₦airaland Forum

Deadlytruth:
Taking companies' forecasts seriously is suicidal. I have never seen any forecast in which the company projected a loss for itself.

Hmmmmmmmm

Streetinvestor2:
What could cause this heavy difference for the last quarter based on thr initial projection

Culprits - Inflation

- finance cost of 9.96b from 4.57b prior year
- Admin cost of 19.2b from 15.2b prior year
- Cost of sales rose to 226b to generate 248b compares to 188b to generate 213b revenue prior year.

From the results have checked so far, i think Ikeja Hotel, Japaul and euinesell are stocks that tick my box for jijo for 50-100% profit within short to medium term.

emmaodet:
Total inventory rose to 152b from 74b, that is a 100% and which is 5X of net profit of 27.8b. That is worrisome.
Q4/24 eps shrink to 117k from 616k despite a 16% increase in revenue of 248b from 213.4b.
A meagre net profit of 416m from 248bb revenue - a 0.2% margin compared to 950m from 213b revenue prior year.

Culprits - Inflation

- finance cost of 9.96b from 4.57b prior year
- Admin cost of 19.2b from 15.2b prior year
- Cost of sales rose to 226b to generate 248b compares to 188b to generate 213b revenue prior year.

A 0.2% net margin is not encouraging and means the company may fall into negative any moment. It has no room to absorb shocks or unforeseen circumstances.

The most disheartening about this report is that Total released a Q4/24 forecast of revenue 238b, actual is 248b which is more than the forecasted.
Net profit forecasted is 5.69b, actual is just 399m. A whooping 93% downside.
Forecasted eps of #16.7, actual is #1.17

Rubyjade:
Which company is this?

Total

ositadima1:
My take.

From the table, we can see COS is too high and NP is too low.
Checking the sector, i noticed it is a general problem - Eterna, Cap Oil, Mrs, Conoil

ositadima1:
Lol, sorry bro, my bad. The data covers total financials from 2019 to 2024. I couldn't fit everything, so I summarized the key points. The metrics under 2024 are specific to that year, while the other columns provide a summary of the entire period.

For example, the 52% represents the compounded annual growth of EPS from 2019 to 2024. The MEAN is the average over this time frame, calculated similarly to summing all gross profit margins from 2019–2024 and dividing by total revenue over the same period. Max and Min represent the highest and lowest values within the six years. For instance, in 2024, 88.9% of revenue was spent on the cost of goods and services—the highest percentage in the period—so it appears under Max.

All the droop values for 2024 add up to 100% because they represent the portion of revenue allocated to each business level according to the income statement. I explained this before—I thought you had read my earlier post a few days ago. Thanks.

Okay.

Thanks for the breakdown.
Now i understand it.

ositadima1:
My take.

Can you explain the picture better for me? I didn't get it bro

DeRuggedProf:
Hope some won't think the figure is fenced to protect the 'wonderful' eps....

pluto09:
Keep it up bro.
Your effort is well appreciated.

Thanks brotherly

Deadlytruth:
Same mindset with me. I have an aversion for physical business especially in the Nigerian environment. Since I entered the stock market in 2003 and realized that it is a business which requires only intellectual energy, physical businesses stopped appealing to me.

Exactly bro

Total inventory rose to 152b from 74b, that is a 100% and which is 5X of net profit of 27.8b. That is worrisome.
Q4/24 eps shrink to 117k from 616k despite a 16% increase in revenue of 248b from 213.4b.
A meagre net profit of 416m from 248bb revenue - a 0.2% margin compared to 950m from 213b revenue prior year.

Culprits - Inflation

- finance cost of 9.96b from 4.57b prior year
- Admin cost of 19.2b from 15.2b prior year
- Cost of sales rose to 226b to generate 248b compares to 188b to generate 213b revenue prior year.

A 0.2% net margin is not encouraging and means the company may fall into negative any moment. It has no room to absorb shocks or unforeseen circumstances.

essentialone:
It is different.

