₦airaland Forum

SonofElElyonRet:
Don't rule out the possibility of Dangote refinery Nigeria having shares in dangote refinery Kenya... Would be the patriotic thing for Dangote to do. Not necessarily majority shares

Most likely it won't.

It is the Dangote Group—the parent company—that owns the majority stakes in most Dangote companies. That is where the Kenyan refinery stake would sit, not under the Nigerian refinery.

megawealth01:
You gerrit ba?

I honestly doubt if the big boiz are buying this IPO

I've been monitoring all activities around the IPO.... I notice na mainly low income earners, middle earners etc dey excited...I might be wrong sha

Big boys have bought during the private placement.

STNWAUME:
This shows that Dangote package fra_ud for Nigerians by the time the 125billions Units of Dangote Refinery is listed.

Now watch how their Share-price will systematically drop down to #100.

This is premature.

The IPO hasn't closed. The listing hasn't happened. You're predicting a price collapse before the stock has traded a single day.

Wait for the listing. Then substantiate your claim with data—not speculation.

faoogoke:
I wondered too!

Accesscorp Dividend yield he said is 0.00%

I decided to discard his previous and current posts on the subject

You guys are supposed to just highlight the issue with the analysis—with a good attitude—or share your corrected versions. He will take a look and update it.

I remember when I posted some calculations and omitted a key item that could have drastically affected my result. Some very senior and knowledgeable people here pointed it out. But the manner of humility and respect they did it with made me redo the calculations and repost.

@Essentialone1, please don't be discouraged. I enjoy the post and look forward to more.

mikeapollo:
The site engineers. designers, environmentalist from the client, contractors must submit their reports to the Minister. And a very good minister must read and go through, especially for someone like Umahi who claims to be a ''professor'' in the field.
You cannot tell me that a minister supervising such huge project should not have a copy of the EIA and other technical reports.
Are we joking or what?
Who would pay when issues of compensation comes up? Is it the engineers, designers, environmentalists from the client, contractors or the Minister?

There is something called the Freedom of Information Act (2011). It authorises anyone to request any public document—for example, the EIA of a government project like the Lagos-Calabar Highway—from custodians. The Act also mandates custodians to make such documents available.

What you did not know was that Arise TV was bullying the minister to request it on the spot on TV. The minister could have requested it if they had told him in advance—or directed them to the Ministry of Environment.

Arise TV eventually wrote to the Ministry of Environment, and the Ministry responded with all the documents and even issued a press release.

If you are not partisan or a politician, do not join them in their war.

mikeapollo:
March 2024: Construction of Lagos-Calabar Highway begins
May 2024: Presidenr Tinubu official flags-off ceremony
November 2024: Official, full EIA approval by Ministry of Environment

Please let's rest the matter.

I am tempted to share some key engineering/EIA methods, but there is no need—because I don't think those raising it want to know. They are just playing politics with it.

Please let's rest the matter.

mikeapollo:
I don't think so but that is what happened under the ''trial and error'' govt

Please provide the pre-award EIA report and technical drawings if you have them.
These are some of the issues that caused problems with Umahi. He was asked to provide the EIA report and technical drawings for the project BEFORE the contract was awarded. He could not provide any because there was none!

The contract was awarded FIRST before they started considering these key issues.

Please do not show us the EIA report and technical drawings that came up AFTER the award of the contract!

The clearest evidence is the chop and change that you see them do on the project!

Also tell us if there was a tender for the project before it was awarded

That is another issue entirely—another glorification of ignorance and pettiness.

How can one ask an appointed executive minister such questions on a TV interview?

Such matters are handled in a technical workshop. And it will not be the minister who attends—it will be the site engineers, designers, environmentalists from the client and contractors, NGOs, professional regulatory bodies, NSE, COREN, etc and journalists, with all manner of standards to be verified. A thorough review will not take less than a week.

mikeapollo:
All these issues were raised by concerned citizens and analysts but the govt ignored and went ahead and awarded such a huge contract to cronies of the president:.
No Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) report.
No competitive tender for the project
No national budget appropriation
No national assembly scrutinyy
No comprehensive technical designs/drawings for the project.
etc.

But the president awarded the contract just like that and said the day the project was flagged off was his ''bragging day''
In other words, he awarded the project so that he could have something to brag with! imagine that!
And his numerous political goons always supported him, including Umahi.
Today, the same Umahi is praising the president for diverting the express road to connect to other existing roads.
So, the question is: what happens to the initial bloated cost of the contract?

