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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 9:53am On Aug 05, 2025

The return of my money supercedes the return on my money! cool

3 Likes

Politics › Re: Nigeria House In Deteriorating Condition In US, Staff Owed Months’ Salaries -OAN by EDUECO(m): 9:25am On Aug 05, 2025

Nigeria government even carry their corruption and mediocrity go USA? grin

2 Likes 2 Shares

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 9:38pm On Aug 03, 2025

Valthegreat:
On a serious note @ymcy and @Aj8 do not deserve that tag at all. They are very valuable members of this group who give all they know for free without holding anything back. Please withdraw their names from the call out, we don't want them to feel bad.

You don't mean it? grin

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 9:36pm On Aug 03, 2025

Joyful365:
OandO will need additional or around ₦12 trillion+ inflow of equity from shareholders at its current ₦53 to reach a share price of ₦900. This doesn't look likely in the next 7 years.

Prophet has malaria!

Na mosquito cause am! cheesy

2 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 8:48pm On Aug 03, 2025

purity2all:
You don't just throw accusations like that based on assumptions. @ymcy and @ aje are valuable members of this forum. Calling them out on the basis you did is totally wrong.

Another one from the email cell group! grin

Valuable in marketing the stocks they're about to sell?
cool

Una think na only una wise?

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 8:29pm On Aug 03, 2025

SonofElElyonRet:
Wild unfounded allegations. Type responsibly and not childishly

You think you can gaslight me?
cheesy

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 8:24pm On Aug 03, 2025

9free:
Lol.......For more jokes, text NSEMPA to 111

NSEMPA na really for jokes!

Why would someone profess that value investors are buying O&O Yahooze Nigeria Ltd. if not that the fellow is joking? cheesy

A company that the shareholder's funds is negative and this same company has humongous debt. angry

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 7:20pm On Aug 03, 2025

pluto09:
There is need for us to exercise restraint in throwing accusations around.
Yes, we have people with ulterior motive around here but those two you quoted are not in that category .

Alright Pluto Presido cool

I talk am, dem email gangs done dey come out from their hole small small. cheesy

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 7:18pm On Aug 03, 2025

SonofElElyonRet:
You have no evidence of this. Not nice to attack people's reputation without hard evidence

You're probably a part of this email group? cool

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 6:39pm On Aug 03, 2025

SonofElElyonRet:
Wetin concern you with their private correspondence, Mr "Shorboryorkay"?

You no hear say na the email correspondence people dey plan how dem go take pump and dump stocks of mediocre companies?

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 6:04pm On Aug 03, 2025

SonofElElyonRet:
Prophet no rely on prophecy again. Una don put am under pressure. Him don dey shalaye with workings

Him analysis be like paralysis! grin

Prophet say the value of Oando na between 700 to 800 Naira? I sure say prophet done high. shocked

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 5:17pm On Aug 03, 2025

Streetinvestor2:
You won't understand. I knew emails existed but start suspecting since this yr that this people could have transformed to watsup group. The way some apologies or say they are still in a particular stock when they feel they must have said something wrong. The way they call for team support, validation and give likes.Then you must not say anything against thr audios even when they speak from two side of thr mouth. Then they come out with similar sentence .
Bros if you no shine eyes again for this thread they go chop you maga oh.Play the game with them using long spoon. This place walahi is the only office thr ogas have oh.leave all those audio claims. I be street and igbo man join.Go to markets dominated by igbos.The audio importers they always be 10x to the real importers. Person go carry you enter shop sell you monkey hand making you believe he owns the shop.Na few they get true shop many na guy men way wan chop you maga.This thread has become main market onitsha oh

See 2 members of the email ga.ng grin

Make we start to dey expose them here.

Wetin una want discuss wey una no fit discuss fo here ,if not be monkey hunting?

