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Ghm's Posts

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ghm: 10:30am On Oct 08
faoogoke:
Ordinarily Oando should have gone under.
I wonder what is keeping it afloat and for how long it can keep selling hope to its shareholders.
Better if Seplat or Aradel acquire the company.
Salient point, you raised, here are my findings based on your post.

Looking at Oando's footprint—the company's premises, events, management and staff, buildings, offices, cars, planes, etc.—you will see an extremely successful and affluent company, with no visible traces of a broken balance sheet. Oando is being kept afloat by a legal guarantee from its majority shareholder, an aggressive debt-restructuring plan, and the sheer scale of its assets. But that lifeline has an expiry date, and it is not a long-term solution.

What's Keeping It Afloat Right Now

1. The OODP Letter of Guarantee
The primary lifeline is a Letter of Guarantee from Ocean and Oil Development Partners (OODP), Oando's majority shareholder. It is valid from 25 March 2026 to 25 March 2027. It commits OODP to support Oando so it can meet its financial obligations as long as liabilities exceed assets. The critical caveat: the evidence of OODP's net worth backing this guarantee has not yet been independently verified . This is not a cash injection; it's a promise from a related party.

2. The Recapitalisation Plan
Management has a three-part plan approved by shareholders: a N500 billion capital raise (first tranche N220 billion rights issue awaiting SEC approval), conversion of up to US$300 million** of Reserve-Based Lending debt into equity, and a **US$1.5 billion multi-instrument issuance programme .

3. Operational Cash Generation
Oando is not dead operationally. H1 2026 production averaged 42,789 boepd, up 16%, with production opex down 18% to $16.83/boe . It ended H1 with N544.92 billion in cash . Operating profit was N127.84 billion, a turnaround from a loss .

How Long Can It Keep "Selling Hope"?

The honest answer: until March 2027, when the OODP guarantee expires.
After that, the company's survival depends entirely on whether the recapitalisation plan succeeds. And there are serious doubts:

Negative equity persists: Total equity was negative N530.45 billion at H1 2026 .
Finance costs exceed operating profit: H1 2026 finance costs were N167.58 billion against operating profit of N127.84 billion . The company is not earning enough to cover its debt servicing.

The "profit" is not from operations: N104.44 billion of operating profit came from other income and impairment reversals—not from selling oil or trading crude .

Shareholder governance challenge: A shareholder has formally challenged the US$434.5 million receivable settlement and the proposed rights issue, raising questions about related-party transactions and dilution, with copies to the SEC and CAC .

Could Seplat or Aradel Acquire Oando?

This is speculative, but here's the context:

Seplat is the largest indigenous producer, targeting 200,000 boepd by 2030, with net debt reduced to $370.7 million after repaying $200 million . It has the balance sheet and the operational credibility.

Aradel ended H1 2026 with N1.72 trillion in cash, the largest of the three, and has been on an acquisition spree, consolidating ND Western and taking a majority stake in Renaissance Africa Energy.

Oando's appeal: It holds the largest indigenous reserves and has completed the NAOC acquisition, adding significant Niger Delta acreage .

An acquisition would be a massive undertaking, given Oando's N2.42 trillion enterprise value and N2.70 trillion in debt . But it would be a logical consolidation play for a cash-rich Aradel or a strategically ambitious Seplat.

Bottom Line
Oando is surviving on borrowed time and a shareholder guarantee. The operational turnaround is real—production is up, costs are down—but the balance sheet is still broken. The "hope" being sold is that the recapitalisation will fix it. The risk is that the March 2027 guarantee expiry arrives before the fix is complete.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ghm: 10:01pm On Oct 07
essentialone1:
*10 'Cheapest' Stocks in NGX Stock Market presently. Short-term Gamblers take note:*

1. Multi-trex Plc (N0.39)
2. Secure Electronic Technology NSLTECH Plc (N0.73)
3. Regency Alliance Insurance Plc (N0.74)
4. Guinea Insurance Plc (N0.78)
5. Royal Exchange Insurance Plc (N1.08)
6. Veritas Kapital Insurance Plc (N1.08)
7. Prestige Insurance Plc (N1.36)
8. Omatek Plc (N1.41)
9. Daar Communication Plc (N1.45)
10. Linkage Insurance Plc (N1.65)
@essentialone1,
What are you saying?
Why do you call people short-term gamblers? These are recognised categories—globally.

