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 Politics / Prof. Yemi Oke Writes US President Biden, PM Of Canada In Response To Chimamanda by Clevite(m): 7:00pm On Apr 09, 2023 |
Professor Yemi Oke has written a letter to President Joe Biden of the United States of America and Justin Pierre James Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada, in response to Chimamanda Adichie''s letter describing Nigeria's democracy as a Hollow Democracy. The Professor of Law describes Adichie's letter as "A Case of Extra-territorial Ethnocentric Politicking of a Non-Resident Nigerian-American" https://twitter.com/StFreakingKezy/status/1645117201492455428?t=la12tG4VvnHdxWgr8y9juw&s=19 87 Likes 20 Shares
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| Politics / Re: Most Comments On 2023 Election Are Informed By Ignorance Of Process - Nwaogwu by Clevite(m): 5:57am On Apr 08, 2023 |
Actually, the ignorant ones are the bad losers. They are those who could boast of massive win in their region only, but lost woefully in all other regions, but are claiming they won the overall election, simply because they won in Lagos State and FCT. Just because of that, they want the court to declare their candidate, Peter Obi, winner from 3rd position. They want to make Peter Obi the Supreme Court President. 6 Likes |
| Politics / Most Comments On 2023 Election Are Informed By Ignorance Of Process - Nwaogwu by Clevite(m): 5:46am On Apr 08, 2023 |
Most Comments On 2023 Election Are Informed By Ignorance Of Election Process - Ezenwa Nwaogwu Ezenwa Nwagwu is a leading voice on electoral reforms in Nigeria and a veteran in election monitoring and observation across the world. He is the chairman, Partners for Electoral Reform. In this interview, he expressed his opinion on the positive outcomes of the 2023 elections, while also highlighting what went wrong and how they could be strengthened. The just concluded general elections came with its challenge and some have described it as one of the worst elections, whats your take on this? As an election enthusiast, one who has participated in elections, not just in the country or in the Africa continent, but one has also been privileged to not just observe elections but also prepare election observers in some other countries of the world, I feel that after the 2023 election, it appears that Nigeria needs to set up a truth squad. I call it a truth squad because if we don’t do that, we will then be consumed by the lies, the propaganda, and the misinformation and disinformation that characterized public commentary and engagement after the election. First is the preponderance of the wholesale condemnation of the election by clear partisans. You know, everyone who has lost election, believes, and you hear them say that ‘this is the worst election since 1999.’ And that for me is scary, It is scary because it is not only a diabolical lie, it is founded on ignorance, ignorance of history, ignorance of process. [/b]Where are we coming from? It’s very, very important that we know that the journey for 2023 did not start in 2023. We have had elections, and those who say this is the worst, I actually have been reflecting in my head, what could be the basis of that? We transited from military to civil rule in 1999. That 1999 election was midwifed actually by the military. The next order of election that we had was 2003. But even before then, we started political party engagement in the 1920s by the colonialists. It was the colonialists, who introduced political parties, and those political parties were actually used to serve the interests they were introduced and ran by the colonialists. But our people who got into it, got into a platform that they used to engage the colonialists, right? And it was a national platform, especially for Lagos and Calabar. That gave opportunity for indigenes to participate in the activities of the colonial government. We moved on till about the 40s when we started having ethnic engagements, the parties such as the NCNC then called the National Council for Nigerian and Cameroon, and then later became National Council for Nigerian Citizens was a national national party. And that was the engagement, then we went back to ethnic parties throughout the 1940s, the NPCs, that’s the, Northern Peoples Congress, NEPU and all of those, we started going back to organising and mobilising of political parties along ethnic lines. We left there, up to the 70s to about 79, that was when the constitution started making it clear that we cannot tolerate ethnic political parties, and religious parties that are built on religion or ethnicity. So we started thinking of national parties, and all of that. So we came from somewhere, then we had military rule. The military rule impacted on democratic practice. [b]A lot of people today, who are involved in this thing, have no experience of democracy. All they knew is the immediate effects culture that we inherited. So this background is important, that we came into 1998 election organised and by the military. By 2003, there was no culture of expedience in terms of political organising. So the political parties that we had, were manifesting all kinds of negative tendencies. By that time, money bags have started taking over the parties, members no longer owned those parties. It now became the people who had the resources that owned parties. Membership dues were no longer paid, so it became a winner takes all. Do or Die really, that was what the then President called it. So we did not have a voter register, an authentic voter register in 2003. We didn’t have properly, indeed we had shoddy organised elections, and we had outright rigging. In most cases you could even be voting and the result of where you’re voting will be announced. In most cases the results were written in hotel rooms. That is where we came from.