₦airaland Forum

Omo I just went to through the previous posts and I am already smelling VAWULENCE, indeed this year tru true make we no dey gree for anybody,
oya let the carnage begin in 3.2.1............

abbas01:
Right now, I trade using technical analysis, but I want to eventually incorporate fundamentals as well. Mutumina @davigle, based on your posts, it appears that you are a force to be reckoned with when it comes to fundamental analysis. I was wondering if you could help shed light on some basic information for a layman like me on events such as NFP, CPI, etc. I came across a post here (with a lot of grammar) wey someone mentioned BISI too, lol. What are they? How do they influence trading? And when to look out for them? What are the actions to take during these news/events? I wanted to get in touch with you directly, but I decided to put it out here so other rookies can benefit from the information you share. I appreciate your support and prompt response to my messages offline. Thanks!

Kudos to you on your progress and pls always have this in your mind that Rome was not build in a day, it will definitely take time before you begin to see consistency in your trading, you only need to persevere and continue to learn and study because once you master trading, you've literally gotten yourself an ATM machine for life, and that skill can neva be taken from you, considering that you are just relatively new into trading, I strongly will advise you to focus more on your technicals first before you begin to incorporate fundamentals into your analysis, doing that without a strong Technicals will wreck you, because fundamentals is more wide than technicals. but just take one step at a time before you start adding more tools to your tool box. To answer your question on fundamentals, there are two things you need to understand about fundamental analysis, and that is;
1. Understanding the market players and their role in the market place. the market players/participants if you remember your forex 101 (Babypips), they are central banks, big banks or investment banks, Hegde funds, commercial banks, brokers, and retail traders. All this are the market participants, but the most important class or group are the central banks and the big banks to some extent but more specifically the central banks. The central banks solely control the financial markets and they do that in the form of monetary policies. They are most powerful entities in the financial market aka the apex predators. The big banks can also move the markets by placing large positions in the market place but even they too always align theirselves with the central banks monetary policies. I dare to say that the central banks also manipulates the markets not everytime but they do it, through their speeches like the FOMC meeting, through manual intervention, check your charts on USDJPY in November when the pair went up as high as 150/151 level the Bank of Japan manually intervene in the price of USDJPY causing it to fall about 400pips or so in 1 minute, no big bank can ever do that, another example is the crash that happened in 2015 on all chf pairs you can check eurchf, when the swiss bank temporary took off the peg on the chf to the EUR, the pair fell heavily, a lot of brokers we liquidated, some famous brokers like fxcm declared bankruptcy before the the got to their rescue.
2. Monetary policy: this is the tool the central banks used to stimulate the economy and move the financial markets, this involves interest rates, GDP, retail sales, CPI, PPI, ISM, NFP and so on. all these are reports that you see on an economic calendar. all these are economic indicators, and the central banks uses this to guage how well or bad an economy is performing and they make decisions based off this indicators. Note this are not the only tools that the central banks use, there are also many other tools that they use but, these are kind of the major indicators that shows the health of an economy.

So you can see how wide it is and it is not something a newbie should go into, without first getting some level of experience in the market place, and I'm not peddling that you need to factor in fundamentals before you can be profitable, there are traders here who don't use fundamentals and they have been consistently profitable like boss Gabsonfx2 and peteregwu are some who I greatly respect here. My use of fundamentals stems from my personal research and choice, I realize that the big banks, hedge funds, and even quants (those that trade algorithms or hft) take note of fundamentals into their trading and they've been here for decades managing very huge and massive capitals. hope you find it insightful and I'll willing to help you out on here if you have any questions. For the BISI part it's called ICT concepts, it is a different school of thought in the world of technical analysis, just like the supply and demand traders or the smc traders and so on, it is not easy to learn but all I will say is that there are many roads that lead to Rome, the end goal is to be profitable in this market through proper management of risk, the tool or style that you use is irrelevant, it doesn't matter becos, a skill or style is only as good as the user. So just pick a style and dedicate your time and effort to it and with time I guarantee you, you will definitely see progress irrespective of what style you use.

