₦airaland Forum

That was why it was so easy for Africans to be enslaved and then colonised.

Fear fear.

The government should continue to intensify the fight against bandits and terrorists.

But no one should be in any doubt that this is a fight the Nigerian government cant easily win.

If it was that easy, Mr Jonathan, and Mr Buhari's governments would have defeated them.

Angelfrost:
We?!! Lol...!

Tinubu might yet be presiding over one the most divided nations, actually more divided than when Buhari was in office.

At least, Buhari even had the entire North rallying behind him... Jagaban can't even Unite the South.


It's such cracks that America is already exploiting.

I am scratching my head to see how the US can exploit any cracks in Nigeria.

Someone even commented about them influencing 2027 elections.

How please?

They will tell us to vote Mr Atiku, from the same part of the country they claim are killing Christians? Or order Northerners to vote Mr Obi?

Or dictate to INEC what results to announce?

Can someone tell me what I am missing.

The US under Mr Biden left Afghanistan in a hurry after several years of unsuccessful attempts to defeat islamists in the country.

In previous years, Russia spent I think 2 decades in Afghanistan fighting and lost thousands of men doing so. It too left the country with its tail between it legs.

My point is dispersed and scattered banditry, terrorism,and in Nigeria's case, mixed with cattle rustling, illegal mining, and farmer - herder insurgency are very difficult to defeat.

Niger State alone is the size of many countries in Europe. And then there are other huge states across the North where the Nigerian government machinery is simply not present in adequate numbers, if any. That has been the case since independence.

If you put the entire Nigerian army in Niger state alone, they will be grounded there, like the US and Russia were in Afghanistan, and still not completely eradicate banditry and terrorism in that State.

While the army is grounded in Niger, how about Benue, Bornu, Kaduna, Sokoto and several other states.

It is a complex situation.

The army is trying, but Nigeria simply doesn't have the number of military personnel to cover every where.

kolente:
The headline of this thread is highly sensational and quite misleading .

The US Dollar is deliberately being devalued by President Donald Trump against major international currencies to encourage the exports of American manufactured goods thus creating jobs for Americans as such the appreciation of the Naira.

Secondly, As we approach the "Detty December" season, Nigerians living in diaspora and also Tourist are sending hard currency into the country for real estate and hospitality purpose for the festivities as such the surge in dollar inflow and naira appreciation.

You are behind the curve.

Your narrative is not backed by data.

The Nigerian economy is improving and is not as wedded to the US economy and the American government's dollar policy as it used to.

The naira even barely reacts to international crude oil price these days - at least not as much as it used to do.

Detty December is not as consequential for the naira as you make it.

slyzy:
So now that the naira is floated (no artificial backup of naira) and subsidy is also removed, where is the proceeds going to that Tinubu keeps borrowing on monthly basis? The money Tinubu has borrowed within two years is more than what Buhari borrowed for eight years and it goes on. What's happening?

As the naira rises in value, the need for borrowing will reduce.

Economics is not a precise science where 1 + 1 always equal 2.

In a funny way, borrowing has indirectly actually contributed to the rise in the naira, though much less so than the reduction in imports.

1. Nigeria is able to borrow as much as it is doing because the international financial institutions rate Mr Tinubu's economic reforms. The World Bank is not a fool. They don't willingly lend to countries that will not be able to pay back. Under the last government, these institutions and other governments were reluctant to lend to Nigeria because they did not have confidence in our economy. Now they do, and contrary to the noise from opposition and part of the media, the current government has not borrowed too much, relative to the size of our economy.

2. By borrowing, at a cheap rate, this government has been able to reduce the depletion of the foreign reserves. This, in turn has given local and international investors some confidence in the naira. If the foreign reserve was $23 billion, instead of the current level of $43 billion, naira would be hovering around N1800 or worse and be very unstable. Would you have preferred that to the government borrowing?