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 12:11pm On Aug 03, 2025

ProphetUtuocha:
Value investors
Are accumulating Oando
While folks panic-sale

Based on a comprehensive analysis of Oando PLC's financial health, valuation metrics, growth prospects, and risk factors using the latest available data (as of August 2025), here is an evaluation of its suitability for value investors:

### 📉 **1. Financial Health: Significant Concerns**
- **Negative Shareholder Equity**: Oando reports **negative book value of -₦305.88 billion** (H1 2025), with liabilities (₦7.07 trillion) exceeding assets (₦6.76 trillion) . This results in a problematic **price-to-book ratio of -2.9x** (vs. sector average of 1.1x) .
- **High Debt Burden**: Total debt includes a $375 million reserve-based lending facility. While debt restructuring is underway, the leverage remains extreme (**debt-to-equity ratio of -1,044%**) .
- **Profitability Pressures**: H1 2025 revenue fell 15% YoY to ₦1.72 trillion, and gross profit declined 28% due to reduced trading activity and weaker oil prices .

### 📊 **2. Valuation Metrics: Mixed Signals**
- **Earnings Strength**: H1 2025 EPS surged to ₦5 (from a ₦4 loss in H1 2024). Annualized EPS of ₦10 implies a forward P/E of **5.3x**—well below peers (CONOIL: 98.5x, Sector Avg: 43.5x) .
- **Market Pricing vs. Fair Value**:
- Current price: ₦53.10 (as of Aug 3, 2025) .
- SimplyWall.st estimates intrinsic value at ₦57 (7% undervalued) .
- Investing.com models suggest ₦55–₦60 fair value (3–13% upside) .
- **Low Price/Sales Ratio**: 0.2x vs. sector average of 1.1x, indicating potential undervaluation relative to revenue .

### 🚀 **3. Growth Catalysts: Operational Strengths**
- **Production Surge**: Upstream output jumped 63% YoY to 37,012 boepd, driven by NAOC asset integration and operational improvements .
- **Strategic Diversification**: Expanding into LNG, metals trading, and clean energy (e.g., solar module assembly, EV buses) to offset PMS import declines .
- **Reserve Expansion**: NAOC acquisition boosted recoverable reserves to 983 million boe, potentially generating $11 billion in future cash flows .

### ⚠️ **4. Key Risks for Value Investors**
- **Balance Sheet Instability**: Negative equity and high liabilities could trigger dilution or restructuring failures .
- **Regulatory/Litigation Risks**: Ongoing delisting disputes with minority shareholders may create overhangs .
- **Market Volatility**: 52-week range of ₦26–₦98.40 highlights extreme price swings (+146% YoY but -11.6% weekly) .
- **Sector Headwinds**: Dangote Refinery competition reduced PMS imports, pressuring trading revenue .

### 💎 **Conclusion: Cautious Opportunity for Risk-Tolerant Value Investors**
Oando presents a **high-risk, high-reward profile**:
- ✅ **Potential Buy Case**: If debt restructuring succeeds (planned for Q3 2025) and production growth sustains, the stock could reach ₦60 (13% upside). Its low P/E and operational turnaround align with deep-value strategies .
- ❌ **Avoid Case**: Traditional value investors should steer clear due to negative equity, erratic profitability, and leverage. The absence of dividends exacerbates these concerns .

**Recommendation**: Only suitable for investors with **high risk tolerance** and a conviction in management's ability to execute restructuring. Monitor Q3 2025 debt resolution outcomes and production targets (40,000 boepd) closely before committing .

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 12:10pm On Aug 03, 2025

ProphetUtuocha:
Value investors
Are accumulating Oando
While folks panic-sale

Oando is for gamblers aka hope investors; there is no value in Oando. grin

2 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 11:54am On Aug 03, 2025

Based on a comprehensive analysis of Oando PLC's financial statements, market positioning, and industry benchmarks, the estimated fair value range in August 2025 is **₦55–₦60 per share**. This assessment integrates asset-based, equity-based, liability-based, and earnings-based valuations using data from the company's H1 2025 results and comparable metrics.

