₦airaland Forum

Based on a comprehensive analysis of Oando PLC's financial statements, market positioning, and industry benchmarks, the estimated fair value range in August 2025 is **₦55–₦60 per share**. This assessment integrates asset-based, equity-based, liability-based, and earnings-based valuations using data from the company's H1 2025 results and comparable metrics.

### 📊 1. **Asset-Based Valuation (Net Asset Value Approach)**
- **Total Assets**: ₦6.76 trillion (as of 30 June 2025) .
- **Total Liabilities**: ₦7.07 trillion .
- **Net Equity**: **-₦305.88 billion** (attributable to shareholders), translating to **negative book value per share** .
- **Key Adjustments**:
- Recent NAOC asset consolidation (₦44 billion capex in H1 2025) .
- Upward revaluation potential from Angola's Block KON 13 operatorship and lithium/gold assets .
- **Limitation**: Negative equity complicates traditional NAV models, but strategic asset growth may unlock future value.

### 💰 2. **Equity-Based Valuation (Market Multiples)**
- **Market Capitalization**: ₦774.72 billion .
- **Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio**: -2.9x (vs. sector average of 1.1x), reflecting market skepticism about negative equity .
- **Peer Comparison**:
- Oando trades at a P/E of 3.4x, significantly below peers like CONOIL (98.5x) and TOTAL (58.8x) .
- Discount attributed to debt concerns and Nigeria's macroeconomic volatility .

### ⚖️ 3. **Liability-Adjusted Valuation**
- **Debt Overhang**: High liabilities (₦7.07 trillion) include a $375 million Reserve-Based Lending facility .
- **Mitigating Factors**:
- Capital restructuring initiatives (equity raise/debt conversions) planned for Q3 2025 .
- ₦12.97 billion net finance income in H1 2025 from liability management .
- **Risk**: Without successful deleveraging, liabilities could erode equity value further.

### 📈 4. **Earnings-Based Valuation (EPS Focus)**
- **H1 2025 EPS**: ₦5 (vs. ₦4 loss in H1 2024) .
- **Annualized EPS**: ₦10 (assuming linear growth).
- **P/E Application**:
- **Current P/E**: 3.4x .
- **Fair Value Range**: ₦34/share (₦10 EPS × 3.4x).
- **Growth Catalysts**:
- 63% YoY production growth (37,012 boepd) .
- Trading diversification into LNG/metals to offset PMS decline .

### 🔍 5. **Synthesis of Fair Value (August 2025)**
The conflicting valuations (negative NAV vs. strong earnings momentum) are reconciled below:

| **Valuation Method** | **Key Inputs** | **Output (₦/share)** |
|----------------------|----------------|----------------------|
| **Net Asset Value** | Adjusted for NAOC assets | Negative |
| **Market Multiples** | Peer P/E average: 43.5x | ₦34 (conservative) |
| **Growth Premium** | 72% production growth; Angola expansion | +₦21–₦26 |
| **Target Range** | EPS growth + strategic premium | **₦55–₦60** |

### ⚠️ 6. **Key Risks & Catalysts**
- **Downside Risks**:
- Litigation over delisting/minority shareholders .
- Refined product trading headwinds from Dangote Refinery .
- **Upside Catalysts**:
- Full NAOC integration and drilling programs (target: 40,000 boepd) .
- Lithium/gold mining investments (production decision by Q3 2025) .

### 💎 Conclusion
Oando's fair value of **₦55–₦60 per share** balances its **operational strengths** (production growth, diversification) against **financial weaknesses** (negative equity, debt). This represents a **40–50% upside** from the current ₦53.10 price , driven by earnings recovery and asset monetization. Investors should monitor the Q3 2025 capital restructuring outcomes and commodity price trends closely.

The conservative price of Oando should be around ₦30.

But,I can't even buy it for ₦5 because Oando has a big debt.

