₦airaland Forum

yMcy56:
OPAY: FAKE SHUTDOWN SUSPECT ARRESTED

* Very good.
For those thinking they can continue to stay behind the keyboard to type nonsense or tarnish a company's image should continue...
This is an evidence that they'll be tracked down and arrested...

** It's remaining the one that issued fake letter on ACCESS ceasing to operate again.

https://nairametrics.com/2026/09/10/police-arrest-suspect-behind-fake-opay-shutdown-report/

https://punchng.com/police-arrest-woman-over-fake-opay-shutdown-notice/?amp

like the follow-up from Opay.
Access no go get their time.

jonnysessy:
Aradel on full offer.

SEPLAT on full bid.



I thought they are running the same type of business.

More you look, less you see.

Though Aradel started strongly and known as Refinery business before acquiring upstream businesses still at their Beta stage.

also, it is only wise and inevitable for anyone acquiring a Premium Refinery Business(DR) to hedge or defend against it by acquiring a Premium Upstream counterpart(Seplat).

Aradel is a far younger brother to both DR or Seplat. Not a premium scale in any way.
It inevitably receives the collateral damage in matters of choice.

(My opinion)

WhizdomXX:
Which tax case please

There was a massive sell off totally away from the market around November last year.
The ASI lost about 5%.

Both Foreign and Local investors were using it to protest the newly imposed Capital Gain Tax(30%) on Ngx Net-gains in a calender year of 10million and above amongst other nuances associated with it.

megawealth01:
There is no guarantee that al who's leaving nowid because of Refinery. Some persons might be leaving because of 2027?

Hmm..true sha.
But it hasn't triggered circuit breakers in the past.


Not to forget school fees things
Both for Nigerian primary and secondary school students and those sponsoring their summer resumption students abroad.


The problem is they are all coming at the same time this September... Promax sell-off

essentialone1:
*NAICOM Under EFCC Investigation - ₦100bn Fraud Allegation*

*What happened:*

- *EFCC detained and granted bail* to 2 top NAICOM officials:
- *Oluwatoyin Charles* - Director of Compliance
- *Olusegun Ayo Omosehin* - NAICOM Insurance Commissioner
- *Allegations*: Fraudulent insurance recapitalisation totaling *over ₦100 billion*
- Illegal collection of *1% of shareholders’ funds* — not paid to FG’s TSA account
- *₦200m and ₦300m* allegedly allocated as allowances to the 2 directors from recapitalisation proceeds
- *Ministry of Finance letter dated 6th August 2026* flagged it
- *NICON Insurance and Universal Insurance* sued NAICOM and got a restraining order
- *Commissioner Omosehin admitted* the NIIRA Act didn’t authorize the 1% charge after Finance Ministry ordered it

So the regulator meant to oversee insurance is now under probe for the recapitalisation process itself.

Wahala

yMcy56:
Their primary duty is to protect investors, so there's the need to always call them to sit up.

Do you know how much investors have lost in the last 2-3 days?

What you should know is that if that continues, it will not only affect NGX but will affect the country as a whole.

We're still trying to woo more investors, negativity can cause severe damage for both existing and new entrants if left unattended to.

Unlike previous sell offs where people are leaving the market hence circuit breakers might be required.(like the tax case)

This case involves people leaving the market to also re-enter the market.

So the funds are still coming back to the market.

Maybe to different stock(DR) and not just to your preferred stocks

jonnysessy:
This is not wickedness. Just stating the obvious, with the way the market is tanking, insurance stocks has little or nothing to lose. But, the big cap stocks with high prices will be sliding down daily until the IPO is done.

I get you though.
You're right. Just pulling thy legs.

jonnysessy:
The insurance stocks are already down, he that is down needs fear no fall........

Wickedness is that you?

4willer:
I don't think so. The electronic option will make it easier to control since people will apply using their BVN. Except people want to use multiple BVN and other data sets.

mikeapollo:
[/b]

I don't think so,
Rather, the electronic method could be used to detect and reject duplicate or multiple applications by the same person, which would not be the case if it were purely via hardcopy forms, like it used to be.
The electronic forms could be screened and sifted easily to disqualify or reject some applications

OK.. I see your angle now.
Yes, you guyz have a point.
it will reduce duplicates.

Though there's no ceiling on maximum quantity an individual can buy..

iskalamong:
It might exceed that.

