₦airaland Forum

fergie001:
Ogbu too

Which ogbu? It is a north ceñtral affairs.

It seems the impeachment sittings of shuaibu has been stalled

fergie001:
Let the South complete their 8 years and go please.

I heard suswan and babangida aliyu are competing for chairman of pdp

Penguin2:
Now, tell me why you think El Rufai would be playing with a chance to contest the 2031 presidential election as a seating Vice President.

Deep inside you,you know obi cannot win tinubu.only atiku or kwankwaso can win Tinubu.obi just makes it easier for tinubu.i don't understand how you calculate your own.as the se won't vote tinubu is how the core north and sw won't vote obi

Penguin2:
So you lots are salivating at the possibility of having Otti in APC abi?

I’m not gonna doubt that Otti might defect because we never know humans but the day he does that is the day he will kill the goodwill he enjoys in Abia. It might not stop him from winning re-election but the people would no longer care about him.

As for Umahi, I do pray he doesn’t cry like Orji Uzor Kalu, Okorocha and Ogbonnaya Onu cried after decades of slaving for the north thinking that’s how to get power.

I mentioned it to by mistake.dont forget otti was in APC at some point .before otti joined lp,he was already popular in abia.this popularity was the reason why he won easily and couldn't be rigged out like mbah..
Orji is crying because he miscalculated like atiku his godfather.he sided the wrong camp.same as okorocha and onu.they all backed the north or should I say the buhari cabal instead of the tinubu camp.tinubu values loyalty,everybody that supported him are being rewarded unlike buhari that forgets his supporters.there is no se politician that has backed tinubu that hasn't been rewarded directly or indirectly.deouty speaker kalu is there because he sided tinubu,umahi is there because he sided tinubu.instead of ouk to step down for tinubu he backed lawan and said let the north have power.same thing rochas and onu did.

Looter1000:
thunder fire you for supporting tinubu

And you for voting pandora

Penguin2:
Lol! So this mere rumour now means El Rufai is using Obi as specimen?

Nothing wey pain no fit cause

A serious northern politician has eyes on 2031 not 2027.anyobe contesting in 2027 is trying his luck and building their support base

Penguin2:
Read my post and understand me well….

I didn’t say he struggled in the last election, I’m talking about his 2019 attempt at installing Abba Gida Gida which failed.

And until last year, he has never contested in a national election.

So there’s nothing different between the El Rufai of today and the pre-2023 general election Kwankwaso.

Even a baby knows that the core northern and Muslim voters will react differently to an Obi/El-Rufai ticket than they did in 2023.

Only Kwankwaso has a bigger pull, but El Rufai is not distant behind.

There is a difference sir, kwankwaso has a greater grip of Kano than El rufai in kaduna.kwankwaso has a cult like followrrship,El rufai doesn't have.
Kwankwaso already told you guys plainly that the north does not want him to deputize a south easterner to show you their disdain

Penguin2:
That it has been like that in the past doesn’t mean it will always be like that.

There’s always a first time.

And if we go by your argument, then you people are deceiving Umahi by giving him hope that he would succeed Shettima or Ribadu since you know the north will never vote for an Igbo man.

The north will never change their stance towards their religion or the the SE esp one under a mushroom party.umahi or otti under APC will have more chance at presidency than obi sir.

Objectivist04:
Tinubu would have failed woefully if he had contested in an unknown party, simple as that
Even with about twenty governors, many senators and the president himself, he has to use thugs in Lagos, Wike in Rivers before he could manage a slim Victory.

Tinubu founded Acn before it morphed into APC which is like his property unlike obi that jumps from one place to another.tinubu might fail under an unknown party but he created APC unlike obi that has no biz in LP.
If you minus Lagos and rivers,tinubu still win sir.tje core north gave tinubu victoru

Penguin2:
We are just testing the waters.

We will come out with what’s best for us and Nigeria when the time is right.

El rufai is also testing the waters ahead of 2031 and he is unfortunately using obi as a specimen

Penguin2:
That’s why Obi is in the north.