Okay

Sunrisepebble:
Interesting, they made a loss in Q4.
That dividend is super though, N80

I don't think they are declaring any dividends.
Where did you get a dividends of #80? i saw #25/share for FY23

Deadlytruth:
I my own opinion, a person truly enlightened on investment would not run away from it just because of a temporary bad experience. Come to think of it; is there really any economic endeavour in life that gives profits all the time without losses at some point at all? Nearly all of us oldies here got burnt in 2008 but we didn't run away because we had a truly enlightened objective of coming to the market which was to create sustainable wealth. Most of those who rushed in and rushed out between 2008 and 2009 came with the mindset that stock investment was a kind of lottery but got disappointed when the events of 2098 proved them wrong.

Is even doing a physical business any better? it is not as easy too.
I know how much have lost in farming - maize, groundnut etc, vegetable oil production factory i closed down 2 years ago (mechanical issues and power frustration etc) and so many more.
I just feel more comfortable and relaxed with bonds, treasury bills, mutual funds and stocks.
I can monitor it from anywhere in the world unlike physical biz where managers will be eating your money and doing virtually nothing

Omooloriredade:
#Musings only

If Oando goes ahead to buy the refinery in the Caribbean or anywhere else, it will be a terrible decision in my opinion. They are not exactly known as an exceptional or efficient management yet. Even if they are, it's still a bad business decision at this stage.

The upstream and power segments remain the cashcows management should focus on while growing other business segments. Margins in refinery operations are thin. Dangote might be able to squeeze a slightly higher margin than Aradel refinery because of economies of scale but it still won't be comparable to upstream business. Refinery business is not as profitable as a lot of people imagine it to be.


The segment reporting is simple and clear enough to buttress my point. Aradel is focusing on the upstream and experienced the highest growth and margins in this segment. It is an open secret. 13,751 bbls/day in a $82.3 per barrel market. Take advantage of the stable and high prices now by channelling your resources to the business segment that offers the best returns. Good company. That production figure is ahead of Oando's FYE 23 and Q3 24 results. How? Not good enough on Oando's part.

Oando just needs to ramp up production. No excuses.

Good observation.
I like this

essentialone:
For more than 4 months, Afrinvest has kept their website suspended and out of use for their clients. A very useless Stockbroking Firm.

Is Afrinvest also Africa Prudential? if yes, then their app is working. Just delete and re-download the app again

ClearFlair:
Countries with so many God-given resources ruled by incompetent and greedy people
Chai!

I think it is the most cursed country in Africa

International Energy Insurance FY24 Unaduted Report -

Revenue of 5.6b from 2.7b FY23
Net income of 1.78b from previous 850m which is a 32% net margin
EPS of 139k from previous 57k
Cash and cash equivalent down to 1.2b from previous 4.4b. This is due to a 3b payment for shares deposit they made to Norrenberger in a private placement worth 5b (remaining 2b)
They have a negative equity of 8.9b due to high Total liability of 24.2b compared to total assets of 15.3b and There is an accumulated losses of -23.3b in equity making total equity negative 8.9b
Digging further, noticed they have a 14.1b loan from Daewoo security ltd reflecting in their liabilities, which they took in 2008 at 0% coupon rate payable in 20 years at a 29% premium on maturity in Jan-2028 with an option of converting it to equity.
Converting the 14.1b loan to equity will adjust the balance sheet to have a positive equity, reducing the liability to 10b and increasing the equity to 5b
The downside is massive dilution of extra 8b shares at current price of 1.73 per share to raise total outstanding shares to 9.3b.
This means with a profit of 1.78b for FY24 with EPS of 178k and OS of 1.28b, diluting OS to 9.3b will drop the EPS to a meagre 19k
negative FCF of 1.1b from previous positive 2.91b.
Maintenance cost paid of 1.16b from previous -472m, reinsurance premium of -1.1b and operating cash payment of -2.15b turned the OFC to negative.
72% of revenue comes from motor insurance = 4.25b while maintenance cost of 1b went for motor insurance.
4.24b revenue is from direct premium - insurance from individuals and companies
86m from inward premium - insurance revenue from other insurance company who use them as reinsurance company
1.2b from unearned premium - insurance contract activated and converted to revenue.
They released a forecasted Q1/25 report with -
Gross premium = 3.88b,
Insurance service result = 1.1b
Net profit = 208m.
Using that as a guide, that will give us eps of 16k with a FY25 eps estimate of 65k using OS of 1.28b.
That will be a whooping 50% downside to Fy24 eps of 139k, which means we may see IEI share price go down by 50% this year ending.

