You people are very funny.

What do we produce in Nigeria ?

What is our export data like?

What was the exchange rate management system before now?

All I see here are people comparing food prices and using that as a yardstick to determine if the president has failed or not.

Food that is even imported.

The stats could be correct.

Let themenqct very strict laws for offenders a d implement.

JASONjnr:


And to add to your comment.

If CBN wasn't corrupt. What would stop them from making announcements to debunk the hike in the dollar price as he claims. Rather than filling up the gaps because of the margins in the price.

CBN literally benefits more from the hikes. The CBN buys dollars from world bank directly at a relatively cheaper amount but keeps selling at a higher rate.


The point ills, CBN control the BDC and they make lots of money from them.

Sir World Bank does not sell dollars.

The level of understanding and awareness is mind boggling

Nbote:


Now this is an analysis of someone who genuinely wants to have a conversation. Yes your analysis just broke down how many of these fake ads hike prices on Binance but then attributing it to the freefall of the naira is am overkill. Where do BDC operators get their USD from if not the banks? Where do banks get their USDs from if not CBN. The CBN sells dollars to banks who inturn sell at a profit. The CBN allowed itself to be used as the wallet of the political elites and that's what we are suffering from. The manipulation isn't in Binance, the Manipulation is by the same political elites who have amassed so much monies to influence whatever they like.

Point of correction Sir. Banks no longwr sell USD to BDCs. They stopped since 2020 after a CBN pronouncement.

It is you and I and all other players in the system that do.

I give you a typical example. When you apply for PTA /BTA, the expectation is that the unutilized portion will be returned back to the bank like we had in the days of travellers cheques. But alas it will end up in the parallel market.

Infact some people just collect and it ends up straight in the parallel market.

Same applies to the subsidised USD that govt allocates for pilgrimage and it's only in Nigeria that we see govt subsidising USD for people to go for pilgrimage, an activity with no economic value or benefit to the country.

We also have exporters that under report their export proceeds and route the difference to the parallel market.

There are also the retail sellers and do you even know that at some point manufacturers that were being allocated dollars for importation of equipment and raw materials by the CBN through the banks sometimes just take the dollars and sell in the parallel market because its actually more profitable for them.

The parallel market infrastructure is a complex Web of operations spanning Ghana-Dubai-Nigeria-china -uk-USA-India etc and way more organised than we think.
It goes deeper the the operators you see littering the streets. At the backend there is a complex web and hierarchy of transactions

At some point they were flying in dollars from Dubai and Ghana to sell in Nigeria.

Everything isn't about banks alone and banks aren't even allowed to hold more than 20% of their assets in USD.

Y'all want to fight the corrupt manipulative system? Then stop been greedy.

God bless Nigeria

The high cost isn't from the manufacturer but from thrme key distributors and middle men.

Depot hasn't really changed and load time is still 2 weeks per KD.

The KDs are buying and hoarding. The retailers are also not helping matters and hiking prices by passing g on the rising cost of business to the end user.

I think it's fair to know where the real issues are coming g from.

HarunaWest:
Oga calm down. 90% of the whole raw material for cement production is sourced from Naija. Its only machinery maintenance and spare parts that are secured abroad. Is this enough reason to just increase the orice of cemennt abnormally? Why did Dangote stop production in 2 trains all of a sudden? Nigeria have given too many elites monopoly, thats what we are suffering right now. If everyone was given a level playing field, we wouldnt be in a fix right now.

The manufacturers are not the ones increasing price..


Govt should go after the key distributors and
middle men who are benchmarking the price of a local product against the dollar

Kukutente23:

What does dividend payout ratio have to do with the value of the money you gain from the share? Has any of the companies you listed given you dividend payout ratio of 100% to cover for the devaluation? Because you just dance around with your funny calculation and ended up with an IF that's unrealistic. You can inform us when transcorp share price appreciated by 200% within a single year never mind your 1000% claim.