[/b] By 2007, the winner of that election have come out to say the process that brought me is not something that I can be boastful about and he set up the Justice Uwais Reform Committee, which has some recommendations. But from that process, we started organising to have a voter register and INEC bought about 130,000 laptops went to the wards to go and do registration afresh. And then we had a temporary voters card. After that, we went into smart card readers. We have permanent voters card now. So this is the process that we have come through to get to 2023. By 2023, INEC had a plan. That plan was shared with political parties, civil society, the media and all of that. We started with voter registration exercise, that voter registration produced for us a 93 million voting strength from 84million in 2019. Then we went into candidate selection process. The political parties recruited people who will fly under their banners. We went from there to creation of new polling units, all the voting points that used to be voting points were converted. So we now have 176,000 polling units away from the 120,000 that we used to have. All that was to create access for more voters to participate in the electoral process. So after that, there was claim and objection. The voter Register was placed in the ward and in the polling units for one week, for citizens to go and check whether their names were omitted or not. After all of that, we came to February 25th. So, election is a process, it is not event. I had to come to this process. So if all of this process had been concluded, significantly, it came to the D day. What happens on D Day? The D day is opening of polls, accreditation and voting, collation of results, announcement and then the new Electoral Act, which is also part of the gains that has made 2023 what it is, is that we have a new Electoral Act that has significant things that are embedded in it and it was the struggle of the media and the civil society that produced that law. What is in that Act? That INEC will have its money one year before elections, that people living with disabilities will be provided with assistive materials, not whether the PMB likes it or not. It is now compulsory that there can be review of results unlike when once a returning officer makes a call, you have to go to court to reverse it. Now, INEC can reverse and we saw that in Kano where Doguwa who had procured victory through coercion was cancelled instantly by the review of INEC and quite a lot of other issues. And many of the results that are coming from the states are being reviewed in Abuja. Unfortunately, there are people who are claiming hero status on account of something that were reviewed in Abuja, and they were mandated to go and announce it. The argument is that INEC failed in its promise to transmit the results electronically and in real time. Whats your take on this? On that D Day, which is election day, the main activities are voting and accreditation. According to every report available, there was 98 percent success in voting and accreditation, meaning it went well. Significantly, is the issue of results transmission, because I need to put this out there, result transmission process is manual. It is not electronic. INEC results transmission process is manual. Manual because once the results are collated and announced, it is entered manually into a form EC8a, and handed over to party agents and security. And if the media is interested, they can also get a copy before it is captured and uploaded into IReV. Now, the process of result transmission had worked effectively. The place that INEC incinerated itself was at the point of real time transmission. But the real time transmission is an audit. Result transmission process has already been concluded in the polling unit. So this IReV that has become the issue is an auditor. The IReV is an auditor. If the result that has been produced from the polling unit and taken to the collation centre is not matching with what was brought, the returning officer can refer to IReV; if there’s a dispute. If there is no dispute, then it is not important to go to the IReV. It is like the VAR in football. You have to score a goal. If there is doubt about the goal, you go to a VAR. You don’t subject every goal to VAR just because the opponent does not like the goal that has been scored; and says let us take every goal that has been scored to VAR. I think that is where the problem is. So, are you saying that INEC performed well despite the outcry? I am saying that INEC performed creditably well on the 25th of February in terms of process, the hitch that it had was in terms of real time transmission of results. [/b]And the jury is not yet out as to whether it is internal subterfuge or whether it is deliberate or whether it is technological glitch as we are made to see. [b]So the thrust of my conversation is that we cannot completely continue the narrative of saying everything was bad. We must also put out those things that worked significantly well in 2023. And one of the things we must protect going forward is the BVAS. The BVAS has helped us to ensure that Rivers cannot bring 3 million votes that used to happen in times past. Rivers, Lagos and Kano were the last results that used to come in every election in Nigeria. They waited until all other results are announced, but in 2023, Lagos results was among the first and it produced very significant low number of votes. So what used to happen, when people talk about voter apathy is that, I told you that we came from a place where we write results in hotel rooms and tell people to go to court. But politicians