₦airaland Forum

Ojuntana:
Stop lying bro. Fintech was captured in the 2014 GDP rebasing and so was telecoms and all those other sectors you mentioned.
You're right on some points especially the expansion of telecoms and fintech but the basic one is that Nigeria's GDP has shrank. This is more due to less fDI and currency devaluation and increase in cost of doing business.
You heard the NBS SG saying they intend to capture prostitution and drugs as well as other illicit trades in GDP. That's because they know that while frontiers like fintech has expanded, the sum total has shrunk.
Besides, the claim was that they wanted to release it by January ending. What's the cause of the delay? Why is WB the one announcing the result instead of NBS?

Fintech was at very nascent stage in 2010 to 2014. Nigerian GDP since 2020 has been growing and did not shrink for a moment. Even the GDP based on PPP has also grown.

The real GDP (when you remove inflation) since 2020 has also never shrank. So the only thing that has shrunk here is the nominal GDP in dollars which makes no sense because the resulting inflation from devaluation should put the economy at par once the purchasing power catches up.

GDP PPP is still growing, and companies have already started making huge profits that beat the devaluation losses of H1 2024, which shows that the purchasing power has caught up already. So the rebasing should put Nigeria at around $490 Billion.

Argentina also devalued their currency just last year from 370 to 1000 currently. Why didn’t their economy shrink by half? It shows why Nigeria must rebase to show the true value of the economy in naira. Devaluation shouldn’t automatically shrink your GDP by half, and even if it does, it shouldn’t be down for up to two years if you are not in a recession.

Proshare did a study recently of the recapitalisation of the Nigerian Banking sector and with the recapitalisation, it already slightly beats what it was before in May 2023 in dollar terms. The Banking sector always gives a mirror view of the economy.

jaxxy:
This is nonsense. u are wasting my time.

Because you have no rebuttal to it. You asked what constitutes the other 92% in GDP? There you have it.

jaxxy:
Tell me what makes up the 92%? Whatever do u produce?

u can just talk without backing it up and expect us accept ur statement cos u are who?

In fintech ( the biggest in Africa with moniepoint and flutterwave, opay), we have 4 out of the 6 unicorns in Africa. This is not captured in our current GDP because during the base year 2010, they were at infant stages or didn’t exist.
Telecoms have increased their customer base so much that only MTN has over 130 million active customers. No african country comes close and the revenue is only matched by SA.
Banks have huge customer bases. Dangote cement industry is the largest in Africa. Our Agricultural production is one of the largest in Africa (yam, rice, sesame, soybean, etc). Our informal trade sector is by far the largest in Africa and competes with the likes of Indonesia. We produce a lot of things. The Lekki free trade zone is full of industries producing a lot.

Hemanwel:
What's our GDP currently? What's South Africa's, Egypt's, Algeria's. Because we want to rebase our GDP this year, it now automatically translates to us been the highest in Africa? Go research about the history of the largest economies in Africa from 1960 and see that South Africa had been number one right from time imo river, except on two or three occasions in the year 2000s. Since 1960 oh! Have we not been rebasing ever since?

We hardly rebase actually. When we rebased in 2014, we had not rebased since 1990 until then.

SalamRushdie:
Before you rebase there must be some substance and growth in the economy.. currently all the related numbers show economic disaster

In Obasanjo’s first term, economy was growing rapidly but people could not see it because the inflation was high (remember complaints then and songs by Idris and African China). There was devaluation from Abacha’s fixed 22 naira to USD in 1998 to the parallel market rate of 90 naira then ( that’s 4 times devaluation).

But in his second term especially from 2006, we began to see the rise of a new kind of middle class and the naira stop depreciating fast at around 120 to 150 to USD.

Tinubu’s economic reforms would bear fruits faster because the situation in 2023 was not as bad as 1999.

"Higher crude receipts at Dangote would boost Nigerian gasoline output as the refinery is configured to maximise gasoline production and its 250,000 b/d residual fluid catalytic cracker is the largest in the world. The cracker underwent a planned three day maintenance program last month, but no gasoline cargo loading delays were reported during the work"

We Nigerians, we are getting there. Lowest import of petrol since 2017.

Yankee101:
Only one PTA is 4000 dollars

As far as CBN is concerned you can also get BTA/PTA from your Bank. Bank rate is currently 1497.

Basicend:
Hmm. In effect, they are honestly trying to face out BDCs.

If banks activate their debit cards for FX, they always have a cap on it. Maximum $200 to $500 daily or $1,000 / month.
That cannot be sufficient for SMEs that do daily importation. And, since they cant access it from CBN or any other approved trading window. The liquidity challenge still prevails.

Good point. For this, Banks can request for the tax numbers of these SME’s or any other means of identification then set higher limits for them. Those who want to just shop in Dubai should have their limits much lower.

NothingDoMe:
Basically, we want to lose the gains?

A steady downward drop is not a good economic indicator, especially for foreign investors.

