₦airaland Forum

Streetinvestor2:
So the cbn is the one determining the exchange value indirectly as they like.So how do we now say this is truly what naira should exchange or are u agree 1500 is what it worth to a dollar

In a normal society, banks determine the exchange rate because most of the trading are done there. The BDC’s are mostly at the airports and they also buy from banks to serve tourists and travelers mainly. That’s all.
In these normal situations, banks and central banks activities in the market determines the rate not BDC’s or aboki’s.
BDC’s or aboki can only add their small premiums to the rates but the more they are supplied by banks, the more some BDC’s begin to reduce their rates too. Market foxes.

Streetinvestor2:
So who is funding the aboki now.Has banks and cbn stopped selling to exchange guys weekly or monthly now.

There is supply now for CBN and banks which means majority of people who normally get from official sources do not have to depend on aboki.
Just like we don’t have fuel scarcity at the moment, the black market guys are now more passive currently because no queues at filling stations (official channels).

guyzgirl:
I see the cut, which is small but reasonable, as they have to manage the easing. But what I find more hampering is the new 75% CRR on government deposits, that is really going to squeeze banks and impact their willingness to cut rates as well.

75% on non TSA public funds e.g MDA’s who are not part of the TSA system. The banks would rather hesitate to collect those Government funds from the MDA’s from now on which would likely drive the MDA’s towards TSA adoption.
Aside that, CRR was actually reduced to 45% not increased.

Streetinvestor2:
How did u arrive at the real value of naira to dollars if the street price than was the real value to me because that one was not being subsidized. That is the 700 plus.The present 1500 is as a result of failed governance and never the real price to me.even as subsidy is removed. The aboki selling 700 plus was not getting it from government then so it was not subsidized

The aboki selling at 700 was getting it from Government indirectly because the market is interconnected. Emiefele releases dollars to banks and sets his own rate by not allowing it get above a certain band say 450/460.

The banks cooperate with the abokis by offloading the dollars to them via round tripping to get their own cuts. The Aboki market becomes the main market indirectly funded by the official market and other sources. When you remove the peg from the official market and the indirect funding is cut off, there is a tendency for the black market to shoot up further showing there’s scarcity.

Take the usual fuel scarcity for instance. Many of the black market sellers still get fuel mainly from the filling stations in times of scarcity to sell higher. If filling stations increase their prices to match that of the black market, that of the black market would go up again until real supply comes into the market (filling stations).

The black market would keep going up in times of scarcity, because at that point, the filling stations (official market) alone cannot satisfy everyone.

The black market was only meant for villages initially and they source from anywhere but majorly filling stations. But now there is scarcity at filling stations and black market is expected to satisfy more people than they did previously so their prices would be inflated.

Filling stations then increase their prices so the market doesn’t drain them off the little they have. Then those who still queued at filling stations to get fuel because it’s cheaper, finally give up and all go to the black market.
This puts more pressure on the black market and their prices gets hiked again away from that new price of filling stations and it goes on and on and on until supply comes.

chimex38:
Update.
Your $45bn minimum year end target still on point.

Hopefully 😊. Although they have lots of maturities in Q4 2025 especially a Eurobond maturity payment.

Gross external reserves $43 Billion already in CBN’s book.

14 banks have fully met the new capital requirements.

50 bps cut. Cardoso, na man you be.

@awesomeJ you were spot on.

awesomeJ:
But Emefiele's LDR policy hasn't been squashed now has it?

650 bps cut with CRR at 35% helps both the economy and the banks.

I think what CBN is also considering is FAAC. This FAAC has always been an issue to the CBN even from the time of Soludo but they tame it via money instruments.

We are now sharing FAAC of over 2 trillion naira every month and a lot of these settle in banks because lots of state Governors use private banks unlike the FG who uses CBN.

The 50% CRR is to absorb this monthly until our growth rate becomes good enough to absorb the flow and inflation gets below 10%. We are coming from an era where we printed 23 trillion naira and now we have increased naira FAAC almost fourfold.

The CBN needs to keep removing as much naira from the system and destroying them (ie not redeploying them to the system by giving them to FG to spend again).

Taiwo Oyedele has advised we share FAAC daily to solve this problem because it’s always been an headache to CBN but even more with increased FAAC.

I believe the 50% would be reduced to 25% soon but I get your point that if we are applying 50% CRR then we don’t need necessarily high interest rates to control money supply and inflation.

awesomeJ:
Let them sha cut tomorrow.

If not, I'll visit FedralHighCourt.

If they don’t cut tomorrow then they would cut at the next meeting. I suspect a 25 bps cut but I wouldn’t be surprised if they hold.

ojesymsym:
Morgan has one feature that they do not have, Morgan gives you an immediate estimate of the total cost when you input quantity and price, Stanbic does not however Stanbic allows you to select the duration of days you want your limit price to last, to the best of my knowledge, Morgan will cancel all pending order at the end of the trading day, which means you have to refill an order the next day if it was not fulfilled that day.

