Addicted2Women:


When i went to China, i was shocked, i saw them manufacture Rolex Replicas and Audemar Piquet replicas, i bought 3 Rolex for $400, came back to New York and went to a Rolex shop and sold each one for $13,000
A

Common bro not everyone is an illiterate. How you can sell China Rolex to New York jewellers who use microscopes I'd love to really get myself to believe you but can't.

To the point op: it depends on your appetite for risk. You seem like you have a ready made high end market. If I were you, I'd go into jewelries bit by bit but also sell on hair cuts etc. to the same clientele. In business, relationship is everything.

mycar:
The best form of defense is to attack. Government shouldn't have given them that free space, it should have been paid directly to the supplier from the CBN.


Buhari can't spend all his time in office probing pass events while more are springing up everyday. Get all the loopholes blocked.

Introduce a system that will make it difficult for people to cheat, that's what intelligent leaders/people do.


Build a system that even if you are not there, things will still work well.

Great idea but I think this will only create more problem- FG shouldn't be making purchases on behalf of the private section with FOREX- those two (FG & FOREX) are not a good combination.

I agree that the best way is to block all the loopholes; I think the best option is to get the private the banks and financial institutions to only release FOREX to the suppliers/schools directly- this will even boost their cash reserves too.

I can see Bukola Saraki contesting against PMBuhari in 2019. That'll be very interesting.

We can't change God's will. God never changes, there are circumstances that will not change unless we do something about it, like Hezekiah- it was Gods will that he cry out to God for more time.

It's never His will that any man perishes but that by prayer we change the situation. That's why the Bible asks us to pray, we don't change His will by prayer but prayer allows us to operate in His perfect will. Shalom

I know results are still trickling in but a few lessons I can take away from the recently concluded election:

Nigerians are more aware now and the influence of money on the electorate continues, but is reducing.

Technology is critical to the future of development in Nigeria- it is the surest way to stem corruption.

When Nigerians come together we can make things happen- I'm looking forward to a SS/SE/SW/NC Alliance, that'll be very interesting.

If Buhari wins (a big if), it'll be a lesson to all Nigerians- keep chasing your dreams and there's always a chance that it'll become a reality.

Finally, a word of congratulations to Prof Jega- your name has definitely been written on the Indelible Sands of Time in Nigerian History.

Feel free to add more valuable lessons to be learnt from this election.

In order to win the Presidency in 2015, the successful party will have to control the majority of Nigeria's 36 state Governorships.

- In the 2015 elections half of the State Governors will have completed their maximum two terms, so state-level elections are likely to be extremely competitive across the country.

- Of the 28 governorship elections taking place, 18 states (or two-thirds) will have vacant seats. 10 of these 18 states have 40.9% of all registered voters.

- This numerical analysis indicates both the PDP and APC could each secure 17 states in Governorship elections.

- To win, a Presidential candidate needs an overall majority and at least 25% of the votes in two-thirds of the states (24 states). On current indications, if President Goodluck Jonathan runs as PDP candidate he is likely to get an overall majority. However, he may not automatically get the necessary one-quarter of the vote in two-thirds of states and the FCT.

- Therefore if voting patterns are similar to 2011 a run-off election situation would be likely. This would be a historic first under Nigeria's present electoral system.

However, this run-off outcome is likely to be determined by the choice of candidates put up by the main APC opposition party and the issue of North-South 'zoning'.

- It is difficult to predict the outcome of this run-off. If it does not favour an outright win for the PDP, it may further weaken its chances at the subsequent gubernatorial elections given that half of the seats are vacant.

2011's results are only a useful guide to 2015 if conditions stay the same, including INEC's conduct in voter registration and election management.

- Therefore, with high incentives for many actors to rig, it will be important for stakeholders in democratic consolidation to focus on issues such as registration and collation, which are likely to be hot in all states
.....................
The current political alignment of state government is as follows. Note that APGA and Labour Party states have tended to ally with the ruling PDP party.

People's Democratic Party (PDP) - 20

All Progressives Congress (APC) - 14

All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) - 1

Labour Party (LP) - 1

2011 Results Analysis

In May 2011, gubernatorial polls took place and results were announced in 25 states, excluding the Imo (re-run) and 9 others which were not due for re-election. 20 states had one-term sitting governors running for re-election, and 5 states had vacant seats after Governors had completed two terms. Their average share of the votes looked like this:

Category Number of States Average winning share of vote

1. Sitting Governor gets second term 17 69.01%

2. Non-incumbent candidate wins 8 54.08%

2a> where opponent beats one-term sitting governor who is running for re-election 3 47.3%

2b> where candidate wins 'empty' seat where there is no first-term governor running for re-election 5 58.16%

2b.1> of which candidate from immediate previously ruling party wins 'empty' seat 3 62.7%

2b.2> of which candidate from party previously in opposition wins 'empty' seat 2 51.15%

3. Average winning share of PDP sitting Governors 15 68.22%

4. Average winning share of non-PDP sitting Governors 2 74.95%

Based on this we can see that in 2011 elections being an incumbent governor typically gives an advantage of 15% when seeking re-election (69.01 - 54.08 = 14.93%).