### 📊 1. **Asset-Based Valuation (Net Asset Value Approach)**
- **Total Assets**: ₦6.76 trillion (as of 30 June 2025) .
- **Total Liabilities**: ₦7.07 trillion .
- **Net Equity**: **-₦305.88 billion** (attributable to shareholders), translating to **negative book value per share** .
- **Key Adjustments**:
- Recent NAOC asset consolidation (₦44 billion capex in H1 2025) .
- Upward revaluation potential from Angola's Block KON 13 operatorship and lithium/gold assets .
- **Limitation**: Negative equity complicates traditional NAV models, but strategic asset growth may unlock future value.

### 💰 2. **Equity-Based Valuation (Market Multiples)**
- **Market Capitalization**: ₦774.72 billion .
- **Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio**: -2.9x (vs. sector average of 1.1x), reflecting market skepticism about negative equity .
- **Peer Comparison**:
- Oando trades at a P/E of 3.4x, significantly below peers like CONOIL (98.5x) and TOTAL (58.8x) .
- Discount attributed to debt concerns and Nigeria's macroeconomic volatility .

### ⚖️ 3. **Liability-Adjusted Valuation**
- **Debt Overhang**: High liabilities (₦7.07 trillion) include a $375 million Reserve-Based Lending facility .
- **Mitigating Factors**:
- Capital restructuring initiatives (equity raise/debt conversions) planned for Q3 2025 .
- ₦12.97 billion net finance income in H1 2025 from liability management .
- **Risk**: Without successful deleveraging, liabilities could erode equity value further.

### 📈 4. **Earnings-Based Valuation (EPS Focus)**
- **H1 2025 EPS**: ₦5 (vs. ₦4 loss in H1 2024) .
- **Annualized EPS**: ₦10 (assuming linear growth).
- **P/E Application**:
- **Current P/E**: 3.4x .
- **Fair Value Range**: ₦34/share (₦10 EPS × 3.4x).
- **Growth Catalysts**:
- 63% YoY production growth (37,012 boepd) .
- Trading diversification into LNG/metals to offset PMS decline .

### 🔍 5. **Synthesis of Fair Value (August 2025)**
The conflicting valuations (negative NAV vs. strong earnings momentum) are reconciled below:

| **Valuation Method** | **Key Inputs** | **Output (₦/share)** |
|----------------------|----------------|----------------------|
| **Net Asset Value** | Adjusted for NAOC assets | Negative |
| **Market Multiples** | Peer P/E average: 43.5x | ₦34 (conservative) |
| **Growth Premium** | 72% production growth; Angola expansion | +₦21–₦26 |
| **Target Range** | EPS growth + strategic premium | **₦55–₦60** |

### ⚠️ 6. **Key Risks & Catalysts**
- **Downside Risks**:
- Litigation over delisting/minority shareholders .
- Refined product trading headwinds from Dangote Refinery .
- **Upside Catalysts**:
- Full NAOC integration and drilling programs (target: 40,000 boepd) .
- Lithium/gold mining investments (production decision by Q3 2025) .

### 💎 Conclusion
Oando's fair value of **₦55–₦60 per share** balances its **operational strengths** (production growth, diversification) against **financial weaknesses** (negative equity, debt). This represents a **40–50% upside** from the current ₦53.10 price , driven by earnings recovery and asset monetization. Investors should monitor the Q3 2025 capital restructuring outcomes and commodity price trends closely.

The conservative price of Oando should be around ₦30.

But,I can't even buy it for ₦5 because Oando has a big debt.

2 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 10:32am On Aug 03, 2025

Based on a **fundamental analysis** of FBN Holdings Plc (First Bank Nigeria's parent company) using asset, equity, liability, and earnings data (projected for 2025), here's a *theoretical* fair value estimate for **August 2025**:

