₦airaland Forum

Beaf:
The two bolded blocks are in direct contradiction. But lets leave that for another thread or another time.

Yeah you are right. You were smart enough to get the point I am making there. Not everybody can see that. The thing is that the very nature of Nigeria has placed some stumbling blocks on the path of democracy. Parties will have to learn to deal with that as we grow and mature into true democracy. But we should'nt CRASH the democracy (as Utomi suggested) beacause those problems exist. When we can deal with those glaring problems, then we can discard those processes that affect the democratic process. Anyway, zoning is a party issue and as for PDP, it may be the only formula that can guarantee its continuous survival.

You said four main!!! It is difficult to say, but:

That will be Ribadu. (I also considered the VP). I believe I will make reasonable interest and it will be sustained.

The bank of GEJ would have been a nice try but I do not want a Sanusi to suddenly come and close down my bank!
If I put my money in BB bank, the value of the money will keep depreciating till there is nothing left!

If you had said ANY, then I would have gone for Bank Utomi.

@ danjohn, from the news I am getting, these are what I can say:

1. BB is gaining some momentum in Lagos but has a cieling beyond which it cannot grow due to the effect of religious sentiments.
2. In the rest of SW, the picture is very much the same (PDP and ACN still have a huge share). You heard right that Ribadu is shaky here.
3. ACN is NOT making much headway in the North. The CPC vs PDP battle is dwarfing ACN daily.
4. The north remains BB for the masses and support is growing enough to make PDP worried.
5. The new twist in PDP zoning suggests that the powers of the North (the elite) have agreed to some form of deal with Jonathan with the help of OBJ.
6. PDP has a new strategy which is set to sweep some very important votes in the North to them. (The idea is to dwarf BB support by maximizing their strongholds everywhere in the North. I can only guess that it may be in places like Kano but I do not know the details.)

I say that we should expect surprises in these last few days FROM THE NORTH! There is where the games will be played (or have been played).

software:
@efisher

can Ribadu do it?

Only God knows the answer to this question. I can only base my judgement on the things laid out clearly before me but that is how far I can go. The man has never been president so we do not know. I admire his passion and optimism. I also like the fact that he is rolling with people like Fashola who I am even more confident in. Someone will ask: What about Tinubu? My answer; I do not know the answer to that question either!

*Laughs like Obasanjo after dodging the question*_{Just joking}

PDP has never been challenged like this before. They will never forget 2011. It will teach them several lessons. One of the lessons will be to stick with zoning as long as tribalism and religious differences exist in Nigeria. They will also learn to field only healthy candidates (lesson from Yar'adua).

I also hope the opposition parties have learnt their lessons.

In all, I am happy because, these are signs that democracy is working and should not be crashed as some have suggested. It takes time for the parties to reform and metamorphose into the desired form. Democracy is a slow and steady process that brings sustainable development.

software:
nicely said. But if i may ask, who will you vote for? what do you advice me to vote for?

Unfortunately, that is one question that you will have to answer yourself. I will only advise that you dig deeper into every candidate. Watch the NN24 debate again and hopefully the BON debate if / when it is held. Search through the manifestos and dig into history. Look at the party structures and the achievement of members who make up the party. Make an effort to leave emotions and ethnicity out of it. My guess is if you look deep enough, you will be left with one or two choices (who BTW will also have their flaws). The person may not even be in the best position to win this time. A vote for the right candidate may either put him in the office or encourage him not to give up, knowing that people out there appreciate him.

For me, I will vote for the candidate who has displayed the greatest passion for Nigeria and has a grasp of the issues facing the nation. The candidate who has proven that he respects Nigerians no matter the tribe and religion. The one who believes that there are still good Nigerians out there. The one who has joined himself to a party of proven performers. The one who is not afraid to make a mistake but knows that we can be great by team effort. The one who doesnt believe he is a superhero. The one who has made an effort to study about how to move the country forward. The one who has stepped on toes but still knows how to draw people close. The one who has a political future to protect. This is my own judgement and I know of one person who fits this description. Whether or not he wins, my vote will send a message to him wherever he is.

*At the end of the day what matters is that we move forward as a nation in peace better prepared to take Nigeria to greater heights*

Very bluntly put but valid. Buhari's loss in the North will come from two groups of people. One group includes those who have huge interests in the current party and government. The second group includes those silent ones who neither share the same culture nor have similar religious disposition as the general  and his VP.

Only a formidable opposition can uproot these guys. This election should teach the opposition some invaluable lessons. We better start shopping for the right candidate for 2015 from now as well as build the right political structures to attain the goal of regime change.

@ Software and other people yet to decide, I will advise that you cast your vote where hope is. Remember that hope is not in our past but in the future. We should walk forward and not backwards. Answer the question of who to vote for based on the capacity, vision and tolerance displayed by the candidates. Emotions are temporary feelings. When they wear off, it is vision that will keep you going. Vote wisely.