in 2023 were afraid of the BVAS, they don’t know what to do with it. And that accounted for the low numbers that you have seen. Meaning that some of the claims that we have made before in terms of our voting strengths, the BVAS has exposed all of that to be as a lie. It is important to stress this issues, because I said before that the foundation for conversations and public commentary has been more of propaganda than one that confronts the truth. And many times the issue around truth is that propaganda runs faster than the truth. So, propaganda is stretching the country, stretching its bones. And one of the intentions is to criminalise the institutions and make INEC look weak and ineffective because of just one challenge in the whole gamut of the process, which is the transmission. I hear people say ‘oh, the transmission of result impacted,’ I said no. If it is not celebrating our romancing the indolence of the political parties who have collated their results, they should have a parallel vote tabulation. We were inviting people to our own data centre. How many political parties invited all of you journalists to their own data centre to see the way results were being computed? They didn’t do that, even when they came to collation centre, they didn’t have anything. They were shouting: “stop results”. just like that? And that is gaining currency. So my background to all of this is that we need to save the BVAS, we need to save the institutions and protect them. But there were reports of violence and suppression of votes in many polling units. Does this not give credence to the complaints of irregularities by the opposition? Violence, suppression of votes, all of those things happened. But always remember that we have 176,000 polling units. So in talking about violence, we will no use purported observation. We have to use statistics and science. That is to say, in 176,000 polling units, how many polling units were affected by the violence, the voter suppression and all of that? And when we say that, we should also refer to what the media and civil society said when 19 new INEC officials were appointed. We came out to say many of these people who are appointed newly, lack experience, they have partisan background. Check where you have crisis in terms of opening of polls and see whether they are not located in the states that we highlighted, that there will be challenges. Many of them subverted INEC. We told people that somebody in Sokoto contested election as at 2015, under the banner of a political party, you appointed that person into INEC. We told Nigerians that somebody’s elder brother is a member of the National Working Committee of a political party, yet you appointed that person, no conflict of issue. When we took it to the National Assembly, the politicians who are crying today, they were absent from that conversation. They didn’t hear that conversation. So some of the manifestations that you see are a result of the internal subterfuge. Some of those who want to kill Mahmoud, let us also remember that Mahmoud came into INEC in November 2015. When he came in 2015, 10, or more active civil society actors were appointed into INEC. By 2023, the politicians pulled out all of those people, except one or two. Nigerians kept quiet and allowed that process. So the challenge for us is to reconstruct our narrative in a way that singles out the places where there were problems and not paint the whole election in black. And that for me is the crux of my engagement. Those politicians who didn’t show up when the CSOs took this matter to the National Assembly but are now crying and feeling aggrieved, can we then say that it serves them right? Like i said earlier, election is a process. Election is not an event. Election starts from the appointment of those who will supervise that election. Apart from the electoral integrity mix that we are going to have, the Electoral framework is also important, just as the appointment of those who will run the election. Look at Abia state for instance, on the day of the election. The resident electoral commissioner was locked up in a hotel. It took Commissioner of Police and the DSS to go and find him. Look at Sokoto, INEC had to ask those two to excuse them. In many of the states, they gave them money to activate RAC, they did not activate the RAC till it was late. They gave them money to get vehicles, get 100 and something vehicles, some got only 20 and asked those vehicles to be going back and forth. We have continually maintained that Nigerians, our vigilance should not be short sighted; we should not be short sighted in our vigilance. If we want credible elections, we have to follow the whole process, all the hog. But beyond all of that, this is one election that has thrown up something we have not seen in Nigeria. The chairman of a ruling party, the chairman of a ruling party lost his State. The President lost his State. The presidential candidate of a dominant political party lost his State. The Governors, some of them of the ruling party, lost their States. I don’t know anywhere in the world where somebody will lose to make other person look good. I’m still thinking in my head where a politician will say let me lose so that I can win in other places, because it is a thing of boasting for politicians that they won their place. So to lose an election is something that reflects that the process is effective, and it could not be manipulated. Look at Nasarawa for example, where many of them were actually members of the ruling party, but because of the internal crisis of their political party, they had to go to SDP for instance, and won election under that banner. So if you say the election does not go well, are you going to tell Senator