₦airaland Forum

emmanuelewumi:
If you want to rollover your loan, make sure you inform the a week before the loan matures

Okay thanks.
Well noted

emmanuelewumi:
I think Emmaodet is intelligent enough, 15% in 6 months is not bad based on what intelligent investors can achieve in the next 6 months.

Yhe beauty of margin loans is that you are not under pressure of making monthly payments, at maturity you can even pay just the interest and rollover the principal for as long as possible

I structure my loan in such a way my mutual fund will pay for it. So i am not worried about the payback.
Also, it is one of the few options convenient for me.
Most banks won't grant me loan because am not eligible for it since i don't work in nigeria and not under the list of accredited companies for employee loans.
I am not a full staff neither rather contractor, so it makes getting bank loans very hard.

emmanuelewumi:
With N30 million you are eligible for about N27 million.

After getting an initial loan of N5 million you can always ask for additional loan provided your collateral can accommodate it.


I used my Eurobond fund to get loan when it N900 to $1.

When the exchange moved to N1300 to $1, I applied for additional loan and I was granted

Thanks very much. Have learnt alot from you

emmanuelewumi:
Haba, you are not new in this business na. Interest rates are per annum.

Which you can always prorate

Hello bro.
Just a question - assuming i have a 30m mutual fund with ucap and have collected 5m loan from ucee but since i am eligible for up to 29m, is it possible maybe after a month to refinance my loan? by getting more loans than the initial 5m from ucee?

Streetinvestor2:
Try confirm well.I think the 30% is for the six months and not annum.

It is 30% per annum and 15% for 6 months

Princkez:
please what's the interest rate

30% per annum

Locotrader:
Plus admin expenses.
Anyway we are in a bull market but never like the stock you invested the money.Transcorp would have been better.

If I know you in person I would have given you that amount at 15% for 12 months duration without extra costs.

It's well sha

Admin charges is 1%. Reason why i was given 990k and 2.475m.
Maybe we will work together in future.

Youngzedd:
What is the interest rate?

30% per annum/15% for 6 months

Got a margin loan of 1m and asset backed loan of 2.5m from Ucee/Ucap seemlessly.
Processing time 3 days and payable in 6 months with an opportunity to rollover.
Bought Nahco 40,000 more units.
@ Oga emmaewunmi .. thanks for the awareness.

HesInMe:
Just curious: What do people see in companies like Chams? Just low valuation?

I will check their financial report out but if am to make a guess, I think they are investing on the growth. Potential growth

Omooloriredade:
I agree insurance penetration and limited bouquet of insurance products continue to be a challenge for the insurance sector. However, I disagree the main challenge is topline growth. Don't get me wrong....it is still a challenge but not the major challenge. If you grow your topline because more Nigerians take up car insurance, do you think it will improve your bottomline? No, (imo), that business is not a profitable one in Naija. I assume everyone should know the reason why.

The key to an insurance company's success (particularly in Naija) is the ability to evolve and diversify. You would still need more capital to do this. There is a blueprint to follow. Custodian, Mansard are already leading the way. A few others are now following by establishing a "holdco" structure and diversifying. You don't have to focus on traditional insurance alone. NAICOM regulation stipulates the portion of your capital that must be reserved for "reinsurance", "reserved in a deposit money bank" and available for investment. A well capitalised insurance company can veer into virtually any profitable businesses (including banking, pension fund administration/custodianship, venture capitalism, fund management etc) provided they follow the regulation including relevant organisational structure.

There are examples of insurance businesses in Nigeria that one can understudy to understand what to do and not do inorder to succeed.

Aiico - Grew premiums massively over the years but struggled with bottomline. That company should not be where it is today.
Custodian - Evolved and diversified and is now the poster child of a well run company for the sector. Aiico was not Custodian's mate once upon a time.
IEI - Started off with a bang. Entered the O&G insurance sector to chop money but they didn't know what hit them there. Fighting for survival now.

Have a look at the results of insurance companies. You will find they make money (margins) from interest and investment income not their core business of insurance. Difficult operating enviroment as many have found. There's still opportunity for growth in traditional insurance space but that is a topic for another day.

#Evolve and diversify so you can thrive!!!

Disclaimer - Just an opinion. I could be wrong.

@ Omooloriredade ..

Look at the attached picture.
You will notice insurance expense and reinsurance are always taking a chunk of the revenue leaving the shareholders with next to nothing.

HesInMe:
If only that were the problem. The main challenge in insurance in Naija is the topline: Industry premiums are not growing fast enough compared to the market potential. People are just not insuring insurable risks. It's hard enough to compel car insurance, talk less of coverage for homes, businesses, life, and health.

So you will have all these companies with all these new shares demanding a return on investment, but the investment opportunities are just not there yet. Which rational investor would buy knowing that?

