₦airaland Forum

emmanuelewumi:
It will take Zichis 15 years to logically attain a price of N42, assuming Zichis can maintain a compounded annualized earning growth of 20% for the next 15 years and a PE of 10.

This is based on organic growth

If they are able to acquire said land asset this yr and start their palm plantation aggressively by next year, I want to believe it will stabilizes and get there much faster than 15yrs.
(All things being equal)

thebargainhunte:
Dangote cement was over valued at N400+ last year? But people are buying it this year at N1100+ as undervalued assets and they are happy.Projecting the next junction to be N2000. Every investment comes with speculation, no body is too sure of anything. Convince your followers and you will get to your destination and you japa

Dangote cement started buying back shares in 2023 @ circa 300-330.
He bought in over 2 huge tranches or so on the floor..
It reduced the liquidity and thus share price has to adjust upward.
That alone will make 400+ undervalued sef in 2025 as you claim.

Seunn11:
The thinking that some people have exclusive call on stocks on this forum is dangerous for those who outsource their analyses.
No one was more against OANDO on this forum more than a particular elder on this forum. Any gains on the stock's share is always a trigger for viperous outbursts everytime. I even thought that he must have lost a great deal trading the stock. However, by his own admission, he never owns a single unit of the stock!!!!

What then was his grievance about?

Perhaps there is a new phenomenon that we can refer to as 'Anger of Missing Out' (AMO). The 'experts' think that if they did not see a new high potential stock in the horizon, then it should not appear. It should die before it grows.

No stocks suffer this bitter venom spitting more than Ellah, Oando and Zichis... in the hands of this 'elder stockman'.

@bolded, it's your inserted biased summary and omitting the "elders" reasons or strategies that are always in this thread whenever they make their post on the stock. Whether jijoing, short term investing, trading, or long term investment.

That's kinda mischievous to represent and bear false witness while inserting your comfortable meaning to sell your narrative.
Don't kinda miniaturize it to suit your narrative and present it as fact. Posting your interpretation as any "elders" perspective is biased.
Whatever they said is at an INSTANT- OF-TIME.
decision change based on new market info and it's always laid bare.


Their comments and analysis on stocks are targeted towards an average investor.
Not to most of you who quote them and kinda know better and yet feel it's directed at you.

Who's an average investor?

To me, an average investor is someone who does other businesses or salary earner, invests his savings and expects his investment to yield him dividends yearly with slight growth and the stock to have a minimum of 20%-30% capital appreciation per year. He has little or no time to check his investments daily or weekly or even monthly. So he looks for the mist viable options that can meet these minimum.
Like Aradel, Seplat, Nahco, the Banks, Okomu, Vitafoam, etc. That pays dividend with at least 20% price appreciation on average yearly.
That is the ideal expectation of an average investor both in this forum and outside it..

Tell me any ideal average investor who make up the majority and require those minimum expectations would invest in any of those stocks you are championing?
If you talk about making 300% or more , you are a trader not an investor. And thats also fine.
It's misaligned to now use your category to now whitewash people targeting those in other category.

The ideal investor who probably bought OandO at 25+ bargain price will only still be at 100% after 3yrs of investing with no financial dividend to help his life and family. How is this a good deal for him/her..He/she will definitely get frustrated and regret entering the stock while you as a trader is busy celebrating 300%+ in OandO, Ellah, Zichis. Your power as a trader is time-in-the market to buy and sell.


Most of those in OandO, Ellah in this forum are not your average investor. They are deep rooted advanced high-level investors who understands to a large extent, the intricacies of politics, time, patience, economy know that dividends aren't coming, not surprised, taken aback, by following up, they manage their frustration since they are well informed and up-to-date on the market, use if "patient" funds.
Braced themselves for the risk involved and absorb paper losses cuz they are targeting sth much bigger; reading AFS quarterly and following news and trends ,daily disclosures on a daily or weekly basis.

Comments by "supposed Elders" are not usually for them.


Even the average investor who probably checks his portfolio every 3 months or 6months will panic if he had seen oandO at 80+ and now 40+
Same with Ellah at over 19+ now under 10+.
Zichis tend to be following the same pattern except in their case they actually paid dividend and still have positive equity.

