Ghm's Posts
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ghm:This is the deeper point. The states are drowning in cash from FAAC, but they have very few of the "heavy lifting" responsibilities. Defence, foreign affairs, monetary policy, and major infrastructure are federal. The states are left with education, healthcare, roads, and local services—and even those are often poorly delivered. So what happens? Governors become mini-emperors. They control huge monthly allocations, they decide how much (or how little) reaches the Local Government Areas, and they face little accountability because the public's eyes are fixed on Aso Rock. The FG takes the blame for everything. The governors take the money and build political war chests. And here is the uncomfortable reality: while the FG made the policies, the people are living in the states. The World Bank reports that 129 million Nigerians are living below the national poverty line. The North-West and North-East have the highest severe poverty rates—Kebbi at 52.7%, Jigawa at 52.0%, Sokoto at 51.4%, Bauchi at 50.8%. These are state-level outcomes. The governors are receiving record allocations and the poverty is concentrated in their domains. What you then see is that governors now have presidential or senatorial ambition. A governor with a massive FAAC allocation, control over state media, and the ability to fund patronage networks has a ready-made platform for a presidential run. The current system rewards that. This is why the "where are the subsidy savings?" question is misdirected. The money went to the states. The question should be: what are the states doing with it to alleviate the plight of the people? Because the people living in those states are the ones bearing the poverty. Until we start holding governors to the same standard we hold the President, nothing changes. The center cannot carry all the blame while the states carry all the cash. |
crownprince2017:Thank you for sharing. No matter how many times this is explained, people remain stuck in their misbeliefs, even supposedly educated and enlightened ones. Take the "where are the subsidy savings?" question. It reflects a misunderstanding of how the Federation Account works. Subsidy was paid from the FAAC pool before distribution. When subsidy was removed, that money stayed in the FAAC. FAAC has a strict constitutional distribution formula. So the money went to all three tiers. The evidence is clear: Total FAAC disbursements rose from N10.09tn in 2023 to N15.26tn in 2024, then N21.90tn in 2025 . State allocations rose from N3.58tn to N5.81tn in the same period . Nasarawa's Governor Sule said his state's monthly allocation rose from N3.8bn–N4.5bn to N14bn–N16bn . Governors themselves confirmed they are getting more. Yet Nigerians still ask the President where the savings went. The real question is not "where are the savings?" It is "what are the states (which also collects for the LGAs) and the FG doing with the increased allocations?" That is where the accountability gap lies. That is why I believe that Nigeria will move forward faster when we seek to understand how things work, be less partisan and hold everyone accountable. |
mikeapollo:Access Bank? I wish. That one pass me. But never say never. Let's be honest—Access is not an interim dividend play right now. The CBN is withholding approval because of a capital breach (foreign subsidiary exposure at 19.3% instead of the 10% limit). Management has until May 2027 to fix it, but so far, no concrete divestment or restructuring has landed. Until they fix it, no interim dividend. And before you accuse me of "deliberate wickedness"—we are in the same ship together. Access is my largest holding by number of units. So if I am omitting it, I am omitting myself. It is not wickedness, just facts. If Access fixes the breach and declares an interim dividend, I will add it myself. |
Imminent Dividend Play
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My Buy consideration today.
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megawealth01:Sir, I am not pointing at you specifically, but some of us do this—and we even do it to ourselves. Beyond our right to free expression, we should all hold ourselves to the standard we discussed: name the policy, measure the outcome, and leave the insults out.. |
GeneralDae:Thanks. These are ideas introduced by the policies, they are worth discussing. Well done. |
megawealth01:Sir, agreed, we cannot discuss this without mentioning names. But we can mention names while separating personalities from their actions. "Tinubu removed the subsidy." That is a fact. We can then ask: what has it done to transport costs, food prices, and small businesses? Has the savings gone to palliatives and infrastructure, or disappeared into the fiscal void? "Tinubu liberalised the FX market." That is also a fact. We can ask: has the naira stabilised enough to attract investment, or has it deepened the cost-of-living crisis? Naming the person is not the problem. Replacing analysis with name-calling is. Calling someone a "drugie" or "fraudster" tells us nothing about the policy, the outcome, or the alternative. It only tells us about the person saying it. There is a difference between naming an actor and attacking them. "Tinubu removed the subsidy" is a factual statement. "Tinubu is a drugie" is an insult that shuts down conversation. And the hypocrisy is glaring: the same people who call one leader a fraudster call another a saint using the same logic. The standard is not the action. It is the affiliation. Name the policy. Name the outcome. Name the cost. Leave the insults out. They add nothing. |