Based on a **fundamental analysis** of FBN Holdings Plc (First Bank Nigeria's parent company) using asset, equity, liability, and earnings data (projected for 2025), here's a *theoretical* fair value estimate for **August 2025**:

**Key Assumptions & Methodology:**

1. **Data Source:** Relies on FBNH's latest reported results (H1 2024 likely available by Aug 2025, FY 2024 audited results, and management guidance/projections for 2025).
2. **Valuation Models:**
* **Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio:** Primarily based on **Shareholders' Equity** (Assets - Liabilities). Adjusted for factors like Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio and Return on Equity (ROE).
* **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio:** Based on projected **Earnings Per Share (EPS)** for 2025.
* **Dividend Discount Model (DDM):** Considers projected dividends per share and cost of equity (less emphasized here, but part of holistic view).
3. **Projections for 2025 (Illustrative - Requires Actual Data):**
* **Shareholders' Equity:** ₦1.65 - ₦1.75 Trillion (Moderate growth from FY 2024).
* **Total Assets:** ₦12.5 - ₦13.2 Trillion.
* **NPL Ratio:** ~5.0% (Continued improvement, but above pre-COVID levels).
* **ROE:** 18% - 22% (Improving trend towards historical norms).
* **EPS (2025 Projected):** ₦5.80 - ₦6.50 (Reflecting moderate loan book growth, stable NIMs, lower impairment charges).
* **Shares Outstanding:** ~35.9 Billion.
4. **Peer Comparison:** Compared to major Nigerian banks (Zenith, GTCO, UBA, Access) on P/B and P/E metrics. FBNH historically trades at a discount due to past governance/asset quality issues, but this is narrowing.
5. **Macro Factors:** Assumes relative stability in Nigeria's FX market, inflation moderating slightly, and no major policy shocks impacting banking significantly by Aug 2025.

**Estimated Fair Value Range (as of August 2025):**

* **P/B Approach:**
* Projected Book Value per Share (BVPS): ₦1,650B / 35.9B = ₦45.96 - ₦1,750B / 35.9B = ₦48.75
* **Fair P/B Multiple:** 0.65x - 0.80x (Reflecting improved performance but still a slight discount to Tier-1 peers averaging ~0.9x-1.2x).
* **Fair Value Range (P/B):** ₦45.96 * 0.65 = **₦29.87** to ₦48.75 * 0.80 = **₦39.00**

* **P/E Approach:**
* Projected EPS: ₦5.80 - ₦6.50
* **Fair P/E Multiple:** 5.5x - 7.0x (Reflecting Nigerian market risk and banking sector dynamics, compared to peer range of ~5x-8x).
* **Fair Value Range (P/E):** ₦5.80 * 5.5 = **₦31.90** to ₦6.50 * 7.0 = **₦45.50**

**Synthesized Fair Value Estimate:**

* **Lower Bound:** ₦30.00
* **Mid-Point:** ₦35.00 - ₦37.00
* **Upper Bound:** ₦42.00

**Key Value Drivers & Risks:**

* **Positives:** Sustained improvement in **asset quality** (lower NPLs), strong **equity base**, improving **ROE**, resilient **earnings generation**, dominant retail franchise.
* **Negatives/Risks:** **Naira devaluation** (impacts FX liabilities & capital ratios), **inflationary pressures** (operating costs), **regulatory changes** (CRR, Loan-to-Deposit ratios), **competition**, **execution risk** on digital transformation, potential for **governance concerns** resurfacing.

**Conclusion:**

Based on projected **assets, equity, liabilities, and earnings per share** for August 2025, a reasonable **fair value estimate** for FBN Holdings Plc (FBNH) would be in the range of **₦35.00 to ₦37.00 per share**.

**Crucial Disclaimer:**

* **This is NOT investment advice.** This is a theoretical model based on projections and assumptions.
* **Actual 2025 results will differ.** Market sentiment, unforeseen events, and actual financial performance will determine the real price.
* **Conduct your own research (DYOR):** Consult FBNH's official financial reports, investor presentations, and reliable financial news sources before making any investment decisions.
* **Forward-Looking Statements:** All projections involve significant uncertainty.

To get the *actual* fair value assessment in August 2025, you would need to analyze FBNH's H1 2025 results (released around July/Aug 2025) and updated market consensus forecasts.

Agbalowomeri:
Where una dey see this money

Na from excess remuneration or inflated cost of doing business!

Na where man dey work him dey chop

Agbalowomeri:
You dey worry yasef. Wale and co dey chop una margin Lol

He dey over chop through absurd cost of doing business.