By Holding Period:
Scalpers – seconds to minutes
Day Traders – within a single session, no overnight positions
Swing Traders – days to weeks
Position Traders – weeks to months
Investors – months to years

By Strategy & Analysis:
Momentum Traders – ride strong price trends
Breakout Traders – enter when price breaks key levels
Mean Reversion Traders – bet on price returning to average
News-Based Traders – react to events and announcements
Arbitrage Traders – profit from price differences across markets
Technical Traders – use charts, patterns, indicators
Fundamental Traders – analyse financials and economic conditions

By Execution:
Algorithmic (Algo) Traders – automated, rule-based execution

Investment Styles:
Growth Investing – companies expected to grow faster than market
Value Investing – undervalued stocks relative to intrinsic worth
Income Investing – prioritise dividends and cash flow
Active vs. Passive – beat the market vs. match the market

Different timeframes. Different disciplines. All legitimate.

Don't reduce us to slurs.
I have used most of the methods at one time or the other.

Are you saying we whould delve into these 10? I have a special account for speculative plays and I am open to it and they can easily fit in.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ghm: 8:44pm On Oct 07
mikeapollo:
Exactly!
Your analysis is on point!
They have refused to announce the Phase 2 of the share redistribution exercise, all because they want to take up the RI and be qualified for the redistribution again, diluting the ratios.
I think someone has already raised these issues in a petition to the Board of Directors.
Another court case may even come up if care is not taken.
I am confused. Can a company really influence its own share price? I think the market does that.

I always thought they couldn't—except through the legal and acceptable ways: issuing more shares, reorganisation, buybacks, etc.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ghm: 5:13pm On Oct 07
Agbalowomeri:
Oando moved from N5 to N90
Wetin Una want again
... and back to N30
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ghm: 12:25pm On Oct 07
naturalflow:
do you know if I bought at the 185th percentage gain?selling will then not make sense.
Fair point. If you bought at the peak, selling now may lock in a loss or a smaller gain—that changes the calculation.

But here's the thing: if you're holding a stock that's up 185% YTD and you need cash, the question isn't "did I buy at the top?" It's "what is my entry price and what is my current return?"

If you're still in profit, selling a few units to meet your needs is rational. If you're at a loss, then the dividend question becomes more relevant—but you should also ask whether the stock still deserves your capital at all.

And let's be clear: dividends are not sacrosanct these days. First HoldCo itself only issued its first positive ordinary dividend in three years after completing a capital raise in Q4 2025 . Even blue-chip names like GTCO cut their interim dividend to N1 per share this year . Dividend policies change with capital requirements and earnings. Don't hold a stock only for a dividend that may or may not come.

The dividend obsession only makes sense if you're holding for income. If you're holding for capital appreciation and you need cash, selling is always an option—regardless of where you bought.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ghm: 12:25pm On Oct 07
mikeapollo:
What about if he bought at a high price e.g. N150 or N160?
Fair point. If you bought at the peak, selling now may lock in a loss or a smaller gain—that changes the calculation.

But here's the thing: if you're holding a stock that's up 185% YTD and you need cash, the question isn't "did I buy at the top?" It's "what is my entry price and what is my current return?"

If you're still in profit, selling a few units to meet your needs is rational. If you're at a loss, then the dividend question becomes more relevant—but you should also ask whether the stock still deserves your capital at all.

And let's be clear: dividends are not sacrosanct these days. First HoldCo itself only issued its first positive ordinary dividend in three years after completing a capital raise in Q4 2025 . Even blue-chip names like GTCO cut their interim dividend to N1 per share this year . Dividend policies change with capital requirements and earnings. Don't hold a stock only for a dividend that may or may not come.

The dividend obsession only makes sense if you're holding for income. If you're holding for capital appreciation and you need cash, selling is always an option—regardless of where you bought.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ghm: 11:42am On Oct 07
naturalflow:
will/can/however/ntori olohun/first bank pay interim this month?.
Why are you so fixated on dividends?

First HoldCo is up approximately 185% year-to-date as of early August 2026 . The stock has nearly tripled this year alone.