But it’s just a one month trend who says it won’t pick up again soon?

NothingDoMe:
And we lost over $1bn in fx reserves.

Yes but we also gained $8 Bn in 8 months.

Irony1:
The government sell dollars to the BDCs via the authorised dealer banks. That is why it is limited to $25k

BDC’s are supposed to get from Banks. That’s how it’s done all over the world and that’s what Cardoso is implementing. Banks too are encouraged to bring in their own FX and when they do BDC’s would definitely also buy from them.

vaxx:
There is a policy being promoted by Ghanaian government called "Ghana Beyond Aid" it was initiated in 2017,The aim is to encourage domestic economic development and reduce dependence on foreign aid. It is actively working. And Ghana has indeed moved from poor country to middle income country, making it less welcoming to aid just like the likes of Botswana and Cape Verde .

Ghana receiving less aid is a deliberate act from the govt, coupled with its real domestic economic progress . Fact has shown foreign assistance aid doesn't developed a nation but promoting domestic economic act can leads to self sufficiency and sustainable goal

Ghana beyond aid has nothing to do with it. The countries with the most aids are either fighting wars, conflicts, or diseases. Ghana have naturally very peaceful people and so would hardly instigate conflicts.

Basicend:
How can dealer banks and BDCs work with $25,000 weekly? Is that not unrealistically too small?

Cardoso and all these trial and error schemes.

It should be enough for BDC’s. All Cardoso has to do now is encourage Banks to activate their naira cards again so people can use dollars directly at the official rate from the Banks. Then ban dollar cash of more than $200.

masseratti:
This policy will only take us back to where we are before now...just let the Fx flow freely...allow the market to determine the price ,allow buyers and sellers to do transaction with minimal interface..has the largest forex contributor into the economy allow the IOCs to pay you in naira ..while.they buy the naira and pay the government..they can only buy the naira from the general public...this economy thing is not a rocket science..just do thinga the right way and the system will stabilize it's self .. simple..all this regulations I just to make some ppl rich .

Lol. If IOC’s pay CBN in naira, then how do we build our reserves to service foreign debts? You see why what you wrote there makes little sense?

Chevrolet076:
Exactly

To be sincere, i see no reason why the FG is selling dollars to BDC. If anyone needs dollars for business, let them use the bank payment method to make the purchase. If you want to invest, buy gold, real estate, or agriculture. FOREX shouldnt be used as a store of value! They just create unnecessary scarcity and make it look like the demand is high whereas its just sitting in some people's bank account or wardrobe.

The same jagajaga economics is why Nigerians are buying Naira from POS. Why the fvck can't the bank fvcking do their damn jobs! Why should POS agent have cash and banks do not? Why can't I fvcking withdraw cash at the ATM. And instead of the stupid govt to even make epayment seamless, they're adding EMTL fee and the transfers that used to be free now requires you to add money to it.

Very stupid govt.

The Government is not selling dollars to BDC’s. If you read the article, you would see the BDC’s are to go buy from the Banks.

vaxx:
in Africa .

Some nation with the biggest GDP in Africa are also the biggest beggars .

They want everything free

Well Ghana doesn’t have conflict or HIV problems so there’s that.

But I do think the supposed effect from the removal of these U.S fundings especially from countries like Naija and SA are over-exaggerated.

In Nigeria these fundings go to corrupt individuals and there’s good evidence (especially from our chief of defence staff) to believe they fuel the insecurity as their activities have been suspicious for years.
In South Africa, the HIV funding from America doesn’t make up more than 17% of the entire funds used by S.A.

I think countries like Dr Congo, Mali, Bfaso, Niger, Sudan and Ethiopia are in more trouble from this and the AU must do something about this.

Dogalmighty17:
The law needs to be revisited. It is understandable that oil suppliers will seek markets where the can get the best price for thier output. It is also understandable that the government would want the needs of the local refineries met before exporting to the foreign market.
However, this situation leads to an inevitable situation where the price the local refineries may offer will be less than what the international market offers. Forcing the oil companies to meet local quotas at less prices goes against the free market.

True, because our Bonny light crude called sweet crude is special and the most expensive in the world. We get more value from it when it is exported because local refiners would not want to pay the real price for it because it’s local to us.

Kaduna state - Agricultural powerhouse for the region.

GUWA GRAINS MARKET✅

The market is a foremost trading centre for grains (Maize, Soybean, Sorghum, etc) & other agricultural products, connecting farmers with buyers from neighbouring States like Katsina, Sokoto, Kano & traders from other Sahel countries (Niger, Chad, Mali etc).

Giwa Grains Market is one of the major agricultural hubs in Kaduna State.

Giwa Grains Market operates twice a week – Sundays and Thursdays.

Giwa Grains Market is located at Ungwan Shehu along Zaria – Funtua Road in Giwa LGA, Kaduna - Nigeria🇳🇬

(Copied).