In all, they all have their uses. Stanbic is where I do my compounding, because the investment there are mostly from dividends or gains so I tend to indulge more with the dividends that come that secondary income unlike the primary dividend that the first right is for it to be invested.

Morgan is similar to cardinal stone then. For me, I use cardinal stone primarily (especially for equities) then cowry for other investments because the fees on the cowry app for the stock market are way too expensive.

ajalawole:
hope bank monitor btc too

FG is working on taxes from crypto. Even at that, you can’t spend btc in Nigeria, you would still need naira.

Truths9ja:
The extravagant lifestyles of Yahoo guys and girls living in our society is highly bad. Unfortunately they keep on increasing in this criminal acts every day.

This is why this new tax law is supported by me. From January, banks have the liberty to report large transactions to FIRS and people would be given the opportunity to file a tax return and explain. No hiding place for yahoo boys not even crypto can help them because FG is also working on heavy crypto regulation.

ositadima1:
"the principle of compounding is at the core of all inflation analysis. . Economists and policymakers understand that the cumulative effect of rising prices over time is what truly erodes purchasing power."

I assume you’re a stakeholder in the government, probably heading some arm of it. Try to be broad-minded—there’s no cause for celebration here, for the reasons I outlined in my previous post.

Again, I fail to see how your quote counters the fact that inflation rate YOY is dropping and that’s what is measured.

No one is celebrating, just stating facts because it could have been worse. Take a look at what’s happening with Milei’s reforms in Argentina today.

I wish I am a stakeholder in the Government though heading an agency.

No one is celebrating at the moment, we just measuring progress and stating facts as they are now

ositadima1:
You’re trying to sound smart, but your arguments don’t hold up under closer scrutiny. Yes, inflation measures the rate of change in the cost of goods and services, not how far prices have already risen. The problem is that ordinary people feel the compounded effect. Telling them that the rate of increase has slowed down means nothing to someone now paying twice—or even three times—for the same plate of food they bought less than two years ago.

What truly matters to the average person is the compounded inflation over the past two years. Tinubu’s policies drove inflation up astronomically (I’m convinced it was much higher than the 27% reported last year), and now the government is claiming success simply because the pace of increase has slowed. That’s like a doctor taking credit for a patient’s recovery from symptoms caused by the very medication they prescribed in the first place.

Once again, the compounded inflation since Tinubu’s administration began is massive—if not the highest in Nigeria’s history.

I fail to see how your argument counters mine. The NBS and statistical bodies all over the world do not measure compounded rate of inflation from 2 years ago. They simply measure inflation rate year on year and month on month.

jonnysessy:
I love your sarcasm 😄😁😆😅🤣🤣🤣.
Even your moniker makes me laugh till tears started coming out of my eye . Where have you been all this while because this my first time of seeing this Moniker ( not that am old on this thread o)
I wonder how government comes out with inflation figures ( i am science inclined not an economist). You need to visit the market to know that there is no significant change in all these data rolled out.

Can you give me 5 items in the market you bought as at last month or December last year that has had high price increases (more than 30%) from what they were? If you can, then I’ll admit.

tpain121:
No o. It should be 1% .
15-18 percent is still too high.

Have you been to the market today? Items have reduced drastically.

I know this is sarcasm but inflation rate reduction doesn’t mean prices are not rising but they are rising at a slower rate compared to last year. Give me 5 items (any item) that have risen very fast compared to last month if you can. This time last year, I am sure you could easily mention more than 10 of such items.

Inflation should even be less than 20% now. The reasons we still have it this high are due to stuff like rent/real estate prices which are up by more than 40% in places like Lagos compared to 2024 and then restaurants still have their items increasing with a rate of increase above 20% YOY. Basic food in the market and perishable goods (which are 44% of the total basket) from my view have only slightly increased since September 2024.
Some have reduced, others stable. Fuel at this time last year was 865/900 and it’s around thesame price today. Inflation rate should be around 15% - 18% to end this year.

Raider76:
Not sure the European refiners have anything to do with the 66m liters per day. It was just a fraudulent inflation done by the importers, in collaborarion with NNPC officials, politicians, and labor unions to siphon money from the government and the consumers, through a manipulation of the subsidy system. Unfortunately this arrangement has operated for so long that huge investments have been made in the form of large tank farms, port facilities, transportation trucks, filling stations, blending facilities abroad, and so on.

The government should have foreseen the coming to reality of the Dangote Refinery and start to plan for a new system. The government must still come in and buy off the port and tankfarm infrastructure of the importers and convert them into a strategic fuel reserve syatem, along with the existing fuel depots of the NNPC. This will allow the private sector refining industry to develop and fully remove government hands from refining. Funds to purchase fuel importers tankfarms can be raised through the sale of the government's refineries and/or listing the NNPCL on the NGX and raising funds by selling off government shares.