You're just making empty boasts. Let's take zenith for example. In 2019, the share price dipped from 23 to 18naira and they paid 2.8 per share. So you're telling me now that your parents did not incur loss on their zenith stock in 2019 but were still balling hard like Warren Buffet. Dey play. Zenith is the most lucrative bank share in Nigeria BTW and if it had that kind of poor return, just imagine for others!
Warren Buffet for your info owns the longest trail track in the US. So he's not all about stocks and even at that, I'll find it funny if anyone is comparing US stocks with Nigerian stocks. As in are you playing or serious?
@enigmatic16, be careful around this guy. Most of the figure he's throwing around do not reflect reality and that's why he keeps using IF and conjectures.
Imagine claiming that as at 2004 him and his siblings were done with education, his parents live in their own house and were on a health plan as if all those add anything to stocks. Be careful with him.

I sincerely do apologise to you and everyone here for engaging with you.

You lack of understanding of how dividend payout ratio can impact the value of returns on investments clearly demonstrates that I shouldnt have engaged you at all.

I also made the mistake of not going through profile. I should have known better.

I also apologise publicly to my folks for placing them on a pedestal for some nameless person to have unfettered access to talk anyhow to them.

For your information. Please read about dividend payout ratio below

The Dividend Payout Ratio (DPR) is the amount of dividends paid to shareholders in relation to the total amount of net income the company generates. In other words, the dividend payout ratio measures the percentage of net income that is distributed to shareholders in the form of dividends.

This is my last post on this thread.

Kukutente23:

What does dividend payout ratio have to do with the value of the money you gain from the share? Has any of the companies you listed given you dividend payout ratio of 100% to cover for the devaluation? Because you just dance around with your funny calculation and ended up with an IF that's unrealistic. You can inform us when transcorp share price appreciated by 200% within a single year never mind your 1000% claim.

You're just making empty boasts. Let's take zenith for example. In 2019, the share price dipped from 23 to 18naira and they paid 2.8 per share. So you're telling me now that your parents did not incur loss on their zenith stock in 2019 but were still balling hard like Warren Buffet. Dey play. Zenith is the most lucrative bank share in Nigeria BTW and if it had that kind of poor return, just imagine for others!
Warren Buffet for your info owns the longest trail track in the US. So he's not all about stocks and even at that, I'll find it funny if anyone is comparing US stocks with Nigerian stocks. As in are you playing or serious?
@enigmatic16, be careful around this guy. Most of the figure he's throwing around do not reflect reality and that's why he keeps using IF and conjectures.
Imagine claiming that as at 2004 him and his siblings were done with education, his parents live in their own house and were on a health plan as if all those add anything to stocks. Be careful with him.

There you go.

Transcorp Hotels and Transcorp Holdings. Focus on the performance history

.

.

[quote author=enigmatic16 post=127929520]

Hi, i couldn't help resist your knowledge on NSE market. I am currently studying finance to major in investment banking, and i know for a fact that everything you wrote is correct. I recently just learnt about different type of financial securities and how to compare different funds and how it is important to understand the economy and market where these securities trade. Do you trade by yourself or use an app or financial institution or investment dealer? I am asking because i want to learn to trade by myself, i am currently not in Nigeria, last semester in school, they asked us to open a simulation account on Questrade to trade as course work for a semester but it was a bit confusing as i was just getting exposed to most of these concept as at that time, i will like to learn more from you if you do not mind. [/quote

Hi,

I was going to send this to you privately but I will put it here

1) there are a few books I will recommend

Richest man in Babylon

Intelligent investor

The Investor's Handbook: Stocks Made Easy


By Iyeke Oghenefejiro Emmanuel. You can also follow his Instagram handle your_moneyguy

There are a few others but ultimate is to read alot of the relevant books so yiu build the right knowledge, skills and competencies

Also understand that there are two ways to make wealth on the stock market. Through capital appreciation and dividend payout.

Capital appreciation is when you buy at a price, value goes up and the margin between the buy and sell price before is profit but please not that it's paper profit until you decide to sell. The trick with this is to always look for opportunities to buy stocks selling below their intrinsic value with sound fundamentals and use what I will call cost averaging to spread your purchase.