Gd0007:


On an iPhone, you can download an app called Vivid ID. It allows you to take a properly sized passport photo under appropriate lighting. You can save the photo on your phone and reprint a hard copy when needed.

Thanks

Cashmadam:
Ensure the passport is saved as a JPeg. Also, ensure you have good network.

When a message pops up on the screen (can't remember what the message is), just click ok. Don't click cancel.

If it still doesn't work, then it means the picture does not meet the required specification.

Thanks

Nonexisting1:
I miss my money that she took and ran with a 'ready' man for marriage. I'll rather face a lion in a duel than miss her. I've moved on but that money still dey pain me. That was all I had as a young hustler then.

JESHAL007:
Good morning sir @emmaodet,
Happy weekend
Please sir what is your economic advice for a young man starting family in this economy, advice for men whose wives are going to be career oriented, how would it affect the tempo of the relationship, does it come with compromise, does it breed disrespect, what are it's pro and cons

For middle-middle class upward, i will suggest the man to take 100% responsibilities of the house even if the wife is working.
For lower-middle class down to lower class, i will suggest the wives contribute to the family purse albeit 30% max because the men in these categories need to have disposable income to invest, hence need their wives support but it comes with a price or a cost - the man will lose part of his masculine power.
Men in these categories don't have the leverage in the upper class have.
You can't give out money to family or friends without your wife's consent since she is a co-contributor unlike the first group.
You don't have the room to be naughty - having affairs outside because it may lead to immediate divorce. The woman will say she is better off staying alone and feeding herself rather than with you and your excess baggage of cheating. It is not as if the money is enough for the family yet you are wasting it on useless affairs.
Why all women have tendency to cheat, a woman working and paying almost half the bills will be more bold and less worried about the repercussion of cheating - the worst that can happen is to chase her out and heaven will not fall, she will quietly rent a single room and continue her life easily. Nothing really changed much.
You should be ready to share the chores at home - while she is cooking, you are washing plates. You wash the clothes together etc
There are many more but i will stop here

lekefew:
Login to AVITS dashboard and go to support on the menu, create a ticket, select Profile Inquires for the topic , fill the form and upload your new DS-160 form in the attachment section and submit. Wait for 24 hours and your confirmation number will be updated on the appointment, you'll get a response on the ticket letting you know it has been updated. I don't know if the weekend will affect the response time. I did mine yesterday and got a response today.

I asked this question a week ago and nobody replied. I figured it out and I thought to help someone else

Thanks, followed your instructions

JESHAL007:
During our father's generation, women in the 50th percentile of income settled down with men in the 50th percentile of income easily but now, they want to enjoy life, they don't want to suffer when they know statistically majority of them would struggle a lifetime, it's crazy, they do not want average and poor men like their female ancestors who settled down with peasant class

Even those female ancestors, many regretted marrying poor men or men within their class. It was just that hypergamy was put in check during their time with religion and tradition. Now, those institutions are failing.
In one hot argument with my dad, my mum vowed never to allow her daughter marry a teacher or civil servant due to what she passed through suffering with my dad.
My mother-in-law also once said if she was as clever and wiser then like now, she wouldn't have married my father-in-law because then, better men with good jobs and career wanted her but she was naive and followed LOVE.
Have had 2 or 3 women say something similar too.

