000% upward increase )

Meaning that 1 unit of share of #384.57 was duplicated to get #4422.60 (#4,422.60 - #384.57 = #4,038.03)
#4,038.03 on top, that's excessive. ( or #7.83 duplicated to get #90 and #140 respectively)

Their fair value by #8 eps should be #70

MTN's price earnings (P/E) ratio based on FY 2018 earnings per share (EPS) of N357.87 and its
recent market price of N90 confounded a lot of analysts. A P/E of less than one(1.0) for the
second largest stock listed on the NSE makes little, if any, sense at all. Dangote Cement
(DANGCEM), the Exchange's single largest capitalized stock trades at a price of N185 and a P/E
of 8.35. DANGCEM's price to book value is currently 3.04.

Some times it's always good to wait and find reason from other peoples opinion, this page will always open our eyes in what we felt we know, but far away from our view.

MTNN pre-list has PE of below 1, at their listing it has PE of 11.25, and post listing of 17.5, at their current Price, it is too excessive.

currentprice:
good that u don't rush buy at the listing day as ur blood rise on that day when u saw d full BID

some guru already saw this before mtn become tradeable on nse

price will still go up but that doesn't make it best stock. better stock with bonaza price plenty for market

Cc robobo

We disagree in order to agree, that is all about research and finding.

currentprice:
407m

160 billion/ 407 million = 393.12 eps
20 billion/407 million = ‭49.14, if their initial outstanding was 407 million, that means that they splits each unit into 49.14 unit before they listed it.

49.14 x 90 = ‭#4,422.60. Does it mean that their 1 unit of share is now #4,422.60?

4,422.60/393.12 = 11.25 PE, but according to their report before listing, they stated that their PE was below 1.
To get below 1eps, that is 4,422.60/11.25 =384.57.
Therefore 384.57/393.12 = 0.98 PE

Before listing their share price should be #384.57
And their current Price after the splits should have been #384.57/49.14 = #7.83.
Their suppose price should have been #7.83 (against #90 listing and their current #140, this is close to 2000% upward increase )

Meaning that 1 unit of share of #384.57 was duplicated to get #4422.60 (#4,422.60 - #384.57 = #4,038.03)
#4,038.03 on top, that's excessive. ( or #7.83 duplicated to get #90 and #140 respectively)

Their fair value by #8 eps should be #70

MTN's price earnings (P/E) ratio based on FY 2018 earnings per share (EPS) of N357.87 and its
recent market price of N90 confounded a lot of analysts. A P/E of less than one(1.0) for the
second largest stock listed on the NSE makes little, if any, sense at all. Dangote Cement
(DANGCEM), the Exchange's single largest capitalized stock trades at a price of N185 and a P/E
of 8.35. DANGCEM's price to book value is currently 3.04.

Godlylifeoneart:
https://www.mtn.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Presentation-2018.pdf

Any purported report of a corporate organization that is not available on bloomberg.com might not be useful in computational analysis and summary of a company.

OK, but did you have little idea of their supposed outstanding share before listing 20 billion in NSE?

rebekah2011:
This is MTN Group.

But did you have idea of 2018 FY PAT of MTNN? The #160 billion mentioned by Nairametric in their article, is it supposed mtnn 2018 FY PAT?

Please can someone tell me the number of mtn outstanding share before they got listed and their 2018 finally year PAT, with their 2019 q1?