What do you advise such investors who makes up more then half of novices and newbies entering a stocks and want lesser risk and those in it. It's after time-in-the-market and experience they become bolder and switch to riskier investing habits or trading and jijoing habits. In that case they don't need to listen and consider the talks of the elders since they are now more aware and can take responsibility for their risks.

thebargainhunte:
You forgot to mention Totalenergies that our oga marketed here, he Japa and left the full offer for his disciplines, everybody here na hustler

Even when Total energies quarterly result became bad in one of the quarters, did the said "oga" attack those bashing the stock?
wasn't the "oga" proponent of Dangote Refinery destabilizing the downstream sector even believe Total energies result became bad.

Did he keep defending the stock without reason when total energies was rightly criticised? Or went on full offer? Wasn't he quiet having made so many projections before release of results

Are these not cues to sell if you were inside?
Or boldly ask the group for direct spoon feeding if you don't understand indirect body language.

Someone even posted a picture of total energies doing bonanza to buy fuel

If you follow the thread judiciously, you would see these things. Your Bias summary ommits critical and necessary details that skews perception and you know it. Unless you skip pages on the thread.

Zichis dropped more than 10%?
10.09 precisely
How kwanu?

ositadima1:
I am not angry. We were collecting small subsidy when the hammer struck. Luckily, I pulled out.

Who has never collected subsidy from this Tinubu government should come out.

ee say na subsidy
I support the term..

Fuel, Tfare, logistics, etc don rise for war wey no concern us, yet no subsidy.
Anywhere man fit perch for short term gain at the moment, na im own subsidy allowance.

AngelSlay:
if the injury is related to football yes but if not he takes care of himself from his own pocket.

Even a civil servant is treated and compensated for any on-the-job related hazard.

The higher your position, the more entitlement/allowances you have from public coffers for self care.

megawealth01:
We go list WHO for Nigeria Stock Exchange

Lol.... Nigerians, we too do.

mikeapollo:
These are the people that would cause oversubscription and deny ordinary investors the opportunity to be allotted in full.

Clock it..👍

KarlTom:
The stars are aligning for DANGREFINE

Well captured.
Even NNPC couldn't hide their shame anymore and want more of the pie

GeneralDae:
Is there any Government since the 1970’s (after Murtala Muhammad) that has blocked leakages and corruption like this Government? Show me one and I would concede.

TSA

Yoursfaithful:
But madam , I don't think its oga Emma that caused the fall ...the phobia is already on social media even before oga Emma released his Analysis..the whole problem started from the Corporate disclosure from ZICHIS MD..who does that ..you came to the market in less than 6months to raise capital and all of a sudden you start selling part of your holdings..what's impression is she creating to investors you're begging to come and invest in your company. Md sold at 36naira and would expect a non investor to buy at 43naira ..someone that its part of her daily life and has insider knowledge about everything going on there sold off after almost 4000% and you expect a novice like me to the company to come and pack same stocks at 43naira..haba now..the MD caused the whole thing..atleast she ought to have shown workings enough even a minimum of 2yrs or 3yrs before selling part of her holdings and not immediately after listing..no be mugu dey this market now

Probably same reason Ellah CEO Chuka and co through Ngx refused to disclose their sale of shares since December..
Only disclosured it officially this year.
Cuz It will cast their PO.


But Zichis operates differently.

crownprince2017:
If you are not big risk taker check the following

Presco
Fidson
Wapco

Risk taker look at
Dangsugar
Vfd
Accessco

DD.

Remember high risk is equal to high reward.

Good options with the right caveat...

handsomebolanle:
I’m neither supporting you or Pa Emma.. But your 2nd paragraph is very true😀…

“ After you don cash out, you'll let them know it's no longer meeting your whatever..”


Make nobody quote me or mention me oo.

I recall your last convo on UBA.

You received body language response on UBA.
Probably you wanted to be spoon fed directly.

Just maybe, probably you got trapped and it's just bugging you.

ositadima1:
You know, it is always good to revisit why an argument started in the first place. Somebody claimed that his farm, or some farms he knew, had more resources than Zichi, so if Zichi’s market cap was 48 billion at the time, then his farm should be worth more.

I countered that market cap should not be taken too seriously because it is a theoretical figure that is difficult to translate into actual cash or even true worth. Zichi’s 48 billion valuation does not mean much unless there is a buyer willing to acquire all the shares at that valuation.

I agree. It's just that some investors do use it as though there's an apparent buyout at any instant of time.

ositadima1:
Ok, let’s put the NYSE aside first. Do you know it is the same liquidity and scarcity that made it reach trillions over time? I don’t think more than 10–15% of the shares were traded in the last four or five years it took Dangote Cement to move from 115, where I initially bought it, to today’s 1115.