mikeapollo:If you ask me, the Oando issue is a today's issue. It is an anomaly in the sector. That is why it is one of the most discussed here. Yes, Oando is exactly the kind of idea worth discussing—because it forces us to ask uncomfortable questions about execution, not just potential. The N500 billion capital raise was approved by shareholders at the AGM in September 2026. The N220 billion rights issue (4.4 billion shares at N50) was filed with the NGX in February 2026. It has been pending regulatory approval for eight months. So the "idea" here is not "Oando will fix its balance sheet." The idea is: how long does a company with negative equity get to keep a capital raise pending before the market loses patience? The OODP guarantee expires March 2027. If the rights issue is not approved and completed before then, the guarantee lapses and the company is exposed. The market is already voting. The stock trades around N35—below the N50 rights price. That means investors are telling you they do not believe the raise will happen at that price. If it does happen, it will be because OODP absorbs the shortfall, which concentrates ownership further. So yes, let's discuss the idea. The idea is not "Oando is a buy." The idea is "what does the market's discount tell us about execution risk?" That is a useful idea. |
"Small minds discuss people. Average minds discuss events. Great minds discuss ideas." — Often attributed to Eleanor Roosevelt What ideas are out in the NGX today? Dangote Refinery: The idea that Nigeria can refine its own crude, stabilize FX, and democratize ownership. It raised N2.15 trillion at N525 per share, with a minimum of N5,250—explicitly designed for the masses. Insurance: The recapitalization story. The NIIRA 2025 set a July 2026 deadline. The NGX Insurance Index returned 65.64% in 2025, and stocks that traded at kobo for years are now real sector plays. Oando: The balance sheet repair story. N500 billion capital raise approved, rights issue filed, 40-50 kboepd exit guidance reiterated. ![]() FTSE Frontiers: The reclassification story. 30 Nigerian companies entered the FTSE Frontier Index on September 21, 2026, after three years as Unclassified. 2027 Election: The policy continuity story. Analysts assess an APC victory as the "lowest-disruption scenario" for markets, sustaining FX liberalisation and fiscal consolidation. Interim Dividends: The income story. Zenith just proposed N1.50 per share, up from N1.25, with the stock up 118% YTD. The "Lifetime Investor" is dead: You invest with an exit target and divest when the target is reached. Investing as a career: The idea that you can build a professional life around capital allocation, research, and portfolio management—not just as a side hustle, but as a discipline. Family Office: The idea that wealth can be structured, preserved, and transferred across generations through a dedicated investment vehicle. This is not just for billionaires. It is a framework for anyone serious about multi-generational wealth. What ideas are in the pipeline? NNPCL Listing: Committed to reforming and listing NNPC on the NGX—a potential mega-listing that would deepen the market and broaden ownership. NLNG Listing: The rumoured multi-billion dollar listing that could redefine the exchange's market capitalization. OPay Listing: A fintech listing that would signal the tech ecosystem's migration to the public markets. National Savings Scheme: A new vehicle for education, housing, business, and retirement with tax incentives. Capital Market Master Plan 2.0: N750 trillion market cap by 2036. Equities market cap from 33% of GDP to 60%. Investment-grade rating within three years. These are ideas. Not people. Not events. Ideas. That is what this forum should be discussing. |
megawealth01:To Oga Megawealth01 and others, If you are not partisan or a politician, nobody expects you to defend or criticise any administration here. We are here to analyse policies and bring out reasons to invest or not invest in a particular sector or company. But instead, we turned the thread into emotional whining, activism, blackmailing one another, and descending into nepotism, ethnicity, and partisan politics. Our discussions here should be politically neutral and colourless. That is what I meant when I said we have a major issue as Nigerians: we cannot stand deep and meaningful discussion and argument without descending into nepotism, ethnicity, partisan politics—and worse still, blackmail. NB: By blackmail, I mean, for example, if you say a government policy is good, they will say it is because you are APC or from the President's region. If you say the policy is bad, they will say you are from opposition party or another region, etc. |
Stockpromoter:You sound so convincing Sir. Let me use some units to test. |
PETERiCHY:So, what do we do in the 7 years of bull? or What would Joseph do if he is in similar situation? Pls advise. |
codedguy1:Humm, it depends from which side you are seeing it. On electricity, for example: Do you know that any time I see people talk about power as an excuse, I usually wonder—because I have seen this situation for over 40 years. The first time I was going for internship in Lagos and walked through VI, I was surprised to see that all banks and businesses were using big soundproof generators. They didn't complain about power; they focused on their businesses and made everything needed available. Those banks have grown excellently since then. The same with my barber—when NEPA goes out, he gets his generator. He has done excellently for himself and his family. So are supermarkets, so are many businesses—tailors, hairdressers, corner shops, restaurants, filling stations, etc., in the country. I believe you get what I am saying. Fill the gap, please. |