I apologize for writing a long post. cheers

Geovanni412:
Gold na demon las las....

How you go pump reach 2060 begin dey drop like say person dey one corner dey press Buy and sell?

Hehehe 😂, my broda gold own still better, go check USOIL na that one be the real definition of werey... walaitalai ah don comot hand for oil. oil craze no be here.

richgen:
I believe you're an ICT trader from some of your trade analyses here
on your charts.

If you looked at the H4 chart of gold closely, you'll notice that it was
in the MMSM which started from 3 weeks ago and took out the
original consolidation low (15/12/2023) just yesterday during the
NY AM session.

So the moment the MMSM was done with yesterday NY AM session
by taking out the sellside liquidity and stabbed a little into the H4
BISI (13/12/2023), it had to reprice almost immediately into a buy program
which continues into today's NY AM session.

Kindly take your time to study the Weekly, Daily and H4 PD Arrays any day
you want to trade if you're going to use ICT concepts.

For instance, I knew the CPI news release would be used as a Judas swing
clearing the buyside liquidity of the relative equal highs on H4(both 9th & 10th of this month)
and then would reprice down to take out the original consolidation low (15/12/2023) of the MMSM.
And it played out just like that because the H4 MMSM program cycle had to be completed.

I waited for the buyside liqiudity to be cleared first and joined the sell as soon as the the dust
of the CPI news settled down and the price gave me an entry to the original consolidation low.

Today, I only bought after the PPI news released as soon as the 5th candle
started printing on the 1 minute TF and got out at the C.E of last week
Friday 1 Hour wick was tagged.

My point here is this: The higher TFs orderflow and PD Arrays are
vital to being successful with ICT concepts

Anyways, I'm still a fresher student of ICT.

Keep on grinding bro.

Yes of course I am also an ICT student, a die hard ICT students to the core, I only try to mix fundamentals with ICT concepts and I don't trade any other way.
you are right about the mmsm profile on the 4h chart, and if you checked my chart at the start of the week i was bearish on gold, from the cot report the commercials were net short and they added more short positions to their hedging program, meanwhile the non commercials who were net long reduced their long positions this made me believe that gold will sell because the next draw on liquidity was the bisi on the daily chart of 13/12/2023. And gold did sell all through the week but I foolishly fought against the trend, I saw some analysis online which made me totally forget and for go my analysis and I paid dearly for that mistake. looking at the chart on the 4h, price respected the -OB of 7 am EST of 05/01/2024 and also the SIBI of 5 pm EST of 08/01/2024 which was on Monday, the low of Monday created SSL, which was finally taken out yesterday after CPI stabbed back into both the -OB and SIBI taking out IRL b4 proceeding to take out ERL which was SSL residing at the low of Monday. I also was able to profit off gold, YM and NQ today because not only PPI moved it but it had began to rise due to geopolitical tension in the middle east, the strikes carried out by the US and UK combined force against the houthi's in Yemen sent both gold and oil flying, falling treasury yields and a low PPI released gave me the confirmation of dollar weakness as institutional orderflow is bearish on the DXY with price unable to break above the SIBI of 7 am EST 05/01/2024 on the 4h chart and the weekly SIBI of 10/12/2023, which is resting just above the 4h SIBI. so I long gold and got out at 2060 and I also longed YM and NQ targeting PDH, which hit tp and covered for yesterday's losses.

Going forward my focus on gold is on the high of last week Friday 05/01/2024 which was created by NFP as BSL is residing there. I see a +MSS with the candle of 7 am EST 12/01/2024 breaking the high of 7 am EST 11/01/2024 which is the high created by CPI. this makes last week Friday the next draw on liquidity. Another interesting thing to note is that if you check EU on either the daily or 4h chart, that the highs created by both NFP last week and CPI yesterday are equal to the tick. Besides institutional orderflow is still bullish as price continues to make higher lows.

my charts below on gold at the start of the week and the after math.