Wadada to join you in that song? Are you going to tell the many Labour Party candidates all around the country who had won election, because if it was different, if it was when we were writing it in hotels, those people will not smell victory, because they will be told to go to courts? So these outcomes also validate the fact that first and foremost our BVAS has helped us, that at the top too, you are seeing review of elections. INEC has set up, abiding by the Eplectoral Act, reviewing most of the results. What happened in Abia, Obingwa for instance, it was not the intimidation that happened, happened there. It came to Abuja, it was Abuja that recalculated that result before it can come to what it is and asked that professor to go and announce So what is the way forward, and why should Nigerians trust that INEC in the off season governorship elections in Bayelsa, Kogi and the rest? We have told you about INEC capture. We have told you about internal subterfuge as well. So the election audit will expose all of that. I’m just saying that we need to be nuanced, the country needs to be nuanced in the way it engages election. And it must engage election from an informed point of view. So that partisan interests does not overshadow the commentary. People who have knowledge about this must speak up. That’s my challenge. And I’m saying those who have this knowledge must separate what has gone well, and what has not gone well and allow the judiciary that has responsibility, not by itself. It didn’t give itself that assignment. It is also part of the electoral process. Tribunals are not been set up ordinarily. [b]There are election petition tribunals that are also set up and I gave you example, I said President Muhammadu Buhari in 2007 won many parts of the country and by the virtue of that he was claiming that with that kind of results that he had, that he must have won everywhere. The court said no, you did not fulfill the conditions. There was protest. There were all kinds of things but we are here. By the time he won in 2015. The courts now told other people that they did not fulfill the condition. He was now saying the Judiciary is the last hope of the common man. Those people who lost are saying judiciary is a scam. That’s where we are. Those of you who are knowledgeable, and I know many of you are, should put this narrative out and make the country know that 2023 was not Armageddon. It was not a disaster. That INEC performed creditably well up to the point where that challenges came. [/b]Where that challenge came from, time will expose it. But for now, we will have to live as a country and allow the people who have responsibility to look into the issue, to look into it and the outcomes produced from it can be fine for all of us. https://nigerianpilot.news/2023/04/04/most-comments-on-2023-election-are-informed-by-ignorance-of-election-process-nwagwu/ 2 Likes 1 Share
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| Politics / Re: Osun Guber: Appeal Court Live Proceedings by Clevite(m): 1:24pm On Mar 24, 2023 |
vicdom:Are you in court too? Expecting fergie001 to answer me,unless you're also in court right now. |
| Politics / Re: Osun Guber: Appeal Court Live Proceedings by Clevite(m): 1:22pm On Mar 24, 2023 |
fergie001:Is this the ruling, or your personal analysis? |
| Politics / Re: Osun Guber: Appeal Court Live Proceedings by Clevite(m): 1:05pm On Mar 24, 2023 |
quickberry:Any clarification on this, please? |
| Politics / Re: Osun Guber: Appeal Court Live Proceedings by Clevite(m): 12:12pm On Mar 24, 2023 |
larryk2017:No more a matter of prayer at this point. |
| Politics / Re: Osun Guber: Appeal Court Live Proceedings by Clevite(m): 12:03pm On Mar 24, 2023 |
Here with you. |
| Politics / Re: Appeal Court To Deliver Judgment In Osun Governorship Tussle On Friday March 24 by Clevite(m): 7:56pm On Mar 23, 2023 |
yourshopkwikguy:Appeal Court isn't the last or final stage in Governorship election petition matters. The Supreme Court is the final stage. Only the National Assembly and the States' Houses of Assembly election petitions stop at the Court of Appeal. More so, Election Petition issue isn't the provision of the Electoral Act; it's a Constitutional matter. 4 Likes 1 Share |
| Politics / Re: Appeal Court To Deliver Judgment In Osun Governorship Tussle On Friday March 24 by Clevite(m): 6:38pm On Mar 23, 2023 |
Osun civil servants' most fervent prayers, since this judgement was reserved by Court, has been that may the affliction of APC Governor in Oyetola never befall them again. 29 Likes 1 Share |
| Politics / Re: Appeal Court To Deliver Judgment In Osun Governorship Tussle On Friday March 24 by Clevite(m): 6:34pm On Mar 23, 2023 |
Ademola Adeleke's destiny whether to remain a Governor, and that of Gboyega Oyetola whether to return as Governor, hinges closer to being made or marred tomorrow. 9 Likes 2 Shares |
| Politics / Appeal Court To Deliver Judgment In Osun Governorship Tussle On Friday March 24 by Clevite(m): 6:26pm On Mar 23, 2023 |
Adeleke and his immediate predecessor, Adegboyega Oyetola will on March 24 know their fates in the dispute over the July 16 governorship election.https://dailypostng.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/dailypost.ng/2023/03/23/appeal-court-to-deliver-judgment-in-osun-governorship-tussle-march-24/?amp=1&_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIUAKwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16795896674633&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fdailypost.ng%2F2023%2F03%2F23%2Fappeal-court-to-deliver-judgment-in-osun-governorship-tussle-march-24%2F 3 Likes 1 Share
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| Politics / Court Reserves Judgement On Osun Governorship Appeal by Clevite(m): 2:11pm On Mar 13, 2023 |
