₦airaland Forum

My Take on Uacn plc.
Updc also known as uacn-prop is poised for good
outing this year despite its land dispute within the
eletu's family and d other family which has no
significant negative effect on this coy's 2013 result.My
own eagle eye on the stock is it impressive up to date
performance so this year.Current q3 result of this coy
has d ff:Q3 Eps of #1.40,impressive pat,impressive t/o
among others which are quite sustainable through out
this year.My own expectation base on trailing
earnings,which had it that Q3 2012 result eps was
57kobo and by the year end of 2012 eps had been
95kobo out of which a dividend of 65kobo was paid
though no bonus script was given.That means this
particular coy added 37kobo only in Q4 alone to d
already 57kobo in store as q3 2012,this shows that this
coy was making some good money in each year end
from my own understudy as i have had to be watching
this coy since with an eagle eye.Also,d coy has a good
dividend policy since which means dividend will
certainly be paid but this time my conjecture is full year
earnings per share might be closed to #2.02 and this
mean a bogus dividend might be paid i guess around
80kobo to 100kobo could be paid for 2013 financial
year end.But one more thing,d most important winning
trick as a proud value investor is to determine the best
entry price to get in.even though market could be
demented and act ackwardly sometimes.To all my ogas
in this knowledge island i say MERRY XMAS AND HAPPY
NEW YEAR.Special regards goes to my father in d house
VALUEFRONT.Please house what is your assessment
about this coy's future as i am still a humble teacheable
pikin in the house.

http://businessdayonline.com/2014/01/fbn-of-nigeria-says-annual-profit-curbed-by-new-regulations/.

My ogas in d house,read along the lines.you know i said this in one of my recent post where i said that the big banks can only try hard to defend what they made in 2012 year end becos of crr effect and tight monetary environment while the small and medium banks might get it so hit by the effect of crr.It will be recall that inspite of high retail advantage that fbnh had we can still see that the bank couldnt be resilient to Crr effect and tight monetary stance.Though,First bank has a problem of converting its huge revenue advantage that it has against all other banks for some years now,yet the bnk couldnt convert those revenue into profit unlike the smart banks like Gtb and zenith.With just not so huge revenue that most efficient banks in the country were making yet their profit margin beat that of First bank.With these synopsis,let pick an example.By using sterlingbank,this is a bnk with huge loan provision trend since first quarter of 2013 and the trend still continues,so watch out for year end in 2013.The bnk also has high operational expenses but with d effect of crr,watch out for some operational expenses to continue with d effect of tight monetary environment.A good bank to watch out for,is a bnk with good risk mgt,good mgt team where operational cost could be monitored and tape down in a bid to increase the coy's profit with what we are seeing with nestle.

oga courage89 why putting all these political news on our thread now.yellow card for you.

@aks:pls what do see on the robustness of these stocks uacn-prop,courville,dangote sugars,cap, thanks.

@Aks:were u reading my mind before,infact you have said all i am about saying on sterling,fcmb,skye, and fbnh,big thumbs up to u.But i heard that transcorp will do reconstruction,please hw true is this.Any one in d house,can u help me out.

Guide For investing on banking stocks this year H1 2014.
I see this thread as a way to help my fellows on d bourse and please note my words are always blunt truth so take me for that.For banking stocks,remember that btw this time till june 2014 as much as sanusi remained in cbn position,Mpc could raise Crr on public funds to 75% to mild the spending on political electn and this will puncture a big hole in banks profitability and also create huge loan losses by 2013 year end thereby reducing possiblity of increased dividend pay out by most banks.From facts,most of the banks will only retained what they paid out as dividend last year end 2012 becos of effect of CRR and shot out of major banks earning spots,i think you know it already.Its better to bet with big banks because frm fact,they can defend profit made last year end and thereby maintained their good dividend pay out though it may not be an increased dividend as one would have expect becos of tight regulatory policy that shrivel their profitability this year end i mean 2013fye.so be very careful of banking stocks so as not to be too optimistic about them,so that fingers would not be burnt.sterling bank made a huge profit by H1 2013 which was d bank with d highest profit margin then followed by stanbic bank while gtb,zenith were producing results with marginal profit margins but by third quarter 2013 when result came out effect of crr was seen hitting up all profit made by sterlingbank with higher operating expenses and loan losses but nonetheless sterling bank is a good trading stock if anyone can get it cheaper than it is currently on nse bourse maybe around #2.14-#2.20 during a correction anytime from now and take d oppotunity that will be created by bulls to exit at #2.47-#2.60.More to come.....