LossBenson:
Considering the upcoming CPI release and the potential impact on the markets, it's crucial to stay informed. I've been closely monitoring forex broker markets reviews to gauge the sentiments. https://www.linkedin.com/ The analysis on gold seems promising with a double bottom formation on the 4h chart, indicating a potential long opportunity. Despite the bearish trend earlier in the week, the inability to break key levels is noteworthy. The focus on institutional order flow and bullish market structure is wise. Additionally, maintaining a bullish stance on stock indices aligns with the prevailing sentiment and anticipation of rate cuts in March. The awaited CPI could serve as a catalyst, influencing market volatility. A low CPI may support rate cuts, while a high CPI could temper market expectations. It's a waiting game, but should the CPI favor a lower outcome, the mentioned price targets for US30 and US100 appear well-founded.

I hold the same opinion as you before CPI release but when it came out, the data was mixed, in the sense that the core CPI m/m came out flat, unchanged while the core CPI y/y came out higher, although headline CPI also came out higher, the Fed's aren't paying attention to it because they stated in their previous meeting that their focus is on core CPI, that inflation was finally dropping towards their 2% target but it may remain sticky on the way down there and this is due to wages inflation and they clearly stated that they will be paying more attention to wage inflation and try to bring it low meaning that they are paying close attention to the labour market which they still feel is quite tight. but if you go through the break down of the core CPI release, looking at food, shelter, energy, and the services sector you Will see that services inflation which is the wages inflation came out much lower than the previous month even though NFP came out higher (which we know that the data was revised) and jobless claims came out lower meaning more jobs are being created and more people are being employed in the labour market, yet still the wages/services inflation in the CPI break down is lower, it doesn't add up because it's supposed to be higher to confirm that the labour market is still tight. I was of the opinion that a higher CPI will tamper down the bets of rates cut happening in March, but even with the CPI results yesterday, if you check the CME fedewatch tool, the markets are still pricing in a 73% chance of rate cut in March, CPI didn't even deterred the markets, look at DXY after spiking up, it couldn't maintain the bullish momentum and it's still stuck in consolidation, check the treasury yields, 30y/10y/5y/2y, they all fell massively even on a higher CPI. this shows that the market did not accept the CPI data because the data is mixed. I am very much still bearish on the DXY and bullish on gold and stock indices... cheers

Finally network don land , e b like say village pipu cease all network for my area since yesterday evening, just checking the chart to see my gold sell trade yesterday chop stoploss. BLS abi Fed reverse dey mad with all their manipulation. Looking at the chart on the daily and 4h, ebi like say yesterday was statement bulls no win neither did bears win, market just go up down and con close for the middle. abeg make market close today make I no which way we fit go.

Gold buy, at current price stoploss at 5points take profit at 15 points

santos123:
Dec CPI in 3 hours... Nobody is talking about it.lol
Graceglory,what's your prediction?

Well in my opinion, nobody can predict CPI or any economic data, the only best thing to do is to wait for the data to be released, asses it and then act upon accordingly. with the markets pricing in and betting on rates cut in March due to inflation steadily cooling down towards the Fed's 2% target, a much lower CPI will definitely force the Fed hands to start cutting rates in March. personally I am expecting CPI to come out lower which would back the Fed's dovish stance on interest rates causing dollar to fall in price but should a higher CPI come out, this will definitely strengthen the dollar and all other asset class will fall. Although the crypto space maybe impervious to CPI because of the BTC ETF is still fuelling market greed in the crytop markets. that's my humble prediction...

BrightFuture48:
This is experience playing out, and when you're convince enough that there is no short cut. Is either you wait for the right time and strike or you unwittingly continue chasing the mkt while chopping koboko .