So you think an engineering project—the construction of a road—will be done without an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and without comprehensive technical designs and drawings?

We like to demonstrate our ignorance. Partisan people and politicians can lie to make a cheap political jibe at opponents. But we should not join them.

If you are an engineer in the house, kindly assist and tell them if such is possible. How will workmen enter the field? With what documents? How will they know the mix, the equipment, the quantity survey?

We think engineering is talk talk.

GeneralDae:
FX reforms have also led to:

More daily inflows: from $20 million to $100 million as at 2023 to around $500 million as at 2026

Your Bank cards now working abroad with quarterly limits of up to $40,000. This was not seen since like 2012.

Return to JP Morgan index since 2015. JP Morgan now want to set up a merchant bank in the country

Fitch ratings and moody’s ratings are the best in like a decade

FDI have improved since 2023 modestly (still improving)

NGX market cap spurred due to certainty by investors. Market cap is now at over $120 Billion (highest ever in dollar terms and second highest ever in real dollar terms).

Airlines and other investors who couldn’t get their dollars are now stable in the country

FX backlogs cleared

They have forgotten that of international airline not getting the forex for their tickets.

pluto09:
Confusion might not be the right word but the government should do more by being sensitive and proactive.
The volatility in the market for petrol price is not good for the people and the economy.
I would have expected the government to step in since price crossed the N1000 threshold and enter into discussions with dangote on how best a price cap could be introduced and managed.

Good point.

The issue with Nigeria's fuel debate is that we want it both ways.

Once subsidy is removed, government has no business setting prices. The Minister of State for Petroleum said it plainly: "No, we don't have power to control price because it is completely deregulated" .

But here's the nuance we miss: in the UK, government doesn't set prices—but it still intervenes through tax policy, monitoring, and regulatory oversight. Fuel duty and VAT account for over half the pump price . When diesel hit £2, the RAC demanded tax cuts, not price controls .

The difference is the type of intervention. In the UK, it's fiscal policy (tax) and regulatory oversight (CMA monitoring for profiteering). In Nigeria, it's price intervention through NNPC's discount window.

The TUC president is right: capping price is a form of subsidy, however you frame it .

So the real question isn't "should government intervene?" It's "what kind of intervention is sustainable?" Tax policy and regulatory oversight—yes. Direct price-setting—that's just subsidy by another name.

ghm:
Final Weekend: To Buy or Not to Buy

The offer closes October 13. Here's the case.

The numbers are real. Dangote Refinery generated $13.9 billion in revenue** and **$1.82 billion in net profit in H1 2026 alone—a massive turnaround from a $475 million full-year loss in 2025.

Analysts see upside. CardinalStone has a 12-month target of N688.09 (39.6% upside from N525). Afrinvest's base case is N593 (13% upside), bull case N755 (44% upside), and bear case N340 (35% downside) .

The expansion is the story. Current capacity is 700,000 bpd. The $14.3 billion expansion will double it to 1.4 million bpd by 2029, making it the world's largest single-site refinery.

Demand is overwhelming. Within hours of opening, subscriptions hit N1.476 trillion—69% of the target. It broke MTN and GTCO digital subscription records in one day.

The risk is execution. The valuation is "somewhat rich" relative to global peers. The expansion timeline (2028-2029) is long, and delays could hurt returns.

Bottom line: This is a long-term hold, not a quick flip. If you believe in the expansion story, N525 is the entry. If you need liquidity soon, the free float is small—around 3.3% initially.

Last weekend to decide.

Do anyone know how you can check your subscription aside the email?

Final Weekend: To Buy or Not to Buy

The offer closes October 13. Here's the case.

The numbers are real. Dangote Refinery generated $13.9 billion in revenue** and **$1.82 billion in net profit in H1 2026 alone—a massive turnaround from a $475 million full-year loss in 2025.

Analysts see upside. CardinalStone has a 12-month target of N688.09 (39.6% upside from N525). Afrinvest's base case is N593 (13% upside), bull case N755 (44% upside), and bear case N340 (35% downside) .

The expansion is the story. Current capacity is 700,000 bpd. The $14.3 billion expansion will double it to 1.4 million bpd by 2029, making it the world's largest single-site refinery.

Demand is overwhelming. Within hours of opening, subscriptions hit N1.476 trillion—69% of the target. It broke MTN and GTCO digital subscription records in one day.