I got $672m as their profit in 2018 which is equivalent to #241.92 billion using #360 as exchange rate per a dollar https://thenerveafrica.com/27709/mtn-group-reports-672m-profit-in-2018/
In nairametric article I saw #160b as their assumed PAT, but I want to know their actual PAT.
https://nairametrics.com/2019/05/15/how-to-buy-mtn-nigeria-shares-on-the-nigerian-stock-exchange/

gold360:
many thanks dear. Please help us and break it down and tell us what each day stands for, I can only identify 27th may and 29th May as children's day and democracy day respectively.
Thanks

Chibuking81:
https://www.officeholidays.com/countries/nigeria/index.php

https://t.guardian.ng/news/fg-declares-may-29-june-12-public-holidays/

There will be public holidays and mid- term holidays
1. Monday 27th May 2019 = Children day (A public holiday for primary and secondary school children)
2. Wednesday 29th May 2019 = Public holiday ( Presidential inauguration)
3. Friday 31st May 2019 = Holiday ( Mid term break)
4. Monday 3rd of June 2019= Holiday ( Mid term break)
5. Wednesdays 5th June 2019 = Eid-el-fitri Sallah ( The end of Ramandan)
6. Wednesday 12th June 2019 = Democratic Day ( Commemorates the annulled general election of 1993)
The next 2 Mondays are holidays, also the next 3 Wednesdays are public holidays, with 1 Friday as holiday.

Note
1. Democratic day has been shifted to June 12.
2. 29th is presidential inauguration ( this might be observing once in 4 years during swearing in year or might still remain every year, next year will tell)

stcool:
MTN did not commit any offense so long as they listed my introduction... Abi no be Nigeria. EFCC will do nothing and can do nothing. Watch as everything die down next week. Did all the regulatory body not give go ahead prior to listing?

My brother nothing will happen, just look for a good price and enter next week.

The problem is not the EFCC http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/26255_MTN_NIGERIA_COMMUNICATIONS_PLC_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_MAY_2019.pdf
EFCC are just doing their job. But problem here is the real value of their stock, 20 billion outstanding share makes their current market value overvalued. #160 billion earning divided by 20 billion unit of share is #8 earning per a share, almost equivalent to Stanbic bank with market price of #42, FY EPs of #7.04 , even Okomo oil of #74 with EPs of #8.91, Okomo oil has higher EPs than mtn. Meaning that mtn should be competing around #40 - #70, with 20 billion outstanding share.

Remember that they will soon come with IPO, which will further reduce their earning per a share after adding new created share to existing share, maybe this time to #5, and GTB and Zenith will have more earning than them. They are good company but the number of outstanding share listed is too voluminous. Before this year ending watch and see their price will come down below #100, also shortly after IPO it will come down the more to #50/#70.

So know what you are buying, in NSE things are changing, stock participants are becoming wiser unlike before, upon the high presence of manipulation going on, investors and traders know what they are buying. But when one fail to follow up, he will become the victim of pump and dump.

stcool:
Next week I am buying MTN... Institutional investors will want MTN in their portfolio for long term play.

MTN never wanted to list their shares...FG forced them to it. After listing you cannot force them to selI.

What is it with we Nigerians crying everytime and wanting all things in our favour. MTN has listed and the shareholders have the right to sell or not to sell. Those asking shareholders to sell, if you had shares in MTN below N90 will you have sold on listing.

Same people asking for IPO are the same people that would cry tomorrow that's MTN is devaluing their shares by going for IPO if they had shares in MTN.

If MTN S.A decides to leave Nigeria on Monday, how much do you think they would sell their shares?

For me, I will look to buy next week.

Please hold on, look for other better stock like Fidelity, FCMB, UBA, Zenith bank that will possibly give you 100% and 70% respectively with dividend attached to it on or before next 10 months. Ucheson was having the same ideology in Oando as you are having now in mtn, when Oando was at #20+ and he was hoping to see it at #100 within some period, only to find Oando at #3, from all the information gathered mtn listed overvalued/overpriced stock. It would have been better they reconstructed it to 2 billion outstanding share and listed the price at #400, then its EPs will stand at #80 than 20 billion outstanding share. The splitting of their share was done in excess.

Yayira:
Abi oo me too be foreign investor..