@ HesinMe

The problem is not the topline rather not reflecting at the bottomline.
Look at Prestige for example -
How can you generate 13.8b and use 14.8b as insurance service expense? Total making loss from their core business.
Most insurance company only pad their EPS and PAT from investment income and not insurance income which is not sustainable on the long run

Offpoint1:
The number 1 is applicable to whole state in Nigeria, Lagos is the only state you can buy all food items in the market by 4am. And workers are already on the road to work by 5am.

Before Lagos, I left home for work by 8:45 and got to work in 10 minutes. Lagos is different ball game, even though the work distance is the same, it took me 2 hours (that's if I leave home before 6am)


Lagos conductor made me lapped a lady with a voluminous azz and I alighted with the hardest erection known to mankind. It wasn't my fault, but biology and whatever brand of perfume she wore. I knew she felt it, I wish we have the abilities to control our serpent salutation, but this guy is triggered by visuals and touches.

emmanuelewumi:
Did you consider the spread between the ROIC of about 70% and the WACC of 20%.



Once there is a spread of 5 and above, Economic value is created

Yes, I agree bro but many companies even have bad ROIC.
Imagine if roic is 30% and wacc is 20%, what is left then? Some sef, their wacc is more than roic

emmanuelewumi:
Please explain EBIT of 30% because I don't understand what you meant

What I mean is earning before interest and taxes.
While a company can decide to be paying back interest owed to lenders back slowly, a 20% wacc and above will always take a chunk before getting to PAT

eziokwunwoko:
Pa Emma, current price, Suprisepebble and emmaodet: Please what are your spreadsheet saying about a Beta Glass Plc.
Abeg I need your wonderful analysis.
I am loyal as you boy

I will go through it for you but give me a week. It takes me 3/4 days to go through a stock financial report.

Streetinvestor2:
I started buying chams at 27kobo.I have seen it touch #3.50 before pull back too.I am certain chams will give me 100%.Nacho may not deliver 100% this yr.i am going into Nacho since chinko people want to collect my wapco.I am buying to gradually to replace it for wapco because of dividend. I saw it below #20 long ago but preferred to accumulate wapco based on the sector it operates .

You have good BE. I wish to be in that class too very soon.
Started trading stocks mid last year but really catching up.
Have spent a fortune on courses and it has helped me avoiding junks stocks.

Olaide1295:
Presco is good, but I’m wary of anyone doing legitimate business and borrowing at 20+% interest rate.
It’s why I’m not buying MTN, Dangote etc. I really should look into the business numbers, because it seems to me like all profit will be paid to lenders.

I think by the time they dilute it with equity, the wacc will drop to probably 15%.
I also don't like a company using too much debt because they will virtually be working for the banks.
How many stocks on NGX sef they declare EBIT of 30% and above sef? And if over 20% will now be going to banks, that means na kasala be that.
Also, many companies have access to special Cbn/government low interest loans just like Vitafoam. The loan is as low as 5%

GeeKudi:
Cornerstone actually have good numbers and I believe, still remains undervalued. The only concern I have with it is the large OS as with almost all the insurance stocks.

I will check them out over the weekend and then come up with a valuation for them

Streetinvestor2:
Nice investment portfolio. I sold some of my ucap today. To rebalance in chams/nacho if I see them within my targeted price. If no way,I move to transcorp plc.My target na mostly 100% in any stock I am buying this yr.when that is achieved I can sell and move to defensive stock for next yr

I will prefer you buy nahco to chams.
I will check chams and transcorp financial reports so as to value them and know how much they should be worth if need to buy but for now, i prefer stocks that i can sleep and relax on and only check once a while.
I don't have the time for daily checking or monitoring stocks movements. I just check my portfolio may twice a month. I am a very busy man

Sunrisepebble:
I don’t have a price target/fair value yet for NAHCO to be honest.
My source has marketed it to me for almost two years now. My first entry was at 44.85 and hoping I can solidify the position well below that level but it doesn’t seem to be slowing down at the moment. Based on watching their facts behind the figures and some analysis that was done here with @emmaodet and pa Emma using the revenue projection of the firm for next five years. I think it’s still a buy. Revenue is indexed to USD but paid in naira and they’ve recently started earning revenue from a new contract with Emirates after they came back to Nigeria which I think should show in Q4 results. I think there’s also a pending court case for them to get concession to manage the international airports

From the analysis of FY 24, the projection was that they could pay a potential N5 dividend which is a 10% yield. Similar to the Tier 1 banks

RE: FBNH, the div yield is too low for me


Looks like a good one to me. But wouldn’t rush to buy it

Nahco is good at current price. I just got a margin loan from ucap to buy more Nahco tomorrow.
Nahco, wapco, gtco, Access, Uba, ucap, Okomu, Presco, Zenith are my long-time stocks in my portfolio.
I am currently rebalancing my portfolio and dropping prestige, probably cornerstone too.
Noticed so many frauds or magomago full insurance sector which i will like to avoid.
I will send Prestige report in the next 1 week here