mikeapollo:Humm, education time: Do you know what will happen in Europe and Asia if the government says the people should use gas instead of fuel? The citizens and private sector will immediately set up businesses to convert and refill and all other associated businesses will spring up—and you will see it in every part of the country. It will not be the government doing the conversion; it will be private companies. I have seen a direct example in the EV policy in Europe. Power companies, tech companies, fuel stations, supermarkets, etc., moved on to start setting up charging stations. You hardly see any belonging to the government—but citizen-owned companies dive in and earn from it. They make so much money doing it, create a lot of jobs from it, and the whole nation gradually moves toward the government's target. Compare this to Nigeria and let me hear you. |
Gingerly:The major problem I have seen in Nigeria is this: Nigerians always think that the development in other countries is done solely by the government. Even though governments create policies and enabling environments, it is the citizens who do the work—and their country takes the glory for it. Take cocoa as an example. Individuals set up businesses in the US that use cocoa as raw material. They import cocoa from Nigeria into the US for their factories. They become rich, pay taxes, and the government earns from it too. So, Nigerians should not expect the government to be the one to set up cocoa processing plants that will convert cocoa into chocolate. Nigerians—not the government—should set that up. Snatch all the cocoa, use it locally, convert it to chocolate, and export finished products to the world, earning a much more decent income for themselves and the country. A good example is Dangote's refinery. He built it, built his own power, built his ports, produced refined products, and exported jet fuel to Europe—earning massively from it. Nigeria became a net exporter of petroleum products to Europe since April. That was not government. In fact, the government's four refineries were not able to do that in their lifetime of existence. I wish Nigerians would get this. |
anonimi:Non-oil tax revenue refers to all tax income collected by the government that does not come from the extraction or sale of crude oil. It is the primary driver of Nigeria's domestic revenue mobilisation, now accounting for over 70% of total tax collections as the country reduces its historical dependence on oil. List of Non-Oil Tax Revenue Sources Company Income Tax (CIT): Tax on the profits of companies. It is the single largest non-oil revenue driver, contributing N1.660 trillion in Q2 2026 alone . Value Added Tax (VAT): A consumption tax on goods and services, contributing N2.023 trillion in Q2 2026 . Customs & Excise Duties: Taxes on imports and specific goods, generating N1.001 trillion in Q2 2026 . Development Levy: A new unified 4% levy on company profits (replacing several older levies), projected to contribute N1.9 trillion in 2026 . Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL): A levy on electronic transactions . Education Tax (TETFUND): A levy on companies to fund education . Special Levies (Federation Account): Various statutory levies paid into the federation account . Nigerian Police Trust Fund (NPTF) Levy: A specific levy for the police trust fund . Minerals & Mining Revenue: Royalties and taxes from solid mineral extraction . Independent Revenue: Internally generated revenue by government agencies . For commodities exports like cocoa, cashew, sesame etc, the government collects export duties or customs and excise duties. The merchants get the money for their products. For example, if these duties are 19%, the merchants pay the government 19% and keep the rest as the value for their goods and services. |
anonimi:Oga, That is just a trade figure. It is not money that goes to the government. The money comes into Nigeria through the transaction and goes directly to hardworking individuals—farmers who planted the cocoa, processors who processed it for export, and shippers who sent it to the USA. That is a real value chain of people earning income, not government coffers. The government only collects taxes and duties on it. We need a lot of education here. Not just rising up to blame the government for everything while some wise Nigerians are cashing out from the same value chain. The narrative that "government is getting all the money" ignores the role of the private sector and the everyday people like you and me that are actually doing the work and earning decently. |
HesInMe:Good point, but.... I hear you. "Keep throwing them out until we win the statistical lottery" is a coherent position. It assumes that turnover itself creates pressure for better governance. That is not crazy. But let me ask a different question: in a democracy, what choices do you actually have? The incumbent or his successor will come out of the same populace. The outcome is determined by the values of that populace. If the majority values ethnic loyalty over competence, you get leaders chosen for ethnic loyalty. If the majority values cash over character, you get leaders who buy votes. You only need enough people who vote for the wrong reasons to produce the wrong leaders. That is the mathematics of democracy. So the problem is not just the leader. It is the selection pool and the values that shape it. Now to your lottery point: you don't win a lottery by buying more tickets. You win by knowing which numbers to play. Throwing people out without a framework for what replaces them is how you get motion without movement. GEJ was thrown out. Buhari came in. Buhari was thrown out. Tinubu came in. The structure stayed the same. The incentives stayed the same. The outcomes stayed the same. A pool of 250 million is not an argument for rotation. It is an argument for recruitment. Where is the pipeline? Where are the tested, competent people being prepared for leadership? I am not saying "no messiah." I am saying no mechanism. Rotation without selection criteria is musical chairs. The music stops, someone else sits down, and the game continues. If you want to throw them out, fine. But tell me what you are throwing them into. What is the alternative structure? What are the standards? Otherwise, we are not playing the lottery. We are just spinning the wheel. |
