₦airaland Forum

GeneralDae:
“ Refineries are commodity businesses — they trade on margins (the “crack spread”) between crude input and refined product output, not on revenue. The right valuation frameworks are EV/EBITDA and EV/capacity, not price-to-sales. Global refineries typically trade at 4–8x EBITDA, occasionally up to 10–12x for best-in-class assets.

Dangote Group revenues have grown from $3.3B to $18B over five years, while EBITDA grew from $1.8B to $2.8B over the same period.  That EBITDA growth is notably thin for such a revenue surge — a classic refinery problem: huge topline, squeezed margins.

The refinery is projected to generate ~$27B in annual revenue at full 650,000 bpd capacity.   At the IPO target valuation of $40–50B, that’s roughly 1.5–2x revenue — which is exactly where a refinery should trade.

At 8x EBITDA on ~$2.8B EBITDA, a fair value is around $22–28B. The current IPO target of $40–50B  is arguably already stretched vs. fundamentals, likely pricing in the expansion to 1.4M bpd and commodity upside”.

INVESTING IN DANGOTE REFINERY IPO VS INVESTING IN OKONMU OIL PLC OR PRESCO PLC

CAVEAT: THIS IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVICE...IT IS JUST ME OFFERING HONEST KNOWLEDGE BASED ENLIGHTENMENT/EDUCATION TO MY FOLLOWERS.

The other day, Femi was all over the news media , regaling us with how he has been begging his friend to allow him have more stakes in the upcoming IPO and private placement offering of 10% his refinery shares and listing on the floor of the NSE ....

Before you get carried away by the mind games of "big men", .. kindly take out time to separate and digest conventional facts, from surreal fictions or unusual comet occurrences/appearances.

PRESCO AND OKONMU ARE PALM OIL PROCESSING AND PRODUCING COMPANIES ...

Over the last 20 years, the average annual ROE...Return on Equity of these listed companies on the floor of the Nigeria Stock Exchange has hovered between 43% to 57% and 35% to 55% respectively[ Please fact check this).

CRUDE OIL REFINERY

The average Return on Investment (ROI) or Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) for independent crude oil refining companies typically sits between 8% and 15% during standard market years.

However, because oil refining is a highly cyclical, capital-intensive, and volatile commodity industry, this average is highly misleading on its own.

Depending on global macroeconomic factors, returns can spike above 35% during structural supply deficits [ JUST LIKE WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING BECAUSE OF THE ONGOING HOSTILITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST BETWEEN ISRAEL/US VS IRAN]

The ROI of Crude oil refining companies generally collapse into low single digits (or negative territory) during capacity gluts or when there are no such unusual global war or hostilities.

Take for instance, the average Return on Equity (ROE) for major listed crude oil refineries globally , such as [Reliance Industries and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited ] generally ranges from 10% to 20%, though it fluctuates significantly depending on global commodity spreads and geopolitical factors ]

Kindly also note that these identified listed Companies even have this average ROI of upto 20%, because they are integrated with upstream crude oil production/petrochemical units.

Kindly note that while fossil fuel and fossil fuel derivatives demands may slow down, as the world evolves, leans towards and pursues more green and cleaner energies sources, the demand for the crude palm oil and palm oil derivatives will continue to rise

Are you aware that currently Indonesia today, is converting its POME- Palm Oil Mass Effluents] into climate friendly aviation fuel production ingredients ?

Before, they manipulate your minds and decisions , just like they did between 2007 to 2009, please think and reason properly

If you have extra change in your pocket and you dont know what to do with it, [ if you are from the South of Nigeria], kindly go to your village, get cheap land and plant palm trees, cocoa or MORINGA OLIFERA TREES, and plant bamboo trees around it as a wall , spaced 20 cm apart[ with castor seeds in between to ward off ruminants ]

As you long as there is security of lives and properties in your community, and you are able to keep off the TERRORISTS, MASQUERADING AS HERDSMEN,.. You will over the years, have massive appreciation of in the values of both your land and BEARER BIOLOGICAL ASSETS [ Moringa, Palm or Cocoa plants], planted there in ..