Kreesxxx:
No. I am not. See Tinubu has benched mark how much he needs in naira via the cost of Petro. If petrol drops price the only way to balance the budget is to depreciate the naira or alternatively increase the production of crude oil. With what you know about our leaders which one do you think they benefit and the people will groan? You know the answer. Depreciating the naira comes easy and the people will groan under hardship.

That budget has not yet been passed. It starts in June. We are still working with the old budgets.

Gboss247:
The landing cost of petrol from Europe is $0.9 across the coast of West Africa, importers sells it 50% below the landing cost and demands under-recovery cost from the federal government.

You assume they demand under recovery from the FG except you have proof to back this up. But let’s even assume this is true, are you saying Dangote is currently selling at a loss? Why is he then not selling at 1200 (afterall shipping cost elimination doesn’t make much difference)?
What you should know is that the other West African countries impose high tariffs on petroleum products. Nigeria has never really been doing that and would not start now.

EMIOMOADEOYE:
In this case, this is monopoly at work.

This is not the last of this.

Dangote can afford to go as low as 500 or 600

But he knows that he is a Tiger in the midst of pussycats.

Just keep in sptep with their puny littel moves and milk as much profits as possible.

EVenetually, all this small players will fizzle out when they can no longer match baba's moves.

When they are all gone, baba will then move price back up

Just like he did with cement

Dangote cannot afford to go below the price crude oil is sold to him.

sucess001:
You get fuel in naira and refune locally and you are sayinh price reduced because of global prices.

Which part of your operations is exposed to global trade?

The crude oil sold to Dangote in naira is not subsidized. It’s at the exchange rate level. Besides Dangote does not get all his crude oil from Nigeria in naira.

Gboss247:
Removal subsidy and subsidize imported petrol secretly

Subsidize imported petrol how? If they are doing that, how come the price of imported petrol is almost thesame as that of Dangote? What is the current landing cost of petrol?

fineboynl:
.. the adjustment here and there is killing the economy. The price needs to be fixed and that's where subside comes in.

This is what it means to remove subsidy. This is how price of petrol fluctuates worldwide depending on movements in price of crude oil. Nigerians are not used to it yet because of decades of fuel subsidy.

Skyehigher1:
If we have importer of cement ni cement price will also go down

Cement is different from petrol. Petrol prices are determined by global crude oil prices.

zikter:
Where are the two functioning NNPC refineries? I hear nothing about them now. At least Dangote is talking and we are hearing

The warri refinery produces only diesel and kerosene for now but would start producing petrol before April. The old PH refinery produces petrol of not more than 2 million litres per day which is not up to 5% of Nigeria’s demand.

chimex38:
https://www.thecable.ng/cbn-approves-cfa-for-repatriation-of-export-proceeds/

My understanding
African countries with CFA franc don't need to source for dollars to pay for our exports.
It is officially a foreign exchange tradable currency for Nigeria by CBN inaddition to dollar, Pounds, Euro and now Chinese yuan.

This is a strategic one. It could be a strategy to formalise the informal cross border trades and reduce this fight for conversion to more expensive dollars. Those from Niger, Benin, and Chad who live in Nigeria and want to trade goods can easily transfer their CFA to Banks without hustling for more expensive dollars from the BDC’s.

Deltamani:
Lol 😂
Zambia say na Woman ooo, what do we do?

Na this ones Dey mk dem dey make noise online so na..!

Zambia and Dr Congo suppose don win World Cup like this.

Deltamani:
Esther Okoronkwo is that forward in the team that you think does nothing but she does alot..😂😇😂

One of the few players in the team who is already naturally skilful. Skill should be used tactically but personally, I have a thing for naturally skilled players ie the Okocha’s, Ronaldinho’s, Messi’s, Martha’s, etc.

Xisnin:
This isn't about personal issues and appeals but institutional strength and integrity.
Any organization that grants the same rights to both current and ex-members has
lost its reason for existing.

ECOWAS is an international union and not ethnic enclave.
It would have been better if ECOWAS pretended to renegotiate the trade deals
with the ex-members and end up conferring them with most of the existing privileges
than the blanket rights extended to ex-members.

It cost the UK billions of dollars to leave the EU along with revoked privileges,
but ECOWAS ex-members are making gains and keeping all membership privileges.

Well ECOWAS is not the EU. If this were to be Ghana, Ivory Coast or Senegal leaving, then ECOWAS may decide to be as harsh as the EU to make them reap the consequences. But Niger, Mali, Bfaso, are all landlocked countries already struggling with armed conflict that affects their neighbours. Isolating them won’t be in the region’s best interest.

Shaytun:
That’s huge!!

We will be seeing $1trillion this year??

That’s over 700 Billion dollars for the full year. December 2024 had the highest number of transactions in our history. That should signify real economic growth in Q4 2024 with PMI rising to 51% for the first time in a long while.
Our Q4 2024 GDP numbers would be interesting.

Dangote petrol sales also kicked in in Q4.

I predict GDP growth of up to 3.8%.