**Key Assumptions & Methodology:**

1. **Data Source:** Relies on FBNH's latest reported results (H1 2024 likely available by Aug 2025, FY 2024 audited results, and management guidance/projections for 2025).
2. **Valuation Models:**
* **Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio:** Primarily based on **Shareholders' Equity** (Assets - Liabilities). Adjusted for factors like Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio and Return on Equity (ROE).
* **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio:** Based on projected **Earnings Per Share (EPS)** for 2025.
* **Dividend Discount Model (DDM):** Considers projected dividends per share and cost of equity (less emphasized here, but part of holistic view).
3. **Projections for 2025 (Illustrative - Requires Actual Data):**
* **Shareholders' Equity:** ₦1.65 - ₦1.75 Trillion (Moderate growth from FY 2024).
* **Total Assets:** ₦12.5 - ₦13.2 Trillion.
* **NPL Ratio:** ~5.0% (Continued improvement, but above pre-COVID levels).
* **ROE:** 18% - 22% (Improving trend towards historical norms).
* **EPS (2025 Projected):** ₦5.80 - ₦6.50 (Reflecting moderate loan book growth, stable NIMs, lower impairment charges).
* **Shares Outstanding:** ~35.9 Billion.
4. **Peer Comparison:** Compared to major Nigerian banks (Zenith, GTCO, UBA, Access) on P/B and P/E metrics. FBNH historically trades at a discount due to past governance/asset quality issues, but this is narrowing.
5. **Macro Factors:** Assumes relative stability in Nigeria's FX market, inflation moderating slightly, and no major policy shocks impacting banking significantly by Aug 2025.

**Estimated Fair Value Range (as of August 2025):**

* **P/B Approach:**
* Projected Book Value per Share (BVPS): ₦1,650B / 35.9B = ₦45.96 - ₦1,750B / 35.9B = ₦48.75
* **Fair P/B Multiple:** 0.65x - 0.80x (Reflecting improved performance but still a slight discount to Tier-1 peers averaging ~0.9x-1.2x).
* **Fair Value Range (P/B):** ₦45.96 * 0.65 = **₦29.87** to ₦48.75 * 0.80 = **₦39.00**

* **P/E Approach:**
* Projected EPS: ₦5.80 - ₦6.50
* **Fair P/E Multiple:** 5.5x - 7.0x (Reflecting Nigerian market risk and banking sector dynamics, compared to peer range of ~5x-8x).
* **Fair Value Range (P/E):** ₦5.80 * 5.5 = **₦31.90** to ₦6.50 * 7.0 = **₦45.50**

**Synthesized Fair Value Estimate:**

* **Lower Bound:** ₦30.00
* **Mid-Point:** ₦35.00 - ₦37.00
* **Upper Bound:** ₦42.00

**Key Value Drivers & Risks:**

* **Positives:** Sustained improvement in **asset quality** (lower NPLs), strong **equity base**, improving **ROE**, resilient **earnings generation**, dominant retail franchise.
* **Negatives/Risks:** **Naira devaluation** (impacts FX liabilities & capital ratios), **inflationary pressures** (operating costs), **regulatory changes** (CRR, Loan-to-Deposit ratios), **competition**, **execution risk** on digital transformation, potential for **governance concerns** resurfacing.

**Conclusion:**

Based on projected **assets, equity, liabilities, and earnings per share** for August 2025, a reasonable **fair value estimate** for FBN Holdings Plc (FBNH) would be in the range of **₦35.00 to ₦37.00 per share**.

**Crucial Disclaimer:**

* **This is NOT investment advice.** This is a theoretical model based on projections and assumptions.
* **Actual 2025 results will differ.** Market sentiment, unforeseen events, and actual financial performance will determine the real price.
* **Conduct your own research (DYOR):** Consult FBNH's official financial reports, investor presentations, and reliable financial news sources before making any investment decisions.
* **Forward-Looking Statements:** All projections involve significant uncertainty.

To get the *actual* fair value assessment in August 2025, you would need to analyze FBNH's H1 2025 results (released around July/Aug 2025) and updated market consensus forecasts.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 8:19pm On Aug 01, 2025

Agbalowomeri:
Where una dey see this money

Na from excess remuneration or inflated cost of doing business! cool

Na where man dey work him dey chop grin

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 7:19pm On Aug 01, 2025

Agbalowomeri:
You dey worry yasef. Wale and co dey chop una margin Lol

He dey over chop through absurd cost of doing business.