What boss GabsonFX2 is looking out for from my little understanding I gleaned from his posts is very simple but just too difficult for to follow. If you check out his chart well you gonna see the he's always looking atleast 2 bullish/bearish candle on D1 any addition would be confirmation provided atleast one of the last candle on W1 or MN1 corroborate. I tell you anything short of that boss would never take the trade. It a very strong trend following system. It uses a very wide sl that always practically impossible to hit except if the mkt has changed direction. You can also employ that too just to avoid been taking out always like your recent trades on oil and gold. Double your SL and reduce the lot by half, you will essentially be risking same amount and chance is that you will have more win rate.

Now the problem how many of us is using that chart(D,W,MN) for analysis and trade? The hasty nature of us won't allows. We always like to be in a trade.

Bossmi may the Lord bless you richly for opening my eyes to this, thank you very much sir.

Good morning folks, today is greedy bastard day and I am feeling wicked dis mawin because my long awaited CPI is today by 2.30pm. make I go prepare cos me and Powell get some scores to settle 😁. D wey I am feeling dis mawning, I fit choke slam Powell ati Yellen at the same time 💪.
I'm looking to go long on gold, because I see price formed double bottom on the 4h chart, even though price has been bearish all through the week, it has been unable to break below 2020 or take out the low of Monday. so far institutional orderflow looks bearish on the LTF. I'm looking for an opportunity to go long when I see bullish market structure. meanwhile I am still bullish on stock indices because order flow is still bullish and the stock market greed is still on which is being fueled by markets anticipation of rate cuts starting in March. it will be dangerous to go against the markets sentiment. the long awaited CPI is the catalyst that will spur volatility in the market as a low CPI number will definitely fuel and support fed rate cuts starting in March while a high CPI will dial down on the bets for a rate cut and also caution market greed. I hope to see a low CPI number being released but it's still in the hands of the BLS to decide what numbers will be released, I definitely will wait to see how it would come out but should CPI come out lower, my price target for US30 is 38100 and US100 is 17000

may the markets smile on us today ahhhhmiiiiin.

WOW, Bitcoin is pumping mahdly, 2500 points floating profit, I've set to at 50k.

dmahn:
You need someone with you on this journey, especially an understanding bae wey go carry bwess put for your mouth when Mr market just dealt with you.. Your whole head will just reset, cool and calm... .... But what if she breaks your heart the same day you lost an account 😂😂... No mind me.. I dey on colos

My brodaaaa, na where ah wan see babe when na so so charts ah dey look all the time...🤣😂

Just in BTC ETF has been approved by the SEC, BTC to 50k let's wait and see

Wuna dey see d spike way just happen for Bitcoin, Omo things dey sup ooo, but no shaking cos ah no dey gree for anybody, diamond hands lasan

GRACEGLORY:
The majority of "investable" money in the world has not been able to access cryptocurrency markets up to this point. That's because significant financial institutions own it. Furthermore, regulations at the majority of those institutions restrict their capacity to directly deposit client funds into cryptocurrency.

But an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks bitcoin would effectively enable those big companies to circumvent those regulations and use client money to invest in cryptocurrencies.


If this be, guys, if you already have good positions and diamond hands. You’re made

Diamond hands brooo.

GabsonFX2:

Bossmi abeg no laff me, pls take me under your wings for I am meek and ready to learn, my eyes have seen damburouba shege banza and my senses are very much alert and receptive to learn. ejo edakun sir. 🙏🤲

greatcheer:
@fam which forex broker can one resident in USA use

you could try the famous and reputable ones like panda, fxcm, forex.com, etc.

one thing that is common with US brokers is low leverage, they won't offer more than 1:50 leverage because of strick regulations in the US.

BrightFuture48:
I wish I can be this patient. One is in "trade' invariably and that is far better than been in a lossing trade due to impatient In jumping in nonclarity and low quality signal.

Waiting is a virtue in this game, I wish I improve on it this part this year.

Honestly you are right sir, our African proverbs say what an elder sees while sitting, a child cannot see it even if he climbs a tree.

