₦airaland Forum

People just ran away with the rumour that Dangote was fighting Tinubu. It’s so funny how folks could easily believe some of these rumours.

awesomeJ:
You now made it seem like we were arguing??
We're basically saying the same thing.

And I'm not a politician at all.

I haven't had voter's card since 2011. And i'v never voted.

Arguing? Notice I said true at the beginning. I wasn’t debating your points but I was giving more details especially to Tinubu supporters who keep saying he was bold on subsidy removal. I am saying I doubt he would have allowed full deregulation by now without the Dangote effect which started in October 2024.

awesomeJ:
How about government left the currency to float and there was no refinery, we're still looking for $2bn monthly to import fuel, would the currency not have collapsed?

No one is saying government policies haven't been super helpful, what I'm saying is that when Alhaji decided to stake $20bn on the economy about a decade ago, it was a seed he planted, and the impact of that on the economy shouldn't be understated.


Currency peg was removed in 2023, yet the impact was that diesel went from 1050 to 1700.

Maybe it's so easy to forget

It wasn't another currency peg removal that brought diesel down from 1700, it was a local refinery that started producing, what we're saying is that he too (like the government) deserves credit that's not small.

True, without Dangote refinery coming on stream, I doubt Tinubu would have successfully removed fuel subsidy by now. He removed it on May 29th, 2023 and then floated the naira in June. The resulting inflation and increased money supply shut the naira to 1000 by October 2023 and he had to bring back subsidy again by using only the official rate of 800 for PMS imports.

This got worse in February 2024 when we harmonized both official and parallel rates again at 1300/1400. We did that but we were still subsidising PMS imports by using the 800 rate until October 2024 when subsidy was fully removed because of Dangote’s entrance.

Between December 2023 and September 2024, NNPC was owing international oil marketers $6.8 Billion and serious fuel queues returned as a result of this. We were on our way to serious collapse.

Olaide1295:
Don't mind them. Dangote refinery coming to life is because Tinubu set enabling policies.
If dollar peg was still there and Dangote needed to lobby CBN and wait for weeks before he gets USD to buy crude oil, won't the refinery have collapsed?
Good govt. policies have a way of smoothening out business that you will think success has nothing to do with the government.

Nah. I would say in this case, Emiefele supported the refinery by ensuring Dangote had smooth access to FX at official rate. If Dangote was still building at a critical stage in 2023 and 2024, he would have struggled due to the instability and constant devaluation of the naira then but the official rate crawling peg during Buhari’s time (especially from 2016 to 2023) was more stable for him. Also, Emiefele/Buhari took the project as a critical one. But this easy access to cheaper FX would not have continued for long though if FX scarcity at CBN continued and net reserves dried up.

Streetinvestor2:
Gas way is still buy 1200 per kg 2 days ago.

Importers still dominate the market for now alongside NLNG. But wholesale prices in Nigeria range from 740 to 1000 at the moment with Dangote selling the cheapest at 740 as at August 2025. No retailer should be selling above 1300 currently anywhere in Nigeria and none above 1100 anywhere in Lagos but for greed and other factors.

“Dangote’s cooking gas price cheapest in Nigeria Checks by Legit.ng on petroleumpriceng’s price data show that the refinery slashed the LPG price to N740 per kg, the lowest among depot operators and cheapest in Nigeria. The latest price is also the cheapest the refinery has sold cooking gas in 2025 after rates jumped above N1,000 per kilogramme. Experts have hailed the move as exemplary, urging other operators to follow suit. They also attributed the latest price cut to the declining crude oil prices in the international market. Read more”:

https://www.legit.ng/business-economy/energy/1669173-after-pms-dangote-refinery-slashes-cooking-gas-price-n800kg-lowest-nigeria/

awesomeJ:
The government is drastically understating the impact of DIL on the economy.

Remove DIL's investment and let's see how well the reforms alone would go.

Diesel was constantly selling for 1700, man came in and crashed it immediately to 1200, inducing a significant relief to everything from the cost of milling flour to the cost of transporting tomatoes.


About this time last year we were hearing landing cost of PMS was 1120, add retailers margin, and we'll be talking 1200 in Lagos, man stepped in and we're doing 860.

Tinubu wants me to believe it's just reforms that are taming inflation?


Then you hear him talking of the largest export of Urea, export of cement.

Imagine how proud I was to read about him shipping hundreds of thousands of tons of PMS to the U.S, and Tinubu wants people to believe it's just reforms that are driving trade surplus??


That man is the only man that can make me get a PVC, I'll wake up at 5am on election day(I typically wake up past 8am), and stay with the vote for as long as needed if he ever chooses to contest.

I won't even care if he embezzles half the national budget, cos I know, unlike some dumb folks that will stash it foolishly in foreign economies, the man will deploy it fully back to help the economy way more than their borehole and street light budgets are currently doing.