You can simply sell a few units (any % you want) and use the cash to meet your needs. That's the point of holding liquid stocks—you don't have to wait for a dividend to access value.
Politics › Re: 2027: North-West, South-West Lead As South-East Records Lowest Voter Strength by ghm: 11:42pm On Oct 06
National Voters Registration 2026 - Summary

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ghm: 7:18pm On Oct 06
Itzlinda:
access or UBA which one has more upside potential?
DYOD

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ghm: 11:26am On Oct 05
Agbalowomeri:
It doesn't always work that way.
Don't be surprised to see the 150 stocks getting to 300 before 20 gets to 40 Lol
It is not just about price, fundamentals would have hinted you.

See my initial similar response below:

Sir, fair point—but we can't say everything in a single post.

All filters are already applied. We are assuming fundamentals, market capitalisation, and EBITDA multiples have already been considered. That is the baseline.

And when we say "most banks have rallied," we mean they have moved from where they were towards where they should be—the price has caught up with the fundamentals. Once that catch-up happens, the remaining percentage upside is smaller.

The post was not a stock-picking tutorial. It was a specific observation about where the remaining upside lies among banks that have not yet rallied.

If we have to restate every valuation metric before making a point, no one will ever make a point.

The logic stands: lower-priced stocks that haven't rallied have more room to run in percentage terms. That is not a substitute for fundamentals—it is an additional filter on top of them.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ghm: 10:45am On Oct 05
essentialone1:
It does not always work like that. Unless you are a short term Gambler.
Sir, fair point—but we can't say everything in a single post.

All filters are already applied. We are assuming fundamentals, market capitalisation, and EBITDA multiples have already been considered. That is the baseline.

And when we say "most banks have rallied," we mean they have moved from where they were towards where they should be—the price has caught up with the fundamentals. Once that catch-up happens, the remaining percentage upside is smaller.

The post was not a stock-picking tutorial. It was a specific observation about where the remaining upside lies among banks that have not yet rallied.

If we have to restate every valuation metric before making a point, no one will ever make a point.

The logic stands: lower-priced stocks that haven't rallied have more room to run in percentage terms. That is not a substitute for fundamentals—it is an additional filter on top of them.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ghm: 10:27am On Oct 05
Agbalowomeri:
I have never looked at FCMB book before but I gave AI some metrics to rank stocks on NGX and I was shocked to see FCMB behind only ONE bank. Abeg wetin dey inside the result sef
The upside isn't in the banks that have already run. It's in the smaller-priced names: Fidelity, FCMB, UBA, Access Corp.

Most banks have rallied. The fuel may be gone in percentage terms.

The math is simple. A 100% gain on N20 takes it to N40. A 100% gain on N150 takes it to N300. Both are 100%. But the N20 stock only needs a N20 move to double. The N150 stock needs N150.

Lower price = more room to run in percentage terms.
Family › Re: Banker Left Homeless After Wife Relocated To Canada And Blocked Him (Video) by ghm: 9:23am On Oct 05
GloriousGbola:
In 2026 there is no way you can block your children from communicating with their dad.

One way or another they will get through to him if they want to.
Yeah. It didn't happen today—it started in 2026. He has lived 9 years in Lagos since the incidents. It is like everyone has moved on.

My fear is for the wife and children. I pray misfortune has not befallen them. How can close family members be incommunicado for years—no word, no contact, no one who knew them together even hinting at their whereabouts?

And with today's technology, social media, and a little investigative journalism, anyone can be found. Those who do not want to be found cannot hide for long.
Travel › Re: Why Burkina Faso Is Suddenly Changing Its Transport System In 2026? (video) by ghm: 11:45pm On Oct 02
hahn:
Since you are there, maybe you should discuss with their president on the possibilty of him taking over Nigeria as well
Because of bus stop?
Nigerians do not wven know NIgeria. This country is a phenomenon, Nigeria has more than 100 of such bus stops across the country.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ghm: 8:32am On Oct 01
essentialone1:
Reserves attract speculators. Balance sheet determines if institutions can come in. Oando today has the first, but fails the second.

*1. The going concern flag is not a technicality. It is a disqualifier.*

When auditors include "material uncertainty related to going concern" it automatically triggers a breach in most institutional mandates.

For Oando's FY2025, the auditor cited:

- Recurring net liabilities - negative equity of N567 billion
- Significant working capital deficiency
- Multiple loan defaults
- Exposure to enforcement of security over assets
- Uncertainty over management's funding plans.

Under IFRS, that means the company is technically insolvent - total liabilities N8.01 trillion exceed total assets. It continues to operate on the basis of a Letter of Financial Support or Guarantee from its majority shareholder. For a pension fund, insurer, or a group like Heirs Energies, that letter is not bankable collateral. Their risk committee cannot approve a position where solvency depends on an unverified shareholder guarantee.