NNPC was doing crude swap close to 400k bpd of crude with European refineries to get just PMS (if I remember correctly).

So I think they were involved. Now they are running under capacity because they no longer have to produce such huge volumes for West Africa anymore and a refinery is something that goes under after some time when it can’t supply to capacity like before. It starts running at a loss because it would then start requiring some level of maintenance constantly.

This is not the only reason European refineries are shutting down though. The main reason is that most are old but this is one of the reason.

Agbalowomeri:
Has Nigeria totally stopped PMS importation?

No just reduced.

awesomeJ:
And Alhaji said they're making adjustments to turn it to a 700k bpd facility by next year.

Those European refiners were consistently supplying a phantom 66 million litres per day PMS to Nigeria in 2022, paid for through debt and about 400k bpd crude oil swap by NNPC to them. From the 66 million litres per day PMS supplied, some were sold to Niger, Benin, Togo, Cameroon and even as far as Ghana and Senegal.

Those guys were making a killing from our stupidity.

The situation in 2022 was so sad because due to this we couldn’t even benefit from the high oil prices in 2022 (due to Russia- Ukraine war) while Angola and other oil countries swelled with oil money.

Dangote at 700k bpd capacity saves us a lot by meeting our true consumption which is around 40 million litres per day and exporting the rest because they would still have about 20 million litres per day left over to export.

awesomeJ:
@GeneralDae,

True FX gains were huge contributors in 2024.

Now beyond 2024, that shift in currency value has also translated to gross assets doubling or tripping for some of the banks in the past 2 years.


So if Access has 13trn to work with in 2023, now that their assets have grown to near 40trn, it's easier to make more money.

My point is the effect of the FX isn't just the one off gains, it's also translated to higher asset base, so if they maintain the same average ROAE or even a lower ROAE, they'll still be making so much cos the A has ballooned.

True and once this whole forbearance issue is put behind us (for the most part) we would have fundamentally stronger banks. I also think this recapitalisation process that has occurred side by side the devaluation, would yield more pros than cons for the Banks.

Streetinvestor2:
So bank results for H1 is bad in some people eyes.I guess u expected the banks to perform miracle with the new OS. Or u expected them to print naira. Are this banks not in the Nigerian economic space. U didn't thank God they didn't declare loss with this bad government when many SME which are thr customers are closing shop.
Is it not Nigerians facing hunger and poverty that this banks make money by rendering services and products. If u are a business man u will know how ur turnover that use to hit this banks have significantly dropped. The banks made money last Yr the government cornered it and insisted they must raise new funds not minding the dilution it could cause for bank.The bank results is a reflection of the Nigerian economy.
The loss in some bank will reverse next week because thr results are very ok.infact I was expecting dividend only from zenith, gtb and stanbic

The banks are really trying to be honest. Most of the profits they made in 2023 and 2024 were to an extent due to devaluation but no devaluation between 2024 and 2025 with same CRR of 50% and other conditions, but they are still making profits.

For Champions Brewery investors.

UBA doesn’t deserve this. Their H1 2025 report is good. I also wonder why Zenith is being punished.

MTN Nigeria to lease 5MHz (900MHz) + 15MHz (1800MHz) spectrum from T2 Mobile (9Mobile) for 3 yrs, effective Oct 1, 2025. This supports national roaming, boosts capacity, and drives digital inclusion. Existing Ntel lease ends Nov 29, 2025.

emmanuelewumi:
Who is the minister of petroleum?

I am sure those agencies report to the minister of petroleum.


Oga at the top does not do right fights, he sends his foot soldiers to do the fight

He will then come in to settle the fight purported started by him low key.

Dangote refinery is of immense help to Tinubu’s Government and he knows it. There is no reason he would want to frustrate it. It would also have been foolish to ban imports outrightly in such a sector as the energy sector.
When it comes to supporting Dangote currently, Tinubu’s Government is doing a lot and this is why importers are crying. Infact I know a special adviser to the Government who revealed that this CNG scheme of Dangote is backed by Tinubu who is collaborating with him via the Government agencies even though Dangote is the one doing the spending.

