₦airaland Forum

In January, I made a post about Tilson T3 signal. I said from the 20th of October, if the green or blue turn red, SELLLLL.

HERE is a link to see the post and the pictures I uploaded. It's a short read. From the image below, it turned red and I had been meaning to post it, but felt you guys already knew about it through that post and there wasn't any need.

https://www.nairaland.com/6318352/crypto-currency-investors-thread/4206#133882064

Did you see a green colour there? Yes, zoom it. On the 20th of October, it turned red, so it's over based on history except if this time is different.

One thing newbies should know is, something called INVALIDATION.

That redline is an invalidator. Some newbies think the moment you change your mind, you're a failure. These same people will send a cheating w/m away because she's not the person he used to know. He CHANGED HIS MIND about her, but can't about BTC when things get invalidated.

I'm only a researcher and a messenger — the final decision is on you. "Fed is printing, global liquidity is rising, QE will soon start, etc. and the market will pump because the cycle is different and it's a supercycle. Alt season must happen, else the cycle won't end."

These are some of the things on YouTube. The same YouTubers who said this cycle is different forgot that the word "different" could go both ways. It could be the first time without parabolic alt season — considering the level of liquidation on the 10th of October which made every sensible person realize something about alts.

NOTE: WE STILL HAVE 15 DAYS FOR THE MONTHLY CANDLE TO CLOSE AND WE MIGHT BE LUCKY TO SEE IT PUMP ABOVE THE BLUE LINE, BUT THE MOMENT DECEMBER COMES WITHOUT IT GOING ABOVE IT, THEN IT'S DONE AND DUSTED FOR THE CYCLES.

Don't forget March and July ALWAYS pump in a bull market, so those are two months to short.

Below is for 2013, 2017, and 2021.

From my findings, after the 80th week, red line, the market is dead for BTC. I don't know about alts since it's not my specialty.

If you look at the image below you'll see where a yellow arrow is pointing. That the the body of any candle taller than the one that prints under the red line. That place is my highest stoploss incase the cycle want to be different.

NO CANDLE has ever gone above any candle the red line printed on. The highest it could do is to retest it like 2017/2018 did. If this year retests it, that's 111.5k. For the yellow, it's 114k ≈ 115k. My question is, will this time be different?

Now, let me post for 2013, 2017, 2021 and...

By the way, 2013 topped in December, 2013, but the 80th week, the red, printed in June, 2014. This is to say, the top has happened 6-7 months ahead in that 2013 cycle.

In 2017, it printed red two months after the top.
In 1 an 2021, it printed red the following month.
In 2025, it also printed red the following month.

I'm not going to make decisions for you and end up taking the blame for misleading you.

As I said, whenever this red prints, all my cycle prediction for BTC automatically becomes void and I switch straight to my bear market strategy even though I know it may go retest the blue line or even break it for the first time.

Lesson: Focus on time, not price, after the 80th week of every halving cycle. You must make this switch, else you bleed. This doesn't mean there won't be relief rallies, there will, but for BTC, it HASN'T YET gone above the blue line.

This is not a financial advice, but my finding and I urge you to disregard it and follow your rules as long as you have a strong conviction in it.

It's quite easy. Go to Tradingview and search for Bitcoin Halving. There are 3-4 I like, but lest use the one by akaLOCKSMITH.

When you add it, go to the settings and untick that red and green background and you'll be left with green line for start of cycle, yellow line for start of halving and red line = 80 weeks from halving (1 year and half month + or - ).

Now, let me explain what I found in simple English.

One thing about me is, even when I know something, I never stop learning, researching and digging more data, especially on a topic I'm interested.

After years of studying halving, but neglecting it, someone sent me a video on TG and it's about halving. I watched it and got inspired again to look into it.

Immediately, I watched at least 25 videos to see their perspective if I'll finally take it seriously and find a way to add it to my too arsenal and I finally did and it's not too late.

here's my finding... "I'll keep it short." Not a promise, but I'll try.

Gucciboy:
Replying with all your emotions in letters means l struck your nerves,didn't l?

You did.

Gucciboy:
Didn't understand a thing,new theories everyday you no dey tire?

With the type of suffering you're going through and even putting your account number on your page for giveaway, understanding my post is impossible. It's only for people who have eaten and have strength to assimilate 0s and 1s.