Streetinvestor2:
Becareful with that moniker. He is wearing a mask.I feel he is valuating monikers for a purpose based on post here.You know naturally we loose guard and make some kind post based on achievement to celebrate. This attracts his kind..

lol

Sunrisepebble:
Anytime I try to reply @emmaodet with my Vitafoam analysis. My post is always removed, not sure why.
I believe there are strong underlying numbers there.
If you look at the normalized earnings per share ie excluding Q2 where they made huge FX losses due to naira devaluation. The Quarter 3 and 4 earnings per share are a lot stronger and I believe if they sustain it then it’s very undervalued. My source also has an insider who says they’re making good money this year.

I forgot to mention Presco in my previous post. A slow mover but will also be looking to add more if or when the price drops. I have the patient capital for what will be a potential #1k stock

I don't know why your messages are disappearing when you mention me too. I have noticed it.
Like i wrote above before, that vita foam revenue will increase due to a new sector/department they have created with a lot of revenue potential - ''They have the rigid foam segment with a significant growth potential and increase in future revenue. So we hope the stock price will keep rising in nearby future''
My concern is the management, they are not running the company efficiently. They are supposed to generate around 15-17% profit for shareholders from the revenue compared to 1% they did this year.
What is the usefulness of future revenue increase it it is not reflecting at the bottom-line

Sunrisepebble:
I took out the poor Q2 performance which was due to FX losses and then annualised the earning using the other three quarters.

I think what you are missing in your analysis is that you're looking at it on a full year basis. The Q2 loss was bad. Look at it on a quarter on quarter basis The earnings per share in the last two quarters individually are almost the same as the full year EPS in the previous financial year

Even if we add the forex loss back = 12.3b and give PAT of around 14b and divide by outstanding shares the FY EPS = #1.1 which is still far low compared to previous years report.
In 2020, Revenue was 23b, net profit 4b. That is 17% net margin compared to 2024 revenue of 82.6b that is about 4X of 2020 and profit of just 1.3b and net margin profit of 1%.
EPS fell from #3+ from 2020 to 2023 to 29 kobo in 2024. That is disaster.
While vitafoam remains a good stock, i just feel it is too expensive for the current price.
My opinion though

Sunrisepebble:
Did you look at the EPS on a QoQ basis? It is growing, Q2 loss is what affected the full year EPS. Otherwise it grew substantially. Normalised EPS is about N7 for the FY. Been trading at a PE of 6-7x based on N3 EPS in the past.

How did you calculate the normalized eps to be #7?
I think the PE will be high now since EPS has dropped alot.
Also consider the Non-Controlling interest of about 60%

Vita Foam FY 2024 Analysis by me.

Q1/2024 PAT is 1,562,602 from Q1/2023 PAT of 1,711,357
Q2/2024 LAT is (7,455,792) from Q2/2023 PAT of 1,354,802.
Q3/2024 PAT is 2,707,428 from Q3/2023 PAT of 585,393
Q4/2024 PAT is 3,393,302 from Q4/2023 PAT of 660,769
6M March/2024 - LAT (5581973) from 6M/2023 PAT of 3,084,498.
9M/2024 LAT is (2,883,946) from 9M/2024 PAT of 3,697,688
FY 2024 PAT = 952,190,000 decreased by a whooping 89% from FY 2023
Admin expenses, Finance Cost the stock foreign exchange loss are major drawdowns to the net income.
EPS of 29k/share doesn't justify the current price of the stock.
They have the rigid foam segment with a significant growth potential and increase in future revenue. So we hope the stock price will keep rising in nearby future.
They company is into varieties of things namely - Mattress, foams, beddings, Duve, Furnitures, car seats, bumpers, oil filters etc
It has a high non-controlling interest as high as 65%. So a meagre 29k eps for FY2024 doesn't justify the current price. It is too high
So a profit of just 359,704,000 out of a possible 952,190,000 is available to vita foam shareholders (1,240,884,000 shares) while 592,486,000 goes to NCI.
Vitafoam has a NM of 1.2%, a big drop from 8.3% previous FY. It means she may likely fall into negative since NM is so low despite increasing revenue.
Cash and cash equivalent big drawdown from 21b to 7b is worrisome but further investigation would be carried out to know what it was used for
Debt of 14b is higher than available cash of 11b compared to FY 2023 of 23b debt and 22b cash on ground.
Depreciation exceeds capital expenditure which means management underinvesting in the company.
It has a very good FCF compared to PAT
Interest Margin is 93% compared to 32% of FY2023 which is way higher than the required 30% max.
EPS growth is very poor and reducing
Capex margin increased from 35% 2023 to 50% FY2024. We require less than 25%. Which means it is getting more capital intensive to run the business.
The company sold foam products increased from 6977,560 in FY 2023 to 79,199,843 FY2024 representing 8.4% increase in product sold.
Furniture and other products increased 5X to 48,370 sold compared to previous year.
In total 7,611,285 products sold in FY2024 compared to 6,987,258 FY2023 which is 8.9% rise in product sold reflecting as 56% rise in revenue for FY2024.
So, a 624,027 increase in product sales representing 8.9% increase in sales results to 56% increase in revenue. Interesting.