Streetinvestor2:Some people are stuck in 2012. So Tinubu protested a policy in 2012 and later implemented it. That is called changing your mind. It happens. The Ojota protest was legitimate then. Tinubu had every right to oppose a policy he believed was wrong. I was against fuel subsidy removal too—I wanted them to remove the corruption in fuel subsidy first. By 2014, it became obvious that the corruption in fuel subsidy could not be removed. NNPC failed consistently on cash calls. The PIB/PIA was stalled. Our oil and gas sector had become a joke worldwide. That is when I concluded: subsidy must go in full for Nigeria to breathe. And to the person suggesting GEJ should have jailed the protesters—that is not a defence of the policy. That is an argument for authoritarianism. Arresting people who disagree with you is not democracy. GEJ did not jail Tinubu then. That was democracy working. Let the past be the past. Let us manage the current situation. It is what it is. |
mikeapollo:The NGX does not run in a vacuum. It runs within a legal and regulatory environment that government controls. The question isn't whether government should have a plan. It's whether the plan is good. Dismissing the whole thing without reading it is not analysis—it's noise. The SEC's Capital Market Master Plan was initially launched in 2014 and has been reviewed and updated through 2025. It is not a new invention by this administration. It has gone through extensive stakeholder consultation and public hearings. The plan's targets are specific and measurable. It aims to raise N150 trillion in capital for infrastructure by 2035, expand retail investor accounts from 7.5 million to 15 million, and increase the market's annual turn-over ratio from 10% to 50%. It also proposes strengthening the SEC's enforcement powers and increasing capital limits for Trading License Holders. |
megawealth01:Great recommendation and thanks for sharing. However, "Good man" and "good governor" are two different things. I am sure he is a good man. Your friend grew up with him. He knows the personal side. But personal decency is not the job description. The job is delivering on policy, infrastructure, and governance for Lagos. Many good men did not give good governance—and even a Goodluck did not bring all-round good luck in governance. And to be fair, his record is not thin. He has been in governance for over two decades: 2005–2011: Commissioner for Science and Technology, Lagos State 2011–2015: Commissioner for Works and Infrastructure, Lagos State 2015: Special Adviser (Technical) to the Minister of Works, Power and Housing 2019–present: Deputy Governor of Lagos State That is not a man who just appeared. That is a career in public service. He resigned from his federal role in September 2018 to contest the Lagos gubernatorial primary, lost the primary ticket, and then accepted the running mate position. Many politicians would have left the party or sabotaged the ticket. He stayed. So when people say "he is a good man," ask: what has that goodness delivered for Lagos? And also: what has his two decades in governance prepared him to deliver next? That is the question. |
Streetinvestor2:Go through HISA (former Chaka), Trove or Bamboo |
megawealth01:Did he tell his pastor that his $1,000 worth of crypto in 2022 was N433K and the same $1000 crypto today is N1.33 million? |
pluto09:Don't mind them. This is part of what we have been saying. Let's say things went south because of this administration—they did what all of us have been asking them to do for a long time. It is lame for anyone to think that simply bringing in another person will change things without mentioning the plans that person will bring and what they will do differently. And when you ask them, they start cursing and calling you names. |
dre11:All these energy would have served him better if he use them to promotr his party and his aspirant, Tinubu this, Tinubu that everytime, that is why Nigerians won't take him serious. |
TRUTHaDDICTED:You just rewrote history. How did Osinbajo pulled back? |
SonofElElyonRet:I don't deceive myself or live in illusions. Whatever the baggage , constitutionally, he is the VP and first in line in succession planning. |
mikeapollo:Anyone of them can become president—yes. And if Tinubu were to die, the VP, Shettima, becomes President. And honestly? He strikes me as sharper than the popular two. He is a former banker. He speaks intelligently at international forums. He understands the economy. The VP slot matters. It is not a spare tyre. It is a succession plan. So when we say "anyone can become president," let's include the person who actually would—and assess him on his own merits. |
Whois:Mature people don't body-shame. Full stop. That picture and caption are not funny. They are cruel. They punch down at someone's appearance for entertainment, and they normalise an attitude that causes real harm—especially to young people who already struggle with body image. Please take it down. Not because I'm policing you, but because this forum is better than that. We debate ideas, policies, and investments. We don't mock people's bodies. Simple. |