2.)Naira may face some problems by dropping value against major powerful currencies of the world when big political spending start after sanusi exits.you should agree with that as stronger opposition party facing the incumbent goverment so will the spending be because the incumbent govt i mean PDP govt would want to do everything within their power to win election against this strong opposition i mean APC even at the detriment of our economy.That means,more mad politicospending even with current weak ECA $3bn that cant accomodate all those reckless spending.
3.)FED TAPERING would wipe off cheap easy fund inflow into frontier & emerging mrkts and this imply too much money chasing a stock/stocks will go and prices would fall and those sentimentaly buoyed stocks would be striped naked.
Take this little frm me for now.

Remember that banking stocks are not that reliable stocks to hold on for a long time unlike defensive stocks but if you want to buy banking stocks try to get in at good entry price and you must have set you realistic comfortable exit price before mr market eat up ur gains.Note,frm d look of things my investing period this year is btw jan-june becos anything frm june when sanusi leaves office then the direction of the market will be clueless with these facts:
1.)Inflation might move up as a result big political spending becos there is nobody to stop them as sanusi is doing now with crr raising to 50% frm 12% in other to curb politicians frm sudden withdrawal of public funds that they keep with different banks for political spending for the upcoming election next year.if sanusi had not done that,polithief would have put liquidity of banks at the interbank operations in mess especially at OMO and this would have put the country economic indexes down.i cant say all i know.......

Audacious you are right on that because i knew he said he would use a huge sum to buy more vessels to boost his business but yet that does not mean a solid earning expectation that can improve the profitability of the coy is on the way with jegede-management style of running his coy.Action speak volume of words i mean good result speaks louder and eloquently than jegede words.History has show that jegede's pronouncement is quiet not relied upon.My friend jegede talks alot though i like him but he hasnt get it right in turning his coy to better runned coy in such a way that shareholders would be happy or benefit alots unlike CONOIL,NESTLE,GTB,JULIUS BERGER,UACN-PROP,UACN etc.But let wait and see maybe ............jegede has got mgt prowess this year to turn d coy around.

please oga what is all about this Dnse mpa index.please enlighten me or tell me more about it.Also,what do you oga think about courtville stock.Thanks as i await ur reply.

oga moneysage thank you for bailing me out.well B2BTR,my news source is from http://newsrescue.com.i know law naa.

Born 2 to be rich,there is nothing that push japaul oil up than sentiment based on the privatization of refineries news because there is no any going concern that japaul earnings will be robust in near term to come.I think our mercylicious babe knows this.Hi,duxomega you hv made ur loot on this,u hv profited frm d news.Japaul has gone to sokoto and will now go to its old national park,oyo.