The risk is execution. The valuation is "somewhat rich" relative to global peers. The expansion timeline (2028-2029) is long, and delays could hurt returns.

Bottom line: This is a long-term hold, not a quick flip. If you believe in the expansion story, N525 is the entry. If you need liquidity soon, the free float is small—around 3.3% initially.

Last weekend to decide.

mikeapollo:
Is this not the same as subsidy?
A govt that speaks ftom both sides of the mouth.
And some people here would be defending them senselessly telling lies and giving excuses.

The question is fair. Even the TUC president said any price cap is "a subsidy in one form or another" .

But here is the distinction the government is drawing:

Subsidy = government pays the difference between the landing cost and the pump price. The cost is borne by the treasury.

What NNPC is doing = forgoing its retail profit margin. If landing cost is N1,300, NNPC sells at N1,300 . The company absorbs the lost margin, not the government.

The difference matters because one is a fiscal burden on public funds; the other is a commercial decision by a state-owned company.

The proposed N1,350 landing cost ceiling works similarly: refiners and importers absorb costs above the ceiling and recover later when conditions improve . It's a smoothing mechanism, not a permanent fiscal commitment.

So yes, it's an intervention. But it's not the old subsidy. That's the government's argument.

elengine:
I personally feel that Oando shareholders need to organise themselves and attend their next AGM. The only issue is my Whale may decide to move the meeting to virtual call😀😀😀

When you attend those AGMs, you will see people praising the board, the CEO, and management to high heavens—without ever mentioning the issues at hand.

lawani:
Yes but my point is that the right way in my opinion to run a public company is to set dividends apart each time you pay salaries. It does not have to be much but set something apart. It is not law yet but to me it is the right way forward

That is not how public company accounting works.

Salaries are a cost of production. They are incurred and paid as operations run. Profit is calculated at the end of the period—not before. You don't pay salaries "from profit." You pay them as an operating expense, and profit is what remains.

yMcy56:
Meanwhile, I dreamt sometimes ago, not too long.....and ironically, I saw OANDO on full bid.....the bid was massive...

Wondering what could bring this about?
Also hope it's for good and for the benefits of minority shareholders'....and, I no get malaria 😁

Maybe the dream will be true or not, I don't know....

It is not only the bid—the price rally that follows the bid will be massive. That is why I am following everything happening around Oando. I don't want to miss it.

Your dream will come to pass. The only issue is the time difference between our world (reality) and dreamland.

lawani:
IF A COMPANY COLLAPSES WE WILL KNOW IT HAS COLLAPSED AND THE SHAREHOLDERS WILL BEAR THE BRUNT BUT WHEN IT HAS NOT YET COLLAPSED THEN IT WOULDN'T BE FAIR TO PAY WORKERS WITHOUT PAYING THE SHAREHOLDERS

Oando is working hard — for its lenders, not its shareholders.

Think about it: staff show up, operate the business, and generate revenue. That revenue pays salaries. Fine. It pays suppliers. Fine. Then it pays ₦167.6bn in interest — which is more than the entire gross profit of ₦101.2bn.

By the time everyone else is paid, there is nothing left for the people who actually own the company.

This isn't about management being "unfeeling." It's about a balance sheet so deep underwater that the debt eats everything the staff produce.

Staff are not the problem. Lenders are not the problem. The problem is ₦2.7 trillion in debt sitting on negative equity of ₦530 billion.

You cannot pay dividends from a negative balance sheet. You can only fix the capital structure — or watch shareholders remain last in line forever.

That's the real Oando story.

presiade:
By tomorrow, we’ll know what’s up with ZENITHBANK. Based on currently available information, today’s the last day for hopeful gamblers to take positions in the bus.

Could you please hint us?

lionshare:
OODP = Wale & co through Whitmore Asset Management Limited; he will simply renew the guarantee before march 2027.

Thank you. I love this forum whenever people that know what's up speak. It goes further that we are not gamblers on this forum, we know something. Here are further information.

What is OODP?
OODP stands for Ocean and Oil Development Partners Limited. It is the majority shareholder and core investor in Oando PLC.

Who owns OODP?
OODP is a private company jointly owned by Wale Tinubu (Oando's Group Chief Executive) and Mofe Boyo (his deputy), along with the Volpi family's investment vehicle, Ansbury Investment Inc.

