₦airaland Forum

Oh surprise surprise Sanusi, banks can't lend to small businesses to boost employment, even in agriculture you mentioned farmers need small loans. Your monetary policy is where the problem lies, it's all well and good sacking corrupt bank bosses but you need help with your policies, recruiting a solid economist would be good for a start.

Sanusi speaks the truth, has enviable passion and honesty but fails woefully in his economic policies.

Federalism won't work simply because Nigerians don't know the meaning of fiscal discipline, you will have the federal government  printing money to bail bankrupt states out to prevent the economy from collapsing.

On a more serious note, a joker on this forum called "sagamit" argued with me that there was a massive gap between state capital and recurrent expenditure as seen at the federal level which is a blatant lie obviously. This is proof that we need to go back to issuing some or all of the allocation in exchangeable dollar certificates to tiers of government.

This will seriously tackle inflation- a lot of contractors executing the capital projects are foreigners and would accept these dollar certificates as they did in the past. Sanusi, where are you

The English team is full of plonkers anyways, same with the  FA- playing judge and jury over the Terry issue. Inter, AC, Juve, ManCity, Madrid, and possibly Chelsea will all have vacancies for next season- I'm sure you'll be back to work soon Mr. Capello.

Bad news, it's more worrying because this man is angling for Alausa and has some powerful backers. I think he'll be a disaster IMO, they better nail him quick!!

I have to be honest, I do feel disconnected to an extent. The fact that I get all the "gists" doesn't really count for as much a being on ground to feel what people are going through- even though I'm in Nigeria quite often throughout the year.

Most of us sit home comfortably and suggest solutions that are theoretically perfect but trust me when you go on ground and see for yourself it's a completely different ball game, talk less of living there.

Whats wrong with you people? Tonto's aight

This car is a 92-97 model. Why lie to start off with?

How come the price has increased by 3M within a month?

Heads must continue to roll. Next, Dieziani baby followed by Madam Ngozi please

Bloody hypocrite, removal of the subsidy was your idea, now you're trying to score cheap political points on a serious issue. You must think everyone is silly!!

Absolutely none! Everyone is calling for Nigeria to split forgetting that it's still the same ruthless, greedy, and illiterate politicians (and people) that would be in the entities. Our mindset as Nigerians has to change before we talk about any division (if it was different we wouldn't need to divide in the first place)- and that's gonna take decades unfortunately.

spyder880:
When I will eventually start building houses for sale, I will only be roofing the house, all other fittings will be suggested by the buyer and fitted in his presence. That way I keep all options open for the changing face of building materials.

That's all well and good but is it cost effective in comparison to building it from scratch?
Also, what legal issues should I be looking out for, for instance I'm negotiating two flats in a block of 6, they are at 70% completion. What papers should I have, I'm working with a lawyer but I just need to know if I'm missing anything.

I'm looking to buy at 70% completion and finish it to my taste. What do you think about that?

VoodooDoll:
I used to respect NOI, now not so much.

I'm afraid I have to agree with you, I've lost my respect for her. I weep for Nigeria, flagging off the mass transit scheme would somewhat of a difference BEFORE the removal along with other measures- it stinks of desperation now.

She ain't as bright as I thought she was, I guess Jona-Jona is rubbing off on her

Liverpool - bloody racist club!

Rubbish move because of the large percentage the informal sector contributes to the economy and how it has been affected by subsidy removal. A good move would have probably been to force down VAT coupled with loosening interest rates.

Sanusi again,  this man as brilliant as he is, really needs an economist advising him because saying the removal of the subsidy won't spiral the inflation rate upwards is nothing short incompetence as the CBN governor. Watch the value of the Naira in coming months.

With regards to your suggestions, CBN has no control on the excess crude and foreign reserves, that should be
directed to your finance minister.

abacus:
Hustler you want hustle die? See the message not the messenger. Okonjo will one be in FFK position as in an ex-minister. So let FFK talk.

She's been in his position before and nothing happened. The fuel subsidy passed it's expiry date long time ago. Someone had to end the madness although they way they went about it and measures put in place to cushion its effects leaves a lot more to be desired. FFK likes to talk especially since he's left government- a lot of times to get his name out there, he had his chance but didn't do anything of note.