He must make heaven!

Thank God BUA also seems to be following his footsteps!

Even cooking gas. His cooking gas price has always been lower but his production capacity of cooking gas is still not sufficient enough for the market so he doesn’t control the market share at the moment. He has however crashed his cooking gas price to 740. He plans to triple his capacity soon and then he can influence cooking gas prices too like he does PMS.
I believe the reason cement prices are still high at 10k (should be at least 9k) is that there are lots of informal taxes there and Government tax is high and he has complained about this several times. He said 52 kobo out of every 1 naira profit they make goes to various taxes.
We’ll see how the new tax law addresses this issue of multiple taxation.

Dangote cement:

“My new six million tons of cement plant at Itori, Ogun State, is not for the Nigeria market. It's 100% for export - Dangote”

bastardson:
Bro this na illusion.

Nobody born of a woman can win that dude.

Let’s just forget about that. It’s better to focus on 2031.

PBAT no be GEJ.

I no dey even reason 2027 for now.. Totally and absolutely sealed.

Be like sey market dey stagnant. My portfolio is not going up or down.

Yope the market is a bit slow now until probably end of September/ early October. Then the market would come alive again.

awesomeJ:
Naira sustaining it's rally, closing today at 1484.14

With reserves expected to hit $41.8bn after tonight's figures, next resistance is 1450!

Reserves are already $41.84 Billion as at September 15th, 2025.

RodgersAkpafu:
Lets see how sustainable this will be though

Or said in another way
Lets hope this is sustainable

US dollar is taking a beating too. So the naira may just keep strengthening relative to USD especially even without CBN intervening much.

awesomeJ:
USD officially broke its 1500 support today though.

1500 resistance for NGN!

Closing at 1497.47 according to Investment One.

Official rate at the moment from Bloomberg website. Hopefully we get to 1400 between now and end of October.

Dangote Refinery has successfully sold its first gasoline shipment to the U.S., showcasing its capacity to meet high-quality standards.
The shipment was delivered via the tanker Gemini Pearl to Sunoco’s terminal in New York Harbor.
This development positions Nigeria as a significant player in the refined petroleum market globally.
Two additional shipments from the refinery are scheduled to arrive in the U.S. later this month.

Deltamani:
Cook without a Technical and Tactically sound coach ahbi?? Dey play!

But even the foreign/oyinbo coaches don’t really do much better. Unlike the super eagles, where we’ve had a Westerhof, we’ve not really had an outstanding foreign coach so far with the super falcons (except if your post is not insisting we must search for a foreign coach).

awesomeJ:
BUAFOODS kick-starting ASI's journey to 150k today.

August's CPI printing lower.

CBN Should add velocity to these masses by doing a 150bps cut next week, so the momentum can be sustained.

I doubt they would cut by more than 50 bps. You would want FPI to still be interested in holding as much naira as possible especially if the U.S FED doesn’t cut rates on Wednesday.

ArcSEMPECJ:
Please don't insult Americans, they don't place kick backs and blowing of contract terms before their citizens, they value their citizens more than they value the roads they construct....

After constructing the coastal road, how many kidnappers do you think it will recruit in Nigeria Take case study from the existing roads now in the hands of bandits ....

So you believe bandits would hide inside water and then come out to stop fast moving cars on a coastal highway?

Racheal45:
Road make bandit Go still dey kidnapp citizen
Abeg this money should be invested in security instead of road

Bandits on a coastal highway? Where dem one hide? Water?

Kaa4:
I still find it hard to understand the wisdom behind this infrastructure expenditure. Good as it may be, we have better things to do than the amount spent or to be spent on this.

BAT's idea against the whole of the country.

Opportunity right and left.

The Lekki Epe expressway is now getting very busy due to trucks at the Dangote refinery. This road offers a good alternative route. This road has many benefits to be honest and there is never a right time to start anything. Just start and keep going.

Redoil:
no be me talk am oooooooooooooooo.

.

only on paper.

“The little amount of money I made while running my business was enough to handle most of my needs, then. Now I earn more here, since the wages have been reviewed, but despite that, that amount can only get me about one-third of the items I was earning then could get me. Until we begin to see the effects of these reforms, positively, it would be foolhardy for us to celebrate,” he stated.

Adesuyi believed Ajayi’s comments captured those of many Nigerians presently living below poverty line. He would want the government to be intentional in ensuring this class of Nigerians is taken out of poverty.

One of the ways, he explained, is to strengthen the naira, since the nation’s present economic woes, he stated, had to do with the declining fortunes of the nation’s currency.

While charging Nigerians on the need to be hopeful, Alaje would, however, want the government to do everything within its power to sustain the ‘little gains’ it had recorded in the area of currency stability.