Yes na

gold360:
I am hearing there won't be any public holiday next week for civil servants in rivers state.
Please how true is this?

https://www.officeholidays.com/countries/nigeria/index.php

https://t.guardian.ng/news/fg-declares-may-29-june-12-public-holidays/

There will be public holidays and mid- term holidays
1. Monday 27th May 2019 = Children day (A public holiday for primary and secondary school children)
2. Wednesday 29th May 2019 = Public holiday ( Presidential inauguration)
3. Friday 31st May 2019 = Holiday ( Mid term break)
4. Monday 3rd of June 2019= Holiday ( Mid term break)
5. Wednesdays 5th June 2019 = Eid-el-fitri Sallah ( The end of Ramandan)
6. Wednesday 12th June 2019 = Democratic Day ( Commemorates the annulled general election of 1993)
The next 2 Mondays are holidays, also the next 3 Wednesdays are public holidays, with 1 Friday as holiday.

Agbalowomeri:
Who still no believe say Flourmills go reach 12 Lol

They hand written has been on the wall since last year, I even posted time without number that they will visit #15 in near future, which they have visited and had overtaken the junction with about 1 kilometer. That's why I hate companies mentioning of right issue in NSE after they might have paid dividend of billions. If I am in any company and they mention right issue, I due quickly liquidate my share in that company and enter a better company.

Most CEO are scammers, we don't hear bonus share again but right issue, that's why I still have regard for Cutix cable that gave bonus recently and still maintain good result.

Instead of rewarding investors with bonus share, the CEO ended up collecting from investors times 10 what they just paid them as dividend, and thereby rendering the worth of the share worthless. The moment a company go for right issue, let say 1 right issue for every 1of existing share, that means that the worth of your share will be reduce to half, also the EPs will reduced by half in the next accounting year.

Like mtn that will soon come for IPO similar to right issue from my view point, its equivalent to right issue because their share have already been listed and already trading in the flour, if for instance they create through IPO another new 20 billion share which will make the number of their outstanding share to come up to 40 billion, that means that existing shareholders worth has technically be reduced to half without compensation. And their EPs will reduce by half.

Too much of illegality is going on in NSE, and Nigeria government suppose to fight it.

Am still surprise at the result released by Access bank in their final year 2018 and q1 2019. Goes by q1 they are competing with Zenith instead of UBA their mate. I keep believing that they did so since internally they have decided to pay #1 to themselves that cross carpets to Diamond bank, and little of 25 kobo to uninformed Access shareholders. and again the did so by cooking their final year and q1 result to maintain the same level with UBA, after accommodating the Diamond reconstructed outstanding share. Meaning that they are still looking for 2019 FY EPs at region of #2+, with lower 2019 FY dividend when compare with UBA on the excuse of balancing up after acquisition of Diamond bank. Manipulation all over.

Mpeace:
foreign investors dumping since 100BC. I thought they left early last year. When did they re enter the market to start dumping again?

We always have foreign investors, even among us like Yayira is among foreign investors , we only hear when they left not when they enter. They can go out today and come back tomorrow.

RabbiDoracle:
The MTN party is over.

Chibuking that had been screaming to buy since will not want to buy now. Once it assumes its ascent, he will come again and be screaming how NSE didn't sell to him.

Buy now o.

As of today closing price which 5 out of these 10 stocks did you think that has more upward potential than remaining 5 ?

Their PE was calculated using 2018 final year EPS and today closing price.

1. Fidelity @ #1.81 with 2018 FY EPS of 79.16 kobo ( against 61.35 kobo eps of 2017) and 2019 q1 EPs of 21 kobo ( against 16 kobo eps of 2018) PE = 2.27

2. FCMB @ #1.60 with 2018 FY EPS of 75.00 kobo ( against 43 kobo eps of 2017) and 2019 q1 EPs of 18 kobo ( against 13 kobo EPs of 2018) PE = 2.13

3. Ucap @ #2.24 with 2018 FY EPS OF 72.00 kobo ( against 73 kobo eps of 2017) and 2019 q1 EPs of 11 kobo ( against 21 kobo EPs of 2018) PE = 3.11