From 77-80th week after halving, all my price predictions will be null and void, if it hasn't been met no matter the promises of what the fed or market is about to do next. Prediction is not a due or die, but anticipation. Sometimes, you get betrayed by fed.

The month this 77-80th week falls on won't matter.

It could be September, October, November or December or even January, the following year. That's the new mantra.

Remember, during market top, big cooperations pay big YouTubers and content creators to preach how we'll head to the moon and how the pump hasn't even started. This is to create exit liquidity for them.

Get to a stage where you only listen to yourself and chart and if your prediction fails, fine — life goes on.

If you look carefully, BTC has never moved higher after the 80th week counting from halving date.

It's always inbetween 75 week to 79 week and some days.

Though, after dumping, it can pump close to the top to give hopium, but hasn't broken it yet in history — except if this time will be different.

Remember, my chart and past predictions is for BTC to hit 145k or 155k and at most, 175k. (hoping America will start printing, it seems by hope has been dashed).

Sadly, this might not be achieved because we have reached the 80th week already from the day of halving, 20 of April 2024 to 10th of October 2025, is 76 weeks and 6 days ≈ 77 weeks.

If you include today, 14th of November, 2025, then that makes it 82 weeks.

So, we have two weeks extra already, hence the dump.

Miners, dumped on the 10th of October because 11th was the last day for the 77-80 week range they chose to unleash.

They wanted to be ahead with max profit, hence the crash, but people said it's Trump tariff, which isn't.

Why didn't we hit 177k or at least, 145k? America! They caused it for not starting QE, Quantitative Easing, so that money can flow into the hands of companies and citizen to invest in risk assets.

I'm blaming America and at the same time, thanking America because without them, BTC would be seen as a thing for criminals. Let's learn to be grateful even in times of pains and failure.

So, from today, let's not focus on what price it'll hit, but the best time and day it'll pump from the 77th to 80th week, counting from the day of halving.

Yes, have a price target, but from the 77th to 80th week, drop your price target and target the day it'll experience a 7, 10, 12 or more percent pump in a day and sell at least 50-70%, then watch how the remainder of the week pans out and on the 79th week or let's say 80th week and some days, RUN!

That is exactly what is happening to BTC and miners know it.

If we focus on this, we won't be bothered with QE, QT, FOMC meeting, war, report about this and that, etc.

Just wake up from the 75th week and move your BTC to an exchange and from the 77th to 80th week, you start selling and that's all.

Whatever happens after that, you won't regret! Don't be greedy! Keep the Dollar till No-DJ of bear market and buy again or enter some small shorts that if you lose, it won't affect you. Rinse and repeat.

Bear market doesn't mean we'll dump to 89% immediately, but it's a pump and dump situation.

We go up more in a bear market than we go done, but not above the top price.

Also, in a bull market, we down more than we go up, but not below bear market price.

This is for BTC only. As you know, if alt season happens, which may not, BTC could do its regular pump and dump while alts pump, but going above 80th week price, is what hasn't been recorded in crypto history yet. Maybe, as they always say, this time is different!

Exact halving to top durations in weeks for every cycle.

By default, it must be 77-80 weeks and that is 1 year and 5 months (plus or minus 1 month).

1. 2012 Halving → 2013 Top
Halving: 28 Nov 2012
Top: 4 Dec 2013
Days: 371
Weeks: 53 weeks exactly

2. 2016 Halving → 2017 Top
Halving: 9 Jul 2016
Top: 16 Dec 2017
Days: 525
Weeks: 75 weeks


3. 2020 Halving → 2021 Top
Halving: 11 May 2020
Top: 10 Nov 2021
Days: 548
Weeks: 78.28 weeks
(≈ 78 weeks, 2 days)

4. 2024 Halving → 2025 Top (126k)

Using the mid-range top date: 10 Oct 2025
Halving: 20 Apr 2024
Top: 10 Oct 2025
Days: 538
Weeks: 76.85 weeks
(≈ 76 weeks, 6 days)


Final Summary

Cycle to Weeks from Halving

Only the first cycle (2012→2013) topped early. The last three cycles all top within 75–80 weeks, matching 77–80 week rule almost perfectly.


So...