Kingpele:
Billions upon Billions no clear details of how the Billions is spent....but how can 5billion dollars be generated from a festival...this guys is good at calling billions all the time....as if they use billions swear for them

Nahco

Sunrisepebble:
You are spot on. I ran through the numbers on excel, forecasting around 100-110 again for the stock. Hopefully they pay out a good dividend also

I have added them to my watch list too

Sunrisepebble:
N5.42 EPS for a quarter wow. This is on my buy radar at good entry

Yes, it looks good because the major drawdown on their net profit is ''Loss on remeasurement of foreign currency balances including trade and other receivables, trade and other payables and cash and cash equivalents balances'' which cost 89.4b in FY24 with a net loss of 54.8b
Looking at the economy and expecting a stabilized exchange rate, i don't expect them to have such in their finance cost for the time being.
TTM NL = 49b, EPS = -#22.78 but with a strong Q2 eps of #5.42, i expect them to have a FY25 eps of atleast #10 which i EXPECT but not GUARANTEED to increase the price to #100/share around mid this year.

JESHAL007:
@emmaodet, good evening sir, hope you had a good day, I want to clarify something, are married men receiving sex like mad since they monopolized the pussy in the institution or are they sex starved like majority of single guys out there who are average and struggling since they are bottom 80%, worse they patronise prostitutes who give them the worst of the worst forms of transactional sex, are married men sex starved that they too might opt for prostitutes, are married women weaponizing and hoarding pussy

Hello bro.
The question has a broad answer because it is an individual thing and many married men don't open up due to shame, so they keep it to themselves.
Many married men don't feel comfortable telling friends about their wife's sex life because it's kinda private but from my little observation and knowledge, i will say 5 out 10 married men around me had once complained about their wife's low sex attitudes.
We can say many of these women married their husbands due to financial cover or age not on their side, if given the chance and choice, they would have preferred a richer or more good-looking man, but this is life, we don't always get what we want.
Women will be women; it is up to the man to know how to handle such situation.
My case as an example, i don't beg my wife for sex or clingy. There were times she was forming not interested and wanted me to be simping to get the sex, i just ghosted her as if she never existed in that house. It is up to her to pick herself up and fix herself up and make me happy.
I don't wait for her to do my duties at home to provide, so i don't need to constantly remind her or beg her to do her duty to make her hubby happy. I have low tolerance for bullshits, manipulations or games.
If she had not come begging after 3 days of ghosting her, i would have given her just 2 months grace period after which i would have gone to shop for her replacement sex-wise
If you don't like sex or not really interested in it then stay away from relationships and marriages - e no hard.
I don't wait for anyone to tell me to wake up, go to work, pay school fees, house rent, food etc so i won't be the one forcing a woman to perform her duties
She woke me up midnight disturbed that have been ignoring her for days and i told her plain and blank that have lost interest in her, no point sugar coating it.
She was shocked and started crying and praying for evil ladies distracting me outside to die...wetin be my own, i was just sleeping.
EVER SINCE that time, our sex life CHANGED for better.... i guess a little external competition or threat of replacement helps a lot

missjekyll:
Thanks which bunch?
If it sounds too good to be true it probably is.

If you are swindled,there is nothing,zero ,zilch you can do about it.

I suggest sticking with TB and government bonds. Just a gentle suggestion.

They are safe.
I went to their office at marina, the head office and met the guys working there inside UBA bank headquarter.
Moreover, they have a microfinance branch that uses your mutual funds to give you loans which I collected early this month

sterlingD:
UNIVERSITY PRESS PLC

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42933_UNIVERSITY_PRESS_PLC.-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JANUARY_2025.pdf

Net income of 510m in 9M/24 from a revenue of 3b, a 17% net margin.
Made a loss in their Q3/24 of 172.5m from a revenue of 484m
9M eps of 118k
Point of interest -
The cost of marketing selling and administration of 1.36b from a revenue of 3b is too high. Roughly 50% of the revenue.
A negative trade payable of 901m changed the OFC to negative from a net income of 510m.
Digging further, they have a 526m royalty payable to the authors of the books they have been printing and selling that made the FCF to be negative.
I will do a valuation of the stock later today for full report