The marginal advantage of being an incumbent party contesting a 'vacant' seat - i.e. where a governor has completed two terms and is not coming back - is calculated by subtracting the average vote-share of winning non-incumbents from the average vote share of those who won seats just vacated by the same party: 11.2% (62.7% - 51.5%)

Some other observations:

If you're contesting for an 'empty' seat, you're likely to win by a larger share of the vote (62%) if you're from the party which was just in power than if you're from an opposition party (51%).

Anyone not in power at the start of the race (whether national opposition or ruling party, whether running against a sitting governor or an empty seat) typically gets a lower margin of victory (47%) than incumbents running for re-election (69%).

The advantage of being an incumbent first-term governor running for re-election is not larger for PDP Governors. In fact, non-PDP incumbents won with average 75% share of the votes, whereas PDP incumbents won an average of 68%. It thus seems that being in power locally matters more than being allied with the national ruling party, although more research and larger samples would be needed to prove this.

2015 Election Projections

Using the trends in the 2011 elections, if other conditions remain equal, based on the current landscape, we make the following preliminary projections.

State Governorships

There are 28 gubernatorial seats up for election in 2015:

10 incumbents are contesting for a second term

Three are in PDP-controlled states

Seven are in APC-controlled states.

18 vacant seats

Fourteen are in PDP-controlled states

Four are in APC-controlled states

Category Current No. of State Governorships Projections of State Governorships to be won 2015

Incumbents: Based on 85% Rule

APC 7 6 in APC states = 6

PDP 3 3 in PDP states1 in APC states = 4

Seats to be vacant: Based on winning vote share in 2011 gubernatorial elections: 60-40%

APC 4 2 in APC states6 in PDP states = 8

PDP 14 8 in PDP states2 in APC states = 10

Assumed to be incumbent in states with no election in February 2015

APC 3 3

PDP 3 3

APGA 1 1

LABOUR 1 1

TOTAL

APC 14 17

PDP 20 17

APGA 1 1

LABOUR 1 1

TOTAL 36 36

Projections:

If the rule that incumbents win 85% of the time with a 60% share of votes holds, for the 10 states with incumbents running for re-election in the governorship elections, a likely outcome is that the APC wins 6 seats while the PDP wins 4.

There are 18 vacant seats which will have no incumbent contesting. In 2011, the PDP won 60% of such seats while opposition parties (although before uniting as the APC) collectively won 40%. Working with this admittedly crude assumption (based on just five vacant seats contested in 2011), the PDP is therefore likely to win 10 governorship states while the APC gets 8 states.

Therefore in states holding elections in 2015, it is likely that the PDP ends up with 14 states and the APC with 14. If these figures are added to the other states without governorship elections, the tally is:

PDP: 14 states + 3 non-participating states = 17

APC: 14 states + 3 non-participating states = 17

APGA = 1 non-participating state

Labour = 1 non-participating state

Total 36 states

This could mean that PDP and allied parties will control 19 states, fewer than the 22 it currently does. However, these are broad generalisations and it is difficult to identify the specific states in question.

Presidential election projections

Going by the initial rule we applied, if the PDP candidate is incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan, he might seem to have an 85% chance of winning with about 60% of the votes. However, given Nigeria's Federal system, the proportion of vacant governorship seats and the rapidly changing alliances in the political landscape, other variables may come into play.

We can assume that states largely support the same party for Presidential elections as they do for Governorship elections (although in 2011 a number of mainly northern states, as well as ACN states in in an electoral pact with PDP in the South-West, bucked the trend).

Going by the 85% assumption, if local incumbency is the prime factor, since 22 of the states are currently PDP or allied parties in the current dispensation, the PDP may win the Presidential vote in 21 states (19 PDP states and 2 APC states), and the APC meanwhile would win Presidential votes in 15 states (12 currently APC and 3 PDP states). This is likely to be enough for a simple majority.[1]

If however, we go by the projected trends in the governorship elections as useful pointers, we end up with a different result, with both parties winning in 17 states each.

The absolute numbers of voters cannot be predicted but it may be significant that the APC goes into the election controlling two states with the largest number of registered voters, Lagos (6.1 million registered voters in 2011) and Kano (5 million).

