₦airaland Forum

Streetinvestor2:
I want to tell u a story. Another rubbish story about the economy. Whr 79 % are in hunger and poverty as companies on ngx declare profits...lol

While we are not denying your observation about the 79% hunger and poverty statistic, you have consistently failed to tell us the reason for such a situation and what can be done to change the narrative.

Your response has always been "change the leadership." But if angels take over the exact same system, with the exact same structural incentives, the result will be the same.

Companies on the NGX declaring profits while citizens are hungry is not a glitch. It is the logical outcome of an economy where capital flows to the few who own the means of production, while the masses are left with wages that don't match inflation.

You want to tell us a story about the economy? Tell us how to fix the structure that allows a few companies to post billions in profit while 79% of the population can barely feed. Because changing the faces in Aso Rock without changing the system is just musical chairs.

The problem is not just who is sitting in the chair. It is the chair itself.

faoogoke:
Its more than that I think. It is the major issue however.

They can also get funds from local investments by dicestments and convert it to reduce the % of foreign acquisitions, it was 19%, it has to get down to 10% for compliance.

franchasng:
Obi became billionaire living in the UK though he started small from Nigeria even as a student who was nobody but UK loan plus his existing business network gave him the leverage to become billionaire, next!!!

You do not know much about Obi, go and ask about him during Abacha regime, Tin Can Island Port and Fidelity bank and come back and tell us.

Streetinvestor2:
That is the mistake u are making
In the past the youths whr not interested in Nigerian politics because the economy didn't affect them in this level
And for 2023 it went that way because obi played gentle man on time by saying he was going to court. If he had pronounced something negative. The country for scatter and the election cancelled. And in 2023 inec successful built trust in the people. So when glitch happened it happened so fast.This time people have lost trust and confidence in inec and judiciary. That is why you are hearing rig and DI by youths. The youths are demanding a better life for themselves and are ready to flame this country if anyone dears them.The north are just waiting for the world Go.
I know some will say the police and army will show up to shoot and stop it.We are in the era that the world is watching too
The police and army will be from which region going to shoot and kill in which region at that point. This was what gej saw and say it did not worth the blood of Nigerians then

You are right that 2027 will be different from 2023. I agree with that.

But let me challenge the assumption that different necessarily means "scatter" or "flame."

You said if Obi who came a distant third had pronounced something negative in 2023, the country would have scattered and the election cancelled. That is speculation. We don't know what would have happened. What we do know is that Obi chose the legal route, and the courts upheld the result. That was a choice—a deliberate one—to preserve stability over chaos.

You also said the youths are ready to "flame this country" if anyone dares them. That is a dangerous thing to say casually. It assumes that destruction is a legitimate response to a disputed election. It is not. It is a threat to the very people you claim to be fighting for.

The police and army point is also worth thinking about carefully. You asked: "Which region will the police and army come from to shoot and kill in which region?" That assumes soldiers and police officers do not have families, homes, and communities in the same places they would be deployed. It assumes they are foreigners in their own country. They are not. They are Nigerians. They are also citizens with grievances.

And the GEJ comparison: GEJ conceded because he believed the blood of Nigerians was not worth his ambition. That was a choice of statesmanship, not weakness.

But here is the question you need to ask yourself: are the youths you are talking about ready to concede the way GEJ did if they lose in a free and fair election?

If the answer is no—if they will only accept the result when they win—then they are not demanding democracy. They are demanding power. And that is no different from the politicians they criticise.

You are right that trust in INEC and the judiciary is low. You are right that youths are more engaged. You are right that the world is watching. But "flaming the country" is not a demand for a better life. It is a demand for destruction. There is a difference.

awesomeJ:
Even 2 million should already make it the largest shareholder base in the country or perhaps the whole of Africa and one of the largest in the world.

I'm still waiting to verify the 17 million too. I heard it from Ladi and his guest on Channels, they're reputable, but I'll still await a more concrete proof.

17 million looks almost impossible. We will wait and see what the final numbers are.

awesomeJ:
I saw some folks on Twitter mocking Alhaji for "hawking" refinery IPO at open markets.

First, why the discrimination to people in open markets, are these tweeters better than them? There are actually people in open markets that will feed some tweeters for a whole year comfortably.

Now these novices have probably never set and achieved any goals in their lives, yet they're making jest of a group that now singlehandedly controls about 25% of the nation's GDP.


What's the outcome of Alhaji's efforts.

10 million sharelolder target set, 17 million hit (reportedly).