Adele Keep in his appeal rejected the ruling of the Osun State tribunal which nullified his election, describing it as a “miscarriage of justice”. The Appeal Court on Monday, reserved judgement to decide on the case by Senator Ademola Adeleke challenging the decision of an election petition tribunal which nullified his victory in the Osun governorship election. Judgement on the matter will be given at a later date as a three-member panel led by Justice Mohammed Shuaibu takes the arguments and adopts the briefs of all parties in the suit. During proceedings today, Counsel to Adeleke, Onyechi Ikpeazu, held that a member of the panel, who is also a chief magistrate, did not air her opinion during the Judgement delivery. Rather, she only appended her signature and the constitution mandates her to have aired her views about the suit. Counsel to Mr Oyetola, Lateef Fagbemi, however, held that mere signing of the judgment, and not making any comment afterwards does not make the judgment invalid. He noted that the case of over voting exceeded 6 polling units as claimed by the Appellant, adding that the anomaly was experienced in 744 polling units across the state. Fagbemi further stressed that the findings of over voting were obtained from the back end server of INEC. In their defense however, Onyechi Ikpeazu held that results stored in the backend server, are inconsistent and unreliable as they can be affected by internet connectivity and battery life of the Bvas used to upload the result. These two factors according to him can affect the upload. Adeleke’s counsel also stated that he conducted a physical examination on the Bvas, and it showed that over voting occurred in just six polling units, and not 744 as claimed by the Counsel to Oyetola An Over Voting debate Senator Adeleke who is candidate of the People’s Democratic Party had won the said election held on 16 July, 2022, the result which was nullified on the grounds of over-voting. Adeleke had in February, appealed the judgement of the Osun State Governorship Tribunal which nullified his election. The tribunal ruled in favour of a former governor of the state Gboyega Oyetola. While delivering the judgement, two out of the three-member panel of the tribunal held that Oyetola proved that there was over-voting in some of the polling units. But Adeleke swiftly rejected the ruling and described it as a “miscarriage of justice”. Weeks later, the governor filed an appeal before the Akure division of the Court of Appeal. In the 31 grounds of appeal filed on Wednesday, Adeleke prayed the court for “an order setting aside the whole decision of the tribunal”. The governor equally sought “an order striking out the petition for want of competence and jurisdiction or in the alternative, an order dismissing the petition on the merit”. “The second respondent cannot ‘go lo lo lo lo’ and ‘buga won’ as the duly elected governor of Osun state,” the governor said. “The tribunal, in its judgment, erred in law and displayed bias against the appellant when it made reference to the appellant’s dance at his inauguration as governor of Osun state which was never an issue before the lower tribunal,” Adeleke noted. “By referring to the appellant’s personal eccentricity for dancing, the lower tribunal derided and mocked him in a manner suggesting that it was biased against him. “The appearance of bias manifests in the reference to the Appellant’s proclivity for dancing and particularly the Buga song, has rendered the decision of the lower Tribunal a nullity. “The tribunal in its judgment erred in law in returning the 1st respondent as the duly elected candidate without due regard to the enormity of the voters in the units where the results were cancelled for overvoting.” https://www.channelstv.com/2023/03/13/breaking-appeal-court-reserves-judgement-on-osun-governorship-appeal/
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| Politics / Re: Appeal Court Hears Osun Governorship Case Today by Clevite(m): 11:16am On Mar 13, 2023 |
ollhans45:The votes for both PDP and APC were cancelled where there was over-voting. 4 Likes |
| Politics / Re: Appeal Court Hears Osun Governorship Case Today by Clevite(m): 9:46am On Mar 13, 2023 |
duro4chang:Both the PDP's main appeal and the APC's cross-appeal will be heard together today. 18 Likes 1 Share |
| Politics / Appeal Court Hears Osun Governorship Case Today by Clevite(m): 9:39am On Mar 13, 2023 |
Israel Omipidan writes that the Appeal Court sitting in Abuja will on Monday begin the hearing of the Osun state 2022 governorship election appeal case.https://www-thisdaylive-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2023/03/13/as-appeal-court-hears-osun-governorship-case-today/amp/?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIUAKwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16786950457518&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thisdaylive.com%2Findex.php%2F2023%2F03%2F13%2Fas-appeal-court-hears-osun-governorship-case-today%2F 5 Likes
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| Politics / Re: Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential Election: Inside The Opinion Polls That Got It Wrong by Clevite(m): 4:56pm On Mar 12, 2023 |
Electoral victory does not come by multitude of prophesies. Neither does it come by multiples of opinion polls. |
| Politics / Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential Election: Inside The Opinion Polls That Got It Wrong by Clevite(m): 4:51pm On Mar 12, 2023 |