3. If a country needs to rapidly develop its infrastructure,like Nigeria desperately needs to, and doesn't have the money, then borrowing for that purpose is not a bad thing. I don't know which part of the country you are based in, but in my part of the country there are several gigantic road construction going on. I hope it is the same where you are.

Yes, you're right to be concerned about politicians piling on debt for future generations. I am too. However, it does appear on balance that the current loans are for good purposes.

Loans are not always a bad thing.

Mr Dangote's companies probably take more loans than any other companies in Nigeria, but they are also the most prosperous.

With politicians, you can never be sure about their motives, but I have a good feeling about Mr Tinubu and I believe he is the most competent leader Nigeria has had in 65 years of independence. Not perfect, but very good, especially with the economy.

Paramount01:
Why
did you think so?; don't forget dangote refinary is now or board

I know.

It's just my suspicion that the CBN Governor and the Minister of Finance will be praying for a steady, and controlled increase in the value of the naira as opposed to a sudden exponential increase.

In motoring terms, N1000 by December is the equivalent of driving 240 km per hour on the Lagos-Ibadan express way.

It may feel and sound good, but most reasonable drivers don't do so, for a reason. They drive at a slower and steady pace so that if there is a need to, they have sufficient time to apply the brakes.

At 240 km per hour, you'll not have sufficient time to apply the breaks, and even if you do, it would likely be ineffective.

Economists generally prefer slow and steady.

hassinho707:
Very good. We are expecting the naira to appreciate more. It should get to 1,000 naira before the end of December

That's unrealistic, nor is it necessarily a good thing. Such super fast appreciation may create new pockets of instability in the economy.

Naira reaching N1000 by December will be a nightmare for the CBN and the Ministry of Finance. Both will prefer a slow and steady rise.

Managing an economy is a delicate game a chess. For every positive development in one part of the economy (e.g currency) there is a potential negative effect elsewhere in the economy.

So while naira reaching N1000 by December looks good on paper, it will reverse most of the gains we have made in the last 18 months when we started exporting more and importing less. It will also reverse the ongoing efforts to produce more of what we need here in Nigeria.

If Naira hits N1000 by December, imported goods will become significantly cheaper next year, and the country will go back to importing more of everything. Yes, the man on the street will be happier but, long term, the economy will become worse and more import-dependent.

The biggest beneficiary of a rapid, uncontrolled rise of the naira will be China where we import most things from. Over time, our own local industries will die a slow death. We will enjoy cheaper goods prices but our future children will have no jobs as our industries will be hollowed out over time. The dominant economic activity then will be trading - not of goods manufactured here, but of goods from China. We will basically become an economic colony of China

So,it is better for naira appreciation to happen at a slow and steady pace to give the Ministry of Finance and the CBN time to make necessary policy changes.

I suspect the CBN will probably prefer naira not to reach N1000 to a dollar until May be late 2026, though I don't think the CBN will be able to fully control the timing of naira's appreciation. Somewhere around N1350 and N1400 by December will be my idea of steady as you go.

Be rest assured that the CBN will be buying dollars furiously if its data shows an impending destabilising naira gains. Buying the dollar effectively means supporting the dollar against the naira in order to moderate naira gains. That's similar to what happened a few weeks ago when the whole of South Africa supported and prayed for Nigeria to beat Benin Republic in a world cup qualifying match. There are times when the best option is to support your enemy if doing so will boost your own situation.

So don't be surprised by the idea of the CBN supporting the dollar against the naira. That is part of the job of the CBN. Support the naira if there is a need to, and buy (support) the dollar (enemy) if there is a need to.

Also, I am yet to see any data that supports the claim that Lagos has 25 million people.

According to this electricity statistics, the state has fewer electricity customers than Oyo.

Even if one allows for the higher population density per house in Lagos, the lower number of electricity customers doesn't support the claim that there are over 25m people in Lagos.

The usually relatively low number of voter turn outs during elections also undermine the 25m population claim.

Oyo is a massive State.