It’s like a presidential election where you count votes from Lagos State alone to determine who becomes president. If you counted all the national votes, that candidate may not win or even come close.

With a constant supply of shares available to whoever wanted them, I doubt the price would have appreciated that much. Of course, book value and future earning power are also important.

So, I don’t take market capitalization too seriously unless an entity is willing to buy the entire company at that valuation.

Interesting voting analogy .
But, Recall Dang cement bought back shares at circa 300 or so.

So giij6ny your analogy, same as Presidential aspirant voting for himself multiple times in an election based on his capacity.
Don't really know how this proves or counters your point
But yeah, just to chip in.

thebargainhunte:
Is it paying dividend this year for this higher valuation now?

-was it paying dividend for past 2yrs+ when it was at lower valuation of 28/30?

-What's the probability it will now pay dividend within the next 2yrs or less after this right issue to clear its books?
Isn't that what is triggering the valuation now?

-The dividend investor that sold 2yrs ago and invested in a dividend paying company, has he made net-loss or net-gain from his proceeds compared to what he would have made if he had mopped up DS at ₦28 2yrs ago and waited(HODL) till now?

If he had kept the money under his pillow for the past 2 years, then you can be justified why he didn't mop up at 28+ and HODL.

There was no RI or PO in sight to clear the books as fast as possible. The losses were huge and the organic improvement on the downline was slow and inconsistent.

I am sure over 300%+ in both dividend and valuation has been made in other deployments compared to DS capital appreciation only from the same +28/30 over the 2yr period(200%).

Not forgetting peace of mind.

thebargainhunte:
There was a time they helped you to crash Dangote Sugar to sub 28, but you were not there to mop the crash. If Wapco leggo na, you go Japa.

without dividend?
especially when it's obvious non-payment will extend for over 1+ years ?
Naa.. Investors won't mop.
Probably traders.

ositadima1:
Same with Dangote Cement. That trillion-naira market cap, do you think you can actually realize that much if everyone decided to sell? You would be surprised that the market may not absorb more than ₦200 billion, lol.

The only way that kind of money can realistically be realized is if a single entity is trying to acquire the whole company. If individuals are left to sell into the open market, you will not get anywhere near that trillion naira valuation.

So don’t take market capitalization too seriously.

Well I disagree.
Rather, @bolded is reason why market Cap should be taken too seriously.
It guards valuation(EV and co) for buying entities..

As someone else already mentioned. It's not for liquidity purposes.

Didn't know you replied already.
I know this was your context.

emmanuelewumi:
Dangote Cement with a better market history, pedigree, institutional investors etc should sell at a higher multiple na, but Zichis has a higher multiple.

Zichis has a Price Sale ratio of 71 compared to 4.5 by Dangote Cement

Zichis has a PE ratio of 150 compared to 15 by Dangote Cement

Zichis has a Price Book Value ratio of 40 compared to 8 by Dangote Cement

yMcy56:
By comparing small upcoming ZICHIS with DANGCEM?
Or by company a whole industrial giant with upcoming Agro Allied?
Why didn't he post since the stock was at N5, 10 when no one could even see to buy?
Immediately I saw his post, I knew he's up to no good on the company....
Like I said, Mr. Market will take it's due course...

Meanwhile, the whole full offer they're shouting is not even up to 10m, barely 8M
Where did you see the volume holders offers?

The ELLAH they badmouthed so much is still live on the Exchange, they'd wish it folded up but God pass man.

Well, Sir Emma is presenting a fact. Abi na him tell the MD to sell?

His conparism with Dang-cem is in the context of how Dang-cem is priced at at extreme premium(over-valued at present) based on its MOAT status and almost monopolistic future expansions across Africa and Nigeria.
Yet it's over- valuation price isn't up to Zichis.. The present price tag of Zichis is a big red-flag.
Context is key in his comparism.


My own varied opinion is that the company's physical operations including selling of shares by MD needs to he given the benefit of doubt..
But its natural for investors to read other meaning into it and act accordingly.




Whoever is in Zichis should know what he/she is in..
Time his/her exit if trading.
It's done more than 100% from previous high of 17%
and almost 300% from low of 11/12..
isn't that enough lageese for whoever is trading?