Cost averaging basically is cost averaging is the practice of investing a fixed amount on a regular basis, regardless of the share price. It's a good way to develop a disciplined investing habit, be more efficient in how you invest and potentially lower your stress level—as well as your costs

For example say you want to buy 100k units of zenith. Instead of buying the 100k at once you can decide to split the purchase into tranches so you have different price entry points

For dividend payout, focus on stocks that have good and consistent dividend payin history. Again try to buy low here so if they pay good dividend you get a higher payout ratio.

There are alot of capital market operators yiu can use but I would recommend you look at Yochaa, Bamboo, Trove or Chaka. They are good , have mobile apps where you can trade on the go yourself and minimum opening requirements is affordable and they also allow yiu to invest in US traded stocks on their apps too.

Also I think you can also build like a dummy / model portfolio with these guys and learn a bit of trading if trading is what you want to do.

I will stop here. You can reach out to me directly if you need any further clarification.

Thanks

Alba3:
It will certainly be better! Dollar and heavy payments for transportation are no longer involved!

Buying crude from NNPC, shipping abroad to process and using scarce Forex to buy and ship back is crazy. These people and Dangote group should be monitored not to rip off the masses!

Dangote does not owe the masses anything.

We run a capitalist economy largely driven by profit plus how do you expect him to pay off the loans

Now to your post. Crude is priced per opec pricing and even better to price in dollars than naira because naira pricing means devaluation will reduce any cost savings

Plus he has alot of expat working on site paid dollars.

He currently has about 3k Nigerian engineers in training to take over the Indians.

He has to do special training for the Nigerian engineers to avoid stories that touch at the refinery and because apparently our Nigerian engineers are desk top engineers just like we have alot of desk top analysts here....😄😄😄

In summary prices will reduce but not immediately

The man is not one of our Nigerian pastors that perform TV and social media miracles.

God bless Dangote
God bless Nigeria

Throwback:
Even if Dangote buys Crude Oil at international price that has been set, then his refined products should be cheaper that what we import, as importation (shipping) and port and custom charges have been totally eliminated.

Also, the cost of labour to operate his refinery in Nigeria is way cheaper than the cost of labour of the foreign refineries whose products we have been importing.

You are correct but it won't be automatic.

He has alot of expats working on site paid in dollars.

The cost of this and currency devaluation of the NGN to USD will be passed on to the end user.

Ultimately prices will find a common ground once operations is at full capacity

Kukutente23:

Unfortunately you sidestepped the question because it exposes the fallacy in your statement.
You claimed your parents have been making a living from earning dividends these past years and I called your attention to the fact that stocks plummeted badly between 2008 to 2012, had a steady rise, then plummeted further all through the Buhari years. As a matter of fact, Nigerian stocks were the worst performing in Africa at one point in the Buhari era.
So can you explain how your parents were living off plummeting stocks all these years?
Instead, you delved into stories of how stocks are cyclic. Nobody asked you the nature of stocks. You're not the only Nigerian who invested in stocks. Stocks plummeted more times than it rose in the last 16 years. Kindly explain how your parents were living off same stocks when the likes of Otedola, Elumelu and co lost money.

You are free to take whatever advice tickles your fancy. Just don't come here and be deceiving yourself in a bid to impress people. I still stand by what I said that the real values of stocks have been eaten up by currency devaluation. If you were truly for the long haul, you'll know this!

One last time. @ppogba please forgive me.

Please check the dividend payout ratio for the under listed stocks from 2002 till date

Zenith
Gtco
Uba
Access
Dangote Sugar
Dangote Cement
Nestle
Guiness
Nigerian Breweries
First Bank
Fidelity

To your question, my parents were living off the dividend earned from the aforementioned portfolio and as I mentioned earlier, they have been investing since 2000s. A few of the aforementioned also issued bonus shares within certain periods mentioned further increasing their holdings. The fact that the price of a stock plummets doesn't mean they can't pay or distribute good dividend especially if the fundamentals are good and the coy continue to be a going concern which is the case with the companies above

My parents are not day time traders that buy and sell or panic when the market plummets. They buy and hold long term just as the likes of WBuffet.

They even have zenith shares in their portfolio bought at ten naira in 2004 via the first ever IPO and they have consistently received dividend on this since then till date

At some point they were reinvesting proceeds from dividend payouts back. And they didn't have any heavy expenses to worry about. Myself and my siblings are were all done with school so no school fees. They dont have to bother about rent because they are owner occupiers and we have comprehensive health insurance for them...