How come Lagos, Kano etc appear quite low.

Kano,Kaduna, and Oyo are very similar in average per capita income levels, yet according this electricity data Oyo has nearly 4 times more electricity customers than Kano.

Yet, according to Nigeria's abracadabra population statistics Kano is more populated than Oyo and was given more local governments than Oyo

The level of injustice perpetrated by past military governments in this country is serious.

This electricity statistics is even more reliable that the number of sim cards registered per state since one individual can have multiple sims.

If you are from far away Ondo or Ekiti and you enter a government office in Lagos, as long as you can speak yoruba or mix it with English, nobody asks if you are from Ikorodu or isale eko.

If per chance your conversation moves in that direction and you say you are from Abeokuta, Akure, or Ibadan, you will not be treated any different. There is even a chance you will be greeted more cheerfully as awon 'ara Ibadan', ' ara Ondo' etc followed jokingly by 'Ki le mu wa fun wa' (what did you bring for us).

Everyone in the SW looks to Lagos as a common property, even those who have never visited the state. Make no mistake, they will travel down to defend Lagos if the time ever comes.

Lagos is to the SW what London is to England, or Paris to France. Full stop.

Breaker001:
You deserve to be an adviser to the President. You are thinking straight and well 😎

I would like to help the President, as I genuinely believe he means well but some of the people around him are not up to the job.

For example, his communication team is not very good. I read some of their press releases and communications in the media, and I just shake my head.

So I don't think I will last a month if I work in that Presidential environment.

Sorry to say, but some Nigerians are too difficult to work with.

They can't do, but they won't let those who can, do.

I'm happy to observe them from afar, though frustrated about the poor messaging.

tnerro1:
Shouldn’t he have gone back to the council of state who are his superiors in this matter to ask them to revoke their earlier approval and grant a new one, lawyers in the house, educate us oo

The Council of State is just an advisory 'feel good' committee with no power. If the Council was powerful how come it didn't even draw the attention of the President to the undeserving characters on the initial list.

People just meet at the Council to meet and greet old friends they haven't seen for a while, drink tea, and nod at everything the President says.

The Council is just a talking shop, and certainly not above the President.

After the Nigerian Constitution, the Office of the President sits above every human, Committee, or Council within the territory of Nigeria.

And despite everything we were thought in Government or Civics in secondary school ie, that the Executive, Judiciary, and Legislature are equal, in practice the Office of the President wields far more power that anyone or any institution within the 4 corners of this country.

The Chief of Staff may or may not have been directly involved in compiling the original list of those to be pardoned.

However, that list could not get to the President's desk without passing through the office of the Chief of Staff.

An effective Chief of Staff would have scrutinised each and every name on the list to ensure there was no name on the list that may cause his Oga embarrassment.

Did Mr Gbajabiamila scrutinise the list before taking it to the President. If he did, and didn't pick up the undeserving names on the list, at best he is guilty of incompetence, at worse he was grossly negligent with the result that his actions or inactions have brought the office of the President into disrepute.

In some organisations, bringing the office of the Chairman or Managing Director into disrepute is a sackable offence.

I don't think a busy Nigerian President will seat down and be going through each name on a list to decide who is pardoned or not. A President cannot directly perform every task himself. It is physically impossible.

I suspect the initial list was compiled by very senior aides who allowed themselves to be influenced by external forces.

The President would have been right to trust and assume that the senior aides he entrusted with the task would take all the precautions in the world to ensure that only suitably qualified prisoners made the list presented to him.

The aides clearly did a terrible job.

We saw several other instances in the past where names of people recommended for appointments by the President were substituted with completely different names by senior aides.

The Chief of Staff must do better at following up and overseeing these assignments to protect his boss from these embarrassments.

Anyway, there was even allegations that the Chief of Staff may have had a hand in substituting prospective appointees' names.

The President needs to consider whether the current Chief of Staff is a good fit for the role, or whether a new person is required to do a better job.

