Ghm's Posts
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faoogoke:Salient point, you raised, here are my findings based on your post. Looking at Oando's footprint—the company's premises, events, management and staff, buildings, offices, cars, planes, etc.—you will see an extremely successful and affluent company, with no visible traces of a broken balance sheet. Oando is being kept afloat by a legal guarantee from its majority shareholder, an aggressive debt-restructuring plan, and the sheer scale of its assets. But that lifeline has an expiry date, and it is not a long-term solution. What's Keeping It Afloat Right Now 1. The OODP Letter of Guarantee The primary lifeline is a Letter of Guarantee from Ocean and Oil Development Partners (OODP), Oando's majority shareholder. It is valid from 25 March 2026 to 25 March 2027. It commits OODP to support Oando so it can meet its financial obligations as long as liabilities exceed assets. The critical caveat: the evidence of OODP's net worth backing this guarantee has not yet been independently verified . This is not a cash injection; it's a promise from a related party. 2. The Recapitalisation Plan Management has a three-part plan approved by shareholders: a N500 billion capital raise (first tranche N220 billion rights issue awaiting SEC approval), conversion of up to US$300 million** of Reserve-Based Lending debt into equity, and a **US$1.5 billion multi-instrument issuance programme . 3. Operational Cash Generation Oando is not dead operationally. H1 2026 production averaged 42,789 boepd, up 16%, with production opex down 18% to $16.83/boe . It ended H1 with N544.92 billion in cash . Operating profit was N127.84 billion, a turnaround from a loss . How Long Can It Keep "Selling Hope"? The honest answer: until March 2027, when the OODP guarantee expires. After that, the company's survival depends entirely on whether the recapitalisation plan succeeds. And there are serious doubts: Negative equity persists: Total equity was negative N530.45 billion at H1 2026 . Finance costs exceed operating profit: H1 2026 finance costs were N167.58 billion against operating profit of N127.84 billion . The company is not earning enough to cover its debt servicing. The "profit" is not from operations: N104.44 billion of operating profit came from other income and impairment reversals—not from selling oil or trading crude . Shareholder governance challenge: A shareholder has formally challenged the US$434.5 million receivable settlement and the proposed rights issue, raising questions about related-party transactions and dilution, with copies to the SEC and CAC . Could Seplat or Aradel Acquire Oando? This is speculative, but here's the context: Seplat is the largest indigenous producer, targeting 200,000 boepd by 2030, with net debt reduced to $370.7 million after repaying $200 million . It has the balance sheet and the operational credibility. Aradel ended H1 2026 with N1.72 trillion in cash, the largest of the three, and has been on an acquisition spree, consolidating ND Western and taking a majority stake in Renaissance Africa Energy. Oando's appeal: It holds the largest indigenous reserves and has completed the NAOC acquisition, adding significant Niger Delta acreage . An acquisition would be a massive undertaking, given Oando's N2.42 trillion enterprise value and N2.70 trillion in debt . But it would be a logical consolidation play for a cash-rich Aradel or a strategically ambitious Seplat. Bottom Line Oando is surviving on borrowed time and a shareholder guarantee. The operational turnaround is real—production is up, costs are down—but the balance sheet is still broken. The "hope" being sold is that the recapitalisation will fix it. The risk is that the March 2027 guarantee expiry arrives before the fix is complete. |
essentialone1:@essentialone1, What are you saying? Why do you call people short-term gamblers? These are recognised categories—globally. By Holding Period: Scalpers – seconds to minutes Day Traders – within a single session, no overnight positions Swing Traders – days to weeks Position Traders – weeks to months Investors – months to years By Strategy & Analysis: Momentum Traders – ride strong price trends Breakout Traders – enter when price breaks key levels Mean Reversion Traders – bet on price returning to average News-Based Traders – react to events and announcements Arbitrage Traders – profit from price differences across markets Technical Traders – use charts, patterns, indicators Fundamental Traders – analyse financials and economic conditions By Execution: Algorithmic (Algo) Traders – automated, rule-based execution Investment Styles: Growth Investing – companies expected to grow faster than market Value Investing – undervalued stocks relative to intrinsic worth Income Investing – prioritise dividends and cash flow Active vs. Passive – beat the market vs. match the market Different timeframes. Different disciplines. All legitimate. Don't reduce us to slurs. I have used most of the methods at one time or the other. Are you saying we whould delve into these 10? I have a special account for speculative plays and I am open to it and they can easily fit in. |
mikeapollo:I am confused. Can a company really influence its own share price? I think the market does that. I always thought they couldn't—except through the legal and acceptable ways: issuing more shares, reorganisation, buybacks, etc. |
Agbalowomeri:... and back to N30 |