So to answer to your question again incase you missed it. Dividend payments from the aforementioned stocks irrespective of market cyclicality because they companies have been and will continue to be going concerns

Zenith, Gtco, Access and Uba posted double digit PBT all through out Buhari's reign and NGX was the best performing exchange GLOBALLY during Covid. Go and fact check this. Market cyclicality is temporary

Infact some coys above were paying divindend twice a year (interim and final). So whether prices fall, they held on to and enjoyed dividend payments and also because they luckily purchased when prices were good and at a bargain all their holding have paid double digit dividend payout ratios for the last ten years. And they did their transactions in naira. No dollar input what so ever

But you know what you are very correct and I am very wrong. Infact I am very sorry for all my rantings. I will delete them now...😄😄😄

You win I lose...I won't comment again. You are the master and I am just a nobody seeking validation from faceless people on NL


I know what I made last year from the market (capital appreciation that has beat devaluation 5x last year plus dividend payouts too.

Infact let me do the analysis

YTD from 2023 currency devaluation is around 114% if we bench mark official rate

See calculation below

(967-450)/450=114%
A. B. B
Where A is current official rate today , B is rate at end of 2022

The 2022 YTD devaluation if Parallel market rate is factored is around 80%

See calculation below

(1350-750)/759=80%
A. B. B

Let's add inflation which unfortunately has grown Month on month to around 29% and about 176% absolute growth from 2022 YTD till date. So combined 290% growth official.and 256% combined with parallel rates

So if I buy transcorp within the same period and its grown by over 1000% what it means in real terms is I have gained 1000%-290% or 256% returns in real terms. This is called economic profit and this is from capital appreciation alone. Average dividend payout ratio from the aforementioned stocks is around 12.5% which increases the rate of economic profit!

Again how will currency devaluation affect the designated investments if the real returns beat devaluation, inflation and even the opportunity cost of investing in other assets combined?

So sorry for the rants

Talk is cheap and ignorance is bliss

Guess what? I love to talk alot and my name is bliss!

Cheers!

God bless Nigeria!
God bless NGX!

The grass is not green on the other side, the grass is green where you water it

Kukutente23:

Wow!! A smart Nigerian. That's something not easy to come by. The rest of us are generally dumb. Were your parents also making huge dividends in the late 2000s when stocks plummeted due to excessive insider trading? Show us the magic they applied so other Nigerians can learn.
What about the buhari years when stocks were generally in the red? It seems you were immune from such systemic losses. Kindly share your wisdom with us

Market is cyclical everywhere even in the US,UK etc.

The logic is simple invest in companies with sound fundamentals that pay dividend and have market liquidity. Getting information about these is simple as ABC.

Zenith GTCO UBA Access UCap Seplat ETI DangCem DangSugar etc have consistently paid dividend in the past 15 years. The records are there.

The markets plummeting doesn't mean the losses will crystallise. Your losses or gains crystallise when you sell. Infact stock markets plummeting is a good sign to increase my position in designated stocks because yiu buy at a good bargain

Investing in the stock market is a long term trajectory. It is not sporty bet or bet naija.

Warren Buffet made his money from the stock market

I will stop here and follow the advice of ppogba.

Infact my holidays end next week so I will be back to my hiatus on NL

Cheers

Kukutente23:

Generational wealth indeed. Go and ask those who created generational wealth in the 2000s.
The whole scenario is based on banks activity and they are being shored up by forex activity and govts. Most manufacturing and services company are not having it good in the country right now. That's a fact.

I have and I am still creating generational wealth from the NGX.


That it hasn't worked for you doesn't mean you condemn it in its entirety.

If you invest diligently I'm coys with sound fundamentals that also pay dividend l. You will have peace of mind. Stock market investment is a long term trajectory

Nigerians on the other hand like the quick and easy way out. Look for coys with sound fundamentals, market liquidity, history of dividend payments and propensity for capital appreciation, invest consistently and watch your money grow.

Majority of the wealth of the likes of JBezos, Walmart, BillGates, EMusk,MZukaberg etc were all built on traded stock exchanges.