I don't think a busy Nigerian President will seat down and be going through each name on a list to decide who is pardoned or not. A President cannot directly perform every task himself. It is physically impossible.

I suspect the list was compiled by very senior aides who allowed themselves to be influenced by external forces.

The President would have been right to trust and assume that the senior aides involved would take all the precautions in the world to ensure that only suitably qualified prisoners made the list presented to him.

The aides clearly did a terrible job.

We saw several other instances where names of people recommended for appointments by the President were substituted with completely different names by senior aides.

The Chief of Staff must do better at following up and overseeing these assignments to protect his boss from these embarrassments.

Anyway, there was even allegations that the Chief of Staff may have had a hand in substituting prospective appointees' names.

The President needs to consider whether the current Chief of Staff is a good fit for the role, or whether a new person is required.

tuoyoojo:
Even with the high fuel price they are still diverting fuel

Fuel is still cheaper in Nigeria than in neighbouring countries, so diverting it illegally to those countries is still profitable.

Lol

PDP - one day, one problem.

You want to hold a national convention to elect party officers, yet you make forms available only to the few people you have predetermined to declare as winners at the convention.

How bizarre. No court will allow this.

Is it that PDP have no lawyers to advise them

Petrol imports must continue.

Competition is the only reason petrol price is where is is currently.

Without imports, price per litre will be higher.

Toruibestate:
Stop fooling around.
Are they living on Yoruba land or in Ondo State created less than 40 years ago?
Better grow up.



The space occupied by these Ondo, Edo, Delta Ijaws is far larger than 2 South East States put together.

I have told you my thoughts.

You keep fighting for what you want. That's fine by me.

You are not the one that will draw the map o.

I understand you guys may be trying to capture every Ijay group in Edo and Ondo state, but I believe the final may of any new state will not look like the ziz zag map you drew up there.

Why would Ondo State allow this sort of carve out with a part of the state nearly encycled - just look at those 2 pink Ijaw areas you carved out in Ondo state.

That's a security risk for the Ondo people living in that space. Would you want to be surrounded on nearly all sides like that? Unless the Ondo government is stupid, they will not allow this carve out.

Also, you can't carve out new states with the sole intention of putting every village, every harmlet occupied by a tribe in the new state. In the final analysis, there will still be some Ijaw places in Ondo state. I am not familiar with the population distribution in Edo and Delta, but I suspect there would still be some Ijaws left in those states after the state creation.

Excellent.

There is nothing quite like proof of success.

The alumni appears strong.

I am not usually in favour of government direct intervention in private businesses, but this is the sort of establishment a state government can key into.

If I was Ondo or Osun state Governor I would be talking to this company and do everything possible to encourage them to site and replicate this in my State. Subsidise their rent, subsidise the students fees, give them direct ongoing access to at least the Secretary of State or even better, the Governor so progress and assistance is monitored.

A lot of software work can now be done from anywhere, so if a college of this quality is in Abia, Kaduna etc, there is a good chance that many of its graduates may not need to run to Lagos for employment.

That'll be a plus for those states.

I like that.

This guy has been taking big risks and delivering the best residential buildings in Nigeria year after year without problems.

The sudden naira devaluation in 2023 caught most unawares, and it wrecked havoc with property developers in particular.

Many developers were wiped out and lost everything.

He was pulled in by the vicious and powerful tide of devaluation that swept away several players in the property sector but he seems to still be alive, swimming with all his has in him, and fighting to make it to the shores.

I hope he survives and bounces back.

He is a true trail blazer.

Governments around the world don't like being seen to succumb to this kind of pressure.

The time to plead for Mr Kanu's release is after the completion of his court case assuming the outcome is against him.

Let the case conclude first. The court may even decide he was not guilty of any of the charges and discharge him.

What is the obsession with railways.

Railways will not magically make Nigeria more prosperous than other means of transport.