Also remember that section 134 (1) of Nigeria's 1999 Constitution lays down two conditions for a victory; one is a majority of votes cast, but the other is a minimum of 25% of registered voters in two-thirds of Nigeria's states (i.e. 24 states).

Currently, with support of Labour and APGA, the PDP controls enough states to ensure that. However, in 2011 Bauchi state did not reach the needed minimum even when controlled by PDP, delivering only 16.05% of the vote for the party's candidate, while Katsina, also PDP, only just scraped over the minimum with 26.1%. So it is reasonable to assume that if support or turnout is low in PDP-ruled northern states, not all may deliver the 25% minimum needed to secure a win for the party's candidate.

In such a circumstance, the Constitution states that candidates would be forced into a second-round run-off election. Such a situation has not previously occurred under Nigeria's present electoral system.

Therefore, of three possible outcomes - outright PDP win, outright APC win, or a run-off election - the most likely outcome based on our projections from current data is that neither party would manage both factors for an outright victory so there would need to be an additional run-off election.

Neither is it clear which party that situation would favour. On one hand a nationally incumbent party may retain more resources to continue mobilising, but on the other, both the voting public and important political intermediaries may perceive momentum in the opposition which galvanises support for them popularity.

If the presidential election does not favour an outright win for the PDP, it may also further weaken the PDP's chances at the subsequent gubernatorial level given the proportion of vacant seats (18) to incumbent re-elections (10). The deciding states for the presidential election and the overall fortune of the two parties will be those 18 vacant seats, which also happen to have 54.4% (40.03 million) of 2011's registered voters, including 10 of the 14 states with the largest number of registered voters, underlining just how open this race really is.

Some Caveats

Incumbency advantages are very dependent on specific local factors, such as candidates, coalitions, party machinery, electorate sophistication, local issues and more; therefore it is hard to make a solid prediction on the outcomes. Importantly, the 2015 elections appear as if they will be a two-party race in all states, although this may also change if heavyweights who lose primaries in the two major parties decide to leave them.

In such a situation, the advantages of incumbency calculated from the 2011 multi-party elections may have less predictive value at the gubernatorial elections because the APC is a merger of three parties with varying strengths; the ACN, CPC and ANPP. This is additionally complex in states (such as Kano, Imo and Kwara) where PDP governors crossed over to the APC.

In that case, the advantage of incumbency would go beyond 11% because we would need to consider what proportion of the 2011 vote for other parties in the merger (i.e. CPC and ANPP) will be scooped up by APC. Additionally, in most of the states where the governor crossed over from the national ruling PDP with some or all of his supporters, the PDP still has a solid state structure.

While we are able to make some plausible projections where incumbents are re-contesting in 2015, it is difficult to do so for the 18 vacant seats because the parameters so far cannot test the strength of the opposition merger. What we can say however is that these seats will be hotly-contested.

Since presidential elections occur before governorship elections, it is possible these projections may have little predictive value on the outcome of the presidential elections because the patterns of voting for the governorship and presidential elections are considerably different.[2]

Moreover, there is no clear pattern - beyond an assumed incumbency advantage - by which states vote for a presidential candidate. Several factors come into play such as the interaction of local and national coalitions, incumbency, popularity of presidential candidates, local actors - governorship candidates and power brokers, relative party strength and structure, type of identity allegiances, and historical political behaviour of states.

The large number of vacant seats (18 of 28 up for election) will test the cohesion and organisation of the parties. One possibility is that the incentive for an outgoing or 'lame duck' Governor in a state with strong presence of an opposition party to 'deliver' that state to their presidential candidate is highly variable.

Another important qualifier is candidates' combination and popularity: We cannot fully factor this variable until the APC selects its candidate, but identity considerations are likely to be strong influences.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201411070362.html

I have always predicted that elections in 2015 will be closest Nigeria has ever experienced, if it remains free and fair. This will only deepen our democracy- God bless Nigeria

It's obvious you are a computer genius. I'll advise you to enrol in technical IT course but try to strengthen your English and Physics. The difference between a C6 and D7 can be only a few marks. All the best!

spoony:

Hi, I'm sorry I've just checked with the airlines and no changes of name are permited. I honestly didn't know this, neither the fact that the tickets are non-refundable. £2700 wasted. Oh well...

You usually can't change the name but can change the date a few times for £100, so it doesn't have to go to waste after all.

Hundreds of Nigerian criminals will be sent home to serve out prison sentences under a deal set to be struck by ministers within weeks.

Talks are continuing into reaching a compulsory prisoner transfer agreement, which could see more than half of the 500 criminals from Nigeria currently in UK jails repatriated.