If the stock lists on a Monday, I expect to exit by the Friday with 40%. except the bids still stay strong, then I might shift target to 60%.

That is the irony in this country.

I hear they call it the "Olodo Uprising"—where people who know next to nothing challenge people who know so much. Where people who have little or nothing are angry with people who have everything. Where people who do nothing mock people who are diligently working on their goals and purposes.

That is the irony.

mikeapollo:
Nigeria will not come to an end in 2027.
Whatever it is, there will be a president. Maybe some electoral dispute, then we organize two days of protests, then we continue life.
The failure or inability of the various people and ethnic groups to cooperate and unite to fight for a common goal or good cause, is a key weakness that the politicians exploit to misgovern and get away with.

So much noise was made in the tribunal and courts in 2023.

No matter the outcome of the election—irrespective of who emerged or was pronounced winner—those who do not win will still cry foul, make noise, threaten, and end up in tribunal and court. And the result will still hold.

It has been the signature of Nigerian presidential elections for decades. I do not expect 2027 to be different.

https://stockbubbles.com.ng/ has become a daily go-to tool for me to see the snapshot of the NGX market.

This is one of the numerous things I gained by being here. Well done to the builder and all the great contributors.

buygala:
Even if na 1 naira I invest, I must have a say in how the investment's profit is determined

... and who says you don't have a say? You will always have a say as a shareholder, you are entitled to a vote in every major decision, just like every other shareholders.

Streetinvestor2:
No hunger and poverty because people can buy 5k worth of shares and over 50 million Nigerians whr involved
The small change some people make from ngx is really making them confused

I think you are missing the point here.

My comment was neutral. It points to a society where there is spare capital of N6.4 trillion, and yet some people are still hungry in the same space. That contradiction is the point.

It illustrates what Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie calls "the danger of a single story." You may want to listen to it or read it up.

I question the narrative and the reality. And I offer to think about it.

mikeapollo:
So why did the govt and his bootlickers attack the people that called for these interventions, called them names and said these things are not possible and that the nation would collapse if the govt should do them?

Have they come out to acknowledge that the govt was wrong?

If we want to be sincere, at no time did anyone say it shouldn't be done. Even the government keeps acknowledging the state of things.

Heffalump:
You're a wise man!
If you judge by the numbers, the IPO wasn't attractive at all. Not that the Refinery will not make gains, it will especially being in the high demand commodity sector.

Now, let me make a little sense here: The wise business man is offering only about 3.3% of the Refinery business shares to the Nigerian public. What that means is that, out of 100% profit, about 20-30% profit is retained for business growth and the remaining, say 70% is shared according to the alloted public offers. Only about 3.3% of declared profit less tax and retained profit will be available for participating entities.

This is like a pinch of salt, quite small indeed. Investors will probably make gains, but not an attractive one. There are other more profitable ventures that won't tied down your fund like this particular investment for so long with little earning.

Oga, that is good for you.

He does all the work, and you do nothing. He is an active investor. You are a passive investor.

Some of us would not buy even if he were selling 51%—because the effort required to sustain and make it profitable consistently is enormous. The operational risk, the political risk, the execution risk—he carries all of it.

If it fails or loses money, he loses 83% of his value too. You lose only what you put in.

And on your math: the 3.3% float does not mean you get 3.3% of the profits. It means you own 3.3% of the shares. Your dividend is based on how many shares you own, not the size of the float. If you buy 1 million shares, you get the same dividend per share as Dangote gets on his 1 million shares. And if the stock appreciates, you benefit from that too—regardless of how small the float is.

Different strokes for different folks.

buygala:
If it barks like a dog, and walks on four legs, it's definitely a dog

Good luck to the investors

I will rather use my money to lodge 3 OS for a week-long foursome than invest in a company where I can only put in money but have no say on how its profit is to be shared

Dem never declare dividend for investors but Dangote's net worth has since this IPO, shot up exponentially...How does that even work?

Meanwhile he is also granting interviews broke-shaming people, same people who he expects in his refinery so that his net worth can still go higher

Good luck to you.

You don't need to tell us?

How much is your money in the first place that you want to have a say?

Dangote Refinery IPO Closes: $1.6Bn (N2.2 Trillion) Target Met With $4.78Bn (N6.4 Trillion) in Demand — Three Times Oversubscribed

That is a whopping N6.4 Trillion in orders from Nigerian retail and institutional investors alone—roughly three times the initial $1.6 billion (N2.2 Trillion) target.

Some people keep saying "ebi n'pawa; there is poverty and hunger in the land." If that were the single narrative about Nigeria, where did this money come from?