But there is another layer to the structure: Whitmore Asset Management Limited. Whitmore is the private investment vehicle of Wale Tinubu and Mofe Boyo. It co-owns OODP BVI (a British Virgin Islands joint venture company), which in turn owns 99.99% of OODP Nigeria. OODP Nigeria is the entity that holds the controlling stake in Oando PLC.

So the chain is: Tinubu/Boyo → Whitmore → OODP BVI → OODP Nigeria → Oando PLC.

What is OODP's stake in Oando?
OODP holds a controlling interest in Oando. Depending on the reporting date and methodology, its direct stake is reported as:

August 2026: 26.36%
September 2026: 28.55%
Historical (2022): 57.37%

The variation reflects different reporting methodologies (e.g., whether affiliated holdings like Leaf Equity Investments are consolidated).

The Letter of Guarantee
This is the critical document. OODP issued a Letter of Guarantee valid from 25 March 2026 to 25 March 2027. Under this guarantee, OODP commits to support Oando by ensuring the company can meet its financial obligations as they fall due, for as long as liabilities exceed assets.

The guarantee is described as a contract for the benefit of all creditors of Oando and its subsidiaries—present and future—who can enforce the undertakings given.

However, the financial statements contain a crucial caveat:"The effectiveness of this support is dependent on the financial capacity of the guarantor, which has not yet been independently verified." OODP told management that evidence of its net worth backing the guarantee is being audited, but the audit was not complete as of the financial statement approval date.

OODP's Role in the Recapitalisation
OODP is not just a passive guarantor. It has committed to fully subscribe to its rights entitlement and underwrite any shares not taken up by minority investors in Oando's proposed N500 billion capital raise. This means if minority shareholders don't take up their rights, OODP will buy them.

Why This Matters
Whitmore is the personal vehicle through which Wale Tinubu and Mofe Boyo control OODP, and by extension, their controlling stake in Oando. When people talk about "OODP's guarantee" keeping Oando afloat, they are effectively talking about Tinubu and Boyo's personal financial commitment—made through entities they own.

Oasisblue:
I wonder what is happening to the NGX.

The current trend is eroding my confidence in the market. How can there be so many 'good-fundamentals' stocks on full-offers zero bids? Aradel, Okomu, Presco, Vitafoam, TransPower, Julius Berger, Berger Paints....

The issue is tightly held ownership structures. This directly affects liquidity—when promoters and insiders hold 80-90%+ of shares, only a thin fraction is available for public trading .

That is why NGX implemented a new pricing mechanism specifically designed to improve liquidity in high-priced stocks by allowing smaller price movements to trigger price discovery .

It is also the reason Dangote wants 10 million shareholders for the refinery—to improve circulation and free float from the start

Oasisblue:
What does "the March 2027 guarantee expiry arrives before the fix is complete" indicate? Care to expound? Will Oando become bankrupt by that deadline?

I believe the management will find another way. The guarantee can be extended. The rights issue is also one of the ways—if it succeeds. Or the creditors may still extend more grace, inasmuch as they have not called for their funds. Acquisition and mergers is also a way out.

It is just that the ordinary shareholders cannot see anything tangible until it is fixed.

faoogoke:
Ordinarily Oando should have gone under.
I wonder what is keeping it afloat and for how long it can keep selling hope to its shareholders.
Better if Seplat or Aradel acquire the company.

Salient point, you raised, here are my findings based on your post.

Looking at Oando's footprint—the company's premises, events, management and staff, buildings, offices, cars, planes, etc.—you will see an extremely successful and affluent company, with no visible traces of a broken balance sheet. Oando is being kept afloat by a legal guarantee from its majority shareholder, an aggressive debt-restructuring plan, and the sheer scale of its assets. But that lifeline has an expiry date, and it is not a long-term solution.

What's Keeping It Afloat Right Now

1. The OODP Letter of Guarantee
The primary lifeline is a Letter of Guarantee from Ocean and Oil Development Partners (OODP), Oando's majority shareholder. It is valid from 25 March 2026 to 25 March 2027. It commits OODP to support Oando so it can meet its financial obligations as long as liabilities exceed assets. The critical caveat: the evidence of OODP's net worth backing this guarantee has not yet been independently verified . This is not a cash injection; it's a promise from a related party.

2. The Recapitalisation Plan
Management has a three-part plan approved by shareholders: a N500 billion capital raise (first tranche N220 billion rights issue awaiting SEC approval), conversion of up to US$300 million** of Reserve-Based Lending debt into equity, and a **US$1.5 billion multi-instrument issuance programme .