Seplat and Aradel do not have this clause. That alone removes Oando from the investable universe for many.

*2. The earnings quality problem.*

OandO FY2025 reported EPS of N30. It looks strong optically, but:

- Finance costs nearly doubled: N236bn to N465bn
- Operating cash flow: only N32.3bn positive against N8.01 trillion liabilities
- Revenue down 22% YoY, with a gross loss of N2.76bn reported.
- Profit supported by non-recurring items: finance income, tax credits, impairment reversals.

An institutional analyst will strip those out and look at sustainable operating cash flow. On that basis:

- Seplat: $1.17bn operating cash flow, net debt down to $673m, 40-50% dividend payout policy. Cash flows fund both debt service and shareholder returns.
- Aradel: clean balance sheet, low leverage, which is why a single buyer could pay N390bn for 15.92% at N559.50 per share - valuing the whole company at over N2.4 trillion without a going-concern discount.

*3. Debt overhang kills reserve value.*

Oando is the largest indigenous holder of 2P reserves, that is factual. But reserves only create equity value after debt is serviced.

With N465bn in finance costs and only N32.3bn in operating cash flow, free cash flow to equity is negative before capex for reserve development. Any barrel produced first goes to lenders.

This is why Analysts' fair value of N123 on asset NAV and the market price of N34 of Oando Plc, can both be rational. N123 is asset value. N34 is asset value minus debt risk, enforcement risk, and dilution risk. The gap is the market pricing the balance sheet.

*Why Elumelu chose Seplat Plc over Oando Plc is logical:*

1. He is increasing a controlling stake from 20.07% to 21.07% - he needs a board, dividend, and ability to consolidate without going-concern risk.
2. Seplat has just integrated MPNU assets and has clear cash flow to deleverage.
3. He can become Chairman in January 2027 with a clean governance path. No institutional board would approve a Chairman appointment at a company with negative equity and multiple loan defaults.

Until Oando does a definitive balance sheet repair - debt-to-equity conversion, asset sale with debt paydown, or a large equity raise that restores positive equity and removes the going concern qualification - it stays in the speculative basket.

Institutions don't avoid it because they missed the reserves. They avoid it because their mandate forbids them from investing in negative equity companies with loan defaults, regardless of reserves.
Thanks for this.

The question for me is: how low can it still go?

It is already 30% down in my portfolio. That is very bad.

I left it as a case of ""he that is down needs fear no fall."
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ghm: 7:09am On Oct 01
essentialone1:
Na so you hate Oando?
It is the only loser and worst performing stock in my portfolio, I have let it's fellow laggers go but it's potential didn't allow me to let it go.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ghm: 1:12am On Oct 01
essentialone1:
*5 Worst Performing NGX Stocks so far this Year 2026*

1. Aluminum Extrusion Plc (has lost 54.27%)
2. Austin Laz Plc (has lost 48.24%)
3. Guinea Insurance Plc (has lost 47.37%)
4. Tripple Gee Plc (has lost 47.29%)
5. Sunu Assurance Plc (has lost 44.00%)


Which of them do you have presently in your Portfolio? 🤔
How did OandO escape this list?
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ghm: 1:11am On Oct 01
essentialone1:
*5 Best Performing NGX Stocks so far this Year 2026*

1. Fortis Insurance Plc (has gained 805.00%)
2. SCOA Plc (has gained 365.49%)
3. Union Dicon Plc (has gained 244.20%)
4. FirstHoldco Bank Plc (has gained 233.82%)
5. Berger Paint Plc (has gained 207.50%)


Which of them do you have presently in your Portfolio? 🤔
Only FirstHoldco Bank Plc

Did we miss them on this forum?
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ghm: 12:16pm On Sep 30
mikeapollo:
This Wale is unserious!
What is his business with the creative industry?
That is the point we were making earlier about the leadership of Oando.

There have been several industry events in the last few weeks, and the who-is-who in the oil industry are present—from International Oil Companies like Shell, ExxonMobil, Total, and Chevron, to Seplat, Aradel, Renaissance Energy, NLNG, and several other indigenous oil companies.

There is no notable presence of Oando, despite the large reserves they own.

The same thing will happen to deals. Notable money will flow to where the technical expertise is. Simple.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ghm: 7:58am On Sep 30
yMcy56:
Don't bother to buy directly from Morgan Capital, it's waste of time...not even sure you can buy directly from Morgan.