“One of the ways government can do that is to discourage the use of foreign currency during electioneering period. For instance, it should ensure there is no such exchange of foreign currency either for delegates, or any other politically-exposed persons as the elections in 2027 draw nearer,” he stated.

The renowned economist warned that ignoring such warnings would again put pressure on the dollar, and ‘evaporate’ whatever gains had been made in the area of currency stability.

The best way to continually strengthen the naira is to reduce inflation and one sure way of reducing inflation is to reduce M2 money supply (growth of naira supply into the system either via borrowings, economic expansion (lesser effect), or printing).

Our recent problem with the naira started in 2020 when due to the pandemic, we increased money supply by 31.8% (one of the highest increase in decades). That was when the parallel market began to deviate from the official market again (first time then since 2017). At that time, the CBN didn’t allow the naira float to reflect the drastic increase in M2 money supply. They would have done it eventually anyway.
This was postponed until 2023 when the naira was floated. The problem is that as at the time it was floated (2023), we had serious scarcity of FX already such that by September 2023, our letters of credit for imports were being rejected because the forex backlogs kept growing. We also had problems meeting our budget without the CBN printing new naira into the system (ways and means). The CBN continued to print until the end of 2023 to meet up the budget (7 trillion naira was printed in FY2023 by both Buhari and BAT to meet up the budget and pay salaries). So this was double jeopardy and it meant except we borrow heavily at once (in dollars), the parallel market would continue to go haywire at a faster rate. But we had very little external options for fast borrowing, so the CBN had to float again in early 2024 (from 800 to the parallel market rate of 1400) to at least trap some of the remittances and direct them into the official market and allow FPI’s flow in again (they were going down throughout 2023).

This is how we got to where we are. In 2025, this situation has gotten way better. Our year to date money supply has reduced significantly from over 40% in 2023 and 2024, to 15.78% as of June 2025. This is why the naira is not depreciating fast in 2025 like we saw in 2023 and 2024.

“The Nigeria Tax Act 2025 taxes capital gains on share disposals at personal income tax rates (up to 25%) for individuals, integrating them into PIT. Exemptions apply if aggregate proceeds < ₦150M and gains ≤ ₦10M in 12 months.

Withholding tax typically applies to dividends/interest, not directly to capital gains on stock sales, which are self-assessed upon filing. Confirm with FIRS for your specifics”.

(Grok)

civilserva:
You are right about one thing, macroeconomics isn't for amateurs hawking "Aba originals" in Lagos. But dismissing critics as haters? That's the bigotry shining through, assuming anyone questioning the emperor's borrowing spree must be tribal or ignorant, not, say, a citizen tired of policies that jacked inflation to 34%, shuttered factories, and left families choosing between garri and school fees. The government got reforms to tout (FX backlog cleared, reserves up), but debt trap? That is on his watch too.
Sad sad? Nah, just frustrating when defenders turn into denialists. Let's debate data, not demean. What is your take on that 52.7% debt-to-GDP breaching the fiscal rule?

When we speak of Government debt, I think it has become pertinent to separate the local debt from foreign debt. This Government met a foreign debt of about $43 Billion and they have added approximately $3 Billion since then ( mostly world bank loans at cheap rates). So the foreign debt is about $46 Billion.
The local debt was about 26 trillion naira under Buhari. When you add the ways and means of about 23 trillion naira (plus interest) it took local debt to around 50 trillion naira.

This Government has borrowed about 24 trillion naira in local debts (mostly due to inflation and increased interest rates on the treasury bills and Government bonds).

So this Government has borrowed:

Domestic debt: 24 trillion naira
Foreign debt: $3 Billion

With the rebasing of the GDP now showing GDP of 372 trillion naira and a debt of 149 trillion naira (as at Q1 2025), the debt to GDP is no longer 50% but back to around 40%.

stokfrick:
Something must be fishy somewhere!
It funny how some people are quick to defend the government on tax issues and attack their fellow citizens(soft targets) but, deliberately turn a blind eye and are slow to criticize and pressure the Nigerian government when they fail to meet their obligations to the average citizens.
For more than 10 years the issue of fuel subsidy removal lingered and was seen as what what will bring solution to our economic problems and the lives of our people, fix infrastructure, health, education etc.
They also sang the song of currency deviation(more than 100% devaluation) as another solution to our problems, that the naira will no longer be pegged.

Immediately this man entered he did both of them at once, even stopped subsidizing university education for citizens.
Fast-forward more than 2 years down the line, more Nigerians have been thrown deep into poverty and hardship.
Even our health system is in deeper shit.
Insecurity is worse than ever before.
But the government doesn't care.