A word is enough for the wise ...

You can reach us on whats app 08134441140 for probono counseling..

www.sefapcol.com

www.usebazaar.africa

OBIARAERI, Nnaemeka Onyeka, FICA, MIRA

nosa2:
Lets see how long people's long term can get.

The panic is coming

Sell in May

Come back when again??

OsunOriginal:
Please, has anybody received WEMA Bank dividends?

The registrars for this Wema bank must be very slow people

they keep paying one investor every one hour

maybe by next month ending they would have finished paying every one

Asangbekoko:
My dear, why you go dey fight fight fight over small small companies stocks?😁

Its almost like some people here get Triggered over any post about Zichis

make una no allow HBP kpai una o

if you beleive in the stock, just keep buying more as it becomes cheaper...

Thats exactly what i come here to look for everyday

how i can buy Cheaper CUSTODIAN or UACN shares

Make i no do pass my self

KarlTom:
You inherited something from your dad.
You do not want your children to inherit anything from you.

What happened to charity begins at home?
Life sha...

My old man denied himself so many enjoyments

you want me to deny my self all that now? fa fa fa Fowl

As i dey work..i go dey chop wella

ghm:
It is your fault if you raise people who are waiting to inherit things from you, raise them as you grow also.

You will be surprised how 10 year old children are into investments, shares, etc. under their parent's tutelage.

Each of my friends children have portfolios and they will prefer to add money to them than buy expensive clothes, they are both under 15.

The topic is not about having Investment swarvy kids

its about whether you are making money and not eating or enjoying it and just keeping for next of kin...

My late dad left a lot of Assets for us even denying himself so many pleasures and enjoyments to do that ....and he knew that no one of us actually needed them cos we are all doing well in our different professions...

emmanuelewumi:
The old man should have transferred his assets to a Trust. The beneficiaries can only get a certain percentage of the investment income from the assets

whether transfered to Trust or willed to next of kin...na same same

make sure you are eating from your sweat as you make money...

I inherited quite some assets from my late dad and seeing how the man suffered to keep all those assets doesnt make any sence to me...

I will make money and eat it well..all i owe my kids is good education and I have always told them that...anyone waiting to inhereit any thing is wasting his time, cos there wont be any ....anything i cannot chop finish will go to charity St Vincent de Paul

emmanuelewumi:
Don't eat your future, invest in fundamentally sound stocks

If you like dont eat from your sweats

this Next of kins you are looking at....Ndi GenZ..

They will not show any mercy to all these wealth you are keeping for them

pluto09:
It is a season of cash out

Sell in May

come back in september

NGX Directors are showing us the way

KarlTom:
Who is packing VFD?

Once dangote IPO starts and NGX liwuidity is sucked by the IPO..many will hold illiquid shares for many months after

GeeKudi:
The hype don dey dey too much abeg. Na to come over price the thing and sell to us.

It will suck up NGX liquidity and we will see many of our favorites stocks come down to great levels to rebuy them again

Stockpromoter:
Get ready to chase Japaul as you did in March.
Maybe this time,it will excel

If only you would be nice to post your TA charts for all to review...maybe you will get more people jumping on that train with you..

just a suggestion

Agbalowomeri:
They have been scamming with agriculture no be today

where are all those Agro Tech coys that were giving 45% monthly to investors with billboards all over lagos?

emmanuelewumi:
Dangote Cement with a better market history, pedigree, institutional investors etc should sell at a higher multiple na, but Zichis has a higher multiple.

Zichis has a Price Sale ratio of 71 compared to 4.5 by Dangote Cement

Zichis has a PE ratio of 150 compared to 15 by Dangote Cement

Zichis has a Price Book Value ratio of 40 compared to 8 by Dangote Cement

You see this market eh....every body go learn him own hard lessons and get sence finally by force..

I just dey pity these new GenZ investors wey want to make 100% gains in one month like they do in Cryptos...

Everyman is the CEO of his own portfolio...

crownprince2017:
Omo the supply side of access na water, he no dey finish..