I don't expect anything less from FFK. An attention-seeker, he got his chance and fluffed it. NOI managed to get Nigeria out of debt sometime ago, now he goes on about this rubbish. At least she's not had a case to answer at EFCC like you. NOI and SLS are equally at the heart of this policy.

I wish you the best guys, please try to keep it peaceful, else you will get arrested. I won't be able to make as I'm in Cambridge working for the week. I have been circulating the messages though.

I genuinely hope it makes a difference, enjoy!

On December 29, the police intercepted some suspected members of the sect said to be Fulani from the northern part of the country at the Berger area of the state as they were coming into the state', the intelligence report claimed.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201112310017.html

Is this really possible?

Beaf:
My friend, that is hubris.

So, the fact that mere cities generate much more money than our entire country does not say to you that there is something fundamentally wrong with Nigeria?
I'm shocked.

The average Nigerian is a mental slave to oil, subsidies and other absurd fuckry. Such types will always go abroad; see the depth of organisation and the immense revenues that adherence to standards and the lack of chaos can generate, only to return home screaming out inanities that further fuel the Nigerian crisis of chaos.

We need a total change in the way we think.

The fact that New York or London generates more capital than Nigeria tells me absolutely nothing given the fact that Nigeria's peculiarities is common knowledge- so no surprise there for me. Damn right, we need to change the way we think- the quicker we quit silly paper comparisons and find palliative solutions to our problem the better. I say we start with simple fiscal discipline and shedding the bulk of the recurrent expenditure.

And what does going abroad have to do with anything?

Mark noted that he supports the struggle of Nsukka people for the creation of Adada State out of the present Enugu State.
http://allafrica.com/stories/201112290733.html

Mark+Chime/Ekweremadu 2015- Already oiling the machinery. I like this guy's style.

Beaf:
[size=14pt]We have work to do - Cities with higher GDP than Nigeria[/size]

Nigeria: GDP (PPP) 2009 estimate $341.572 billion
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?sy=2007&ey=2010&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=694&s=NGDPD%2CNGDPDPC%2CPPPGDP%2CPPPPC%2CLP&grp=0&a=&pr.x=38&pr.y=14

[table]
[tr][td]Tokyo[/td][td]  Japan[/td][td] $ 1479[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]New York City[/td][td]  United States[/td][td] $ 1406[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Los Angeles[/td][td]  United States[/td][td] $ 792[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Chicago[/td][td]  United States[/td][td] $ 574[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]London[/td][td]  United Kingdom[/td][td] $ 565[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Paris[/td][td]  France[/td][td] $ 564[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Osaka[/td][td]  Japan[/td][td] $ 417[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Mexico City[/td][td]  Mexico[/td][td] $ 390[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Philadelphia[/td][td]  United States[/td][td] $ 388[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]São Paulo[/td][td]  Brazil[/td][td] $ 388[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Washington D.C.[/td][td]  United States[/td][td] $ 375[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Boston[/td][td]  United States[/td][td] $ 363[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Buenos Aires[/td][td]  Argentina[/td][td] $ 362[/td][/tr]
[/table]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_GDP (quoting PricewaterhouseCoopers)

Clearly oil is not everything, we have a lot of work to do in all facets of our economy, to raise our GDP to an acceptable level.
While Nigeria is ranked number 32 in the World by size of GDP(PPP), the true figure is revealed when our population is factored in; we hover around number 140 out of about 180. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

There are various sectors of the Nigerian economy that are begging to be tapped and the country would literarily explode financially. But certain aspects of our foundation first need to be addressed; nothing can be built on shaky ground.
In order to unleash our wealth creating potential, it would be necessary to educate the populace in several ways. There would be the normal school education, except that like happens in all progressive ecomies, it must be heavily skewed towards practical’s and field experience.
The other half of citizen education (and by far the most important), would be a solid  grounding in the country’s ideology (more on that later). Citizens need to have a common focus to be able to act in unison to achieve the common goals needed to haul the country up the developmental ladder.