I-Invest directly from NGX or Bank Apps are much better, simple and quicker to use.

https://www.invest.ngxgroup.com/

** If you register on I-Invest, you can still be using the channel to be continuously buying other offers that may come out thereafter.

** I assisted a relative to register and purchased FCMB Public Offer and I've been using it to buy other Offers that comes out and they're interested in.
** You can be checking it regularly for any Offer that comes out and you might not even be aware of, it's always listed there..... including Rights Issues.
I have subscribed for the IPO few days ago but more funds became available. Do you know if one can still put another entry or a top-up and how one can go about it?
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ghm: 9:59am On Sep 29
What's happening in Eternal, NPFMCRFBK, TRANSCOHOT, CMFC that we missed, they are all balling in the market.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ghm: 3:53pm On Sep 28
essentialone1:
OandO always sound like wedding invitation card. OandO, OwedO
There are some heavy investors positioning in the oil sector for about 2 years now. You can see Tony Elumelu coming into SEPLAT. You can see major silent moves in ARADEL. But they are all avoiding OANDO.

Why? Why are they avoiding Oando? Why are they not overlooking the book problem and positioning into the largest indigenous reserves?

The answer is simple: Oando's problem is not cosmetic. It is existential.

The auditors flagged a "material uncertainty related to going concern" in the FY2025 financial statements. The reasons are explicit:

Recurring net liabilities (negative equity of N567 billion)

Significant working capital deficiency

Multiple loan defaults

Exposure to enforcement of security over assets

Uncertainty over management's funding plans

The company is technically insolvent. Liabilities exceed assets. It is only operating because of a Letter of Guarantee from its majority shareholder—which has not been independently verified.

The numbers tell the story:
Total liabilities: N8.01 trillion
Shareholders' equity: negative N567 billion
Finance costs: N465 billion (nearly doubled from N236 billion)
Operating cash flow: N32.3 billion (barely positive)

And the earnings are not what they seem. Oando reported EPS of N30 for FY2025, but a forensic review found it was "optically strong but structurally weaker." The profit was driven by non-recurring finance income, tax credits, and impairment reversals. Core operations were weak: revenue declined 22%, and the company recorded a gross loss of N2.76 billion.

Now look at the alternative:

SEPLAT reduced net debt to $673 million, generated $1.17 billion in operating cash flow, and maintains a 40-50% dividend payout policy.

ARADEL attracted an undisclosed buyer who paid N390 billion for a 15.92% stake, valuing it at N559.5 per share.

Elumelu and that buyer are institutional investors. Their internal risk committees and fiduciary duties prevent them from investing in a company with negative equity, going concern warnings, multiple loan defaults, and earnings reliant on non-recurring items.

It is not that they are overlooking Oando's book problem. The book problem disqualifies Oando from serious institutional investment.

The reserves are real. But reserves only create value if they can be developed and monetized. Oando's debt burden means any cash flow generated must first service debt before it can fund development or return capital.

Renaissance Capital's fair value of N123 per share is based on asset value. The market price of N34 reflects the debt discount. The gap is the market saying: "We see the reserves, but we don't trust the balance sheet to unlock them."

Until Oando fixes its balance sheet, it remains a stock for speculators, not institutions.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ghm: 3:16pm On Sep 28
Stockpromoter:
Japaulgold opted for last hour clearance.
Sorry o, who is that guy that was sitting down and watching as Japaulgold deh park, I hope it is not the shareholders?
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ghm: 3:11pm On Sep 28
kariacat:
Dangote Refinery : Retail Investor Incentive Programme ?

I am having a really hard time understanding what the Dangote refinery Retail Investor Incentive Programme really means ? From the prospectus, it sounds like they would give each person 1 extra share (N525) if you keep the shares for a year and 2 if you keep them for 2 years. Is this true ? If it is so, I consider this an insult and a slap on the faces of their investors. So if Chief buys N50 million worth of Dangote's shares and keeps his capital tied down with Dangote for a full year, it is one single share that he will get as compensation ? What an insult !! This can never ever keep a person from selling his shares... never !!!!

But on the other hand, what I had initially understand was that for every 10 units (minimum quantity) purchased, an extra 1 unit will be awarded free of charge after a year. Therefore, for 40,000 units purchased, an investor will get 4,000 extra units. That is : 1 for 10.