Edueco, how this thing want take move to your valuation like this... It seems there is endless water at the back of the fish oooooo...

almost like trading Alts in Cryptos....supply never ends...if e wan end, developers will open one back end aka Team token and supply go full again

God epp Access Shellholders sha

ghm:
I am rebalancing my portfolio to have fewer stocks, I decided to remove some companies that are overlapped in banking and insurance sectors and keep only the leaders (e.g. GTCO, ZIB, AIICO etc.) in the sector. Which of these 11 do you advise I should keep.

1. Africa Prudential
2. ASO Savings
3. Industrial & Medical Gases
4. Legend Internet
5. Regalins
6. Royal Exchange
7. Veritas Kapital
8. Sovereign Trust
9. Fidelity Bank
10. FCMB
11. Sterling Bank

Thanks.

sell All

Oasisblue:
But we have the full year 2025 result already- just not audited.

I only do my analysis with audited results

Oasisblue:
Aradel trading strongly. Peeps may have seen their Q1 result

make dem try see the Full year 2025 results first

Kesta22:
Good day house, I have been following this stock platform to learn and improve in stock market. Anytime someone/novice ask questions, please you people should try and put that person through. One answer can save a lot.
I bought Wapco last week for 344 now it going down to 319.Am already at loss. Is it a good idea it to sell before it goes down further and buy mtn at 815?

when new investors ask me this question..what i usually answer them is....

at the time of your purchase, what was your plan? to trade or to invest?

if you planned to trade, then you must plan your exit before you purchase..as in , time to take profit or time to stop loss...

And if you planned to invest, you must also ask yourself, what time do you buy more when it enters a loss position over time and also your ultimate exit strategy someday...

so lets have your answers to these questions before we know how to advise...

GeneralDae:
Is Oshiomele’s reckless statement about nationalising MTN affecting the stock price? Because foreign investors are anlso involved in MTN Nigeria and may take the joke of Oshiomole too seriously than local investors.

Buy the Dip

naturalflow:
Our wapco dividend how far?

This one be like e don enter one chance o

thebargainhunte:
Insurance companies are not getting it funny...what is this Nem?

if Insurance coys never trap your funds for NGX, means you have not played the market long enough

That is probably why many big players never touch those Insurance coy shares unless they want to have a seat on the board

ojeysky:
Royalex is coming to sub 1 with this their yeye result kai where is Loco

Insurance coys go always stain una white shirts

Could it be that TIP Plc management pumping their share price to attract Institutional Investors??

At the TIP AGM, the Registrar moved a motion for the outstanding shares from the offer to be sold to institutional investors at #9.50 as they were not fully issued at the Rights issue

That this reason is why they have not been able to allot shares to retail investors who participated in the Rights.

nedu666:
Make it find small trouble. Today is the final day in April and access the bank swallowing other banks in Africa have not released results. If the result is bad, Today is the best day to drop it as no trading from tomorrow to Sunday. So enough time for angry investors to cool temper

wait small na..it will drop after close of trading

so you will have enough time to get angry and cool down before next trading day on monday

debeey87:
They had some shut down on some of their facilities, transforcados pipe shut down too.

yes, heard that They lost almost 38 days of onshore production

good thing is that their debt went lower

emmanuelewumi:
Oando's 1 for 2 right offer at N50 per share

Is this why Oando has good bids for its shares today?

nedu666:
Some one who sells his house to buy shares must have another house where he lives.

you were not around in the 2007/2008 bull run

nedu666:
At the rate wapco is going. 1000 sure by year end

make una good down o

some peole go see this post now...go sell their house to buy wapco shares and end up living under the bridge

feelamong:
abeg who has the last Aradel report?

what was their dividend?

ok..just seen the report that its not yet out

2025 Audited Results: Due to a recent acquisition, the 2025 Audited Financial Statements (AFS) are scheduled for release on or before May 29, 2026

Oasisblue:
Aradel has reached a treshhold of 10%. Hope it sustains it. Perhaps people have seen their Q1 result? When id their AGM and dividend declaration?

abeg who has the last Aradel report?

what was their dividend?

crownprince2017:
I saw oga Nosa on the eti queue trying to bail out.