Prisons minister Jeremy Wright told MailOnline how 'more foreign prisoners must serve their sentences in their own countries'.


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2460532/Hundreds-Nigerian-prisoners-sent-home-serve-sentence-deal-ease-pressure-UK-jails.html

I guess the question now is, is there enough space in Nigerian prisons to accomodate these criminals?

The Simpsons by a M.I.L.E... family guy's too vulgar.

MAYOWAAK: If the black box flight recorder is never damaged during a plane crash, why isn't the whole airplane made out of the stuff?

Don't know much about airplanes but I think the material used to make the black box will make the plane too heavy to fly. The body of the plane needs to be quite hollow and light for it fly in the air.

mechummy: I'm hairy on my neck and back....guys love touching my neck cos of the hair....then I'm also lucky to have very long and full hair thanks to my mum (her hair is not less than 15 inches)

You try small sha, I don't know about hairy necks and bits though

Looking like it's about to degenerate into one them NID vs NIN threads. Anyways, the truth is that we can NEVER feel the plight of the common man or analyse the day-to-day affairs in Nigeria sitting in our flats in Peckham etc- It's impossible! We know about what's happening in Nigeria but we are emotionally disconnected, and you really can't blame us- long distance relationships never work .

I go to Nigeria every year and I still can't get my head around how certain most things work and honestly, it seems a lot of things are getting worse. I think most of the development in Nigeria has to come from the Nigerians at home- they understand the fabric of the system far more than us.

Africa's wealthiest man, Aliko Dangote, has signed a multi-billion dollar deal with banks to finance the building of an oil refinery in Nigeria.

The refinery would be the largest in Africa, turning Nigeria into a petroleum exporter, he told the BBC.

Nigeria is Africa's biggest oil producer but lacks refining capacity and has to import most of its fuel.

The West African state is often hit by fuel shortages, and conflict over control of its oil wealth.

People in Nigeria's oil-producing southern Niger Delta region are among the country's poorest and accuse the government and oil companies of failing to develop the area.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-23960843

This man is an inspiration to so many of us, he's what we call a visionary Nigeria; it also looks like the business landscape is changing in Nigeria. God bless you Mr. Dangote.

Atheist:-D:


They do. It is a lot less. Cheating is a complicated thing. It is not genetic or evolutionary based however. Dont listen to those who claim it is... they dont even believe in evolution . They only quote it to explain their weaknesses.

So, rather than cheating, why not go for an open marriage where you are free to sleep with whomever you want by agreement? Isnt that a better option than all the lies?

What a load of trash! Men in the West don't cheat as much men in the developing world? You must be joking my friend. They are just as human as all other men, they are prone to cheating and cheat equally as all other men if we're to go by stats.

We need to stop that crap of putting people in the West on a pedestle. Make no mistakes, cheating is wrong- I think it happens as a result of cultural and family orientation- just my opinion though.

Tithes and Offering. I'm a born giver

What's with wearing sutana though? Abi dbanj na cele?

I thought Chime was abroad for treatment, how come he voted yesterday?

I'm in Belfast for work for a sometime and need to know if there are there African Restaurants in Belfast.

Doesn't seem too different. I'm licking my lips awaiting the PS4

Nothing new. France has been doing it since last year, no big deal if you have nothing to hide

That's crazy. What's it with everyone retiring??

How about bathing everyday?

You're decent looking but need to shed some bloody weight

Kzinne: only in nigeria where women have very few underwears. can imagine after all , still wash and wear delicate stuff like underwears. those things should b disposable. use once and throw away. naija women na wa for u na o

Wetin dis 1 dey yan. If you have nothing better to say, it's better to

Nigeria give nothing even if you reach the moon.... well done Ghana!

Praise the Lord!! Who are we to judge

thelastPope:

Prior to Ernest Ndukwe's appointment as NCC boss, there was no GSM in Nigeria but now there is GSM and even 3G! Does that mean we are very happy with his performance at the NCC? Your logic is flawed. The world is growin. Nigeria is growing. A lot of new technology and processes are coming on stream. Some of these changes will come into effect, it doesn't matter whoever is at the helm of affairs. Of course, some others will require a visionary person to implement. But the most important function in the NCAA is the day to day management that ensures the safety and comfort of the flying public and so far, Demuren seems to have come short there.

I don't know about you but most Nigerians I know are very happy and indeed grateful with Ernest Ndukwe's achievement at NCC. In my books, it takes a visionary to go from O to several direct flights between Nigeria-US.

Flawed logic is when people like Stella Oduah gets to keep her job whilst an accomplished pro gets the sack. NIGERIA's logic is fundamentally flawed