The dude and im gang na retired yahozee men .

GeeKudi:
Ah! You're just going to turn the Ai to a lazy bot

AI has come to stay;life is now easier with it.

chimex38:
Bankrupt?
If fittint happen soon even if they keep declaring loss.
More like the Too Big to fail FUGAZ..if not much more Impossible.
Don't play.

I know the company cannot go bankrupt; however,the company is a corruption cesspit.

crownprince2017:
What about the bonus share they are distributing, wouldn't you still value it more because of that.


Bonus lanje.....

It is like a ponzi,you never know when the bubble will burst.

DeRuggedProff:
I asked chatGpt the downside potential. Hear its response: Alright 😅 — here we go:

At ₦53/share, with fair value around ₦5…

👉 The downside is roughly 90%.

That’s like buying a goat for ₦53k and finding out in the market it’s actually a ₦5k skinny chicken 🐐➡️🐓.

In short: if this price collapses, wallets go from Big Man Energy 💼💰 to Pure Water Seller Starter Pack 🍼💦 in one move!

The loss the management always declare goes to them as the reward for their deception.If the company goes bankrupt,the management has nothing to lose

DeRuggedProff:
I asked chatGpt the downside potential. Hear its response: Alright 😅 — here we go:

At ₦53/share, with fair value around ₦5…

👉 The downside is roughly 90%.

That’s like buying a goat for ₦53k and finding out in the market it’s actually a ₦5k skinny chicken 🐐➡️🐓.

In short: if this price collapses, wallets go from Big Man Energy 💼💰 to Pure Water Seller Starter Pack 🍼💦 in one move!

AI even tried for giving it a fair value of ₦5; I cannot buy this company even at 5 Kobo.

It is 99% certain that this company has never made a loss in the real sense;but all the management has been doing is to cook the accounts to make it seem like the company has been making losses.

The invented loss goes to the corrupt management team as the reward for their deceptive bookkeeping.

The management lacks integrity.

Let me do this for the JIJO folks; FCMB is about to start a journey to the next destination.

O & O Yahozee Nig. Ltd.

In 2035, it will start paying dividends to the shellholders.

Locotrader:
Na so some people who are scared of Loco go throwway their Royalex this morning thinking Loco is selling.
Well,I want to announce to you we are heading to full bid and N2+ is not negotiable

This dude is confirmed retired yahoz.ee gan.gster!

You're gaming the p.igs and pig.lets?

The piggery business is all about slau.ght.ering the p.igs and pigl.ets!

jonnysessy:
LOCOTRADER, LOCOMARKETER & LOCOINVESTOR Rolayalex is no longer going up o.

Loco has jumped out of the rickety bus.

crownprince2017:
I'm expecting our he don't cast master, Mr integrity alias elalekpus eyan audio to come and tell us his views on oando result.

Educo, I hope you are listening.


God no go shame us.

The management is not an efficient one.

GeeKudi:
Yes. H1 not really bad but the Q2 is disturbing. What could make cost of sales overshoot revenue? What sort of inefficiency is that?

You can only get mediocre performance from a mediocre/corrupt management.

From the Oando result,you can see that Oando's liabilty is so big when compared to its asset.

That is why I always go for best managed companies because I don't have time to waste with mediocre companies.

📄 Document Title: OANDO PLC – QUARTER 2 – FINANCIAL STATEMENT FOR 2025
📅 Period Covered: 6 months ended 30 June 2025
🔗 View Full Report (PDF)


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🔹 H1 2025 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

✅ Revenue

₦799.43 billion

+67.1% increase from ₦478.45 billion in H1 2024


✅ Gross Profit

₦132.16 billion

+38% from ₦95.77 billion in H1 2024


✅ Operating Profit

₦88.01 billion

+66% from ₦52.98 billion in H1 2024


✅ Profit Before Tax

₦45.76 billion

vs ₦9.33 billion in H1 2024 (up +390%)


✅ Profit After Tax

₦32.89 billion

vs ₦6.91 billion in H1 2024 (up +376%)


✅ Earnings Per Share (EPS)