Between now and 2027, he shall have considerably cleared some of the fallacies tagged on his person and lowered the defenses of some powerbrokers in the core north.

One of the reasons they closed their eyes and allowed Tinubu rig his way to power was because Obi wanted to get to power without them and that would have meant they wouldn’t have any control over him or extract any commitment from him.

Those things will change in 2027.

Oga,nothing obi will do in the north that will be compared to what gej did for them.
Nobody closed their eyes to rigging up north sir.obi is a persona non grata in the north compared to tinubu.the north will always consider a Yoruba first,ss second and se last.you know this yet you are still deceiving yourself

Penguin2:
The truth is that it’s dicey.

There’s a lot of pushback on the idea from a lot of Obidients.

I don’t think it would work.

Orr.el rufai is a great enemy to the northern christians.starting from southern kaduna,he will lose scandalously

Objectivist04:
Don't mind them , if not because of northern governors that worked for Tinubu, how many northerners knew him. Obi for me is the most formidable politician in Nigeria currently for going this far without even a cancellor working for him and through an unknown party.

What Obi needs to do in 2027 is to run with a popular northerner and they will sack Tinubu from aso rock.

Sharrap,tinubu has been known to the north since 1993.he has cultivated friendship nationally and even in West Africa for many years before obi became governor

Objectivist04:
So we can as well count benue as part of states won by Obi since Tinubu won only by 2000 votes ryt ? Una hypocrisy too much

Yes but winning narrowly in a place where you are supposed to win heavily is a failure.add benue to obi then

DMerciful:
You're too politically knowledgeable to pretend like you're naive. You know the truth

Which is

Penguin2:
You say these things because everywhere is still quiet because it’s not election time yet.

When election time arrives and this hunger everywhere hasn’t subsided, you will see that Tinubu will be scorched out of Aso Rock and no rigging will help him.

I’m sure no Imam would be stupid enough to still preach the gospel of M.M ticket to northerners if he doesn’t wanna be unfortunate.

So, while I admit that a lot of things might still happen between now and 2027 to change the variables of the polity, I posit that most of them will work in Obi’s favour than they would in Tinubu’s.

You still don't understand nigerians.no matter tinubu performance,a lot of people have biases against obi.the north will never choose obi against tinubu.no southerner has ever gotten votes in core north except those with mm ticket.the imams will still not preach for obi
On election day,tinubu will bring out money and a lot will still vote him.the who is who in Nigeria are all friendly with Tinubu

Penguin2:
Until 2023, Kwankwaso was not tested electorally outside of Kano.

Kwankwaso struggled to deliver Kano in 2019 and couldn’t.

So, if we go by those parameters, then Kwankwaso is equally not different from El Rufai.

Kwankwaso did not struggle to win Kano sir.he won tinubu by 450k votes and atiku by 900k.he swept the nass polls.he came third in all new states outside kaduna.
In 2015, kwankwaso helped buhari to get 2 mil and won Kano for ganduje and he almost won ganduje in 2019.

DMerciful:
This failure Tinubu wey Obi defeat in 2023 but INEC rigged Tinubu in.

Did obi say he won? Did he prove rigging? Did obi win core north

Objectivist04:
Atiku won sokoto, so I don't know what you mean by wamako delivered his state.
Tinubu only won Zamfara and jigawa in the entire north west and only borno in north east
, Tinubu's victory is the weakest since 1999 with just 36% of total votes cast

Atiku won sokoto by 3000 votes which is like a victory for tinubu.besides,APC cleared the remaining polls in sokoto compared to kaduna where tinubu lost by over 150k and almost all the nass seats.tinubu won despite you guy's expectations whether weak or strong

Penguin2:
I don’t think Akume as SGF has benefited the ordinary Benue man in any way that would make them like Tinubu. You and I know that Tinubu won Benue because of the Alia effect. If Fr Alia’s posturing changes in 2027, Tinubu will struggle to make 25% in Benue in 2027. Besides, Benue people are still being massacred in their sleep.