The capital is here. The question is whether the narrative matches the reality.

Let me go and think about that.

Sources:

Reuters via CNBC Africa: https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2026/dangote-refinery-ipo-draws-three-times-target-demand-sources-say

Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-27/dangote-refinery-ipo-set-for-record-on-african-global-demand

ayobama1:
Politicians understand the psychology of the electorates. Gov Adeleke paid only N20k palliative to civil servants to secure his reelection.

It is what it is 🤪

Isn't that what everyone is asking them to do? Shouldn't we acknowledge and applaud when someone does what we ask them to do, even if it is late?

faoogoke:
15. Juli Pharmacy
16. Oando
17 Dangote Refinery

We shall see for OandO and Dangote Refinery.

ayobama1:
I listened to the man and what I heard was that there was no single design for the project but there are designs for each of the phases of the project but hey,you are at liberty to only hear what you want to hear.🤪

Same here. I listened to him also, and I heard exactly what you said.

He said there are designs for each phase of the project, but there was no single design for the whole project. The minister never said there was no design. People are just deliberately misinterpreting him to score cheap political points.

It is well with us as a country. But this level of deliberate misinformation—this erosion of basic honesty in public discourse—is too much for progress. If we cannot even agree on what a man said on camera, how do we solve anything?

mikeapollo:
Is it a mandatory buy back and at what price?

Is it a mandatory buyback, and at what price?

Not exactly. Here is the sequence:

The government asked insurance companies to recapitalize. After trying several avenues, Coronation decided to sell part of the company to the public to raise the money needed to meet the regulatory requirement.

Now that they have crossed that hurdle, they want to buy back the shares they sold to the public. They offer a price and expect shareholders to exit.

It is not illegal. But it is ingratitude, indecision, irresponsibility, and disloyalty. They used the public to meet a regulatory requirement and now want to push the public out.

On the "mandatory" question: if the scheme is approved by the required majority at a court-ordered meeting, it becomes binding on all shareholders, including those who voted against it. So for minority shareholders, it is effectively mandatory once the vote passes. The only question is the price.

Stockpromoter:
Coronation insurance buyout case will end up like oando case.
They want to pay minority shareholders N2.43 .
If I be the minority shareholders,I will move the price to N5 and file a court case against them

I have to ask: why come to the market to beg the public to buy shares, only to turn around and buy them out later?

This is the Coronation Insurance situation. They are moving to buy out minority shareholders. In my view, this sends a terrible signal and could breed lethargy among the very retail investors that the government, SEC, and NGX are working so hard to attract.

If you cannot obey the regulatory workload and scrutiny that comes with being a public company, why come out in the first place?

If you need to increase your stake, why not initiate a share buyback to enhance share value and company valuation?

If you suddenly have more money, why not use it to expand the business or enhance shareholder value?

Buying out investors at will sends a chilling signal to serious investors about the risk of putting money into Nigerian companies.

megawealth01:
An Ikeguru situation

That $30 billion loss was just a -0.5% overall return on a massive $2.3 trillion fund. Even though their equities actually gained 0.5%, the bond market turbulence dragged the whole fund down.

That is what Norway did with their oil and gas money. It is exactly why most of us are angry with our past leaders. They had the same resources, but instead of building a generational wealth fund, they squandered it.

Wotowotoman:
Ogbeni, shut the hell up and stop embarrassing yourself. Abi you no pass comprehension for WAEC? Can you not read and comprehend that it is an IPO that the regulators in that country have stated the class of investors that can invest in? Which kind people be these wey person dey jam here sef?

Can you imagine this kind of utterance in a public space?

This is how grown adults are talking to each other on a forum about investments.

I just imagine if I heard my son say some of the things we type to ourselves as adults. He would know weting dey.

We can disagree without insulting each other. We can correct without degrading. If we cannot do that, we have no business calling ourselves adults, investors or professionals.

ghm:
Thank you for sharing. No matter how many times this is explained, people remain stuck in their misbeliefs, even supposedly educated and enlightened ones.

Take the "where are the subsidy savings?" question. It reflects a misunderstanding of how the Federation Account works.

Subsidy was paid from the FAAC pool before distribution. When subsidy was removed, that money stayed in the FAAC. FAAC has a strict constitutional distribution formula. So the money went to all three tiers.

The evidence is clear:
Total FAAC disbursements rose from N10.09tn in 2023 to N15.26tn in 2024, then N21.90tn in 2025 .
State allocations rose from N3.58tn to N5.81tn in the same period .
Nasarawa's Governor Sule said his state's monthly allocation rose from N3.8bn–N4.5bn to N14bn–N16bn .
Governors themselves confirmed they are getting more. Yet Nigerians still ask the President where the savings went.