First halving happened on 28 November 2012 at a Bitcoin price of about $12.35.
The cycle top after this halving was on 4 December 2013, when Bitcoin reached about $1,151.17.
This is about a 93.2× pump, which equals roughly +9,220%.

Second halving happened on 9 July 2016 at a Bitcoin price of about $663.
The top that followed occurred on 16 December 2017, with Bitcoin reaching about $19,497.
This is about a 29.4× pump, which equals roughly +2,840%.

Third halving happened on 11 May 2020 at a price of about $8,755.
The top came on 10 November 2021, when Bitcoin reached about $69,044.
This is about a 7.89× pump, which equals roughly +689%.

Fourth halving happened on 20 April 2024 at a price of about $64,968.
The top that followed is at $126,000, which happened in early to mid October 2025, approximately around 10 October 2025.
This is about a 1.94× pump, which equals roughly +94%.

Typing...

Bitcoin trading isn’t just numbers.
It’s human psychology and pattern recognition.

Look at the image below.
The red box before the green box, that top red box, is supposed to dump and retest the middle line of the purple box.
And because everyone knows that March usually dumps, what did traders do?
They started shorting early.

That’s exactly when the market movers step in.

When they saw the crowd piling into shorts, they pushed the market upward to liquidate them or force them to close their positions.
That’s why the market pumped and stayed inside the green box for almost four months—to exhaust those traders, frustrate them, and break their conviction.

Then after the green box—notice how small it is—the next box is the red September box.
And September, almost every year since Bitcoin’s existence, tends to dump and retest January’s top.
It’s a market culture.
A psychological rhythm that repeats.

But once too many people recognize that rhythm, the market makers change it.
They adjust the pattern.
They trap traders inside a position for weeks or months until they finally give up and close at a loss.
That is their game.

When you understand that psychology,
when you apply risk management,
and when you wait for a proper entry,
you stop being the target.

Most traders move like a herd.
They don’t understand the psychological layer.
They FOMO in, they’re desperate to make money, and they fall for the same traps every cycle.
That’s why history keeps repeating.

But if you understand the pattern,
and you also prepare for the opposite of the pattern when the market is ready to shift,
you stay ahead of 99% of everyone.

The method I spoke about above is more like a snitch. The previous big box and red box ALWAYS expose what will happen in the following big or red box. It's as if you're trading on a loop. And during bear market, you invert your chart and still trade as if it's a bull market and the rules still work.

So, with it, there is no bull or bear market, but "box market."

The main reason I do all these research is because I want to convert tedious technical analysis to digestible theories where almost anyone can apply them and trade without knowing about doji, hammer head, bearish divergence and all those terms.

I want to remove overthinking from trading and introduce a system that makes impatient people automatically become patient by default.

Next year, if you learn and master this SITM and focus on it, you'll make more money than most. Also, those cluttered charts you see there have secrets better than SiTM, but that's a story for another day. If you want the full gist, click like.

Valwezzy:
Done!
But what does it mean?

10 years later, I'll talk about it, but let me give you a hint. There is a colour coding I use called Rugby-who
red,
ultra-violet (purple),
green,
blue,
yellow,
white,
honeydew and
orange

Since I came into crypto 5+ years ago, I noticed some months have a similar characteristic and always dump in some years, but don't in other years, hence I came up with ReSeBuBum, but to keep thing in a new order since I love to be organized hierarchical, I now call it BuBumReSel for a reason.

Long story short, I noticed FAMAMS always dump in most occasions, hence, I put them in red box, see images below.

I divided the other months by RUGBY-WHO colours. Some are 4 months grouped together while others are 5 or 6 months. Each of these groups are divided by one month from the FAMAMS family (Feb, August, March, August, March, Sept.) Yes, ignore the repetition — it's correct. Those months are mostly dangerous, though sometimes they pump because people short them as they anticipate a dump. Feb isn't dangerous, but there is a reason it's there.

I came up with a mathematical solution on how to know the height of each box ahead of time from the lowest price of the weekly candle.

I discovered a lot of things a spirit keeps telling me not to share and one of them out of the many is SITM (sweet in the...) I gave it that name to be memorable. The human mind is too corrupt and such are easily recalled.

Not to bore you with details, look at each of the boxes below — I knew their heights even before the weekly candle filled them up and I knew how low they'll dump using SITM.