In Rivers, all those pledging of loyalty to Tinubu you see those guys doing is because they know they can’t fight powers that be. They know if they come out to openly stand against Tinubu it might be counterproductive because Tinubu might decide to align with Wike to dislodge Fubara in a very brutish manner and nothing will really happen. So, pledging loyalty to Tinubu is just to not make him apprehensive. But you and I know that neither Secondus nor Lee Maeba nor Omehia can control even 2% of Rivers voters. They will vote where they wanna vote in 2027 irrespective of who pledges loyalty to whom.

Will Okpebholo win Edo? Anything is possible. But I like the fact you admitted that not even Okpebholo as a sitting governor can change much about Edo people’s voting pattern in general election. Even Oshiomole couldn’t do it.

Doesn’t matter what happens in Cross River, Obi will win again and even Bayelsa won’t be rigged for Atiku again.

Most of those who were rigging for Atiku were doing it because they thought Obi didn’t stand a chance. But having seen how far Obi went despite their rigging against him, they now know that Obi can do it and nobody would be taking his votes and be giving to another candidate like Udom and Diri did last year.

Then ultimately, add the general disenchantment of the Nigerian people against Tinubu. The mass hunger, increased inflation, inhuman policies, etc.

Except these policies yield unprecedented results before 2027, Tinubu will struggle even in Southwest.

When I told you that Alia will help tinubu win in benue,did you agree,so why are you agreeing now? Does that not show you how good I am at analyzing and why you should stop arguing blindly.

How many political posts favour the masses? Does that stop the masses from following the politicians? Did buhari govt favour the north.tjis thing is not about favouring the masses but having a sense of belonging and not feel marginalized.everu tribe wants to have their people at Abuja whether it favours them or not.
The tivs have been frozen out of national politics for years and idomas are the ones enjoying so now that they are there,they are grateful afterall they expected nothing.the tivs do not seem to like SE from what I am seeing.upon all the killings under buhari,did buhari not almost win benue? You still don't understand how voters reason...
Bayelsa was not rigged,I told you that obi worst performance in ss will be from bayelsa and aks.tje ijaws don't seem to fancy your area and the obidients fire never penetrated there.diri is somehow close to Tinubu so expect same narrow and useless result.even if obi wins CRS,it will be lower and meaningless.he will still lose aks by a bigger margin.if okpebholo wins,APC will get more support in esan thereby weakening obi.
The rigging in rivers really discouraged rivers voters and fubara is currying tinubu support.obi may still win SS but it will be meaningless.outside Lagos,obi will be buried as usual plus the core north.obi can not recover the deficit with the 5 SE states which tinubu can even supprezs

DMerciful:
Better for Atiku to support Obi in 2027 because Obi will win with or without him. Atiku time has passes

Tinubu will bury obi if so

Penguin2:
You see I rated Kwankwaso above El Rufai because Kwankwaso is clearly above him when it comes to popularity and all.

But I beg to disagree that after Kwankwaso anybody else comes above El Rufai.

How many votes can Wamako control outside of Sokoto?

Where is Badaru known in the north?

Aside Borno, where else is Shettima known?

Yari is an expired Zamfara jihadist.

You can be realistic than this. Or you are now belittling El Rufai because he has fallen out with your lord and saviour?

Oga, El rufai has not been tested electorally outside kaduna so you cannot over rate him.anyone that struggles to win his state cannot win outside.el rufai has never liked tinubu and he never hide his hatred.their romance was just for a moment and ended immediately.
Many northerners despise El rufai for his role in that suite massacre...badaru,wamakko delivered their states despite atiku being stronger there.
Shettima has large influence in yobe,jigawa and parts of Bauchi,the kanuris are rallying around him

Udoboss:
No….SS is locked down for OBi

Many were rigged you saw what happened in Rivers , AkwaIbom, Delta

Atiku best chance is to actively be involved with northerns from day one and tell Obi to chill for him

Oga,only rivers was rigged.ss is not locked for obi.many isd SS hate obi.do you have evidence of rigging outside rivers

Penguin2:
Lol!

Go and ask to be taught.

El Rufai is a poster child of northern establishment especially because of his consistent hardline stance on matters of Islam and the north.