The real question is not "where are the savings?" It is "what are the states (which also collects for the LGAs) and the FG doing with the increased allocations?" That is where the accountability gap lies.

That is why I believe that Nigeria will move forward faster when we seek to understand how things work, be less partisan and hold everyone accountable.

This is the deeper point. The states are drowning in cash from FAAC, but they have very few of the "heavy lifting" responsibilities. Defence, foreign affairs, monetary policy, and major infrastructure are federal. The states are left with education, healthcare, roads, and local services—and even those are often poorly delivered.

So what happens? Governors become mini-emperors. They control huge monthly allocations, they decide how much (or how little) reaches the Local Government Areas, and they face little accountability because the public's eyes are fixed on Aso Rock.

The FG takes the blame for everything. The governors take the money and build political war chests.

And here is the uncomfortable reality: while the FG made the policies, the people are living in the states. The World Bank reports that 129 million Nigerians are living below the national poverty line. The North-West and North-East have the highest severe poverty rates—Kebbi at 52.7%, Jigawa at 52.0%, Sokoto at 51.4%, Bauchi at 50.8%. These are state-level outcomes. The governors are receiving record allocations and the poverty is concentrated in their domains.

What you then see is that governors now have presidential or senatorial ambition. A governor with a massive FAAC allocation, control over state media, and the ability to fund patronage networks has a ready-made platform for a presidential run. The current system rewards that.

This is why the "where are the subsidy savings?" question is misdirected. The money went to the states. The question should be: what are the states doing with it to alleviate the plight of the people? Because the people living in those states are the ones bearing the poverty.

Until we start holding governors to the same standard we hold the President, nothing changes. The center cannot carry all the blame while the states carry all the cash.

crownprince2017:
I won’t lie, the honorable minister is right here.

I used to be one of those who parrot that the FG takes too much, but the fact is that the FG takes less and has more responsibilities relative to what it is earning. I now see it differently after a proper analysis of the numbers (s/o to @andrewfootie).

The FAAC pool consists of two core revenue sources: statutory revenue and VAT.

Things like petroleum taxes, petroleum royalties, government petroleum earnings, company income taxes, capital gain taxes, stamp duty, custom duties, excise duties, custom levies, etc are all statutory revenue sources.

Statutory revenue sources account for roughly 70% of the FAAC pool.

Based on the statutory sources, the FG takes 52% while the states & LG take 48%.

Meanwhile, on VAT, the FG takes just 10%, while the states & LG take 90%.

So in effect, the FG takes 52% of statutory revenue, and 10% of VAT. When you run the numbers, the FG takes an effective 30% of the entire FAAC pool while the states & LGs take 70%.

In addition to that 70%, states enjoy 100% of personal income taxes. Therefore, if you factor the grand total of all revenue, the FG’s effective share is even smaller (maybe down to 25% thereabout).

This is an anomaly. It shouldn’t be. The responsibilities of the FG (especially in context of fiscal policy) means that they should be earning more.

For example, the share of the national govt in revenue pool:

• Nigeria: 30%
• South Africa: 49%
• U.S.A: 66%
• U.K.: 93%

So on this one, I very well agree with the honourable minister of finance. 💫👌🏻

Copied from rufybaba

Thank you for sharing. No matter how many times this is explained, people remain stuck in their misbeliefs, even supposedly educated and enlightened ones.

Take the "where are the subsidy savings?" question. It reflects a misunderstanding of how the Federation Account works.

Subsidy was paid from the FAAC pool before distribution. When subsidy was removed, that money stayed in the FAAC. FAAC has a strict constitutional distribution formula. So the money went to all three tiers.

The evidence is clear:
Total FAAC disbursements rose from N10.09tn in 2023 to N15.26tn in 2024, then N21.90tn in 2025 .
State allocations rose from N3.58tn to N5.81tn in the same period .
Nasarawa's Governor Sule said his state's monthly allocation rose from N3.8bn–N4.5bn to N14bn–N16bn .
Governors themselves confirmed they are getting more. Yet Nigerians still ask the President where the savings went.

The real question is not "where are the savings?" It is "what are the states (which also collects for the LGAs) and the FG doing with the increased allocations?" That is where the accountability gap lies.

That is why I believe that Nigeria will move forward faster when we seek to understand how things work, be less partisan and hold everyone accountable.