Same here in Nigeria JimOvia,ToE, Dangote,Bua ,FOte etc

The dividend payments from my parents early investments in Zenith,Gtco, UBA, access is what they are living off today. Infact the accumulated dividend they have received over the years have more than paid for the investments multiple times over and they are just on cruise control now

I have also benefited. I made a neat 9 figure ROI from NGX in 2023 alone and have doubled my investments in 2024 in some selected stocks.

Imagine investing circa 25m in Transcorp, 10m in Ucap and 15m in dangsugar and nascon at the start of 2023 and offloading at the end of 2023.

Do the maths

God bless Nigeria


Watch out for Dangote’s listing of the refinery in 2024 early 2025. Another opportunity to create wealth.

Cheers!

Kukutente23:

What are the apples and what are the oranges?
You're only looking at volume in a bubble
That volume has a value that it's measured against
If it were not so, all those companies that left wouldn't. Imagine P&G trippling its income in six months. You think they will leave Nigeria?

Is P and G listed on the Exchange. Where is the bubble?.

Have you even looked at the fundamentals of the listed entities driving the activities on the Exchange.

So if a company decides to keep a short USD position on their balance sheet and there is devaluation, The entire country should suffer for it?

P and G is also exiting Kenya


Continue to see bad everywhere in thr country while people are silently creating generational wealth
I rest my case

Kukutente23:

IF you make.... have they? If they did, they won't have 472bn loss don't you think

Stop mixing apples and oranges

Kukutente23:

N1 in Jan 2023 is less than N1 in Jan 2024. For every N1 you put in 2023, you need to make 4 times of it to retain the same market value in 2024.

So if I make 10x that amount haven't I retained market value?

Please answer me!

Realtruth2023:


This is for internal consumption. OPEC rules don't apply here.

Lies Oga.

You people keep demonstrating ignorance.

Nnpc has joint venture partnership with several IOCs to explore crude. Crude explored in Nigeria whether for local or international has to be sold at opec pricing otherwise we will be sanctioned.

I think Seun needs to start banning people that display wanton levels of ignorance so we can bring some level of santity to this forum.

Realtruth2023:


I feel for you. Why would Dangote buy feedstock at international price? That is the first problem, if he signed a supply agreement with NNPC to supply feedstock from their allotment for local production. Because that is where the issue lies.

Nigeria is a member of Opec and bound by their rules. Including international pricing

Secondly the supply is payment for the equity stake of nnpc in Dang refinery

Educate yourself

justtoodark:


bring down price for you....??😂😂

well,if you are ready to pay more than those around you....

do you realy think if ghanaians pay more for dangote fuel you will get it cheaper in nigeria....

better you nigerians get used to payin international average price for fuel than dreamin....
dangote took hugh loans to build that refinery....na you will pay the loans back for him....??

Leave them. They can pay 7x for fake bottles of Azul but can't pay 6k for a bag of cement.

The makers of Azul only release about 100 bottles per year. Yet Nigerians consume about 2k-3k bottles monthly. Where they are getting their own Azul from beats my imagination

Kukutente23:

Hmmm
Ignorance
Go back and check again those companies that made a combined loss of 472bn due to forex and see if they are on SE or not.
Ignorance
Bliss 😊

Stop mixing apples and oranges

Those companies are manufacturing entities carrying short dollar position on their balance which has been written off now.

It's like a bank writing off a bad loan which has crystallised against their P and L. Which is a one off activity.

How does that affect the price of stocks doing very well? There is no correlation whatsoever.

The losses are from their operations which will only affect their own share price for a period. Its even a good time to buy those kind of shares especially if the company has a strong and robust retained earning reserves.


Back to the question. How does dollar affect my buy and sell strategy of transcorp at 1naira in Jan 2023 and 10 naira in Jan 2024? Is there any dollar involved in the entire value chain of the transactions.? Did I speak with aboki to change currency for me for this trades to happen? Did I apply for fx from CBN? Please explain how and don't avoid the question

The level of ignorance and wanton display of it on NL is mind boggling

ednut1:
Gains that were wiped out by exchange losses 🤣

Key board analysts

Exchange loss would only be relevant here if you Brought in dollar to buy the shares.
The way y'all reason sometimes amazes me.