What was accurate in the pre-election polls was that the polls predicted a three-horse race. In the weeks leading up to the 25 February presidential election, most polls predicted that Labour Party candidate Peter Obi would win the election and become Nigeria’s next president. But as votes were sorted and collated by INEC after the elections, nervous supporters and pollsters began to experience a sense of déjà vu. More ballots were ticking toward Bola Tinubu, now president-elect, than the polls had projected. No fewer than nine polls projected Mr Obi to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari in May. Only three of the public opinion surveys indicated the ruling party candidate Mr Tinubu would win the election. However, Mr Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos State, was declared the winner of the election after he scored 8,794,726 votes. Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) trailed with 6,984,520 votes while LP’s Mr Obi came third with 6,101,533 votes. Messrs Atiku and Obi, however, dispute the outcome of the election and have commenced a legal challenge against it. Although the true picture of pre-election polling’s performance is more nuanced than depicted, analysts said Mr Tinubu’s strength was not fully accounted for in many, if not most, polls. What was accurate in the pre-election surveys was that the polls predicted a three-horse race. That did not change as each of the three major candidates won in 12 states of the federation. The Polls that got it wrong In the third and final poll commissioned by ANAP Foundation and released on 15 February, NOI Polls said Mr Obi was leading with 21 per cent of voters willing to vote for him; 13 per cent said they were voting for Mr Tinubu while 10 per cent of them went with Atiku. However, a total of 53 per cent of the respondents were either undecided or refused to answer. This led to several people criticising the foundation and its research methodology but the organisation said the methodology used by NOIPolls was almost the “exact same” methodology that was used in previous presidential polls in 2011, 2015 and 2019. “In all those past presidential polls, the front-runner that was identified by our Polls ended up winning the elections, irrespective of a rather large percentage of voters who were undecided and/or refused to indicate who their preferred candidate was,” [/b]ANAP said. The foundation published two polls last September and December showing the Labour Party candidate as the most favourable candidate while acknowledging that undecided voters could tilt the outcome. [b]The outcome of the 2023 election, thus, shows that the 2023 polls were the first to be wrongly predicted by ANAP/NOIPolls. Another poll conducted by SBM Intelligence for Enough is Enough (EiE) Nigeria projected Mr Obi would win 15 states and cross the 25 per cent threshold in 25 states overall. According to the poll, Atiku would take 11 states and get a 25 per cent share of the votes in 27 states, while Mr Tinubu would win in nine states and get 25 per in 20 states overall. The poll did not project a winner for Imo State. It said it was “not confident enough to call the election for any candidates.” However, the forecast was in error as the three leading candidates all won 12 states during the presidential elections. On the other hand, Mr Tinubu is the only candidate that scored over 25 per cent of the votes cast in 29 states. Atiku got 25 per cent in 21 states while Mr Obi gained 25 per cent in 16 states. The SBM Intelligence survey polled 11,534 Nigerians and concluded that “Nigerians will need a second round to decide their next President definitively.” Eventually, the election was decided on a first ballot. To be returned president in Nigeria’s presidential election, a candidate must win the popular vote and score at least 25 per cent in 24 states and Abuja. Before the SBM survey, the Labour Party candidate was identified as the “preferred president” by almost 53 per cent of participants in Kwakol’s 1,008-person survey that was released on 13 February. Messrs Tinubu and Atiku both tallied less than 20 per cent. Then, a survey conducted for Bloomberg News by San Francisco-based Premise Data Corp said Mr Obi was the preferred candidate to become Mr Buhari’s successor with 66 per cent of respondents voting in favour of the LP candidate. Earlier in September, Premise Data published a poll where Mr Obi was the first choice of 72 per cent of participants. Messrs Tinubu and Atiku lagged far behind in the Premise poll. In the same vein, a 2,000-person survey published by Nextier showed that Mr Obi had the brightest chances with 40.37 per cent. PDP’s Atiku got 26.7 per cent, closely followed by Mr Tinubu at 20.47 per cent. A survey by Political Africa Initiative (POLAF) and BusinessDay found something entirely different and projected PDP would win the presidential poll. “Atiku secured 38 per cent to emerge as the preferred candidate, followed by Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who got 29 per cent, while Obi secured 27 per cent to take the third position. Rabiu Kwakwanso of the New Nigerian People’s Party (NNPP) is a distant fourth with only 5 per cent of the total votes,” the poll predicted. None of the aforesaid polls was bang on the nail as shown by the result of the election. The surveys that got it right A survey by Stears predicted victory for Mr Obi in the event that a large number of Nigerian voters turned up to vote. The poll projected Mr Tinubu to emerge victorious in a low voter turnout scenario. The voter turnout in the election was below 30 per cent, the lowest ever in Nigeria’s history, and the result seemingly validated the Stears poll. In the final results of the election, Mr Tinubu scored 37 per cent; Atiku 29 per cent; Mr Obi 25 per cent and NNPP’s Mr Kwankwaso got 6 per cent. Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research in its report on the election predicted Mr Tinubu to win but did not also rule out the “rising” possibility of a run-off. Fitch said while the election had traditionally been between the APC and the PDP, the vote would be a three-horse race for the first time since Nigeria’s 1999 return to democracy due to the popularity of Mr Obi, “especially among Nigeria’s urban and affluent voters.” Mr Obi’s campaign generated momentum that many people did not expect. But the ruling party and the main opposition, the PDP, had always dismissed his popularity saying he could not triumph on 25 February. They said Mr Obi’s supporters were only on social media and that his appeal was too thinly spread across the country’s states to give him victory. After the election, Atiku maintained that Mr Obi could not have gotten the constitutionally required spread needed to be declared president. Mr Obi won 12 states in the contest (five states in the South-east; three in the South-south; two in the North-central; one in the South-west, and the FCT). He also secured 25 per cent in only 16 states. “Yes, I agreed that he (Peter Obi) took our votes from the South-east and the South-south and that of course would not make him a president. You all know that to win the presidential election in Nigeria, you need votes from everywhere,” Atiku said at a press conference after the elections. Finally, Dataphyte Research conducted a “state by state ground-truthing stats,” which involved “analysing past voting patterns, voter turnouts, voter choice homogeneity, the religious homogeneity index, and so on” and “found the current scenario to be similar to that in the 2015 elections.” The media firm projected that Mr “Tinubu would win the popular votes and would be the only candidate to satisfy the spread criteria of a minimum of 25 per cent votes in two-thirds of the 36 states and FCT. The organisation said there would be no need for a run-off election. That poll got it right. https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/587189-nigerias-2023-presidential-election-inside-the-opinion-polls-that-got-it-wrong.html 1 Like 1 Share
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| Politics / Re: PDP Planning Chaos, Labour Party Mobilising For Another ENDSARS- APC by Clevite(m): 12:18am On Feb 27, 2023 |
For Labour Party, it's a case of the ill-fated Obidients Movement metamophozising into ENDSARS Movement. A planned re-invention of the Lekki MASCARA drama. |
| Politics / PDP Planning Chaos, Labour Party Mobilising For Another ENDSARS- APC by Clevite(m): 12:10am On Feb 27, 2023 |
The Presidential Campaign Council of the All Progressive Congress APC have accused the People's Democratic Party of putting undue pressure on Inec's residential electoral commissioners to alter the results of the just concluded General Elections before submitting same to Abuja. In a press release signed by the Chief Spokesperson of the Campaign, Festus Keyamo SAN and made available to Newsmen in Abuja the APC the Governing APC accused the PDP of trying to cause disparity between the results collatted unit by unit and announced publicly as well as transmitted electronically in oder to cause violent reaction from the citizens who will feel shortchanged, therefore causing chaos and crises in the land. In similar vein the campaign council also accused the Labour Party of mobilising some of it's "misguided youths" to hit the streets of major cities in Nigeria next week in a protest they described as another ENDSARS. Read the full statement below " Our usual reliable sources within the opposition parties who still have some modicum of conscience and altruism in their veins have informed us that chieftains of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are presently putting undue pressure on some State Resident Electoral Commissioners of INEC to alter the results duly collated in the States before proceeding to Abuja to submit the results. This is despite the fact that the collated results are already well known by the public and the political parties as they were publicly declared, unit by unit and at the State level and electronically transmitted. This is with a view of creating disparities in both the transmitted results and the hard copies and thereby sparking nationwide crises. We fully salute the resoluteness and steadfastness of these RECS so far and encourage them to continue their resilience in the face of such pressures. We salute INEC for organising, as we can see for now, one of the best elections in Nigeria from time immemorial. We also have reliable information that the Labour Party is mobilising some of its misguided youths to hit the streets in major towns and cities across the country next week in protests they have described as ‘another ENDSARS’ We are therefore SPECIFICALLY putting the law-enforcement and security agencies on RED ALERT to rein in these unpatriotic elements who are bent on foisting their will on the rest of Nigerians. We specifically call on security agencies to give the State RECs 24-hour close-guard and maximum protection as they travel to submit their results in Abuja. We shall henceforth be reporting anyone to security agencies, whether on social media or anywhere else who we identity as planning any kind of insurrection as a result of the yet-to-be announced results. We all have equal stakes in our country and we shall not stay idly back and watch some disgruntled elements take the laws into their hands. Thank you." FESTUS KEYAMO, SAN, FCIArb(UK) · Director of Public Affairs and Chief Spokesperson, Tinubu/Shettima Presidential Campaign Council. · Minister of State, Labour and Employment, Federal Republic of Nigeria. https://www.abujanetworknews.com/2023/02/labour-party-mobilising-for-another.html?m=1 3 Likes 2 Shares |