Check the history records. Our economy took a plunge under his rule. Unemployment and human rights abuse were at the peak. The victims ranged from journalists to political opponents.

@ okooyinbo, valid points you made there. I will advice anyone who is really interested in making the right choice to watch the NN24 debate once again and make up his / her mind about where hope truly is. Is hope in the past or in the future?

Presidential Election 2011 is a done deal even in a free and fair process. He may have known what transpired backstage hence his conclusion. It is not just about rigging.

As a dog returns to his vomit, so a fool returns to his folly.

I admire the emotions behind the BB ticket however, I have always drawn peolple's attention to the realities on ground. I have also looked at those figures and it is clear that BB cannot win even in a free and fair election. We have to remember that the election is not a Buhari vs Jonathan race. It is a PDP vs CPC vs ACN battle. PDP will still sweep a large portion votes in the North simply because of interests. Lots of things have happened in the background and it will take more than emotions to surmount them. That is the nature of politics.

@egift, Sorry not everybody is a PDP supporter. I support neither PDP nor CPC. Unlike many others, I can still see these three things very clearly:

1. PDP has not met our expectations.
2. CPC is a mirage and CANNOT meet our expectations either.
3. Politics is not about emotions. It is all about people and their interests.

I form my opinions based on 1 and 2, but I make my analysis based on 3. My analysis can only be verified after the elections. Until then, I stick with my opinions.

Many more reasons here: https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-626878.0.html

There is no hope in the past, hope is in the future. We should look ahead and not behind. Don't be deceived.

The battle for 2011 has been won before the election! People who know how politics works, know what has happened. Remember that in politics, what sells is INTERESTS. WIIIFM! The play-out of the battle will be very tough and it will be a close call but, there will be no run off. If it is free and fair, I project that the winner will get majority but not more than 55% of total votes. The 25% - 2/3 condition will also be more than satisfied. I hope and pray rigging will be reduced to the barest minimum. I also hope and pray that anyone who indulges in rigging will be caught and punished. It is time for us to get it right.

The election was won today. Those who know politics know what I am talking about. We better start talking about 2015. As for me, I think ACN has to start preparing for an alliance from now because it will be a hot battle between two mega parties. Those who predicted doom for Nigeria in 2015 may have seen this coming. I pray there will be no doom rather, Nigeria will grow stronger.

Also correct. The diversion of public funds for personal reasons. Only I don't know if it is not the same throughout the country.

Some problems are national problems and I cannot judge if those problems are more prevalent in one area compared to the other. The points I listed are the very obvious ones. Other points are up for debate.

Passion. This man has a political future. Let's watch out for him.

Former President Olusegun Obasanjo has said the Peoples Democratic Party has not discarded its controversial zoning policy.
Mr Obasanjo, who spoke at the grand finale of the PDP presidential campaign rally at Eagles Square, Abuja, vowed that as an apostle of principle of zoning Of elective and appointive positions, he would not dump it at this point in the nation's history.

"We are the only party that enshrined federal character in our constitution through zoning and rotation and we should be proud of that. For us and for the foreseeable future, it remains so far," he said. "I am an apostle of federal character under Murtala/Obasanjo administration and I cannot now preach anything different.
"I, on behalf of the BoT, allayed the fears and I promised a public report and to brief the party members about it. What I am saying simply is that federal character, zoning and rotation in our party is alive and kicking."
Describing Mr Jonathan's offer to serve for only one term as a sacrifice, Mr Obasanjo argued that rather than vilify him, he should be encouraged. He said that he does not know who will succeed the president but that he could ‘reasonably' guess where the person will come from.
"I don't know who will be president of Nigeria after Dr Goodluck Jonathan, that is in the hand of God. But with the PDP policy, I can reasonably guess from where, in terms of the section of the constitution, the successor of President Jonathan will come. And no internal democracy or complication will be there to destroy it," he stated.

Full story here:http://234next.com/csp/cms/sites/Next/Home/5685710-146/zoning_is_alive_and_kicking_in.csp

Solomon, my good friend. There is no need to kick against the thorns. There are two polls on the guardian website. One has over 400 votes and the other has over 100 votes. The picture of the poll you posted is the one that has over 100 votes. I think the one with more votes should give a better picture.

You can check the site yourself
Poll 1 (Less voters, created in March 2011): [url]http://guardiannewsngr.com/index.php?option=com_communitypolls&controller=polls&task=viewpoll&id=49%3Apresidential-race&Itemid=653#[/url]

Poll 2 (More voters, created since Dec 2010): [url]http://guardiannewsngr.com/index.php?option=com_communitypolls&controller=polls&task=viewpoll&id=44%3Awho-do-you-think-should-be-nigerias-president-in-2011&Itemid=653[/url]

Both polls really dont count much because we are talking about millions of voters on ground vs a few hundreds online. Most of these online voters may even be outside Nigeria.
I do not like PDP as a party but I know that 2011 is theirs once again. I only pray that GEJ will perform because all that is left till 2015 is HOPE.