All the funds accrued from all the different subsidy removal and the so called devaluation of naira runs into trillions of naira, with nothing to show for it.

not even those defending this tax strategy of impoverishing the citizens the more are asking questions instead they are folishly defending them. It baffles me really.
They are quick to refer to global best practices for taxation. How about achieving global best standards of living for your citizens before taxing them to stupor.
No accountability with public funds, nothing.
If you try to probe, they shut you up or kill you
Any their defendants see nothing wrong with that.
As long as we have senseless leaders and followers this country will never progress.
Individually you can support them all you want because somehow you are benefiting from the mess but be careful because one day it will comeback and hunt you.

Good points made but there is a misconception about the tax bill. The tax bill has not increased existing taxes for anyone earning below 1.5 million naira monthly and even those earning above that have only had slight increases in a progressive manner (the higher you earn, the more you pay). Even for those investing in the stock market, over 80% may likely not pay taxes because they are small scale investors.
I read in some summaries that only those investing above 100 million naira per annum would be taxed (but I have to confirm this).
What the tax bill has done is that it has made tax evasion more difficult and expanded the net without increasing the taxes significantly.
It’s true that Government is wasteful but taxes are vital. The most taxed state Lagos is also the most fiscally viable state that doesn’t depend on FAAC. The countries in the world with the most diverse resources also do not play with their taxes and they tax heavily.

Kushites:
Nigeria has a strategic military alliance with China, and has purchased advanced air defence systems from them, with an even BIGGER deal in the pipeline.

See video.

Not sure why foreigners in America know all this news, yet you people don’t.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMgRMYnnRPc?si=N3c_eokSWkFAdNtZ

Because they only follow those who are focussed on political news and so they don’t search for new developments.

pluto09:
I can't see the naira appreciating significantly in the short to medium term.
What is important for us now is a relative stability and ability to grow the reserves. A plus/minus 5% around 1550 should just be ok.

Nah, appreciation to the 1300/1400 level in the next 3 months would speed up the decline in inflation which is ongoing and in turn allow us reduce MPR rates faster. We need some appreciation at least.

megawealth01:
We are watching. All I know is JAGABAN go help me reduce the rate soon

I think 1200 at this time would be a good balance for the economy. But anything less than 1000 in 2025 may affect the economy negatively by increasing imports (because the purchasing power level is already above 900 at least). FAAC would also be severely affected and exporters of cocoa and cashew may lose interest. So 1200 would be very good for 2025, and then maybe have it stabilised at 950/1000 in 2026.

This is my wishful thinking though and what I estimate would make a good balance for the economy 🤣.

Ghanaians recently had cedis suddenly appreciate from 16 cedis to 10 cedis in Q2 (due to high gold prices from Trump’s unpredictability) and it affected them. Remittances dropped sharply and imports increased. Cedis could not take that pressure and it’s back to 12 cedis/$ despite the record high gold prices we still have now.

Roarke:
Thank you. How do one open account with them

Just sign up here. Make sure you submit all documents in correct format (small in size and clear). They would then have to verify (which would take a few days).

https://app.cardinalstone.com/

Dangote is a blessing to Nigeria. This is the highest petroleum export (non crude oil) , I have ever seen. 7.7 trillion naira in Q2, 2025.

From what I see here, refined petroleum products are now second in our exports after crude oil exports, displacing agricultural products (which are usually very low).

Note: Other petroleum products may also include petroleum gases though (usual NBS terminology for gas). Probably they are broken down in the full NBS report.

Roarke:
Good evening House. Can anyone recommend a good stockbroking from with low brokerage fees like Morgan. Your prompt responses would be greatly appreciated

I use cardinal stone. They respond to my mails very quickly whenever I have enquiries.

The CNG direct distribution na the koko. It not only takes away their dues (and possibly jobs), it takes away their power when they decide to strike or cause artificial scarcity.

megawealth01:
I just wish JAGABAN will ban that thing called union sef

Lol. Jagaban is not a military dictator. The unions would sue him to court and win.

megawealth01:
NUPENG abeg REST

They don’t want the free fuel scheme using CNG. They want the old order even if it’s biting the consumers (they don’t care). Dangote already said those of his workers who want to join are free to join. NUPENG must also not force everyone to join or insist that their stickers be placed on the CNG trucks.

emmanuelewumi:
Where is your source? Do you have a link to this

I have no particular source but it’s common knowledge that NUPENG collects huge fees from drivers and some analysts have estimated it to be over 4 Billion naira monthly if you include the new Dangote CNG trucks.
With the new CNG trucks however, NUPENG would lose access to this stream of income especially if the CNG truck drivers are not unionised and they take over the market including big customers like the telcos (who buy expensive diesel). That is the elephant in the room. With Dangote bearing CNG costs for free delivery, he doesn’t need those extra fees which are usually passed on to the consumers.