Possibly

mikeapollo:
The use of electronic application might curtail or reduce the oversubscription to some extent.
From my understanding, any investor planning to use the hardcopy Application Form must apply for a minimum of 50,000 units (N26.25m)

Using digital method won't affect affect it much.
Non-tech savvy investors have banks managers, brokers, aids etc that will willingly collect paper copy/hard copy and help them digitize it.

It's no big deal.

Rather the electronic method will even skyrocket the oversubscription.

deathwing:
From the prospectus

If he manages to scale up capacity to around 1.4m as proposed with 90-95% full utilization.

He might be able to guarantee yearly dividend despite thin margins and debt obligations. No matter how small.

Scale is the koko for thin margin businesses.

SonofElElyonRet:
Just wondering how many units can a person get? Anyway I might just buy some and wait for what Mr market does upon listing. Don't want to go all in on the IPO

Oh ok... I don't know of any max.
No official cap limit.

"Patriotism is not a business strategy"...

Raider76:
That maybe the situation now. But Alhaji is a business man, and may be persuaded to give up more of his own shares or create new shares if the conditions are right. For example, the Abu Dahbi State Oil Company wants 20% stake. In exchange they offer to provided all the crude the refinery needs even at 1.4mbpd. If the refinery's situation at the time is such that they can't refuse the offer, Nigeria could get shut out.

He mentioned this in his opening speech thankfully posted by @ SonofElElyonRet

"Alternative crude supply agreements in multiple currencies."

We don't know if share issue agreement is(will be) part of the alternate-crude contract agreements.
He's not taking chances with the Nigerian supply market alone.

Streetinvestor2:
My oga lawyer I disagree with somethings here.The story that the Refinery is our collective wealth or asset is balablu
Then the part he won't pay himself first in dividend as no preferential treatment is another balablu.
This my opinion is hanged on one reason
A company with OS of 124 billion units. Alhaji has about 103 billion units to himself .
The government, PP and Nigerians have like 20 billion does not tell such story. So who really is going to take the largest chunk of any dividend declared.
If he really wanted me to believe it is national wealth creation for Nigerians. He should have not taken above 60% of the OS to him and fmly.
For wayo sake ,it is just 4.1 billion he is actually giving to over 200 million people not minding some non Nigerians are equal included in this OS

I think on dividend, he means he is not classifying his holding inyo a special elite class like preferential shares like some listed companies do where he is eligible to pay himself a fixed dividend for a few years irrespective of the loss-making of the refinery.
He means it will always rank pari-pasu with retailers:
If ee make loss,
no dividend alongside retailers.
If ee make gain,
same dividend alongside retailers

SonofElElyonRet:
So 20,000 units you think will be granted?

I did not get you well.

KarlTom:
DPRP

RIs have to pray really hard to get a sizable share of the up to 5.33bn units in the IPO.

Many PIs didn't get their fill from the PP...
The PP offered 3bn units. PIs applied for 14.1bn units. DPRP approved 7.5bn units.
Private Investors still have funds for 6.6bn units...

Every mallam to his kettle

Hmm...another angle.
This pointer almost certainly guarantees 100% oversubscription.
"almost".

SonofElElyonRet:
I have a feeling this thing upon listing will blast off like a space rocket to Mars. Those who couldn't get their desired quantity will hunger for more upon listing... I may be wrong though.. but the fact that not all applications will be fully granted would likely create a high demand upon listing.. plus there's a lock up period for private placers.. wetin I know sef
🚶🚶🚶

@bolded.. Most applicants will be granted.

The IPO will absorb extra 30% oversubscription.

SonofElElyonRet:
O lagbara
He should not give them out of the 10% set aside for the IPO shares

almost equivalent to a foreign sovereign country outside Africa asking to be a shareholder.
Even the 120bn that appears bloated fit even dey scarce for daily trade liquidity.

This is getting serious..
No be small international players Ooo.

awesomeJ:
is
Yes you're right. That's where those competitors should help us from from Alhaji's (can't find a word).

But perhaps they're preferring to join him like his cement colleagues did.

It's not only crude prices that have dropped compared to the highs of $120, even naira has strengtened by about N50 compared to when crude was at $120.

But as someone shared yesterday, Alhaji is maximizing profit this year. I think what was shared here was $1.8bn from $13bn sales. That's over 14% net margins, which is quite high for the refining business.

So I agree.

Why govt go put mouth like that when they re also among board of Directors and major shareholding beneficiaries of same profit-margin with their 7.5% stake?

How can you be a referee in your own match?

