ahiboilandgas:
Example we saw the sign that naira was not sustainable at 305 ....so around july last year all my tb investments was liquidated to sock up euro at 392, dollars at 355......i have sold must now and my naira position has jumped 29 percent....without any headaches.....so tyres jum ping from 71 to 85k can be well accommodated .....if i waited an imagine that tb was risk free and hold till maturity i could have take a loss of over 25 percent in real purhasing power.....money is about it purchasing power....not number to me .....

Sir the argument was Nigeria paying back FGN bonds. Not currency risks. We all know this. Yes! The Naira is Big Bad and Risky!

ukay2:


Sir, the only way to avoid FEAR is to put your money under your PILLOWS

Loooooool

Na play in de play with you ooo

Hahahaha!

People don’t know if we start analysing all the risks with all investments down to the T. No one will invest. Even leaving your money in the bank is not a guarantee. You can still loose your money.


There is even the risk of having the money under your pillow and not being able to spend it, because currency have casted and everyone is hunting for food and water.

ukay2:


FEAR is False Evidence Appearing Real.

Some people were afraid that Nigeria will disintegrate in year 2000, still nothing happened.

Year 2050 will come and nothing will still happen.

Please keep investing and KEEP YOUR EYES ON THE BALL.

Thank you.

ahiboilandgas:
if imf is nursing fears about sustainability of Nigeria debts why woudnt small investors that dont have huge info ?did u read the report on the first qrt revenue vs debt service=99 percent.......why we will not nurse fear ? ....we where nursing fear last year crude started drop .....bam 8 months after naira is 445 all our interest for 2 years dissapper....

Your interest relative to FX vanished not the ability for the FGN to pay back though.

pluto09:



Don't compare USA economy with Nigeria o.
They can continue to print dollars to run their economy, Nigeria cannot print dollars to service her foreign denominated loans.

And talking about debt to GDP, that is not a good metric to measure debt sustainability.
Debt to revenue will be more appropriate. In q1 2020, Nigeria used about 99% of her revenue to service her debts. Q2 figures will likely be worse .Who does that and survive?

Bros. I am one of the pioneers of buy Eurobond funds or USD assets to save your investment. We will still be here and nothing will happen. Crude oil price went below 20 usd per barrel. What did we expect?

But for the government to start defaulting on Bonds. Lol! I say no more.

ojesymsym:
I like the bolded. It is the an important concept and is the reason why as soon as a financial institution starts having panic withdrawals then their end is imminent.
I have read and heard too many things that sometimes I am no longer able to separate fact from fiction but I do believe I have heard of a concept called paper money used in the context of creating wealth. Very complex phenomenon that I will not attempt to start explaining it.

You understand well enough.

Mcy56:



Coolcash, you'll need to apologize to this guy for handing your Kaya over to him.

Hahahahaha

Chai!

Una no go kee person!

GonFreecss1:


And what has that got to do with failure to pay it off?

The FGN is a system, though administrated by politicians every 4 or 8 years or whatever year applies. There are somethings that just don’t happen. There is a system in place for that reason.

A system even they know tampering with is suicide. Something devastating that will affect them too.

Did Buhari suddenly stop bonds or Tbills that were administered in Jonathan’s regime?

There is a reason they are called “FGN Bond” not “Jonathan’s Bond” or “Buhari’s Bond”.

AdaoraNK:


Better.

I think we need to understand that portfolio investors take serious considerations on political leaders and thier appointees to determine the future of what the country's future economic look out will be like in next 8 years

And what has that got to do with failure to pay it off?

The FGN is a system, though administrated by politicians every 4 or 8 years or whatever year applies. There are somethings that just don’t happen. There is a system in place for that reason.

A system even they know tampering with is suicide. Something devastating that will affect them too.

olujaidi:


How did you come to this conclusion?

It’s in the fine print. Banking and even insurance companies all work on the principle that not everyone needs their money or will have a problem at the same time.

That is why you see things like withdrawal limits and transfer limits. This are things put in place to avoid problems. The more scarce the currency the more the restrictions. CC dollars and other FX currency limits.

ahiboilandgas:
if u are given 200m and told u should not invest in fixed income or Nse ...so that will be the end .....

Nope. And this discussion is not about me. It’s for the fear created in others about fixed income. A fear that is not needed. Again, not everyone can run a business.

ojesymsym:
Trump has even been printing USD since.

Lool. It will end in tears.

ahiboilandgas:
person must not invest in invincible asset..
Their are more investments outside fixed income space in Nigeria..

Majority will still be affected. This things are all tied. They are all connected.

So if you don’t invest in fixed income, where do you invest? Banking fixed deposits? Stocks of banks? Lol.

ahiboilandgas:
...how will a sovereign default affect monies in saving accounts in Gtb a private enterprise insured by Ndic?...how will it other securities like shares in dangote or how will stop my rents coming ....dont compare Nigeria economy to america please.....may be Egypt or Argentina etc.....

Oga ahib. There is a way the economy works.

The NDIC is what again? Are they not the same government?

The insurance you are talking about is just 500K.

If we are also talking about how the long economy works, if majority right now wanted to withdraw their money. NDIC will not even be able to help give at 100K each to the people who have 100K and above.

I think I can compare Nigeria with the US because good economy or not, it’s the same thing. Their debt to GDP is extremely high. If push comes to shove, If they don’t default they will print more dollars. I don’t need to start explaining the problems with that.

unite4real:


Morgan capital, Afrinvest and Stanbic

Thank you very much.

AdaoraNK:


Then no dey hear.