The rich of the north like him.

The Talakawas as well, like him.

Kwankwaso might be the only northerner that ranks above him but the others that you mentioned can’t lace El Rufai’s shoe in terms of popularity in the core Muslim north.

This is informed by facts and you can ask Garfield1 your fellow Agbado to further educate on how those men stand in the north.

Oga that's not true.el rufai is not grassrooted,he rode on buhari popularity to victory.yes he might be popular among some aristocrats hardliners but not the talakawas.

He failed to deliver kaduna when needed and struggled to deliver his son and Uba sani.even in 2019,he struggled.the real strong man of the north apart from buhari is kwankwaso,look at how he cleared Kano.wamakko,badaru,yari,shettima are stronger.atiku power is mainly due to the party he contested.put kwankwaso under pdp and see him sweep the north..El rufai is overrated

Googledotcom:
That question should go to the greatest magicians, the electoral body whom Nigerians has lost faith in.

Oga,obi wan never going to win.stop clutching onto straws

Googledotcom:
The magic that happened in Rivers State, I'm sure to say election is waste of time, it doesn't count.

If you remove that magic,would obi have won

seunmsg:
Going by the result of the last election, it’s wrong to claim that Peter Obi has SS on lockdown. Of the 6 SS states, he won in 3, Atiku won 2 and Tinubu won 1.

There is a strong possibility that the governors of Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa may move to APC before 2027. If that happens and with the influence of the Senate president, APC may win Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa.

Again, there is no way APC is losing Benue in 2027. The anti-Christian toga and Islamization agenda that was used to deceive North central Christians in 2023 won’t work in 2027. A lot of Christians have seen clearly that Tinubu has no Islamization again. With Akume as SGF, nothing can stop APC from winning Benue.

I agree with your other permutations.

Yes northwest and NE should be split but tinubu should win sokoto,kebbi,katsina, Kano(kwankwaso doesn't contest) in addition to jigawa.zamfara will be tight since dare is pro atiku.tinubu will still lose kaduna.

For ne,tinubu will win yobe this time.bauchi and gombe will be tighter.
Tinubu will extend his lead in NC and SW

Svoboda:
No. The names you mentioned now are among his nemesis. I am even referring to strategists.

I think, eventually, he abandoned them for marabouts. They were some he inherited from shehu musa yaradua, like Yomi edu. There was them Ben Ndi Obi, Dozie Ikedife, dapo sarunmi, tanko yakassai, and so on. But he allowed those other rats who were even stealing from him to displace those other ones i mentioned. Even James Ibori was once loyal to atiku. He was among the champions of the cult of pdp govs who wanted him to shove obj aside in 2003.

You are right.atiku had some of the best brains from 199-2007 but he abandoned them after 2007 and never bothered to keep touch or build his following like tinubu,buhari or kwankwaso.he believes that money is everything and with money,he can buy his way to power forgetting that loyalty is key

TheClassAct:
Don’t mind them with their senseless talks. Plateau people voted massively for PDP. Anybody with a thinking brain knows the court did a grave injustice to the PDP lawmakers, and, by extension, to the Plateau people, since they were robbed of the choice in broad daylight.

The governor won narrowly with 40,000 votes,that's not massive voting.that is not an excuse for the governor to behave foolishly and undemocratically

rolams:
Ok. Till then

I think you owe me a crate of beer

kokoA:
Obi has taken his place sadly. As long as Obi is in thesame race Atiku should forget about being president. These are my reasons:

1. South East and South South which use to be his stronghold is locked down for Obi.

2. North Central is likely to be splited with Benue, Plateau and Nasarawa for Obi, though APC will do very well in Benue if the governor remains in APC till then. APC will hold down Niger, Kwara and Kogi as usual.

3. North East is likely to be splited 50/50 between APC and PDP.

4. North West to is likely to split between APC and PDP.

5. South west might be locked down totally for APC.

Only south east is locked down for obi.ss is divided

kokoA:
add Ayu, Lwkmd I thought I was the only one who found that comment funny.

Tinubu has the best collections of brains actually.even buhari try