Na only boss Gabsonfx2 know wetin him dey see for chart, because I don chop beating taya dis week and na lack of patience dey kill me. I have been trading impulsely and its killing me 😢

Edd1e:
Usoil mad gan. Volatile and can be directionless for sometime before moving in your intended direction

Na wetin pain me ooo, my sell trade was only 30 pips from my target, and I was having confidence day price would come down and hit my target even when market reversed. Only for me to check it now and see it drop heavily after price don take me out, infact ah don delete USOIL from my pairs, ah no go touch am again, because dey way she dey do she go soon gimme BP

dmahn:
Stay away from chart small bro.. You need a break.. Not everyday is a trading day... Relax and enjoy life without forex for like 2 or 3 days, invite ur bae make she come over, .. Very very sweet ... You ll resume with a cooler and beautiful mindset...but you see checking market everyday fit kill person 😂😂😂

My bloda 😁 na d problem b dis ooo. ah no get any bae ooo😅 na forest trading be my only babe, infact I dey addicted to her sotay my body go dey do me wan kind if ah no look chart 😥

Davigle:
my total positions, usoil sell, gold buy, bitcoin buy, us30 and nasdaq buy. let's see how it goes. besides I risk 0.3% per trade Incase you're wondering why I have many positions open

So far, oil and Gold ended in loss, us30 is up 170 points in profit, nasdaq is up 110 points in profit and Bitcoin is up 1800 points in profit. profit has covered losses incurred by gold an oil with some change.

Davigle:
And in a twinkle of an eye USOIL did me dirty, stoploss hit, honestly I've come to realize that crude oil is tougher than gold.

Oloriburuku ni gold ati oil sha, the 2 werey hit my stoploss, especially oil, make wuna check USOIL and see how she is selling, after hitting my stoploss of 100 pips ooo, dis evil girl went up and hit my stoploss, trade that I've been holding since on Monday. Gold sef no too pain me, na d way oil take dey sell as I look am dis evening naim dey vex me d more. O God I have suffered....

Davigle:
my total positions, usoil sell, gold buy, bitcoin buy, us30 and nasdaq buy. let's see how it goes. besides I risk 0.3% per trade Incase you're wondering why I have many positions open

And in a twinkle of an eye USOIL did me dirty, stoploss hit, honestly I've come to realize that crude oil is tougher than gold.

my total positions, usoil sell, gold buy, bitcoin buy, us30 and nasdaq buy. let's see how it goes. besides I risk 0.3% per trade Incase you're wondering why I have many positions open

last trade call for today is Bitcoin buy at current price stoploss at 44000
Nas100 buy stoploss 50 points

US30 buy at 37530 stoploss at 37480 target at 37680

Gold buy at 2032
stoploss at 2027
tp open

meanwhile my short on USOIL is still open, I'm still bullish on Bitcoin even though the spike that happened last night took me out of the trade, I'm looking for an opportunity to go long again

Davigle:
Bitcoin and USOIL are in floating profit right now.

closed gold trade for a small loss, gold is range bound today I won't touch until Thursday

Bitcoin hit stoploss after tapping 47k again

LincolnOnyeabor:
I was on the Gold Buy too since morning. Price was just fluctuating and ranging and my TP was 2040.

Almost Immediately I closed with about $600 profit at 2036, Gold just Pumped to 2041!

That move would have helped me secure about $2,000 added profits to the Competition Account.
I'm so paineeedddd

Well I just closed mine for a small loss, Gold seems to be ranging...

Davigle:
BTC is just a 100 points shy from 47k, my entry was at 46500k,

Usoil sell at current price stoploss 100 pips

Gold also buy with 100 pips stoploss

Bitcoin and USOIL are in floating profit right now.

closed gold trade for a small loss, gold is range bound today I won't touch until Thursday

BTC is just a 100 points shy from 47k, my entry was at 46500k,

Usoil sell at current price stoploss 100 pips

Gold also buy with 100 pips stoploss

Afyer the huge spike seen on BTC, I don't think BTC will sell any more as it seems sellside liquidity has been taken out.

BTCUSD buy at current price stoploss at 46000 target is 48000.
fingers crossed