SEC Boss on His Plan to Take NGX to ₦750 Trillion

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0sxpnsnRkmE

mikeapollo:
Can't you sneak in Access Bank for once?
With all your expertise and alayses?
What kind of ''deliberate wickedness'' is this?

Access Bank? I wish. That one pass me. But never say never.

Let's be honest—Access is not an interim dividend play right now. The CBN is withholding approval because of a capital breach (foreign subsidiary exposure at 19.3% instead of the 10% limit). Management has until May 2027 to fix it, but so far, no concrete divestment or restructuring has landed. Until they fix it, no interim dividend.

And before you accuse me of "deliberate wickedness"—we are in the same ship together. Access is my largest holding by number of units. So if I am omitting it, I am omitting myself.

It is not wickedness, just facts. If Access fixes the breach and declares an interim dividend, I will add it myself.

Imminent Dividend Play

My Buy consideration today.

megawealth01:
I have never called him any other name other than Jagaban, the name by which he is widely known and which he has consistently embraced. I recognise him as an elder and accord him the respect he deserves, but that respect will never stop me from speaking up for the masses who continue to bear the heavy burden of his administration’s policies and the hardship they face day after day.

Sir, I am not pointing at you specifically, but some of us do this—and we even do it to ourselves.

Beyond our right to free expression, we should all hold ourselves to the standard we discussed: name the policy, measure the outcome, and leave the insults out..

GeneralDae:
How should he ease the suffering? Sharing rice? distribution of cash? bringing back fuel subsidy? repegging naira?

Thanks. These are ideas introduced by the policies, they are worth discussing. Well done.

megawealth01:
“2027 Election: The Policy Continuity Story. Analysts assess an APC victory as the ‘lowest-disruption scenario’ for the markets, suggesting continuity in FX liberalisation and fiscal consolidation.”

You cannot discuss this without putting these issues on the table. How can we have this conversation without mentioning the names of the people responsible for the policies, especially those whose decisions are currently inflicting severe hardship on the masses? How can we discuss policy continuity without examining its human cost? If the policies are to continue, Nigerians deserve to know what they are continuing to endure, who is responsible, and whether the benefits being projected for the markets are translating into meaningful improvements in the lives of ordinary citizens.

Sir, agreed, we cannot discuss this without mentioning names. But we can mention names while separating personalities from their actions.

"Tinubu removed the subsidy." That is a fact. We can then ask: what has it done to transport costs, food prices, and small businesses? Has the savings gone to palliatives and infrastructure, or disappeared into the fiscal void?

"Tinubu liberalised the FX market." That is also a fact. We can ask: has the naira stabilised enough to attract investment, or has it deepened the cost-of-living crisis?

Naming the person is not the problem. Replacing analysis with name-calling is. Calling someone a "drugie" or "fraudster" tells us nothing about the policy, the outcome, or the alternative. It only tells us about the person saying it.

There is a difference between naming an actor and attacking them. "Tinubu removed the subsidy" is a factual statement. "Tinubu is a drugie" is an insult that shuts down conversation.

And the hypocrisy is glaring: the same people who call one leader a fraudster call another a saint using the same logic. The standard is not the action. It is the affiliation.

Name the policy. Name the outcome. Name the cost. Leave the insults out. They add nothing.

mikeapollo:
So Oando that has been keeping investors waiting for more than a year with AGM approval for N500b capital injection, N220b rights issue; is that one of the new ''ideas'' that you want us to discuss?

I tire for Nigeria!

If you ask me, the Oando issue is a today's issue. It is an anomaly in the sector. That is why it is one of the most discussed here.

Yes, Oando is exactly the kind of idea worth discussing—because it forces us to ask uncomfortable questions about execution, not just potential.

The N500 billion capital raise was approved by shareholders at the AGM in September 2026. The N220 billion rights issue (4.4 billion shares at N50) was filed with the NGX in February 2026. It has been pending regulatory approval for eight months.

So the "idea" here is not "Oando will fix its balance sheet." The idea is: how long does a company with negative equity get to keep a capital raise pending before the market loses patience? The OODP guarantee expires March 2027. If the rights issue is not approved and completed before then, the guarantee lapses and the company is exposed.

The market is already voting. The stock trades around N35—below the N50 rights price. That means investors are telling you they do not believe the raise will happen at that price. If it does happen, it will be because OODP absorbs the shortfall, which concentrates ownership further.

So yes, let's discuss the idea. The idea is not "Oando is a buy." The idea is "what does the market's discount tell us about execution risk?" That is a useful idea.