India has one of the largest railway network in the world, yet it is still one of the poorest countries.

While intra city rail in some of Nigeria's largest city will help, only a rail line linking Lagos with Abuja, Kano, and Kaduna will make sense at this point, but there is even no guarantee it would be viable.

Most of the busiest inter state highways in Nigeria are not even up to 40% full, so why are some people obsessed with building railways that will be permanently unprofitable.

brain54:
You are not wrong...

But we do have the potential to be richer because of our available natural and human resources which we probably have tapped less than 10% or at most 20% into.

This is also wrong.

There is no where in the world where 'available human resources consisting of about half of a population that can't read or right' makes any country rich.

If it was by population, India would be the richest country in the world. In reality, it is still a very poor country.

Pakistan and Bangladesh are similar population as Nigeria, they are poor too.

Yet, Switzerland, Norway, Holland, all very small countries are some of the richest countries in the world.

When you have a population where almost half cannot read or write, that's over 100 million people. In todays world, the lack of education of such a large component of the Nigerian population will be a major drag on economic progress.

That said, I think once the new tax law comes into effect, the revenue (and therefore the budget) narrative of Nigeria will start charging for the better.

dalass:
Even if my mom is 100 years old. She's never gonna let anyone keep any money safe for her. She's the only person designated to keep money safe!

I will put cash or phone in my pocket, my mum will tell me owo yi maa jabo. Ti si nu daadaa.

When I say mummy, don't worry it can't fall off, she will say, ok just push the cash inside the pocket more.

Me too I go just put hand for pocket as if I am pushing. Just to give her peace.

[quote author=iamjavadem post=137157060]Don't forget that AI hallucinates and will also share info shared with it whether true or false. Fact checking is more accurate on matters like this. Note I have not said information shared by grok here is false.

Ai is also very compliant. You can always ask it questions in ways that makes it agree with your position.

Grok in particular is very prone like that. Chatgpt and Gemini are also prone but to a lesser extent.

When I pose a question to ai, I always add that I do not want it to agree with me and that it should be 100% frank and that I am able to deal with rejection

That's my key to getting a better response.

You can't make it up. Unbelievable.

God forgive me, but the one place I am most conscious of holding on tight to my phone is when I am in Church.

Anybody can walk into a Church for a service with no questions asked, which is good. But that also means strangers can attend a service, steal phones, and disappear.

Whenever I am at any event, even if everyone is in suit and tie, I hold on tightly to my phone.

Awo is a legend.

In Yoruba land, the name Oduduwa resonates across ages and times.

I stand to be corrected, but after that, the only other name that follows is Awolowo.

When you are reminded of his government's accomplishments in Western Nigeria then, it sends shivers down your spine particularly when you compare him to current SW state Governors with all the money coming to their states and the little they achieve and celebrate.

Mr Tinubu is the great politician of his era. A brilliant and methodical operator and planner, he stands heads and shoulders above his contemporaries but he is a few steps below Awo the performer and intellectual.

Awo's achievements leave you in 'wonderment'.

Recently, a potential client came to me and was very angry that a state government had sued him for back taxes. He said he would ignore the court case and that there was nothing the government could do to him.

He said he had been to a lawyer and the lawyer was rubbish.

I allowed him to vent properly, and then when he stopped, I looked at him for a full 15 seconds or so.

He was confused...and said, ehen, 'can you advise me?'.

I looked at him for another few seconds before saying, whatever you do in life sir, if a government is on your matter, do not ignore the government.

He said - my brother, is that true? I said yes. I looked at him for another 10 seconds without saying a word before explaining a few other things to him.

He thanked me and said nobody had ever spoken to him so calmly and that he felt a lot better

Despite his appreciation, I already observed that he was not the type of client I wanted to work with.
So I referred him to another colleague a not far away from my office. That colleague called me later to thank me but said but, but, but...the man is this and that. I encouraged him to please help him.

Moral of the story: Do not ignore a government notice of any kind.