naturalflow:Fair point. If you bought at the peak, selling now may lock in a loss or a smaller gain—that changes the calculation. But here's the thing: if you're holding a stock that's up 185% YTD and you need cash, the question isn't "did I buy at the top?" It's "what is my entry price and what is my current return?" If you're still in profit, selling a few units to meet your needs is rational. If you're at a loss, then the dividend question becomes more relevant—but you should also ask whether the stock still deserves your capital at all. And let's be clear: dividends are not sacrosanct these days. First HoldCo itself only issued its first positive ordinary dividend in three years after completing a capital raise in Q4 2025 . Even blue-chip names like GTCO cut their interim dividend to N1 per share this year . Dividend policies change with capital requirements and earnings. Don't hold a stock only for a dividend that may or may not come. The dividend obsession only makes sense if you're holding for income. If you're holding for capital appreciation and you need cash, selling is always an option—regardless of where you bought. |
mikeapollo:Fair point. If you bought at the peak, selling now may lock in a loss or a smaller gain—that changes the calculation. But here's the thing: if you're holding a stock that's up 185% YTD and you need cash, the question isn't "did I buy at the top?" It's "what is my entry price and what is my current return?" If you're still in profit, selling a few units to meet your needs is rational. If you're at a loss, then the dividend question becomes more relevant—but you should also ask whether the stock still deserves your capital at all. And let's be clear: dividends are not sacrosanct these days. First HoldCo itself only issued its first positive ordinary dividend in three years after completing a capital raise in Q4 2025 . Even blue-chip names like GTCO cut their interim dividend to N1 per share this year . Dividend policies change with capital requirements and earnings. Don't hold a stock only for a dividend that may or may not come. The dividend obsession only makes sense if you're holding for income. If you're holding for capital appreciation and you need cash, selling is always an option—regardless of where you bought. |
naturalflow:Why are you so fixated on dividends? First HoldCo is up approximately 185% year-to-date as of early August 2026 . The stock has nearly tripled this year alone. You can simply sell a few units (any % you want) and use the cash to meet your needs. That's the point of holding liquid stocks—you don't have to wait for a dividend to access value. |
National Voters Registration 2026 - Summary
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Itzlinda:DYOD
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Agbalowomeri:It is not just about price, fundamentals would have hinted you. See my initial similar response below: Sir, fair point—but we can't say everything in a single post. All filters are already applied. We are assuming fundamentals, market capitalisation, and EBITDA multiples have already been considered. That is the baseline. And when we say "most banks have rallied," we mean they have moved from where they were towards where they should be—the price has caught up with the fundamentals. Once that catch-up happens, the remaining percentage upside is smaller. The post was not a stock-picking tutorial. It was a specific observation about where the remaining upside lies among banks that have not yet rallied. If we have to restate every valuation metric before making a point, no one will ever make a point. The logic stands: lower-priced stocks that haven't rallied have more room to run in percentage terms. That is not a substitute for fundamentals—it is an additional filter on top of them. |
essentialone1:Sir, fair point—but we can't say everything in a single post. All filters are already applied. We are assuming fundamentals, market capitalisation, and EBITDA multiples have already been considered. That is the baseline. And when we say "most banks have rallied," we mean they have moved from where they were towards where they should be—the price has caught up with the fundamentals. Once that catch-up happens, the remaining percentage upside is smaller. The post was not a stock-picking tutorial. It was a specific observation about where the remaining upside lies among banks that have not yet rallied. If we have to restate every valuation metric before making a point, no one will ever make a point. The logic stands: lower-priced stocks that haven't rallied have more room to run in percentage terms. That is not a substitute for fundamentals—it is an additional filter on top of them. |
Agbalowomeri:The upside isn't in the banks that have already run. It's in the smaller-priced names: Fidelity, FCMB, UBA, Access Corp. Most banks have rallied. The fuel may be gone in percentage terms. The math is simple. A 100% gain on N20 takes it to N40. A 100% gain on N150 takes it to N300. Both are 100%. But the N20 stock only needs a N20 move to double. The N150 stock needs N150. Lower price = more room to run in percentage terms. |
GloriousGbola:Yeah. It didn't happen today—it started in 2026. He has lived 9 years in Lagos since the incidents. It is like everyone has moved on. My fear is for the wife and children. I pray misfortune has not befallen them. How can close family members be incommunicado for years—no word, no contact, no one who knew them together even hinting at their whereabouts? And with today's technology, social media, and a little investigative journalism, anyone can be found. Those who do not want to be found cannot hide for long. |