From each box, zoom it, you'll see there is a dash arrow line from the middle bearing the same colour as the box. The next box ALWAYS retest the middle of the previous box, hence the name. Magic, right? That's what research gives you and the info doesn't exist anywhere online or offline.

From 2011, it has been 90% or more correct. The two or three times it couldn't go low to retest SITM, there was a reason and you'll even know it ahead of time if you read my full documentary of this secret. Una no like to read, so I kept all these things to myself. And Nairaland too dey ban people, hence I can't really post something detailed.

Today, SITM just did it too. Look at that white box and the dotted arrow line from the middle of the previous yellow box, it came down to tap it and wick down and it has been doing it since the existence of BTC in every box. I call it BOXnalysis.

Sadly, BTC lasts 77 to 80 weeks to hit market top after halving (which is about 1 year and 6 months.)

Halving happened on the 20th of April, 2024 and 77 weeks from that day is 11th of October, 2025. One of the reasons that crash happened. Some miners dumped hard. While 80 weeks is 1st of November.


With this info, the cycle is over, but we're only using hopium to survive because we are hoping CZ and co will pump it to liquidate early shorts, then it dumps 25% in a single day after the parabolic pump. That's always how they play the game. Maybe, they're waiting for more short before they do it.

By the way, in my personal findings, there are two to three tops. The yellow top, the cycle top and the liquation top. Any of the tops is enough for someone who bought in 2022 and isn't greedy. Yes, QT and fed messed the cycle up, but it was still good to have a different perspective of how things would be without QE.

So, the 4 year halving cycle has always been accurate because it's based on code inside the blockchain.

Did you understand the post? In the image, look at the blue arrows — that's the middle of previous boxes that were retested.

SITM (Sweet In The...)

Someone should quote this post because I'll reference it 10 years later. It has a meaning.

This is why it's good to build your strategy in a way you'll pray for lower prices even after you've bought at the right price. This makes you not to panic, but excited when it comes down to scare people. BTC is currently at 100.2k and at -3.5%. I'll only take action the day it does -7% or more.

Build a strategy that helps you see the market in hierarchical structure and prepare for all of them.

1. Biggest Picture: 4 Year Cycle
2. Bigger Picture: 1 Year Cycle
3. Big Picture: 6 Month Cycle

4. Small Picture: 2-3 Month Cycle
5. Smaller Picture: 1 Month Cycle
6. Smallest Picture: 1 Week Cycle
7. *Day Trading
8. *Scalp Trading


When you have an idea of the overall market, the biggest picture, you have an advantage over others. It makes you have a long-term plan, alongside with your short-term plans.

Unfortunately, most people in this industry only focus on number 7 and 8.

I have studied the chart and identified all the time to buy or trade in all the list I made above.

Example is #1, the 4 year cycle. In the images below, you'll notice in the 4 year cycle, there are only "2 heavy buying opportunities" in each cycle, then there are 2-3 and sometimes 4 "top-up" opportunities if you missed the 2 heavy and best buying opportunities of the 4 year cycle.

Now, imagine you prepared ahead of time for these opportunities and you load up heavily when they arrive. In just 3-4 years, you'll make more money than most degens.

Each of the images is 4 years and the red is the 2 buying opportunities and it usually has a high volume too. The blue arrows are the top-up for late comers of the cycle.

Now you have a picture of the 4 year cycle, the next is to also know how the 1 year cycle works and when is the best time(s) to buy and so on.

If you know all these things ahead of time, you'll be relaxed when others are panicking.

Each cycle repeats almost exactly! With this kind of info, why not you stay prepared instead of desperate?

Luck is when preparedness meets opportunity.

SON (Sept, Oct. Nov.) Before parabolic pump in Sell Year, one of the months of SON will retest the top or bottom price of June to pledge allegiance, else no show.

2013 and 2025 retested the bottom price of June monthly candle while 2017 and 2021 cycle retested the top price of June.

I just wanted to tell you a little history even though it doesn't repeat, but most times rhymes.

Maybe, we'll experience a parabolic pump in late November or early December.

Note: I'm referring to only BTC.

I long when there is chaos and when no one wants to long. All my criteria were met.

Though, this is a risky trade cuz it's happening at the end of bull market, but who doesn't take risks never succeeds. Entry is 90% of your victory.