What will make “Nigeria” start defaulting on bonds, then the next target will be Tbills, which if it happens I can guarantee your money in your bank account is also as good as not being able to be withdrawn.

All this fear will just make people not to invest, even the USA has massive debts. Better Economy? Still massive Gargantuan debts.

Does this mean people should rush and buy crypt0? Bt1c and the rest? Or Gold? And become speculators?

DeRuggedProf:


You don't believe in village Melody?
That band strong oo.
When they don't get you elsewhere, they apply to NSE...
How the guy dey take travel now...
First class travel no be after plane land
and you go siddon there ooo..

Hahahahaha!

Laugh don finish me.

BullBearMkt:

...good sign for the market. Tx.

Hehehehe. Abi!

unite4real:


This is a re-issue bond and it's very tricky. It's not as straight forward. You have to keep an eye on the yield. In this case, the indicative rate.

Even when u bid within this range, you will pay over 50M to secure the bond. There is 2 years and 10 months left on the bond and holders have chopped coupons 2 months ago.

Had it been it's a new issue then you will be buying at par. If you have not done this before, try to understand it very well because u fit vex after you are successful.

You will pay over 50M for the bond because the yield is lower than the coupon rate but your interest will be on 12.75% of the 50M face value, even though you actually paid over 50M to secure the bond and upon maturity, it's 50M you will be getting plus your last coupon

This is why for things like this, it’s advisable to calculate your YTM (Yield to Maturity), so you know how much you will actually get.

Oga “unite4real”, you are doing well.


Which stockbroker do you use?

ahiboilandgas:
Over 600 bn naira chasing fixed income at 11.3 ......new secured investments windows need to spring up .....this not a good sign

Some of that money will come to the NSE.

emmaodet:


Yes you are right but the bitter truth also is that a large percentage of people looking for job, underemployed or fully working would have been better off if they were trained and schooled on business and how the society works.
A lot of them will be so amazed about their innate skills that are dead and not realised or used because they didn't expand/broad their view of life.

Can I PM you sir? Something you said is of interest to me. Thank you in advance.

pluto09:



I was looking at financials of some US companies yesterday and was not impressed.
Prices have run ahead of earnings and most of their stocks are overpriced.
Is like people no longer care about earnings again.

People don’t. Coronavirus will expose why people should though.

RabbiDoracle:




I remembered that guy when I saw Neimeth.

I really wonder how people buy stocks.

He/she was warned though. I remember we all warned him/her repeatedly.

BullBearMkt:

Thanks @Marketapprentic for the kind words. We are only contributing the little we have to better the "community".
More indepth analysis to come.
Cheers.

Welcome back sir.

The gang is almost fully back.

zionaigbokhan:
A good Morning to all the ogas in the house, I'm tempted to sell my access bank and enter neimeth. All advice and criticism welcome. God Bless us all

The problem with investing is that it is boring. Many investors can’t stand it. So they change something that was otherwise okay, and try to become traders or jijoist overnight...

They have been saying it here that Access Bank is something waiting to explode, and you want to leave it and go to something that has already exploded and is most probably overvalued.

My advice to you is this, ask yourself why you bought Access in the first place and ask yourself why you want to change and buy Neimeth now.

DexterousOne:


The rates are abysmal
And our capital can command better returns elsewhere

I hope you are looking at bonds, mutual fund bond funds, and Equity?

Jejebabaa:


Wow, this kind of return is massive. Thumbs up to Zenith and GTB in the banking sector. The annual dividends I now get from them is almost the same with the capital invested in 2004.

This are the kind of things I like to see!

Thanks for sharing and congratulations.

OBAGADAFFI:
Guys, is shorting possible on NSE?

Not yet, but you can try some techniques... especially the Oracle style, or talking with your stockbroker. They can help.

emmanuelewumi:



Those who bought First Bank, Guinness, Nigeria Brewery are okay.

1000 units of first bank bought at N3500 in 1993 grew to 56,000 units due to bonuses
The bonus history of Nigeria brewery is far better than Nestle over the years.


Nothing much about Union Bank, if the dividends earned over the years were diversified and reinvested the Investor should be okay.

I just shared this to let people know that after having about 6 months to 12 months living expenses in money market funds, excess funds should be Invested in a business, FG Bond, stock market, real estate , Eurobond etc. If not the money will lose its value.

Always good to invest and make sure the Investments generate income and cash flow

Very important!

koonbey:


I don't understand why you are being this defensive. No need at all for the aggression, man.

I didn't and I don't disagree with you, and I didn't ask you to care either. I just said we'll revisit it later. Whatever I do with my portfolio won't affect yours and vice versa so discussing it then is just to review and learn from one another as we have been doing on this thread for years.

Afterall, it's not like I have a crystal ball. We're all investing based on our understanding and analysis.

Maybe I misunderstood you and made some assumptions, and for that I apologise.

ojesymsym:
Has to be USD. I had challenges transferring into their account pre Covid era coz of CBN restrictions on a lot of local transfer although my account officer said I should have called her when I wanted to do it to guide me on how to do the transfer.
Most local transfers without an intermediary bank do not go through, I expect it to be worse now.

Alright thanks for the info. You are doing well.

koonbey:


Good on you man. Let's continue to watch and revisit this by October.

Lol! At the end of the statement, I said it can keep running up if it wants to. I won’t touch it. The fundamentals on that company are just too bad for my standards to go on a buying spree for it.

So you buying it can do x100, I don’t care.

I have had many trading friends over my small financial years, financial cowboys including those who don’t know what they are doing, one thing has been consistent. Majority of them have crashed and burnt out. Lots of money gone...