hahn:Because of bus stop? Nigerians do not wven know NIgeria. This country is a phenomenon, Nigeria has more than 100 of such bus stops across the country. |
essentialone1:Thanks for this. The question for me is: how low can it still go? It is already 30% down in my portfolio. That is very bad. I left it as a case of ""he that is down needs fear no fall." |
essentialone1:It is the only loser and worst performing stock in my portfolio, I have let it's fellow laggers go but it's potential didn't allow me to let it go. |
essentialone1:How did OandO escape this list? |
essentialone1:Only FirstHoldco Bank Plc Did we miss them on this forum? |
mikeapollo:That is the point we were making earlier about the leadership of Oando. There have been several industry events in the last few weeks, and the who-is-who in the oil industry are present—from International Oil Companies like Shell, ExxonMobil, Total, and Chevron, to Seplat, Aradel, Renaissance Energy, NLNG, and several other indigenous oil companies. There is no notable presence of Oando, despite the large reserves they own. The same thing will happen to deals. Notable money will flow to where the technical expertise is. Simple. |
yMcy56:I have subscribed for the IPO few days ago but more funds became available. Do you know if one can still put another entry or a top-up and how one can go about it? |
What's happening in Eternal, NPFMCRFBK, TRANSCOHOT, CMFC that we missed, they are all balling in the market. |
essentialone1:There are some heavy investors positioning in the oil sector for about 2 years now. You can see Tony Elumelu coming into SEPLAT. You can see major silent moves in ARADEL. But they are all avoiding OANDO. Why? Why are they avoiding Oando? Why are they not overlooking the book problem and positioning into the largest indigenous reserves? The answer is simple: Oando's problem is not cosmetic. It is existential. The auditors flagged a "material uncertainty related to going concern" in the FY2025 financial statements. The reasons are explicit: Recurring net liabilities (negative equity of N567 billion) Significant working capital deficiency Multiple loan defaults Exposure to enforcement of security over assets Uncertainty over management's funding plans The company is technically insolvent. Liabilities exceed assets. It is only operating because of a Letter of Guarantee from its majority shareholder—which has not been independently verified. The numbers tell the story: Total liabilities: N8.01 trillion Shareholders' equity: negative N567 billion Finance costs: N465 billion (nearly doubled from N236 billion) Operating cash flow: N32.3 billion (barely positive) And the earnings are not what they seem. Oando reported EPS of N30 for FY2025, but a forensic review found it was "optically strong but structurally weaker." The profit was driven by non-recurring finance income, tax credits, and impairment reversals. Core operations were weak: revenue declined 22%, and the company recorded a gross loss of N2.76 billion. Now look at the alternative: SEPLAT reduced net debt to $673 million, generated $1.17 billion in operating cash flow, and maintains a 40-50% dividend payout policy. ARADEL attracted an undisclosed buyer who paid N390 billion for a 15.92% stake, valuing it at N559.5 per share. Elumelu and that buyer are institutional investors. Their internal risk committees and fiduciary duties prevent them from investing in a company with negative equity, going concern warnings, multiple loan defaults, and earnings reliant on non-recurring items. It is not that they are overlooking Oando's book problem. The book problem disqualifies Oando from serious institutional investment. The reserves are real. But reserves only create value if they can be developed and monetized. Oando's debt burden means any cash flow generated must first service debt before it can fund development or return capital. Renaissance Capital's fair value of N123 per share is based on asset value. The market price of N34 reflects the debt discount. The gap is the market saying: "We see the reserves, but we don't trust the balance sheet to unlock them." Until Oando fixes its balance sheet, it remains a stock for speculators, not institutions. |
Stockpromoter:Sorry o, who is that guy that was sitting down and watching as Japaulgold deh park, I hope it is not the shareholders? |
kariacat:This was discussed extensively here. Each shareholder who keeps a minimum of 10 shares for 1 year will get 1 free share. Hold for 2 years and you get 2 free shares total. That is 10% value per annum—and 20% over the 2 years—for the minimum holder. The retail investor incentive is clear: it targets the 10 million everyday Nigerians—drivers, cooks, small traders. It encourages them to hold for at least 2 years. If you can afford 50 units or more, be thankful and look away. This is the people's IPO. As our Group Chairman said: we are looking forward to using stadiums for AGMs. On the other hand, do you think it will not be a massive dilution for a newly listed company that already has huge outstanding shares to be given 1:10 bonus 2 years in a row? |
Stockhunter:We have been through this so many times and here is my suggestion: Instead of spending energy policing people who digress into other topics, let's use that energy to generate relevant content—questions, perspectives, stock picks, NGX discussions. Kudos to those who share reports, information, weekly, daily perspectives on stocks to watch etc. I don't want to mention names. That will produce enough stock-related talk to keep the forum focused, and naturally dilute off-topic posts into extinction. And if you're not posting anything yourself, you don't get to complain about what others post—as if you're the one to decide for them. |