Nigerian's are bound together by unnatural strings that have failed to keep our society from fracturing along ethnic, regional and religious lines; talk less of the population acting in unity.

No country can succeed or even function without a national ideology, currently we flounder in every direction and at every task, and that is because we lack the unity of purpose a shared ideology can forge. We do not even have a simple motto or phrase around which Nigerians can feel empowered and energised.
Ideology gives root to productive defined structures and feeds them to produce society that is always optimally productive. It creates the harmony that can drive a diverse people to act as one and achieve mighty things. Therefore, it goes without saying that Nigeria must discard her current chaotic structure, which is at the root of all of our problems, from corruption to tribalism.
We must instead, strive for a structure  that is ideologically driven, one that is egalitarian and inspires confidence in the young and old.  The new structure, optimised for our multi-ethnicity, would guarantee a sense of belonging and duty in every citizen. The new structure would need to be a deeply thought out form of true federalism.

With true federalism, a massively populated country like Nigeria would always put the right foot first and develop at a pace that would be the envy of other nations. True federalism is the job we need to complete. Can we do it?

A don talk finish, over to una. 

No basis for these comparisons for so many reasons. Economies in these countries have been expanding exponentially for decades. Note that top 20 cities account for a quarter of the world's GDP, so the world's wealth is far from a normal distribution.

If you look @ the per capita of these cities compared to that of Nigeria, the numbers would be even more worrying but it's not a fair comparison. A more accurate comparison would be getting Lagos in there somewhere. It's like comparing apples and oranges IMO.

Where's David Luiz? Why's Mikel playing wtf

Sagamite:
I would expect you to be "intelligent" enough to realise I asked you to try and figure out where most money of state governments go: Recurring expenditure and local engagements.

Not multinationals.

Are you saying this majority should be satisfied with dollar certificates?

FYI, bonds are securities.

Securities can be stocks, bonds or derivatives.

FYI, the interest rates in Euro zone is not almost nil. It is 1 point something.

FYI, the lower interest rates, the lower the inherent risks.

I'm obviously not asking them to disburse all the allocation in dollar certificates, that's impossible- it's common sense. State governments spend a good chunk of their allocation on capital project with foreign partners. I gave you a case in point- Lagos state where the capital expenditure actually exceeds the recurrent. It would make a massive difference to SLS's monetary framework, so since you have insiders in the CBN why don't you pass on the message- don't worry I'll take no credit.

I'm sorry the Eurozone's interest rate is sssooo much more than nil,  its 1%- my apologies fella. Lower interest rates= lower inherent risks- WHAT??
I'm finished with you because this confirms that you have no clue what you're talking- I thought as much, but I gave you the benefit of the doubt.

We offered returns of 7% on the Euro bonds, it was oversubscribed obviously everyone knows there's money to pay up in Nigeria. Bonds and interest rate have an inverse relationship, low interest rates in the Euro actually devalue those bonds and vice versa. With these bonds, you actually want the interest rates in the Eurozone to go up because that means there's too much money in their system and they're tightening.  To give you a clue that it was way overpriced or unnecessary IMO- South Africa's was pegged at about 5%- a much more robust economy.

It's hard work trying to explain all this to an "intelligent" economist I tell you, I would go deeper but for much more people reading this thread. But trust unless we try to dissect the logic behind all these moves and think outside the box, we will all continue to live in perpetual darkness- literally!!

Sagamite:
Amsorry. So you are saying State governments to pay recurring expenditures with dollar certicates?

Really?

I hope you realise there are circumstances in economics where you would want your currency to lose value?

Do you realise in capital markets what happened 5 minutes ago is virtually irrelevant? You are still stuck in this mental rot of "if it is going down, then it is bad".

In efficient markets, the market corrects itself almost instantly. It is almost consistently a blank plate. So what happened to Greece or Spain is unimportant, what is important is the assessment of current factors. Things that go down can as well go up!

You are "intelligent", try to read, digest, and then put forward a reasonable argument. I think you're missing the reading bit and I'm having to remind you of quite a lot. I said use dollar certificates to fund capital project where multinationals are involved,  the most intensive capital projects are run by multinational companies due to access to fund and technologies unavailable locally. This would free the CBN of printing the Naira and having to tighten the monetary policy in an already choked-up economy.