4.GTB @ #31.10 with 2018 FY EPS of #6.54 kobo ( against #5.94 kobo EPs of 2017) and 2019 q1 EPs of #1.74 kobo ( against #1.58 of 2018) PE = 4.76

5. Zenith bank @ #19 with 2018 FY EPS of #6.15 ( against #5.53 eps of 2017) and 2019 q1 EPs of #1.60 ( against #1.50 of 2018) PE = 3.09

6. UBA @ #5.75 with 2018 FY EPS of #2.20 ( against #2.19 EPs of 2017) and 2019 q1 EPs of 82 kobo (against 67 kobo of 2018) PE = 2.61

7. Transcorp @ #1.14 with 2018 FY EPS of 17.37 kobo ( against 8.06 kobo EPs of 2017) and q1 EPs of 1.58 kobo ( against 5.55 kobo EPs of 2018) PE = 6.56

8. Eterna @ #4 with 2018 FY EPS of 77 kobo ( against #1.54 EPs of 2017) and q1 26 kobo ( against 39 kobo EPs of 2018) PE = 5.19

9. Sterling bank @ #2.07 with 2018 FY EPS of 32 kobo ( against 28 kobo EPs of 2017) and q1 EPs of 11 kobo ( against 11 kobo EPs of 2018) PE = 6.47

10. Ikejahotel @ 1.45 with 2018 FY EPS of 53 Kobo ( against 29 kobo EPs of 2017) and q1 EPs of 7 kobo ( against 11 kobo EPs of 2018) PE = 2.74

RabbiDoracle:
When Transcorp Hilton was contributing well to Transcorp results, it was stripped and listed separately.

I won't be surprised to see the Transcorp Energy ( Oil and Power) listed separately.

Dey there dey look like Alao!

I have view it as such ever since, the moment any of them started giving good return, it will be listed separately. Same happened to transhotel, Oil and power will not be exceptional.

Mcy56:
Lol. Peter and Chibuking don change mind.

@ what price #90 then, no idea of their EPs until their EPs show, but when we notice that their EPs is #8 and they should be in the region of Okomo oil and Stanbic. I raised alarm. Main while Madam Mercy how are enjoying this present bonanza?

OakPearl:
Bro, how do you mean @ the bolded?
If you mean the market capitalization of the companies, remember they dont need that to run their business. It only measures the size of the company compared to others generally.
Otherwise, financial strength of a company basically refers to the working capital and every other cash accessible to the company (including retained earnings) for operating the business profitably.
So no company "shared money" with MTN please. Rather, na shareholders dey "share money" (buy and sell).

I don't mean company working capital, but individual investors capital. For instance before recession and before election when foreign investors were pulling out their fund from NSE, they didn't pullout the companies working capital but their individuals capital, and that really affected the market.

PETERiCHY:
MTNN is a GAME CHANGER

For those comparing MTNN dividend yield with other stocks,

MTN GROUP is a global BRAND that don't cook their financials like most public quoted coys do in NSE. So its like camparing APPLE with ORANGES.

like I said earlier FOREIGN INVESTORS will comfortably buy MTNN at $1 than leave their fund in other poo called stocks.

Their parent coy MTN GROUP currently trades at 10000 Rands per share which is equivalent of N250000 Naira per share.

Above all (most 90%) fund leaving other stock to take position in MTNN are for LONG TERM so they AIN'T coming back anytime soon..

And its already happening at our very own eyes .Ask yourself how many coys in NSE will be able to pay fine of N330bllion and still stand FIRM.

That's why I said if coy CEO don't sit up and make their shareholders happy. We will wake one day to discover NIGERIA STOCK MARKET (NSE) renamed MTN STOCK MARKET (MSE)

"THINGS will NEVER remain the SAME "

*ThE OcToPuS*

Lol
Peter done buy mtn yesterday