mikeapollo:Fair question. Let me address both directly. On the revenue claim: He said the revenue target was met in August. The Budget Office's own report shows federal revenue was N20.98 trillion against a N25.88 trillion target—a N4.9 trillion shortfall. The deficit hit N13.51 trillion, 47.3% above budget. Borrowing reached N12.62 trillion, exceeding the approved limit by N4.79 trillion. The data was not hidden until someone else flagged it. On Port Harcourt refinery: NNPC announced it had resumed production in November 2024. By May 2025 it was shut down for "maintenance." By February 2026 the NNPC CEO admitted the refineries were closed because they were "operating at significant losses." As of August 2026, the NMDPRA factsheet shows NNPC refineries remained non-operational. Dangote supplied 99.9% of domestic petrol receipts. Nigeria continued importing. On consistency: You asked if I apply the same standard. Yes. A public officeholder who claims targets are met when the budget office shows shortfalls, and announces a refinery delivered when it stops operating months later, has failed the standard of accurate public disclosure. That is not a demand for perfection. It is a demand for truthfulness about verifiable facts. Apply that rule to anyone—past, present, or future. Both the FM and NNPC CEO admitted without personal interpretations. We shouldn't live in a place where we see some people as very bad because they made a full disclosure about failures, debts, deficits, and liabilities and admitted when challenged—and see others as good while they removed failures, debts, deficits and liabilities from their claims and still refuse to admit when challenged, giving personal interpretation instead. |
Streetinvestor2:Let me clarify the 12 years I have been mentioning. He was governor for 8 years and left in 2014. From 2014 till now (2026) is 12 years. He has been citing the handover note since then, claiming he never borrowed and that the state was debt-free under him. 2014–2026 is the 12 years—not that he was governor for 12 years. I have studied the handover note and the figures, and have used them in many discussions. Whenever people ask, he says they should go and verify. He even said if anyone can bring evidence, he will drop his presidential ambition. The claim became explanation and personal interpretation when Soludo brought evidence in the 12th year. Please note: This is just a clarification of my post to you—not support for or against any candidate. |
WhizdomXX:That is the ultimate: to hold everyone who was elected or selected into public office accountable to the people who gave them the trust. That is the social contract. We are not there yet, but we will be. |
mikeapollo:Fair question. Let me answer it directly. Yes, I apply the same standard. And that's the point. If someone else—Obasanjo, Buhari, Jonathan, any governor, any minister—declared only assets and hid liabilities, I would say the same thing. Handover is assets and liabilities. Full stop. But here's the distinction I'm drawing: I am not demanding 100% perfection. I am demanding 100% disclosure. There is a difference between being flawless and being transparent. No human is flawless. But anyone who holds public office and publicly claims honesty is held to a standard of complete disclosure, not selective disclosure. That is not perfection—that is the minimum. The person in question did not accidentally omit the debts. For 12 years, he never mentioned them. He only acknowledged them when Soludo's government flagged it. That is not a mistake. That is a pattern of selective truth-telling. On consistency: You ask if I condone mediocrity in others. No. But there is a hierarchy of accountability: A private citizen who lies about their finances is a private matter. A public officeholder who lies about their finances is a public matter. A public officeholder who publicly vouches for their own honesty and then selectively discloses—that is a breach of public trust. The standard is not "perfection." The standard is honesty about what you know and what you owe. He failed that standard. If someone else fails it, I will say the same. So yes—apply the same rule. That is exactly what I am asking for. |
Streetinvestor2:Another truth: the standard has become so low in this country that we compare someone who lies twice to someone who lies a hundred times—as if the first is a saint. A lie is a lie. Handover shouldn't just be assets. It should be assets and liabilities. To think he didn't know what he did is either childish or ignorance. What I said was: if he had declared it as it is all this while, he wouldn't be explaining and explaining now. Rufai Oseni asked the same question—why hasn't he ever mentioned it until Soludo's government flagged it? A higher standard is required from someone who publicly vouches for his honesty. |
Krisuba:The issue is that he was economical with the truth—or simply lying—if he declared only what he left behind without what he owed. For 12 years, he never mentioned the debts. He keeps asking us to verify and even dares people to produce evidence. All we have ever seen and heard about is what he left, not what he owes. Being truthful would have meant declaring both the savings and the debts—even if the surplus is real. Trust is in question when it takes someone raising the debts before he owns up—and now he has to explain and explain. Truth does not require personal interpretations. |
KarlTom:Could you please add OANDO and let see how it fairs? |