3. Operational Cash Generation
Oando is not dead operationally. H1 2026 production averaged 42,789 boepd, up 16%, with production opex down 18% to $16.83/boe . It ended H1 with N544.92 billion in cash . Operating profit was N127.84 billion, a turnaround from a loss .

How Long Can It Keep "Selling Hope"?

The honest answer: until March 2027, when the OODP guarantee expires.
After that, the company's survival depends entirely on whether the recapitalisation plan succeeds. And there are serious doubts:

Negative equity persists: Total equity was negative N530.45 billion at H1 2026 .
Finance costs exceed operating profit: H1 2026 finance costs were N167.58 billion against operating profit of N127.84 billion . The company is not earning enough to cover its debt servicing.

The "profit" is not from operations: N104.44 billion of operating profit came from other income and impairment reversals—not from selling oil or trading crude .

Shareholder governance challenge: A shareholder has formally challenged the US$434.5 million receivable settlement and the proposed rights issue, raising questions about related-party transactions and dilution, with copies to the SEC and CAC .

Could Seplat or Aradel Acquire Oando?

This is speculative, but here's the context:

Seplat is the largest indigenous producer, targeting 200,000 boepd by 2030, with net debt reduced to $370.7 million after repaying $200 million . It has the balance sheet and the operational credibility.

Aradel ended H1 2026 with N1.72 trillion in cash, the largest of the three, and has been on an acquisition spree, consolidating ND Western and taking a majority stake in Renaissance Africa Energy.

Oando's appeal: It holds the largest indigenous reserves and has completed the NAOC acquisition, adding significant Niger Delta acreage .

An acquisition would be a massive undertaking, given Oando's N2.42 trillion enterprise value and N2.70 trillion in debt . But it would be a logical consolidation play for a cash-rich Aradel or a strategically ambitious Seplat.

Bottom Line
Oando is surviving on borrowed time and a shareholder guarantee. The operational turnaround is real—production is up, costs are down—but the balance sheet is still broken. The "hope" being sold is that the recapitalisation will fix it. The risk is that the March 2027 guarantee expiry arrives before the fix is complete.

essentialone1:
*10 'Cheapest' Stocks in NGX Stock Market presently. Short-term Gamblers take note:*

1. Multi-trex Plc (N0.39)
2. Secure Electronic Technology NSLTECH Plc (N0.73)
3. Regency Alliance Insurance Plc (N0.74)
4. Guinea Insurance Plc (N0.78)
5. Royal Exchange Insurance Plc (N1.08)
6. Veritas Kapital Insurance Plc (N1.08)
7. Prestige Insurance Plc (N1.36)
8. Omatek Plc (N1.41)
9. Daar Communication Plc (N1.45)
10. Linkage Insurance Plc (N1.65)

@essentialone1,
What are you saying?
Why do you call people short-term gamblers? These are recognised categories—globally.

By Holding Period:
Scalpers – seconds to minutes
Day Traders – within a single session, no overnight positions
Swing Traders – days to weeks
Position Traders – weeks to months
Investors – months to years

By Strategy & Analysis:
Momentum Traders – ride strong price trends
Breakout Traders – enter when price breaks key levels
Mean Reversion Traders – bet on price returning to average
News-Based Traders – react to events and announcements
Arbitrage Traders – profit from price differences across markets
Technical Traders – use charts, patterns, indicators
Fundamental Traders – analyse financials and economic conditions

By Execution:
Algorithmic (Algo) Traders – automated, rule-based execution

Investment Styles:
Growth Investing – companies expected to grow faster than market
Value Investing – undervalued stocks relative to intrinsic worth
Income Investing – prioritise dividends and cash flow
Active vs. Passive – beat the market vs. match the market

Different timeframes. Different disciplines. All legitimate.

Don't reduce us to slurs.
I have used most of the methods at one time or the other.

Are you saying we whould delve into these 10? I have a special account for speculative plays and I am open to it and they can easily fit in.

mikeapollo:
Exactly!
Your analysis is on point!
They have refused to announce the Phase 2 of the share redistribution exercise, all because they want to take up the RI and be qualified for the redistribution again, diluting the ratios.
I think someone has already raised these issues in a petition to the Board of Directors.
Another court case may even come up if care is not taken.