I think you're also confusing two things, investing in currencies via the capital markets can be either through debt or securities. SLS and his team bought Eurobonds (debt) not stocks(securities), whose value depend on interest rates in the Euro zone which is almost nil. The DMO already pays interest on this money and you wonder why people are suffering??
Our leaders are using our taxes to gamble and we sit here and sing the high praises to them heaven?? Erhh,  No.

He's intelligent, but he can be better. That should be the attitude of every Nigerian.

Sagamite:
We are talking about the last 2 months (as you said) right? I did check my facts. And this is what my source was saying: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16226543

That is not an indication of losing AAA but a suggestion of it might lose it. That is why I said "I dare say".

Incompetence?

Really?

If you know nothing about economics, you have to keep quiet.

It is perfectly acceptable to not be able to predict the future and future behaviours of people on aggregate. Only an arm chair critic will sit down and scream it is easy.

You really need to answer my questions about whether you are suggesting state government shout start operating in a foreign currency.

As a matter of fact, Sanusi never attended LSE.

I don't think with your exposure that you are far from economics you are in a position to even be criticing his policies.

Me being far from a career as an economist does not mean I don't understand the basic fundamentals of pricing, demand, and supply. I don't care where SLS went and I never mentioned disbursing foreign currency, that's illegal. If you take a deep breath and read carefully, I said dollar certificates, which we did in the past and kept the Naira and other economic indexes fairly stable. The CBN has absolutely no need to monopolize the dollar at the expense of inflation.

If you're saying that it's perfectly fine to invest, knowing that your money is going to lose value in the next 5 years, when you have better options in the short-mid- and long term, then I pity those who'll trust you with their hard-earned cash.

Spain did lose their S&P credit rating, OK forget about Spain, Greece's credit rating was downgraded to "Junk" status- and we still open our eyes and invest in their national currency- You call that Intelligence?? Surely you know better than that as an "economist".

Sagamite:
My source is more reliable to me than your source is reliable to you.

A direct source is more useful than an anonymous, faceless online source.

Mine is better.

Drop in AAA rating is hindsight. I am sure you were not saying that 2 months ago when they bought the securities. Even the industry experts were not saying that.

More importantly, Euro countries are not losing the AAA ratings left and right. I dare say none has. You are just projecting the fears you hear to back up your hindsight. Things I am sure you never said 2 months ago. Such are not valid arguments.

In economics you try and assess the future, you don't predict it.

There was no schoolboy error here, it is merely an assessment that did not meet expectations. It happens the best and most intelligent worldwide.

What proportion of the funds did Lagos get?

What proportion of States in Nigeria have capital requirements that exceed recurrent budgets?

Are you saying state governments should pay local contractors in dollars?

As I earlier qualified it, he is the most intelligent of the public figures I have seen.

Obviously Lagarde is wrong as she has never met me. [Straight face]

Dude, if you're going to argue, at least do some research, there's no point in wasting my time when you don't have any facts or haven't done your homework.

No country in the Euro lost their AAA rating C'mon bro, what world are you in? Spain did, Italy did, the U.S, I believe Greece did, The French and British are most likely next,  so what are you on about? I'm far from an economist and I know this simple facts.
Spain loses AAA rating as Europe battles debt- http://www.latinamericanpost.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5138&catid=3:latinoamerica&Itemid=38

Assessment that did not meet expectation?? Hindsight?? Sounds like you're trying to make an excuse for incompetence- which is what was. It was an error, Aganga sheepishly acknowledged it once, when they ended buying up the Chinese currency. I don't need to answer the rest of your questions, if you don't get the point- I'm sorry, go do your homework, find out and bring the facts back not questions.

We as Nigerians, need to start thinking deeper about our problems because it would require more than Forbes, The IMF,  an Oxbridge PhD, and the usual rhetoric to solve our problems. Some issues do not require a rocket scientist, others do. Sanusi is an excellent banker, very well educated (LSE), but definitely not the best Nigeria has to offer. I would argue that anyday, anytime!