| Politics / Re: Labour Party Calls For Cancellation Of Presidential Election by Clevite(m): 1:04pm On Feb 26, 2023 |
But Obi's online warriors are already boasting of his victory! It is the politically naive Obidients that are pushing Obi to believe he will win this election which he himself knows in his heart of heart that he cannot win. 11 Likes 1 Share |
| Politics / Labour Party Calls For Cancellation Of Presidential Election by Clevite(m): 12:55pm On Feb 26, 2023 |
Labour Party, LP, has called for the cancellation of the ongoing presidential election as the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, cannot upload results into its server from the polling units. https://ait.live/labour-party-calls-for-cancellation-of-presidential-election/ 235 Likes 28 Shares
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| Politics / Re: 2023 Presidential Election Results From Polling Units by Clevite(m): 12:51am On Feb 26, 2023 |
[quote author=Pleasant01 post=121246305]Be like say na only sensible people dey online this night  [/quoteI didn't know I'm not the only person that has observed this. I can see and have read a lot of sensible,very matured and well articulated comments by the contributors on this thread. I had to go and be checking their profiles to know how long they've been on Nairaland.I found out that many of the commentators have been on Nairaland for years,but rarely make comments. It's a clear departure from the usual infantile, abusive,vulgar back and forth comments rampant on Nairaland in recent times.They dwell on issues,and even when they disagree;they have done so maturely. garfield1, grandstar, Kyase, Ravensckar, Efewestern, raskymonojendor, PoloG, aremso, Ttalk, tplayer, et al; thumbs up 👍👍 to you, gentlemen! Your matured engagement and intelligent analyses have made me stay off my Twitter account for hours now! 13 Likes 1 Share |
| Politics / Re: Nigerian Presidential Election 2023 (Live Updates And Monitoring) by Clevite(m): 6:19pm On Feb 25, 2023 |
ATAOJA WARD D, OSOGBO RESULTS PU : OPEN SPACE, BEHIND WOLE-OLA ESTATE, GBONGAN ROAD PRESIDENTIAL APC 117 PDP 84 LP 45 SENATE APC 110 PDP 127 LP 14 HOUSE OF REPS APC 83 PDP 143 LP 17 3 Likes |
| Politics / Re: Nigerian Presidential Election 2023 (Live Updates And Monitoring) by Clevite(m): 4:20pm On Feb 25, 2023 |
ATAOJA WARD D, OSOGBO RESULTS PU : 7UP, GBONGAN ROAD PRESIDENTIAL APC 119 PDP 103 LP 62 SENATE APC 103 PDP 160 LP 24 HOUSE OF REPS APC 98 PDP 168 LP 24 |
| Politics / Re: Were Chadians With PVCs Arrested At The Border As Charly Boy Claimed? Fact Check by Clevite(m): 10:36am On Feb 25, 2023 |
blahc007:I'll be interested in knowing that officer that confirmed as true this news that has been investigated and found to be false by a credible Investigative Journal as The Cable Newspaper. Did you read this news at all? The Head of Customs in the area said nothing of such happened. Who are in charge of land borders, except the Customs that have debunked the news? Could you please post the report of that officer that confirmed it, the video or pictures of the said 100 trucks and the 1 million Chadians, and the place they are currently being kept in custody, whether, Custom, Police, DSS or Army barracks? Kindly direct us to the credible news media that report the news as true also, please. |
| Politics / Re: Were Chadians With PVCs Arrested At The Border As Charly Boy Claimed? Fact Check by Clevite(m): 9:47am On Feb 25, 2023 |
Agbadolova:May I ask you too; can you truthfully say you're not being emotional and politically naive to think that the best candidate has emerged only if Obi win. |
| Politics / Re: Were Chadians With PVCs Arrested At The Border As Charly Boy Claimed? Fact Check by Clevite(m): 8:41am On Feb 25, 2023 |
Goodlady:Just going out to vote too. Bye! 😆 1 Like |
| Politics / Re: Were Chadians With PVCs Arrested At The Border As Charly Boy Claimed? Fact Check by Clevite(m): 8:40am On Feb 25, 2023 |
aylive02:Kindly direct me to your self-imagined point. 2 Likes |
| Politics / Re: Were Chadians With PVCs Arrested At The Border As Charly Boy Claimed? Fact Check by Clevite(m): 8:32am On Feb 25, 2023 |
Goodlady:The Police wouldn't just go ahead to broadcast me for merely saying I'm a rapist or a thief or carrying a gun. They know they need to do an investigation to know the person I've raped and the things I stole and the owners of those things. They would want to know I have a licence for the gun I carry. You see, the Police are professional enough to know the court deals in evidence and wouldn't want to charge me before a Judge on the mere FALLACY that says "In every rumour, there is a truth." If I didn't actually rape and didn't steal. Telling a lie against myself that I did so and broadcasting it will not make it the truth. 3 Likes 2 Shares |
| Politics / Re: Were Chadians With PVCs Arrested At The Border As Charly Boy Claimed? Fact Check by Clevite(m): 7:22am On Feb 25, 2023 |
Goodlady:Okay, let's do an experiment. Kindly send me your picture. Let me put it online and make it go viral with a story alleging that you were arrested by the Police last night when you were trying to escape with your neighbour's baby that you just kidnapped. Let's confirm that you actually did it, since out of every rumour there is the truth. 89 Likes 11 Shares |
| Politics / Re: Were Chadians With PVCs Arrested At The Border As Charly Boy Claimed? Fact Check by Clevite(m): 7:09am On Feb 25, 2023 |
Expect more of this kind of FAKE NEWS from today and the next few days, as this election progresses. It's all an effort to prepare the ground for excuse in anticipation of the impending loss of their candidate in the election. 54 Likes 8 Shares |
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