The colonial masters really did a good job brainwashing us as a collective

LegendHero:


I am not blaming people for being broke, it is usually not in my character.

But my stomach turn when you guys only want to project bad side about Nigeria at every given opportunity. This thread is about how the Nigeria stock market perform greatly.

Then one of you came to start crying that companies are running out of Nigeria, leaving the main topic.

Then I told him that if he continues to depend on government everytime, he will remain stagnant as we’ve always have poor and rich people in Nigeria.

Then you suddenly came to center yourself and bring issue of USA. Then now gaslighting me about brokeshaming you.

Who tell you that everyone in USA is richer than their Nigeria counterpart? You sabi wetin I dey do for Naija before?

God bless you. Gsk and Procter and Gamble didnt leave Nigeria alone, they left other African countries.

You will be amazed at the number of Chinese and Indian business setting up in Nigeria .

The steel industry has been taken over quietly and gradually by the Indians.
Chinese are quietly entering into the manufacturing space. Yet some key board analysts ate here making noise.

The stock market created alot of Billionaires last year and is set to do same this year.

Most of the banking stocks even at their current prices ate undervalued.

God bless Nigeria

BloomingDale:
I just pity anyone putting money in there.

Haha. You are missing out. Continue

LandMann:


It's like you're cursed.

How can you defend dangote and the monopolistic and nepotistic favours he enjoys?

How has the monopoly and nepotism enjoyed by dangote benefitted the masses and brought development to Nigeria?

Cement is a classic example. Dangote used his monopoly and nepotism to wipe out competition to the point were Nigerians now pay over 6k for a bag of cement that shouldn't sell for more than 3k.

Dangote ensured the likes of Ibeto Cement never grow his business through backdoor dirty court cases. And he's been doing it to other competitors.

Who suffers in all this? The masses.

So let me ask you again, are you cursed?

I pray God heal you from your bias.

How is Dangote a monopoly?Do you even know what a monopoly is?

In the pasta business there are over 15-20 variants of pasta in the market producing locally. This is even exclusive of the imported pasta.

In cement, there is BUA,Lafarge, Ibeto etc

In the sugar and salt there are over 10 manufacturers excluding the imported ones.

To say he has monopoly is like comparing him to Nepa and Nitel and Nipost of those days that were the only providers of service in their space.

How has Dangote stopped Ibeto? Do he stop Ibeto from building Cement factory. Ibeto choose the easy model of importing which will make quick revenue but unsustainable in the long run a d subject to a plethora of externalities that even him Ibeto can't control e g FX availability or scarcity of it.

Price competition is a very common strategy hence one manufacturers or seller can decide to reduce price on a product to gain market share and volumes.

Try and desist from your hatred for him

The man is the largest employer of Labour in Nigeria outside of govt.

How do you know that cement shouldn't cost more than 3k. Which production and pricing model do you have to verify and authenticate this. Please share let's see. You people just sit and try anyhow


His refinery started work yesterday. Choke on this

skj1377:
Nothing goes on forever. Dangote is wicked and as such his empire will eventually collapse.

Oga rest!

As usual key board analysis!

Kano is a key political pillar for any govt in power and APC not having kano in their favour at federal level would have been a disaster. Removing Abba would automatically put Kano in the opposition amd make the state a NNPP strong hold.

They just played thr classic move of chess here. The main target here is Kwankwaso who caused some discomfort for APC in the last presidential elections especially in Kano. No worries Gawuna will get some juicy contracts and maybe a political or ambassadorial appointment.

After all Abba paid PBAT a personal visit in Lagos during the Christmas holiday.

Tzar:
I currently work in the aviation and aerospace industry.

I have been in this industry for over 10years.

OkSir.


Guess what the refinery has started working.

LyfeJennings:


U might be right but I hope U know Geregu is undervalued

Please off the mic. Don't tell the keyboard analysts on NL know the secret. Allow them to continue with the analysis while boys keeping stacking cheddar steady on the NGX

Ashawoman82:
Tony is 3 billion $ rich bro.

Not exactly