If they focus on organic growth and transparency without lies and gaslighting, they will still surpass the price in the nearest future.

Payunsin:
I have over 45000 birds and I raise catfish too ooo. With this your calculations my business will be more than 50b.
Make me sef come market oooo

Abeg come Ooo!!!
We need the next PRESCO Asap..

emmanuelewumi:
C


Unfortunately most of us don't invest with figures.


Zichis is good for gambling or speculation for now but should not be termed an investment

Zichis may tank downwards massively after dividend payment by May ending .
May probably even go on full offer by 1st week of June.

zendi:
No ulterior meaning should be read into this.

Selling 5% of holding does not suggest cashing out to me......too negligible.

Sure she has locked in some good profit.

My thought is she may be raising money to increase stake through her own proposed PP, knowing how they may price it at great discount.

Exactly my thoughts as well.. They have so many incoming activities.

Streetinvestor2:
Is it that many of you guys here are salary earners. Aradel has natural capacity on the ground. This is a farm with its capacity on ground already stated. What magic can she do even in the next 5yrs to generate billions in revenue .This is agriculture and not gold mine or crude reserves that can just change by new discovery. The poetry,fish farm and palm fruits will not just multiple over night in quantity of new findings or technology. I have no problem with the farm because it is just 5 yrs plus old
Na the SP manipulation way dey on to place unimaginable valuation on the farm.Bro I have friends who have this capacity in the poultry and fish farm without the palm aspect.

I get your point. I
I am talking about CEO sale of shares as a red flag which I think it's too early to flag.
Based on their current listing and ongoing acquisitions to expand and upcoming PO and RI expenses.

If they keep selling their shares to make money more for themselves than the business itself as Sir Emma pointed within the next 1-yr, it becomes a big red flag.



As for the high price.
I am not disputing that it's over valued for it's size. It is far overvalued and probably manipulated.
Also, apart from the MM manipulation,
I believe the high price is a result of rush as well to key in to the stock so as to qualify for any RI or PO that is upcoming. most Right Issues QD at cheaper prices are usually backdated..

Check TIP, CHECK Neimeth, even DangSugar all backdated it's Right issue at cheaper prices after price must have settled later.

I made my opinion here last week.

chimex38:
I believe people want to qualify for their Right issue whenever Qualification Date comes out and not miss out ..
So the earlier one is in the bus the better. And also the higher the accumulation the higher the RI taken.

So it doesn't matter the price they buy at the moment, they will use the RI or PO to average down.
More still, they could buy-off other peoples right.
Current price will look cheap to those class of people.

SonofElElyonRet:
Was able to get SEC DG's personal email and sent him above.. he replied thus: I totally share your bias . I have already started the advocacy I need you all to support me and we shall win together ..

Hope he succeeds...

Weldone Comrade.

emmanuelewumi:
There is a big problem if you are a business owner who listed his or her business on NGX but you make more money trading your stocks than running the business.

Dangote, Elumelu, Rabiu, Adenuga make more money running their businesses than trading their stocks.

You observe I did not include Otedollar

There is a big problem if you are a business owner who listed his or her business on NGX but you make more money trading your stocks than running the business.
Hmm...Word!!
Food for thought..

Though I would add Zichis just got listed..
Let's give them a benefit of doubt for at least 2yrs.

It's same way when Aradel got listed, it's larger shareholders bailed out.
and I am sure some other operational insiders as well.

Afterall, her sale is less than 5% of her holdings..

But your point is key and highly plausible and well noted.
Thanks

megawealth01:
ELLAH, OANDO and Access time go come but many would have sold off

Yes. true.. Bitter truth.

9free:
I still dey give Chuka benefit of doubt because of EllahLakes' biological assets. I just dey wait for them to grow to maturity and if nothing happens na to carry catapult enter the next AGM be that

t
Normally, Zichis ni suppose see Ellah back..but management happened..
Na so PRESCO take overtake OKOMU that year..

ositadima1:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/8KALkISFxDs

Sirreleone..to pay keke for a ride, you need to hire a truck

Zimbabwe, you gaz book warehouse and issue key

Nice perspective and topic.
Whatever one is aware would naturally take place in marriage before getting married is considered a role and responsibility.

Whatever unexpected that happens in marriage that requires you to move away from your role or deeper into a role you never envisaged becomes a sacrifice.

ppogba:
No problem nao.

I go relocate to AMCON IDP camp on Cardoso road in Abuja.

Lol..