NewsRescue
Reversal: Jonathan Faults Diezani, BPE; says No
Plans to Sell Nigeria’s Refineries
110EmailShare
Jan. 3, 2013
PremiumTimes
Reuben Abati said Mrs. Alison-Madueke cannot
approve the sale of the refineries.
Despite the statements of various government officials
including the Petroleum Minister, Diezani Alison-
Madueke, President Goodluck Jonathan has no plans to
and has not approved the sale of Nigeria’s four
refineries, presidential aide, Reuben Abati, said on
Thursday.
Mr. Abati also claimed the federal government had no
plans to privatise the refineries.
Mrs. Alison-Madueke had while speaking in an interview
with Bloomberg TV Africa in London in November said
that the refineries would be sold.
About a week after Mrs. Alison-Madueke’s interview,
Nigeria’s privatisation agency, the Bureau for Public
Enterprises, BPE, said it was working with Mrs. Alison-
Madueke’s petroleum ministry to privatise the refineries.
“We are working with the NNPC and Ministry of
Petroleum Resources on the privatisation of the four
refineries. We are just in the preliminary discussion with
them and very soon, we will make public the work plan
for the privatisation processes, including the
engagement of advisers to advise us on the transaction,”
Chigbo Anichebe, the spokesperson of the BPE said in a
statement.
“Once the work plan is fine-tuned, hopefully by the end
of the year or early January next year, the work plan as
well as the schedule will be unveiled to all stakeholders,
including the media.”
The statement by the two government officials directly
related to the privatisation has now been faulted by Mr.
Abati, who claims the president has no plan to privatise
the refineries.
Mr. Abati said this in an interview with journalists at the
Presidential Villa, Abuja, on Thursday,
Mr. Abati was reacting to the proposed strike by oil
workers, NUPENG, who threatened to embark on a
nationwide strike if the refineries are privatised. Any
strike by NUPENG would lead to scarcity of petroleum
products, and could worsen the popularity of the
Jonathan administration, which has been getting some
knocks from Nigerians over its policies.
The spokesperson said if the alleged plan to sell the
country’s refineries was the basis on which NUPENG
plans to go on strike, then there will be no dialogue by
the federal government as it had no such plans.
“Government is not going to sell any refineries. There is
no such plan and there is no presidential approval for
such,” Mr. Abati said. “Nobody, not even the minister of
petroleum has powers to sell any government property”
He added that if the proposed strike by oil workers was
founded on the allegations that government plans to sell
refineries, then they should sheath their sword.
A presidential audit of the country’s refineries led by a
former Minister of Finance, Kalu Idika Kalu, had
recommended the sale of the refineries due to
inadequate funding by government for “sub-optimal
performance.”
The four refineries, located in Warri, Kaduna and Port
Harcourt have a combined capacity of 445,000 bpd.
Former President Olusegun Obasanjo had tried to sell
off the Kaduna and Warri refineries, but the sale had
been reversed by the government of late Umaru Musa
Yar’Adua.

What mercylocious says was rightly confirmed.Read ahead below.

PremiumTimes
Reuben Abati said Mrs. Alison-Madueke cannot
approve the sale of the refineries.
Despite the statements of various government officials
including the Petroleum Minister, Diezani Alison-
Madueke, President Goodluck Jonathan has no plans to
and has not approved the sale of Nigeria’s four
refineries, presidential aide, Reuben Abati, said on
Thursday.
Mr. Abati also claimed the federal government had no
plans to privatise the refineries.
Mrs. Alison-Madueke had while speaking in an interview
with Bloomberg TV Africa in London in November said
that the refineries would be sold.
About a week after Mrs. Alison-Madueke’s interview,
Nigeria’s privatisation agency, the Bureau for Public
Enterprises, BPE, said it was working with Mrs. Alison-
Madueke’s petroleum ministry to privatise the refineries.
“We are working with the NNPC and Ministry of
Petroleum Resources on the privatisation of the four
refineries. We are just in the preliminary discussion with
them and very soon, we will make public the work plan
for the privatisation processes, including the
engagement of advisers to advise us on the transaction,”
Chigbo Anichebe, the spokesperson of the BPE said in a
statement.
“Once the work plan is fine-tuned, hopefully by the end
of the year or early January next year, the work plan as
well as the schedule will be unveiled to all stakeholders,
including the media.”
The statement by the two government officials directly
related to the privatisation has now been faulted by Mr.
Abati, who claims the president has no plan to privatise
the refineries.
Mr. Abati said this in an interview with journalists at the
Presidential Villa, Abuja, on Thursday,
Mr. Abati was reacting to the proposed strike by oil
workers, NUPENG, who threatened to embark on a
nationwide strike if the refineries are privatised. Any
strike by NUPENG would lead to scarcity of petroleum
products, and could worsen the popularity of the
Jonathan administration, which has been getting some
knocks from Nigerians over its policies.
The spokesperson said if the alleged plan to sell the
country’s refineries was the basis on which NUPENG
plans to go on strike, then there will be no dialogue by
the federal government as it had no such plans.
“Government is not going to sell any refineries. There is
no such plan and there is no presidential approval for
such,” Mr. Abati said. “Nobody, not even the minister of
petroleum has powers to sell any government property”
He added that if the proposed strike by oil workers was
founded on the allegations that government plans to sell
refineries, then they should sheath their sword.
A presidential audit of the country’s refineries led by a
former Minister of Finance, Kalu Idika Kalu, had
recommended the sale of the refineries due to
inadequate funding by government for “sub-optimal
performance.”
The four refineries, located in Warri, Kaduna and Port
Harcourt have a combined capacity of 445,000 bpd.
Former President Olusegun Obasanjo had tried to sell
off the Kaduna and Warri refineries, but the sale had
been reversed by the government of late Umaru Musa
Yar’Adua.