₦2.46

Compared to ₦0.52 in H1 2024



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🔸 EXPENSES & COSTS

⚠️ Finance Cost

₦44.43 billion

Slight increase from ₦42.43 billion in H1 2024


⚠️ Administrative Expenses

₦40.8 billion

Up from ₦32.6 billion in the same period last year



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🔸 BALANCE SHEET POSITION (As of 30 June 2025)

Item Amount (₦)

Total Assets 2.14 trillion
Total Liabilities 1.87 trillion
Total Equity 264.4 billion



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🔸 SEGMENT PERFORMANCE

1. Crude Oil and Natural Gas

Revenue: ₦352.3 billion


2. Trading (Refined Petroleum Products)

Revenue: ₦427.6 billion


3. Energy Services & Others

Minor portion of the remaining revenue



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🔸 CASH FLOW HIGHLIGHTS

Net cash from operating activities: Positive

Net cash used in investing activities: Mainly on capex and exploration

Net cash used in financing activities: Interest and debt servicing



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📌 MANAGEMENT COMMENTARY (Summary)

Growth driven by higher trading volumes and improved oil market conditions.

Operational efficiency and cost control contributed to increased margins.

The company continues to restructure its liabilities and optimize working capital.

I already know that FirstHoldCo will pay like 75 to 85 Kobo for 2025 full financial year

SonofElElyonRet:
Everybody just dey market him stock and some people too dey demarket other people's.. I no name anybody ooo

But you know say I no dey market rotten tomatoes
.

SAK:
September? Too far ! The result will be sleeping at CBN for more than one month ? They ought to have release unaudited results for our perusal/review,I hope they will not come back and tell us stories and blaming CBN for not approving dividend.

Interim dividend of at least 1 ₦aira is certain.

Agbalowomeri:
Na now dem just dey carry report go CBN

It will be out before September 2025

ACCESSCORP half year dividend is almost here!

It looks like the PDF link you shared is the Notice of Approval of the 2025 Half-Year (HY) Audited Financial Statements by Access Holdings Plc for the period ended June 30, 2025. Here's what’s publicly disclosed (via Marketscreener/Access Bank release on July 31, 2025):


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📌 Key Points – 2025 HY Audited Results Notification

On Wednesday, July 30, 2025, the Board of Access Holdings Plc approved the interim audited consolidated and separate financial statements for the half-year ended June 30, 2025 .

The approval includes the decision to pay an interim dividend, subject to Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) approval .

Access Holdings will publish the results once CBN approval is obtained.

A closed period restricting trading by insiders is in effect until 24 hours after results are released to the public .

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Listings-site/corporate-disclosure-site/Documents/ACCESS_HOLDINGS_PLC_NOTIFICATION_OF_APPROVAL_OF_2025_HY_AUDITED_FS_.pdf

zendi:
Including First Bank.

And there are other gems in other sectors too.

The management of First Bank doesn't care about investors' prosperity.

The management's major aim is the cooking of accounts in order to embe.zzle funds.

60 Kobo as the dividend for 2024 financial year is a misnomer for FirstHoldCo.

zendi:
Good news !

Plus, the sun will rise at dawn tomorrow, giving birth to a new day, and we shall christen it Friday.

Senior Monkey Hunter Edueco, alias Lekos.

Those companies I mentioned are gold standard in equity investment in the Nigerian Stock Exchange.

kintus:
If you like go put body.....them go use exit...you go turn bag holder.

You're gradually decoding their game

yMcy56:
Na my LearnAfrica dem put for full offer like this?
People dey para o...
We no dey shake, no be today we dey this market... 😊

This is one of the disadvantage of small capitalization company.

The company is even a seasonal company.

Everything about First Bank is stress.

If you want to get debit or credit card is stress.

If you want to start using their banking app is stress.

WEMA is the opposite of First Bank; getting debit/credit cards is stress free.And if you want to start using the ALAT app is also stress free.

Customers are the kings/queens in any business transaction.

Always treat your customers with respect.

If First Bank is not careful,they will end like Union Bank in the next 30 years.

WEMA is doing what First Bank coundn't do.

First Bank is now a corr.uption cesspit.

Fred2020:
What is up with FBN Holdco, please?

Full offer!

It has been gereguralized!