WriteerNg:
⚡Ukraine Corruption: In 2024, 13 Rolls-Royce Spectres—priced at $650,000 each—were purchased in Ukraine.

The first vehicle was delivered to MP Vatsak, with additional units reportedly acquired by deputies and government officials. Alarmingly, only 3 of the 13 buyers have traceable official incomes.

Lol.... And this country is in war? Russia is really trying.
Isreal or US or NATO would have leveled the country by now

Lafarge 9M/2024 audited financial report breakdown by me.

Revenue increased by 60%, non operating expense by 328%, from previous year
GM and NM reduced which is mostly due to inflation while OM increased.
SGA reduced from 41.1% to 34.2% which is still above my 30% required but improving.
They are consuming cash alot. Roughly 50% of cash from previous years has been consumed. I guess used in the absence of debt
Inventory has increased by 85%. We need to know why they are having more in store? is it due to low demand?
Payables also increased by 63%. Retained earnings improved by 11%.
Their quick ratio is worrisome degrading from 0.84 to 0.35. i need above 0.7
Current ratio dropped below threshold of 1.0 to 0.96
Overall, i think the balance sheet is deteriorating.
Capex increased by 119%
Capex margin increased from 57% to 87%...this is not good enough because we need it to be below 25 and not increasing.
Further investigation revealed they are constructing a new plant of 76b which means more revenue in future.
It means it is becoming more capital intensive to run the business. Though i will compare it to her pairs in the same sector.
Free cashflow is -111% to -$7,868,780,000 which is also worrisome.
The auditor raised a concern about inventory obsolence for off-spec clinkers - what this mean is that there are some finished products/inventories that are either damaged or low quality that can't be sold or sell at lower priced totaling 20b.
This is due majorly to power fluctuation and most of these products are damaged by weather. i guess the storage area is opened to rain and sun regularly.
In the next AGM, this issue needs to be raised to see how management will reduce such waste so as to increase shareholders net income. 2023 was 15b up now to 20b.
They have done well securing low interest rate loans from govt. cbn intervention at a 5% interest per annum and Effective interest rate of 15.23% - CBN/BOI power and aviation loans,thereby not eating deep into shareholders returns.

RedpillAdviser:
A wife will always be your biggest investment in this world and anyone would be a fool not to dedicate his young years to studying, researching and mastering women. What's wrong with you? You yourself are maybe dedicated to mastering football, or music, or some other craft, but does that mean you've dropped out of school? Does that mean you've abandoned your purpose? Does that mean you've lost focus? So why then do you assume guys who study women have abandoned their purpose? Why is learning how to fucc equal to failure in your book? Why is everyone happy you have a hobby until that hobby is women and suddenly "you'll be a failure in life

ReubenE:
Baby steps

Wait for the resident zombies to come tell you how stampede happened in Bangladesh and another time in Nigeria in 1993, that it is a global occurrence and has nothing to do with Tinubu.

In fact Tinubu is working and Nigerians are seeing the gains that people died from the wild jubilations.
Madness

Modified:

Before I even finished, Reno Omokiri is already saying same thing.
How stampede has happened in: He pointed out that similar tragedies had recently occurred in the United States, South Korea, Israel, and several European countries.

WrriterNg:
The US would never stop or sanction the Saudis from getting Nukes.

The Saudis would just pull out all their investments from the US. Without Saudi investment, the US is done and dusted.

As for Turkey, lmaoo..

Lol
If the Saudis can do it, they would have done that a long time ago.
The sauds won't last a week without US military guarantee.
You think there are nobody grumbling that the sauds have been sitting on the royal chair for ages?
There are many families who are eyeing the seat. Some are dead, some on exile while some in Saudi prison.
Many will gladly call on Iran or Russia to support them to dispose of these overfed royal families.
Also, the royal family is not ready to leave that post too. Their generation will curse them because their grandparents enjoyed the crown, so was their great grands, and current father. So it is in the interest of the current family to enjoy themselves and draw out a plan how their kids and future kids too will by passing the baton to them.
Assad in Syria wanted to sit tight but pushed out, gadaffi in Lybia was pushed out.
So many ME countries are using kings like Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, UAE etc who plan not to leave the sit for life and will do anything to retain the sit even if it warrants isreal wiping off all Gaza, they care less provided their own futures are secured.