The proposed Dangote Sugar factory in Jigawa will
generate employment opportunities for no fewer than
15,000 people.
The Director-General, Jigawa State Advisory Council on
Economic, Management and Investment Promotion, Dr
Sagagi Muhammad, made this known in Dutse on
Thursday.
Sagagi, who spoke at the Public and Private Dialogue on
Investment Promotion and Facilitation, said the factory
which would be established in 2015 in Kaugama Local
Government.
The director-general said the sugar factory would
process 5000 tonnes of sugar cane daily, adding that
the factory would cover 20,000 hectares of land.

They are ready to offload
Off load what? some investors are just waking up to
the potential of Oando. There was a structure trade/
cross of 22.22m units of Oando today. Unlike FO,
Oando has been trading in high volumes and will
probably rise close to the all time high of N200 after
the close of the Conocophilips deal (That's about a $
1+).
A lot of investor were previously unsure about the
long term plan for the company, but Tinubu and Co
has since put their money where their mouth is; a
smooth transition to an upstream oil and gas
company will clearly vindicate their vision for the
company. Wale Tinubu would have earned the Deal
Maker/business man of the year award.

its seems Oando could still see some bullish run for those who believe that while some might be dumping they could be picking it and enjoy another bullish because oando bull is in stages.And we will see atleast three stages of bulls on oando to get it to #35-50 region as the deal would be certainly sealed by jan 31 and this will make it the biggest oil coy in d country with this upstream asset like Total france did and Eni also did.

Next week might see some profit taking based on the overbought region of some stocks like ubcap,afriprudential as its has even started today.

Well for me,i see uacn -prop getting to between #25-#30 this year like Presco did last year with great year end which made the stock ran from #15.70-24 and later to #38 last year.so i see this stock getting to #25-#30 before .......... based on increased dividend expectation this year with its strong fundamentals and good corporate governance practice such as consistent dividend policy and good mgt team.

Any fact please or is it just base on over-excitements like people did say on transcorp that it would get to #14,#20 etc as we all know transcorp never touch #7 b4 its bulls reversed.

Any fact please or is it just base on over-excitements like people did say on transcorp that it would get to #14,#20 etc.

Those of you saying oando is going to #35/40/45/55/60/80 what conviction do you all have?

Great people on this thread,can any tell me from technical point of view the position of ubcap & afriprudential bulls as per its expensiveness whether its too late to join or move elsewhere with ubcap@2.20 do you think this can go up to #5 or #7 unlike livestock did last year from #1.48-7.45.

To all my ogas in the house,where do you think Ubcap,afriprudential,oando will hit new support or when will profit takers come in.

Happy New year to all my ogas in d house.
oga dumexoga,do you still think japaul still has more places to go though u do say it but i turn deaf to it becos its is fundamentally weak by all parameters but well maybe fling sentiment is responsible for it movement.Though it has gone up by 8kobo please my oga dont you think joining now is already late maybe one should forget this and move to the next good stock like Dangote sugar at good entry.Goodnight oga.