Which of these is correct please ?
This was discussed extensively here.

Each shareholder who keeps a minimum of 10 shares for 1 year will get 1 free share. Hold for 2 years and you get 2 free shares total.

That is 10% value per annum—and 20% over the 2 years—for the minimum holder.

The retail investor incentive is clear: it targets the 10 million everyday Nigerians—drivers, cooks, small traders. It encourages them to hold for at least 2 years.

If you can afford 50 units or more, be thankful and look away. This is the people's IPO.

As our Group Chairman said: we are looking forward to using stadiums for AGMs.

On the other hand, do you think it will not be a massive dilution for a newly listed company that already has huge outstanding shares to be given 1:10 bonus 2 years in a row?
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ghm: 11:05am On Sep 28
Stockhunter:
Its just as if some people want to deliberately kill this thread that has been beneficial to all in the past. Its unfortunate that new comers may not have that advantage of benefiting as some of us did in the past. Its even better you come and not see any posts that seeing irrelevant posts... Una welldone o.
We have been through this so many times and here is my suggestion:

Instead of spending energy policing people who digress into other topics, let's use that energy to generate relevant content—questions, perspectives, stock picks, NGX discussions. Kudos to those who share reports, information, weekly, daily perspectives on stocks to watch etc. I don't want to mention names.

That will produce enough stock-related talk to keep the forum focused, and naturally dilute off-topic posts into extinction.

And if you're not posting anything yourself, you don't get to complain about what others post—as if you're the one to decide for them.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ghm: 4:47pm On Sep 25
mikeapollo:
Okay. You gave a good response and made strong defense. Well, appreciated.

What about someone:
i. who said that they had already met the revenue target for the year in August, but it was discovered to be untrue, and the country went ahead to borrow to support the national budget after he made such comment?
ii. who congratulated the NNPC in 2024 saying the refinery in PH had been successfully repaired and has started refining crude oil to petroleum. But it now turned out that it is false and they still continue to import refined products?

Just asking to be educated.
I have refrained from mentioning names so people would not know who I am referring to and read mischievous meanings into the discussion (some people are just amebo)
Fair question. Let me address both directly.

On the revenue claim:
He said the revenue target was met in August. The Budget Office's own report shows federal revenue was N20.98 trillion against a N25.88 trillion target—a N4.9 trillion shortfall. The deficit hit N13.51 trillion, 47.3% above budget. Borrowing reached N12.62 trillion, exceeding the approved limit by N4.79 trillion. The data was not hidden until someone else flagged it.

On Port Harcourt refinery:
NNPC announced it had resumed production in November 2024. By May 2025 it was shut down for "maintenance." By February 2026 the NNPC CEO admitted the refineries were closed because they were "operating at significant losses." As of August 2026, the NMDPRA factsheet shows NNPC refineries remained non-operational. Dangote supplied 99.9% of domestic petrol receipts. Nigeria continued importing.

On consistency:
You asked if I apply the same standard. Yes. A public officeholder who claims targets are met when the budget office shows shortfalls, and announces a refinery delivered when it stops operating months later, has failed the standard of accurate public disclosure. That is not a demand for perfection. It is a demand for truthfulness about verifiable facts. Apply that rule to anyone—past, present, or future. Both the FM and NNPC CEO admitted without personal interpretations.

We shouldn't live in a place where we see some people as very bad because they made a full disclosure about failures, debts, deficits, and liabilities and admitted when challenged—and see others as good while they removed failures, debts, deficits and liabilities from their claims and still refuse to admit when challenged, giving personal interpretation instead.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ghm: 4:20pm On Sep 25
Streetinvestor2:
I disagree. He is to declare assets and liability of his tenure which was 8yrs. I don't understand this 12 yes u keep mentioning. He is to be held accountable of money that came to him within 8 yrs and what he did with it.Why do you want him to be held responsible for what didn't happen during his tenure or after his tenure. He said u should show someone he owed as a result of his governance dealings within his tenure as the governor..

The question is did he manage the money that came to him during his 8 yrs prudently or not
Can you place him wanting for the funds he received during his tenure and how it was spent.
Unlike this government that can not give account of saved money from subsidy removed.
Do you even know this government has spent trillions of naira outside approved budget which is against the constitution.
Let me clarify the 12 years I have been mentioning.