Even with the best risk management, a poor entry will destroy your account.

I have bought at the right time, but I'm still praying for lower. It's just psychology.

Knowing you have backups give you another layer of confidence should unexpected black swan happens.

More update soon.

The worst that can happen is 89-88k, but let's consolidate for now till the d...th cross happens.

Almost A+ setup.

My number 1 rule and it works. -5%, -7% and -12% in a day and at least 1 billion Dollar in liquidation.

-7% is a sweet spot, then -10 to -12% dump in a day is a great catch.

You only do this when you already know the direction of the general market and the period of the 4 year cycle we're in.

You don't do this blindly, else you're catching a falling knife and it'll keep going down and you'll begin to think the method doesn't work.


Crypto is all about patience and being in USDT even of it'll take months or years of waiting until your setup appears.

This is just A setup, so on the 10th to 14th of November, we might go for A+, but if lots of longs enter the market, they'll keep dumping with periodic pumps to liquidate them. BTC will start acting like alt because all degens are on it now, so we might even start seeing 21% dump in a day.

Note: I no longer follow macros and this helps remove noise — I follow the 1. 4 year cycle
2. history
3. risk management
4. the chart
5. human psychology

Any other thing, I see it as distraction and this keeps me level-headed.

I no longer panic because I analyse my chart from 1 month tf to 1 week, then 1 day. I prepare for these timeframes, especially 1 week and 1 month and it lets me prepare for black swan and eventualities.

Please, try and get to a stage you make 100% of your decisions or at least 98% and whatever gurus post on social media never dissuade you.

I'm only sharing.

I checked my old friend and he told me A setup of around 101.5k we hit on the 10th is within range.

Are we going for A+? I have no idea. All I know is, my best setups are A, A+ and No-DJ.

If we go below A+, the cycle is over and that means team October won. Even if the cycle is over, we'll still pump back and stay inside the bear market green channel I regularly posted.

So, there is nothing to fear for BTC — it's alts that'll be hit.

The market rewards a diligent specialist.

Team October, 2025.

Using the method I posted in 2024, you're to sell on Oct 5th and 25th. What was the price of BTC on those days?

Oct 5th was 125k-126k (Top of October)
Oct 25th was 111k -115k.

Why the corrections? D** th cross is happening in few days time. Though, it might be a fake out.

What is a kpai cross? It's when the 50 SMA, blue line, goes below 200 SMA, red line.

What happens when kpai cross occurs? Market dumps, then pumps, then corrects days or weeks later.

What about golden cross? It's when that 50 SMA that went down starts going back up. What happen? Market will pump, then dumps on the day it crosses in most cases, then slowly starts gaining strength to go up.

When it happens matters. This is why you need to understand the 4 year cycle, Re-se-bu-bum.

One year ago, 2024, exactly in November, I projected October to be 120k to 130k. Did we achieve it? Yes. October hit 126k, which is within the range of 120-130k.

Team October, I hope you've sold. I'm Team November and mostly December, so I'm holding my breath. I hope I won't regret for not joining Team O.

This was the post:

Choose Your Team: Bitcoin Bull Run Peaks and Details

While I await the 20 likes and contemplate if is should expose it, let me share another one I discovered from analyzing the chart as if my life depended on it.

I noticed a relationship between the date of the year of each Sell Year. For newbies who are new to this thread, Sell Years are part of the 4 year cycle. It's the year each cycle peaks, like 2013, 2017, 2021 and next is 2025.

Market usually picks in October, November or December and it may even do a pump in January, the following year. It's called the dead cat bounces.

With this information, I thoroughly researched the chart and noticed December is the best month to sell, but November and October have done great too, so I included all the months in my analysis and found out a good selling date from the last two digit of the year of that bullrun's peak.

There was a bullrun peak in 2013, right?

Now, the last digit of 2013 is 3 and a combination of second to last digit is 13. Therefore, sell 50% of your BTC on the 3rd and the 40% on the 13th. Then keep 10% incase of unforeseen magic even though the parabolic pump seems to be exhausted.

"Now, which month should I sell?" You asked.

Your RSI, StochRSI, Fear & Greed Index and other indicators will tell you, but you'll need to choose a month, a team and a date. Luckily, the year of the bullrun is the date.