This is the picture of the one with over 400 votes:

@ alethia, Check that the sum of projected % of voters for each state should be equal to 100%. I noticed some were more than 100%

@ aletheia, Thanks a mill.

I'll play around it. Well done

As Maradona is to today's football, so Buhari is to today's Nigeria: EXPIRED!

This thread is for every nairalander to showcase what his/her preferred presidential candidate can offer. tell us why we should vote your candidate and not the other. It should include elements from the actual manifesto. Also, previous track record of what your candidate/party has done should be showcased. Pictures will be an added advantage. Feel free to knock-out other candidates but try to give reasons for your points.

The following are suggested issues to be discussed in no particular order:
1. Power
2. Corruption
3. Insecurity
4. Unemployement
5. Education

Who wants to go first?

Seriously, you are right. The word has been bastardized. I think these guys should be using the term "youthful" rather than "youth".

Age limits

The age in which a person is considered a "youth", and thus eligible for special treatment under the law and throughout society varies around the world.

"Youth,  those persons between the ages of 15 and 24 years." - United Nations General Assembly
"Time in a person's life between childhood and adulthood. The term "youth" in general refers to those who are between the ages of 15 to 35." - World Bank.
The Commonwealth Youth Programme works with "young people (aged 15-29)."
"A person,  under 21 years of age." - National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
"People between the ages of 14 and 21." - Wilson School District
"Youth; an individual from 13 through 19 years of age." - Alternative Homes for Youth, Inc
"Youth is defined as any member of society between the ages of 15 and 34" - The Danish Youth Council

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Youth

@ danjohn, once again welldone on your work, I have been having a nice time playing around it.


I tried to tweak things and I discovered that even after stretching assumptions to the limit, a combination of votes from ACN, CPC and ANPP strongholds will not still be enough to topple PDP. Please, have you been able to model any realistic scenario where PDP loses by up to 45% vs 55% and less than 25% votes in 2/3 of states?

Kindly let me know because I am trying to model the possibility of an alliance toppling PDP in 2015. Assuming PDP presents a Northern candidate.

I think whatever the religion is, the key is to be able to separate between politics and personal values. In partisan politics, the game is very tricky and any politician at that level will be caught up in the web of "trying to look good" in the face of everyone. You will always look like a 2-faced person in politics. No escape route. It is very difficult but the bottomline is upholding the common values of fairness, honesty and transparency.

@ Kobo, I really do not see any reason for attacking the poster just yet! He only asked a question and a nice simple answer will not do any harm.

@ 1Naira, thanks.

It is appalling that people can actually place all their hopes on someone who lacks vision and the gusto for change. I have tried to watch out for reasons why the BB ticket may be good and there seems to be none! He has not demonstrated in any way that he can address any issues facing us as a nation. The NN24 debate was what opened my eyes clearly to this fact. That was when I made up my mind that BB is the worst that can happen to us. He had no single plan for power, education and even on his selling point (Corruption). He has simply been riding on "perception". The only point he claims, CANNOT be measured. Even if he has the guts to fight corruption, WHAT IS THE PROCESS? He has not named a strategy! This is democracy remember. You cannot wake up one day and just haul people into jail. The worst part of it all is: WHAT ARE THE STANDARDS AGAINST WHICH CORRUPTION WILL BE MEASURED? What will he do differently from the current EFCC? Will he create EFCD and EFDZ?

Nigerians are tired and we really want change. At the same time, we have become very emotional. It is easy to dissuade us when we are at this point. We will wish we could go back to Buhari, military rule or even colonialism. We have forgotten how it hurt back then. We have forgotten that the world is changing. I Recommend that whoever we decide to vote for right now should have proven capacity, vision, firm grasp of the issues facing the nation, intellect, tolerance etc. These are the qualities we need. Look at men like Sanusi Lamido and Fashola. There is something they have in common. They are performers. Those are the kind of people we should be looking out for. Decide for yourself who among the candidates can still offer us something.

I hope every educated and forward thinking youth begins to see that hope does not lie in our past but in the future. Let us look ahead.

Alj Uche:
would you rather allow someone who dines with ciroma ibb and co to rule you

or  have u heard of buhari meeting those people

I think we should tread carefully here. Do you honestly think anyone who becomes president will not have to be a friend or at least tolerant of these guys? You should know that as the president, you have to tolerate everybody even if you don't like them. Let us not expect that we will ever get a president that will get there and put everybody in jail. It will never happen in democracy. We have passed military rule a long time ago. The best anybody can do is to level charges against them and seek a legal approach to handling these guys. But trust me, it will be a very long battle. That is why I always emphasize on us facing issues rather than all the super-hero moves we think we can pull. Any serious minded president will concentrate on addressing issues facing the populace rather than pursuing shadows.