He was governor for 8 years and left in 2014. From 2014 till now (2026) is 12 years. He has been citing the handover note since then, claiming he never borrowed and that the state was debt-free under him. 2014–2026 is the 12 years—not that he was governor for 12 years.

I have studied the handover note and the figures, and have used them in many discussions. Whenever people ask, he says they should go and verify. He even said if anyone can bring evidence, he will drop his presidential ambition. The claim became explanation and personal interpretation when Soludo brought evidence in the 12th year.

Please note: This is just a clarification of my post to you—not support for or against any candidate.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ghm: 3:49pm On Sep 25
WhizdomXX:
Good one. Hope you are holding elected government to the same standards that you deserve as an electorate?
That is the ultimate: to hold everyone who was elected or selected into public office accountable to the people who gave them the trust. That is the social contract. We are not there yet, but we will be.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ghm: 12:21pm On Sep 25
mikeapollo:
Fair point to make. But are we applying the same rule consistently?
In order words, you expect someone to show 100% integrity or perfection in what he/she says or gives as his account.
Do you apply the same standard, yardstick to others as well, in every other issue or matter?
Do you expect one person to be 100% in integrity, but ready to condone less integrity with excuses when it concerns others?.

Just asking so I can be educated
Fair question. Let me answer it directly.

Yes, I apply the same standard. And that's the point.

If someone else—Obasanjo, Buhari, Jonathan, any governor, any minister—declared only assets and hid liabilities, I would say the same thing. Handover is assets and liabilities. Full stop.

But here's the distinction I'm drawing: I am not demanding 100% perfection. I am demanding 100% disclosure.

There is a difference between being flawless and being transparent. No human is flawless. But anyone who holds public office and publicly claims honesty is held to a standard of complete disclosure, not selective disclosure. That is not perfection—that is the minimum.

The person in question did not accidentally omit the debts. For 12 years, he never mentioned them. He only acknowledged them when Soludo's government flagged it. That is not a mistake. That is a pattern of selective truth-telling.

On consistency:

You ask if I condone mediocrity in others. No. But there is a hierarchy of accountability:

A private citizen who lies about their finances is a private matter.
A public officeholder who lies about their finances is a public matter.
A public officeholder who publicly vouches for their own honesty and then selectively discloses—that is a breach of public trust.

The standard is not "perfection." The standard is honesty about what you know and what you owe. He failed that standard. If someone else fails it, I will say the same.

So yes—apply the same rule. That is exactly what I am asking for.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ghm: 12:03pm On Sep 25
Streetinvestor2:
You like truth but can't demand same from the drug baron concerning everything about his life and dealings...hypocrite
Why not say the debt that was generated during obi tenure as Governor for 8 yrs that was not cleared. You are transferring debts that was generated before his government that was possibly not cleared

He said u should verify debts that was generated during his tenure.Then contracts executed during his tenure and approved for payments he did not pay
Stop being half wise.by bringing all manner of carry over to him
Another truth: the standard has become so low in this country that we compare someone who lies twice to someone who lies a hundred times—as if the first is a saint. A lie is a lie.

Handover shouldn't just be assets. It should be assets and liabilities. To think he didn't know what he did is either childish or ignorance.

What I said was: if he had declared it as it is all this while, he wouldn't be explaining and explaining now. Rufai Oseni asked the same question—why hasn't he ever mentioned it until Soludo's government flagged it?

A higher standard is required from someone who publicly vouches for his honesty.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ghm: 9:51am On Sep 25
Krisuba:
If the money borrowed was not spent before he left office that means he left no deficit. Its simple. U can't be looking on d negative on the accounting book while ignoring the positive that is steering you in d face. Am no accountant just the little I know on balancing an account
The issue is that he was economical with the truth—or simply lying—if he declared only what he left behind without what he owed. For 12 years, he never mentioned the debts. He keeps asking us to verify and even dares people to produce evidence.

All we have ever seen and heard about is what he left, not what he owes. Being truthful would have meant declaring both the savings and the debts—even if the surplus is real.

Trust is in question when it takes someone raising the debts before he owns up—and now he has to explain and explain. Truth does not require personal interpretations.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ghm: 11:28pm On Sep 24
KarlTom:
Market Cap @ cob 24 Sep '26

ARADEL (SP= 1530): ₦6,640,200,000,000
SEPLAT (SP=16000): ₦9,599,112,976,000

Mind the gap... wink
Could you please add OANDO and let see how it fairs?

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