We have

Team O (October)
Team N (November)
Team D (December)
Team J (January, the following year).

For me, I'm team D as first choice, Team J, my second choice and Team N, my third choice.

The reason you should choose a team is so that you'll study how your team behaves and this will help you not to panic-sell in other people's team because you know how their team also behaves in price action.

From my real-life research, Team D has the best win rate, but the riskiest because you'll be holding your breath whenever that market is red for a day as you pray for it not to crash in October or November. 

After I gathered all my info, I put it on GPT to do some analysis.

Remember, I'm mainly Team D and maybe, Team J, and Team N.

As a Team D member...

In 2013, I'll should've sold some on the 3rd of December and some on the 13th of December.

In 2017, I should've sold some on the 7th of December and some on the 17th. Why 7th and 17th? Because it's derived from 2017 and same applies to 2021 ans the rest of bullrun peak year.

In 2021, I should've sold some on the 1st of December and some on the 21st of December.

If I had sold at those prices, I sold at the best or second to the best prices. Though, in 2021, Team October won, followed by Team November. My lovely Team December took third postion, but it's still good at 57-59k.

Here is the prices and info for your perusal. After you gone through it, choose your team and if you don't mind, why?

2013 BULL RUN

Top Price: ~$1,165
Happened on: Monday, December 2, 2013

2013 DETAILS:

October 3, 2013: ~$129
October 13, 2013: ~$138 ((Total: 267)

November 3, 2013: ~$204
November 13, 2013: ~$331 (Total: 535)

December 3, 2013: ~$1,048
December 13, 2013: ~$872 (Total: 1920)

January 3, 2014: ~$833
January 13, 2014: ~$860 (Total: 1693)

WINNER: Team December
Runner up: Team J

2017 BULL RUN

Top Price: ~$19,665
Happened on: Sunday, December 17, 2017

2017 DETAILS:

October 7, 2017: ~$4,400
October 17, 2017: ~$5,600 (Total: 10000)

November 7, 2017: ~$7,100
November 17, 2017: ~$7,800 (Total: 14900)

December 7, 2017: ~$14,600
December 17, 2017: ~$19,000 (Total: 33600)

January 7, 2018: ~$17,300
January 17, 2018: ~$11,000 (Total: 28000)

WINNER: Team December
Runner up: Team J

2021 BULL RUN

Top Price: ~$69,045
Happened on: Wednesday, November 10, 2021

2021 DETAILS:

October 1, 2021: ~$43,900
October 21, 2021: ~$65,000 (Total: 108,900)

November 1, 2021: ~$61,000
November 21, 2021: ~$58,200 (Total: 119200)

December 1, 2021: ~$57,000
December 21, 2021: ~$48,800 (Total: 105800)

January 1, 2022: ~$46,300
January 21, 2022: ~$38,500

WINNER: Team November
Runner up: Team October.

My team took 3rd postion. First time wey we dey carry last.

[b]2025 PROJECTION

Top Price: ~195k (projected)
Maybe happen on: Monday, December 15, 2025 (hypothetical, based on prior cycles peaking mid-December)

PROJECTION FOR 2025

October 5, 2025: ~120k
October 25, 2025: ~130k

November 5, 2025: ~145k
November 25, 2025: ~155k

December 5, 2025: ~175k
December 25, 2025: ~190k

January 5, 2026: ~185k
January 25, 2026: ~160k

For 2025, I just hit my ass and came up with the number 195k — it's not based on any indicator or calculation. I just needed a value to use, so it's just a guess.

Choose your team and if you don't mind, why do you prefer the team?

Who remembered my November 2024 post? Where I did a deep research on when to sell and we all belonged to different teams.

Seanwilliam, I hope you remembered your team?

I'll do a recap of that post and the strategy we used.

Here is a link to read the full post: https://www.nairaland.com/6318352/crypto-currency-investors-thread/4013#132886886

Typing...

This green channel? We never close a weekly candle below it the moment we're fully inside. So, use it to console yourself and know that there is still 2-3 months to the upside, then you switch to your bear market strategy while using that channel as a guide. If it could be true in the past 3 cycles, we're expecting it to be true again or at least 90% true.

Everyone has access to the chart and you already know how to go about it.


The 4 year cycle is in play as it has always been.