I am confused. Can a company really influence its own share price? I think the market does that.

I always thought they couldn't—except through the legal and acceptable ways: issuing more shares, reorganisation, buybacks, etc.

Agbalowomeri:
Oando moved from N5 to N90
Wetin Una want again

... and back to N30

naturalflow:
do you know if I bought at the 185th percentage gain?selling will then not make sense.

Fair point. If you bought at the peak, selling now may lock in a loss or a smaller gain—that changes the calculation.

But here's the thing: if you're holding a stock that's up 185% YTD and you need cash, the question isn't "did I buy at the top?" It's "what is my entry price and what is my current return?"

If you're still in profit, selling a few units to meet your needs is rational. If you're at a loss, then the dividend question becomes more relevant—but you should also ask whether the stock still deserves your capital at all.

And let's be clear: dividends are not sacrosanct these days. First HoldCo itself only issued its first positive ordinary dividend in three years after completing a capital raise in Q4 2025 . Even blue-chip names like GTCO cut their interim dividend to N1 per share this year . Dividend policies change with capital requirements and earnings. Don't hold a stock only for a dividend that may or may not come.

The dividend obsession only makes sense if you're holding for income. If you're holding for capital appreciation and you need cash, selling is always an option—regardless of where you bought.

mikeapollo:
What about if he bought at a high price e.g. N150 or N160?

Fair point. If you bought at the peak, selling now may lock in a loss or a smaller gain—that changes the calculation.

But here's the thing: if you're holding a stock that's up 185% YTD and you need cash, the question isn't "did I buy at the top?" It's "what is my entry price and what is my current return?"

If you're still in profit, selling a few units to meet your needs is rational. If you're at a loss, then the dividend question becomes more relevant—but you should also ask whether the stock still deserves your capital at all.

And let's be clear: dividends are not sacrosanct these days. First HoldCo itself only issued its first positive ordinary dividend in three years after completing a capital raise in Q4 2025 . Even blue-chip names like GTCO cut their interim dividend to N1 per share this year . Dividend policies change with capital requirements and earnings. Don't hold a stock only for a dividend that may or may not come.

The dividend obsession only makes sense if you're holding for income. If you're holding for capital appreciation and you need cash, selling is always an option—regardless of where you bought.

naturalflow:
will/can/however/ntori olohun/first bank pay interim this month?.

Why are you so fixated on dividends?

First HoldCo is up approximately 185% year-to-date as of early August 2026 . The stock has nearly tripled this year alone.

You can simply sell a few units (any % you want) and use the cash to meet your needs. That's the point of holding liquid stocks—you don't have to wait for a dividend to access value.

National Voters Registration 2026 - Summary

Itzlinda:
access or UBA which one has more upside potential?

DYOD

Agbalowomeri:
It doesn't always work that way.
Don't be surprised to see the 150 stocks getting to 300 before 20 gets to 40 Lol

It is not just about price, fundamentals would have hinted you.

See my initial similar response below:

Sir, fair point—but we can't say everything in a single post.

All filters are already applied. We are assuming fundamentals, market capitalisation, and EBITDA multiples have already been considered. That is the baseline.

And when we say "most banks have rallied," we mean they have moved from where they were towards where they should be—the price has caught up with the fundamentals. Once that catch-up happens, the remaining percentage upside is smaller.

The post was not a stock-picking tutorial. It was a specific observation about where the remaining upside lies among banks that have not yet rallied.

If we have to restate every valuation metric before making a point, no one will ever make a point.

The logic stands: lower-priced stocks that haven't rallied have more room to run in percentage terms. That is not a substitute for fundamentals—it is an additional filter on top of them.

essentialone1:
It does not always work like that. Unless you are a short term Gambler.

Sir, fair point—but we can't say everything in a single post.

All filters are already applied. We are assuming fundamentals, market capitalisation, and EBITDA multiples have already been considered. That is the baseline.

And when we say "most banks have rallied," we mean they have moved from where they were towards where they should be—the price has caught up with the fundamentals. Once that catch-up happens, the remaining percentage upside is smaller.

The post was not a stock-picking tutorial. It was a specific observation about where the remaining upside lies among banks that have not yet rallied.

If we have to restate every valuation metric before making a point, no one will ever make a point.

The logic stands: lower-priced stocks that haven't rallied have more room to run in percentage terms. That is not a substitute for fundamentals—it is an additional filter on top of them.