₦airaland Forum

nedu2000:
organising the confab was a good move by GEJ but i have my reservations on how its to be implemented esp the aspect of resource control. Majority of northern states inaddition to the likes of osun,ebonyi,benue solely rely on federal allocation and would need to be spoon-fed on their individual resources and how to raise revenue.

DVanguard:
I laugh at ur analysis. Fadanhunsi is not a match of Aregbe in ilesha while Omisore cannot deliver IFE to PDP. Omisore election is different frm Presidential election. My question is what will be the achievement of GEJ in Osun or IFE that will warrant them to vote him.
Which of the Oduoye, the late Oduoye or which one. Story for the gods, Osun is locked down for APC.

Bayswater:
I am bold to say this election is in the bag but we have to work really hard and not rest until results are announced on the 30th.

Bayswater:
I'm aware of the charade of the senatorial primary that was belatedly organised by Aregbe. Words on the street indicates Fadahunsi will clinch it based on the Ife/Ijesha factor you mentioned above.

I was told omoworare is a prince of the Ife kingdom (Aderemi) but Omisore still holds the ace. I am aware Fadahunsi is well loved by all in Ilesha where he is from, even my APC friends from iluusha love him. That again should count for something in the presidential election.

ROSSIKE:
It is not hunger. It is greed. Do any of those people look like they can't afford sweets or a pack of noodles?

Kenai:
Egift is the shirtless one in the picture below...

www.nairaland.com/attachments/2223139_fash2_jpeg12038369386960c6ec905bc3f900b80a

Bayswater:
It seems you know what went down in the APC primaries in Osun.

What can you say about the senatorial contest between Fadahunsi of PDP (Ilesha) and Jide Omoworare of APC (ile Ife) considering the fact that those are two of largest voting blocs in Osun state. Who do you think will carry the day?

I have my opinion already, I just want to see if I can get a different view.

Bayswater:
You people just don't know what's up.

If someone as very inconsequential as me would be getting close to 1000 votes for GEJ in Oyo state, Just imagine the number of votes his numerous big players will get.

PDP has a lot foot soldiers in the southwest that can influence other people (maybe through past good deeds and some other means), I can't say same about the APC and Buhari.

DVanguard:
Fantasy at its best. The people of SW are gullible they wont vote their own but will vote a man that spent 5 yrs,he is yet to show significant development in their zone. But GEJ will win SS because of being son of the soil regardless of performance.
i dey laugh ooooo.
28th is around the corner, we would see. Your Oyo analysis is total crap, i would not argue with you because you are not from the region and you dont understand the dynamics of Oyo politics. (Imagine you saying Ajimobi is not a grass root mobilzer).

DVanguard:
GEJ to win South West is a very difficult task but politics is a game which requires major and minor players. Lots of factors are against GEJ winning SW.
There are two major schools of thoughts in the South West;
1. The regional champions who believe they need to grow from their performance in the region to national politics. (The Progressives led by Tinubu)
2. The national champions who believe they can muscle they national spread on the regional SW politics. (The Conservatives led by Obj).
The two minority schools of thoughts in the SW;
1. The disgruntled or out of favour champions that falls out due to power play in their respective states in the progressive camp. (Progressive fallout – SDP and Afenifere)
2. The selected few that due to their closeness to the President and the fallout of their seeking relevance by taking order from Ota while they can do that with their closeness to the Presidency. (Conservative fallout)
South West politics is very dynamic; lots of factors determine their voting pattern. Local election cannot be used as a yardstick to decide their voting pattern. Most times their votes are determined by the value and quality of the candidate in the National Politics.
Factors SW consider when choosing candidate nationally based on history of their voting pattern since 1999 – 2011.
1. Perceived victim of victimization by the particular group/zone of people against a candidate. (for example yar’adua’s cabal against GEJ 2010).
2. National policies like fuel subsidy. (Fuel price in SW region is most times within the regulated price because of the understanding of its sensitivity of the policy to them).
3. They are most times less concerned about the National Politics as long as their local champion delivers on their said promises. (If one of their local champions is involved then they tend to partake).
4. They check the performance of the candidates based on the current reality on ground and pinch their tent with the one that will defend their interest most.
5. Political leaders are respected based on the perspective of the area within the regions they control. Political leader must have contributed meaningful to the area or state he belongs to, he must be seen to be humble and not abusive and must be seen to have a sense of direction.

GEJ lost the battle for SW by committing the worst blunder by allowing two major gladiators in a region to fight him. (Obj & Tinubu). Tinubu relevance in SW politics started 2003 when he was the only governor to survive the tactical blunder committed by his party members (AD) and Afenifere. Since then he had made his in root to the hearts of SW by producing Governors of impeccable characters and known for excellence in their professional field before joining politics. These are some of the factors that affect PDP in some of the state elections. Tinubu has been successful even in the face of defeat in Ondo and Ekiti election. Ondo Election was not about Tinubu but the exemplary performance of the governor Mimiko against an unknown Akeredolu (a legal luminary), it was a political blunder while that of Ekiti state is a politics that I don’t understand but the popularity of Fayose cannot be overlooked regardless of his thug like character. (Might be linked to the dissatisfaction of the civil servants against fayemi’s policy).
Obasanjo might not be relevant in the local politics of SW but he has always been the stabilizing factor in the SW conservative party. He single handed ensured the relevance of PDP in SW with finance and political position giving to his lieutenants. His inability to show significant development in the SW has not made him accepted as the Leader of Yoruba’s after being the President of Nigeria and them voting en-mass for him 2003. He has been a major source of success of PDP in the SW.