a bad earning
season
Posted by: The Citizen in Company Review December
23, 2013
Airline Services & Logistics may post the lowest profit in
six years if its third quarter performance fails to
improve considerably at full year. A big drop in profit
happened in the third quarter and full year prospects
indicate a possible profit crash from the peak figure the
company recorded in 2012. Profit is under attack from
both declining revenue and rising cost.
The company’s turnover declined by 10.2% to N2.66
billion in the third quarter over the corresponding
period last year. The full year outlook is indicating that
revenue growth may step up in the final quarter due to
seasonal boost in economic activity. However a decline
in revenue still looks likely for the company at the end
of the year.
Based on the third quarter growth rate, turnover is
projected at N3.76 billion for the company in 2013.
That will be a slight decline from the turnover of N3.83
billion the company reported in 2012. The company
has not been able to achieve a reasonable growth in
revenue since 2010 when its turnover declined from
the 2009 peak of N3.84 billion. Its competitor, NAHCO
has not achieved a strong growth in turnover either but
has maintained a continuing growth over the past five
years.
Inability to grow revenue is undermining the profit
performance of the company. After tax profit fell by
82.6% in the third quarter to N79.3 million from N456
million in the corresponding quarter last year. The poor
performance isn’t expected to be remedied at full year.
After tax profit is projected at N112 million for the
company at full year. This is indicating that profit could
fall by more than 77% at the end of this year.
The company had grown after tax profit by about
105% to a peak of N492 million in 2012. It has had a
comparatively more stable profit performance than
NAHCO over the past five years but its stable earnings
record is very likely to be broken this year.
The big fall in the company’s profit follows both the
decline in revenue and inability to cut costs in line with
the revenue weakness. The main offensive cost element
is administrative cost, which grew by about 13% against
the 10.2% drop in turnover. It therefore had the
biggest adverse impact on the company’s bottom line
during the review period.
The company was able to keep cost of sales under
control, as it went down at equal pace with revenue.
Two other income lines declined during the period,
which also affected profit capacity. These are interest
income and other gains both of which declined in the
third quarter. Interest cost also declined during the
period.
The company has paid off its short-term borrowings of
about N65 million at the end of last year and has taken
a long-term loan of N530 million in the course of this
year. The company isn’t suffering the high interest
burden that is undermining the profit performance of
many companies this year.
Profit margin dropped significantly from 15.4% in the
corresponding period last year to 3.0% in the third
quarter. A net profit margin of 15.8% was recorded at
the end of last year. NAHCO recorded a far higher net
profit margin at 10% in the third quarter, which was
equally a decline from 13.3% in the corresponding
quarter last year.
The company earned 12 kobo per share at the end of
the third quarter, which is a drop from 72 kobo in the
corresponding period in 2012. Based on the full year
profit projection, the company is expected to earn 18
kobo per share at the end of this year. This will be a
major drop from the 78 kobo per share it posted at the
end of last year.
The company paid a dividend of 25 kobo per share at
the end of last year, which is above the earnings per
share it is expected to generate at the end of this year.
Either there will be a drop in dividend per share or the
company will declare a dividend holiday.
A drop in dividend looks more likely for the company as
it has a record of regular dividend payment. The
company has retained earnings of about N1.5 billion
that can be applied to support a higher dividend
payment than current earnings.
The company’s cash flow has come under pressure
from both operating and investing activities. Net cash
flow generated from operating activities dropped from
N734 million in the corresponding period last year to
N224 million at the end of September. Net cash flow
used for investing activities rose from N25 million to
N308 million over the same period. The company had
to raise new money from borrowing to cover the
financing gap.

www.morgancapitalgroup.com
Here is the link oga.

Happy New Year to all my teachers,lecturers,guadians on this platform,i say a big thank you to you all.May this 2014 be more rewarding than ever for all of us on our nija bourse.
Mercylicious please how is service efficiency of morgancapital cos i want to swap to morgancapital soonest and how fast is their trade execution and do they reply mails or mandates promptly.Also,are they good in getting a stock cheaper for clients than others as compared to investment one that i currently use,even though investment one is very good by all parameters but they are not super for me interms of getting stock bought for me at my baba-ijebu price limit as being a proud value hunter.Advice is also needed from all my ogas in the house to contribute in helping your SON.

Thank you born2 to be rich,i so much appreciate your response indeed.I also love your quitessential example and elderly role on this thread.More grease to your elbow.More success on our investment theme in year 2014.please i want to ask,do you think buying oando late at 25-26 will not be too expensive and if so,can oando touch #50 or #70 realistically b4 january 24 or before conoco philips deal is sealed.Be free to me,dont worry about anything becos any decision i take base on whatever u may say will be at my discretion.Thank you.