Won't be a 100% fair play.
Make we manage am like that.

"Banks backed us without seeing licence"

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2026/09/dangote-refineryll-become-worlds-largest-by-2028/

Build trust, honesty and transparency and good credit score amongst associates, friends and family.

It trumps paperworks and bureaucracy when the going gets tough.

Agbalowomeri:
Na the loss no make dem come out last year

if na you

KarlTom:
Q1: 111.67bn shares
Q2: 7.5bn shares (initially 3bn units but it was oversubscribed by 3.7 factor so an extra 1.5 factor was allocated)
Q3: not yet disclosed

111.67 + 7.5 + 4.1 ~= 123bn

If we add PP and IPO (7.5 +4.1), we have 11.6 (about 10%)

Weldone..thanks for insight and breakdown.

Sonnobax15:

One of my big sis is a victim of it.

I no dey pity anybody wey ponzi show pepper.

don't you guyz have family whatsapp groups where you guyz can advise each other share similar reality stories or recent beneficial updates?


I might even share this on ours to reinforce the learning in case some members don forget or think they have a trusted money collecting agent.

Agbalowomeri:
So NAHCO has dropped almost 50% from it's ATH

Lagos Airport undergoing a structural facelift..

Probably anticipated decline in building on its current momentum.

Yes, FCMB is recovering massively. With UK subsidiary and all.

But FCMB promoters, make una calm down on this una projections, especially on Dividend payout.

FCMB doesn't have a historic high payout-ratio

OS-66bn
Freefloat--over 64bn
free float- over 97% is bloated for a rapid Price appreciation up-to ₦25 as you guyz are hyperventilating it.

My Max estimated EPS for FY-2026 is at ₦5 ± 20%
(i doubt sha)
Yet even with this Max, the Max-dividend it will pay this Finance year is ₦1 ± 10%.
(20% of EPS).


It will get there gradually,but
Be calming down with the hype biko.

essentialone:
And it was sold off at N2.91


Guess how much is their profit if they decide to sell it today?

That will be 6,395% instant Gain.

Ewo!!
Ellah dey learn work be that.

womilojublog:
For centuries, the world looked at Africa through a lie drawn in ink. The Mercator projection, sketched by a Flemish cartographer in the 1500s for sailors reading compass lines, quietly became the map hanging in classrooms, newsrooms, and boardrooms everywhere. On it, Greenland loomed as large as Africa, though the continent is roughly fourteen times its size.

It was never really about navigation anymore. It was about how the world learned to see and to underestimate an entire continent.

This week, that distortion lost its grip on legitimacy. The "Correct the Map" resolution, put forward by African Union member states and the Bahamas, passed with overwhelming support: 164 member states voted in favor, six abstained, and only the United States voted against it. Togo led the African Union's campaign against the Mercator projection, and the resolution promotes the Equal Earth projection, a map that portrays the true proportions of the continents.

Togo's Foreign Minister put it simply: maps shape our understanding of the world they guide education, nourish the imagination, and influence collective perceptions.

A generation raised on a shrunken Africa doesn't just misjudge geography. It misjudges weight, relevance, scale of possibility. The resolution argued that the distortions in the current map have caused a "symbolic minimization" of the continent in the world's collective imagination.

For those who have crossed Africa's vastness in person its deserts, its rainforests, its cities stretching for what feels like whole countries in themselves the Mercator map was never just a technical curiosity.


It was a felt contradiction, obvious to anyone who had actually stood on the ground and measured the distance with their own two feet. Long before a vote in New York, that instinct was already correct. The world has simply caught up to it.

The resolution carries no legal force no atlas is required to change overnight. But symbolism has always been the real terrain of this fight. A truer map won't redraw a single border. It will, slowly, redraw the mind.

Womiloju Blog

All these write-up without
1)a picture of the supposed true map.
2) comparison with the old map.
3) Actual analysis of measured areas in Africa to support the live in-person measurement as different from geographical representation on maps.


Just speeches everywhere..

We seem to be too theoretical in this country and continent and just feel comfortable with the feel-good syndrome from motivational speeches..

essentialone:
How did Seplat and Bua Foods miss out on this expanded List?

Liquidity I suppose.

Even with the 4bn IPO.
about 30-50% will still be locked by institutional investors and HNI who don't seller trade easily.

Only about 2bn might be available for retailers to trade.

So despite the over 124bn OS, it might still be a scarce commodity on the floor.
Driving up the share price exponentially at any positive news.