State by state analysis will be presumed on five factors namely;
1. Performance
2. Political structure
3. Political gladiators
4. Perspective of the ordinary SW.
5. Ethnicity/religion

EKITI;
Ekiti state will be a very tight race. The charisma and the do-or-die attitude of the Governor will play a major role, either positive or negative march 28 will decide. The incumbent will have a lot on his way because he still enjoys the goodwill of his people based on his flawless victory in his election. The negative aspect of it is that fayose have not been able to manage his success within his party rank. The state primaries have caused lot of problem between him and some of the gladiators that helped him during his election. Like Senator Arise and Senator Gbenga Aluko etc. He runs the state PDP like his personal property. He calls the shot which can go well for him or work against him. The opposition in the state have succeeded in painting him in bad light among the elite which has a minimal impact in local politics but heavy impact in National politics. The APC succeeded in mending fence with their arch rival LP candidate, he is back into their fold. The perspective of an average Yoruba man politically still believes in the school of thoughts of Awolowo, which Tinubu’s group have clung to over time. If APC follows Awolowo's ideology is a discussing for another day.
Finally, since 2011 politically the SW have been marginalised from National politics and no meaning full development in Ekiti from the Federal Govt., and there is this noise of ‘na our son make he dey there’ wont they want their fellow ethnic person be there too.

VERDICT:
Fayose is loved as a person but his ability to convince his people to vote GEJ is another task to see his doggedness against all odds.
If he succeeds PDP 55% while APC 45%, but if he fails PDP 35% APC 65%.

ONDO;

Ondo State is a state that the governor has lost his goodwill from the people due to lots of labour issue. The movement of from LP to PDP has weakling his political strength. The people he met in PDP moved to APC and some of the aggrieved members of his former LP who could not get recognition based on the movement from LP to PDP fell out and joined APC. Formerly the politics of Ondo state is shared along senatorial zones. Ondo North is the strong base of APC led by Boroface and co, Ondo Central is the strong base of LP led by the Gov himself Mimiko while Ondo South is led by late Agagu camp PDP. The current fall out has made APC strong in two senatorial zones while PDP Ondo Central.
Mimiko is the all in all today in Ondo PDP, while APC has leaders in every zone of the strength of Mimiko (but not as strong as mimiko). Their combination would defeat the campaign strategy of mimiko in National politics which can be impossible in Local politics. The problem with PDP in SW will be on what performance bases he will campaign. If he as a Governor campaigned based on his achievement in his state what will he campaign with as the president’s achievement in Ondo state.
The love his people had for him 2012 is lost which will play also a major role in his ability to convince the electorate. Our son syndrome will also play a major role.
The perspective of GEJ in this area is very poor. Forget the endorsement of falae and afenifere, Falae has never won any election he sponsored since 2003 in Akure. He is respected but that has never transcended to votes.

VERDICT;
PDP 30% APC 70%

OSUN ;

This is a no go area for PDP. Sen. Omisore is the only political gladiator in PDP. Omisore will have to slug it out with the Governor and the interest of the God father of APC VP Osinbanjo town. The other senatorial zone is a complete no go area for PDP.
Osun state is a complete lock down area for APC. Lots of factors favour APC. Discussing this state is a waste of energy.

VERDICT;
PDP 20% APC 80%

OYO;

This is a state that parades lots of gladiators in different zones of the state. But PDP have played lots of bad politics earlier which back fired against them. This a state that is Muslim dominated and religion sometimes plays a factor in their choice of candidature. PDP also played the card of APC frustrating the interest of Yoruba’s by blocking the emergency of their daughter Mulikat as Speaker of the House. Today, APC chose a Yoruba man as VP which is higher and have significant importance than speaker. I don’t know how PDP will convince them to vote GEJ when they have a fellow ethnic nationality in a higher position. (They can’t still understand the advantage of Bankole to SW when he was Speaker).
Oyo State is classified into 4 zones. Ibadan, Oyo town, Ogbomosho, Oke-ogun and they are led by different gladiators. Ibadan is a strong hold of Ladoja and the incumbent Gov Ajumobi with voting power of 60 – 40% respectively. The most interesting thing is that Ibadan determines one-third of the voting strength with 11 LG. Ladoja will never canvass for PDP or APC because he knows their success in Presidential election will affect his chances. His bosom friend that led to his fallout with Obj is now a leader in APC (Atiku). The PDP Gov candidate Teslim is a nobody and carries no weight compared to the earlier two candidates in Ibadan. Therefore it is a clean a battle for APC in Ibadan.
Oyo town is locked down for APC because of the cordial relationship between the Oba and the Incumbent gov. This is the only town in SW that the Oba has lots of influence in the election in his domain. His son is a candidate of APC contesting for Fed. Rep.
Ogbomosho is another big town in SW and Oyo state. The big fish in this town is Alao Akala. His fallout with PDP is a big blow and will do anything to ensure that PDP does not win Presidential and Senatorial election because of his ambition to become the governor. The next strong gladiator to him is Hon. Buhari (APC) who is contesting for senate. He is not a match for Akala but he can climb on Akala’s grand stand against PDP senatorial candidate from Oke-ogun and his gubernatorial ambition.
Oke-ogun is a battle ground between PDP and APC. The deputy governor is from oke ogun while the incumbent senator is also from Oke ogun. Oke ogun have always been a APC enclave until Senator Agboola Hosea broke the jinx. Winning local election is different from national election, especially when the perspective of the PDP Presidential candidate in these areas is very poor.
Religion and ethnicity will play a major role.