Streetinvestor2:
Oga make u no dey say some kind things because Tinubu is involved. These decisions u mentioned are major things that affects the country and can not be done or allowed without the knowledge of the president. The 4% tax was not the decisions of custom.It came from ministry of finance .The suspension is equally from the ministry

Oga crude oil matter/ petroleum importation/subsidized dollars for it is not small contract for it to ever happen without the president knowledge unless u are saying the president is incapacitated. I hope u know for sometimes now the president has equally been the minister of petroleum even in the past governments
In the past it is the president table that everything lands.Now with Tinubu the narrative has changed. Thr is always the fall guy but never him.
David umehi generation unborn will tell ur stories as the fall guy..lol

Customs were mainly influenced by NASS who increased their target and they have been insisting on this new fees for a while saying the cost of their operations have increased and many things have to be maintained. I cannot say I am certain Tinubu didn’t see it, but I look out for his reaction more. If Tinubu wanted it, complaints and mummuring alone would not make him reverse it. You may be right that it came to his desk and was approved initially by him. I cannot prove or disprove that.

As for the crude oil and Dangote matter, there was a lot of propaganda involved in it. NNPC didn’t sell crude as agreed because crude production had dropped drastically as at 2023/2024 and they couldn’t fulfill their side of the bargain. Between 2020 and 2022, lots of forward sales were also done. NNPC disappointed Dangote due to these reasons coupled with the fact that the refinery was at the pre commissioning stage and it was a time Dangote needed easy/quick crude for testing but it was also a time where our production was low and we had forex shortages and lots of forward sales. NNPC couldn’t just give Dangote all he needed for pre commissioning at that time (making little profits) and hence they scaled back ownership from 20% to 7.2%.

From the view of Dangote, this was disappointing and rightly so because he then had to spend to import crude at that stage.
When Dangote was complaining, these were the things he was complaining about in the case of NNPC.
Then when he spoke about Malta, opposition twisted it to point at Tinubu with no evidence but the fight was against big oil importers. Also, it would have been foolish for Tinubu to clearly take sides then by banning imports at that early stage.

When NMPDRA spoke saying they couldn’t determine the Dangote fuel quality or it not yet been ready, you cannot automatically say that was Tinubu speaking. Yes, Tinubu would not ban imports but to believe he told NMPDRA boss to give that speech as the excuse would be far too simplistic.

Summary: Was Tinubu against import ban? Yes. Does that mean Dangote was attacking Tinubu for that? No. He was attacking the marketers like DAPPMANN whom he calls the cabal. Tinubu doesn’t need to ban imports for him to take over the market but where the cabals try to restrict him from doing that, is where he fights (note the difference). Is Tinubu or Oando allowing imports because of Malta blending plant? No. Because no evidence links Malta imports to Oando or Tinubu but rather to another businessman who gave Buhari $1.5 Billion in 2020 in one of those forward sales.
So me I’m all for facts and the evidence and as investors, I’m sure this is the opportunity to learn. If I’m wrong on any of these points, I would gladly take it back.

Every quarrel a private investor has with a Government agency like NNPC or NMPDRA ( not a minister in this case) does not necessarily mean the president is automatically giving the agency orders at that point.

For example, customs on their own imposed a 4% FOB charge on imports. We could easily count it as a Tinubu policy because of course he is the president, right? But I never supported the policy or defended it because it goes against the spirit of the new tax laws and what Tinubu himself preaches about taxes. That we try to reduce the tax as much as possible but rather spread the tax net (expand). Now Tinubu through his minister told customs to suspend it.

Same thing with this Dangote matter. Tinubu has eventually removed Mele Kyari and the new NNPC boss is more friendly to Dangote. There is also the naira for crude policy.
CNG imports are also duty free all round which now makes import and investments in large scale CNG trucks tempting.

Streetinvestor2:
So the enemy of ur enemy is ur enemy. I now see why u only post political related things. I was thinking it was for real knowledge purposes. I never see ur post on the stock business

Lol. It’s for knowledge purposes and I do post about the stock market. I even did today.
I hardly post on individual Nigerian stocks because I am only invested in a few (mostly the well known firms) for now at least.

crownprince2017:
So kyari was working for tinubu, was removed by same tinubu n been probed by same tinubu. Haba, stop these ABA lies na...

The same dangote that hudeyin your brother dragged that time, , your people called him monopoly that government favours only him.

People can change narrative once they discovered there talk cannot longer bring you down.

If Tinubu had immediately banned imports and stood behind Dangote, they would still say Tinubu is giving Dangote monopoly. The major reason Hundyin and the opposition started supporting Dangote in 2024 was that they interpreted his outburst on July 2024 against NMPDRA and DAPPMANN to be all about Tinubu 😆. So they thought Dangote was fighting Tinubu and the enemy of my enemy is my friend 🤣

Streetinvestor2:
This are small union guys
When nnpc was fighting him it was not ordinary. If not that Nigerians started speaking out it won't have been easy.You saw how they quickly packaged ph refinery to be producing. When obj said it was not working. They came for his head.I believed everything calmed down because some agreement was reached with oga at the top behind closed doors to only few ears.Since then alhaji has been hyping the government doings .This is naija we sabi watin dey.kyari was not working for himself

So why do you think the presidency would be against the smooth functioning of the refinery?