The dude and im gang na retired yahozee men . cheesy

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 7:07pm On Aug 01, 2025

GeeKudi:
Ah! You're just going to turn the Ai to a lazy bot

AI has come to stay;life is now easier with it. cool

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 7:05pm On Aug 01, 2025

chimex38:
Bankrupt?
If fittint happen soon even if they keep declaring loss.
More like the Too Big to fail FUGAZ..if not much more Impossible.
Don't play.

I know the company cannot go bankrupt; however,the company is a corruption cesspit.

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 4:27pm On Aug 01, 2025

crownprince2017:
What about the bonus share they are distributing, wouldn't you still value it more because of that.

Bonus lanje.....

It is like a ponzi,you never know when the bubble will burst.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 3:38pm On Aug 01, 2025

DeRuggedProff:
I asked chatGpt the downside potential. Hear its response: Alright 😅 — here we go:

At ₦53/share, with fair value around ₦5…

👉 The downside is roughly 90%.

That’s like buying a goat for ₦53k and finding out in the market it’s actually a ₦5k skinny chicken 🐐➡️🐓.

In short: if this price collapses, wallets go from Big Man Energy 💼💰 to Pure Water Seller Starter Pack 🍼💦 in one move!

The loss the management always declare goes to them as the reward for their deception.If the company goes bankrupt,the management has nothing to lose

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 3:32pm On Aug 01, 2025

DeRuggedProff:
I asked chatGpt the downside potential. Hear its response: Alright 😅 — here we go:

At ₦53/share, with fair value around ₦5…

👉 The downside is roughly 90%.

That’s like buying a goat for ₦53k and finding out in the market it’s actually a ₦5k skinny chicken 🐐➡️🐓.

In short: if this price collapses, wallets go from Big Man Energy 💼💰 to Pure Water Seller Starter Pack 🍼💦 in one move!

AI even tried for giving it a fair value of ₦5; I cannot buy this company even at 5 Kobo.

It is 99% certain that this company has never made a loss in the real sense;but all the management has been doing is to cook the accounts to make it seem like the company has been making losses. cool

The invented loss goes to the corrupt management team as the reward for their deceptive bookkeeping.

The management lacks integrity.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 2:16pm On Aug 01, 2025

Let me do this for the JIJO folks; FCMB is about to start a journey to the next destination. grin

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 2:12pm On Aug 01, 2025

O & O Yahozee Nig. Ltd. grin

In 2035, it will start paying dividends to the shellholders. cheesy

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 11:40am On Aug 01, 2025

Locotrader:
Wow but N2+ naira is not negotiable.

Can I shock you more

Loco bought 1m units of Royalex this morning at 1.55

E shock you?

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 11:39am On Aug 01, 2025

Locotrader:
Na so some people who are scared of Loco go throwway their Royalex this morning thinking Loco is selling.
Well,I want to announce to you we are heading to full bid and N2+ is not negotiable

This dude is confirmed retired yahoz.ee gan.gster! grin

You're gaming the p.igs and pig.lets? cool

3 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 11:37am On Aug 01, 2025

The piggery business is all about slau.ght.ering the p.igs and pigl.ets! grin

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 11:33am On Aug 01, 2025

jonnysessy:
LOCOTRADER, LOCOMARKETER & LOCOINVESTOR Rolayalex is no longer going up o.

Loco has jumped out of the rickety bus. angry

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 11:32am On Aug 01, 2025

crownprince2017:
I'm expecting our he don't cast master, Mr integrity alias elalekpus eyan audio to come and tell us his views on oando result.

Educo, I hope you are listening.

God no go shame us.

The management is not an efficient one. sad

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 9:32am On Aug 01, 2025

GeeKudi:
Yes. H1 not really bad but the Q2 is disturbing. What could make cost of sales overshoot revenue? What sort of inefficiency is that?

You can only get mediocre performance from a mediocre/corrupt management. grin

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 9:28am On Aug 01, 2025

From the Oando result,you can see that Oando's liabilty is so big when compared to its asset. sad

That is why I always go for best managed companies because I don't have time to waste with mediocre companies. cool

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