VERDICT;
PDP 30% APC 70%

OGUN;

There is little to talk about here because, a son of the soil is involved. He is not just a son of the soil but a renowned professional religiously and excellent in his career. The fallout of Osoba from APC cannot deem the chance in the presidential race (it might in guber) because Osoba cannot work alongside with Gbenga Daniel. SDP National might adopt GEJ but Osoba will never because 2003 election mistake is still fresh in his memory.

VERDICT;
PDP 20% APC 80%

LAGOS;

History as always showed that candidate that Tinubu supports have always won the Presidential Election in Lagos state since 1999. Obj won Lagos in 2003 because AD did not field any Presidential Candidate. 2007 PDP lost Lagos state to Atiku because of Tinubu’s influence.
Tinubu strength in Lagos state can only be matched by Late Engr. Funsho Williams. Who understand the workings of Yoruba politics by not attempting to join the PDP at the National (he might get contracts but ensured he did not meddle into National Politics). He played his politics within Lagos and has the grassroot structure like Tinubu. He and Tinubu were contemporaries in AD 1998 before he left for PDP. Since his demise PDP Lagos has not been able to muscle such grass root structure again. The structure merged with Tinubu in 2007.
PDP needs to up their game which is already late. The fuel subsidy protest has painted the Fed government in bad light. The inability of the FG to bring the cabals, fraudsters to justice and the promised refinery is a big minus. This state is the commercial heart of the nation. Propaganda can’t fly to an extent because they feel the effect of government policies faster than any state in the federation. The state is blessed with different people all over the country because of his economic advantage which is perceived to be the hard work of the ruling party APC. Most of the eligible voters are knowledgeable, they are vast in one aspect or the other and well informed.

VERDICT;
PDP 30% APC 70%.

CONCLUSION;
Personally I don’t see PDP winning SW because of lots of factors that cannot be discussed at once. GEJ does not have a well trusted, respected Elder from Yoruba Land that some people will listen to across the 6 states in his team. No matter how u view it, Yoruba’s look up to some people because of their achievement in Life and success. Allowing Tinubu and OBj to work against him in the SW is the worst that can happen to a person.

Buhari/Osinbajo will win SW vote’s landslide.



@barcanista, @Gbawe

kelvinnn:
If arsenal wins 2:0 I tink they will still qualify.

Ballotelle:
pls make una no vex, if arsenal wins by 2 goals wd dy stil qualify?

Zoharariel:
Jonathan go fear-fear. Opposition sef don already table him matter before Obatala, Shango, Ogun Lakaye Oshimale & Eshu Laalu Ogirioko.

stepo707:
nawao.We the poor masses continue to suffer and this fvcktards dont even care.

dre11:
You head is there......

oduastates:
The dumb reason given can only come from the usual place. The useless party.

adeoladele:
Let them discuss what they want to discuss . But the fact remains that election must hold on the 28/3/2015 , card reader must be used in the election and Jega must be the umpire . Shikenan

xtervaganza:
lol politicians are pigs though.



And the people eating their cursed food are classless

kamossreal:
Una no see wen GEJ too go make factory of Rice

WisdomFlakes:
Coming from the same failed preacher whose predictions and postulations have never come to pass, I shyt on this.

This was the same man who infamously, authoritatively and boldly in his vanguard column declared that Buhari would be betrayed by Tinubu and the rest of the APC and therefore would not win the APC primaries. Buhari won the primaries and has been souring ever since, and since that gaffe I stopped taking him seriously.

Therefore I hereby shyt on this thread and declare it failed

dsquare33:
I hope this is not the handwork of PDP just to discredit senator ajimobi. PDP can do anything to tarnish their opponent's image.

Mogidi:
Yet APC goons will tell the gullible they're saints.

dre11:
Am in Ibadan and I have not seen this garri.....






I need to hit the street again

xtervaganza:
What I see in this picture looks more like rice than garri.




And I'm in ibadan and I've never seen or heard about it